iris presentation - voter analytics video site... · 2017. 11. 28. · iris presentation | 4}...
TRANSCRIPT
IRISFallMeetingToronto
September22,2017
VoterAnalytics
IRISPresentation|2
} MarketEnvironment
} AnalyticsatEMC
} VoterAnalytics
} FloridaCaseStudy
} RoleofResearchinAnalytics
Content
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} Traditional“research”ismergingwith“analytics”
} CompaniesarereleasingmarketresearchRFPsthataskdirectlyforanalyticsandmodeling
} Analyticsfirmsareofferingsurveyresearchservices
} Firmsthatusedtobecomplementaryarenowcompetitors
} MRAmergedwithCASROtobecometheInsightsAssociation,representingthe“marketresearchandanalyticsindustry”
MarketEnvironment
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} Focusedonvoteranalysis,targetingindividualvoters
} Firstelectoralmodelbuiltanddeliveredtoacampaignin2013
} Grewin2016,respondingtodemandandcompetition
} Twoprimaryproductareas§ ModelingandScoring
o Dataminingo Eventmodelingo Survey-assistedmodeling
§ Datavisualizationo Mappingo Dynamicreporting/webapplications
} Additionalproductsindevelopmentandlookingforopportunitiestointroducetocorporateclients
AnalyticsatEMC
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} Datapreparation§ Requirestheentiredatabaseofvotersforanelectoraljurisdiction§ Mustbe“enhanced”withdetaileddemographicandsocioeconomic
information§ Additionalconsumerinformation,behaviorsandattitudinalmodels
arealsodesired
} Creatingpredictivescores§ Buildanindividuallevelmodelwithmachine-learningalgorithms§ Predictafutureevent,i.e.,turnout§ Incorporatesurveydatatoprojectsurveyresponsestotheentire
databaseofvoters
} Developsegmentationswithdataminingandclusteringtechniquesusingthesamedata
} Primarydeliverablesarescoresandclassificationsuploadedtoavoterdatabaseandconsultationonuse
VoterAnalytics
FloridaCaseStudy
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FloridaHistoricalVoterRegistrationbyPartyThenumberofOtherpartyregistrants hasrisenconsiderablyinthelastdecade.
35%35%35%36%36%38%38%39%39%40%41%Republican
Voters42%
38%39%40%41%42%40%41%42%43%45%46%
DemocratVoters49%
27%26%25%23%22%22%21%
19%17%15%
13%OtherVoters9%
201620142012201020082006200420022000199819961994
DatagatheredfromFloridaDivisionofElectionswebsite
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DemocraticVotersbyCountyTheTallahasseeareahasthehighestconcentrationofregisteredDemocraticvoters inthestate.
RegisteredDemocraticvoters:
4,366,424(36.9%)
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RepublicanVotersbyCountyRepublicanvotersareconcentratedincountiesthroughout, butespeciallyinthewesternPanhandle
region.
RegisteredRepublicanvoters:
4,265,763(36.1%)
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OtherParty/Non-AffiliatedVotersbyCountyIndependentandnon-affiliatedvotersarefoundthroughout theSouthern CoastalandCentral
regionsofthestate.
RegisteredOtherParty/Non-Affiliatedvoters:3,188,757(27.0%)
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RegisteredDemocrat– RepublicanVotersDifferentialDemocratsaremostconcentratedinthepopulationcentersacrossthestate,whileRepublicansare
foundmostdenselyintheruralcountiesofthestate.
RegisteredDemocraticvoters:4,366,424(36.9%)
RegisteredRepublicanvoters:4,265,763(36.1%)
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FloridaSenateHistoricalPartyPerformance
DatagatheredfromFloridaDivisionofElectionswebsite
DemocraticCandidate
30%
63%
51%
48%
60%
20%
55%
44%
RepublicanCandidate71%
38%
46%
49%
38% 49%42%
52%
OtherCandidate 0% 3% 2% 2%
31%
3% 4%
1994General
1998General
2000General
2004General
2006General
2010General
2012General
2016General
66%turnout
49%turnout
70%turnout
74%turnout
47%turnout
49%turnout
72%turnout
75%turnout
Statewideperformanceofcandidatesvarygreatlyovertime.
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2016RubioSenateVoteMurphyonlyoutperformedRubiointhemajorurbancentersofthestate,whileRubiotookruraland
suburban counties.
Murphy:4,122,088(44.3%)Rubio:4,835,191(52.0%)
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2016TrumpPresidentialVoteClintonperformedbetteragainstTrumpthan2016’sDemocraticcandidateforSenate,Murphy,with
highproportions ofthevoteinurbancountiesandabetterperformanceinsuburban counties.
Clinton:4,504,975(47.8%)Trump:4,617,886(49.0%)
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FloridaTurnoutOverTime
66%
67%
49%
70%
55%
74%
47%
75%
49%
72%
51%
75%
53%*
Nov'94
Nov'96
Nov'98
Nov'00
Nov'02
Nov'04
Nov'06
Nov'08
Nov'10
Nov'12
Nov'14
Nov'16
Nov'18(*Projected)
Projectedturnout for2018isslightlyhigherthan2014turnout.
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FloridaLikely2018GeneralElectionTurnoutTheturnoutmodelprojectsthat53%ofallFloridavoterswillvoteinthe2018general.ThishistogramshowsthenumberofregisteredFloridavoterswitheachscore,from0to100.
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2016VoterTurnoutTheshareofvotersturningoutwashighestinCollier,BakerandFranklincounties.
2016Voterturnout:9,580,489voters
NumberofVoters [NumberofCounties]
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2018GeneralElectionTurnoutScorebyCountySumter,Liberty,andJeffersoncountieshavethehighestturnout scoresfor2018.
Allregisteredvoters:11,820,944
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2018TurnoutScore– 2016TurnoutDifferentialbyCountyOsceolaCountyhasthegreatestnegativeturnout differential,whileprojected2018turnout inthe
Tallahasseeareaisclosesttothatrecordedin2016.
Allregisteredvoters:11,820,944
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} Allregisteredvotersinthestateweresegmentedwithaclusteringalgorithmtoidentifynaturalgroupingsinthedata.
} Eightgroupswerediscoveredusingthefollowingattitudinalinformation:– Politicalideology– Religiouspreference– Campaignfinanceattitudes– Climatechangeattitudes– Collegeaffordabilityattitudes– Governmentsurveillanceandprivacyattitudes– Guncontrolattitudes– Minimumwageattitudes– Paidleaveattitudes– Pathtocitizenshipforimmigrantsattitudes– Women’srighttochooseattitudes– Progressivetaxationattitudes
ProfilingVoters
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Turnout PartyLoyaltyAgreementwithProgressiveIssues
EstablishmentLiberals
LiberalCatholics
Working-ClassProgressives
Great SocietyRetirees
UnalignedIndependents
TemperateConservatives
ConservativeCatholics
ConservativeStalwarts
VoterProfileGridThefollowingtableillustrateshoweachsegmentcomparesalongthreesignificantdimensions.
ColorScaleHighMediumLow
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EstablishmentLiberalsbyCountyEstablishmentLiberalsaremostlyconcentratedintheTallahasseeandGainesvilleareas.
RegisteredEstablishmentLiberalvoters:
1,600,567(13.5%)
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LiberalCatholicsbyCountyLiberalCatholicsaremostlyconcentratedintheMiami-Dadearea.
RegisteredLiberalCatholicvoters:
1,356,280(11.5%)
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Working-ClassProgressivesbyCountyWorking-Class Progressivesaremostlyfoundinthecountiessurrounding theTallahasseearea.
RegisteredWorking-ClassProgressivevoters:1,392,877(11.8%)
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GreatSocietyRetireesbyCountyGreatSocietyRetireesareconcentratedintwosetsofcounties:Citrus,Hernando,andSumter;and
Sarasota, Charlotte,GladesandHighlandscounties.
RegisteredGreatSocietyRetireevoters:1,027,708(8.7%)
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UnalignedIndependentsbyCountyUnalignedIndependentsareconcentrated inFranklinandLibertycounties.
RegisteredUnalignedIndependent voters:2,342,966(19.8%)
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TemperateConservativesbyCountyTemperateConservativesareconcentratedmosthighlyinSumterCounty.
RegisteredTemperateConservativevoters:1,865,190(15.8%)
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ConservativeCatholicsbyCountyMiami-DadeCountycontainsthehighestconcentrationofConservativeCatholicvoters.
RegisteredConservativeCatholicvoters:626,432(5.3%)
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ConservativeStalwartsbyCountyThePanhandleregioncontainsthehighestconcentrationofConservativeStalwart votersinthestate.
RegisteredConservativeStalwartvoters:1,608,924(13.6%)
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} Theroleoftheresearchindustryinanalytics§ Advice,interpretationandconsulting§ Developmentofcustomtoolsandmassmarketproducts
Discussion