international convention world federation of tourist guide associations wftga 2013

INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION

WORLD FEDERATION OF TOURIST GUIDE ASSOCIATIONS

WFTGA 2013

Macau, China 14-18 January 2013

Mr. Márcio Favilla L. de PaulaExecutive Director, Competitiveness, External Relations and Partnerships

UNWTO

Results 2011

International Tourist Arrivals990 million

+5.0%

International Tourism Receipts(BOP Travel)

US$ 1,035 billion (euro 740 bn) +3.9% (real terms)

+International passenger transport

(BOP Transport, passenger)US$ 203 billion (euro 144 bn)

www.unwto.org/facts

Inbound tourism: World

International tourist arrivals, 1995-2011* (million)

528560

586 602 625674 673 693 684

755799

845900 919

883941

403437 436 443 457 476 466 485

533

634679

744

858

941

853

928

85 92 96 95 97 98 93 95 101 121 133 144169 186

155 174

990 mn

US$ 1.035 bn

US$ 203 bn

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011*

International tourist arrivals (million)International tourism receipts (BOP Travel, US$ billion)

Int. passenger transport (BOP Transp, pass, US$ billion)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

% c

hang

e ov

er p

revi

ous

year

International tourist arrivals

International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely

Asian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower

11S, SARS, economic downturn: receipts more affected

‘Great recession’: receipts more affected and slower to recover


INTERNATIONAL TOURISM 2011*International tourist arrivals and receipts and market share (%)

International Tourist Arrivals (ITA)990 million

International Tourism Receipts (ITR)US$ 1,035 billion

AmericasITA: 157 million (16%)ITR: US$ 199 billion (19%)

AfricaITA: 50 million (5%)ITR:US$ 33 billion (3%)

EuropeITA: 509 million (51%)ITR: US$ 464 billion (45%)

Middle EastITA: 56 million (6%)ITR: US$ 47 bn (5%)

Asia and the PacificITA: 218 million (22%)ITR: US$ 291 billion (28%)


Results2012

www.unwto.org/facts

International tourism continues to grow strongly

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*

+2.1% -3.9% +6.6% +5.0% +4.1%

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Asia and the Pacific (% change)


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*

+1.1% -1.6% +13.2% +6.4% +7.3%

Emerging destinations suffered less inthe crisis and recovered quicker

International Tourist Arrivals (% change)


-0.3

-4.5

5.2 5.2

3.6

9.3

5.1

-3.1

8.2

4.9 4.64.4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

07/06 08/07 09/08 10/09 11/10 12*/11 YTD

Advanced economiesEmerging economies

International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year)


54

10

8

4

11

1

12

3 3

4

9

-9

7

-7

0

3

9

1

78

5

8

3

5

76

10

4

-1

5.04.1

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

World

Northe

rn Euro

pe

Wester

n Euro

pe

Centra

l/Eas

tern E

urope

Southe

rn/Med

iter. E

u.

North-E

ast A

sia

South-

East A

sia

Ocean

ia

South

Asia

North A

merica

Caribb

ean

Centra

l Ameri

ca

South

America

North A

frica

Subsa

haran

Africa

Middle

East

11/10 12*/11 January - August

2012: positive growth in all regions except ME

International tourism: projection full year 2012


2011(Full year)

Forecast 2012(done January)

YTD 2012 (Jan.-Aug.)

World +5.0% 3% to 4% 4.1%

Europe +6.7% 2% to 4% 3.4%

Asia and the Pacific +6.4% 4% to 6% 7.3%

Americas +4.2% 2% to 4% 3.6%

Africa +0.3% 4% to 6% 6.1%

Middle East -7.0% 0% to 5% -1.4%


International tourist arrivals

7.9

-0.1

2.9

-1.6

10.3

5.9 6.0 6.5

2.1

-3.9

6.44.6

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*

Forecast 2012: 3% to 4%2013: 2% to 4%

Outlook: World ch

ange

(%)

Tourism towards 2030

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

International arrivals to reach 1.4 billion in 2020 and 1.8 billion

by 2030

1 bn

1.8 bn

1.4 bn

Average annual growth 2010-2030: +3.3%

+ 43 million

Growth in international tourism will continue,

but at a more moderate paceInternational tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year


3

0

0

1

9

4

3

9

7

6

7

0

9

3

44

6

5

3

4

8

0

3

-2

10

66

7

2

-4

7

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29

2010 – 2030 : 3.3%

3.8 % 2.9%2010 - 2020

2020 - 2030

1980 – 1995: 4.4% 1995 – 2010: 3.9%

Average annual growth

Average annual growth Average annual growth

International tourist arrivals to increase

by 43 million a year on average International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million


8

0

0

4

25

1310

3027

22

28

-2

39

15

21 20

33

26

16

22

49

-1

20

-11

70

45 45

56

20

-35

58

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2010 – 2030 : +43 mn

2010 - 2020

2020 - 2030+42 mn + 45

mn1980 – 1995: +17 mn 1995 – 2010: +28 mn

Average growth

Average growth Average growth

Emerging economies destinations to surpass advanced destinations by

2015Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million

emerging economies

advanced economies


0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

457 mn

772 mn

552 mn

523 mn

1,037 mn

540 mn

Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares

Africa

3%

Americas

23%

Asia and the Pacific

8%

Europe

63%

Middle East

3%

Middle East

6%

Europe

51%


22%

Americas

16%

Africa

5%

Africa

7%

Americas

14%Asia and the Pacific

30%

Europe

41%

Middle East

8%

1980 (277 mn)

2010 (940 mn)

2030 (1.8 bn)

Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million

Europe


Americas

Middle East

Africa


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows most

509 mn

832 mn

205 mn 541 mn

160 mn

265 mn

37 mn

30 mn

81 mn

90 mn

Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals

Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million

Europe


Americas

Middle East

Africa


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

744 mn

204 mn

150 mn

50 mn

61 mn

475 mn

535 mn

248 mn

149 mn

134 mn

Emergingmarkets

International tourist arrivals by country of destination

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011*

milli

on

advanced economiesemerging economies

Growth: Driven by emerging destinations



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011*

shar

e (%

)

advanced economiesemerging economies

Growth: Driven by emerging destinations (share)



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

milli

on

To emerging economies from other region

To emerging economies from same region

To advanced economies from other region

To advanced economies from same region

Most arrivals within own region


Rank 1950 Share 1970 Share 1990 Share 2011 Share

1 United States Italy France France2 Canada Canada United States United States3 Italy 71% France 43% Spain 39% China 31%4 France Spain Italy Spain5 Switzerland United States Austria Italy

6 Ireland Austria Mexico Turkey7 Austria Germany Germany United Kingdom8 Spain 17% Switzerland 22% United Kingdom 18% Germany 13%9 Germany Yugoslavia Canada Malaysia

10 United Kingdom United Kingdom China Mexico

11 Norway Hungary Greece Austria12 Argentina Czechoslovakia Portugal Russian Federation13 Mexico 9% Belgium 10% Switzerland 9% Hong Kong (China) 11%14 Netherlands Bulgaria Yugoslav SFR Ukraine15 Denmark Romania Malaysia Thailand

Others 3% Others 25% Others 34% Others 45%

Total 25 million 166 million 436 million 990 million

Diversification of destinations

Average annual growth: 2000-2011*International tourist arrivals (% a year 2000-2011*)

7,97,5 7,2

6,5 6,46,0

4,9 4,73,9 3,6

3,1 2,8

1,8 1,5 1,3 1,0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


Emerging markets characteristics

• Sizeable population → still limited number taking part in international tourism → huge growth potential

• Economies rapid economic growth → disposable incomes increase

• A relative big share of this increase will be spent on tourism (domestic as well as international)

• Emerging middle classes:– Growing proportion of population able to take

part and taking part in tourism• Increasing frequency of existing travelers• Increased competition →diversification strategies

World’s Top Economies in 2030: BRICS on the spot

1 USA 2 China 3 Japan 4 Germany 5 France 6 UK 7 Italy 8 Brazil 9 Russia 10 Canada 11 India 12 Spain 13 Australia 14 Mexico 15 Korea (ROK)

14.65.64.83.62.92.62.32.01.71.61.61.51.21.11.0

31.722.9

8.05.95.94.74.44.23.63.02.92.32.12.01.8

Source: IMF

1 China 2 USA 3 India 4 Brazil 5 Japan 6 Russia 7 Germany 8 France 9 UK 10 Mexico 11 Italy 12 Canada 13 Korea (ROK)14 Spain 15 Australia

Country GDP 2030 (USD trn)Country GDP 2010 (USD trn)

Projection in 2010 constant dollars; source: Goldman Sachs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

5

10

31

95 5

10 10

30,5

4 59

29

58

22

13

8

25

19

62 2.598

9 9

(Million)

2000 2011 *Data for 2010

Fast-growing emerging destinationsInbound tourism 2000 - 2011

0,8

United

States

German

y

United

Kingdo

mJap

anFran

ceChin

a

Russian

Federa

tion

Brazil

Spain

Repub

lic of

Korea

Saudi

Arabia

India

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

65

53

3832

23

139

4 6 7

NA3

78

86

51

27

44

73

32

2117

20 1814

2000 2011

US$ billion

1

2000: Top 5 : US$ 213 billion (47%)2011: Top 5 : US$ 332 billion (32%)

2000 – US$ 475 bi-llion2011 – US$ 1.035 bi-llion

Emerging markets increasing expenditure abroad

International tourism expenditure 2000 - 2011

2 2 1

3 4

4 9 5

5

7

3

712 18 15 17 23

12 151826 32

International Tourism Expenditure (% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

German

y

United S

tates

China

United K

ingdo

mFran

ce

Canad

a

Russian

Federat

ion Italy

Japan

Austral

ia

Belgium Braz

il

Singapo

re

Netherl

ands

Korea,

Republic

of

Hong K

ong (

China)

Saudi

Arabia

Spain

Norway

Sweden

Switzerla

ndInd

ia

Malaysia

2011 2012*

International tourism expenditure in major outbound markets: BRICs are

hot

BR I

C

World and regions: Outbound TourismInternational Tourism Expenditure (US$ billion)

Germany

United States

China

United Kingdom

France

CanadaRussian FederationItalyJapan

Belgium


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Everybody chasing the Chinese tourist…

China Outbound Travel Market


• China is the most populated country in the world and the world’s second largest economy. China is also one of the fastest growing travel markets in the world, both in terms of international visitor arrivals and expenditure abroad

• China is the third largest spender in the world after Germany (US$ 86 billion) and the United States (US$ 79 billion). Chinese travellers spent US$ 73 billion in 2011, a more than three-fold increase from 2005, when expenditure was US$ 22 billion.

• Thanks to rising disposable incomes, rapid urbanization and relaxations of restrictions on foreign travel, outbound trips from China have grown an average 19% a year since 2000. Chinese had taken 34.5 million trips abroad (2006). By 2011, this figure had risen to over 70 million, and continues to increase steadily.

UNWTO reports on Outbound Markets• The Indian Outbound Travel

Market (2007)• The Chinese Outbound Travel

Market (2008) (new update forthcoming, 2012)

• The Russian Outbound Travel Market (2009)

• The Middle East Outbound Travel Market (2012)

• The US Outbound Travel Market (2013)

• The Latin American Outbound Travel Market (2013)

• The Brazil Outbound Market (2013)

Tourism in the global agenda

• G20 recognizes for the first time Travel and Tourism as a vehicle for job creation, economic growth and development, and commits to work on travel facilitation

• Rio+20 recognizes the significant contribution of sustainable tourism to the three dimensions of sustainable development, its linkages to other sectors and its capacity to create decent jobs and trade opportunities.

Thank you very much for your attention!

World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

www.unwto.org

international convention world federation of tourist guide associations wftga 2013

Documents