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Tony SebaStanford University
NYC 5th Av.
1900
US.National Archivies
Tony SebaStanford University
NYC 5th Av.
1913
US.National Archivies
1898 New York
watervat.blogspot.it/
60% GDP
50% Population
20% Italy’s Surface
4M 5M 9M
*WWF Italia
Po Valley
*Censimento Istat
Milano1971 1.750.000
1971 8.543.000
2011 1.250.000
2011 9.704.000
1971 1.160.000
1971 4.430.000
2011 870.000
2011 4.360.000
Lombardia
Torino
Piemonte
Urban Sprawl
*Motorizzazione Civile
**WWF Italia
1980
10km/D0,38
2007
20km/D0,58
2017
25km/D0,62
*Car/Person(North Italy)
**km/Day(average
North Italy)
PM 2,5 PM 1
Criteria
Pollution
PM
SO2
NOx
CO
Pb
VOC
PM 10
PM 10 Deposit in the extra thoracic
upper tracheo-branchial
region
PM 2,5 Deposit in deeper lung
PM 1 Pass in the circulatory
system
(Source:*Inventario Regionale Emissioni Atmosfera)
40%
19%
17%
10%
4%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
PM 2,5North
Italy
2015*
PM 2,51990-2015*
60%
40%
20%
0
-20%
-40%
-60%
Thermal Inversion
*Image NASA
200ppm
410ppm
2100
2018
1800
100.000 Y 300 Y
800ppm
50 kg = 157 kWh 157 kWh = 1.570 kg
700 km
0,28 kg/kWh 10 kg/kWh
=
Moore’s Law
TB
2004 2014 2024
32
32.000 32.000.000
Gordon Moore
1965
2 hour
100/day
1 year
1000/day
100 year
300180
100 30
3
10
*$/kWh
*kg/kWh
24.000$
800 kg
2.400$
240 kg
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
14.500$
560 kg
8.000$
440 kg
-90%
75,5
-70%
2015 2020 2030 204080
kWh
A lifespan of 135,000 miles is the figure used for US midsize cars by the UCS in their 2015 report, Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave. The Dutch TNO’s
lifespan assumption (used for these calculations) is a shade longer: 220,000 km (or 136,700 mi).
*Thalia Verkade
Well to Wheels
*Total Lifetime CO2 emission
50 tonn
35 tonn
18 tonn
Pump to WheelsWell to Pump
Sustainability
Software & Internet
Computing & Electronic
Healthcare
Automotive
*Source: Bloomberg
16,1
13,9
12,7
12,7
12,1
12,0
11,4
10,1
10,0
9,6
9,3
9,1
7,3
9,1
7,9
*201715 Top
R&DSpender
B$
ADAS Autonomous Driving Assistant System
1900-19580 1 1958-2010 2 2010-2017
3 2017-2025 4 2025-2040 5 2040
Powertrain-Chassis
Body-Trim
Electric-Electronics
Software*McKinsey
60%
35%
5%
2000
40% 40%
12% 3%
2010
30% 30% 25%15%
2025
20% 20% 30% 30%
2040
Image Iain Macmillan
1900
200.000
3.500.000 8.000.000
4.000.000
200
1/17.500
1/1000
344
1/23.250
1/46.500
1/428.000
9.000.000
1.000.000
1/46.500
21
NYC
2003
NYC
2040
NYC
watervat.blogspot.it/
-
1900 2003 2040
0,05*Dead/billion km
3,1*Dead/billion km 620/1
*UK Transportation Dept.
Digitalization
1
8
122100
2020
1800
41975
21925
31960
100.000 300
20%
80%
1800
70%
30%
2018
80%
20%
2100
*Source :UN
*2030 34 Megacities 15% World population
*50% of World population lives on 1% on the dry land
19502030
ImageGoogle inc.
*Source :UN
Web
Web
120.000 jobs/sqkm
27.000 pp/sqkm
141.000 jobs/sqkm
London (City)
peak density
UK Census 2011
59.000 pp/sqkm
151.000 jobs/sqkm
NYC (Upper East side)
peak density
US Census 2010
111.000pp/sqkm
Hong Kong (West Kowloon)
peak density
HK Census 2006
August 14th, 2010,
11 days traffic jam.
China,
National Highway 110
Los Angeles 170h
New York 129h
Moscow 127h
Rome 97h
Source: Tom Tom
*Source: INRIX Transportation Institute
USA&Europe
Cost of traffic
congestion
2013-2030*
(Billions US Dollars)$480B$469B $2.800B$691B
$30B $33B $44B $186B2030
$3.100 $3.200 $2.900 $2.3002030
Urbanization
2040VisionMobility
DigitalizationSustainability
Future Mobility business model
Hardware Software App Store ApplicationTelecom
Supplier
OEM
Tier 1 Supplier
(System)
Tier 2 Supplier
(modules or component)
Tier 3 Supplier
(raw materials, intermediate goods)
Source: A.T. Kearney 2016
Disintermediation
OEM
IT
Partner
Online Partner
Telecom Partner
Tier-X Supplier
Device
Manufacturers
*A.T. Kearney 2016
*500 Billion $/Year
2040 Vision Mobilty
1020 $ 550 $ 784 $
London (City)
monthly parking rates
NYC (Time Square)
monthly parking rates
Hong Kong (ICC)
monthly parking rates
* Source: Colliers Inter. * Source: Colliers Inter. * Source: Colliers Inter.
1h/day 30km/day
250.000 km 23 Years
12h/day 720 km/day
250.000 km 350 Days
30
24/1
17M
10M
10M
2018 2040
240M
*Deloitte University press
2018
Image thanks to J. Jungwirt, CDO VW Group
20182040
Image thanks to J. Jungwirt, CDO VW Group
2018
Image thanks to J. Jungwirt, CDO VW Group
20182040
Image thanks to J. Jungwirt, CDO VW Group
2040 Vision Mobilty
*World
Ageing
Population
Over 601990-2100
*Source: UN
Dept. of Economic and Social affair
1990 2020 2050 2100
3,1B
27%
2,1B
21%
1B
15%
0,5B
10%
2040 Vision Mobilty
*Forecast
total miles
drive in
USA
timeline
2020 2025 2035 2040
99%
80%
*Deloitte University press
100%
100%
50%
50%
Dead/year
(X 1000)(μg/m3)
**20.000 €
6 Year (4.000 € final value)
12.000 km/Year
0,500,25
50
10
37
1030
60
$/km**km/haverage
2018 2040
*Deloitte University press
Forecast
benefit
for ADAS
USA*
NewMobility
Issues
Battery production and recycling
ADAS Technology
Infrastructure
Legal & Liability
Political lobbyng
