hdm-4 introduction and applications
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HDM-4 Introduction and ApplicationsTRANSCRIPT
Introduction and Applications
The World Bank
HDM-III International Collaboration
• Collaborative international studies1969 - 1995
• World Bank
• MIT, LCPC, TRRL, UNDP
• Governments of Kenya, Brazil,Caribbean, India
• $20+ million data collection in4 field studies
HDM-4 International Collaboration
OtherOtherContributorsContributors
SNRASNRASweRoadSweRoad
VTIVTI
TechnicalTechnicalAdvisorsAdvisors
ODAODAThe UniversityThe Universityof Birminghamof Birmingham
ADBADBN D Lea Int.N D Lea Int.
IKRAMIKRAM
FICEMFICEMICH (Chile)ICH (Chile)
Catholic Univ.Catholic Univ.
SponsorsSponsorsOverseas Development Administration (ODA)Overseas Development Administration (ODA)
Asian Development Bank (ADB)Asian Development Bank (ADB)Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA)Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA)
The World Bank (IBRD)The World Bank (IBRD)
Steering CommitteeSteering Committee(World Bank)(World Bank)
SecretariatSecretariatThe UniversityThe Universityof Birminghamof Birmingham
Limitations of HDM-III Vehicle and tire technology in the VOC studies
bears little resemblance to those of modern vehicles
HDM-III does not consider:• Traffic congestion (prior to 1995)• Rigid pavements• Many types of flexible pavements• Pavement texture and skid resistance• Freeze-thaw conditions• Traffic safety• Environmental impacts
Software for DOS environment
HDM-4 Technical Improvements• Pavements
• Wider range of flexible pavements• Rigid pavements• More maintenance types• Drainage effects• Freezing climates effects
• Road Users• New vehicle types• Characteristics of Modern Vehicles• Non-motorized traffic• Congestion effects • Accidents• Emissions & Energy consumption
HDM-4 Software Improvements
• Windows 95/98/NT Environment– Easy to use– Different levels of input data
• Three Application Modules– Project Evaluation – Network Programme Evaluation– Network Strategic Planning Evaluation
• Better interface with Pavement Management Systems
The HDM-4 Model
Analytical tool for engineering andeconomic assessment of
- road investments and maintenance
- transport pricing and regulation
Physical and economic relationships derivedfrom extensive research on road deterioration,the effects of maintenance activities, and vehicle operation and user costs
Road Agency Alternatives
Standards / Alternatives Policies / Strategies Norms / Options
- 4 cm overlay every 8 years - 6 cm overlay every 15 years - reseal the road and postpone the overlay - reconstruct the road when IRI = 10 - do nothing
- grading every 180 days - upgrade unpaved road to a paved standard
Evaluation of AlternativesEconomic evaluation
Technical evaluation
Institutional evaluation
Financial evaluation
Commercial evaluation
Social evaluation
Environmental evaluation
Transport Benefits
Reduce vehicle operating costSavings in time of passengers
and cargoReduction of accidents
Stimulate regional developmentIncrease the comfort and
convenienceBetter national integrationNational securityGreater self-sufficiencyEqual distribution of incomePrestige of the country
The HDM-II
and HDM-
III Initiativ
e
1969-1971 Phase 1 - Conceptual Framework- MIT, TRRL- First Prototype - LCPC- The World Bank
1971-1975 Kenya Study - VOC Study- TRRL- Road Deterioration Study - Kenya- The World Bank
1977-1982 Caribbean Study- VOC Study- TRRL- Caribbean Countries
1977-1983 India Study - VOC Study - CRRI - New Delhi
1975-1982 Brazil Study - VOC Study- GEIPOT - Brazil
- Road Deterioration Study - United Nations - The World Bank- Texas Research
1981-1987 Final Phase - Modeling - The World Bank
1987 HDM-III Publications - Research Documentation - The World Bank
1989 HDM-III Software - PC Computer software - The World Bank
1995 HDM System - Congestion, HDM Manager - The World Bank
The
HDM
Computer
Programs
HDM-I1970
HDM-II1975
HDM-III1985
Fortran
HDM Manager 1.01991
Clipper / DOS
HDM Manager 2.01993
HDM Manager 3.01995
HDM Manager 3.21999
HDM-IIIPC 1989
HDM-QPC 1995
HDM-42000
Mai
nfra
me
Windows 95/98/NT
Limited Distribution
The Beginn
ing, 1969
More than 10,000 million dollars are spent on the highway sector each year in developing countries. The cost borne by the road-using public for vehicle operation are typically 8 to 10 times greater
In Europe and North America: - high traffic volumes - high values attached to travel time savings - relatively abundant capital resources
In developing countries: - traffic levels often much lower - values given to travel time savings are far lower - acute shortage of financial resources
Pavement Management Approaches
Condition-responsive/financial approachphysical standards are set in relation to:a) perceived technical requirements, b) acceptable service levels, and c) received budget
Crisis-oriented approachhighway facilities are operated with little or no maintenance until obstructive failure occurs that needs extensive restoration and reconstruction work
Technical-economic efficiency approachfunctional and technical standards are selected tominimize total road transport costs to society.
Technical-economic Efficiency
Year0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Year0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Year0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Agency Costs (at 12%)
Net present Value (at 12%)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 300
20
40
60
80
100
120
Terminal Life
R.L.
CurrentCondition
Condition
Ride m/kmDistress %Rut mmStructural #Safety #
Index
90
Rating
Poor
ComposedIndexOverallIndex
- Current Condition- Deterioration Prediction
Remaining Service Life
- Current Condition- Deterioration Prediction- Maintenance Effects- Vehicle Operating Costs
Benefits to Society
Condition
Condition
Condition
Total Society Costs
� Construction
� Maintenance
� Vehicle operation
� Passenger and cargo time
� Accidents
ROAD AGENCY COSTS
ROAD USER COSTS
=
+
Composition of Total Society Costs
CONSTRUCTION- Pavement- Structures- Furniture- Formation- Land
MAINTENANCE- Routine- Pavement- Structures
SYSTEM OPERATION- Traffic mgt.- Safety- Management
EXTERNAL- Accidents- Pollution- Access- Production
ROAD USERS- Fuel, lubricants- Maintenance- Depreciation- Time- Accidents
Total Society Costs
Total Society Costs
Improve Standard
Road Agency Costs
Road User Costs
Minimizing Consumption of Resources
Infrastructure
Road Users
Road Agency
Consumption of Resources
litersm3
hours
XUnit Costs
=Total Society Costs
Financial & Economic Unit
Costs• Financial Prices Market Prices
• Economic Prices Shadow Prices Social Prices
Do not reflect thereal scarcity valueof the inputs
Developing Countries- Government Controls Taxes Subsidies Regulations- Rapid Inflation- Overvaluation of Domestic Currency
Road User Costs Model
RoadGeometry,Condition
Driver,TrafficFlow
VehicleCharacteristics
Fuel & LubricantsTireMaintenance Parts & LaborCrew TimeDepreciation & InterestPassenger & cargo time
SPEED
CO
MP
SU
MP
TIO
N
Paved Road Deterioration Model
Moisture,TemperatureAging
Traffic,Loading
PavementMaterials,Thickness
Cracking
Ravelling
Potholing
Rutting
Roughness
Vehicle Operating
Costs
0.00
0.200.40
0.600.80
1.00
1.201.40
1.601.80
2.00
2 6 9 13 16 20
Roughness (IRI)
VO
C p
er v
ehic
le-k
m (
$)
Car Truck Articulated Truck
Costs-shares Under Optimal Maintenance
50 veh/day 300 veh/day 5000 veh/day
Agency CostsAgency Costs
Agency Costs
User Costs
User Costs
User Costs
Primary Features of
HDM-4• Simulates deterioration and maintenance
of paved and unpaved roads, in physicalcondition and quantities, for strategies defined by the user
• Simulates road user costs (speedsand consumption of physical components)
• Determines time-streams of road agency,road user costs, and net benefits
• Computes economic indicators
HDM-4 Limitations
• The model does not perform a network traffic assignment
• The model does not internally costs environmental impacts such as air or noise pollution
• The model does not address urban conditions (start/stop)
• The model does not evaluate cement blocks and cobblestone pavements
Important Uses of HDM-4� Analytical support to justify funding
� Forecasting financial and physical needsfor preserving road network
� Optimal maintenance strategies
� Economic thresholds for road improvements
� Tradeoffs between design and maintenancestandards or options
� Simulating type and extent of deterioration
� Road use cost and damage attribution, inroad transport pricing and taxation(user charges, fuel tax, etc.)
� Optimal axle loading and configuration
� Fleet modernization
Planning and Programming
Technical Applications
Economic Applications
Planning
• Medium- & long-term evaluation of options & strategies: 4-, 5-, 6- or 10-yrs
• Outputs:– Program allocations by network & region (routine m.,
periodic m, rehab., betterment, etc.) - approximate quantity, cost, benefit
– Outcome in performance– Major development schemes identified and preparation
scheduled
Programming
• Annual or 2-3-yr rolling program prepared for each network, within imposed budget allocations
• Output: – individual projects identified in each program,
network & region
– cost and benefit estimates
• Network-Level Analysis
Project Preparation• Comparison of project-alternatives, economic
justification:– pre-feasibility study– feasibility study
Technical Standards• Definition of road agency norms and policies:
– Levels of service– Recommended works– Trigger points
HDM-4 Application
s• Project evaluation• Project formulation• Maintenance needs
forecasting• Network program formulation• Network strategic planning• Technical standards• Vehicle policies
Project Evaluati
on
A Gravel Road
Current Policy
- Routine maintenance
- Gravel resurfacing when thickness of gravel is less than 50mm
- Grading every 90 day
Proposed Project- Upgrade the road to a paved standard- After the upgrading, routine maintenance, patching 100% of the potholes, and resealing when damaged area > 20%
Comparison of Alternatives• Evaluation Period = 20 years
• Discount rate = 12.00 %
Internal Construction Road Net Rate ofLength Maintenance User Total Present Return(km) Alt Costs Costs Costs Value (%)
100.0 BASE 2.71 26.7 29.4 PROJ 9.28 17.0 26.2 3.2 17.1
Is the project economically justified?
Project Formulation
A Gravel Road
- Grading every 180 days
-Grading every 90 days
- Grading every 60 days
- Grading every 30 days
- Grading every 15 days
- Grading every 7 days
- Upgrade in 2001
- Upgrade in 2002
- Upgrade in 2003
- Upgrade in 2004
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 2 4 6 8 10
Present Value of Agency Costs at 12%
Net
Pre
sen
t V
alu
e at
12%
15 Days
180 Days
90 Days
60 Days
30 Days
7 Days
2004
2003
2002
2001
Project Economi
c Efficienc
y Frontier
Which is the optimal strategy?
Maintenance
Needs Forecas
tingA Paved Roadin Good Condition
- Routine Maintenance Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0
- Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0
- Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes 12 mm Resealing when damage is > 30% Reconstruction when IRI > 11.0
- Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes 4 cm overlay when IRI is > 4.0
- Routine Maintenance Patching 100% of potholes 8 cm overlay when IRI is > 4.0
Roughness Progression
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 5 10 15 20 25
Year
Ro
ug
hn
es
s (
IRI m
/km
)
BASE
P100
RE30
OS40
OD40
Efficiency Frontier
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Agency Costs (at 12%)
Ne
t p
res
en
t V
alu
e (
at
12
%)
BASE
Patch
4 cm
12 mm
8 cm
What will be the future maintenance needs?
Network Program Formulat
ionand
Optimization
A Road Network
- What are the resources needed to maintain the network?
- How should the agency allocate the resources needed for an optimal maintenance program?
- What maintenance program should be implemented in case of budgetary constraints?
Budgetary Constraints
A Road Network
G F PL
M
H
A.C.
Resource Constraints
Optimal Strategy underBudgetary Constraints
StrategywithoutBudgetConstraint
OptimizationModule
Diagnostic of the
NetworkRoughness in 1998
< 3.5 IRI28%
3.5 < IRI < 5.08%
> 5.0 IRI64%
Consequences to Society
What are the consequences of budget constraints? What is the recommended work program?
Society Net Benefits Present Value (Billion Rs)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 1 2 3 4 5 6Periodic Expenditures (Billion Rs/year)
Consequences to the Network
Scenario: 6 Billion Rs per year
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
Year
Ne
two
rk C
on
diti
on
(%
)
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
Ave
rag
e R
ou
gh
ne
ss (
IRI)
Poor
Fair
Good
Avg. IRI
Consequences to the
UsersNetwork Road User Costs (Billion Rs)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
6 BillionRs perYearCase
WithoutProjectCase
Savings:152 Billion Rs
Definition of a Budget
LevelAverage Network Roughness (IRI)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Year
6.0
3.0
4.5
2.0
1.0
BudgetScenarios(Rs B per year)
Prioritized Work
Program
Rough All Rut TotalFrom To Length Width ness Cracks Depth Traffic Road Cost NPV NPV/
Link City City Type (km) (m) (IRI) (%) (mm) (ADT) Class Solution B Rs B Rs Cost52 Peshawar Jamrud AC 19 7.3 3.3 27.5 14 3657 P3AZ 02 - 1 0.01 0.46 31.4658 ChichawatniSahiwal AC 86 7.3 1.5 26.7 6 4628 P3AZ 02 - 1 0.07 2.06 31.4632 Shahdara Muridke AC 15 7.3 9.9 0.0 0 13994 P5DX 06 - 1 0.15 2.72 18.1425 Khanewal Mian Channu AC 46 7.3 9.3 76.6 0 9754 P5DZ 12 - 1 0.50 7.29 14.593 Hala Sakrand ST 41 7.3 7.3 30.3 4 7040 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.43 5.37 12.405 Qazi AhmedMoro ST 56 7.3 7.7 47.9 4 8000 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.59 7.34 12.4012 Panu Aqil Ghotki ST 28 7.3 7.8 32.1 3 8736 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.30 3.67 12.4015 Daherki Ubaro ST 14 7.3 10.7 26.2 10 8832 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.15 1.84 12.4016 Ubaro Sadiq Abad ST 41 7.3 8.3 41.8 8 8880 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.43 5.37 12.406 Moro Nowshero FerozST 25 7.3 8.6 32.6 7 7013 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.26 3.28 12.4011 Rohri Panu Aqil ST 32 7.3 7.4 41.9 13 11101 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.34 4.19 12.4013 Ghotki Mir Pur MatheloST 25 7.3 8.5 36.1 5 8074 S5DZ 12 - 1 0.26 3.28 12.40
Technical Standards
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
100
Traffic (ADT)
Net
Pre
sen
t V
alu
e at
12%
400300200
What is the optimal traffic threshold for paving?
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
30
0
10
00
30
00
60
00
10
00
0
Av
era
ge A
gen
cy
Co
sts
($/k
m/y
r)
Non-vehicle-related Vehicle-related Loading-related
Vehicle Policies
How much road damage is caused by trucks?