inter-district assessment of people’s social well-being in balochistan province, pakistan ait 5 th...

Inter-district Assessment of People’s Social Well-being in Balochistan Province, Pakistan

AIT 5th Masters Thesis Competition

17th May, 2010

Examination Committee: Prof. Jayant Kumar Routray (Chairperson) Dr. Soparth Pongquan Dr. Kyoko Kusakabe

By: Muhammad Ashraf

st107664

Regional and Rural Development Planning, SERD

Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand 1

BackgroundWell-being considered as description of the overall life condition of individuals

In reviewing literature, it is found that there is no clear definition of the concept

social well-being.

Traditionally social well-being is associating to a person’s external social

conditions, their socio-economic position, life setting and more widely the

impact

of the area that they are living in or even their home country (Larson, 1993).

This concept has been used in both subjective and objective sense in

development theory.

Most popular and widely used definition is subjective well-being which

comprised on questions of life satisfaction and happiness (Clark and

McGillivray, 2007).

2

Background (Contd.) This research focuses on objective well-being which consists on certain

observable facts such as social, economic, and environmental.

Objective Well-being has two dimensions of measurement: Single and Multiple

In single dimension, economists basically focus on GDP growth and level.

While in multiple dimension, strategies and indicators (PQLI, HDI) have been developed to shift from promotion of growth to well-being promotion (UNDP,1990).

One of them is to replace GDP with objective measures, social and environmental aspects. In this study more emphasis is given on social aspects.

3

Background (Contd.) According to HDR 2009, Pakistan Ranked 4th in South Asian countries in terms

of human development.

IMR is 73 per 1,000 live births which are the highest figure in the region

Adult literacy rate of Pakistan is 54.2% and female literacy rate is 39.6% just

above Bhutan.

Similarly gross primary enrollment rate is 56% which are the least figures in

the region.

Regional disparities in terms of level of economic growth as well as health,

education, and standard of living among provinces and districts (UNDP, 2003).4

Problem Statement: Balochistan is the largest province, comprised on 26 districts and covering 45%

of the country’s area.

Population around 6.5 million scattered, appear to be largely unaffected by the

cheerful economic growth of the country.

In Pakistan provincial capitals as well as districts near by them are more

developed as compared to those which are far away from provincial capitals

(Pasha and Tariq, 1982).

Balochistan HDI is 0.443(HDR, 2007), and is almost 21% below to national

average.

The Tribal and Cultural system of Balochistan are the main reasons for weak

social development indicators.

5

Problem Statement(Contd.)

Only 10% female are literate in rural areas.

Education index is 0.591(least) versus 0.768 for Pakistan.

Maternal Mortality is 600 per 100,000 live birth vs. 350 for

Pakistan (PSLM,2006-07)

Social Development requires equal importance not only in public

provision of social services but also to the sectors which are

related to economic development

6

Rationale of the Study In a spatial context inequalities in economic and social well being are accepted and

documented internationally, across regions and also within countries.

Jamal (2003), found that inter-temporal spatial inequality increased in Balochistan

during last 20 years and so.

To take full benefits from national economic growth, rapid progress in human

capital and Social well being is indispensable for Balochistan.

In the past, some researcher focused on education related indicators (Ghaus et al,

1996), some on low level of social indicators (Pasha & Naeem, 1999).

This is the first study focusing specifically on Balochistan and try to understand the

relative change in development level of social well-being which was missing in the

previous studies.

7

Rationale of the Study(Contd.)

This study focuses on objective measures of well-being such as, education,

health, and quality of living to assess development level of social well-being.

Policy and program prioritization is the key to achieve sustainable and equal

development of social well being.

It will provide ground for policymakers and government to allocate recourses

and funds on priority bases for the less developed areas.

8

Conceptual Framework

Education

Development Level of Districts for policy

implications

Social Well-being in Balochistan

Household ownership

Electricity/Gas Facilities

Safe Drinking Water

Sanitation

Quality of Living Health

Child Immunization

Maternal Health

Medical Professionals (doctors, surgeons)

Para-medical Staff (Nurses, midwives, lady

health workers etc)

Health Basic Facilities (no of Beds per unit

population)

Adult literacy rate (male & female)

Primary enrollment (male & female)

Secondary enrollment (male & female)

Teacher-student ratio (primary & secondary

levels)

Assessment of Two time periods

First Period (1998)

Second Period (2006-07)

Inter-district Comparison (Equity & disparities)

9

Objectives

To analyze the inter-district disparity in social well-being by rank

ordering the districts, and

To identify the contributing factors of inter-district disparity.

10

Scope and Limitations of The Study Research will try to find out the relative change in the development level of

social well being over the last 10 years on the bases of social indicators such as

education, health, quality of living.

Comparison among the districts, in terms of social development will also be

made.

This research will also help in identifying the most significant factors of inter-

district disparity of social well being.

Finally, it will prioritize policy options based on findings to reduce inter-district

disparities in terms of social development.

Study is based on objective measures, therefore subjective aspects of well-being

like, happiness, life satisfaction will not be addressed.

data related to food security, family planning, crimes etc are not available at

district level, therefore not included in the study.

Due to time and budget constrain only secondary data will be used for analyses.11

Literature Review: Definition of Well-being

Concept of Social Well-being

History of Social Indicators

Social Well-being : An Overview of Pakistan

Social Well-being: Comparison of Pakistan’s situation in Regional context

Factors Contributing in Social Well-being

Related Studies Conducted for Measuring Social Well-being

Policy and Programs towards Improving social Well-being

Literature Review includes Journals articles, books, reports, surveys, internet

and government statistical documents

12

Methodology Types of Research.

Exploratory Research.

Explanatory Research.

Research types based on data. (Secondary Research.).

Research followed quantitative (Descriptive and inferential )

approach only.

Selection of Study Area. In terms of social development , Balochistan is least developed province in

the country (Pasha et al, 1990)

Due to time constraint, only Balochistan province which comprised on 26

districts is chosen. Availability of secondary data is much more easier and

reliable.13

Research Design

Literature Review

Problem of Research

Conceptual Framework

Research Design

Population Census Organization

PSLM, 2006-07 NIPS Balochistan Development

Statistics Directorate of Education

Balochistan Directorate of Health

Balochistan

Analysis & Interpretation

Finalization of Research topic Objectives Indicators

Selection of Study Area

Survey Design

Sources of Secondary Data

Construction of Composite Indices

Simple & Multiple Regression Model Mapping

Findings & Conclusions

Recommendations

14

Methodology( Contd.)

Data Sources :

1) Survey Based Secondary Data Sources: Directorate of Health Balochistan,

Directorate of Education Balochistan, PSLM, Population Census

Organization, NIPS, Balochistan Development Statistics.

2) Documentary Data Sources: journals, books, articles.

Selection of Indicators: Selected indicators basically covers following

objective aspects of social well-being. These are:

Education:

• Adult literacy (male, female)

• Net primary enrollment (male, female)

• Secondary enrollment (male, female)

• Teacher-student ratio (primary, secondary)

15

Methodology( Contd.)

Health:• Children aged 12-23 months covered under immunization • Pregnant women that have received TETANUS TOXOID

injection

• Professionals (doctors) per 10,000 population• Paramedical staff (Nurses, LHW, Mid wives etc.) per 10,000

population• Number of beds per 10,000 population

Quality of Living:• HH having access to clean drinking water• HH having latrines at household level• Distribution of HH with house ownership• HH using electricity as source of Light• HH using Natural gas/kerosene oil for cooking purposes 16

Methodology( Contd.) Data Analysis:

o Quantitative analysis.

• Descriptive statistics (percentage, average etc).

• Inferential statistics. Construction of Composite Indices

for the purpose of understanding changing pattern of Social well-being of various districts, following two techniques will be used for construction of composite indices.

1) The Z-Sum Technique

2) Taxonomic Distance Technique

17

1) The Z-Sum Technique Simplest Statistical Technique Used for rank ordering Territorial unitsThe Z-Sum technique is defined as follows:

Where: n = Number of indicators

= Mean value of ith indicatorSi = Standard deviation of ith indicatorYij = Value of ith indicator in jth district

The higher value of Z-Sum for a particular district indicates that district is more developed as compare to others.

n

i Si

YiYijiSumZ

1

)()(

Yi

18

2) Taxonomic Distance Technique

Used for Rank ordering Countries or Territorial units Develops difference b/w “ideal” and “observed” units “ideal” unit which has a best value for specific indicator First, we Standardized indicators

Taxonomic distance is computed on the basis of the following formula.

Where:

Zij stands for standardized value of the ith indicator in jth district and

stands for highest standardized value of the ith indicator among all districts.

It is important to note the district having minimum taxonomic distance value will be the most developed district.

2/1

1

2 ])~

([)(

n

i

iZZijiTD

iZ~

19

Determinants of Inter-District Disparity

To identify the contributing factors of inter-district disparity as a whole, following multiple regression models will be used

Socialit = a + b∆(Education)i + c∆(Health)i + d∆(Quality of Living)i

Where Socialit = Aggregate value of Z-score for district i in base year, and

∆(Education)i = difference between aggregate value of Z-score of education sector in current and base year in district i

∆(Health)i = difference between aggregate value of Z-score of health sector in current and base year in district i

∆(Quality of Living)i = difference between aggregate value of Z-score of quality of living sector in current and base year in district i

20

To answer the questions of inter-district disparity explicitly, it is hypothized that aggregate value of Z-score for each district in base year is a function of change in Z-score in each district for each variable. For this specification following simple regression model is used:

Socialit = a + b ∆Zij

Where

Socialit = Aggregate value of Z-score for district i in base year, and

∆Zij= Zic – Zib

∆Zij = relative change in Z-score during current and base year for

indicator j in district i.

Positive coefficient of b indicates increase in disparity Negative coefficients of b indicates decrease in disparity Insignificant coefficient of b indicates no change

21

Balochistan A Brief Profile Largest province in terms of area According to 1998 census, around 6.5 million habitants Administrative units 26 (districts) Located at the South-Eastern border of Iranian plateau

22

Profile (Contd.) Balochistan's share to national economy in between 3.7% to 4.9% during

last four decades Male and female literacy rate is 34% and 14% respectively Male and female enrollment in secondary level is 10% and 6% respectively Primary enrollment for boys and girls is 28% and 20% respectively Only 34% HH have access to safe drinking water Around 47% population have sanitation facilities Around 46% HH have access to electricity MMR is 600/100,000 live births Doctors and paramedical staff are 2 and 3 per 10,000 population which are

below the national figures

Source: PSLM 2006-07, PCO 1998

23

Analysis

Objective 1

To analyze the inter-district disparity in social well-being by rank ordering the districts

24

Overall Development level of Social well-being of Provinces

Source: Calculation are based on Population Census 1998 and PSLM 2006-07

1998 2006-07

Province

Z-Sum Taxonomic Distances

Z-Sum Taxonomic Distances

BALOCHISTAN -14.26 45.78 -13.26 40.42

N.W.F.P -1.00 21.35 -0.55 19.43

PUNJAB 7.92 16.79 8.87 12.07

SINDH 5.65 14.55 0.9 15.41

PAKISTAN 1.66 15.14 3.99 10.08

25

Analysis (contd.) Correlation coefficient between the ranks of both the

techniques for the years 1998, and 2006-07 is 0.8 and 1.00 respectively.

Both techniques are sensitive incase of outliers but Z is less.

In addition, if a particular indicator has a very large (maximum value of Zi), in relative to other districts, the contribution to Taxonomic distances can be increased.

Therefore Z-sum technique will be used in further analysis.

iZ~

26

Sectoral development level of social well-being of the Provinces.


1998 2006-07

Province Education Health

Quality of Living

Education Health Quality of

Living

BALOCHISTAN -8.16 -3.36 -2.75 -5.92 -4.34 -3.00

N.W.F.P -0.06 1.21 -2.14 -0.79 1.26 -1.02

PUNJAB 4.74 1.96 1.22 3.73 3.68 1.46

SINDH 3.12 -0.19 2.72 0.69 -1.36 1.57

PAKISTAN 0.31 0.40 0.95 2.29 0.72 0.98

27

Analysis (Contd.)Trends in the Development level of Social well-being of the

districts:

Coefficient of rank correlation between the ranks of Z-sum and

Taxonomic distances is 0.98 for 1998 and for 2006-07 is 0.96 which are very high.

Z- sum technique will be used for further analysis

Selection criteria is explained in earlier section

28

Trends in the Development level of Social well-being of the districts


1998 2006-07

Rank Districts Z-Sum Districts TD Districts Z-Sum Districts TD

1 Quetta 34.30 Quetta 33.23 Quetta 27.41 Quetta 21.52

2 Ziarat 18.87 Ziarat 49.22 Mastung 14.94 Ziarat 42.62

3 Panjgur 7.64 Sibbi 69.03 Ziarat 13.33 Mastung 45.20

4 Mastung 7.47 Mastung 69.04 Ketch 6.78 Sibbi 50.28

5 Pashin 6.78 Pashin 73.88 Sibbi 5.97 Kalat 60.01

6 Sibbi 5.94 Panjgur 80.83 Kalat 4.76 Ketch 62.24

7 Ketch 4.77 Ketch 81.47 Pashin 3.48 Pashin 64.50

8 Gwadar 2.39 Bolan 84.70 Gwadar 2.58 Lasbilla 68.00

9 Bolan 2.38 Gwadar 85.82 Zhob 0.59 Kharan 70.33

10 Kalat 0.83 Lasbilla 87.22 Barkhan 0.05 Gwadar 71.47

11 Lasbilla -0.43 Kalat 88.70 Kharan -0.33 Chaghi 74.92

12 Loralai -0.57 Loralai 89.47 Lasbilla -0.82 Zhob 74.95

13 Chaghi -0.61 Chaghi 89.95 Khuzdar -1.05 Khuzdar 74.98

14 Kharan -2.55 Kharan 96.43 Panjgur -1.66 Barkhan 77.37

15 QillaSaifullah -3.59 Qilla Saifullah 99.30 QillaSaifullah -2.54 Jhal Magsi 77.76

16 Kohlu -4.79 Nasirabad 102.60 Awaran -3.07 Qilla Saifullah 79.42

17 QillaAbdullah -5.52 Kohlu 103.42 Chaghi -3.28 Bolan 80.26

18 Nasirabad -5.68 Zhob 106.53 Jhal Magsi -3.30 Panjgur 81.40

19 Jafarabad -6.40 Jafarabad 108.78 Jafarabad -4.89 Jafarabad 82.04

20 Zhob -6.74 Jhal Magsi 111.66 Bolan -4.93 Awaran 82.51

21 Dera Bugti -7.40 Qilla Abdullah 112.86 Loralai -6.03 Loralai 84.69

22 Jhal Magsi -7.41 Awaran 113.19 Dera Bugti -7.39 Dera Bugti 93.39

23 Barkhan -7.55 Barkhan 113.33 Kohlu -9.28 Nasirabad 93.58

24 Awaran -7.77 Khuzdar 113.98 Nasirabad -10.21 Kohlu 96.50

25 Khuzdar -8.73 Dera Bugti 116.42 Musa Khel -10.30 Musa Khel 101.54

26 Musa Khel -15.73 Musa Khel 139.22 QillaAbdullah -10.73 Qilla Abdullah 104.28

29

Analysis (Contd.)

Overall Development level of Social well-being in 69% of the districts remain same.

While it has further declined in about 15% of the districts

4 4

46 46

4 8

38

50

0102030405060708090

100

HD D MD UD HD D MD UD

1998 2006-07

Level of Development

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Overall Development

30

• Trend in the Sectoral Development level of Social well-being at district level (Z-sum)


Overall Education Health Quality of Living Districts

98 2006-07 98 2006-07 98 2006-07 98 2006-07

Awaran 24 16 17 13 25 8 21 25 Barkhan 23 10 21 7 20 18 20 17 Bolan 9 20 7 15 16 25 13 12 Chaghi 13 17 16 14 6 12 10 22 Dera Bugti 21 22 15 21 23 22 23 20 Gwadar 8 8 14 19 3 9 5 3 Jafarabad 19 19 18 22 18 20 22 8 Jhal Magsi 22 18 22 18 22 16 15 10 Kalat 10 6 9 9 14 4 11 9 Ketch 7 4 6 4 12 11 6 5 Kharan 14 11 19 12 7 10 18 13 Khuzdar 25 13 23 16 24 6 19 14 Kohlu 16 23 12 23 10 7 25 26 Lasbilla 11 12 10 17 11 13 14 7 Loralai 12 21 13 20 8 14 9 23 Mastung 4 2 4 2 9 3 4 4 Musa Khel 26 25 25 25 26 24 26 21 Nasirabad 18 24 20 24 13 19 24 24 Panjgur 3 14 3 10 4 17 12 15 Pashin 5 7 8 11 15 23 3 2 Qilla Abdullah 17 26 26 26 21 26 2 11 Qilla Saifullah 15 15 11 8 19 21 17 18 Quetta 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 Sibbi 6 5 5 5 5 5 8 6 Zhob 20 9 24 6 17 15 16 19 Ziarat 2 3 2 3 1 2 7 16

33

Analysis continu.

In Education Sector 50% of the districts remain in the same development category However, 27% districts showed improvement in their development level

In Health Sector In 73% of the districts situation has improved While it is unchanged in about 19% of the districts

In Quality of Living significant improvement has been observed Situation has improved in about 69% of the districts While it remains same in only 23% of the districts

4

23

38 35

12 15

4231

80

5042

8

3831

23

4 8

27

62

15 19

46

19

0102030405060708090

100

HD D MD UD HD D MD UD

1998 2006-07

Level of Development

Perc

en

tag

e

Education Health Quality of Living

34

Objective 2

To identify the contributing factors of inter-district disparity

41

• Inter-relation among the selected Indicators

All the education related indicators are positively correlated with each other except teacher-student ratio

Medical professionals indicators are also highly correlated with each other

In addition, Access to water supply, electricity, and sanitation indicators are inter-correlated with each other

Inter-sector link exists between education and health and education and quality of living

Adult literacy, primary, and secondary enrolment indicators are positively correlated with child and maternal health indicators while they are weekly correlated with medical professionals indicators

Education has positive impact on quality of living as well

42

• Contributing Factors of inter-district Disparity

Firstly, full regression model is employed to identify the significant sector Socialit = a + b∆(Education)i + c∆(Health)i + d∆(Quality of Living)i

Result:

Socialit = 0.002 – 1.002 – 0.548 – 1.748** ------------------- (A)

(0.001) (-1.558) (-0.612) (-1.788)

Figures in the brackets represent t-statistics ** significance at 10% level of significance

43


To answer the questions of inter-district disparity explicitly, the following simple regression model is used

Socialit = a + b ∆Zij

Where

Socialit = Aggregate value of Z-score for district i in base year, and

∆Zij= Zic – Zib

∆Zij = relative change in Z-score during current and base year for

indicator j in district i. 18 coefficient along with their t-Statistics are calculated

44


Source: Calculation are based on Population Census 1998 and PSLM 2006-07 Note: * significance at 5% L.O.S ; ** significance at 10% L.O.S

Indicators b Coefficient t-Statistics Remarks

Adult literacy (male) -4.31 -1.404 Insignificant decrease in

disparity

Adult literacy (female) -1.35 -0.510 Insignificant decrease in

disparity

Primary enrollment (male) -4.99 * -3.263 Significantly decrease the

disparity

Primary enrollment (female) -2.81 -1.265 Insignificant decrease in

disparity

Secondary enrollment (male) -0.83 -0.403 No change in disparity

Secondary enrollment (female) 0.92 0.369 No change in disparity

Teacher-student ratio (primary) 0.74 0.358 No change in disparity

Teacher-student ratio (secondary)

-2.00 -0.824 Insignificant decrease in

disparity

Child immunization -3.71* -2.831 Significantly decrease the

disparity

Pregnant women TTI injection -2.96 ** -1.669 Significantly decrease the

disparity

Doctors per 10,000 population 10.12* 2.903 Significantly increase the

disparity Paramedical staff per 10,000 population 12.32 ** 1.659

Significantly increase the disparity

No. of beds per 10,000 population

-2.98 -0.300 Insignificant decrease in

disparity HH access to clean drinking water

-0.52 -0.192 No change in disparity

HH have sanitation facilities -4.19 * -2.068 Significantly decrease the

disparity

HH ownership -3.08 -0.889 Insignificant decrease in

disparity

Electricity as source of light -3.52 -1.574 Insignificant decrease in

disparity Natural gas/kerosene oil as source of energy for cooking

2.18 0.549 Insignificant increase in

disparity 45

Conclusion

Balochistan remains the most backward province in terms of social development indicators

Overall development level of social well-being of the districts more or less remain same in 2006-07 as compared to reference period of 1998

Quetta, which is the capital city is the only highly developed district, while Musa Khel continues to be the most backward district in the province

Mostly moderately developed and under developed districts altered their position either in upward or downward direction

46

Conclusion (Contd.)

Mastung is the only district which moved from moderately developed to developed category

As a whole sector-wise inter-district disparity is reduced significantly in terms of quality of living

Moreover, other factors of inter-district disparity reduction are primary enrollment, child immunization and sanitation facilities

While disparity has increased significantly in the availability of Doctors and paramedical staff

47

Recommendations

Allocation of financial resources to provinces should be based on multiple criteria i.e. population, area, and more importantly on developmental level of the province instead of population size only

To reduce the inter-district disparity government should focus more on less developed areas such as Qilla Abdullah, Musa Khel, Nasirabad, Kohlu, and Dera Bugti and allocate more resources for development of these areas

To improve the female enrollment at primary and particularly at secondary level government provide some scholarship (wazeefa) to the girls who are enrolled to encourage the girls who are not enrolled in the areas where enrollment rate is very low

48

Recommendations (Contd.)

To improve the quality of education government should give special salary package to the teachers working in those remote areas

To fulfill the gap of doctors and nurses government should introduce compulsory service for newly appointed medical professional to serve at least three years in those under developed areas

Electricity and gas facility should be expanded to the areas where this facility is not available

As a whole government should concentrate on less developed pockets of the province for future development plan and prioritize the sectors in which resources may have to be spent in future to reduce inter-district disparity

49

THANK YOU

50

inter-district assessment of people’s social well-being in balochistan province, pakistan ait 5 th...

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