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Global and Local Peaks in Oil and Gas Production

James S Jackson

Department of Geology

Portland State University

Portland, Oregon


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Source: Simmons EIA

1980

2005

ANS

Brent

WTI

Arab Heavy

Arab Light

Orinoco

Athabascan

50403020100

3.0

2.0

1.0

0

Bitumin Heavy Super LightIntermediate Light

Oil Gravity versus Sulfur Content

4.0

4.5

Conventional Oil


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Source: API Valero

HeavyFuelOil

Distillate

Gasoline


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M King Hubbert (1969)

US Oil Consumption

World Oil Consumption

Source: US Ener Resources 1972 US GPO


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Lower 48 production as of 2001


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World Production as of 2001


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Hypothetical HubbertCurveof Global Oil Consumption

1900 2000 2100

40

30

20

10

0

Produced Oil

Proven Reserves

Undiscovered

Oil

Annual Consumption


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Original ReservesRemaining Reserves

Proven Reserves


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Proven Reserves


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1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

10

0

20

30

40

50

60

Oil Discoveries 1930 to 2010

Undiscovered Oil


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Source: USGS

Undiscovered Oil


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http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html

3,595 B Bbl

3,003 B Bbl

2,248 B Bbl

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 21250

30

60

90

EIA World Conventional Oil Production Scenarios

Decline Resource/Production = 10

Annual Consumption


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1900 2000 2100

40

30

20

10

0

40 yrs


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Global Peak Oil Forecasts

Multidisciplinary task

Precise forecast problematic

Peak oil likely within 0 to 40 years


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All geology is localKevin Burke

Oil is our patrimonyBolivian geologist 1990

Some post-peak oil producing countries:

United States United Kingdom

Indonesia Egypt

Argentina France Iran Russia


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Mexico

Produces 3.4 MMBOPD

Exports to US 1.6 MMBOPD

Pemex contributes 40% of state revenues

Cantarell contributes 57% of Pemex oilCantarell contributes 24% of state revenues


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Source: Pemex


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Pemex


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Will the Mexican governmentsustain Pemexs capital program?

When will Pemexs oil production decline?


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Indonesia

Produces 1 MMBPD crude oil

Imports 0.250 MMBPD fuel

OPEC member since 1962

Source IEA, Finanznachrichten


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Source: EIA

1.0

1.5

0.5

0

1992 1996 2000 20041994 1998 2002 2006E

Consumption

Production

Indonesian Oil Production and Consumption

0Wholesale Kerosene Price

2000

1000

1500

500


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Can Indonesia attract exploration andproduction capital to stem decliningproduction?

Can Indonesia bring its fuel market in

line with global prices?

Will Indonesia compete with the US in

the Pacific market?


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Western Europe Gas Production Peak

1948 Gas imports to Poland from Russia

1965 LNG imports to France and UK

1969 Gas imports to Austria from Russia

1974 Gas imports to Germany-Italy from Russia

1978 LNG imports from Algeria

1983 Transmed pipeline Algeria to Italy

1996 Gaz Maghgreb pipeline Algeria to Spain


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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: UK DTI


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Dutch GasProduction

20041994198419741964

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Gronigen Field

Other Fields


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htt ://euro a.eu.int/comm/ener / as/worksho 2002/doc/external commission/10. df


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Will Europe successfully diversify

its gas supply?

Will Europe compete with the US in

the Atlantic LNG market?


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Implications for US Energy Policy

Conserve limited resources

Support research for alternative energy

sources

Recognize sovereignty of HC resources

Support global conservation and research

Do no harm to the markets


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Acknowledgments:

ARCO: Denny Tower, Bob Olson, Tom Arthur,John Grace, Chris Moore, Paul LaPointe

PSU: Ansel Johnson, Mike CummingsWAF Oregon: Michael Carnahan


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Thank You

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