Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Concept

Predicts road network performance as a function of:

Traffic volumes and loading

Road pavement type and strength

Maintenance standards

Environment / Climate

Quantifies benefits to road users from:Savings in vehicle operating costs (VOC)

Reduced road user travel times

Decrease in number of accidents

Environmental effects

Life Cycle AnalysisR

ough

ness

Rehabilitation

Time / Traffic Loading

Maintenance Standard

PavementPerformanceCurve

Good

PoorR

oad

Age

ncy

Cos

t

RehabilitationCost

Time (years)

CumulativeMaintenanceCost

Rutting

Pavement Age (Years)Pavement Age (Years)

Ru

ttin

g (

mm

)R

utt

ing

(m

m) Weak PavementWeak Pavement

Strong PavementStrong Pavement

Crack Progression

dACA = Kcpa

CDSCRPzA [(zA*a0*a1*tA*YE4*SNPa2

+ SCAa1 )1/a1 - SCA]

dACA = annual increase in area crackedKcpa = calibration factorYE4 = traffic loadingSNP = pavement strength

How long does it take in Bulgaria?

Crack Progression Calibration

Crack Progression

0102030405060708090

100

0 5 10 15 20

Years

Per

cen

t A

rea

of

Cra

ckin

g

Kcp = 1.0 Kcp = 2.0 Kcp = 0.4

Model Calibration

Calibration

01020304050

60708090

100

0 5 10 15 20

Years

Per

cen

t A

rea

of

Cra

ckin

g

HDM-4 Observed

Road User Effects

Vehicle operating costsfuel, oil, tyres, parts consumptionvehicle utilisation & depreciation

Travel timepassengerscargo

Road accidentsEnergy consumptionVehicle emissions & noise

Vehicle Operation Costs

Road Condition (IRI)

Roa

d U

ser

Cos

ts (

$/ve

h-km

)

Good Poor

Car

Pickup/utility

Heavy Truck

Bus

Rickshaw

HDM-4 Applications

Road sector policy studies

Strategic planning of road network development, improvement & maintenance

Preparation of multi-year road work programs

Economic appraisal of individual road projects

Research studies

Strategy Analysis

Objectives:Determine budget allocations for road maintenance and improvementPrepare for work programmesDetermine long term network performanceAssess impact on road users

The analysis of entire road networks to determine funding needs and/or to predict future performance under budget constraints

Network Condition Summary

Roughness in 2008

< 3.5 IRI28%

3.5 < IRI < 5.08%

> 5.0 IRI64%

Impact of Budget Levels

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ave

rage

Rou

ghne

ss (

IRI)

$20m

$15m

$10m

AnnualBudget

Target = 3.5 IRI

Class I Roads

Impact of Budget Allocations

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ave

rage

Rou

ghne

ss (

IRI) Class III

Roads$30m/yr

Class IIRoads$35m/yr

Class IRoads$20m/yr

Program Analysis

Objective: prioritise candidate road projects in each year within annual budget constraintAnnual budgets obtained from strategic maintenance plan

Preparation of single or multi-year road work and expenditure programs

under specified budget constraints.

Work Program Output

Priority Road Length Province Type of Scheduled Cost CumulativeRank Section (km) or District Road Work Year $m S$m

1 N1-2 20.5 2 Resealing 2000 5.4 5.42 N4-7 23.5 7 Overlay 40mm 2000 10.9 16.33 N2-5 12.5 5 Reconstruct 2000 8.6 24.94 R312-1 30 4 Widen 4 lane 2000 31.4 56.35 R458-3 36.2 3 Overlay 60mm 2000 16.3 72.6

: : : : : : : :1 N4-16 32.1 6 Reconstruct 2001 22.8 22.82 R13-23 22.4 4 Overlay 40mm 2001 9.7 32.53 N521-5 45.2 2 Widen 4 lane 2001 41.3 73.8

: : : : : : : :1 N1-6 30.2 4 Resealing 2002 8.2 8.22 N7-9 17.8 3 Overlay 60mm 2002 9.2 17.43 F2140-8 56.1 1 Reconstruct 2002 34.9 52.3

: : : : : : : :

20032003200320032003

200420042004

200520052005

Work Program Output (2)

Priority Road Length Province Road Cost Road Cost Road Cost Road CostRank Section (km) or District Work $m Work $m Work $m Work $m

1 N1-2 20.5 2 RESEAL 5.4 R.M. 0.185 R.M. 0.185 R.M. 0.1852 N4-7 23.5 7 OVL40MM 10.9 R.M. 0.212 R.M. 0.212 R.M. 0.2123 N2-5 12.5 5 RECON 8.6 R.M. 0.113 R.M. 0.113 R.M. 0.1134 R312-1 30 4 WIDEN-4 31.4 R.M. 0.180 R.M. 0.180 R.M. 0.1805 R458-3 36.2 3 OVL60MM 16.3 R.M. 0.217 R.M. 0.217 R.M. 0.217

: : : : : : : : : : : :16 N4-16 32.1 6 R.M. 0.289 RECON 22.8 R.M. 0.289 R.M. 0.28917 R13-23 22.4 4 R.M. 0.134 OVL40MM 9.7 R.M. 0.134 R.M. 0.13418 N521-5 45.2 2 R.M. 0.407 WIDEN-4 41.3 R.M. 0.407 R.M. 0.407 : : : : : : : : : : : :28 N1-6 30.2 4 R.M. 0.272 R.M. 0.272 RESEAL 8.2 R.M. 0.27229 N7-9 17.8 3 INLAY 0.240 R.M. 0.200 OVL60MM 9.2 R.M. 0.16030 F2140-8 56.1 1 PATCH 0.202 R.M. 0.202 RECON 34.9 R.M. 0.168

Note: RM = Routine Maintenance

20032000 2001 2002

Project Economic Analysis

Project typesNew construction, upgrading

Reconstruction, resealing

Widening, lane addition

Economic indicatorsNet present value (NPV)

Economic rate of return (ERR)

Benefit cost ratio (BCR), NPV/C

First year rate of return (FYRR)

Data Data CollectionCollection

DatabaseDatabase DecisionDecisionSupportSupport

ManagementManagementInformationInformation

InventoryConditionStructuresTrafficFurnitureUnit CostsStandards

RDBMS(RIMS)

Life CycleAnalysis(HDM-4)

Standard& CustomReports

Road Management Systems

Conclusions – Why HDM-4?

Transparency of analysisEconomic analysis capable of:

Short, medium & long term analysesWhat-if analysis

Internationally accepted analysis frameworkAvailability of technical expertiseLocal calibration