investor presentation - nutrien...presentation, other than those relating to historical information...
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Investor PresentationSeptember 2018
Forward Looking Statements
Certain statements and other information included in this presentation constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable
securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", “forecast”, "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). All statements in this
presentation, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: Nutrien's 2018 annual and second half guidance, including
expectations regarding our EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA (both consolidated and by segment); expectations regarding dividends per share and other shareholder returns in 2018; expectations regarding
net proceeds to be realized from the on-going sale of equity interests; capital spending expectations for 2018; expectations regarding performance of our business segments in 2018; our market outlook for
2018, including potash, nitrogen and phosphate outlook and including anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient
application rates, planted acres, crop mix, prices and margin; expectations regarding completion of previously announced expansion projects (including timing and volumes of production associated
therewith) and acquisitions and divestitures; and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp, including timing thereof. These forward-looking statements are subject to a
number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance
should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.
All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this
document. Although Nutrien believes that these assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place
an undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to Nutrien's
ability to successfully integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of its already completed (including the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp) and future acquisitions, and that we will be able to implement
our standards, controls, procedures and policies at any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expected
by Nutrien, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion of
our expansion projects on schedule, as planned and on budget; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2018 and in the future; the
adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions
and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; ability to maintain investment grade rating and achieve our performance targets; assumptions in respect of our ability to sell equity positions, including the
ability to find suitable buyers at expected prices and successfully complete such transactions in a timely manner; the receipt, on time, of all necessary permits, utilities and project approvals with respect to
our expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects’ approach.
Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business
conditions; the failure to successfully integrate and realize the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp, including within the expected timeframe; weather conditions,
including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory
requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy, government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the
interpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation
and security risks related to our systems; the inability to find suitable buyers for our equity positions and counterparty and transaction risk associated therewith; regional natural gas supply restrictions;
counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions at our Egyptian and Argentinian facilities; any significant impairment of the carrying value
of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work
stoppages; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Agrium, PotashCorp and Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the
United States, including those disclosed in Nutrien’s business acquisition report dated February 20, 2018, related to the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp. The purpose of our expected adjusted
consolidated EBITDA and EBITDA by segment guidance range is to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other
purposes.
Non-IFRS Financial Measures Advisory
We consider net earnings from continuing operations before finance costs, income tax (recovery) expense and depreciation and amortization("EBITDA"), adjusted net earnings per share, free cash flow,
Nutrien combined 2017 historical information and adjusted EBITDA, and other measures deriving from such non-IFRS measures, all of which are non-IFRS financial measures, to provide useful information
to both management and investors in measuring our financial performance and financial condition. Refer to the disclosure under the heading “Selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations
and Supplemental Information” included in our news release dated August 1, 2018 announcing our second quarter 2018 results, as filed on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and EDGAR at www.sec.gov under
our corporate profile, for a reconciliation of these non-IFRS measures to the most directly comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS and for a further discussion of how these measures are
calculated and their usefulness to users including management. Non-IFRS financial measures are not recognized measures under IFRS and our method of calculation may not be comparable to that of
other companies. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. The purpose of our
adjusted annual earnings per share and adjusted consolidated EBITDA guidance ranges is to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be
appropriate for other purposes.
Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicable
U.S. federal securities laws or applicable Canadian securities legislation.
2
September 12, 2018
Presentation Outline 3
1 Nutrien Overview
2 Market Fundamentals and Performance
3
1
Strategy and Opportunities
September 12, 2018
Nutrien Has a Unique Global Footprint and Well Positioned Assets
4
LEGEND:
RETAIL
POTASH
NITROGEN
PHOSPHATE
ESN®
GRANULATION
LOVELAND PRODUCTS AND AFFILIATED FACILITIES
AGRICHEM
INVESTMENTS AND JV’S
OFFICES
South AmericaNorth American Integrated Footprint
Australia
>26MmtCombined sales tonnes of potash,
nitrogen, phosphate & sulfate1
$500MExpected annual
synergies by end of 2019
$1.60Annual dividend
per share2
~1,600Retail locations in 7 countries
5%NCIB in place
through February 2019
September 12, 2018NOTE: European distribution and our ownership stakes in Sinofert and the MOPCO nitrogen facility are not included on these maps.
1 2017 sales volume excluding sales tonnes from Conda and North Bend.
2 Based on Nutrien quarterly dividend declared July 19, 2018. Future dividends subject to board discretion.
~33%
~25%~7%
~35%
Diversified Portfolio Provides Stability and Multiple Avenues for Growth
5
Retail
Phosphate
and Sulfate Nitrogen
Potash
2017 Adjusted Combined
EBITDA Split1,2
1 Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as net (loss) earnings from continuing operations before finance costs, income tax (recovery) expense and depreciation and amortization, merger and related costs, and
impairment losses. See “non-IFRS measures” in Nutrien’s second quarter results press release.
2 Reflects adjusted EBITDA, which is derived from historical financial information of PotashCorp and Agrium and does not include the effects of a) intersegment eliminations, b) the equity earnings and
operating results of completed or anticipated divestitures in connection with the merger, or c) the impairment charge related to Phosphate, and merger-related costs. Determination of adjusted combined
EBITDA required allocation of historical amounts on a basis consistent with how Nutrien will report financial information in the future. This information does not purport to project the future operating results of
Nutrien, and is not necessarily indicative of what Nutrien’s results of operations would have been had the merger been completed on January 1, 2017.
3 Based on the mid-point of Nutrien’s adjusted EBITDA guidance range as of August 1, 2018.
2018F Adjusted EBITDA GrowthUS$ Billions
Significant earnings growth expected across all business units in 2018
September 12, 2018
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Nitrogen 2018FRetail2017 Potash Phos &
Other
~30-35%
3
Significant Opportunity to Grow the Company and Return Cash to Shareholders
6
Merger Synergies
$500 Millionannual run-rate expected to be
achieved by end of 2019
Crop Nutrient
Leverage
~$650 Million increase in EBITDA from a
$25/mt improvement in prices
Retail Stability
$50-$140 Million expected Retail EBITDA
growth per year
Equity Proceeds
~$5 Billionnet proceeds from divestitures
expected by end of 2018
Return Cash to
Shareholders(~$2.6B expected
cash returned in
2018)
Invest in
Growth(Focus on growing Retail,
opportunistic Wholesale
expansion)
Protect
Balance Sheet(Strong investment
grade rating BBB/Baa2)
Capital Priorities
Expect to have $6-8 billion in cash to redeploy over the next 3 years
Source: Nutrien
1 Through NCIB and dividends.
September 12, 2018
Invest in
Growth(Focus on growing Retail,
opportunistic Wholesale expansion)
Return Cash
to Shareholders(~$2.6B expected cash
returned in 2018)1
Protect
Balance Sheet(Strong investment
grade rating BBB/Baa2)
Market Fundamentals and Performance
INVESTOR PRESENTATION September 12, 2018
Cash Grower Margins 8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans
Cash Grower Margins1
Local Currency Margin/Acre
SOURCE: USDA, Green Markets, CME GROUP, IMEA, Nutrien1 2016 and 2017 margins are based on average realized cash crop prices and estimated average fertilizer costs; 2018F margins are based on new crop 2018 futures prices less estimated basis and estimated average retail fertilizer prices; 2019F margins are based on new crop 2019 futures prices less estimated basis and estimated spot retail fertilizer prices; Brazilian grower margins are based on IMEA cost of production and price estimates for Mato Grosso.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Prospective 2019 margins supportive of input demand, expect growth in US corn and
Brazilian soybean acreage
September 12, 2018
Consistent growth in EBITDA margins achieved through Operational Excellence
initiatives including proprietary product growth and footprint optimization
Retail: Long Term Growth of Margins and Earnings 9
$769
$951 $986$1,119
$1,033 $1,091 $1,1457.5%
8.3% 8.3%
8.6%8.5%
9.3%9.5%
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
EBITDA Retail EBITDA Margin $1.2-1.3B
Retail EBITDA MarginPercent
Retail EBITDA
Millions
Source: Nutrien September 12, 2018
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Relatively Tight Potash Supply & Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Demand Growth @ 3.0%/yr
Demand Growth @ 2.8%/yr
Operational Capability
Global Potash S&DMillion Tonnes KCl
Global Utilization Rate1
Percent
Expect demand growth and capacity closures to offset capacity additions;
operating rates expected to be at or above historical average
Demand Growth @ 2.8%/yr*
Demand Growth @ 3.0%/yr*
Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien
1 Based on estimated operational capability. * Demand growth based on 20 year CAGR 2002 to 2022
10
September 12, 2018
Tightening Global Nitrogen Supply & Demand 11
Global Nitrogen S&DMillion Tonnes Nitrogen
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 Demand Operational Capability
Relatively stable capacity utilization in 2019 followed by rapid tightening
Global Utilization Rate1
Percent
Source: CRU, Nutrien1 Based on estimated operational capability.* Demand growth based on 20 year CAGR 2002 to 2022
Demand Growth @ 2.0%/yr*
September 12, 2018
Strategy and Opportunities
INVESTOR PRESENTATION September 12, 2018
Executing on Our Strategic Priorities 13
• Achieved $246M of run-rate synergies as at
June 30, 2018
• Completed divestment of ICL and SQM B shares,
agreements in place for APC & SQM A Shares
• Strong Retail proprietary products performance
and acquisition execution
• Launched integrated digital platform for growers
• Declared annualized dividend of $1.60/share1
• Repurchased 29.3 million shares year-to-date2
under existing 5% NCIBShareholder
Returns
Growth
Initiatives
Integration &
Synergies
Year-to-date Achievements
September 12, 20181 Based on Nutrien’s quarterly dividend declared on July 19, 2018. Future dividend subject to board discretion.
2 As at Aug 1, 2018.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2018E 2018E + Full Synergies @ 8 yr Avg. Nutrient Prices @ Replacement Cost Nutrient Prices
$3.9 – $4.2B
EBITDA
$6.5 – $7.0B
EBITDA
$10 – $11B
EBITDA
Proceeds of
~5.0B
expected
from equity
stake sales
Significant Upside Potential for Free Cash Flow per Share
14
(1) (2)
2018E Sustaining Capex
Incremental EBITDA
1 Assumes synergies of $500MM per year by end of 2019.
2 Assumes 2018 sales volumes at Average of 8-Year (2010 – 2017) prices for: US Cornbelt MOP ($437/mt), Tampa DAP ($482/mt.) and NOLA urea ($361/mt).
3 Replacement cost nutrient prices assumed are: US Cornbelt MOP ($605/mt), Tampa DAP ($540/mt) and NOLA Urea ($480/mt).
4 Free Cash Flow defined as: Cash flow from continuing operations before net changes in non-cash working capital less sustaining capital. Assumes 612M shares issued and outstanding.
Potential mid-cycle free cash flow per share provides tremendous near & long-term
opportunity for shareholders
Nutrien EBITDA & FCF Sensitivity to Nutrient Price IncreasesUS$ Billions
~$3
FCF/sh(4)
~$8.00
FCF/sh(4)
(3)
~$13.00
FCF/sh(4)
September 12, 2018
Nutrien Provides Unique Investment Opportunity in the Agriculture Sector
15
Leading position in both retail/distribution (stable & growing earnings base) and
crop nutrient production
Unmatched upside to a recovery in crop nutrient markets -
$25/mt improvement in nutrient prices expected to generate ~$650M in EBITDA
Clear line of sight on expected $500M in annual operating synergies;
$246M run rate achieved as at June 30, 2018
Significant free cash flow expected to provide opportunity for meaningful
shareholder returns
September 12, 2018
Appendix
INVESTOR PRESENTATION September 12, 2018
Nutrien is the Global Leader in Crop Inputs
34
12 12 12 11
7.24.2
3.8
Nutrien YAR MOS CF FMC ICL K+S PAH
17
Market CapitalizationUS$ Billions1
1 Market capitalization as of September 5, 201.8September 12, 2018
Highly confident in achieving run-rate synergies of $500 million by the end of 2019;
2018 year-end target increased to $350 million
Significant Value Creation from Merger Synergies
$68
$246$82
$60
$43
$75
$254
$65
$57
$50
$150
$125
$100
$125 $500
Distribution/Optimization
ProductionOptimization
Procurement SG&A 2019 Target EOY
Achieved run-rate synergy as at June 30, 2018
Balance of synergy target
++
+
Run-Rate SynergiesUS$ Millions
18
September 12, 2018Source: Nutrien
Nutrien Retail Provides Full Solutions Offering to the Grower
19
Billions invested to ensure on time delivery & highest level of
service, advice & technology solutions
Bulk Fertilizer Distribution
• >3.5MMt of storage capacity globally
• Custom blending at many locations
• Unmatched product availability and timeliness
• >1,300 storage and distribution sites across
North America
Seed Solutions
• On-site seed treatment and bulk handling
• Access to a wide selection of brands &
genetics without bias
Application Services
• We apply fertilizer & crop protection products on ~60% of our U.S. customer acreage
• 10th largest rolling stock in the U.S.
Crop Protection Products
• Bulk product handling and blending – can be delivered within hours
• >10,000 products to protect >200 crops• >99% of sales are branded products• ~25% of sales are high-margin proprietary
products
Complete Advice & Services
• ~3,300 agronomists and crop advisers• Extensive collective expertise & training• Financial Services and lending
Innovation and Technology
• Launched integrated digital platform in 2018• Access to leading edge new technology• Backward integration with emerging
technology companies
Source: Nutrien September 12, 2018
Nutrien Has Multiple Avenues to Deliver Strong Retail Earnings Growth
20
TUCK-IN/ROLL UP
Continue to acquire farm centers across North America and Australia
PROPRIETARY PRODUCT
Increase our proprietaryproduct offerings & sales
AG CREDIT FINANCE
Expand the credit & finance businessearnings, retain & attract new customers
BRAZILIAN AG-RETAIL
Build the retail business, leveraging ourproven strengths and experience
DIGITAL PLATFORM
Deliver a world-class integrated platformthat supports growers ease of business
Grow
Build
Expand
Increase
Deliver
Nutrien
Ag Solutions
Strategy
September 12, 2018
Retail: A Leading Agricultural Solutions Provider
Gross Margin (2017)Billions
Crop Nutrients 29%
Crop Protection 40%
Seed 11%
Services/Other 16%
$2.9B
Crop inputs & services for over 50
different crops
Corn, 24%
Wheat, 17%
Soybean, 16%
Canola, 9%
Cotton, 7%
Perm. Crops, 8%
Veg, 5%
All Other, 14%
Providing everything growers need to
maximize yields – 3,300 crop advisors
Broad Crop Diversity Complete Ag Solutions Offering
Merchandise 4%
Proprietary Products
Consistent growth platform of higher
margin products valued by growers
1 Excludes Dalgety animal health products.
Gross Margin1 (2017)Millions
Revenue by CropPercent
Source: Nutrien
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Proprietary Seed
Proprietary Nutrional Products
Proprietary Crop Protection Products
21
September 12, 2018
Retail Network Optimization – Tuck-ins, Targeted Builds & Closures
22
1 Does not include revenue from equity positions in joint ventures.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017YTD
2018Total
# of Locations Acquired 33 59 22 32 26 76 44 34 326
Annual Sales1
(U.S. millions)$210 $477 $128 $192 $190 $500+ ~$300 ~$300 >$2,500
Annual EBITDA (U.S. millions) (Year 1)
$27 $49 $12 $32 $20 ~$35 ~$23 ~$27 >$230
166
233 255
325
401
541
606
699
-80
20
120
220
320
420
520
620
720
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cumulative Store Closures U.S. Canada Australia South America
22
70
76
Tuck-in Acquisitions
Cumulative Global Store Closures
& Consolidations
38 Major ‘Hub’ Locations Across
the U.S.
Source: NutrienSeptember 12, 2018
Retail: Multiple Levers Driving EBITDA Growth 23
$75
$75
$75
North America,
53%
International, 47%
Retail EBITDA Growth DriversPercent (2012-2017)
Source: Nutrien
Retail EBITDA Growth by RegionPercent (2012-2017)
Acquisitions, ~40%
Organic Growth, ~30%
Optimization, ~30%
September 12, 2018
Retail Earnings Growth Drivers
1. Acquisitions/greenfield in existing markets & Brazilian growth potential (Agrichem)
2. Continued expansion of proprietary product lines & digital ag capabilities
3. Optimization/Cost reduction - optimize footprint and leverage procurement scale
Significant Room for Further U.S. Retail Consolidation
Source: CropLife and Internal Estimates
Agrium, 17%
Helena, 7%
Significant market
share held by
independent
retailers in the U.S.
Our share in other
key regions is ~30%
Growmark, 5%
Wilbur-Ellis, 4%
Pinnacle, 4%
CHS, 3%
Simplot Retail, 2%
Independents, 26%
Co-ops, 30%
Nutrien, 19%
Helena, 7%
Over 19% market share with only 10% of the facilities
24
September 12, 2018
Crop Nutrient Production: Large and Diverse Asset Base
25
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate &Sulfate
Potash
NitrogenUS 64%
Canada19%
Offshore17%
North America
39%
Offshore61%
, 0 , 0
Phosphate
& SulfateUS 50%
Canada34%
Offshore17%
Total Combined Sales Volumes1 (2017)Million Tonnes
Geographic Combined Sales Volumes1 (2017)Percent
Source: Nutrien
1 Combined historical sales volumes for manufactured product only.September 12, 2018
Nutrien is the largest crop nutrient producer in the world, with 29 potash,
nitrogen and phosphate facilities in North and South America.
Leverage our Strategic Advantages in Potash 26
• ~6 million tonnes of incremental potash
production capability in Saskatchewan
• Opportunity to bring on low-cost production as
global demand grows
• Potash customers in more than 40 countries
• Unmatched distribution capability through
Canpotex and North American network
• Cash production costs of $60/tonne in 1H 2018
• Opportunity to lower operating costs and
sustaining capital through merger synergies
Well
positioned
on cost
curve
Global reach
and market
exposure
September 12, 2018
Paid-for
growth
platform
Potash: World’s Largest Producer; Lower-Cost Operations
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
Cash-related Cost of Goods Sold
Depreciation and Amortization
0.3
3.0 3.0
3.8 4.0
6.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Potash Nameplate Capacity1
Million Tonnes KCl
Combined Potash Cost per TonneUS$/Tonne
Source: Nutrien
1 Estimates based on capacity as per design specifications or Canpotex entitlements. The New Brunswick facility and Picadilly mine are currently in care-and-maintenance mode.
For Patience Lake, estimate reflects current operational capability. Refer to the applicable technical reports available on SEDAR.
2 Refers to total cost of goods sold less depreciation and amortization.
2
27
September 12, 2018
Optimize portfolio to minimize costs while maintaining flexibility to meet growth in demand
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F
Combined Sales Volumes Gross Margin % of Net Sales
Nutrien potash margins supported by lower delivered cost position and favorable
market characteristics
Potash: Historically Strong Margins and Volume Growth Throughout the Nutrient Cycle
Sales Volume1 Gross Margin2
Million Tonnes KCl Percent
4
1 Based on combined historical sales for Agrium and PotashCorp for 1998 to 2017.2 Historical potash gross margin as a percentage of net sales based on legacy PotashCorp financial information.3 Based on estimated annual achievable production in Saskatchewan; assuming fully staffed operations.4 2018F represents guidance range of 12.3 to 12.8 million tonnes as of August 1, 2018.
Source: Nutrien
~ 6 Mmt of incremental
production capability3
28
September 12, 2018
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400Other Cost Gas Cost
Nitrogen: Nutrien Has Low Cost Nitrogen Assets With Regional Advantages
Urea Cash Cost & Price ComparisonUS$/Tonne
Nutrien Manufactured Nitrogen ProfileMillion Tonnes (2017)
Nutrien’s diverse nitrogen assets expected to generate exceptional
margins in almost any market conditions
Current PNW Urea Price
Current NOLA Urea Price
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Argus, Nutrien
• Western Canadian cash cost is shown as FOB.
3.4 2.2
2.6
2.5
3.9
2.4
0.7
Product Sales Ammonia Capacity
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Solutions
& Nitrates
Urea
Ammonia
US
Canada
Trinidad
Equity
Investments
29
September 12, 2018
Selected Fertilizer Prices
Global Crop Nutrient Prices
Source: Fertilizer Week, Nutrien
2018
Drivers
Potash
Continued robust
demand has supported
a strong sold position
for Q3 2018 and new
supply from greenfield
projects continues to be
delayed
Nitrogen
Tight export supplies
from China and the
Black Sea and
uncertainty regarding
Iran, in addition to
strong energy prices
have supported prices
Phosphate
Slow ramp-ups of
greenfield production,
reduced US and
Chinese production and
increased raw material
costs have supported
phosphate prices
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
NovMarJan May SepJul Jan MaySep Nov Mar MarMay Jul JulJan NovSep
Potash - CFR Brazil ($/mt)
Urea – New Orleans Barge FOB ($/mt)
DAP - FOB Tampa ($/mt)
2016
30
2017 2018
September 12, 2018
Favorable Potash Market Fundamentals
3
1
Highest growth rate of the primary
crop nutrients
Nutrien, 23%
Other Top 5 Producers, 50%
All Other Producers, 27%
Long development times and high
capital costs
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Top 5
Producers,
73%
$2,700
$2,300
7 to 10 years
construction &
ramp up
Global Potash Consumption
Million Tonnes KClGlobal Potash Capacity1
% Share (2017)Greenfield Capital Intensity
Cost per Tonne2 (US$)
Source: AMEC, CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien1 Based on nameplate capacity, which may exceed operational capability. 2 Estimates for a conventional 2-million-tonne mine in Saskatchewan.
Range
31
Concentration of high-quality deposits
September 12, 2018
Global Potash Shipments by RegionMillion Tonnes KCl
Record Global Potash Demand Projected in 2018
Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien
0
5
10
15
20
15 16 17E 18F 15 16 17E 18F 15 16 17E 18F 15 16 17E 18F 15 16 17E 18F 15 16 17E 18F
2018
Hig
hlig
hts
India
4.5 – 5.0Mmt
• Expect modest
demand growth in
line with positive
consumption trends
despite reduced
subsidy rates for
2018/19 FY
10.0 – 10.5Mmt
• Demand supported
by record palm oil
production and
robust crop
economics for a wide
range of key crops
Other
9.5 – 10.0Mmt
• Steady demand
supported by strong
affordability and
significant removal
of nutrients following
consecutive large
harvests
12.5 – 13.0Mmt
• Improved crop
economics and
acreage growth in
nutrient deficient
regions has
supported strong
potash demand
15.5 – 16.0Mmt
• Strong consumption
trends supported by
affordability and a
shift to more
potassium-intensive
crops like fruits and
vegetables
12.5 – 13.0Mmt
• Good affordability
and growing demand
for NPK fertilizers,
including in Africa,
are expected to
boost potash
demand
Other Asia Latin America ChinaNorth America
Previous Record:
6.3mmt (2010)
Previous Record:
10.1mmt (2017)
Previous Record:
11.1mmt (1997)
Previous Record:
12.2mmt (2017)
Previous Record:
15.8mmt (2015)
Previous Record:
13.7mmt (1997)
32
September 12, 2018
Increased Energy Costs Support Nitrogen Prices
Source: Bloomberg, NYMEX, CRU, Fertecon, Nutrien
Chinese
Anthracite
Coal Prices(US$/MT)
Brent
Crude Oil
Price(US$/Barrel)
European
Hub Natural
Gas (TTF)(US$/MMBtu)
NYMEX
Natural Gas(US$/MMBtu)
$109 $99
$52 $44 $54$76
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Current
$3.73 $4.26$2.63 $2.55 $3.02 $2.80
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Current
$10.55
$8.22
$6.47
$4.54$5.71
$9.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Current
Increased global energy prices supports marginal nitrogen costs and prices;
While low and stable North American prices supports margins
33
$175$151
$127$106
$149
$180
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Current
September 12, 2018
Expect Improvement in Global Phosphate Supply & Demand Over the Medium Term
Source: CRU, Nutrien
1 Based on estimated operational capability.
34
Global Phosphate Operational Capability & DemandMillion Tonnes P2O5
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Global Utilization Rate1
Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Demand Operational Capability
Low operating rates in China projected to balance the market in the short-term;
demand growth projected to exceed capacity additions from 2020-forward
September 12, 2018
Thank you!
INVESTOR PRESENTATION
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September 12, 2018