intensive training course on education, employment and work: report

Intensive training course on

Education, Employment and Work

Intensive training course on

Education, Employment and Work N e w Delhi, India, 1-17 September 1987

Report by

Bikas С. S any al, Br ahm Prakash, TV. У. Varghese

International Institute for Educational Planning (established by Unesco)

T h e Swedish International Development Authority ( S I D A ) provided financial assistance for this Intensive Training Course

T h e views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of Unesco or of H E P .

This report has been typset using Unesco 's computer facilities and the Waterloo 'Script ' documentation-composition program.

Cover design by Paul Latsanopoulos

International Institute for Educational Planning 7-9 rue Eugène-Delacroix, 75116 Paris

© Unesco 1988

Resume of discussions

Contents

Introduction v

Part I: Resume of discussions 1

Introduction 3

Manpower approach to educational planning 7

Other approaches to relate education and employment: theories of labour

market 11

Strategies for a better match between education and employment 15

Part I: Lectures 21

Education and employment: a global development scenario 23

Education and employment: some basic concepts 40

Estimation of manpower demand and supply 51

Theories of the labour market 66

Tracer studies to relate education with employment 76

Education and productive work 86

Education and productive work: examples of concrete cases in India 90

Vocationalization of secondary education 96

Diversification of post-secondary education in relation to employment: the

international context 103

Diversification of post-secondary education in relation to employment with

special reference to India 109

Education employment linkages in the informal sector 118

Part II: Practical exercises 121

Diagnosis of the education/employment situation in Sri Lanka (Practical

exercise) 123

Diagnosis of the education/employment situation in Sri Lanka (Solution to

practical exercises) 134

M a n p o w e r planning: a simulation exercise (the case of Sri Lanka) 148

Practical exercises on tracer studies 168

Preparation of a questionnaire to collect information relating higher

education with employment: the case of Sri Lanka 178

Introduction

The background

The dynamics of employment is dependent on the economic and technological changes taking place in the country and outside. The relationship between education and employment is contingent upon this fact and determines the effectiveness of education in promoting employment. Given its acuteness, the problem of employment for educated youth has been the object of special attention of planners in recent years. The International Labour Office has observed that this problem, reflected in the incidence and duration of unemployment, has assumed critical dimensions in recent years on an international scale. The proportion or rate of unemployed in a given population group reflects the time span a graduate may have to wait before finding employment. It is also expressed as absorption rates "x" years after graduation.

Research carried out by the H E P , as well as elsewhere, demonstrates some relationship between the incidence of unemployment and the level of education. In some cases, the relationship, expressed graphically, takes the form of an "inverted U-shape", meaning that middle-level education graduates are less prone to be employed than primary school or higher education graduates. In some cases unemployment rates increase with the level of education of the job-seeker, and in some others decrease with it. This phenomenon has been the basis for the theory of "labour queue", according to which education is a critical background characteristic used by employers in ranking potential workers on the basis of their training costs. This may explain the increased social demand for education.

In respect of duration of educated unemployment, it appears that it is a sharply declining function of age, i.e. it is principally a problem of youth —at least for the developing countries, where nearly every educated individual who wishes to work ends up with a job but after some time. The waiting period to find the first job also varies by different types of educational specializations.

However, the unemployment phenomenon only reveals a fragment -of reality. In addition, there is enormous amount of underemployment in non-voluntary part-time work and in the under-utilization of job skills and capabilities. The ILO has categorized two types of underemployment: "visible underemployment". First, underemployment is characteristic of persons whose earnings are abnormally low or whose jobs do not permit full use of their capacities or skills. Second, those who are employed in establishments or economic units where productivity is abnormally low.

While industrialized countries are affected by unemployment, in most developing countries, underemployment of graduates is a more serious problem than their open unemployment. In countries where graduates are guaranteed employment, there is no open unemployment; however, under-employment is a common phenomenon, particularly of the invisible type. Such a situation is found in many socialist countries.

A m o n g others, both the issues viz. employment of educated youth and the role of education in providing skills for economic and social development have motivated researches in the field of economics and education to look for means of achieving a better relationship between education and employment.

As could be expected, they differ in their points of view about the nature of problem and the techniques of educational planning. One view is that education provides individ-

\

Introduction

uals with skills to develop and manage the economy along with its related services. It helps them to negotiate the terms of international co-operation in those areas. It follows, say the holders of this position, that investment in education is an investment in the productive and negotiating capacity of the people and consequently an investment in h u m a n capital. This is the " h u m a n capital" theory. Another view is that education not only provides skills for performing different vocational tasks, but also identifies and inculcates values conducive to promoting upward mobility. In this sense, education acts as a screening device to select the ablest people for the best jobs.

Yet another point of view takes a historical and general approach to the development of societies. Instead of a single labour market, it envisages several disjointed sub-markets. It emphasizes that it is the owners of the means of production w h o determine the main characteristics of labour markets across different types of employers and different types of jobs.

Each of the above viewpoints has different implications for educational policy. N o n e of them applies in its entirety to any one country. For example, while most people acknowledge that some "segmentation'1' prevails between the modern and the traditional sectors or between public enterprises, multinationals and the rest of the national private sector, it is pointed out that mobility between segments, and the role of education in this mobility, is greater than the "segmentation" theorists generally admit.

T h e present p r o g r a m m e

T h e differing points of view in respect of the relationship between education and employment have contributed in the evolution of the techniques of educational planning. O n e can observe improvements in the techniques of m a n p o w e r forecasts and a growing acknowledgement of its limits even in centrally planned economies. O n e can also observe the increase in consideration of factors of social d e m a n d and of the workings of the labour market (wage policy, recruitment, promotion and selection procedures) in educational planning and their incorporation in related policy formulations. A s a result, alternative structures and systems of education are being increasingly related to the employment system which in turn throws up n e w dimensions for the planning of education. T h e present training seminar was organized to familiarize and equip participants with skills to analyze education and employment situations in the developing countries of the Region.

Objectives of the p r o g r a m m e

T h e objectives of the training seminar were:

(a) T o sensitize the participants regarding the general context in which 'education and employment ' is to be analyzed;

(b) to familiarize the participants with the basic concepts and their application in the area of education and employment;

(c) to train participants in various techniques used to relate educational development to employment needs in the national or regional context; and to discuss alternate strategies to link education with employment.

VI

Introduction

Participation

The participants were drawn from countries of the South Asian Region. The participant countries included Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand and India (for details see the list attached). Participants were planners responsible for decision-oriented activities in the Ministries of Education, Planning and/or were academics from the universities or persons responsible for training educational planners at national or regional level.

Resource persons

Resource persons for the programmes were mainly drawn from the faculties of the organizing institutions namely, H E P , NIEPA and P R O U A P . In addition, experts were drawn from various organizations (see list of resource persons for details).

Venue and date

The programme was held at the National Institute of Educational Planning and Administration, N e w Delhi. The programme commenced on 1 September 1987 and concluded on 17 September 1987.

Boarding and lodging

NIEPA provided boarding and lodging facilities to all the participants.

Documentation

Reading materials on specific themes were identified/prepared and distributed to the participants. The documents circulated consisted of (a) background papers which were on the theme but not specifically confining to any single theme; (b) teaching materials which were session —specific. In fact each lecture on a specific theme had a document distributed in advance; (c) country papers brought by the participants.

In addition many of the participants made use of the NIEPA library facilities.

Inaugural

The programme was inaugurated by Prof. Sylvain Lourié, Director, П Е Р , and Shri J. Veeraraghavan, Secretary, Ministry of H u m a n Resource Development, Government of India, N e w Delhi. This was followed by a keynote address by Professor Satya Bhushan, Director, NIEPA.

Vll

Introduction

Valediction

The programme came to an end in the afternoon on 17th September 1987. Prof. Gautam Mathur, Director, Institute of Applied Manpower Research, N e w Delhi delivered the valedictory address.

Miscellaneous

In addition to these curricular programmes the participants during the week ends went for sight seeing in the city and also to Agra.

In addition to the classroom lectures and group work participants were also shown two films on the theme. The films shown were on (i) Diploma disease; and (ii) Education and productive work.

Vlll

Part I


i

Module 1

Introduction !

This module is divided into two sections: (i) a global development scenario which explains the context in which education and employment are to be analyzed; and (ii) basic concepts which introduces some of the essential concepts useful in understanding and analyzing education and employment situation in any country.

1.1 Global development scenario

In the context of education employment relations, education is essentially seen in its economic dimensions—its impact on the productive labour force as a key instrument in promoting economic and social development. The attempt is to identify the forces which affect the relationship between patterns of educational distribution in occupations by sectors of economic activity and expected outputs of school and training programmes.

1.1.1 Role of education

The role of education in promoting and sustaining economic development can be convincingly illustrated from the growth patterns of many of the countries. For example in Japan advancement in technology, industrial rationalization and productivity growth depended on the introduction of professional skill in the areas of science and technology. Korea's prominence in export of quality controlled manufactured goods is, to a very large extent, due to its exceptional reserve of qualified school graduates. China's gradual industrialization and technical progress were due to the importance given to adapting emerging local k n o w - h o w to modern criteria. In all the three cases it can be said that education, employment and training were inter woven into general fabric.

1.1.2 The sectoral shifts

The sectoral composition in developing countries over the last two decades has shown certain shifts. First, the share of agriculture in G D P has declined and correspondingly that of the industry and services has increased. Second, the proportion of labour force engaged in agriculture has declined and correspondingly its proportion in industry and services has gone up. Third, there has been more improvement in productivity (measured in terms of G D P divided by labour force in each sector) in industry than in agriculture. Thus, it is not only that the share of labour force in industry that has increased but that its productivity has also increased. Industry, slowly but steadily, is emerging as a prominent sector in the developing countries.

1.1.3 Role of technology

Industrial development depends on technological development. Technological development m a y be indigenous or as a result of imported technology. Technology import results in dependency on the developed nations. Therefore the attempt in the developing countries is to develop technology indigenously rather than resorting to a policy of technology import. This follows from the belief in the primacy of indigenous technology to facilitate self-sustaining economic growth. Needless to say that education has a tremendous role in

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Intensive Training Course on Education, Work and Employment

technological development.

The "application of practical and theoretical knowledge to production through a sequential succession of techniques" is the essence of technological change. Such technological changes can exist if prior research and testing have taken place. Thus technological development is intrinsically associated with the extent of Research and Development ( R & D ) activities prevailing in any economy. As the present day technological development is the result of past R & D activities, the future technological development depends on the present ventures in R & D . The role of research becomes crucial in this context as it determines the potential technological developments.

The global pattern of development has shown that over the years disparities between the developed and less developed economies, have widened. These could be attributed to the disparities in the rates of technical changes witnessed in these two groups. Such disparities have led to polarization of development and underscore the necessity of technological developments in developing countries. In this sense, technological development has become a survival question for the developing world.

1.1.4 The challenge

The challenge before the developing world is to make a rational choice between technological development for long term and self sustained growth on the one hand and amelioration of poverty which is immediate and imminent on the other. Where technology is a must for survival, education and training policies become key areas of intervention to prepare people and society for new technological culture and to ensure more flexible labour force. Given the fact that technological developments are often labour displacing, it adds another dimension to the challenges of the developing countries.

Unemployment is persisting in all the developing countries and is increasing over the years. Therefore any policy to adopt labour displacing techniques of production (which is inherent in technological developments), adds to the already aggravated situation of unemployment. Moreover, unemployment and poverty are associated factors. Direct attack on poverty which has to be immediate, implies generation of employment. O n the other hand embarking upon a policy of technological change, while essential and unavoidable, will result in short term unemployment. The governments of the developing nations, in this sense, are faced with the duality inherent in growth objectives and have to make the crucial choice. This is the challenge for the developing nations in the present day context.

1.1.5 The option

The challenge of technology requires changes in basic curricula and provision of a broad-based work-related education for young people. In addition, vocational and professional training should have proximity with a production place. Many a government may not have adequate resource to meet these two educational objectives. Therefore governments have to increasingly seek the financial and professional involvement of production sectors in training of the nations' future scientific technological and industrial cadres. Such a widening of participation will give the government an opportunity to spend their resources on the education of the masses without compromising with the need for R & D which is so crucial for the survival and sustenance of these countries.

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1.2 Basic concepts

There are various concepts essential in analyzing education and employment . Since the definitions tend to vary, a discussion on s o m e of the basic concepts becomes necessary to facilitate communication in the workshop.

1.2.1 Labour force

Labour force comprises of all economically active population. It includes both employed and unemployed. Labour force participation rate ( L F P R ) is the percentage of total labour force to total population. Generally population aged ten and above is considered for calculating L F P R . Labour force participation rates exhibit certain general pattern:

(a) L F P R of m e n and w o m e n below the age of 25 declines with increase in access to higher education;

(b) L F P R of men and women above the age of sixty decline with increase in old age benefits and other social security provisions; and

(c) L F P R of females varies accordingly to cultural traditions. It is also quite sensitive to total income of the family.

1.2.2 Emp loyment.

Employed persons are those w h o are working and receiving a wage. E m p l o y m e n t has three aspects: income, output and recognition. Very often distinctions are also m a d e between employment , work and self employment . W a g e becomes an important criterion to distinguish employment . W o r k is a broader concept which is m o r e related to the social roles of an individual and it does not necessarily imply a wage; i.e., the criterion of 'being paid' cannot.be applied in the case of work . Self-employment is different from wage employment . T h e self-employed engage themselves in productive activities and m a k e an earning.

E m p l o y m e n t can be classified according to economic activities and occupational categories. In general, with economic development the proportion of labour force engaged in primary sector comes d o w n and that in the secondary and tertiary sectors go up . Thus the pattern of distribution of workers in a country indicates the level of economic development achieved by an economy.

Related to employment are the notions of under-employment and unemployment . U n d e r employment exists w h e n persons in employment are not working full time and are willing and able to work for a longer duration. Under-employment is of two types-visible and invisible. Visible under-employment means working less than the normal hours of work . Invisible under-employment exists if m o r e people are engaged in an activity than would be needed to produce the output which they produce. Earnings of invisible under-employed will be low and they are utilized les than their full capacity.

1.2.3 Unemployment

U n e m p l o y m e n t is a state of not working. U n e m p l o y m e n t can be voluntary or involuntary. Involuntarily unemployed are those w h o are not working but seeking employment at the on going wage rate. U n e m p l o y m e n t in general refers to the involuntarily u n e m ployed. Based on the factors affecting it, unemployment is categorized into frictional,

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structural, cyclical, seasonal etc. Disguised unemployment is very c o m m o n in less developed economies. Disguised unemployment exists when withdrawal of a part of the labour force from the traditional field of production would leave the total output unchanged. In technical terms it means marginal productivity of labour is zero.

1.2.4 c Labour market

Employment and unemployment will be reflected in the labour market. Labour market was traditionally considered to decide the wages which is the price for labour. However, in the latter explanations wages are fixed to jobs and therefore main function of the labour market is to adjust between m e n and jobs and wages are automatically determined. The radical explanations consider labour markets as divided into primary and secondary labour market. S o m e of the versions further subdivide the primary into several segments. Primary segments of the labour market are characterized by high wage, employment stability, better promotion possibilities etc., whereas secondary labour markets are characterized by low wage, with no stability in employment. Labour turn over is high in the secondary labour market.

Labour mobility is the movement of labour. Labour mobility can be between different regions (spatial) or from one employment status to another (vertical) or from one occupation to another (horizontal).

1.2.5 Wages

W a g e in the wider sense is the reward for the factor of production namely labour. In its narrow and more commonly used sense wages refer to payment to workers and employed persons.

T w o important bases for wage determinants are: (i) payment by time; and (ii) payment by results. Salary paid to the employees is perhaps the best example of payment by time. Payment by result is related to the actual work done. The work done can be measured in terms of: (a) piece work; or (b) time allowances. In the former payment is according to the number of output he has produced i.e. output is priced as the criterion for payment. A n d in the latter the output is fixed and he is paid as per the normal time than actual time taken to finish the output.

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Module 2

Manpower approach to educational planning 2

Manpower approach is one of the most commonly used approaches to plan education. This approach argues that provision of supply of adequate manpower with varied skills is the main function of the educational system and therefore education should be planned as per the manpower requirements. The projection of demand for different categories of manpower forms the basis of determining enrolments and provision of educational facilities in the schools and colleges.

2.1 Methods of manpower estimate

There are various methods to estimate manpower demand. Perhaps the simplest method is to ask each employer regarding his future requirements of manpower. In micro situations this is applicable. However, for planning at the macro level it is difficult to rely upon this method. Alternatively, sometimes international comparison method is used to plan education. This method involves in observing the occupational and educational structure of a country at a more advanced level of development and hypothesize that this is the desired structure for the country for which the forecast is made. Similarly sometimes model firm comparison methods are used to derive the occupational structure. In this approach the occupational structure of the most modern and efficient firms within a country considered as the ideal one is examined and the occupational structure of that firm is used to plan education. Incremental Labour Output Ratio (ILOR) and density ratio methods are also used to project manpower. ILOR method extrapolates particular type of manpower in an occupational category and its corresponding output or national income. Density ratio method consists of estimating stable fractions of qualified manpower in an economic sector and applying these to the total labour force forecasts in various sectors.

2.2 The M R P method

The method that was adopted as the method for forecasting manpower in this training programme was the methodology used in the O E C D ' s Mediterranean Regional Project ( M R P ) . This methodology was adopted for two reasons : (i) this is the most commonly used method for manpower forecasts in many countries; and (ii) it provides detailed and systematic steps for manpower planning. M R P methodology involves five main steps in assessing the required number of workers by educational levels in the target year of the plan.

The first step is to estimate the future level of output (GDP) for the target year. This estimated G D P is very often divided by the total population and expressed in terms of G D P per capita. The next step is to estimate the structural transformation of the economy or the distribution of G D P by economic sectors. In general in all the developing countries the share of primary sectors will be very high. But during the process of development the share of agricultural sector comes down and that of manufacturing and service sectors goes up. Therefore, this change envisaged in each sector is to be estimated and incorporated because such structural changes will have direct implications so far as

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the nature of labour skills demanded is concerned. Very often the structural changes depend upon the growth rates in each industry which are often predetermined by policy.

The third step is the estimation of labour productivity by economic sector for the targeted year. Measurement of labour productivity itself is subject to controversies. However, for the purpose at hand labour productivity is defined in a very crude form as the sectoral G D P divided by the number of workers in that sector. Estimation of labour productivity for the targeted year will help us in deriving the number of workers required in the target year. The figures for sectoral G D P (step II) have already been estimated. Sectoral G D P divided by the labour productivity in that sector gives the required number of workers in that sector. And their summation across the sectors gives us the total number of workers.

The fourth step involves estimating the occupational structure of the labour force in each of the economic sectors. Mostly international standard classification of occupations is used to categorize the workers into different occupations. The relative position of each occupation may change. Some occupations may attract more qualified workers, while others may remain the same or reduce the deployment of labour force.

The fifth step is to estimate the educational structure of the labour force in the given occupations in different economic sectors. This involves estimating educational levels of the workers in each occupational category.

Each occupation will have persons with different levels of education. The proportion of different levels of educated within each occupation is computed. This proportion forms the basis for future projections. Based on the projections of this proportion for the target year, the educational levels of workers in each occupation are estimated. It may be noted that since the total number of workers is already estimated (in step III), this gives the workers by educational levels in all occupation. A n aggregation of workers by levels of education across occupations gives the total number of workers required by occupational levels. To work out the total number of workers by levels of education in each occupational category in each economic activity is the main task of this exercise.

2.3 Estimation of manpower supply

Next, an attempt is made to project the number of persons with the required levels of education over time. The projection of manpower supply takes this into account. The expansion of educational system can either be strictly planned on the basis of required manpower or be a result of the spontaneous expansion based on social demand. Very often expansion of the educational system in the developing countries is based on the social demand approach. In this context demographic factors influence and determine enrolments in the primary levels of education, and the pattern of students flow between classes and stages determines the number of graduates produced by the system. The participation rates of graduates of each level give the number of persons actually available for work.

Methods of projection of manpower supply in its simplest form is based on the students' flow rates. Any student entering the educational system can have only three possibilities—either he or she is promoted to the next grade or is a dropout from the school or is a repeater in the same grade. Based on all these three possibilities the flow rate method estimates the number of graduates for any given number of enrolled students with the help of promotion, repetition and dropout rates. Depending upon these three

8


factors one can decide the excess number of students to be enrolled in each level of education to get the projected number of graduates as workers. This also has to be adjusted for the labour force participation rates of each level of educated. Once the enrolments are estimated provisions of other educational facilities can be planned.

2.4 Balancing demand and supply

Once the demand for and supply of manpower are estimated, the next step involved is to balance between the two. This step is more important if supply estimates are based on the social demand rather than on estimations of manpower demand. This adjustment or balancing is an iterative process whereby both demand and supply aspects may be adjusted. It may be noted that it is not the total number of graduates but the number adjusted for the participation rate that is used for balancing supply to manpower estimations with the use of computers this process has become easier.

2.5 A n overview

Manpower approach to plan education is in general criticized at two levels. First, at the philosophical level where treating educational system as a factory to produce the manpower to be used in the production sectors as the only function of education is questioned. It is considered to be a narrow and partial view. In fact education is emphasized for good many non-economic and non-employment reasons. Therefore, considering this model as the basis for educational planning is not desirable. Second, this approach is criticized on the ground that even when this approach may be desirable, it is not feasible because of the difficulties in making reliable manpower estimates. Discussions in the group tended to focus around the difficulties of applying this approach rather than the desirability of this approach.

Manpower estimates are based on the assumptions of fixed co-efficients of production and non-substitutability of different categories of manpower. There are different problems associated with these two assumptions. Firstly, it is very difficult to estimate the relevant parameters accurately. The issue of estimating labour productivity was taken as an instance. Measurement of productivity of itself is controversial and hence its accuracy and reliability are not beyond doubt. Second, to assume these parameters to be constant in their value over a period of time is far from the real world situation. In fact, the present day world is characterized by changes, marginal or substantial, in these parameters depending upon various factors which directly influence economic development. This phase of development is characterized by fast changing technology. And these technological changes are not easily amenable to reliable forecast which indirectly invalidates the assumption on the constancy of co-efficient of production. Another factor which further complicates the situation, is that technological changes are not always endogenous especially in the case of developing countries. Technological changes and decisions on them depend upon the international context in which the particular country is placed. In the case of most of the developing countries they depend to a great extent on the developed countries for technological advancement. But how far a country actually is amenable to changes from outside depends on the national policy. If the economy is more open then the role of influence of exogenous factors on development will be more. The specific cases of Sri Lanka and China came in for detailed discussion in this context.

Related to this is the pattern of development of economy. Manpower approach assumes that there exists a reliable economic planning in the economy. Therefore this

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Intensive Training Course on Educado?!, Work and Employment

approach is not applicable if economic planning is non-existent. Manpower planning is based on the envisaged path and rate of growth of the economy as assumed by the economic planning. However, it is to be noted that this approach does not presume a socialist or centrally planned economy. In fact M R P project was for non-socialist and market based economies. What is more crucial is that there should be economic planning to provide the manpower planners with G D P and its sectoral distribution for the target year. This approach is dependent upon these factors. Many a time, rates of economic growth fall short of the targets. Under such circumstances, it is natural that the manpower projections could be wrong. Perhaps, the manpower planner should not be blamed for this. O n the other hand, if economic growth takes place as planned and still manpower projections go wrong, then the responsibility will be with the manpower planners.

Many a time manpower forecasts take into account the formal system of education. In all economies, skill formation through the non-institutional means or outside the educational system is quite common. This is more so in the informal sectors of the economy. In the manpower planning many a time this aspect is not given due consideration. Same is the case with on-the-job training which is common with many employers. This job-specific and firm-specific information is not easily available and hence does not get taken into account while estimating manpower supply.

If one allows market forces to be taken into account, then manpower planning becomes more difficult. One may notice that costs of education and relative earnings of individuals are not taken into account while forecasting manpower. In fact, it needs to be emphasized at this point that the term used is manpower 'requirement' than manpower 'demand'. This approach again does not take into account the costs of producing the projected manpower. In the labour market one finds that wages and hiring practises are sensitive to the demand and supply conditions of educated manpower. In many an instance wages are fixed to jobs than to the qualifications of individuals. However, recruitment pattern undergoes a change when there is unemployment. This change will be in favour of more qualified personnel. Employers, in their recruitment policy prefer persons with higher levels of qualifications. This policy leads to various types of distortions in the labour market and the assumption of non-substitutability of different categories of manpower gets violated under such circumstances. Eventually the education occupation relation also gets distorted. In most of the countries, this problem is more pronounced in the general education based occupations than in the professional and technical education based occupations.

Many other difficulties in this approach were also focussed upon in the discussions. But it was pointed out that at least some of these problems stem from non-availability of detailed data. In this context the need for developing a systematic data base as a basic input into the manpower planning was highlighted. Because of the difficulties confronted, some of the participants expressed the view that manpower analysis may be preferred to manpower forecasting. It was also emphasized that some of the difficulties expressed are common to any type of forecast and is not strictly confined to manpower forecasts. In general it was agreed upon that manpower forecasting provides broad directions and guidelines for development of educational systems. Therefore, exclusive reliance on the exactness of the projected figures is not always desirable. It was felt that manpower planning should be seen as a method to provide guidelines rather than as a method to give precise numbers. A caution was added that even when this approach is resorted to, this by itself should not be seen as the only approach to plan education. Instead, this along with other approaches should be adopted, depending upon specificities of the country.

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Module 3

Other approaches to relate education and employment:

theories of labour market з

M a n p o w e r planning is based on the assumptions of fixed relationship between input of skilled m a n p o w e r and the level of output in the economy and a reliable correspondence between level and types of education and job categories. These assumptions do not hold good especially in the present day context of m a n y economies. Therefore, alternative theories of labour market, in contrast to m a n p o w e r approach c a m e into existence. Perhaps, the most prominent a m o n g them is the h u m a n capital version.

3.1 H u m a n capital theory

H u m a n capital theory postulates that expenditure on education is a form of investment—an investment in h u m a n beings. Like investment in any form, investment in h u m a n beings gives return. This return is reflected in the earnings of the educated. T h e theory postulates that schooling enhances skill and dexterity of individuals which in turn enhances the productivity of the workers. Workers are paid as per their contribution to the total national product. In other words, wages are paid according to the marginal productivity theory of distribution. Hence educated earn m o r e than their less educated counterparts.

H u m a n capital model is based on three basic assumptions:

(a) Markets are competitive which enable prices to be used as a measure of relative demand.

(b) Prices of goods and services change in response to changes in demand and supply; and

(c) Techniques of production are flexible enough to substitute capital for labour and between different levels of educated people.

In fact h u m a n capital theory forms the basis for rate of return analysis. Rate of return analysis compares the net present value of costs of and benefits from education. Costs of education includes both direct and opportunity costs. Benefits of education generally take into account those which are directly measurable. T h e stream of life time earnings adjusted by a discount rate is taken into account. There are various problems associated with the measurement of earnings and hence on the estimations of rate of returns.

Earnings depend on various factors. Therefore specification of earnings function is very important. T h e variables taken into account m a y vary from situation to situation. However , it is believed that education plays an important role in determining the earnings of an individual. Very often multivariate analysis is resorted to identify and isolate the extent of influence exerted by various factors influencing earnings. S o m e of the important variables influencing earnings and which are quite often taken into account in the multi-

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varíate analysis are education, father's income, father's occupation etc. Rates of return studies, in general show that:

(a) Investment in education is profitable;

(b) private rates of return are higher than social rates of return for any given level of education;

(c) rates of returns tend to be highest in primary education;

(d) rates of returns tend to be higher in less developed countries.

3.2 Screening hypothesis

Another approach which questioned s o m e of the postulations of h u m a n capital theory is k n o w n as screening hypothesis. Screening hypothesis in general agree with the fact that higher educated are m o r e productive. Howeve r , they disagree with the fact that this higher productivity is due to education. O n the other hand screening hypothesis considers that higher educated are m o r e talented and what schooling does is to screen out or identify the m o r e talented from the less talented. In this sense education acts as a convenient filter which enables employers to identify those with superior ability. Extreme version of screening hypothesis implies that education has no direct effect on skill inculcation. Thus if one could find some alternative way of screening, the expenditure on education could be deemed to be waste of public resources. However , the empirical evidence to prove whether higher earnings is due to higher productivity, or due to innate abilities is difficult to obtain.

There are two versions of the screening hypothesis. In its strong version, it suggests that education does nothing to improve workers' productivity. In this case one might predict that the earning differentials of educated workers would narrow over time, as employers begin to use direct evidence of workers' performance on the job to determine wages or salaries rather than educational qualifications. In its weak version the hypothesis shows that education acts as a screening device, but that this is socially useful, since it enable employers to identify those with positive attitudes towards work and the ability to pick up skills quickly.

3.3 Education escalation and competition for jobs

There are other explanations of the labour market process which lay emphasis on the changing hiring practices of the employers w h e n there is unemployment . Employer's in general follow a policy of preferential hiring practice whereby m o r e qualified persons are given a preference in the recruitment. This eventually leds to bumping out of lower level educated persons from the labour market. This will have a direct influence on the d e m a n d for education. Every prospective employee finds that since employers have enhanced the hiring standards, one has to seek higher levels of education to maintain one's relative position in the labour market. This will encourage higher d e m a n d for education. It- can be seen that in this type of explanation persistence of unemployment distorts education employment relations.

Another version of the labour market theory c o m m o n l y k n o w n as job competition model considers that trainability as the trait which is valued high by the employer in the

12


labour market. Persons with higher levels of education are easily trainable and therefore, their training costs will be less. Therefore, employers hire m o r e educated people to reduce the training costs. In this sense education becomes significant for job entry. However , actual wages will be determined on the basis of productivity which is directly related to the skills picked up during on-the-job training.

3.4 Segmented labour markets

Another explanation based on the Marxian framework view labour market as segmented. In its initial version labour markets were divided into mode rn and traditional sectors or into primary and secondary labour markets. Primary labour markets are characterized by modern techniques of production, high wages, and stability of employment. Secondary labour markets are characterized by traditional techniques of production, low wages, no employment stability and jobs are mostly dead end ones. Later versions of segmented labour market, sub-divides the primary segment into two—upper tier and lower tier. Jobs in the upper tier of the primary segment require decision making capacities while jobs in the lower tier are characterized by routine activities.

M o r e advanced and m o r e radical versions of the segmented labour market divides the labour markets into four segments:

(a) T h e monopoly sector;

(b) competitive sector with high wages;

(c) competitive sector with low wages; and

(d) crafts' segment.

Educational qualifications and the class origins of the recruitees to each of these segments vary. T h e class origins become an important factor for job entry. A n d in a typical capitalist society education itself is unequally distributed and accessibility is related to the class origins. Therefore, while using education for job entry it indirectly tells us about the class origins.

3.5 Tracer studies

T h e inter-dependence between educational development and the over-all socio-economic development of a country calls for an analysis of the resource potential in natural, physical and h u m a n categories. T h e exploitation of natural resources depends on the development of h u m a n resources and vice-versa. H u m a n resource potential is influenced by demographic changes. Education plays a significant role in developing h u m a n resources. Therefore, there is a need to plan education to develop h u m a n resources. Educational achievement of individuals is influenced by the conditions of employment or unemployment , the recruitment and promotion policy. That is to say the development of h u m a n resource is dependent on the operation of labour market and the prevailing employment policy.

At the micro-level an analysis of the relationship between education and employment has to take into account the back-ground characteristics, attitudes and expectations of individual h u m a n beings. T h e economy and society and to s o m e extent education influ-

13


ence the behaviour, attitudes, preferences and expectations of the individual. T h e important micro characteristics on which one needs information are:

(a) Individual characteristics like age, sex, martial status etc.

(b) Family characteristics like family size, education, occupation etc.

(c) C o m m u n i t y characteristics like caste, religion, urban, rural etc.

(d) Early educational characteristics like type of school, academic performance, type of education etc.

The educational career of an individual is directly influenced by educational expectations. The family background and future expectations decide the institutions in which one is to study, field of study pursued, academic performance etc. The occupational career of an individual, on the other hand depends on educational career, labour market situation, occupational expectations etc. The career information received, placement services used, recruitment method adopted, type of post held etc. are important factors in occupational career.

The basic thrust of this approach, is that the education system can change the characteristics of the individuals, families and the community so as to m a k e the transition from institutions of education to work smooth. This method involves tracing back the history of each individual from his present position with respect to all micro-characteristics which are detailed above. In some cases tracer studies are also undertaken by following a cohort of students by eliciting information on their positions at fixed intervals say at five years over a period of time. In both cases one is tracing—whether forward or backward—the important socio-economic characteristics of an individual.

A s can be seen this method involves a lot of data collection on various aspects. So far as macro information are concerned data can be collected from the secondary sources. For micro characteristics data are to be collected from the primary sources. Generally in tracer studies samples are drawn from the students, graduates, employees, unemployed, employers etc. A n d detailed questionnaire method is used to collect data on micro-characteristics.

14

Module 4

Strategies for a better match between education and

employment4

4.1 Education a n d productive w o r k

W o r k was never degraded in any society. But the status of being a worker was considered to be infra dig. This was partly due to the dichotomy that existed between intellectual and manual w o r k . This dichotomy could exist in the early periods because of various reasons. First, the technology of production was of very low order and work done was mainly manua l in nature. Second, education had not well developed into a system whereby it is treated as a major source of production of skilled m a n p o w e r . Education in the traditional sense meant involving in intellectually curious but socially less useful activities.,

Industrial revolution brought out changes in this m o d e of thinking essentially emanating from the developments in the economic structure. Post-industrial revolution period required a large n u m b e r of skilled m a n p o w e r to maintain, if not to further advance, the technological developments achieved during the industrial revolution. This necessitated a change in the educational and the production system. Production c a m e to be centred around factories employing large n u m b e r of workers with varying skills. A n d system of training for these skills became necessary. Increasingly this role was assumed by the educational institutions. In other words, educational system b e c a m e a major source of developing skilled m a n p o w e r .

T h e need to link education with work is emphasized by philosophers from very early periods. H o w e v e r , this assumed significance in the recent periods because of economic reasons. Over the years,the changes in the production sectors, primarily due to technological advances, were very fast and very often the educational system could not respond favourably and instantaneously to these changes in the production field. In the colonial countries the deteriorating linkage between education and work has another dimension. T h e colonies borrowed, to a greater extent, the educational system from the imperial nations which did not have any link with the work situations in these countries. Different countries follow different strategies to link education with w o r k .

In the present context the need to link education and productive work is felt mainly on the grounds of teaching the students the dignity of h u m a n labour; to appreciate traditional link between m a n and nature so as to m a k e development m o r e indigenous and self-sustaining; and to prepare children to participate increasingly in productive work while they are in the school and after they leave the school.

T h e method through which education can be integrated with work can be either through (a) integrating work experience in the educational process or (b) by taking education to work situations. T h e suggested stages in this process are:

(a) Introduction of work oriented vocational courses separately.;

Prepared by Brahm Prakash and N . V . Varghese

15


(b) Introduction of work experience as an optional course as well as vocational subjects in all general secondary schools.

(c) Introduction of work experience as a compulsory subject for all general secondary schools.

(d) Extension of work experience to senior secondary schools.

(e) Introduction of work experience in the perspective of life long education.

Programmes to link school education with work exist in almost all countries. T h e S U P W (Socially Useful Productive W o r k ) p r o g r a m m e of India and C o m m u n i t y School p rog ramme of Bangladesh are live examples of attempts to link school education with work . H o w e v e r , in all countries implementation of such programmes are subjected to difficulties of varied nature and success of such programmes is only to a limited extent.

4.2 Vocationalization

Schooling system attempts to equip students with adequate skills to enable them to enter into the world of work. Imparting of such skills makes the transition from schools to places of work smoother. Programmes of work experience in schools help the students to familiarize with work where as vocationalization helps in picking up and practicing skills which are useful on the job.

Irrespective of the nature of the p r o g r a m m e , the progression of events from orientation to work to employment can be noted in stages. T h e first stage is learning about work . This stage m a y be descriptive and theoretical. T h e next stage is 'work observation' in which students are given a chance to see and observe actual work and work situations. W o r k observation is followed by providing students with s o m e work experience. W o r k experience can be of two types—one intended to 'taste' the work and the other 'exploratory' in nature. T h e n comes the stage for vocationalization of education. Vocationalization facilitates learning and practicing skills. Learning and practicing of skills enhances one's o w n work experience which eventually equips one to regular employment .

Vocationalization is introduced with the objectives of:

(a) Providing knowledge about the world of work .

(b) Inculcating practical skills.

(c) Improving motivation of students.

(d) Inculcating positive attitudes which help in improving the employability as well as productivity of individuals.

(e) Improve the links between school and work .

(f) I m p r o v e career choices.

(g) Imparting knowledge and skills needed for employment .

16


A r g u m e n t s for vocationalization centre around increased employability of vocationally educated; improving the quality of education by providing relevant education; improving e c o n o m i c efficiency in terms of returns to education a n d equity objectives. Critics of vocationalization point out that vocational schools d o not enhance e m p l o y m e n t opportunities and m a n y a time students from vocational stream are treated to b e inferior in the e m p l o y m e n t marke t . It also creates inequities in society b y providing vocational education to the poor and academic education to the elite. M o r e o v e r , cost of vocational education, very often, are very high a n d returns from it are not very high.

T h e empirical evidence o n the e m p l o y m e n t and earning potentials of the graduates are not very encouraging. R e v i e w of world b a n k projects concluded that:

(a) Vocationalization was successful in meeting quantitative targets of m a n p o w e r .

(b) Vocationalization did not change pupils' attitudes towards practical and manual work.

(c) Vocationalization did not result in improving the quality of education.

(d) There were serious doubts about the cost effectiveness of diversification projects.

(e) Vocational education in diversified schools did not increase either the chances of employment or the earnings of school leavers.

(f) T h e rate of return to vocational streams is often lower than to academic streams.

(g) Vocational education did not reduce the private d e m a n d for higher education.

Despite all these negative points vocationalization is emphasized in all developing countries as an effective strategy to link education and employment . This m a y partly be due to the fact that vocationalization has not yet b e c o m e wide-spread to take advantage of the economies of scale. Vocationalization in the initial stages involve a high investment. With wide-spreading of vocationalization the per student cost m a y perhaps be coming d o w n . M o r e significantly, the scheme has not been in operation for a long enough period to m a k e an assessment regarding its cost-effectiveness. Therefore, emphasis on vocationalization as a strategy to link education and employment finds a place in the policy formulation of m a n y of the countries.

4.3 Diversification of post-secondary education

In response to the changes in the production sector and thereby changing skill needs, education especially at the post-secondary level needs to be diversified. Diversification becomes all the m o r e essential w h e n technological changes are very fast. In the present context there are m a n y compulsions to diversify post-secondary education:

(a) Education objectives have b e c o m e m o r e diversified.

(b) D e m a n d for education by new client groups like adult learners, disadvantaged and handicapped youth etc. has necessitated diversification.

(c) Widening of the process of resource mobilization, allocation and utilization has resulted in the diversification of higher education.

17


(d) N e w modes of programme delivery and management contributed to diversification.

Linking education with work through diversification of higher education involves (a) development of relevant courses; (b) modularization of courses; (c) combination of courses to cut across the disciplines; (d) flexibility in course options; (e) orientation of teachers; (f) proper mechanisms of resource allocation and utilization; and (g) introduction of proper planning and management practices.

Diversification in the traditional formal system takes place either by restructuring of the existing courses or by introducing n e w courses. Diversification all over the world has resorted to one or the other form though the specific reasons for introduction of diversification m a y vary between countries. In Germany , for example, diversification was introduced with the twin objectives of increasing participation of workers in management and meeting the needs of specific skills by upgrading the work force within the firm. Similarly experiments in industrial democracy for increasing workers participation in decision making necessitated introduction of diversification of education in Sweden.

In India, establishment of industrial training institutes, polytechnics, engineering colleges, institutes of technology, institutes of management are examples of attempts to diversity post-secondary level of education. In the field of agriculture education opening of agricultural universities paved the way for wider scope for diversification. The University Grants Commission initiated a scheme of restructuring under graduate courses in India. The response from the universities was not very encouraging. However, of late attempts are m a d e by m a n y universities to restructure courses.

In the present day context diversification takes place through n e w modes of delivery system. Correspondance courses and O p e n University system are very significant from this point of view. O p e n University system was initiated in England in 1969 with the objective of increasing accessibility to higher education for those w h o could not otherwise have access to it. Ever-since O p e n University was established in England m a n y other countries are trying to follow the same path. Thailand and Pakistan have their O p e n Universities. In India too O p e n University at the National level is already established in 1986 and attempts are under way to start O p e n Universities at State levels. The American programme of co-operative education and workers colleges in China are examples of attempts to integrate on-campus classroom study with off-campus work experience. In Pakistan open universities have taken employ ability as the sole criterion for its operation. The university does not offer courses in the traditional system. It can be seen that diversification can be through the introduction of new courses or by restructuring of the existing courses or through correspondence courses or through open learning systems.

Positive consequences of diversification are m a n y : (i) it provides job specific skills; (ii) it incorporates latest developments in science and technology; (iii) it permits the traditional formal education to compete with n e w types of delivery systems; and (iv) it continuously updates educational programmes to cope with changing skill needs in the production sectors.

Diversification has posed problems of management. With diversification the network of delivery system becomes really difficult to co-ordinate, monitor and manage. In other words the traditional management system has to undergo changes to respond to the management challenges created by diversification. Financial and other difficulties stand in the way of diversification. Despite the difficulties, diversification is considered to be a concerted effort by our higher education system to respond to the changing societal needs.

18


4.4 Informal sector

The session on information sector focussed on the role of this sector in the process of development. It was pointed out that during the last two decades this sector had emerged as a significant area of research. Several policy analysts have evinced their interest in its functioning and its possible uses for broadening the scope of development. It was pointed out that during the 70s several studies were undertaken under World Employment Programme of I L O in most of the leading cities of the developing countries.

It was observed that informal sector tended to be chimerical in character and took different forms under different socio-economic conditions. Consequently comparisons in the observed pattern of informal sectors in one city could not be straightway m a d e with the formal sector elsewhere. However, this is not to say that there are no c o m m o n underlying theoretical postulate which can help one to have a more comprehensive and cohesive view of this proliferated reality.

S o m e of these postulate were then articulated in the presentation. Several instances of the informal sector from the city of B o m b a y based on I L O standard study were provided. Data relating to work force participation, their pattern of employment and related occupational characteristics were discussed. Keeping in view the focus of the seminar the evidence on the informal sector was also presented by stratifying it according to educational levels.

19

Part II Lectures

Lecture 1

Education and employment: a global development scenario

by S. Lourié

1.1 Introduction: Limits on a discourse

Setting the stage for the International Course which is about to begin, calls for an explanation of the extent to which education and employment are related and h o w other factors overlap this relationship.

This implies however two self-imposed limits. The first is that w e do not start off with considerations on education as a "fundamental right" which in no way can be justified by economic considerations alone. Likewise, w e shall not begin this presentation with an explanation of the dimensions of education which relate to cultural attainment levels, to individual satisfactions and to the pursuit of societal well-being through the production, acquisition and development of knowledge for its o w n sake. W e shall therefore purposely begin this discourse on education by relating it essentially to one of its economic dimensions which is its impact on, and enhancement of, the productive labour force seen as a key instrument in promoting economic and social development.

The second limit w e shall set is that while w e do not suggest that economic and social development depend exclusively on the availability of a relevant productive work force, w e will not discuss those considerably important historical, cultural, ethical and social factors which condition the political definition of the scope and magnitude of any type of economic development. Socio-cultural trends, value systems, behaviour and attitude are more likely to explain the shape of economic development programmes and their successes or failures than sheer quantitative analysis of manpower requirements.

That, however, having been clearly spelt out at the start, it is just as essential to recall that there can be no national "development" if there is no self-sustaining economic growth. W e shall therefore attempt to understand the symptoms and some causes of economic growth. This calls for an insight on individual sector growth and on the relationship between changes and increases in production and in added value on the one hand, and the availability of a capable and competent work force which, in turn, is largely conditioned by the education and training received either before or during its economically active life, on the other.

W e shall then identify forces which affect what ideally would be a simple relationship between economic growth, patterns of distribution of occupations by sectors of economic activity and expected outputs of school and of training programmes whose presence in given numbers and qualifications will ensure future growth.

W e shall therefore indicate that manpower planning while it cannot ignore assumptions about the economy must take into consideration delicate choices emerging from national conditions and—more imperatively still— from international economic factors which m a k e nations more interdependent than ever before.

Thus, shall w e hang the backdrop on the scenery of this course.

23


1.2 E c o n o m i c growth objectives and education: three Asian cases

Before analyzing somewhat m o r e abstractedly the proposed issues, let us briefly look at economic development as a concrete reality in three Asian countries. O u t of these experiences, future references to concepts m a y b e c o m e m o r e tangible:

1.2.1 Japan

It was its First Economic Plan, designed in 1955 for a six-year period, which put Japan's exceptional economic performance on orbit. It seems interesting therefore to check on what the objectives were. That particular Plan, the first of its kind, identified four central policy goals which had to be me t in order to achieve economic self-reliance.1

(a) T h e first was that the most important economic policy objective should be a major expansion of exports through industrialization, enhancement of productivity and restriction of imports to conserve foreign exchange;

(b) the second goal was expansion of employment calling for a m a x i m u m possible growth of the Japanese economy. This was promoted through the encouragement of industrial sectors at all levels, especially m e d i u m and small-scale businesses in order to absorb the expansion in the labour force;

(c) the Plan set stable economic growth as the third goal. It held that economic growth rate targets should be established within the limit set by the balance of payments "ceiling";

(d) finally, the Plan sought to harmonize overall economic expansion and structural changes by re-orienting industry towards development of the domestic and international markets, centering on the heavy and chemical industries. The Plan thus called for structural changes to encourage the adoption of new technology, industrial rationalization, productivity growth as well as improvements in management methods, business finance and industrial relations.

This led to Japan achieving between 1966 and 1970 an average 10 per cent growth rate per a n n u m which was followed in spite of the oil crisis by an average of almost 5 per cent between 1971 and 1981 and preserving almost a 4 per cent average between 1982 and 1985.2

1.2.2 Korea

T h e first step towards growth was to transform tenural conditions through land redistribution. This was followed by technological and institutional innovations that raised productivity. T h e n a massive investment was m a d e in primary education to achieve universal education in rural areas, later to be followed by an expansion of secondary and university education.

Korea thus found itself with an abundance of highly educated h u m a n resources though it had no natural resources to speak of. A n acceleration of growth could therefore be based only on labour-intensive industrialization. At first, this was oriented towards

1 U . N . U . "Work in Progress", Vol.10, No.2, Tokyo, May 1987.

2 O E C D , "Main Economic Indicators", Paris, May 1987.

24

Lectures

import substitution; because of the earlier rural development, internal markets were gradually being established. By the late 60s however, import substitution possibilities were exhausted and economic objectives shifted towards export-oriented, labour-intensive development. That effort which also depended on large foreign capital in-flows was successful in terms of growth as well as of distribution.3

1.2.3 China

This third case points to a framework for action in matters of employment and education. China's development strategy was shaped by two major constraints: an extreme shortage of arable land in relation to population and isolation from the main streams of world technological development. The Chinese response to these constraints has been two-fold. First, following an initial phase of property redistribution, poverty reduction was based, on the one hand, on local resources and initiatives and, on the other, on economy and technical improvisations. Poverty reduction was further achieved through rural development and the provision of basic social services and food security by means of large-scale transfers. Second, c o m m u n e s established some industries in rural areas but industrialization was based primarily on centrally mobilized resources using mainly technologies developed in the 1950s. Though the initial distribution of assets and by controlling to some extent the distribution of the gains from productivity, China achieved a per capita growth rate which is above the average of other low income countries.4

Thus, w e note that Japan's new technology, industrial rationalization and productivity growth depended on the introduction of professional skills in areas of science and technology to be sure, but also in management, finance and industrial relations. The high premium given to its o w n unique brand of highly competitive school achievements, the close involvement of each graduate in the socio-cultural web of the employing institution and a modern programme ensuring the constant updating and re-training of professionals show the linkages between economic growth and skill building.

Likewise Korea's successful shift to exports of quality controlled manufactured goods is to a very large extent due to its exceptional reserve of qualified school graduates.

Finally, China's gradual industrialization and technical progress was due to the importance given, to adapting emerging local k n o w - h o w to modern criteria. The establishment after the Cultural Revolution of workers colleges enabling young workers to rapidly and intensively acquire broad-based vocational techniques and industrial leadership is another striking example of the relationship between growth and skill development.

Those three illustrations taken from Asia are meant to suggest that both employment and education and training are intimately woven into a general fabric, some strands of which m a y turn out to be of a sociological and cultural nature. Essentially they are based on universally accepted objectives of self-sustained growth as a pre-condition for redistribution and general h u m a n welfare.

3 ILO, "World Labour Report", Vol. I, Chapter 1, Geneva 1984.

4 Ibid. ILO, Ch.l.

25


1.3 Growth, labour force and unemployment: national resources

What then are the assets a country needs to possess in order to attain growth, development and welfare? These naturally are found in the accumulation of goods and services which a country can produce and which it can reinvest for further production. Generally, this is obtained by responding to growing needs of the domestic market and by promoting exports, at competitive prices, of commodities, manufactured goods and capital goods.

A brief look therefore at the "Gross Domestic Product" (GDP) which reflects this production capability and at its distribution by sectors, on the one hand, and at the distribution of its labour force through the sectors, yields indications for a given year or suggests trends if such analyses are conducted over time (see Table 1.1).

Table 1.1: Structure of G D P : developing regions, 1960-80 (in percentage)

Agriculture Industry Services

1960 1980 1960 1980 1960 1980

All developing countries 31.0 17.3 29.9 38.5 39.1 44.2

Latin America and Caribbean

(low-income countries) 26.2 17.2 27.7 32.0 46.1


(middle-income countries) 16.2 10.0 36.7 39.0 47.1 51.0

China n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

India 51.0 37.0 19.4 25.0 29.5 38.0

Asia (other low-

income countries) 48.1 33.0 17.5 27.0 34.4 40.0

Asia (middle-income

countries) 34.8 18.0 21.0 36.0 44.2 46.0

Africa and Middle East

(low-income countries) 54.4 41.0 13.3 17.0 32.4 42.0




(capital surplus oil producers) 25.8 8.0 51.1 63.0 23.2 29.0

Note: n.a. = not available

Source: ILO, World Labour Report, 1984, C h . 1.

26

Lectures

The structure of G D P in developing countries revelas that between 1960 and 1980, there were considerable shifts as to the relative role of each of the three main sectors (agriculture, industry and services (see Table 1.1). Thus, while in 1960, agriculture represented 31 per cent of G D P for all developing countries, it only represented 17.3 per cent twenty years later. Likewise, industry which barely reached 30 per cent in 1960 grew to 38.5 per cent of G D P by 1980 and finally, services which were of the order of 39 per cent in 1960 reached 44 per cent in 1980. Looking at the case of Asia and separating within Asia, the case of India, that of the low income countries and the situation of middle income countries, we find the following shifts in the 20-year period: the share of agriculture dropped by almost 30.per cent in India and in other low income countries, while for middle income countries, the shift was of the order of 50 per cent.

As this drop in the agriculture content of G D P took place, a parallel rise in the relative magnitude of industry also took place. Thus, in India, it grew by almost 30 per cent, by more than 50 per cent for other low income countries, and by over 70 per cent for middle income countries of Asia.

In the meantime, services also grew. In India by 29 per cent in the other low income countries by 16 per cent, and in the middle income countries by 4 per cent only.

If we compare now the distribution of the labour force within the three sectors for Asia, we shall see that whilst there were shifts comparable to the ones we have just noticed within the G D P , they are of considerably less magnitude (see Table 1.2). Thus India, whose labour force was essentially concentrated in agriculture in 1960, saw its share fall by 16 per cent by 1980, while in the other low income countries, it fell by 14 per cent and in the middle income countries, by 23 per cent.

These figures should now be compared to the gradual growth of the labour force in industry. Taking again the case of India, we note that the labour force in industry grew by 52 per cent, whilst, at the same time, in the other low income countries, the industrial labour force share increased by 46 per cent. What is most remarkable is the case of the middle income countries where it increased by 60 per cent.

Finally, a quick look at the sector of services indicate a parallel growth in the distribution of the labour force showing that as the agriculture labour force went down, part of the migration towards the cities was absorbed by the services.

What is noteworthy (see Table 1.3), however, for the three sectors, is that the relationship between the G D P distribution and the labour force (LF) distribution indicates that the improvements in productivity (the quotient of G D P / L F ) of industry, because of more rapid transformations and introduction of technology, were obviously greater than in agriculture.

The above considerations might have been considered both sufficient and necessary to determine proper "fit" between education and employment. For a given development policy, there could follow a corresponding economic growth rate and the ensuing employment structure. From the latter, including the occupational distribution pattern, would emerge an indication of manpower and/or skills required at different periods for each sector and within the latter, for each branch. Thus, one could project the expected output of education and training programmes for differing years.

Yet an appreciation of the labour force is not a determining indication of the employment situation. Indeed, despite high rates of growth in industrial production and

27


Table 1.2: Labour force structure: developing regions, 1960-80 (in percentage)

Agriculture Industry Services

All developing countries 72.6 59.1 12.8 19.9 14.5 21.0




(middle-income countries)

China

India

Asia (other low-income countries)

Asia (middle-income countries)






(capital surplus oil producers) 68..8 51.8 11.2 18.3 20.0 29.9

Source: ILO, World Labour Report, 1984, C h . 1

45.6

74.8

74.0

76.4

68.0

31.8

60.0

62.2

65.5

52.5

20.7

15.4

11.3

8.1

12.2

25.8

25.8

17.2

11.8

19.4

33.6

9.8

14.7

15.5

19.8

42.4

14.2

20.6

22.7

28.1

continued general economic growth, too much of the labour force remained in low productivity and low income employment. The benefits of growth were not being widely spread to the lower income groups.

The extent of the problem can be partially shown by limited indicators of open unemployment (see Table 1.4). Thus, for all developing countries, open unemployment in 1980 represented some 6 per cent of the total labour force. The corresponding figure for India was 4.6 per cent, for the low income countries of Asia, it was 4.5 per cent; and for the middle income countries of Asia, 3.4 per cent.

Some unemployment rates, particularly in countries with a great deal of wage employment, had reached high levels as early as in the 60s, as in Sri Lanka. Where rates were high in the 60s, they generally remained so. In a particular country, unemployment rate varies between urban and rural areas, between the young and the old and among the graduates of different types and levels of education.

28

Lectures

Table 1.3: Sectoral rates of growth 1960-1980; G D P and Labour Force (in percentage)

India L1C (Asia) MIC (Asia)

G D P LF G D P LF G D P LF

Agriculture

Industry

Services

Source: Based on ILO World Labour Report, 1984, Ch. 1

Note: G D P = Gross Domestic Product; L1C = Low Income Countries LF = Labour Force; MIC = Middle

Income Countries

-30%

+ 30%

+ 29%

-16%

+ 52%

+ 40%

-31%

+ 50%

+ 16%

-14%

+ 46%

+ 46%

-50%

+ 70%

+ 4%

-23%

+ 60%

+ 42%

As we can note from the above open unemployment situation, which says little of under-employment, especially in agriculture, but also amongst the educated, forecasts of human organization are not easily predictable. Since our purpose is to understand the nature of the linkages between training and education, on the one hand, and employment on the other, let us ask ourselves how fluctuations in job offers are affected by the overall context in which development takes place. To do so, we propose to look at two key dynamic factors which affect any national development situation and which, in turn, have an impact on employment prospects as well as on the role that education and training may be expected to play. The first relates to one of the causes of industrial productivity: technological development, and its impact on economic growth and, in particular, on industry. The second, touches on the implace of the world economic conditions on individual nations' growth, employment and training. These two factors will be discussed in the following two sections.

1.4 Industrial and technological development

Industrial growth does not just happen. Emerging national economies may purchase ready-made industrial potential and import full-fledged plants equipped to the last detail and ready to operate at the turn of a key to start off the first motor which will ignite the production growth. These are known as "turn-key operations". Or national economies may purchase industrial licenses or "know-how" together—or without— the foreign personnel. But, most determinant is the ability of an economy to launch its own industrial processes through the discovery of new techniques.

In other words, modern nations as their economies progress tend to own or at least control the means of transforming matter into the awaited finished product. These innovations in new techniques and improvements of old ones are part of the overall technological development of a country. Technological change may be formally defined as "the application of theoretical and practical knowledge to production through a sequential succession of techniques". Such an application will alter the make-up of the labour force

29


Table 1.4: O p e n unemployment(a): developing regions, percentage of labour force

Unemployment percentage

1960 1970 1980

All developing countries(b) 6.0 5.2 7.8


(low-income countries) 8.1 7.4 10.3


(middle-income countries) 5.6 7.8 8.4

China n.a n.a n.a

India 4.6 3.3 7.3

Asia (other low-income countries) 4.5 2.3 10.2

Asia (middle-income countries) 3.4 3.4 3.4


(low-income countries) 14.8 15.9 12.6


(middle-income countries) 7.7 4.7 8.7


(capital surplus oil producers) 5.4 6.1 4.0

Note: (a) Those w h o are not at work but have offically declared their intention to be employed.

(b) Excluding China.

n.a = not available

Source: I L O , World Labour Report 1984.

since technological change is basically a labour-saving process leading to output rise or, in other words, to productivity increase.

But such technological changes initiated nationally can only exist if prior research and testing have taken place. Research, which can start modestly in the form of a laboratory experiment or an equation written on a blackboard, can eventually lead to a vast and varied number of applications. This has been the case with fundamental research carried out on the structure of atomic nuclei, which led to the discovery of nuclear energy. Research on solid state physics has radically transformed or created an immense range of products and systems such as digital watches, television receivers, video-recorders, health

30

Lectures

care equipment and m a n y other familiar products. Space research programmes have yielded m a n y valuable benefits in fields such as telecommunications, remote sensing, new materials, and transport systems. The theoretical understanding of the part played by nuclei acids in the transfer of genetic information arose from the discovery of D N A but also promises a vast range of applications in the field of biotechnology, from health to food.

Incorporation of microprocessors into existing technologies can produce a generation of new products of improved performance. Advances in information technology combined with progress in computers, video-recorders, and telecommunications can transform education, increase the efficiency of organizations, and permit better use of h u m a n and material resources.

Robotics can free workers from hazardous and repetitive labour and can improve the productivity of industry. The same technology can be applied to the problems of the physically handicapped to produce artificial limbs and other devices that m a y help them.

Remote sensing can improve our capacity to protect our environment and to live in harmony with it, develop our natural resources, and predict our weather. Improvements in materials can create new technologies and enhance existing ones. The evolution of catalysis from an art to a science and improvements in membrane technology offer the possibility of new and more efficient chemical processes. Biotechnology has vast potential for the production of pharmaceutical products such as insulin, the synthesis of industrial chemicals, the development of new agricultural species and the more efficient recovery of mineral resources.

In the field of energy, fast breeder reactor technology will soon offer a major increase in the efficiency of electricity generation from uranium. In the longer term, thermonuclear fusion, one of the most challenging technologies ever conceived, m a y offer a virtually inexhaustible source of energy from ordinary sea water.

Technologies being applied today are founded upon the scientific research and development of yesterday. Hence, the well-being of society in the next century will rest on the application of scientific research which is being carried out n o w . The importance of fundamental scientific research in the birth of new industries cannot be over-emphasized. Vital to the aspect of development is the role of government support of science to inspire the future economic and social development of all countries.

The purchase of technology from abroad by developing countries has often put them in great difficulty as, in exchange, they could offer nationally grown or extracted basic commodities, the relative price of which has decreased when compared to the rising cost of imported technology.

F r o m the point of view of developing countries, this means that a situation of "dependency" is maintained as their economies have to import machines nd industrial inputs and consequently have to stimulate exports (especially of primary goods) to generate the necessary foreign exchange. M a n y developing countries still do not have a well organized sector of capital goods (machine-producing industries). Thus, they have not had the opportunity of making capital-saving innovations simply because they have not had the capital goods industry necessary for them. Under these circumstances, import of capital goods from abroad, has meant that they have not developed the technological base of skills, knowledge, facilities and organization upon which further technical progress so largely depends.

31


Repeated imports of knowledge and equipment do not provide an adequate response to local conditions in terms of demography or of available natural resources. It is therefore of prime necessity to base national sovereignty of developing countries on their ability to master locally the flow of needed knowledge and equipment. A n effort in this direction has indeed been taking place as the number of science graduates and engineers from m a n y developing countries has increased several-fold in the last 20 years: Investments in developing countries R & D , although still limited when compared to developed countries are beginning to grow.

It seems therefore capital to clarify the impact of the unquestionable and felt need for technological development, and of the measures taken to respond to it, on the employment situation.

Characteristically, technological change proceeds more rapidly than social change. The institutions and attitudes which were once favourable to earlier forms of technical and social development m a y become an impediment to the spread of new technologies. Thus, while "optimists" see automation, information technology and robots as freeing workers from the drudgery of work, creating leisure, earlier retirement and a return to traditional values, "pessimists" see n e w machines and organizations as accelerating de-skilling, reducing work creativity, creating mass unemployment and further, standardizing consumption.5

The optimists stress the positive aspects of technological advances. F r o m their point of view, even if there is an initial decline of employment opportunities because of the introduction of new technologies, in the long run jobs are created in newly emerging industries because of the expansion in total demand . In this way, technology is expected to create more jobs than it displaces.

The pessimists, on the other hand, emphasize the labour-saving effects of a new technology. They argue that these effects tend to be most pronounced in stagnant economies. A low rate of economic growth will m a k e it difficult to increase demands for products and consequently the creation of new job opportunities through derived demand will become exceedingly difficult. Thus, "technological unemployment" will add to the number of jobs already lost as a result of recession and in the long run, the introduction of new technologies will tend to result in reduced employment opportunities.

A realistic assessment (between the optimists 'and pessimists' views) of the impact of technology must take account of the different nature of the jobs that are eliminated and those that are created. While the jobs lost are merely semi-skilled or unskilled tasks, these created require considerable technical knowledge. This trend will translate in the longer term into a fast pace of growth of professional and technical employment opportunities which, in turn, will alter radically the pattern of demand for occupational qualifications. Inevitably, by increasing the need for educated technicians, professionals and highly specialized skilled operators and decreasing the demand for workers in the lower skilled ranges and blue-collar occupations, the diffusion of new technologies poses a real danger for the disadvantaged individuals and groups in society.

In general, it m a y be said that if the most important skill, in an automated process becomes personal reliability, then the general level of education will acquire a particular significance, not just to allow the worker to understand the working of the limited opera-

Material for this section was culled from the United Nations "1985 Report on the World Social Situation"

C h . VII, U . N . , N . Y . 1985.

32

Lectures

tion for which he is responsible, but also to enable him to absorb the successive training and re-training which technical change is sure to entail at the level of the factory, of the occupation and of the industry.

The overall picture which emerges and should concern students of the relations between employment and education is that the unquestionably imperative technological requirements for economic growth call for skills which in numbers have no relationship to massive individual aspirations. Technological development must be nurtured by specialists having received high-or specialized-level raining and education for a relatively limited number of them so they m a y occupy intermediate and high rungs of the occupational ladder. This state of affairs is obviously not compatible with the social and ethical aspirations of a policy offering "education for all" which cannot be met on the strength of economically-founded technological development objectives.

1.5 International economic conditions

W e have seen that technology is an indispensable asset for growth with its consequent challenges to the occupational distribution pattern and to individual perceptions of education and training as instruments of employment achievement. W e need n o w to understand better another set of obstacles most developing countries will have to overcome to attain self-sustaining growth in a dramatically worsening international economic climate.

World economic growth is undergoing a marked slow d o w n . International competition has brought about a disparity of development between industrialized countries and a polarization in the development of the less industrialized and developing countries. It m a y be said that the present slow down is built on the cyclical recession of Western countries. A s an example, w e shall simply recall that the United States' national debt which has doubled in the last six years, amounts today to some T w o thousand billion dollars, whilst, at the same time, its trade deficit is reaching some 150 billion per annum. 6 S o m e say this situation finds its root in the collapse of the Bretton W o o d s Agreement (the end of the gold and the dollar parity), which coincided with the oil crisis and subsequently in the unique impact of U S domestic fiscal policy. Whatever m a y be the cause of the present situation, it is unquestionable that it is affecting "broadside" most developing countries which face today a bleak outlook for their export earnings and drastic drops in their commodity prices. This gradually came to be through protectionist policies developed by industrialized countries, themselves confronted with internal structural dislocations and rising unemployment. Thus, industrialized nations from the "West" increased agricultural subsidies to their own farmers. This, in turn, has led to severe export limitations from developing countries, reducing in some cases to a trickle the earnings which they so desperately need.

As a result of past investments, developing countries are presently in a situation of impressive external debts amounting to a total of one thousand billion dollars. This, to a large extent, m a y be explained in terms of the great volatility of exchange rates, on the one hand, and of high interest rates which have brought up the cost of capital, on the other. A s a result, developing countries have not been able to reach high rates of domestic savings. W e are also witnessing a growing excess capacity in their production process, whether it be commodities, light manufacturing or in the steel, chemical and mineral industries.

In "Foreign Affairs", Vol. 65, N o . 3 , see Leonard Silk "The United States and the World E c o n o m y " .

33


In human terms, this has led to persistent poverty, especially in the rural and poor urban sections of the country, a gradual erosion of living standards of the lower and upper middle class and to a marked rise in unemployment. Let us look specifically at the latter as it affects our global outlook for this course. Unemployment statistics for developing countries are in most cases unsatisfactory and difficult to interpret. By and large, however, it is recognized that between 1973 and 1980, a large number of countries have experienced a significant increase in such unemployment (see Table 1.5).

As the above Table shows, unemployment recorded from the labour force sample surveys increased spectacularly in some countries (3.5-fold in Egypt). Unemployment recorded in employment offices (predominantly urban) in India showed an increase of 140 per cent. For Indonesia and Thailand, open unemployment increased by 312 per cent and 165 per cent, respectively over these years. There are however a number of countries where open unemployment remains constant or actually declines. They include countries of exceptionally rapid rates of economic growth. Thus total unemployment in the Republic of Korea and Singapore remained practically constant and low over the 70s, whilst in Malaysia, total unemployment actually declined in the 70s, although it increased in the 80s. In Pakistan, total unemployment recorded by employment offices also declined, probably due to a combination of high economic growth and a large outflow of labour to the Middle East.7

It is accepted that a transition from the traditional rural society to the more urban does not mean a direct transformation to modern large scale production of goods and services using modern technologies. What has been called an "urban informal'1 sector, occupying a position between the traditional rural and the modern and in close connection with, or overlapping both, has almost always been an integral part of the urban society. In many developing countries, this sector accounts for a large proportion of the urban population and urban economic activity. In some cities of Asia (Bombay, Djakarta), informal sectors account for in between 50 and 70 per cent of total employment 8 Parallel to the "urban informal sector" there is also a "rural informal sector" with similar characteristics. Job-seekers unable to find jobs in the moder sector, either because of lack of skill and previous training and education or inadequate overall demand for labour, are often forced into the informal sector, which thus absorbs at least partly those who would have otherwise been openly unemployed. It is also often viewed as a sector to which many of the emigrants from the rural areas are primarily attracted at the beginning of their job search.

In conclusion, we note the deleterious effect of economic recession on the lives of millions. This is particularly striking in South Asia where, even if there were a 5.6 per cent average growth rate per annum until the year 2000, the range of per capita income would not exceed $200 to $400 at the end of the century.9

Under such circumstances where growth is inhibited and employment curtailed, what connection can be made with education and training as an economic necessity? Obviously, the answer lies not in a simplistic relationship between levels of education or achievements in training skills and production or export targets but rather in the complex

7 Ibid, U . N : Chapter VII.

8 ibid

9 G . Gunatillake, Director, Marga Institute, Sri Lanka in A P D C Newsletter, Vol.6, No .2 , Feb. 1987, Kuala

Lumpur .

34

Lectures

Table 1.5: Growth on the number unemployed in developing countries (thousands)

1973 1975 1978 1980 1982

Egypt (LFSS)

Madagascar (EOS)

Mauritius (EOS)

Tunisia (EOS)

Argentina (LFSS)1

Brazil (LFSS)

Colombia (LFSS)3

Costa Rica (LFSS)

Chile (LFSS)

Jamaica (LFSS)

Peru (LFSS)

Burma (EOS)

India (EOS)

Indonesia (EOS)

Korea (LFSS)

Malaysia (EOS)

Pakistan (EOS)

Philippines (LFSS)

Singapore (LFSS)

Syrian Arab Rep. (LFSS)

Thailand (LFSS)

Source: International Labour Office, Yearbook of Labour Statistics, 1983.

Note: Source of national statistics indicated in parenthesis: LFSS, labour force sample survey; E O S , employ

ment office statistics 1 Buenos Aires; 2 1981; 3 seven main cities; 4 1976; 5 1979.

145

18

27

37

173

968

-

-

48

176

192

194

7 714

89

461

155

168

690

38

77

72

233

13

21

29

97

-

253

414

158

175

237

197

8 918

115

510

125

20

581

39

89

67

355

36

16

59

102

1 003

261

33

169

230

342

415

11 837

157

442

107

146

694

35

90

173

536

41

31

66

82

2 0232

349

46

152

270

394

486

15 317

233

749

73

144

878

34

825

204

-

26

74

78

220

-

-

78

272

-

417

656

18 646

367

656

69

144

975

30

-

.

35


w e b of societal change, which depends on education as an inevitable catalyst, and which is likely to bring about n e w forms of domestic and international dialogues.

1.6 Polarization of development and its challenges

F r o m the two preceding sections, w e m a y note that, on the one hand, to ensure self-sustained growth through the development of high levels of technology, there prevail sophisticated demands for skills while, on the other, as urban and rural unemployment grow together with the informal sector, there are apparently weaker economic justifications for massive educational and training pre-requisites.

Put bluntly, there is beginning to emerge with greater focus the existence of a situation characterized by the presence of two "poles" in the development of m a n y of the "poorer" countries.

O n the one hand, there is a vital need for the development of a technological capability and the skill development processes it entails whilst at the other end, there prevails a level of extreme poverty which is not likely to be profoundly affected in the short term by growth trends and, consequently, by an influx of school graduates. In other words:

(a) where technology is a must for survival, education and training policies b e c o m e key areas of action in order to prepare people and society for the n e w technological culture, to provide a m o r e flexible labour force and to prepare young people and shift workers to newly emerging occupations and skills;

(b) at the same time, for the category of the unemployed and underemployed, the immediate demands are for lower mortality rate, eradication of the worst forms of poverty, raising of the level of literacy, and a framework for food security, nutrition and well-being.

For governments, the challenge of technology mainly requires changes in basic curricula in order to give students at all levels an understanding of the newly emerging technological culture, provision of a broad-based work-related education for young people, in order to overhaul apprenticeship and trining arrangements in the light of emerging technologies and support for these measures by promoting geographic and occupational mobility. In addition to such measures, vocational training, pre-professional and professional education at the secondary and higher levels as well as in-service training must be founded on the principle of chartering the shortest route between the learning sites and the production place. N o government, whether from industrialized or developing states, can afford to subsidize or finance the entire range of institutions which are specialized at these levels. M a n y government-financed vocational schools and professional universities, removed from the production scene, are equipped today with antiquated material, laboratories and workshops which in no way prepare their graduates for entrance into a labour market which is therefore neither interested nor willing to absorb them. This imposes a necessary linkage between production and education and training justified by the need to ensure relevance of the latter. This is further buttressed by quite autonomous consideration based on the dwindling of government financial resources for education. Governments will increasingly need to seek involvement, both professional and financial, of production sectors, whether public or private, in the trining of the nations's future scientific, technological and industrial cadres.10

For a more detailed treatment of financing strategies for the diversified forms of education, see IIEP

36

Lectures

Such a strategy, in addition to its intrinsic merit in offering a response to demands of scientific, technological and industrial development corresponds to the unquestionable responsibility of the State to attend to the social, cultural, ethical and the long-term economic demands of society in favour of illiterates, school dropouts, unemployed and underemployed school, college and university graduates.

Governments, central or local, will gradually concentrate their limited resources on attending to the educational needs of the majority of populations whose short-term direct involvement in technological development is most unlikely. There is therefore a case to be m a d e , together with an attempt at establishing a "fitness" between technological development and the concomitant skills requirement, for a broad-based education and training, including an understanding of the new technological dimensions in order to m a k e it possible for all, notwithstanding their likelihood to find employment in the short term, to reach the m i n i m u m "cultural" waterline from which future social mobility m a y become credible.

In conclusion, governments faced with the duality inherent in growth objectives (compatible with self-sustainment and international competition) and in the unfettered advancement of their economically inactive population, must learn both to share the resource load for skills training at all levels with other productive "actors" and to "go it alone" in search for equity as it offers basic education "to all" notwithstanding linear and short term economic justifications.

It is precisely strategies responding to such paradoxical and simultaneous forces that w e shall wish to examine during this course, concerned essentially with the "fitness" issue between employment and education. It was therefore with an intent that this opening lecture singled out the extremes of the present situation. It is the purpose of our programme to review with deliberate attention the intermediate stages and variety of choices open to decision-makers in the light of the unique conditions they face and at such time as they become manifest.

1.7 Conclusion in the w a y of an introduction

Given the above, it behooves m e to introduce you to the approach w e followed in designing this regional training course. It was felt that from the beginning of this workshop each one of the participants should be given an opportunity of individualizing the situation which I have presented in very global terms and which, by definition, cannot apply specifically to any of the countries from which have c o m e participants to this course. It was felt therefore that national cases should be presented by each participant and discussed by at least one other if not by more.

In diagnosing the education and employment situation of the countries of each participant, w e shall try and clarify some basic concepts which I m a y have used rather rapidly in m y overall presentation ( G D P , labour force, sectors, employment, productivity, etc.).

Subsequently, w e shall then confront the first technical "module" of the course which is to deal with the manpower approach to educational planning. In other words, w e shall have to appreciate the extent to which it is possible to forecast or at least anticipate emerging strategies for education on the strength of assumptions about manpower require-

Publication Series: " H E P Contributions", N o . l , 1987; Sylvain Lourié " N e w strategies for financing diversi

fied forms of education and training".

37


ments in the various sectors of the economy and for some years to come. This is where exercises will take place on the projection of such manpower demand.

Discussions will then ensue around these exercises as well as on estimates of manpower supply. With the latter, w e shall attempt to assess the extent to which educational and training systems, within formal institutions or within industry, are capable of responding to the demand from the labour or employment market at levels and in numbers corresponding to what the economy can effectively absorb. Given the limitations of this approach, w e shall want to discuss it critically.

W e shall then go on to examine other approaches relating education with employment, basing ourselves on different theories of the labour market, on statistical techniques which can be used to understand better the actual "signals" from the labour market and their receptivity by educational and training authorities.

W e shall m o v e on to a discussion of an economic dimension of educational planning based on the application of "earning functions" which enable us on the one hand, to compare the costs of education both to society and to individuals with the benefits derived by both through additional earnings gained throughout one's active life, and on the other, to analyze the role of different factors and variables on income distribution, career promotion, etc.

W e will then examine empirical studies which follow school and university leavers of various institutions into the labour market. This technique of checking on the career of former graduates is known as "Tracer" studies which will be presented, analyzed and discussed.

The next module will be devoted to understanding empirically and very concretely h o w forces operate in the employment and labour market. In order to achieve this, w e shall produce questionnaires meant to gather information reflecting the nature and magnitude of the relationship between education and employment.

As an overall conclusion to our training course, w e shall attempt to look at various strategies for a better match between education and employment and to identify these intermediary stages between the two poles I described earlier. W e shall thus look at specific solutions that have been tried out in various countries and draw some lessons for all of us.

I should like to conclude by trying to m a k e you aware of the need to live in a state of uncertainty as you learn to rely less on linear, causal, simplistic extrapolations. . N o matter h o w well figures are collected and understood, no matter h o w well certain phenomena are identified and described—and all these are essential pre-requisites—there still remains the potent force of political, cultural and social externalities which are those that generally shape an economic situation as 1 tried to show at the outset with m y illustrations of Japan, Korea and China. Together w e have just seen h o w some such externalities like technological development objectives and the consequences of international structural adjustments (some call it the International Division of Labour) affect national purposes.

Planning today cannot consist in deciding a priori not only "where" to go but " h o w " to get there. Means and resources in today's economic crisis are evanescent and unreliable. Their future availability cannot be predicted reasonably. Planning today means therefore choosing between situations over which one has relatively little control. The sole important consideration is the objective to be reached. H o w and when this will take

38

Lectures

place will depend on the ability to m a k e "good" choices based on partially unpredictable circumstances. That is the meaning w e give today to "strategic planning" as w e learn to navigate between difficulties and to apply gentle pressures, within the very limited margin of movement actually given to decision-makers, to pursue our route in the general direction given by the agreed objectives.

Before closing, I should like to quote from part of a statement m a d e by one of the members of IlEP's Governing Board, D r . M . A . J . Shahari, Director of the Asian Pacific Development Centre, as he delivered the opening address to the November 1986 Beijing Conference on "Asian Pacific E c o n o m y towards the year 2000". D r . Shahari said "the key to greater regional co-operation is sharing of information, effective communication and a collective understanding of the vision of the region". It is m y hope that this international training opportunity given to responsible government officials from ten countries of the region will enable them to understand what "strategic planning" means, when it comes to defining the delicate relationship between education and employment in each of their societies. If this workshop reaches that objective, w e will have m a d e a contribution, albeit very modest, to Dr . Shahari's appeal for a "a collective understanding of the vision" of this region.

39

Lecture 2

Education and employment: some basic concepts i

N . V . Varghese

2.1 Introduction

The attempt in this note is to introduce the participants to some of the basic and elementary concepts useful in diagnosing education and employment situation in a country. The concepts discussed in this note are classified under different headings. Section 2 introduces the concepts of G N P and G D P . Section 3 introduces the concept of labour force and work force. Section 4 deals with the concepts of employment and work. It also deals with industrial and occupational classification of employment. Section 5 elaborates on the concept of unemployment. Section 6 deals with labour market. Section 7 introduces the concept of wage. Section 8 deals with labour mobility and the final section is on education.

2.2 GNP and GDP

Gross National Product (GNP) measures the total domestic and foreign output claimed by residents and is calculated without making deductions for depreciation. It comprises of gross domestic product adjusted by net factor income from abroad, i.e., is the income residents receive from abroad for factor services (labour and capital) less similar payments made to non-residents who contributed to the domestic economy (World Bank: 1987).

G N P per capita is arrived at by dividing gross national product by population of the country. For purposes of international comparisons the World Bank converts G N P to U S dollars. This procedure of conversion generally uses three year average of the official exchange rate.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total final output of goods and services produced by an economy—that is, by residents and non-residents—regardless of the allocation to domestic and foreign claims. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation (World Bank: 1987).

G D P by industrial origin is measured at producer prices or at purchaser values. G D P at producer prices is equal to G D P at purchaser values less import duties. G D P at producer prices is referred to as G D P at factor cost and G D P at purchaser values is referred to as G D P at market prices.

The economy is broadly divided into three sectors—agriculture, industry and services. These three sectors are some times referred to as Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Sectors. Agricultural Sector comprises of agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing, Industry comprises of mining, manufacturing, construction and electricity gas and water. All other branches of economic activity are categorized as Services. G D P share from each of these three sectors is taken as an index of level of development of the economy. With advances in economic development the share of agriculture in G D P comes down

I a m grateful to Bikas C . Sanyal for his comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this paper.

40

Lectures and Practical Exercises

and correspondingly the shares of other sectors increase.

2.3 L a b o u r force

T h e total population of a country can be divided into those w h o are economically active and those w h o are not. Economically active means all persons w h o furnish the potential supply of labour for production of economic goods and services. Labour force comprises of all economically active persons aged ten and above. It includes the n u m b e r of persons employed and unemployed but excludes economically inactive population (World B a n k : 1987).

International classification by status categorizes the economically active population under the following headings:

(a) Employer: a person w h o operates his or her o w n economic enterprise or engages independently in a profession or trade and hires one or m o r e employees.

(b) O w n account worker: a person w h o operates his or her o w n economic enterprise or engages independently in a profession or trade and hires no employees.

(c) Employee : a person w h o works for a public or private employer and receives remuneration in wages, salary, commission, tips, piece-rates or pay in kind.

(d) Unpaid family worker: a person w h o works a specified m i n i m u m amount of time (at least one-third of normal working hours) without pay, in economic enterprises operated by a related person living in the same household.

(e) M e m b e r of Producer's co-operative: a person w h o is an active m e m b e r of producers' co-operatives regardless of the industry in which it is established.

(f) Persons not classifiable by status: Experienced workers with status u n k n o w n or inadequately described and unemployed persons not previously employed .

Labour Force Participation Rate ( L F P R ) is the percentage of total labour force to the total population aged ten and above i.e. total n u m b e r of persons employed plus u n e m ployed divided by total population aged ten and above multiplied by a hundred.2

Labour force is to be distinguished from workers and w o r k force. W o r k e r s denote those w h o are participating in any economically productive activity. This participation can be physical or mental, direct or indirect involvement (supervision etc.) in w o r k . S u m total of the workers constitutes w o r k force. W o r k force participation rate is the percentage of workers to the relevant age group population (ten years and above).

It may be noted that working age population refers to population between the age-groups of 15 and 64

(World Bank: 1987).

In Indian census workers are some times divided into two—main workers and marginal workers (census:

1981). Main workers are those w h o have worked for major part of year preceding the enumeration.

Marginal workers are those w h o have worked any time at all in the year preceding enumeration but have

not worked for the major part of the year. Non-workers are those w h o have not worked anytime at all in

41


Sometimes a distinction is drawn between labour force, work force3 and supply of labour. A s mentioned earlier, labour force includes employed and unemployed persons; work force includes only employed, i.e. labour force minus unemployed gives work force. Supply of labour on the other hand includes hours worked and intensity of working effort (Uthoff and Pernia: 1986).

Historical behaviour of labour force participation rates exhibits certain discernable pattern (Uthoff and Pernia: 1986).

(a) L F P R of m e n and w o m e n below the age of 25 tend to decline over a period of time as a result of access to higher education;

(b) L F P R of m e n and w o m e n above sixty decline because of old age benefits and social security system;

(c) Male L F P R between 25 and 55 years of age show only marginal declining trend.

(d) Female L F P R vary between geographical areas depending upon cultural traditions and agricultural structure. W o m e n are mainly engaged in primary sector activities. Female L F P R is sensitive to total income of the family.

2.4 E m p l o y m e n t

E m p l o y m e n t and work are sometimes used interchangeably. However , a distinction need to be drawn between the two. Perhaps, wage is the criterion on which these two can be distinguished.

Productive activities which directly take place in the realm of market forces are treated as employment . Market denotes exchange and in this sense work which has a direct exchange value is employment . In other words, w h e n work is directly exchanged for a wage, it becomes employment . W o r k , on the other hand, does not necessarily m e a n earning a wage . For example, those w h o are engaged in household economic activities m a y not be receiving a wage as a direct payment for the work they perform; but they m a y be receiving or sharing the profit borne out of the output that they produce and market.

Sen (1975) notes that the concept of employment is vague in any economy in which wage system is weak and self-employment and unpaid family labour are c o m m o n because the criterion of 'being paid a wage ' cannot be reliably applied. Accordingly, this vagueness was a problem confined to less developed economies where market system is less developed.

E m p l o y m e n t has three aspects (Sen:1975):

(a) It gives an income to the employed;

(b) it yields an output;

the year preceding enumeration. Non-workers include (i) full time students w h o do no other work; (ii)

persons engaged in unpaid household duties; (Hi) dependants like children not attending schools and

permanently disabled; (iv) retired persons, rentiers etc. w h o do no other work; (v) beggars vagrants etc.;

(vi) prisoners and inmates of charitable institutions; (vii) persons seeking employment for the first time,

and (viii) persons employed before but are out of employment and are seeking jobs at present.

42


(c) it gives a person the recognition of being engaged in something worth while.

O f recent the concept of work and employment and distinctions between the two assumed a different dimension even in the well developed market economies primarily resulting from the changing technological conditions of production. During the industrial stage employment was organized in a central place, say in a factory, all people had uniform working hours and uniform frequency in the payment of wages. In the post industrial phase, 'contractual systems of employment ' emerged (Watts: 1983). N o w work need not necessarily be organized in a central place. A t present, with the revolution in the communication and information net work , work can be very easily organized in the households itself. Therefore, people undertake contractual work and locate themselves away from the bureaucratic set up and industrial concerns. They finish the job and receive the payment. A n d this payment is not the same as wages. This is different from conventional type of employment .

Self employment means working for oneself. This is different from wage employment . That is to say w h e n one works for others for a fixed wage it becomes wage-employment and w h e n one is working for oneself it becomes self-employment. Self employment is increasing rather fast in m a n y of the less developed economies. A n d m a n y a time it is suggested to re-orient educational systems to equip individuals to be self-employed.

Another term which is very often used in literature on employment is underemployment . Under-employment exists w h e n persons in employment w h o are not working full time would be able and willing to do m o r e work than they are actually performing at present (ILO: 1984). Under-employment is of two types—visible and invisible. Visible under-employment means working less than a certain n u m b e r of hours per year. This n u m b e r of hours be either the n u m b e r of hours desired or the n u m b e r of hours considered normal or appropriate. People are invisibly under-employed if m o r e of them are engaged in a certain activity than would be needed to produce the output which they produce. (Monly and Costa: 1981). Their earnings are abnormally low, and their jobs do not permit full use of their capacities or skills. Under-employment of the educated is a serious problem in m a n y of the developing economies.

2.4.1 Classification of the employed

E m p l o y m e n t is very often discussed in terms of industrial classification and occupational classification. Industrial classification denotes the distribution of the e m p l o y e d b y sectors of activity. According to the International Standard Industrial Classification of E c o n o m i c Activities, the major divisions of industries are:

(a) Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing

(b) Mining and quarrying

(c) Manufacturing

(d) Electricity, gas and water

(e) Construction

(f) Wholesa le and retail trade, restaurants and hotels

(g) Transport, storage and communication

43


(h) Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

(i) Communi ty , social and personal services

(j) Activities not adequately defined.

It is generally believed that the relative distribution of workers between sectors is an indicator of the level of economic development achieved by any economy. Process of economic development is associated with a gradual shift of the work force from primary to secondary and further to tertiary sector. Thus the least developed economy will have the highest proportion of its work force engaged in primary sector activities and the most developed economy will have the highest proportion of its work force engaged in the tertiary sector activities. It is to be noted here that, of late this shift is not stage wise— from primary to secondary to tertiary—in m a n y of the less developed countries tertiary sector is growing faster than secondary sector. This is primarily due to the growth of service sectors in the tertiary sector due to the increased welfare measures adopted by the public authorities. In India too more proportion of work force is employed in tertiary sector than in secondary sector.4

Occupational classification denotes distribution of employment between different occupational divisions. Till the seventies data on employment were collected as per international classification of occupations (ISCO) adopted by I L O in 1958. In 1968 I L O revised the occupational classification. A s per the revised classification there are 8 major occupational groups, 83 minor occupational groups, 284 unit groups and 1,506 occupational categories. Because of this change in the occupational classification data re not strictly comparable over a period of time.5

The International Standard Classification of Occupations gives the following major groups of occupations.

• 0/1. Professional, technical and related workers.

• 2. Administrative and managerial workers

• 3. Clerical and related workers

• 4. Sales workers

• 5. Service workers

• 6. Agriculture, aimal husbandry and forestry workers, fishermen and hunters.

• 7/8/9. Production and related workers, transport equipment operators and labourers.

• 10. Workers not classifiable by occupation and members of the armed forces.

4 See Varghese (1986) for details on the empirical picture in India.

5 However ILO provides conversion tables to make the figures comparable.

44


2.5 Unemployment

U n e m p l o y m e n t is the state of not working. U n e m p l o y m e n t can be voluntary and involuntary. Those w h o are not working and not seeking an employment are treated as voluntarily unemployed. They do not c o m e under the category of economically active population. Involuntarily unemployed are those w h o are not at work but are seeking work or available for work at the on-going wage rate. This category is important from the economic point of view. In discussions, unemployment unless otherwise qualified, refers to those w h o are involuntarily unemployed. U n e m p l o y m e n t rate refers to the percentage of total unemployed population to the total labour force.

T h e general definition used by the I L O for unemployment includes all persons above a specified age w h o , on the specified day or for a specified week , c a m e into one of the following categories:

(a) Workers available for employment whose contract of employment had been terminated or temporarily suspended and w h o were without a job and seeking work for pay or profit;

(b) persons who were available for work (except for minor illness) during the specified period and were seeking work for pay or profit, who were never previously employed or whose most recent status was other than that of employee (i.e., former employers, etc.), or who had been in retirement;

(c) persons without a job and currently available for work w h o had m a d e arrangements to start a n e w job at a date subsequent to the specified period;

(d) Persons on temporary or indefinite lay-off without pay.

The following categories of persons are not considered by the ILO to be unemployed:

(a) Persons intending to establish their o w n business or farm, but w h o had not yet arranged to do so, w h o were not seeking work or pay for profit;

(b) former unpaid family workers not at work and not seeking work for pay or profit.

Unemployment is, very often, categorized into various types. Frictional unemployment denotes unemployment caused by industrial friction such as immobility of labour, ignorance of job opportunities; shortage of raw materials, break down of the machinery or plant etc. Seasonal unemployment refers to unemployment which is due to seasonal variations. Those employed in agricultural activities are subjected to seasonal unemployment if they do not plan for their employment in the off seasons in agriculture.

Structural unemployment refers to unemployment arising out of structural changes in the economy. Technological changes will result in structural changes in the production process. It may displace labour and result in structural unemployment.

Cyclical unemployment refers to unemployment resulting from the business cycles in the economy. During periods of depression many people are thrown out of employment and they are referred to as cyclically unemployed.

Perhaps the most important and most commonly discussed type of unemployment is disguised unemployment. Disguised unemployment means that a withdrawal of a part of

45


the labour force from the traditional field of production would leave the total output unchanged (Sen: 1975). "In technical terms this will mean marginal productivity of labour, over a wide range, is zero" (Nurkse: 1953). Disguised unemployment is very common in all agriculture based labour surplus economies. A distinction is to be made between incidence and duration of unemployment. Incidence of unemployment is the percentage of unemployed in a given population group. It is the unemployment rate.6

Duration of unemployment denotes mean years or months unemployed since graduation (Sanyal: 1985).

2.6 Labour market

Labour market is the institution which mediates between demand for and supply of labour. It used to be believed that the price of labour—wage—is determined in the labour market depending upon the relative supply of and demand for labour.

The classical economists assumed full employment and hence the primary function of labour market is considered to be to ascertain the price of labour services at a given point of time. Given the assumptions of homogeneity of labour units and flexibility of wages, equilibrium in the labour market was a general case and dis-equilibrium was only a temporary aberration. The neo-classicals, though did not subscribe to the classical assumption of homogeneity of labour units too considered that the primary function of labour market is to allocate and rationally adjust labour skills and labour demands so as to establish equilibriating wage rates.

From the educational point of view different economists have emphasized different aspects of education which is given premium in the labour market. Asper human capital version it is the cognitive skill (Shultz: 1981), to Arrow (1973) it is the filtering or screening role, to Spence (1973) it is the signalling role of education which the employers consider dear in their recruitment. To Thurow (1972) Fields (1974) and Bhagawati and Srinivasan (1977) it is the hiring practice which is very important. To the radicals labour market is segmented (Reich, et.al.: 1973).

As per the segmentation theory labour markets are divided into two: (i) primary and (ii) secondary labour markets. Primary labour market is characterized by employment stability, high wages, better working conditions and internal labour market. Secondary labour markets are characterized by low skill requirements, low wages, poor working conditions and high labour turn over and no promotion avenues.

Some versions of the segmentation theory further divides the primary segment into two—upper and lower tiers. Jobs in the upper tier require decision making abilities where as those in the lower tier involve routinized activities. However, educational qualifications become a requisite for entry into the primary sector where as they are not so essential in the secondary sector of the labour market.

There are two concepts used in measuring unemployment (i) persons rates; and (ii) time rate (Krishna:

1984). Time rate is the number of person days of unemployment as a proportion of person days of labour

supply per week. Person rate is the number of persons counted as unemployed on the basis of their status

during the reference period divided by the number of persons in the labour force in the same period. It

can be seen that time rate is a flow rate and person rate the stock rate of unemployment.

46


A mention about internal and external labour market is in order. Internal labour markets refers to the Labour Market internal to an organization primarily for promotion into higher posts. External labour market is the usual recruitment place for any job. In internal labour market only employees of the same organization are candidates where as the external labour market is primarily for the unemployed though employed also may be part of it to improve their jobs prospects.

2.7 Wages

Wage, in the wider sense, is the reward for the factor of production namely labour and hence includes any payment for work whether it is work done for an employer or that of a self-employed person. In a narrow and more commonly used sense wages refer to payment to employed persons. Wage rate is the stated amount at which a person is hired.

Some times a distinction is drawn between wages and salaries. Wages are associated with lower level manual workers paid on hourly, daily or weekly basis where as salaries refer to monthly or annual payments preferably for white collar employees.

Two important bases for wage payment or wage determination are: (i) payment by time; (ii) payment by results. (Robertson: 1961). Payment by time means deciding and paying a fixed amount of money to an individual with given and known characteristics for a certain specified period of time. Salary is the most common payment based on time. Salary is a pure time payment and the time period involved is normally monthly or yearly. Non-manual workers are usually salaried.

Payment by results is related to the actual work done. The work done can be measured in terms of (a) piece-work; and (b) time allowances. In the case of piece work the worker is remunerated according to the number of units of output he has produced i.e., the unit of output is priced as the criterion for payment. In time allowances the output is fixed than priced. Each work requires certain period of time for its completion or performance. There is a normal or standard time required for each work. The payment is based on this time allowed. The individual may take more or less time than this to finish the work. But he will be paid based on the standard time to be taken rather than the actual time taken.

A distinction is to be drawn between income, wages and earnings. Income is the flow of returns from the property, estate or wealth. Wages are the reward or payment for the work or employment. Earnings refers to total of all types of receipts from any profession. Earning will be more than wages. Wage is the minimum that one gets from a profession or job where as earnings are the maximum that one can receive from the profession or job and income is independent of profession.

The general trend is that there is a positive association between education and earnings. Therefore, education is considered to be an influential variable in explaining earning differentials between individuals. H u m a n capital model is the most commonly used model for explaining earning differentials among individuals.

47


2.8 Labour mobility

Labour mobility refers to the movement of labour force. Mobility can be spatial which denotes movement of labour from region to the other region or from one country to the other. This is sometimes refered to as labour migration. Migration within the confines of a country is called internal migration and between nations is called international migration.

Mobility can be from one employment status to another. This is more c o m m o n where internal labour markets exist and promotion possibilities are wide-spread. This is referred to as vertical mobility.

Mobility can also be from one occupation to another occupation. The occupation m a y be of similar status. This is refered to as lateral or horizontal mobility. Persons with narrow fields of specialization have less chances of lateral mobility though their chances of vertical mobility are better.

2.9 Education

Very often distinctions are drawn between education and training. Education implies general instruction and learning relevant to performance in an array of occupational roles where as training is specific instruction concerned with good performance of a particular task or a set of tasks making up a job or occupation (Staley: 1970). The level of training refers to the degree of socialization one has achieved in a particular occupational group whereas education refers to the professional knowledge or aptitude acquired and applied in a total system.

Educational level acquired by an individual is important factor in determining his job and earnings. Educational levels vary from literate in any language to doctorate in any subject. A person w h o can read and write with understanding in any one language is treated as literate.

The highest qualification acquired by an individual is recorded as his educational level. This is difficult to asses in certain cases especially if a person possesses more than one equivalent qualification. In Indian census when a person holds both general and technical qualification of equivalent level the technical qualification is recorded. W h e n general educational level is higher than the technical education level or when it is not possible to decide which of them is relatively the higher qualification, the level of education as entered by the person is taken into account and he is classified accordingly.

In the case of a person w h o is still studying in a particular class, the highest qualification attained by him will be the one which he has actually passed and not the one he is studying. So his highest acquired qualification is recorded.

2.10 References

Arrow, K.J. (1973) "Higher Education as Filter", Journal of Public Economic, Vol.2, pp. 192-216.

Bhagawati, J .N . and T . N . Srinivasan (1977) "Education in a Jobladder-Model and Fairness in Hiring Principle", Journal of Public Economics, Vol.7, pp. 1-22.

48


Census of India (1981) Provisional Population Totals: Workers and Non-Workers, Seres-1, India Paper 3.

Fields, G . S . (1974): "Private Demand for Education in Relation to Labour Market Conditions in Less Developed Countries", The Economic Journal, Vol.84, pp. 906.19.

ILO: International Labour Organization (1969) International standard classification of occupations, (Revised), Geneva, ILO. ILO: International Labour Organization (1984) Unemployment and Economic Growth, Geneva, ILO.

Krishna, Raj (1984) Growth of Aggregate Unemployment in India, World Bank Staff working papers N o . 638; Washington D . C .

Monly, J. and E . Costa (1981) Employment Policies in Developing Countries, Geneva, ILO/

Nurkse, R . (1953) Problems of Capital Formation in Under Developed Countries, Oxford, Blackwell.

Reich, M ; D . M . Gordon and R . C . Edwards (1973): " A Theory of Labour Market Segmentation", American Economic Review, Vol. 63, pp. 359-65.

Robertson, D.J. (1961) The Economics of Wages and Distribution of Income, London, Macmillan.

Sanyal, B . C . (1985) "Graduate unemployment and Education" in International Encyclopedia for Education, Oxford, Pergamon Press.

Schultz, T . W . (1961) "Investment in H u m a n Capital" American Economic Review, Vol.51, pp. 1-17.

Sen, A . K . (1975) Employment Technology and Development, Delhi, Oxford University Press.

Spence, M . (1973) "Job market signalling", Quarterly Journals of Economics, Vol.87, pp. 355-75.

Staley, E . C . (1970) Planning Occupational Education and Training for Development, N e w Delhi Orient Longman.

Thurow, L . (1972) "Education and Economic inequality" Public interest,, Summer.

Uthoff, A . and E . M . Pernia, (1986) An Introduction to Human Resources Planning in Developing Countries, Geneva, ILO, 1986.

Varghese, N . V . (1986) Education and Labour Market: A Survey of Indian Evidence, (A Study sponsored by H E P ) , NIEPA, N e w Delhi (Memeo).

Varghese, N . V . (1988) Education and Employment Relations: A Case Study of Organised Sector in India, Occasional paper, Paris, IIEP (Forthcoming)

Watts, A . G . (1983) Education, Unemployment and Future of Work, Milton Keynes, Open University Press.

49


World Bank (1987) World Development Report, Washington, D . C . World Bank.

50

Lecture 3

Estimation of manpower demand and supply

by Bikas C . Sanyal

3.1 Objective of the session

During the previous discussions, the need for information on future requirements for qualified m a n p o w e r has been emphasised to provide one of the bases for the planning of education. S o m e guidance is needed as to the direction that the development of education should take in quantitative terms to cater for future needs for skills. It is believed that forecasting of qualified m a n p o w e r can provide this guidance. Although methods of forecasting have a lot of limitations (this will be discussed later), an increasing n u m b e r of countries, especially from the developing world, are preparing m a n p o w e r forecasts according to occupational and educational requirements within the framework of their development plans. T h e present session has therefore, as its objectives:

(a) to apprise participants of the different methods of projection of qualified m a n p o w e r ; and

(b) to sensitize them about the shortcomings of these methods as regards their adaptation to specific contexts.

3.2 Different methods of projection of qualified m a n p o w e r needs

A variety of methods have been used to derive m a n p o w e r forecasts in different countries. T h e dominant model is k n o w n in the literature as the " m a n p o w e r requirements" method. T h e different steps of this particular model will be outlined and then discussed.

W e shall adopt the methodology used in the O E C D ' s Mediterranean Regional Project ( M R P ) . This is for two reasons: first, this project provides the most extended n u m b e r of "steps" in generating the m a n p o w e r forecasts and, second, the M R P model (or s o m e slight variant of it) is the one still used today by a great n u m b e r of countries.1

T h e three major steps in qualified m a n p o w e r forecasting are: (a) projecting the d e m a n d for educated m a n p o w e r , (b) projecting the supply of educated m a n p o w e r , and (c) balancing supply and d e m a n d . In what follows, w e mainly consider the first step and its main stages, since w e are dealing here with the m a n p o w e r forecasts. Let us introduce the following symbols:

Psacharopoulos G . and Debeauvais M . "Forecasting the needs for qualified manpower: towards an evalua

tion" in Forecasting Skilled Manpower needs: The experience of eleven countries Edited by R . V . Youdi and

K . Hinchliffe, Unesco, Paris 1985.

51


P = population L = Labour force X = output i = economic sector j = occupation к = educational level (or type) T = target year of the plan 0 = base year of the plan

3.3 The d e m a n d side

The M R P methodology uses five main steps in assessing the required number of workers by educational level in the target year of the plan. These are as follows:

3.3.1 Step 1: Estimating the future level of output (Xj) for the target year

W e know X Q = G D P per capita in the base year. W Let rj represent the desired average annual growth rate in G D P per capita and Г2 the estimated growth rate of population.

Then G D P per capita in the target year T will be

, T X 0 (1 + rj) po" and output in the target year will be X O (1 + rj)7 x P 0 (1 + r2) T = X 0 (1 + T1 + r0 + r1 r2) T = X T P0

3.3.2 Step 2: Estimating the structural transformation of the economy or the distribution of GDP by economic sector

25. x According to the International Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities, the major divisions of industries are:

i = 1. Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing i = 2. Mining and quarrying i = 3. Manufacturing i = 4. Electricity, gas and water i = 5. Construction i = 6. Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels i = 7. Transport, storage and communication i = 8. Financing, insurance, real estate and business services i = 9. Community, social and personal services i = 10. Activities not adequately defined

52

Lectures

In tabular form the structural distribution can be demonstrated as shown in Table 3.1 for the base year 0.

Table 3.1: Distribution of G D P by economic sector (base year)

Industry G D P G D P Share of total

Agriculture X 1.0 P1.0

Mining X 2 .0 P2.0

Manufacturing 3.0 p3.0

Services 9.0

Others X10.0 P10.0

Total X0 1.0

Economic development, in particular, industrial development will change the share of different industries in the total G D P resulting in structural transformation of the economy.

The structural transformation will change the values of pj (i = l, 2, ... 10) depending upon the growth rates of each industry, which are often predetermined by policy.

Л 1 1 « , \ T Л . т Л . Ч -

p 1(1+^) - T ' T l'T

Where Sj is the average annual growth rate of the industry i.

y Let us remember that ¿-* n _ = 1

"• Ki .T

and X X (l+Si)T = 3^

Xjj is target year contribution to G D P of the industry i, i= 1,2,...10

53


This will result in Table 3.2 for the economic structure of the country in the target year T .

Table 3.2: Economic structure of the country in target year T

Industry G D P at year T Share of G D P

Agriculture l.T "l.T

Mining X 2 . T P 2 . T

Manufacturing 3.T P 3 . T

Services

Others X 10.T P10.T

* T Total T 1.0

3.3.3 Step 3: Estimating labour productivity by economic sector for target year and its change between base and target year

The productivity of labour for each sector is estimated from the G D P of each sector divided by the number of workers in that sector. For the base year, this can be represented in Table 3.3.

D u e to changes in the technology, means of production and organization of work, labour productivity will change in varying degrees for the different sectors. These changes are estimated from (1) past trends or (2) model country productivities or (3) international comparison or (4) experts' judgement or (5) a combination of several of (1) to (4).

Let the productivity growth rate estimated as above for the sector i = u^, then

^i.T. = qi.O (1 + U i ) T

Where q^j = productivity of the sector i in the target year T . This gives us Table 3.4 for the target year.

The overall labour productivity can then be estimated as: q j = Xy/L-p

54

Lectures

Table 3.3: Labour productivity of G D P by economic sector (Base year)

Industry GDP N o . of workers Labour productivity

Agriculture

Mining

Manufacturing

X;

X,

X.

X.

L.

b.

Xi/Li

= 4-X J / L J = M1.0

X 2 / L 2 = q2.0

X 3 / L 3 = q3.0

Services

Others

л 9

10 '10 X10/L = 4 l 0 - °

Total X Q / L 0

q0

Table 3.4: Labour productivity by economic sector (Target year)

Industry

Agriculture

Mining

Manufacturing

G D P in year T

X 1 . T

Y 2.T

Y З.Т

Productivity in year T

ql.T

q 2 T

q 3.T

No . of workers in year T

Xl.T/ql.T = L 1 .T

^Ijfil.T = L 2 . T

X 3 . T / q 3 . T = L 3 . T

Services

Others

Total

X 9.T

X 10.T

X ^

*9.T

40.T

9 T / ^ 9 T = 9 T

X10.T/q10.T = L10.T

4

55


3.3.4 Step 4: Estimating the occupational structure of the labour force within each of the economic sectors in the target year

( 4) The International Standard Classification of Occupations gives the following major

groups of occupations

j = 0/1: Professional, technical and related workers, for convenience let j = 1 in our case,

j = 2 : Administrative and managerial workers j = 3 : Clerical and related workers j = 4 : Sales workers j = 5 : Service workers j = 6 : Agriculture, animal husbandry and forestry workers, fishermen and hunters J = 7/8/9: Production and related workers, transport equipment

operators and labourers, for convenience let j = 7 in our case j = 10 : Workers not classifiable by occupation and members of the

armed forces, for convenience let j = 8 in our case.

First let us examine the occupational structure of the labour force within each economic sector for the base year. Within each sector w e shall compute the proportion of each occupation listed above. (See Table 3.5).

Table 3.5: Labour force by occupation and economic sector (Base year)

Industry/ Professional Administrative Production Others Total occupation

Agriculture ]1 4 .2 .. 4 . 8 1.0

Mining l2A l22 .. !2.8 1.0

Services

Others Ч о . ! *10.2 .. *10.8 1.0

Note that 1J: = Ц т . = proportion of labour force in sector i with occupation j.

i = 1, 2 .... 10; j = 1, 2 .... 8.

For the target year, the proportions will change because of changes in the economy, technological changes, changes in the means of production and in the organization of work, changes in the qualification level in the labour force, etc.

56

Lectures

The method of incorporating these changes will be discussed later. For the time being, let us assume that: \\i= aj: IJÎQ where 1J:Q is the proportion of labour force with occupation j in the economic sector i for the base year and 1 -p is the same for the target year.

a^ is the proportional change in I^Q

aij>0

, T For example, aj: could be equal to (1 + r-) , where rj: is the growth rate in the proportion on average per year.

So we can have the target year labour force for each occupation within each economic sector once l y values have been calculated because from Table 3.4, we already know the total labour force for each sector in the target year and Ц : у = l y x L-j where Ц : у is target year labour force in occupation j and sector i ana L-p total labour force in sector i in target year (see Table 3.6).

Table 3.6: Labour force by occupation and sector (Target year)

Professional Administrative Others Industry/ Occupation

Agriculture

Mining

L ll.T

'2.1T

L 1.2T

"2.2T

L 1.8T

J2.8T

Total

'l.T

L. 2.T

Services

Others

Total

'10.1T

R 1 . T

'10.2T

2 T

L 10.8T

R8T

'10.T

Lr

RjY = Total no. of workers with occupation j.

This leads us to the final step:

3.3.5 Step 5: Estimating the educational structure of the labour force in given occupations within economic sectors in target year

4jk_

As before, this is also done on the basis of the base year observations. First the educational levels and types (k) are determined and the number of workers with different levels and types of education within each occupation are noted. The proportion of each level and type of education within each occupation is computed. This proportion is the

57


basis for future projection. The base year values of proportions (e^) can be demonstrated in Table 3.7.

Table 3.7: Proportion of educated in different occupations by level and type of education (Base year)

Occupation/ Education

Professional

Administrative

Postgraduate

ell

e21

Level and

Graduate

e12

e 22

type

Senior secondary

e13

e23

Junior secondary

e14

Primary

e15

Others

e16

e26

Total

1.0

1.0

Agricultural workers

Production & related

Services

Others -81 '83 '86 1.0

The changes in these proportions are also determined for the target year in the same way as the changes in the occupational structure.

Let us assume that ejkT - ajk ejk0

In a particular case we may have a; = (1 + г^лТ where r- is the average annual growth rate in the proportion of labour force with education к within occupation j. eikT = ProPorti°n of labour force for the same in target year (T) and e^o is the same for the base year, a;^ is the change in the proportion e^Q for education j and occupation k. Since we know the total number of workers for each occupation in the target year, we can easily obtain the total number of workers for each type of education in that occupation by multiplying the total number of workers by e^y

For example, to get the number of professionals needed with post- graduate degree (EJJ J ) we have to simply multiply R^ j by е-цт/ (see Table 3.7) or in general Е :^т = R-y eikT' j = 1, 2 ... 8; к = 1,2 ... 6. This gives us Table 3.8.

In the Table, F^j = Total no. of workers required for the year T with education к to achieve the economic growth rate envisaged in our forecasts, based on the assumptions given above.

58

Lectures

Table 3.8: N o . of educated needed for the different occupations by level and type of education (Target year)

Occupation/ Education

Professional

Administrative

Agriculturists Production

Others

Total

It should be noted that steps (1) to (3) pertain to general economic planning. O u r concern as educational planners will be the last two steps which deal with occupational and educational forecasting. A s indicated above, w e shall give the different methods of forecasting the occupational structure below.

Several alternative ways have been used in different countries in their attempts to forecast the occupational structure:

(1) International models, i.e., to observe the occupational structure of a country at a more advanced level of development and hypothesize that this is the desired structure in the country where the forecast is being m a d e .

This m a y consist in the use of M o d e l country comparisons, for example, Puerto-Rico utilized the coefficients of the United States, and Italy those of France.

It m a y also be Group country comparisons such as the use of parameters estimated from m a n y O E C D countries.

(2) Model firm comparisons, i.e., to observe the occupational structure of the most modern or efficient firms and stipulate that their occupational structure can be adopted for the plan.

In the socialist countries, for instance, the "model firm" is taken to be the one using the latest technology.

(3) Staffing norms, i.e., to follow the advice of experts or simply intuitive insight of the planner and specify certain desired ratios of engineers-to-technicians, doctors-to-nurses, and so on.

Postgraduate

E l.l.T

E

Graduate

E 1.2.T

Senior secondary

E 1.3.T

Junior secondary

E 1.4.T

Primary

E 1.5.T

E 2.6.T

Others

E 1.6.Т.

Total

E R l.T.= l.T

E R

E E E R 8.1.T 8.6.T 8.T= 8.T F F F F F F

LT 2.T З.Т 4.T 5.T 6.T L -

59


This technique is often used in the agricultural sector in general and in the socialist countries.

(4) Time series extrapolation, to predict the occupational structure simply as a function of time following past trends:

This method has been used extensively in French planning.

4j/Li = f« In most cases, more than one of these methods is used depending on the economic

activity being analyzed, as mentioned earlier.

It should be noted that changes in the occupational structure due to changes in the economy, especially technological changes, are to be taken into consideration at this stage.

3.3.6 Forecasting the educational structure

There exist, in general, two distinct classes of methods for expressing the forecast in educational terms: those working from occupation to education, and those which by-pass the occupational dimension and produce directly the forecast in terms of education. W e have considered above the first class of methods.

The educational content of given occupations is found according to a typical, idealized structure (methods followed by French planners). It could also follow the international model, group country comparison or model country comparison method described above.

It should be noted here that possible substitution between education and occupation can be taken into account at this stage.

3.3.7 By-passing the occupational forecast

In this case, the educational structure is derived as a direct function of labour productivity, i.e.

F ^ = f(X/L) or from a more general production function where a labour utilization coefficient (b) links output to educated labour, i.e.

F k = b.X

3.4 The supply side

3.4.1 Based on manpower demand

From the total number of workers required for the year T with education к and obtained in Table 3.8, one can estimate the intake to the relevant education/training. However, it should be remembered that output of a particular level and type of training depends upon the duration of the training. For example, let us estimate the intake necessary for the supply of Fkt number of workers required for the year T with education k. Let us assume that it take n years to graduate from this level and type of education. W e can construct the following Table 3.9 remembering that in the base year о there are already students in the course for n years of studies, who will graduate during the next n years batch by batch. Those who were admitted in year -n (I-n) will graduate in year о (Go) and will be added to the workforce in year 1 (wl). Those who are admitted in year o (lo) will graduate in year n(Gn) and will be added to the workforce in year n + 1 (wn + 1).

60

Lectures

Table 3.9: Intake forecasts for manpower supply with education type and level к for target year T

Year Intake Graduates New workers Adjusted stock Total No. from previous of workers

3. 4. year 5 _ 6 = 4+5

-(n-1)

о 1 i i

n-1 n n + 1

I I I

T-n-1

T-n

T-l

T

Wo Wl

Fo Fl

w T

N o w let us look at Table 3.9. Column 1 gives the years starting from -n going through o, T-n ending at T , the target year of our forecasts. The year -n is included in the table because the students admitted in year -n will graduate in year о and are included in our stock of manpower. Column 2 gives the students admitted in a year corresponding to column 1 and are denoted by In for the year n. Column 3 gives the number of graduates corresponding to the intakes in Column 2. Note that it takes n years to graduate. So G o is the number of graduates in year о from an intake I -n n years earlier. The values in the column of graduates are obtained by multiplying the intake values by the corresponding transition rates from intake to graduation. These rates take account of dropout, repetition and failure. For simplicity it is expressed by one compact indicator say g.

For practical purposes this may remain constant. Then Go = I-n . g

and

&Г-1

Gn = I o

_ X T-n-1 . g Not all graduates will join the work force the following year. Some will drop out because of emigration, home conditions, personal and other reasons. Let the participation rate be h.

Let us denote the additional workers in year n by w n . Then

61


wl = Go . h

wn = Gn-1 . h

wn+l = Gn . h

wT = & t-1 . h

These values are given in column 4. Mote mat wn + l is predetermined because G n is predetermined because Io is the intake in year о which should be known. Column 5 is the stock in a year adjusted from the previous year for loss due to death, resignation, emigration, retirement etc. Let us call this rate f.

The stock in previous years is given in column 6 as the total number of workers in a particular year. W e know Fo the stock of manpower with education к in year o. W e know also

Fl = Fo (1-f) ( = W 1 ) + wl ( = Go.h)

Similarly we know all the values of F up to Fn +1 but no more. And we know F T the target year requirement of total number of workers with education к from Table 3.8. H o w are intermediate values obtained? Let us assume a linear increase Л in the number of workers for the years from n + 1 to T as follows:

Years Total No. of workers

n+1 Fn+1 (known)

n+2 Fn+1 + Д

n+3 Fn+1 + 2A

T-1 Fn+1 + (Т-п-2)Д = T-1

T Fn+1 + (T-n-l)Ä = ^ T

Therefore Д = FT - Fn+1

(T-n-1)

Replacing A by the calculated amount, we get total number of workers for each year from n + 1 to T

Now WT = FT-1 (1-f)

and vJT = FT - WT

Since we know the participation rate among the graduates

we know

and

Similarly we can compute all the values from I T-n-1 to I 1. So the intakes II to I T-n-1 will provide us with the necessary manpower F T with level of education к in the target year T based on the rates of transition, participation and loss due to resignation, retirement, death, emigration etc. as assumed in the model.

Applying the same method, we can compute the intakes for all other types and levels of education.

G T-1 = WT h

- T - n - 1 = T-1 g

62

Lectures

T h e supply projections based on social d e m a n d involve three basic steps:

(1) Mak ing population projections by school age groups. These projections take place according to any standard demographical model or, in certain cases, they are simple time extrapolations;

(2) Assessing the number of graduates by educational level and type. This follows the social d e m a n d model , namely school level transition probabilities are applied to the base population cohorts. These are followed through time until they exit the educational system, formal or non-formal.

(3) Determining the labour force participants. This is achieved by applying the sex-age-educational level specific labour force participation rates to the graduates generated in the previous step.

3.5 Balancing supply to d e m a n d

It is very unlikely that the d e m a n d for qualified m a n p o w e r matches exactly the spontaneous supply assessed in 3.4.2. It is for this reason that a final exercise has to be undertaken, that is the adjustment to equate both sides, supply and demand . 2

3.5.1 Revising the demand and/or supply projections

This is usually done in two simultaneous ways that are not mutually exclusive.

If (Ejk) as estimated from the d e m a n d side is very different from the (Ejk) assessed from the supply side, the m a n p o w e r planner will most likely go back to his computations and revise some of the assumptions used in d e m a n d and supply projections.

It might be realized, for example, that, the productivity coefficients used for future labour on the d e m a n d side were too optimistic. O r else, for instance, the participation ratio adopted regarding the labour force on the supply side was too pessimistic. Several other assumptions could be re-examined in light of certain factors. B y selecting other parameters than those assumed originally the planner can reconcile a great deal of the discrepancy between future supply of and d e m a n d for qualified m a n p o w e r .

3.5.2 Formulating the final plan

This step is the only genuine policy action for identifying m a n p o w e r surpluses or deficits not likely to be covered automatically by spontaneous supply and then arranging for the output of educational programmes to equal supply and d e m a n d at the target year of the plan. T h e output has also to be phased year by year up to the target year. T h e policy of intake is to be based on these output figures, taking into account failure, drop-out and repetition parameters and other losses and additions.

T h e supply of educated m a n p o w e r m a y also be balanced with d e m a n d by computing the required output for each level and type of education adjusting for losses and additions. T h e intake to each level and type is to be computed from the required output,

The supply of manpower as projected in 3.4.1 will automatically match with the demand projections.

However this need not be the case with the projection of manpower supply as discussed in 3.4.2. For

discussions on balancing supply to demand, supply projections of 3.4.2 are considered.

63


taking account of failures, drop-outs and repetitions. T h e total intake for each level and type is then to be distributed for each year a m o n g the institutions.

3.5.3 Other methods of projecting qualified manpower needs

(a) Tinbergen mode l : this is one variation of the M R P mode l . It bypasses occupational forecasts, neglects primary education enrolments and goes straight to estimating educational requirements, giving special attention to the required n u m b e r of teachers, delineating the path of enrolments from the base year to the target year. It also pays special attention to the replacement of expatriates by national qualified m a n p o w e r . 3

(b) Saturation norms method: saturation norms are ratios of qualified manpower to the total labour force or total production. These norms are established for different groups of enterprises and for different types of qualified manpower. W h e n the total labour force or total output of production in the future is estimated, the number of qualified manpower needed can be determined.

(c) Personnel nomenclature method: the nomenclature is a list of posts to be filled by qualified m a n p o w e r . It is drawn u p by means of expert analysis of each sector of the economy , group of enterprises or even a single enterprise, for the target year based on an analysis of the existing situation and future means of production of goods and services. T h e coefficients of qualification structure for each sector, group of enterprises or single enterprise (ratio of specialists with higher education to those with specialized secondary education, for example) are used to determine the n u m b e r and type of qualified m a n p o w e r which will be necessary.4

In addition there are several other methods of projecting qualified m a n p o w e r needs, namely, the input-output model , linear programming mode l , social d e m a n d model , labour absorption mode l , etc. These, however, do not have m u c h practical application. (For details one m a y read the works referred to in the article by G . Psacharopoulos and M . Debeauvais cited earlier).

3.6 Problems encountered in projecting qualified m a n p o w e r needs

T h e problems arise principally from the assumptions incorporated in the methods w h e n they are put into practice. These are:

(a) T h e occupational distribution in an economic sector is not as rigid in practice as is. assumed in the M R P method. Inter-occupational substitution occurs, generally due to economic changes, but especially due to technological changes, making the projection inaccurate.

(b) The educational distribution of the labour force for an occupation is also not as rigid in practice as is assumed in the M R P method. Substitution of a level and type of education within an occupation by another level and type does take place, further

Tinbergen J. and Bos H . C . " A planning model for the educational requirements of economic develop

ment" in Econometric Models of Education, Paris, O E C D , 1965.

Ivanov I.V. "Skilled manpower planning, forecasting and training in the U S S R " in R . V . Youdi and K .

Hinchliffe, op. cit.

64

Lectures

contributing to inaccuracy of the projection.

(c) In countries where the educational system is extremely diverse, it becomes difficult to relate the level and type of education to an occupation.

(d) Depending on wages, prices and availability, enterprises produce given amounts of output with widely varying mixes of labour and machinery, making any forecasting of manpower extremely difficult.

(e) Uncertainties about the economic growth of each sector, productivity changes, variation in the participation rates of the labour force and in the educational system, mobility of m a n p o w e r , etc., especially w h e n forecasts m a d e relate to a long time period (as in the case of qualified m a n p o w e r needs), m a k e the task of projection extremely difficult.

(f) In the saturation and personnel nomencla ture m e t h o d s , the total labour force or the total output are often over-estimated in practice because of extensive and intensive involvement of the enterprises and the influence they exert o n the estimations wh ich is often subjective. T h e n o r m s applied for determining the different types of qualified m a n p o w e r are also subject to bias of the experts. Objective analysis is often impossible.

Finally, the available projection m e t h o d s have not been able to take into account the rural-urban imbalance in m a n p o w e r distribution and the costs of executing a m a n p o w e r plan.

In spite of the above defects, these m e t h o d s d o provide s o m e indication as to the direction education should take, especially w h e n a country is commi t t ed to modern ization, and an attempt is m a d e to relate education with e m p l o y m e n t . W i t h an improved information base, s o m e of the defects can b e rectified, although e c o n o m i c uncertainties will always exist. N e w m e t h o d s of projection are expected to b e developed using an informat ion base wh ich will provide signals for steering the d e v e l o p m e n t of education, with a continuous monitoring, feedback and control system.

65

Lecture 4

Theories of the labour market

by Maureen Woodhall

4.1 Introduction

The previous module of the course has been concerned with the "manpower approach to educational planning", which rests on a number of crucial assumptions:

• In order to achieve a desired level of output, or economic growth, the economy of a country "requires" or "needs" certain minimum inputs of labour, physical capital and raw materials.

9 There is a fixed, or constant, relationship between the input of skilled manpower in different occupational categories in an industry, sector or the economy as a whole, and the level of output. This means that it is possible to identify, and to project or forecast, the manpower structure "required" to achieve desired output targets.

• There is a fixed, or constant, relationship between the educational qualifications of workers and the occupational structure.

e The main purpose of educational and manpower planning is to ensure that the educational system produces the right combination of skilled manpower, in order to achieve the desired level of output and to avoid shortages or surpluses of skilled manpower.

These assumptions, which you have examined in more detail in previous session, have been challenged by critics of the "manpower forecasting approach" to educational planning. A n alternative approach has been advocated, based on the concept of "human capital". This approach is based on the idea that education is a form of investment in human capital, which provides workers with knowledge and skills which raise their productivity in employment, and therefore increase future levels of output and national income.

The idea that education is a form of investment in human capital, which is analogous to investment in physical capital and which can be analyzed using the same techniques of cost-benefit analysis, or rates of return, was developed in the 1960s by American economists such as Schultz (1963) and Becker (1964) and has a number of important implications for educational planning.

But just as the advocates of the human capital approach reject the assumptions of the manpower forecasting approach to planning, so there have been many attacks and criticisms of the underlying assumptions of human capital theories and the cost-benefit approach to educational planning. Mark Blaug (1970) has summarized the conflicting theories and assumptions underlying the two approaches in terms of "two views of the state of the world", which represent "nothing less than totally different views of how economic systems work" (Blaug 1970, p.214).

66

Lectures

The simple dichotomy that he describes in terms of two views about the labour market for educated manpower has been m a d e more complicated in recent years by the development of new theories of the labour market. The concept of h u m a n capital has been attacked by those w h o argue that education does not directly increase the productivity of workers by imparting knowledge or skills, but simply acts as a "screening device" or "filter", which enables employers to identify workers with particular characteristics. In order to evaluate these alternative theories w e need empirical evidence about h o w the labour market works.

But some economists argue that there is not one labour market but a series of "segmented markets" with different characteristics for different groups of workers. W e are thus faced not simply with two views of the world but with a series of alternative theories of the labour market for educated manpower which rest on conflicting assumptions and give rise to different policy implications.

W e will examine each of these theories in turn, and finally, in the discussion and practical exercises that follow this lecture, w e will test some of the hypotheses generated by the theories and explore the policy implications.

4.2 T h e theory of h u m a n capital

The idea that education is a form of investment in h u m a n capital, and that the profitability of different types of investment can be measured using cost-benefit, or rate of return analysis, rests on the following crucial assumptions:

e education makes workers more productive, by giving them knowledge and skills that improve their work performance and enable them to achieve higher levels of output than uneducated workers.

• markets for goods and services are competitive, so that the prices of both labour and capital reflect their marginal productivity. This means that employers will employ more labour only if the value of the extra output produced exceeds the additional cost (measured by wages or salaries). If wages or salaries are higher than the marginal productivity of labour, then employers will substitute capital for labour, in order to maximize their profits.

• the relative wages of salaries of different workers also reflect their marginal productivity, so that educated workers will have higher earnings than uneducated because of their higher productivity. Employers will employ skilled or educated workers only if the value of their extra output exceeds the additional cost; if not, then employers will substitute unskilled labour for educated workers.

• the extra lifetime earnings of educated workers can therefore be used to measure the direct economic benefits of education both for the individual (private benefits) and for society as a whole (social benefits) (see Figure 4.1). In order to measure the total social benefits, some allowance must also be m a d e for indirect, or "spill-over" benefits (externalities).

• private and social benefits can be compared with the opportunity cost of education to give a measure of profitability (the benefit-cost ratio, net present value or rate of return) of different types of education, to help explain the private demand for education and provide a guide for resource allocation and educational planning (see Figure 4.2 and Table 4.1).

67


с о £ -

o CL

1,200-

a

ш 1,000

800r

600

400

200

engineering graduate

graduate (B.A., B.Sc.)

matriculate

middle primary illiterate

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

age

Source: Blaug, Layard and Woodhall (1969

Figure 4.1: A g e earnings profiles for Indian workers by level of education, 1960

Lectures

£ 45

¿I 35

discount rate (per cent)

Discounted present value of net social returns to first degree (B.A., B . S c .

B. C o m . ) over matriculation

Source: Blaug, Layard and Woodhall (1969

Figure 4.2: The rate of return to Indian higher education 1960

The human capital model of the labour market therefore relies heavily on three basic assumptions:

• markets are competitive, so that prices can be used as a measure of relative demand

• prices of goods and salaries will move up and down in response to changes in demand or supply, in order to maintain an equilibrium between demand and supply

• techniques of production are flexible, so that employers can substitute capital for labour or unskilled labour for skilled or qualified workers.

All these assumptions are challenged in alternative theories of the labour market. The manpower forecasting model challenges the assumption that labour markets are competitive and flexible. Blaug summarizes the different assumptions of the human capital and manpower forecasting model in terms of the "two views of the world" shown

69

Table 4.1: Returns to investment in education, by country, type and level

Region

Africa Asia

P

Latin America Europe, Middle

East, and North Africa

Developing countries

Developed countries

Asia

Hong Kong

India

Indonesia

Malaysia

Pakistan

Philippines

Singapore South Korea

Taiwan

Thailand

1976

1965

1978 1977

1978

1978

1975 1979

1971 1977

1966 1967

1969

1971

1973

1980

1970

1972

1970

1972

r unary

28 27 26

13

24

—

• 13.4

29.3

21.9

13.0

7.0

6.6

27.0

30.5 63.2

Social

Secondary

17 15 18

10

15

11

15.0' 15.5 13.7

16.2

9.0

6.5

17.6

9.0

11.0

14.6

12.2

8.1

26.5

12.3

13.0

30.9

Higher

13 13 16

8

13

9

12.4

10.3

10.8

14.8

8.0

8.5

8.5 14.1

5.0

. 9.5

9.3

8.8

11.7

15.0

17.7

11.0 18.4

Primary

45 31 32

17

31

—

17.3

33.4

25.5

20.0

14.6

9.0

50.0

56.0

Private

Secondary

26 15 23

13

19

12

18.5

18.8

19.8

15.6

32.6

11.0 6.7

6.5

20.0

16.1

17.6

12.7

14.5

Higher

32 18 23

13

22

12

25.2

16.2

13.2

34.5

27.0 9.4

9.5

16.0 25.4

16.2

18.4

15.8

14.0

Number of

countries reporting

16 10 10

9

45

15

— Data were not available because no control group ot illiterates was available. \<>.v; Privare returns take into account oniv the cost or education to the individual. In contrast, social returns are based on the

-"duc.Kion to society, so thev are comparanveiv lower. Si-urce: Psacharopoulos 1985..

Lectures

in Figure 4.3. H e admits that "Needless to say the real world lies somewhere in between", but the question is "does it lie nearer to the right or to the left of the continuum?". Blaug's " two views of the world" suggest that the basic question is whether the labour market is competitive and flexible. But other models of the labour market raise other fundamental questions.

The Man-Power Forecasting View of the World

The Rate-of-Return View of the World

1. Students acquire more education for consumption reasons.

2. Students choose major subjects in ignorance of, or with no regard to, career prospects.

3. All education is specialized and specialization starts early.

4 . All input-coefficients in schools are fixed: complete indivisibility and specificity of teachers, plant and equipment.

5. The demand curves for different skills shift discretely.

6. Near-zero elasticities of substitution between skilled m e n .

7. Near-zero elasticities of demand for different skills.

1. Students acquire more education for investment reasons.

2 . Students are well informed and attentive to career prospects.

3. All education is general and there is no specialization at any age.

4 . All input-coefficients in schools are variable: complete divisibility and non-specificity of teachers, plant and equipment.

5. The demand curves for different' skills shift smoothly.

6. Almost infinite elasticities of substitution between skilled m e n .

7. Almost infinite elasticities of demand for different skills.

Figure 4.3: " T w o views of the world'

4.3 T h e "Screening" or "Filter" theory

T h e h u m a n capital theory predicts that educated workers will have higher lifetime earnings than less educated or illiterate workers, and data for m o r e than sixty countries confirm that education does, indeed, lead to higher average lifetime earnings. T h e question is what does this prove? H u m a n capital theories suggest that it is the knowledge and skills imparted by education that m a k e qualified m a n p o w e r m o r e productive, and that employers pay higher wages and salaries, in order to benefit from the higher levels of output of educated workers.

A n alternative theory, k n o w n generally as the "screening" or "filter" hypothesis, suggests that educated workers are paid m o r e , not because of their superior knowledge or skills, but because employers recognize that they have higher innate ability and certain

71


characteristics and attitudes that m a k e them more useful as workers than those w h o lack the experience of formal education. In the 1970s American economists such as Arrow (1973), argued that education did not directly improve workers' productivity, but simply acted as a convenient "filter", "signal" or "screening device" which enabled employers to identify those with superior ability and personal attributes, such as motivation, self discipline and positive attitudes to work, authority or modernization, which would m a k e them more productive.

If this is true then education would still be a profitable private investment, since it would enable individuals to enjoy higher earnings, but if education has no direct effect on productivity, it would represent a vast waste of public resources. This argument was taken up by Dore (1976) w h o warned of the dangers of "credentialism", leading to the "diploma disease". If the number of highly qualified workers is relatively small, then a university degree m a y be regarded by employers as an effective "filter" or "screening device". But rapid expansion of university education would m e a n that employers would require a more effective "filter" and so would begin to demand higher and higher qualifications, in order to identify those with the required ability and attributes.

O n e way to test the screening hypothesis is to use earnings functions to measure the independent effect of different factors, such as age, educational level, ability (as measured by 1 0 tests) on earnings. But even though earnings functions demonstrate that education does have an effect on earnings, after other factors such as innate ability are taken into account, it does not show why employers pay educated workers more. If it is because long experience has convinced them that only graduates have the knowledge and mental skills required for particular jobs, then this supports the h u m a n capital model. But if in fact they care nothing for these cognitive skills, but pay graduates more simply because they believe graduates will be more determined or more disciplined, than less educated workers then education would indeed be no more than a "filter".

Once again, w e have two views of the world, or at least two views of employer behaviour, and once again the real world lies somewhere between. In fact there are two versions of the screening hypothesis:

• the "strong" version, which suggests that education does nothing to improve workers' productivity. In this case w e might predict that the earnings differentials of educated workers would narrow over time, as employers begin to use direct evidence of workers' performance on the job to determine wages or salaries, rather than educational qualifications that enabled them to be appointed to the job in the first place. But in fact earnings differentials tend to widen, rather than narrow, over time.

• the "weak" version, which suggests that education does act as a screening device, but that this is socially useful, since it enables employers to identify those with motivation, positive attitudes towards work and the ability to learn new skills quickly, on the job.

If w e accept the "weak" version, then this model does not destroy the h u m a n capital model, but simply adds another dimension. By emphasizing the importance of motivation and attitudes, it suggests that education improves productivity not simply by imparting knowledge and cognitive skills, but by inculcating or changing attitudes and by developing social and communication skills. According to this argument, the early version of the h u m a n capital theory were not wrong, so m u c h as incomplete. They ignored, or underestimated some of the indirect benefits of education.

72

Lectures

O n e of these indirect benefits is that education performs the socially valuable function of improving selection for jobs, by giving employers better information or "signals" about workers' attributes. In fact it can be argued that it is both more efficient and more equitable for employers to use educational qualifications as a "filter" than to use other personal characteristics, such as sex, race, religion, caste or social class.

However, this brings us to another objection to the h u m a n capital model, which is that there is not a single labour market but a series of "segmented labour markets" for different groups of workers, and that characteristics such as sex or race determine access to these.

4.4 Segmented labour market theories

The first version of this model emphasized the difference between the "modern" and the "traditional" sectors of the economy, and suggested that the characteristics of jobs in these two sectors were so different that the two sectors represented dual labour markets:

• the "primary" labour market, with modern techniques of production and capital, and large-scale employers offering skilled jobs with job security

• the "secondary" labour market, with traditional techniques, limited capital and small-scale employers offering "dead-end" or temporary jobs, with a high rate of labour turnover.

According to this model, high productivity is a characteristic of jobs, rather than people (Carnoy 1977) and this leads to the "job competition model", which suggests that education provides access to high productivity jobs, in the modern sector, but it does not directly affect the productivity of the workers themselves.

Labour economists such as Doeringer and Piore (1971) developed the idea of a "dual" labour market and emphasized the importance of "internal labour markets" which operate in large-scale organizations, where employers offer on-the-job training and promotion only to their o w n employees. Educated workers are more likely to have access to such "internal labour markets", and therefore the higher earnings of the educated m a y simply reflect this access to a restricted "segment" of the labour market, rather than higher productivity.

M o r e radical labour market theories go further, and economists such as Carnoy (1980) have developed the theory of labour market segmentation and argue that access to certain "segments" of the labour market is restricted to particular groups of workers. According to this model, the segmentation of labour markets reflects the basic conflicts of a capitalist system, with its class struggle and the desire of capitalists to weaken the working class by dividing and fragmenting the labour force.

There is plenty of evidence that different groups of workers have access to different types of jobs. In m a n y countries w o m e n and ethnic minorities are more likely to be concentrated in temporary, low-paid and low status jobs, with no job security and no prospects for on-the-job training. But this does not prove that the arguments of the extreme segmented labour market theories are valid; nor does the fact that workers in urban areas have access to better paid jobs than rural workers. There are several studies that show that rates of return to education are higher in urban areas than rural areas. This is entirely consistent with the h u m a n capital theory.

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What is important is the degree of mobility between different types of job. If education and on-the-job training increase the mobility of workers, then this is simply another example of the economic benefits of investment in human capital. If on the other hand, mobility is very restricted, then this would support the segmented labour market model.

4.5 Conclusion

W e are left not with two views of the world, but with several views, which provide different explanations for:

• the association between education and earnings

* the hiring practices of employers

» the distribution of income.

Some of these models of the labour market lead to mutually inconsistent predictions, and therefore to different conclusions about how to improve the links between education and employment, and in particular to different conclusions about the value of "vocational-izing" education. In other cases, alternative theories can be regarded as providing new insights, rather than conflicting models of how labour markets actually work. As Blaug emphasized in 1970, the real world lies somewhere between the extreme theories summarized in this lecture. More recently, he has argued (1985) that if we add together certain concepts emphasized in these theories, for example the notions of "screening" and "internal labour markets", then "we arrive at a picture of the economic value of schooling that is simply miles removed from the old-fashioned belief that education makes workers more productive and that employers pay them more because they are more productive".

Nevertheless, even if the original formulation of the concept of human capital can be criticized for over-emphasizing this "old-fashioned belief", the concept of investment in human capital remains a powerful theoretical tool. Rather than destroying the validity of this tool, the alternative theories have demonstrated that the relationship between education and employment is far more complex than was first supposed.

4.6 References

Arrow, K.J. (1973) "Higher Education as a Filter", Journal of Public Economics July, pp. 193-216.

Becker, G . (1964) Human Capital N e w York: Columbia University Press.

Blaug, M . (1970) An Introduction to the Economics of Education. London: Penguin Books.

—(1985) "Where are we now in the Economics of Education?", Economics of Education Review, Vol. 4(1), pp. 17-28.

Blaug, M . , Layard, R . , Woodhall, M . (1969) The Causes of Graduate Unemployment in India. Allen Lane, Penguin Books.

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Lectures

Carnoy, M . (1977) Education and Employment: A Critical Appraisal. Paris: H E P (Fundamentals of Educational Planning Series).

— (1980) "Segmented Labour Markets", in M . Carnoy, H . Levin and K . King, Education, Work and Employment, Vol. II. Paris: H E P .

Dore, R . (1976) The Diploma Disease: Education, Qualification and Development London: George Allen and Unwin.

Doeringer, P .B. and Piore, M J. (1971) Internal Labor Markets and Manpower Analysis. Lexington, Mass.

Psacharopoulos, G . (1985) "Returns to Education: A Further International Update and Implications", Journal of Human Resources, Fall, pp. 583-604.

Schultz, T . (1963) The Economic Value of Education. N e w York: Columbia University Press.

Lecture 5

Tracer studies to relate education with employment

by Bikas C . Sanyal

5.1 Introduction

Research on the relationship between education and employment has received significant attention in recent years among educational decision-makers, planners and administrators. It is now ell recognized that simple quantitative forecasts of manpower needs cannot provide precise enough direction for the development of the education system. The relationship between education and employment can no longer be based on such forecasting models alone. The fact that there are aspects of this relationship which remain unknown makes it more complex. Researchers have to look into this unknown area, particularly at a time when the problem of unemployment among youth is becoming more and more critical. Overall open unemployment has been increasing at a very fast rate in almost all countries, except those where the economic recession has not been serious. However,the number of such countries are very few.

The problem in magnitude started increasing in the seventies. Although economic stagnation was believed to be the main cause behind this problem, it was also felt that many other factors were contributing to such a situation. These were sociological, psychological, administrative and organizational factors, which researchers had to identify in order to provide new tools for decision-makers to remedy this problem. However, such research has not always followed the same conceptual framework; different points of view about the relationship between education and employment have been the basis for different types of research. At one extreme, there is the point of view that the relationship between education and employment is artificially imposed by the society and vested interest plays a dominant role to keep a 'status quo' in such a relationship, thus perpetuating social hierarchy, discrimination and segmentation in the society. At the other extreme, it is held that educational systems could be reformed to provide skills to meet the social and economic development needs, as well as to meet individual expectations for upward social mobility, without going into the socio-psychological complexity of the relationship, reducing the analysis to the traditional quantitative forecasting exercises.

In what follows, we attempt to take into account the influence of the social structure on the development of education in relation to employment, based on the belief that reforrn measures if properly planned and implemented can redue the problem of unemployment. A combination of two approaches has been utilized, as described in the following sections.

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Lectures

5.2 The conceptual framework of the relationship

It is argued that interdependence between educational development and the overall socioeconomic development of a country in general, and development of employment in particular, calls for an analysis of the resource potential in natural, physical and human categories. To develop each region in a balanced way, the development strategy of a country should take account of whatever natural resource potential is available in that region. The process of exploitation and the choice of technology will be determined inter alia by natural resource potential. The exploitation of these resources needs skills which must be provided by the education system. The way in which natural resources are exploited, therefore, influences the educational development strategy in structure and content. It is also dependent on the available and potential physical resources such as building equipment, transportation and communication facilities. Development of these physical resources depends in turn on the development of education and vice versa. A n analysis of physical resources potential therefore becomes an important task in ascertaining the role of ducation in the overall development strategy of a country.

In the analysis of the development of human resources, traditions, customs and beliefs cherished by the people cannot be ignored. Demographic changes influence the human resource potential as well. Education, for that matter higher education, has to be planned in such a way s to develop this human resource potential in order to respond to the needs of the social and economic development of the country, while considering the expectations and attitudes of the people. A n analysis of human resource development therefore becomes imperative in the overall analysis of the relationship between education and employment.

The conditions of work, recruitment and promotion policy of the employment market influence the type of qualification that an employee would have. The full employment policy, on the one hand, has to guarantee a job for every individual. In countries where this policy does not prevail, individual initiative is necessary for obtaining employment. Therefore, the development of human resources becomes dependent on the operation of the labour market and the prevailing employment policy. The policy of human resource development for economic and social needs calls for an analysis of the skills needed for the various activities of the economy. The output of the education system, by type of skills taught, has to be known for proper utilization of the human resources it generates. Before the education system can be planned with respect to intake, content and structure, it is only logical that demands for such skills in quantitative terms should be estimated beforehand to whatever extent possible. These estimates of demand, which traditionally have been called manpower demand, but in our conception are broader than than because of the consideration of the qualitative aspects, are susceptible to inaccuracy due to economic uncertainties and the changing nature of the perceptions, attitudes and expectations of the different segments of the society. However, some guidance is needed as to the direction that the development of education in general, and higher education in particular, should take in quantitative terms to cater for the future needs for skills so as to avoid unemployment, underemployment, or shortage of skilled human resources.

It is considered that these estimates, if properly prepared, can provide such guidance. These quantitative estimates of needs for skills can be checked with the actual values to identify the degree of inaccuracy and to form a checklist of missing parameters and variables. They re also useful for setting the foundation of the strategy for the development of the structure and organization of the education system.

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It is assumed that where higher education is concerned the estimates are easier to m a k e , because of the increased degree of correspondence between the skills imparted in the higher education system and the skills needed on the job, than for other levels of education. Having regard to the problems of estimating future needs for highly qualified manpower , an analysis of the matching between the quantity of trained people and the quality of the training content demanded by the economy and responsiveness of the institutions of higher education becomes particularly useful. This analysis of matching brings out the shortcomings of the education system, not only quantitatively but also qualitatively. A careful diagnosis of the education system forms the basis of any future strategy for the higher education system and also provides a yardstick for achievements in restructuring the social system through change in the educational system, and illuminates the problems encountered in achieving the targets of socialization and equality of opportunities in the world of work. These problems m a y be seen in the various education ',paths' of different population groups, which result in the different working opportunities in the labour market.

This relationship is demonstrated in Figure 5.1.

Resource Potential (Human; demographic characteristics, cultural background etc; Natural; Physical)

Economy and the Society (Economic activities and products; Aspects of NIEO; Employment situation; Segmentation of the Society, etc.)

Labour Market

(Work conditions; Recruitment practices; Wage policy; Labour-market information etc.)

Education System (Career information; Coverage; Content; Structure; Input/output flows etc.)

Figure 5.1: Macro aspects

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Lectures

W h a t is more important however are the micro aspects of the relationship. In the analysis of the relationship between education and employment, w e are concerned with individual h u m a n beings and individual enterprises. Their background, attitudes and expectations play an important role in this relationship. W h a t goes on in the labour market is a reflection of the social set-up including the educational system. W e believe that the economy and the society, the h u m a n resource potential of the country and the education system as it is, influence the behaviour, attitudes and expectations of the individuals, their families, their community, and their educational history (see Figure 5.2). These factors again influence directly the expectations of each individual in respect of his or her social role, as does the operation of .the labour market through its selection criteria, recruitment practices, labour market information system, etc. But the occupational expectations are also indirectly influenced by resource potential, economy and the society and the educational system through the individual characteristics (sibling position, family size, parents/guardians1 occupation, education and income), the community characteristics (home region, religion, ethnicity, tribe) and the early educational history (type of school, type of education, academic performance, etc.) (see Figure 5.3).

Riiflource Potential

Labour Market

(1) Individual characteristics (age, sex, marital status etc.,).

(2) Family characteristics (sibling position, family size, family

education, occupation and income).

(3) Community characteristics (home region (urban/rural), ethnicity,

tribe, caste etc.).

(4) Early educational characteristics (type of school; academic

performance; type of education etc.)

Figure 5.2: Macro-micro inter-relation

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Resource Potential Мчсго Aspects

onal expectations (expectec 3 of study, type of institut

etc.) location

ccupational Expectations (expect profession, income, sector of employment etc.).

Early Educational Characteristics

Figure 5.3: Occupational expectations derived from the macro-micro interface

Similarly, motivation in respect of education is generated directly by the motivation in respect of occupation, functioning of the education system, the individual, family, community and early educational characteristics, and indirectly by the resource potential, economy and the society, and the education system through the individual, family, community and early educational characteristics. It is considered that if a society is to be democratized, the education system, the economy and the society have to give emphasis on changing the micro characteristics so as to generate egalitarian occupational and educational expectations which would then lead to egalitarian educational and occupational careers of individuals.

The educational career of the individual is directly influenced by the educational expectations, the education system, the individual, family, community and early educational characteristics, and indirectly by the occupational expectations, the economy and the society, and the resource potential through the micro characteristics (see Figure 5.4). The items of educational career are type of institution attended and its location, field of study pursued, academic performance, change of subject during the course of studies, etc.

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Lectures

Figure 4,

Resource Potential

national career ;ype of institution, location, field of study, academic performance, etc.

Occupational career career information received placement services recruitment methods selection criteria waiting period type of occupation sector of employment type of firm, location salary job satisfaction

Figure 5.4: Occupational career derived from the macro-micro interface

The occupational career is dependent directly upon the educational career, the labour market situation, the occupational expectations, and individual, family, c o m m u nity, early educational and occupational characteristics, and indirectly upon the economy and the society, resource potential and the education system. The items of occupational career are career information received, placement services used, recruitment methods and selection criteria used, waiting period to obtain a job, type of post held, type of firm, location, salary, satisfaction on the job, and utilization of training/education on the job (see Figure 5.4). S o m e of these items are also in the domain of the employers which need to be checked with them to find whether the experience of the graduates matches with the employers' perceptions.

The basic thrust of our approach is that the education system can change the characteristics of the individuals, families and the community, so as to m a k e the transition from institutions of education to work smoother.

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5.3 Data needs

A conceptual framework as described above requires a lot of data and information on the resource potential, economy and social structure, education system, and on the labour market. A list of such data needs is given in Table 5.1 along with the possible sources. The analysis of the individual, family, community, early educational and occupational characteristics, occupational and educational expectations, educational and occupational career actually held by the individual also need considerable data, which are not usually available in published documents. Instruments have to be designed to collect such data. Three types of instruments are designed in the form of questionnaires: one for the students, one for the graduates (separately for employed and unemployed if it is feasible to cover them), and one for the employers. The data needs for the micro aspects of the relationship between education and employment are given in Table 5.2 (for students and graduates) and Table 5.3 (for employers). The data on the employers are needed for comparing the perceptions of the employers with the experiences of the graduates, as well as for identifying the relationship between education and employment as perceived by the employers.1 The drawing up of the necessary questionnaires to collect the data will be discussed later in the course.

5.4 Collection of data

Representative samples are drawn from the student, graduate and employer population based on the random sampling technique; where such a technique fails, purposive sampling to cater for the special needs and scope of the study is adopted.

5.5 Analysis of the data

A list of hypotheses is prepared to verify the conceptual framework described above and to derive policy measures. These are tested by standard statistical analysis, as described in the session on statistical techniques.

5.6 Results

As stated before, results of such research are to be related to the specific socio-economic context of the country. Implications for planning of higher education related to employment have been derived separately for each country studied.

In some case, data have been collected from academic staff to better understand the relationship (e.g. Sri

Lanka).

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Table 5.1: Data needs for macro aspects of the relationship between higher education and employment

Required information/statistics

Resource potential

(a) Human :

(b) Natural and physical

Population characteristics by region, social groups, age group and sex; cultural background: traditions, customs; working population! labour force participation by social groups, age and sex; educational participation by social groups, age and sex; emigration and immigration.

Nature resource reserves: underground, on the surface and underwater; water and land transport; climatic conditions; flora and fauna; physical infrastructure: buildings, equipment and other facilities.

Census, sample surveys, historical and social studies on the country; labour force and educational statistical yearbooks of the country.

Geological, agricultural and economic surveys of government, non-government and international agencies.

Economy and the society The role of the modern and the traditional, sector; the industrial origin of the groQB domestic product; level of saving, .inconie per capita; the characteristics of the new international economic order (NIEO), namely terms of trade, transfer of technology ami division of labour, the role of external operators in the national economy; social stratification; employment situation.

Economic surveys and reports of the country prepared by national and international agencies, sociological studies, studies on political economy, employment reports, etc.

3. Labour market Selection criteria, recruitment and promotion practices, wage policy, labour market, information, etc; the traditional laboufc market; the rural labour force.

Statistics on employment and earnings; reports of recruitment committees, salary commissions; statistics on labour force; census and sample surveys.

Education system Statistics on enrolment by type and level of education (past and present), by sex, region and social groups; statistics on physical facilities, teachers and budget, flow rates by year of study, level and type of education; availability of career information; information on content and Btructure of the education system in school and out of school) coverage of education; internal and external efficiency of the system.

Ministry of Education, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Planning; other reports and national and international level.

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Table 5.2: Data needs for micro aspects of the relationship between higher education and employment: the students and the graduates

Items Statistics/information

1. Individual characteristics

2. Family characteristics

3. Community characteristics

Age, sex, marital status

Sibling position, family eize; education, occupation and income of parents/guardians.

Home region (urban/rural), ethnicity, religion, tribe, educational opportunity in the community, etc.

4. Early educational characteristics

5. Early occupational history

6. Occupational expectations

Type of school, location, type and level of education, academic performance, financing; other training activities.

Whether worked as a student: if yes, nature and earnings ; whether worked breaking studies: if yes, nature and earnings.

Type of occupation expected, type of post| sector of employment, type of firm; expected waiting period; expected salary; motivational factors for working in rural area, expected selection criteria, placement services and recruitment methods.

Sample surveys conducted

with specially designed

questionnaires

7. Educational expectations

8. Educational career

9. Occupational career (1)

Type of specialization desired; type of institution, location, type of performance expected; type of educational career information received.

Career guidance, admission.criteria, reasons for the type of specialization pursued, type of institution attended, location, academic performance, changes if any in field of study during educational career; role of career information; relevance of education received.

Career information, placement services, selection criteria, Recruitment methods, waiting period, type of occupation, education/occupation match, sector of employment, type of firm, location, job satisfaction, motivational factors for work in rural area; геанопв for delay in obtaining a job.

Sample surveys conducted with specially designed questionnaires

(1) For graduates only. The statistics relate to t\\e employed graduates; information on unemployed graduates very useful if a survey can be conducted; only the first and last elements, namely career information and causes for remaining unemployed have to be included.

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Table 5.3: Data needs for micro aspects of the relationship between higher education and employment: the employers' perceptions

Information/statistics

1. Characteristics of employers

Date of establishment, type of control, size, industrial group, nature of producta and services.

2. Employment characteristics

3. Relationship with higher education institutions

Criteria for selection-, method of recruitment, availability of job description mechanism^ number and type of graduates employed, estimates of needs for graduates in the future, salflty structure.

Relevance of higher education programmes for job performance; organizational mechaniBiii for in-service and on-the-job training; mettlnde of co-operation with the institutions of higher education; best methods of organizing educational programmes related to the needs of the world of work.

Sample survey of

employers conducted

with specially designed

questionnaire

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Lecture 6

Education and productive work: some general

considerations

by J Jayshri Jalali

6.1 Introduction

6.1.1 Education-work interface and the need to integrate education with productive work

T h e major problem today both in the developed and the developing worlds is the mismatch between the d e m a n d for and supply of skilled labour. This problem is imbeded in the relationship between education and work since centuries. It leads to unrealistic employment expectations, often underutilization of h u m a n resources, slow d o w n economic growth of countries and check the developing countries from becoming self-sufficient economies.

For countries of Asia and the Pacific based both on agriculture and highly developed industrial economies; and yet having substantial work oriented school curriculum have still failed to meet the required match between d e m a n d for and supply of skilled labour. According to Unesco " W o r k needs to be incorporated at all levels of school education

because it inculcates in the four essential values". These are:

(a) It teaches him/her the dignity of h u m a n labour;

(b) It makes him/her more responsive to social functions/obligations;

(c) It developes in him/her innate talents, creativity and enterprise and helps to bring out a team spirit in his/her o w n ethics;

(d) It helps him/her appreciate the traditional link between m a n and nature contributing to the development of societies based upon democracy.

The stages through which this school programme can be introduced is as given below:

(a) Either integrating work experience/productive work in the educational process; or

(b) Taking education to work situations.

Stage I—Introduction of work education as separate subjects in schools.

Stage II—Introduction of work experience/productive work as optional subjects in the general secondary schools.

Stage III—Introduction of work experience/productive work as compulsory subjects in all general secondary schools.

Stage IV—Introduction of work experience/productive work at senior secondary level

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Lectures

Stage V—Introduction of work experience/productive work as a life long process.1

6.2 Evolution of the concept

Ancient and medieval theories of education based as they would of feudal modes of production adopted a strategy which divorced intellectual training from manual work. T h e feudal system started the process of differentiated training systems such as training for craftsman, military training, and education of princes.2

T h e relationship is less complicated in the developed world because of the evolutionary process through which this relationship grew. T h e factory system changed the nature of jobs and in this education played an important role in pre-induction training for factory workers. T h e emphasis on education also changed from generating knowledge to that inculcating performing skills. It trained workers to adjust to the n e w social environment in the factories. Education also played an important role in bringing together the different social groups living in a n e w urban milieu.3

6.2.1 The European concept

In Western societies, the link between 'instruction' and 'manual work ' dates back to the Renaissance m o v e m e n t . Reformers like T h o m a s M o r e , T . Campanella and others regarded participation in productive work as an essential feature of an 'ideal society'. John Bellers had proposed a 'College of Industry' which should teach children useful sciences, different trades and manual work. Jean Jacques Rousseau preached 'labour instruction'. Pestalozzi had felt that elementary education should combine intellectual training with a knowledge of crafts. Robert O w e n had devoted a lot of his time to manual training.4 T h e philosophies of these thinkers have expressed themselves in favour of 'work experience' as a part of academic curriculum in Western schools.

In English comprehensive schools, housecraft, mothercraft, needlework, nursing and such subjects are taught between the years twelve and sixteen with a view to teach certain basic skills required in the day to day living of the child.

6.2.2 The Soviet concept

T h e Soviet system of polytechnical education incorporated the ideas of M a r x , Lenin and Makarenko , according to which education is directly linked with production. Education is training of citizens to produce a socialist state and has to take into account the productive forces. Makarenko wrote, "Pedagogy is the most dialectical, mobile, complex and diversified of sciences". Participation in community activities was important. Thus the Soviet child has to work for the material production of his society which includes agricul-

1 Unesco, R O E A P , Linking education with work in general schools, Regional Profile, Bangkok.

2 Aldo Visalbergi, on education and division of labour in the developed world; Learning and working, Paris, Unesco, 1979, p.32.

3 Jalali, Jayshree "Secondary Education and work—A Third "World Di lemma" Progressive

Educational/Herald, Number, October 1, Hyderabad, 1987.

4 Unesco, Polytechnical Education in the USSR. Paris, Unesco, 1963, pp 21-22.

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ture, transport, industry, construction, communication and such areas. This 'Socially useful labour' consists of two components, namely:

(a) Productive work in a branch of material production such as is mentioned above, and

(b) Work in non-productive fields such as education, public health, housing and communal services, transport, public administration, co-operative and social organizations, banking and insurance and communication.

The activities either separately or jointly form an essential component of the 'labour lessons' curriculum in the daily school routine.5

6.2.3 The Indian experience

In India agrarian mode of production in ancient and medieval times carried an epistomo-logical belief that "thinking emasculates work and work pollutes thinking".6 Initially the change came out of trade transactions between India, Arab countries and China. The changes in the modes of production also occured due to the arrival of the Portuguese, Dutch, French and the British in India. The changes continued during the colonial period when education was being used as an instrument for discrimination among the Indians—the academic courses being meant for the native intelligentsia which avoided manual work and the non-academic technical courses incorporating manual and practical work for the lower echelon of the Society.

6.3 Nationalist response and government of India's efforts till 1986

During the early colonial period Indian nationalist educators made attempts on 'Linking education with work' at the school level and conducted experiments. However it was Gandhi ("Harijan" —31 July 1937—Nai Talim) who made the most intensive appeal in 1937 that basic education should be the basis of a combination of theory and practical manual work based on the local needs of the environment. It should be productive in nature and the crafts made by school children, would in the long run pay for the maintenance of this system. The Zakir Hussain Committee accepted this as its principle and suggested crafts like spinning, weaving, carpentry, agriculture, food processing, gardening, leather work, and any other work which suits the local and geographical conditions to be integrated in the curriculum. The Kher Committee in 1938 agreed that this Basic Education need to be for the primary stage.

The Mudaliar Commission of 1952-53 while accepting one craft in its core curriculum out of spinning, weaving, wood work, needle work, gardening, tailoring, sewing, embroidery and modelling did envisage steps like agriculture etc. for diversification at the secondary level. The Kothari Commission in 1966 had stated "Whereas Basic Education was concerned primarily with traditional crafts and the village employment patterns".

5 Jayshree Roy, A Comparative Study of Secondary Education in India and in the U S S R with special refer

ence to the Concept of Work Experience. M . E d Dissertation. CIE, University of Delhi, dated 20th M a y .

1981.

6 Moonis Raza, Brahm Prakash, Education and W o r k Amity N e w Delhi, ISCUS, 1986.

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India has now reached a level of scientific and technological development and recommended that work experience should be "oriented to industry" and simple technology should be introduced in fair proportion in rural schools. In such schools, where school workshops cannot be provided suitable tools and materials, these may be manufactured at low cost and made available to the pupils. In the same way, steps should be taken to introduce gardening in as many urban schools as possible to provide experience in farm work to at least to the secondary stage of education of urban pupils.

Work experience has now become known as 'Socially useful productive work' in the higher secondary curriculum. The lshwari Bhai Patel Committee, the Adishesiah Committee in the late seventies also recommended work experience to be incorporated in the school curriculum.

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Lecture 7

Education and productive work: examples of concrete cases

in India

by К . Sudha Rao

7.1 Objectives of Socially Useful Productive W o r k ( S U P W )

T h e rationale for introducing work education in general education at the school level has already been elaborated in the previous session. T h e following paragraphs would highlight the findings of a national level study conducted by N I E P A to analyze the present status of this programme in India and also a case study of "Earn while you learn" scheme in M a d h y a Pradesh as an example of p rogramme implementation in India. For the purpose of this analysis the performance has been compared with the stated objectives of the p rogramme. T h e stated objectives of the S U P W p rogramme are:

• to prepare for practising and performing manual work;

• to acquaint with world of work, and to develop respect for manual work;

• to inculcate positive attitude, team work and socially desirable values such as self reliance, dignity of labour, tolerance, co-operation, sympathy and helpfulness;

e to help in understanding the principles involved in various forms of work;

• to lead to participate in productive work; 'Earn while you learn' scheme;

• to lead to the development of vocational preparedness.

At the primary level the p rogramme was thought to be introduced in the form of hand work, at the middle level in the form of projects, at the secondary level—work experience and at the senior secondary level it is implemented in the form of projects and participation in services which would contribute to the development of desirable social qualities in the child. T h e criterion set for selecting the objectives are:

(a) it should be educative

(b) it should be productive

(c) it should be socially useful

T h e work education programmes centres around six areas of h u m a n needs, namely, food, health and hygiene, clothing, shelter, culture and recreation and social service. Although the activities will differ from school to school, depending upon its needs and resources, the p rogramme of essential activities is compulsory for all children and the programme of productive work and services under work practice would result in production of goods or services which are saleable or consumeable at h o m e or in the school or

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Lectures

outside. Decentralized planning for the work education programme has been considered to be the best strategy. Teaching-learning process has been divided into three phases; study of the work through observation and inquiry; experimentation with materials, tools and techniques and work practice. The first two are concerned with preparation for actual participation in productive work and service, and the third leading to production.

Before analyzing the case study of Earn while you learn scheme in Madhya Pradesh, let us briefly look at the present status of S U P W / L E in India.

7.2 State of the art

Socially useful productive work/work experience programme has been introduced in all the schools at primary, middle, secondary and high secondary levels in India. It has been given the status of full fledged/compulsory subject at the school level. In some States, it is an examination subject (e.g. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Mizoram, etc.) whereas in others only internal evaluation is conducted for this subject. The school curriculum outlines the suggested programme of activities to be performed by the students in primary, middle and secondary schools. Instruction of S U P W is imparted by the specialized teachers, it is only during their absence a stop gap arrangement is made by assigning it to the subject teachers. The various agencies that are involved in training these teachers are: National Council for Educational Research and Training (NCERT) , and their counterparts in the States (SCERT), Directorates of Education etc. In addition, wherever the education department has been able to establish proper linkages with the production centres and other agencies, the training programmes are also organized by these agencies. B.Ed, and M . E d , courses have been revised to incorporate training related to work education in their curriculum. W e have one week intensive courses organized by N C E R T , where in the craft performance is emphasizeed.

Financing of S U P W is done by the States. The States do get funds from private sources. Other inputs like raw material and expertise are given by the students, parents and other production centres. Majority of the states provide Rs.200 to Rs.500 per annum as contingency for purchasing raw materials. J a m m u & Kashmir provides Rs.500—Rs.1000 per annum. Karnataka provide Rs.4000 per annum, per school for appointment of part-time teachers, purchase of equipments, raw material, conveyance, etc.

Developing linkages with other agencies, other than education, is an individual phenomena. Except in Madhya Pradesh, it is the individual institutions that are establishing relationships with neighbouring agencies for its effective implementation. It is only in Madhya Pradesh at the headquarters level itself the State has established linkages with other sector.

Produced goods are generally distributed amongst the students, parents and teachers depending upon who provides the raw materials. Wherever the large scale productions are there, they are sold in the annual fares or exhibitions of the school. But in such cases invariably school provides the raw material. In Madhya Pradesh and Kerala where large scale goods are produced are purchased by the education department itself. In the majority of the schools the products are only handicraft articles. Wherever agriculture products are there it is used in the annual feasts by the school itself.

Coming to the attitudinal that part of it, it appears that the established dichotomy of the superiority of mental work over the manual work is persisting; parents feel that school is meant for white collar academic activity and not a place for doing manual work. Hence

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they consider it as waste of time. Though they feel that is is good for children's attitudes, the type of activities introduced are found to be of no use. Teachers are of the opinion that the activity is good but w h e n it comes to practice, they prefer to be academic teachers. Principals are not very happy with the p rog ramme because its serious implementation means additional responsibility and inefficient implementation would bring bad reputation.

It is obvious from the responses that wherever the leadership is good the p rog ramme is successful. Invariably in all the schools run by voluntary agencies, and other missionaries the p r o g r a m m e is highly successful.

States are facing a n u m b e r of problems in introducing the S U P W / w o r k education p rog ramme. S o m e of them are:

• Lack of awareness of the parents, teachers, students and community about the objectives of the p rog ramme

• Financial input is too meager to introduce any large scale activity leading to production

• Lack of availability of trained teachers

e M a n a g e m e n t difficulties

• Lack of instructional material, teacher guides, training guides etc.

In general, as it stands today, the p r o g r a m m e has not been able to contribute to either self employment of students or to the rural development. This does not m e a n that there are no cases of successful implementation. Rajasthan has implemented activities that are of daily use to the students. A s a result student response is very high. Similar is the case in Maharashtra and Kerala. A detailed case study of one such state which has introduced the p rog ramme in a successful manner is given in the following paragraphs.

7.3 ' E a r n while you learn scheme' : A case study of M a d h y a Pradesh

'Earn while your learn' scheme was introduced at six centres in 1978 on an experimental basis in M a d h y a Pradesh. Success achieved in these centres encouraged the planners and administrators to ramify the p rogramme to as m a n y as 413 centres in the State. T h e major objectives set for the scheme are as under:

(a) Rejuvenating craft teaching

(b) Developing productive skill

(c) Utilization of leisure in productive work

(d) Developing dignity towards labour

(e) Helping retention in schools.

T h e state took precautionary measures to overcome those problems that posed hindrances to the success of the work education p r o g r a m m e in India. T h e S U P W / w o r k

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experience programme did not achieve success (except in few institutions here and there) because of three major problems (a) lack of supply of raw material to the Institution; (b) lack of trained teachers; and (c) lack of motivation.

T o overcome these the State established linkages with small scale industries, Khadi and village industries, Handicrafts Board, etc. which would supply raw materials to the educational institutions. The products from the institutions are purchased by the education department itself. It is with those in view, the activities introduced in the institutions are: making of tatpattis (jute mats), chalks, sealing wax, uniforms and dolls. T h e motivation of teachers, students and institutional heads was restored by making provision for remuneration to all these. The third problem was overcome by arranging a massive teachers' training programme during s u m m e r vacations.

A brief look, therefore, at the school product which reflect this production capability of schools and its distribution over the years, on the one hand, and at the participation of students in different activities, on the other hand, suggests that what was considered not to be possible, till n o w , is not something that is impossible. The number of students involved in the programme and the list of parents are show in Tables 7.1 and 7.2.

Table 7.1: Showing the number of students' participation in the production of tatpatti and chalk sticks and uniforms at the State level

Year

1978-79

1979-80

1980-81

1981-82

1982-83

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86

Total

Tatpatti

924

1 358

1 696

3 045

3 600

2 252

1 732

n.a

14 607

Chalk sticks

100

148

300

304

98

n.a

n.a

n.a

950

School uniforms

-

-

-

-

-

400

4 134

n.a

4 534

Total

1 024

1 56

1 996

3 349

3 698

2 652

5 866

n.a

20 091

The participation number and the number of goods produced by students in school hours reveals that student participation continuously increased from 1978-79 (924) to 1982-83 (3,600) in the activity of making of tatpattis but then started decreasing. Where as in the uniform making it is increasing. Similarly the products are also affected. In 1978-79 the number of tatpattis produced were 23,100 and it is 87,547 in 1982-83. But again the drop could be noticed in 1983-84 (52,857) and 1984-85 (6,670). Production of school uniforms and the number participating is continuously increasing since its introduction in 1983-84.

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Table 7.2: Production of tatpattis, chalks and school uniforms at the State level

Year

1978-79

1979-80

1980-81

1981-82

1982-83

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86

Total

N o . of tatpattis

23 100

24 200

41 482

72 447

87 547

52 857

6 670

-

308 303

Cost in lakhs

(Rs.)

7.97

11.80

14.81

24.99

28.66

18.50

5.00

-

11.73

N o . of chalks

25 000

37 000

75 200

75 300

12 403

-

-

-

224 938

Cost in lakhs

(Rs.O

0.38

0.55

1.13

1.13

0.25

-

-

-

3.4

N o . of uniforms(a)

4 000

506 000

1 000 000

1 510 000

Cost in lakhs

(Rs.)

1.40

114.00

215.00

330.40

Note: Rs.l lakh = Rs. 100,000.

(a) Started in 1983.

Source: U N Shahane 'Earn while you learn' scheme in Madhya Pradesh.

A survey conducted in Gwalior district also revealed similar findings as far as the products and the participation are concerned.

Responses of the non participating students revealed that the reasons for their non-participation are: (a) their parents did not permit them; (b) though willing, they were not given the opportunity to work; (c) they did not like manual labour; (d) they considered the activity as a hindrance in regular studies; (e) the items being produced are not of their choice and (f) the remuneration is too low.

Results in the annual examination revealed that amongst the participating students 11 per cent scored 60 per cent and above, 50 per cent scored 45-59 per cent and the rest scored 33 per cent to 44 per cent.

Except for the difficulties faced in the way of operationalization of the programme in general, the programme is found to be successful in achieving the stated objectives. As regards the objective of rejuvenating the craft teaching the scheme has undeniably succeeded. The scheme has actually reanimated the craft teaching which had almost lost its meaning. In the area of development of productive skill, the success of the scheme is

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indicated by the quality of products, lack of wastage of goods and the remarkable reduction in the time taken to produce these items. Leisure time utilization is another success of this scheme. And finally the scheme is also successful in reducing the dropouts and increasing the attendance rates.

Only objective to which the study is not able to depict positive responses is the developing dignity towards labour.

7.4 Concluding remarks

Above paragraphs are indicative of merits and demerits of the programme and also the reasons for its success and failure. If we are to achieve only success then we need to rectify the demerits and overcome those problems that are causal to failure.

7.5 References

"The Third Dimension of Education" C.B.S.E. N e w Delhi.

"Work Experience in School Education" N . C . E . R . T . , N e w Delhi, 1986.

Shahane V . S . " A n Evaluative study of the Earn while you Learn Scheme of Madhya Pradesh" Dissertation submitted to NIEPA, N e w Delhi 1986.

"Earn while you learn" (mimeo) circulated by Directorate of Public Instruction M . P . Bhapal, 1986.

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Lecture 8

Vocationalization of secondary education

by Maureen Woodhall

8.1 Introduction

For more than a hundred years there have been proposals to reform the education system in many countries by giving greater emphasis to technical and practical skills, rather than theoretical instruction, and there have been repeated attempts to "vocationalize" the curricula of academic schools, in the belief that this would prepare pupils better for employment. In nineteenth century British politicians advocated setting up technical schools, on the German model, on the grounds that this was the best way to prepare children for work in the rapidly expanding industrial sector. Yet a hundred years later British schools are still criticized for failing to prepare pupils for the world of work and recent initiatives such as the Technical and Vocational Education Initiative (TVEI) and the Certificate of Pre-Vocational Education (CPVE) have been introduced in an attempt to reduce the so-called "mismatch" between education and employment by increasing vocational and pre-vocational preparation at the secondary level. But this is still highly controversial in Britain, and a number of critics have attacked the whole notion of "voca-tionalizing" secondary education.

In Africa there have been repeated attempts to increase the provision of agricultural and technical education, which have also been attacked by critics. In 1965 Philip Foster examined the history of secondary education in Ghana in the nineteenth and twentieth century and showed that proposals to shift the emphasis of education from general, academic studies towards practical training in technical and agricultural skills had been a feature of every official report on education in the Gold Coast from 1847 to the granting of independence to Ghana in 1957. Nevertheless, he claimed that none of these proposals had been successfully implemented and he attacked the whole notion that imposing a technical or agricultural bias in African schools would solve the problem of unemployment as a fallacy, which he described as "The Vocational School Fallacy" (Foster 1965).

In India, also, there have been recommendations for more than a hundred years to "diversity" the school curriculum by introducing vocational education at the secondary stage. The 1985 Report of the National Working Group on "Vocationalization of Education" quoted Wood 's Despatch of 1854, the Indian Education Commission of 1882 and successive Secondary Education Commissions, all of which had called for increased emphasis on vocational education, the creation of "diversified" or "multi-purpose" schools, which could provide technical and vocational, as well as general, academic education.

Elsewhere in the world the same pressures have been widespread and a review of World Bank lending in the past twenty years has shown that half of all education projects have included a component which aimed to "diversity" or "vocationalize" the secondary school curriculum. Yet the recent World Bank study designed to evaluate these projects (the Diversified Secondary Education Curricula or DiSCuS Study) was highly critical, and questioned the underlying rationale for vocationalizing secondary education, questioned the benefits, and concluded:

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"Paradoxically, it seems that the lower the overall level of a country's development, the weaker the case for introducing a diversified curriculum. T h e more developed the country, the m o r e it m a y be able to afford diversification. This policy conclusion is exactly the opposite of what actually happens: the poorer the country, the greater the présure for making the secondary school curriculum 'more relevant to the world of w o r k ' " (Psacharopoulos and Loxley, 1985, p . 228)

This lecture will try to examine w h y the whole concept of vocationalizing secondary education is so controversial, and will summarize:

• the arguments put forward for a greater vocational bias in secondary schools

• the arguments of the critics, including both Foster's "vocational school fallacy" argument and m o r e recent critics

e s o m e of the evidence about the effects of previous attempts to vocationalize or diversity the secondary school curriculum, including the World Bank's D i S C u S study.

Finally, w e will link the continuing debate about vocationalizing secondary schools to the alternative theories of the labour market, examined in M o d u l e 3, and consider some of the implications for implementing educational reforms designed to improve the links between education and employment.

8.2 T h e rationale for vocationalizing secondary education

The arguments put forward for "vocationalization" or "diversification" of secondary schools can be summarized under four heads:

8.2.1 Employment objectives

Diversified secondary schools, which provide vocational education (including technical, commercial, and agricultural streams) as well as general, academic education, will improve pupils' chances of finding jobs, by giving them useful, practical skills, and encouraging positive attitudes towards practical work. Vocational education will therefore increase the supply of technically trained m a n p o w e r and reduce unemployment caused by unreal expectations.

8.2.2 Economic efficiency objectives

By improving the links between education and employment, diversified secondary schools will offer a higher rate of return than academic schools and will reduce the "excess d e m a n d " for higher education which is caused by academic schools over-emphasizing qualifications that simply prepare pupils for entry to post-secondary education.

8.2.3 Quality objectives

By making education m o r e relevant to the world of work vocationalization will improve pupils' motivation, increase their knowledge and lead to gains in cognitive and non-cognitive skills.

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8.2.4 Equity objectives

Diversified secondary schools will improve opportunities for pupils from poor families, w h o are often denied access to academic schools, and therefore vocationalization will lead to a more equitable distribution of resources.

M o r e specifically, the World Bank's D i S C u S study attempted to test the following nine hypotheses:

• Diversification favour the recruitment of students from lower-income families and thus provides more equitable access to schooling.

» Diversification enhances cognitive achievement in the field of vocational course work and later on the job.

• Diversification creates a desire for further training and instills occupational aspirations better suited to national economic needs.

• Diversification diminishes the private demand for post-secondary education, especially at the university level.

9 Diversification increases the motivation to seek work at the end of secondary schooling.

e Diversification leads to employment in the field of vocational specialization at school.

• Diversification enables graduates to earn more than they would after other forms of schooling.

e Graduates of diversified schools have a shorter period of unemployment while seeking work after graduation than do graduates of other secondary schools.

• Investment in diversification has a higher social rate of return than in either vocational or academic education along.

8.3 Arguments against vocationalization

Critics of vocationalization argue that it is expecting too m u c h of the education system to suggest that curriculum reforms, by themselves, can reduce unemployment, and they also argue that attempts to vocationalize schools have proved expensive, inefficient and have failed to achieve most of their objectives. Like the arguments in favour of vocationalization, the arguments of critics fall under four heads.

8.3.1 Employment

Vocational schools do not necessarily increase the likelihood that school-leavers will find a job, since employers m a y prefer to train workers on the job, or m a y regard school leavers from vocational streams as "inferior" to pupils with academic schooling. Moreover, if vocational streams in diversified secondary schools prepare for a narrow range of jobs, then school-leavers will emerge with less flexibility, so that in a rapidly changing labour market job-specific vocational education m a y actually reduce, rather than increase chances of finding work.

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8.3.2 Cost and economic efficiency

Because vocational education requires specialized equipment and tools, it is m u c h m o r e expensive than general education, and on cost-benefit grounds it is often cheaper and m o r e effective to provide vocational education and training on-the-job, rather than in secondary schools.

8.3.3 Quality

Because of the difficulty of recruiting teachers with technical skills the quality of vocational education is often poor and pupils m a y leave school without adequate general or vocational skills.

8.3.4 Equity

In m a n y countries vocational streams in secondary schools are regarded as leading to "dead-end", rather than high-status jobs. T h e result is that pupils from high socioeconomic backgrounds tend to choose academic streams, which are m o r e likely to lead to university or other post-secondary education, while pupils from poor families are concentrated in low-status "technical" or "vocational" streams.

8.4 Evidence on the effects of vocationalization of secondary education

M a n y evaluations of attempts to introduce or increase vocationalization or diversification of secondary schools have pointed to problems of implementation and have suggested that m a n y of the supposed benefits of vocationalization have not been forthcoming.

A review of 79 World Bank projects between 1963 and 1978 (Haddad 1979) concluded:

(a) m a n y projects were successful in meeting quantitative m a n p o w e r targets

(b) there was no evidence of changes in pupils' attitudes towards practical or manual work, and in the majority of projects pupils still preferred academic fields to vocational training

(c) with very few exceptions the general quality of education did not appear to improve, and attempts to broaden the curriculum were hindered by implementation problems

(d) there were serious doubts about the cost-effectiveness of diversification projects.

In the light of these rather pessimistic conclusions, the World Bank carried out a more detailed evaluation of secondary school diversification in Colombia and Tanzania (Psacharopoulos and Loxley 1985). O n the basis of detailed comparisons of different types of school, including comparisons of costs and pupil achievement (as measured by special tests) in academic and vocational streams, and by tracer studies which examined the subsequent employment and earnings of school leavers, the study attempted to evaluate diversification of secondary education in terms of:

• access to schooling of different socio-economic groups

• cognitive achievement in both academic and vocational subjects

99


• differences in pupils' ambitions, motivations, attitudes and aspirations regarding occupational choice and further education

• post-school experiences in further education and employment

• cost-effectiveness of different types of school or "streams" within schools.

O n c e again, the results were very pessimistic about the results of diversification in Colombia and Tanzania. In particular:

(a) Curriculum diversification is expensive and its cost-effectiveness very questionable. In some cases improvements in vocational skills were achieved at the expense of general skills; in other cases there was an unambiguous increase in pupil achievement , but at high cost.

(b) Vocational education in diversified schools did not increase either the chances of employment or the earnings of school leavers.

(c) T h e rate of return to vocational streams is often lower than to academic streams.

(d) Vocational education did not reduce the private demand for higher education, and those w h o had taken specific vocational courses (such as agriculture or technical subjects) were just as likely to change subject fields s those w h o had followed academic courses.

Such results have been widely interpreted as undermining the case for vocationaliza-tion or diversification of secondary schools. O n the other hand, critics have argued that it is too soon to evaluate the effects of the experiments, and that a tracer study which follows school leavers for only one or two years is too short.

8.5 Links between the vocationalization debate and alternative theories of the labour market

M u c h of the controversy about vocationalization is linked with the alternative theories of the labour market, discussed in Module 3. Those w h o advocate detailed forecasts of manpower requirements are likely to support training in specific vocational skills in secondary schools. O n the other hand, those w h o believe in a flexible, competitive labour market, in which wages and salaries change in response to changes in demand and supply, and there is a high degree of substitutability between labour and capital, and between different categories of labour, are more likely to favour general education, which prepares school leavers for a wide range of jobs. So, for example Blaug (1985) argues that "The old battle cry for vocational job-specific education, which at first glance might seem to be the rallying ground of economists, is actually the very opposite of what is implied by the ' n e w ' economics of education".

If education is no more than a screening device, then the content of vocational courses is of little significance, and cheaper academic courses are to be preferred to more costly technical subjects, which require specialized equipment and staff. O n the other hand, this theory would suggest that employers will be very interested in the effects of different types of education on motivation and attitudes, even if they prefer to give on the job training in specific skills (Blaug 1973). In fact a recent survey of employers in the United Kingdom showed that "academic achievement" and "personal qualities" are far

100

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more important for m a n y employers than other criteria, and that "general skills" are more important than "specific skills" (Table 8.1).

Table 8.1: Employers' selection criteria: United Kingdom Survey

Level

Graduate and above

H N D etc.

School leaver at 18 +

School leaver + 16

Y T S Trainee

Weighted C o l u m n Totals

Selected Criteria

skills

8* A

В

С

D

E

Specific skills

423 (0%)

8 (10%)

64 (3%)

116 (6%)

8 (0%)

204

General achievement

830 (24%)

384 (26%)

402 (21%)

238 (12%)

153 (11%)

1 600

Academic potential

67 (48%)

691 (46%)

575 (30%)

358 (18%)

309 (22%)

2 763

Personal appearance

50 (4%)

35 (2%)

327 (17%)

313 (15%)

62 (4%)

804

Personal qualities

349 (3%)

103 (7%)

134 (7%)

249 (12%)

268 (19%)

804

Personal

(20%)

276 (18%)

420 (22%)

749 (37%)

582 (42%)

2 376

Note: ^criterion weighted by number of recruits to which it applies. The percentage in brackets shows the relative importance of each criterion at a given level.

Source: J. Wellington et.al. Skills for the FutureThe University of Sheffield 1987, p. 69.

If labour markets are highly segmented, then one way in which this segmentation occurs, according to radical theorists, is the segmentation of schooling, with children of high socio-economic backgrounds choosing academic education, leading to high status jobs, and children of poor, unskilled parents choosing low status "vocational" streams which actually limit, rather than widen occupational choice. However, the hypothesis that diversified secondary schools will increase equality of opportunity for different social groups is not supported by the evidence in m a n y countries.

8.6 Conclusion

Despite all the criticisms of previous attempts to vocationalize secondary education, the world wide pressure for improved links between education and employment continues. Both theoretical work on the labour market and empirical research on diversified schools support the argument that vocational education at the secondary level should be as broad-based as possible, and should aim to increase flexibility and to prepare pupils for a wide range of jobs or for self employment, rather than being too job-specific. In other words,

101


the concept of "vocationalizing education" should not be rejected, but should be reassessed in the light of information about how labour markets actually operate in different countries or regions, including how employers choose workers and whether they prefer general or specific skills, and also in the light of information about the relative costs and effectiveness of different types of secondary education.

8.7 References

Blaug, M . (1973) Education and the Employment Problem in Developing Countries, Geneva: ILO.

—(1985) "Where are we now in the Economics of Education?", Economics of Education Review, Vol.4 (1).

Foster, P.J. (1965) "The Vocational School Fallacy in Development Planning" in C . A . Anderson and M . J . Bowman (eds.) Education and Economic Development, Chicago: Aldine.

Haddad, W . (1979) "Diversified Secondary Curriculum Study: A Review of World Bank Experience", Washington D . C . : World Bank, Education Department.

Psacharopoulos, G . and Loxley, W . (1985) Diversified Secondary Education and Development: Evidence from Colombia and Tanzania., Baltimore: Johns Hopkins, for the World Bank.

102

Lecture 9

Diversification of post-secondary education in relation to

employment: the international context]

by Bikas C . Sanyal

9.1 Objectives of the analysis

It has been mentioned before that the post-secondary education system is often very diversified with m a n y sub-levels and a large range of institutions. This diversity yields different types of qualified m a n p o w e r . T h e objective of the present session is:

(a) to acquaint the participants with the rationale for diversity and the different forms which such diversification m a y take in programmes of post-secondary education in general;

(b) to examine the diversity of the higher education system in the international context, and;

(c) to analyze its consequences on the education-employment relationship.

9.2 T h e rationale for diversification and the forms it m a y take

While formal institutions play the dominant role in higher education in general, they are by no means the only places where individuals m a y pursue explicit training objectives. A whole range of other educational programmes playing a great variety of roles have developed outside the formal system, which are the result of the growing awareness that the formal institutions of higher education are no longer capable of satisfying the whole range of increasingly diversified educational needs. These needs are the direct outcome of both the rapid pace of economic, technological and social change in contemporary society and a gradual broadening of developmental objectives. M o r e specifically, diversification has taken place for the following reasons:2

(a) Educational objectives have become m o r e diversified. (While educational objectives in the past were mainly cultural and a desire for knowledge for its o w n sake, today education must in addition satisfy the m a n p o w e r needs of the economy, and be m a d e available to all segments of society to achieve the objective of democratization. Education has to provide the means to gain a livelihood to all citizens).

This presentation will be supplemented by another with examples from India.

See Unesco/IIEP Educational Pla?ining in the context of current development problems, Vol. I, Paris, 1983 pp.

38-40.

103


(b) Diversity of ' n e w ' client groups has also caused diversification. (One m a y mention here adult learners, disadvantaged and handicapped persons, unemployed youth, employees w h o need post-experience and refresher courses, and out of school youth).

(c) Widening of the process of resource mobilization, allocation and utilization has resulted in the diversification of higher education. (Resource mobilization n o w covers government sources (at different levels, e.g. national, provincial and local), private foundations, enterprises, students o w n funding, voluntary agencies and international organizations. Different sources have different types of allocation mechanisms and m o d e s of utilization of resources).

(d) N e w modes of programme delivery and management have emerged to meet specific educational objectives, thus contributing to diversification. (These include open universities, workers' colleges, sandwich courses, television and radio universities, etc.).

(e) Underlying institutional diversification (to respond to local and regional needs, the needs of enterprises, etc.) has also been responsible for diversity in higher education. (This has taken the form of providing specific services to the community or interested groups. Co-operative programmes between institutions of higher education and industries also fall in this category).

These different reasons have given rise to different types of diversification, of which there are five major forms in higher education:

(a) Structure, e.g. part time/full time, single/full course, open admission, etc.

(b) Content: balance between theory and practice, more work experience, skill formation, orientation, new types of disciplines.

(c) Organizational methods: open university, university-industry co-operation, etc.

(d) Controlling authority: state, private, government sponsored, regional, local, etc., and

(e) Duration of studies.

There m a y be various other forms depending on the country.

9.3 E x a m p l e s of diversification in the international context:

In this respect the industrial sectors of the economy have played a significant role, especially in higher education. This is m o r e c o m m o n in industrialized countries because of the availability of training infrastructures, the incapability of formal institutions to provide the necessary skills in a short period of time, the need for job specific training and to relate training m o r e closely to the needs of the job. S o m e examples of the different forms prevalent in different countries are given below:3

Sanyal B . C . 'Alternative Structures of Higher Education and the World of W o r k ' . International Review of

Education, Vol.XXVIII, 1982.

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Lectures

The increasing need for workers to participate in management, the growing tendency of companies to meet their employment needs by upgrading the work force within the company rather than depending on the external labour market, and the specific types of skills needed by different industries have been the motivating factors for the organization of adult education in the Federal Republic of Germany; as a result, about 40 per cent of all the firms employing 50 employees or more had provision for such education as early as 1974. Training could take place, depending on the purpose, either 'on the job' in the firm or 'off the job' with paid educational leave.

The chronically high level of unemployment in Sweden has encouraged the development of recurrent education among youth there, in addition to the stimulus provided by experiments in 'industrial democracy' for increasing workers' participation in decisionmaking on the conditions of work. Swedish universities have formally recognized work experience as a criterion for admission, in place of upper secondary school certificate, for those aged twenty-five and above. A joint project between the University of Lund and a regional trades union has formalized an education-employment linkage whereby course content and teaching are adopted to trade union needs and the union supports research relevant to its interests.

In the United Kingdom, recurrent education has developed against a background of skill obsolescence, lagging productivity, high unemployment among youth, shifts in occupational distribution and changing labour/management relations. The Employment and Training Act of 1973 gave rise to courses making education more responsive to the world of work. In the mid-seventies, around two-thirds of the total labour force was covered by the Industrial Training Boards, responsible for this training. In addition to the ITB's, there was also a programme of Training Within Industries (TWI), offering short courses under the direct responsibility of the Government. Medium and long-term 'off the job' recurrent education was provided in the Training Opportunities Scheme (TOPS). These programmes became so popular that between 1973-1976, the number of courses nearly doubled. Flexible hours, compressed work courses and part-time employment enable the workers to undertake such training more easily.

More recently in the United Kingdom there has been a considerable increase in programmes, financed by the Manpower Services Commission (MSC), which provides vocational education and training linked with work experience, both for unemployed school leavers and older unemployed.

For school-leavers, the Youth Training Scheme (YTS), now provides a guarantee of two years' vocational training and organized work experience for all 16-18 year olds who cannot find employment.

For older workers there are a variety of government programmes offering opportunities for retraining, such as the M S C ' s Job Training Scheme (JTS) and the updating of skills, such as the Department of Education and Science P ICKUP programme, which offers "professional, industrial and commercial; updating". The most recent innovation is the Open College, launched in 1987, which offers work related courses on television, and gives employers the opportunity to sponsor programmes which are tailor-made for their own training requirements. The Open College hopes to attract 50,000 students in its first year.4

I a m grateful to M s . M . Woodhall of the University of London, Institute of Education for updating m y

information on the subject in the United Kingdom.

105


Other developments in the United Kingdom include programmes to update industrial managers and researchers in modern techniques, e.g. a programme entitled 'Integrated graduate development programme', initiated in 1980 with initial financing from the Department of Education and Science, with courses jointly designed and managed by industrialists and academics and run on a repeated modular/residential basis, located at six university or polytechnic centres around the Kingdom. The flexibility of the course allows highly senior officials to attend it. The emphasis is laid on empirical practicality and to specific industrial needs. Several major companies work together in supporting a particular course. The local joint management committee consists of members from industry, academic and research councils, which provides a bridge between industry and academic. Financing of the programme is gradually being shifted to industry. The programme has benefitted several hundred managers, with post graduate qualifications, and the industry with quickly trained manpower.

Another example in the same country is the Austin Rover course for Directors held at Warwick University with a duration of 18 months. The course, financed partly by the M S C Commission addresses a wide range of issues related to high technology and their implication for manufacture, production and design of products and strategic planning. Organization of the course follows the same pattern as above emphasizing the benefit of industry, academic co-operation5

In the United States, in 1975, 7.500 of the largest private employers spent over US$2 billion on employee education; of this total, internal company courses accounted for US$1.6 billion, excluding the cost of employees' wages and salaries while they were learning, and the rent and other overhead expenses. In all, 45,000 people were engaged on a full-time basis, as instructors, programme developers, administrators and evaluators. The type and scope of the training today varies from industry to industry, but the core of the programmes is active student involvement through simulation exercises and end-of-course critical evaluation, individually-oriented course content, duration and instructional method, the increased use of programmed materials, advanced instructional technologies and the appreciation of the student's sensibilities, behaviour and attitude. The Fund for the Improvement of Post- Secondary Education, a Federal Government fund, has been established to relate education to work with the objective of providing more avenues for routing out-of-school adults back into education and through education to work. The Fund works in co-operation with voluntary agencies, educational associations and institutions for higher education.

In Eastern European and many developing countries, there are similar programmes for the training of the work force. In some of them, investment in such training will exceed investment in formal education.

Discussions on diversity of higher education would remain incomplete if we did not include two innovations that are being implemented in the United Kingdom and in the United States, respectively, the 'Open University' and 'Co-operative Education'. The Open University was established in 1969 with the primary objective of giving to those who would not otherwise have access to it, the opportunity to pursue higher education. Provision was made for 'open entry' admission of mature students (21 years and upwards) as part-time, non-residential students who would work at home in their spare time. The instruction can lead to a degree (BA Ordinary or Masters), but other, non-degree programmes are also available. 'Foundation courses' are provided to most students, but

5 Reiff, Hans: Training qualified manpower: the joint role of higher education and enterprises, H E P , Paris,

June 1986.

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Lectures

those w h o have the regular qualifications for following a particular p rogramme are exempt. Instruction takes different forms. A variety of correspondence units and television and radio broadcasts provide students with information and guidance in a standard package. T h e packages are prepared by a course team composed of regional and central academic staff, the B B C , and educational technologists. In addition to working at h o m e , students can attend, on a voluntary basis, 'study centres' located throughout the country, usually in other educational institutions. These centres are the focal points for the undergraduate students' meeting with their tutor/counsellors, w h o take the role of a general educational adviser at the local level throughout the student's educational course. Tutor-marked assignments by correspondence are the major means of improving upon the students' work. Computer-marked assignments complement these. Degrees are awarded to students w h o have achieved a given number of credits in the programme. In addition to continuous assessment through assignments, every course has a final examination for the degree. Since the O p e n University was established, such distance learning systems are spreading over m a n y countries in the developing world centred around the correspondence courses already in existence. This n e w avenue is providing m a n y individuals with a chance to upgrade their social roles as well as to pursue higher education for its o w n sake.

T h e American programme, 'Co-operative Education', is an academic strategy that integrates on-campus classroom study with off-campus work experience. Although the term is more c o m m o n in the United States, such programmes are prevalent in m a n y other countries. Students in co-operative education alternate between periods of study in their colleges and universities and periods of employment in business, government and nonprofit-making organizations. Employmen t areas are directly related to academic areas. Depending on the situation, such work experience is given due academic credit and m a y be remunerated (e.g., U S A , United K i n g d o m ) or honorary (Federal Republic of G e r m a n y ) . T h e main characteristic of these programmes is that they are organized from and within the education system as an attempt to develop a closer relationship between the education system and the world of work.

9.4 Consequences on education-employment relationships

Diversification of education has its advantages and disadvantages w h e n one analyses the relationship between education and employment. W e shall discuss both.

9.4.1 Benefits:

T h e following is a partial list of benefits that can be derived from diversification of post-secondary education:

(a) Diversification provides job-specific skills and education can be m o r e relevant to the needs of the job.

(b) Latest development in science and technology can be interpreted in the flexible structure of a diversified system.

(c) Flexibility in some programmes allows for quick updating of highly senior officials's knowledge base in the context of fast technological change.

(d) Diversification obliges the formal system of education compete with new types of delivery systems and m a k e it more responsive to the needs of the world of work.

107


(e) Industry organized training programmes seldom would produce unemployable graduates because of their very nature.

(f) Diversification allows better m a t c h b e t w e e n education a n d e m p l o y m e n t through continuous updating of educational programmes with employment needs as discussed in some of the programmes mentioned above.

9.4.2 Some problems of diversity:

W h i l e diversification of the education system has a lot of advantages, as indicated a b o v e , it also has certain disadvantages. T h e s e are:

(a) Problem of co-ordination. A large network of delivery systems needs proper mon i toring and co-ordination to safeguard quality, achieve economies of scale and increase mobilization in case of structural changes in m a n p o w e r needs.

(b) Training carried out by enterprises or by the sectoral ministries tends to be excessively narrow and job specific. Mobility a m o n g workers is restricted.

(c) Diversity creates the problem of converting educational output to occupational needs.

However , the advantages of such diversity appear to outweigh the disadvantages which can be overcome by a proper monitoring mechanism.

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Lecture 10

Diversification of post-secondary education in relation to

employment with special reference to India

by G . D . S h a r m a

10.1 A n overview

In this paper w e deal with diversification in post-secondary education in India through:

1. Courses of studies: formal system

(a) Introduction of n e w courses of studies and specialization, in general, professional universities

(b) Restructuring of undergraduate courses; and

(c) Diversification in professional education.

2. M o d e s of delivery: formal system

(a) Correspondence courses

(b) O p e n university system.

3. Institutions for training of skilled m a n p o w e r : non-formal system

In the end w e attempt to conceptualize the problem and indicate the planning imperatives for the country. Process of diversification of post secondary education in India in the formal system of education started in the 1950s. It was in response to the felt needs of planned process of development, which focussed on agriculture and industrial development . Diversification here was in the form of introduction of n e w courses and specialization in these courses. After 1975-76 diversification took the form of redesigning undergraduate courses. This was in response to the changing needs of industrial and mode rn development as well as inability of the formal system of education to produce required type of m a n p o w e r , as the existing system produced a prototype of m a n p o w e r which had difficulty in finding employment . Recently, i.e., in 1985-86 the need for diversification was further reiterated to meet the changing demands of development, particularly for building a science and technology base and development of h u m a n capabilities to contribute to the national developmental process. Here focus is on: redesigning of courses, flexibility in course combinations and developing wider capability a m o n g people through open learning system.

U n d e r non-formal system, where both public and private efforts were involved, the diversification was mainly in response to the needs of skilled and semi professional persons in the job market. This type of diversification mainly started in late 1950s and it continues till n o w .

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10.2 Diversification through introduction of n e w courses: formal system

Within the formal system, the diversification in general education took place in the development of arts, social sciences, commerce, science and education branches. O n industrial side—it occurred through the establishment of industrial training institutes for skilled workers; polytechnics for the semi-professional and engineering colleges and institutes of technology for the professionals. O n the agriculture side—agriculture colleges, agricultural universities and agricultural technology university had been set up. O n the side of business operations—institutes of management were established. For tackling the problems of h u m a n health at the skilled and semi professional level nursing and compound-ering training institutions and at the professional level medical colleges were set up.

Veterinary colleges were set up for dealing with the problems of animal health. O n the side of fine arts and culture, fine arts and music colleges and arts and music university as well as oriental learning colleges/institutes came into existence. Within these broad disciplines further diversification took place in the form of specialization. In economic subjects like, industrial, agricultural and urban economics and economics of education become separate branches. Similarly in agricultural science, plant breeding, high yielding variety seeds, and tissue culture became new subjects. Similar examples can be cited for almost all other broader disciplines. These diversifications have been mainly effected through development in the state of art and the knowledge and to some extent on the basis of needs for development.

The type of diversification in post-secondary education, as stated above, mainly started in 1950s and continues till date. However, by mid 1970s a good number of institutions were already offering new courses of studies and specialization. This trend continues even today. This m a y be seen in Table 10.1.

However, during early 70s signs of graduate unemployment became visible. Nearly 20-27 per cent of the graduates were not finding placement. Although this situation was mainly attributed to the slow rate of growth of economy, yet it was observed that the system of higher education was producing a prototype of manpower , whereas developing economy required wider capabilities among people and hence for m a n y jobs suitable persons were not available. There was a mismatch between types of capabilities demanded and the types of capabilities developed a m o n g students by the education system.

This argument is supported by the fact that of the 2.4 million students enrolled in higher education in 1975-76 nearly 80 per cent were pursuing arts, science and commerce studies. (See Table 10.2). Indicating .thereby that the system was generating older type of capabilities a m o n g most of the prospective educated work force, whereas the world of work required variety of capabilities.

Hence during mid seventies questions were raised regarding relevance of general graduate education and the need was expressed for redesigning and diversifying undergraduate programmes.

It m a y be mentioned that during this very period questions of relevance of higher education system, particularly within reference to third world countries were also raised at the Unesco level. It was felt that traditional subject combination, contents of the courses and methodology of teaching hardly develop the desired capabilities among the students, so as to enable them to respond to the emerging needs of developing economy and the society. A s economy becomes more industrialized and society becomes more

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Lectures

Table 10.1: N u m b e r of institutions bv courses of studies—India

Institutions/Years

Colleges

1950-51 1975-76 1984-85

Arts, Sciences & C o m m e r c e Technical & Professional

246 102

3 085 412

3 925 608

(a) Engineering/Technolog)' (b) Medicine Pharmacy/Ayurveda/

Nursing/Dentistry/Homeopathy (c) Agriculture (d) Veterinary Science

Law Physical Education & Edn. Oriental leaning Music/Fine Arts Total

33 109 215

39 20 10

19 60 73 14 514

224 56 23

132 330 271 42

4 272

304 61 28

192 412 276 65

5 498

Universities

General universities Engineering/Technology Ayurveda- (Indian Medicine) Agriculture universities O p e n universities D e e m e d universities General Technology Agriculture/Rural development Sciences Mines Architecture Veterinary Sciences Education Total Professional Institutes IIT ИМ Vocational institutes Industrial training institutes Polytechnics

27 1 ---

. --------

. -5

29 62

77 2 2 21 -

5 1 2 1 1 ---

10

5 5

365(a) 327

97 3 4 24 1

7 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 15

5

356(b) 389

Note: (a) U G C Annual Report. Educational Statistics at a glance, A I U , 1976 based Ministry of Education, Govt, of India and I A M R , Third Survey of Technical M a n p o w e r , 1976.

(b) T h e data are for 1973.


Table 10.2: Distribution of students enrolled in higher education by field of studies

Arts

1975-76

Percentage

44.5

1984-85(a)

Percentage

40.0

Science 19.1 19.7

C o m m e r c e 17.1 21.0

Education 3.2 2.4

Engineering & Technology

Medicine

4.0

4.3

4.5

3.8

Agriculture

Veterinary Science

Law

1.2

0.3

1.3

0.3

6.0

Other 0.5 0.6

Total 100 100

N u m b e r in millions 2.4 3.55

(a) In order to get clear picture of the extent of diversification, the data need to be collected and presented by

courses of studies within a broad discipline.

complex the knowledge and skills required to deal with the situations also change. Hence for enabling students to acquire the desired capabilities, contents of courses and their combinations need to be diversified and m a d e more flexible.

10.3 Diversification through restructuring of courses: general education

In response to this need the University Grants Commission of India initiated a scheme of restructuring of undergraduate programme in 1977. However, this scheme was not implemented by m a n y universities. Only a couple of universities came forward to implement it. In 1983 the revised guidelines were formulated and further stress was laid on the implementation of this scheme. Since then nearly 30 out of 80 affiliating universities have attempted redesigning of courses and these redesigned courses have been implemented in nearly 159 out of 5,400 colleges.

The scheme of restructuring of courses focusses on: (a) social value formation through foundation courses on science and society, contemporary problems of Indian

112

Lectures

development, freedom struggle, national integration, etc.; (b) developing required -knowledge—through different course combinations like—Physics, Mathematics and Computer Sciences/Electronics; Economics, insurance, business entrepreneurship, etc.; and (c) developing abilities to apply knowledge—through applied courses under different disciplines. Under this scheme the diversification was introduced in the form of foundation, core and applied courses with a built in flexibility in subject combinations. The scheme also provides for introduction of courses for developing vocational skills in certain areas related to regional and national needs.

The applied and job-oriented courses, so far implemented by the universities and colleges may be briefly narrated here. The courses for B.Sc. degree programme relate to: Agriculture and Rural Development—with five course options, Applied Physical and Chemical Science—with seven options, Applied biological sciences—with nine options.

That for Arts degree programmes these courses relate to: Rural Development—with seven options; Business & Public Management and Co-operatives—with eight options. Financial Management—with three options, Health and H o m e Economics—with seven options; Mass media & Communication—with seven options, Arts & Culture—with two options, Commerce degree courses—with seven options.

The job oriented courses relate to: Agriculture and animal husbandry—with six options, Marine Sciences—with seven options, Rural Development with—with four options, Business operations—with five options, Public Management—with four options, Financial Management—with five options, Industrial Operations—with four options, Small scale and Household industries—with two options; Science & Technology—with ten options, Computer Sciences—with two options; Health and Nutrition—with four options, H o m e Economics—with three options, Mass Media—with two options. Thus through job-oriented courses attempt is being made to develop skills which are likely, to be demanded in job situations.

However, implementation of these courses, owing to built in limitations of the system, lack of training and orientation of teachers in this new approach and resources required for the same, has been very limited. Hence diversification in enrolment of students has also been marginal. The N e w Education Policy, 1986 and Programme of Action has laid further stress on implementation of this scheme.

10.4 Diversification in professional education

Besides, diversification in general degree programmes, the need for diversification in professional degree programme in Engineering and Technology is also strongly felt. The present programmes of professional education based on traditional pattern have tended to develop older type capabilities in certain areas leaving many new and developing areas unattended. Therefore, to meet the needs of new industries, the diversification in professional education is also contemplated. Recent review of IITs and Engineering education has laid a stress on introduction of new areas of studies in professional education.

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10.5 Diversification through new modes

10.5.1 Correspondence courses

Distance education through correspondence courses, more on the lines of traditional graduate and post-graduate programmes, in arts, commerce and education started in the late 60s and early 70s. This was mainly in response to the needs of persons who were either employed or who could not attend regular day scholar programmes or could not get admission in universities and colleges. This mode catered for the educational demand of not only participating but also prospective work force as well as household population. Correspondence courses in liberal arts programmes tended to develop, more or less, older type of capabilities among students. Since the degrees awarded under this programme provided opportunities for further promotions and the scope for better job opportunities, many persons enrolled for correspondence courses. As on the date nearly 23 universities are offering graduate and post-graduate programmes through correspondence courses and are enrolling nearly 400 thousand students.

10.6 Open learning systems

Diversification through open learning system is of greater implication for developing human capabilities in a variety of areas and among wider groups of population. The formal university and collegiate system tends to impart knowledge, skills and values to, by and large, prospective work force, whereas open learning systems tends to impart and upgrade knowledge, skill and values to household population, prospective and employed work force in different vocations or walks of life. This system implies: (a) introduction of variety of courses (in modular form) catering to the knowledge and skill up-gradibility needs of persons in different walks of life; (b) built-in flexibility in options of courses with or without evaluation and certification. This concept of open learning in a formal system pertains to: open university system and informal way it relates to radio, T V and print media. This kind of diversification has come in response to the realization that the modern production and distribution process as well as social interaction require continuous knowledge and skill upgrading (both in broader and specialized areas) and this could be provided more effectively through open learning systems.

10.7 Open university system

The first open university in India was set up at Andhra Pradesh in 1982. Recently in 1986, at the national level, Indira Gandhi National Open University has been set up. The later one is attempting to cater to the wider needs of population in work force, population at home and prospective work force through various programmes. Some of the programmes launched by Indira Gandhi National Open University pertain to rural development, business management, teachers' proficiency, science and society as well as a structured graduate degree programme. Such programmes are available to people irrespective of their previous formal educational attainments.

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Lectures

10.8 Television

A television programme has been launched by the U G C for general awareness in science, social science and arts. These programmes are regularly telecast for the benefit of students and community at large.

10.9 Institutions of training for skilled m a n p o w e r : informal system

In response to immediate labour market needs, several skill formation institutions with private/public efforts have been set up in 1950s and these continue to grow till today. Most important among them are: institutions for training in secretarial practices, company secretaryship, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, maintenance and repairs of T V , electronic goods etc. Very recently institutions offering computer programming courses have also been started with private/public efforts. Private institutions are totally financed by the students/trainees. Detailed data on number of such institutions and students enrolled in them are hard to come by. However some data collected by I A M R , indicate that as on 1980-81, there were 4,393 institutions offering various skill oriented courses. These institutions enrolled 3.99 thousand students (see Table 10.3).

Table 10.3: Distribution of technical and vocational education programme institutes and their enrolment for the year 1981-82

1. Industrial/Technical/Arts & Crafts schools

2. Agriculture & Forestry schools

3. Nursing, A N M & H V schools

4. Pharmacy schools

5. Other Para-medical schools

6. Schools for Music & Fine Arts, etc.

7. Other schools

Total

I A M R , N e w Delhi, 1981-82.

2 296

78

639

101

129

386

754

4 393

235 793

6 707

33 306

4 545

4 059

49 648

65 299

399 357

10.10 Conceptualization of problem and planning imperatives

It m a y be pertinent to conceptualize this process of diversification so as to draw some conclusions for linking the post-secondary education with world of work and for planning the system to meet the needs of modern development.

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Diversification through addition of n e w courses or through specialization is an easier task and it mainly depends o n development of knowledge and the a m o u n t of resources allocated to the education system. H o w e v e r , diversification through restructuring of courses, i.e., diffusing a m o n g the mass , which over a period of time gathers around a few selected subjects, is most difficult task, as this effort encounters opposition from faculty and other institutional forces. H o w and w h y this happens m a y be seen in the following analysis.

T h e development of education system particularly higher education in most parts of the world (other than those parts where there is a built in relationship between the world of w o r k and the education either through centralized planning or through market m e c h a nism) is mainly influenced by development in academic fields, the m o m e n t u m of growth of the system and to s o m e extent by the signals of market forces. In such systems education and world of w o r k are likely to m o v e s o m e w h a t separately. Although there is a resemblance of relationship between education and planned process of economic developm e n t , as broad policy statements and plan decisions are always brought to bear on education policy and its planning, yet as these decisions remain at a very broad level, m a n y subtle and crucial aspects pertaining to implementation are left out. In such situation there is always a g a p — m o r e than the desired one— between the social and economic development and the educational development. This gap is further strengthened by the system' o w n m o m e n t u m of growth which in turn is influenced by the past trend and built-in structural limitations namely regulations, procedures, financial m e c h a n i s m , faculty orientation and decision m a k i n g processes. Therefore, in the absence of rigorous planning, supported by resources and institutional m e c h a n i s m , the interaction of policy and plan decisions with institutional forces create a state of nebulousness. In this state the policy implementation always falls short of expectations. This invariably causes a gap between the education and the world of w o r k .

Therefore, establishment of closer linkage between education and the world of w o r k , particularly through diversification of higher education involves:

(a) development of relevant contents of courses based on the changing needs of economy and society,

(b) modularization of courses,

(c) combination of courses cutting across the disciplines;

(d) flexibility in course options,

(e) orientation of teachers;

(f) introduction of n e w forms and m o d e s of teaching-learning strategies and their evaluation;

(g) proper mechanism of resource allocation, flow and utilization; and

(h) introduction of proper planing and m a n a g e m e n t practices.

T h e implementation of these aspects requires: First: Identification of the need areas for establishing closer linkage between the world of work and education. This depends on capability of policy makers to perceive and conceptualize policy options and their implications. In the absence of this capability there is always a long gestation period between the response of policy and the needs of the employment market.

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Lectures

Second: Operationalization of policy through highly scientific and detailed planning, proper resource input and institutional mechanism of implementation of policy. A weak planning invariably results in state of nebulousness in implementation.

Third: Promotion of forces which facilitate the implementation as well as development of a mechanism to sort out operational problems which quite often surface in the process of implementation. A n inadequate care of these forces and the absence of a mechanism to sort out problems, thwarts the implementation.

Fourth: Assessment of impact, feed back and necessary changes in plan as well as the process of implementation.

All these demand a greater understanding of institutional and socio-economic forces as well as development of rigorous planning and implementation processes, in much more minute details than quite often demonstrated under a broad macro theory of planned development.

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Lecture 11

Education employment linkages in the informal sector

by Brahm Prakash

11.1 Importance of informal sector

As generation of additional employment met with growing resistance in the organized sector of the economy, the attention of planners and development analysts turned towards other sectors. Informal sector was 'discovered' as one such area which was see to be playing a crucial role in absorbing more and more additional labour. However, understanding about this sector was rather limited because there was hardly any information available about organization of work in this sector. One had a little knowledge about skills that were required in this sector and even less about how one could go about providing these. It is therefore believed that an analysis of linkages between education and employment in the informal sector would provide useful insights for educational planning.

11.2 Difficulties in analyzing informal sector activities

There are several methodological difficulties which come in the way of rigorous analysis of this sector. First of all, as already mentioned, it is the absence of empirical evidence. Even though ILO has generated a series of studies on informal sectors of several cities of the Third World, the total evidence is hardly sufficient to provide a detailed picture of the phenomenon and is certainly not in conformity with the magnitude of the problem.

Secondly, the informal sector tends to acquire different profiles in different settings. Whereas there are common features like 'employment for livelihood' which are universal in their manifestation, other aspects like the economic sector, occupational category, wage level and working conditions in which this employment is created remain contingent upon the larger spatio—socio—economic—cultural context. Consequently comparability of one sector with the other becomes difficult. This has inhibited emergence of a concerted strategic intervention in the area.

Finally, whatever little evidence has been created, it deals primarily with the more overt and immediate economic issues of employment and earnings. It does not go deeper into questions of skill, training and the role of education therein. This particular deficiency has been a constraint on human resource economics in the informal sector.

11.3 A profile of informal sector

In the early eighties a study of informal sector in the port city of Bombay was conducted by ILO-ICSW. 1 The empirical evidence generated in this study is useful to describe the profile of informal sector and the role of education therein.

ILO-ICSW The urban dean-end? Pattern of employment among slum dwellers: Bombay, Somaiya, 1983.

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Lectures

Table 11.1: Formal/Informal sector wage differential by sex

Male wage

employees

Female wage

employees

All wage

Note: M = M e a n . S D = Standard Deviation, N = Number of cases

M SD

Formal

sector

367.96

(196.13)

n = 1371

229.79

(143.9)

n = 73

361.0

(196.13)

n = l 455

Informal

sector

234.74

(139.58)

n = 539

134.27

(85.44)

n = 62

224.67

224.67

n = 602

Overall

329.9

(191.56)

n = 1910

184.24

(128.61)

n=135

The study shows that most of the employees in the informal sector were relatively young (Mean age 31.4 years; Standard Deviation 11.25) and had joined the labour force only in the recent past (3-5 years ago). Though the pattern of jobs varied from location to location, they were mostly engaged in unskilled jobs, or were engaged in such jobs for which on-the-job training was provided within the same taking. It usually meant unpaid work during apprenticeship, and only a small payment thereafter even though conditions of work were arduous and difficult. Depending upon the neighbourhood one could have pre-dominance of tailoring activity or auto repairing, or welding. But, more importantly, there were so many types of small and odd jobs that the residual category of 'other jobs' over-shadowed any other category. This variety in some sense is the hall-mark of informal sector activities.

But in terms of industrial divisions the maximum concentration of employment was found in 'Personal Services' manufacturing and trading activities in that order. However, the scale of operations in all these activities were extremely small. Their predominance and relative share varied from location to location and was more a function of the neighbourhood and market linkages with the rest of the urban economy.

Even though working conditions were difficult, wages were low (Rs. 11.50 per day in terms of 1978 prices, approximately then equivalent to US$1.50) and there was absence of inter-job mobility. The entry into informal sector market was relatively easy. Most of the employees did not have to wait for entering into the labour market. Equally important was the fact that information about jobs and recruitment was carried out with the help of friends, relatives and common acquaintance. This is one of the more important features which has been well recognized and documented in the informal sector literature.

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Table 11.2. Formal/Informal sector wage differential by education

Mean wages

Level of education

Nil education

0-4th grade

5-8th

M SD

N

Formal sector

336.14 (194.46) n = 4496

364.4 (185.9) n = 389

356.2 (174.4) n = 432

469.28 (267.78)

n = 119

Informal sector

197.8 (131.9) n = 236

239.6 (146.5) n = 166

239.4 (129.1) n = 172

303.41 (172.22)

n = 22

S.S.C. and above

M e a n wages 361.0 224.7

Note: M = M e a n , S D = Standard deviation, N = Number of cases

11.4 Education in the informal sector

A high proportion of these employees (thirty-nine per cent) was illiterate. About twenty-eight percent were educated up to the fourth standard and another twenty-eight per cent were educated between fifth and eighth standard. In other words as m a n y as 95 per cent were educated less than grade eight. These percentages were substantively more than those found in the formal sector. But the more interesting results is that whatever the educational levels, the informal sector yields similar income differentials for different levels of education as is the case in the formal sector. This identical 'valuing' of education (in pro rata sense) is an interesting finding. It supports the contention that the informal sector is a continuation of the formal sector and largely prices 'characteristics' in the same way except that it is marked by low skills, low productivity and excess supply of labour. This leads to low wages and high earning differentials between the formal and informal sector.

The second aspect which needs to be noted is that whereas there is a significant earning difference between illiterates and the literates, it is not so when w e compare those w h o have studied up to four years with those w h o have studied up to grade eight. But again it is significant for those w h o are S S C (grade 10) and above. In other words, there are clear cut thresholds of education which are priced differently by the market. It does not yield m u c h premium for drop outs or those w h o have not completed their schooling upto a definite standard. The relevant data has been given in Tables 11.1 and 11.2. O n the face of it, the earning differentials m a y not seem m u c h , but as a proportion of their meagre earnings, these are certainly substantial.

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Part III Practical Exercises

121

Practical Exercise N o . 1

A . Diagnosis of the education/employment situation in Sri

Lanka '

by F. Caillods

1.1 Working-age population, labour force and labour force participation rate

The economically active population or labour force comprises all persons of either sex who furnish—the supply of labour for the production of economic goods and services. It includes employed and unemployed persons and excludes students, women purely occupied in domestic duties, retired persons, etc..

1. Complete Tables 1.1 and 1.2.

2. Analyzing Tables 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3, state a number of factors which influence the labour force participation rate of men and women (and therefore the size of the labour force).

3. To what extent can education influence the labour force participation rate.

4. H o w do you explain the evolution of the labour force participation rate between 1971 and 1981.

Table 1.1 : Working-age population, labour force and labour force participation rate by sex, Sri Lanka 1971 ( Population in 000s)

К

2.

Working-age population (10 years old and over)

Employed population ('000)

TOTAL

9354

3649

MALE

4839

2838

FEMALE

4515

810 Unemployed population 3o Unemployed actively

seeking work 504 306 198

4 . Unemployed not actively seeking work 335 168 167

5o Sub-total unemployed (3+4) 839 474 365

6. Labour Force (2+5) 4488

7 . Labour force participation rate (6/1)

This exercise was introduced by M r . S .K. C h u and M r . N . V . Varghese

123

Inten

sive Training C

ourse on Education, W

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124

Practical Exercises

Table 1.3: Labour force participation rate by age and sex, Sri Lanka 1981 (in %)

Sex/age

TOTAL

MALE

FEMALE

10-14

4.0

5.5

2.4

15-19

29.9

40.4

19.0

20-24

57.8

78.7

36.8

25-34

63.6

91.5

35.2

35-44

62.6

93.5

30.5

45-64

50.4

79.9

18.1

65 4 over

20.9

37.8

4.0

TOTAL •

4 4..4

64.8

23.1

Table 1.4 : Unemployment rate by sex, Sri Lanka 1971

TOTAL MALE

1. Total labour force (000f) ИД88 3312

FEMALE

1175

2. Total unemployed population (000') 839

Rate of unemployment (2/1 x 100)

№ 365

3. Unemployed actively job-hunting (000') 50Д

(3/1 x 100)

306 198

125


Table 1.5: Unemployment rate by age - Sri Lanka, 1971

Total 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65 4 over

Total lab. force COOO) 4488.0 80.6 511.6 840.4 1147.9 863-3 904.2 138.2

Unempl'd pop. COOO) 839.2 29.6 206.5 296.4 186.3 57.7 50.8 11.6

Unemplm't rate (?) 18.6 6.6 5.6 8.3

Table 1.6: Unemployment rate by educational level 1971

Educational level Total labour force Unemployed(000') Unemployment rate 000 '

No schooling

Passed grades 1-10

GCE "0" Level in 6 or more subjects

"A" Level in 3 or subjects

Degree equivalent higher

more

or

941.

3150.

287.

74,

30,

.6

,2

.1

.5

.4

100.9

614.7

112.7

6.8

3.9

TOTAL 4488.0 839.2 18.7$

126

Practical Exercises

Table 1.7 Unemployed population by period for which actively job-hunting (10 year and over)

Total unemployed Not actively Total actively Period for which actively seeking work seeking work seeking work 0-6 6-12 1 year 2 yrs 3 or more угз

mnths mnths

TOTAL 000'

839.2 335.1 503.8 30.1 36.6 75.5 105.1 218.1

100.0 100.0

Table!.o: Unemployed population and period for which actively job-hunting by educational attainment (in Í)

Total unemployed Not actively Total actively Period for which actively seeking work seeking work seeking work 0 - 6 6 - 1 2 1 year 2 yrs 3 or more угз

mnths mnths

No schooling ' 100

Grade 1 or below 100

Grade 5 to 9 100

71.8

58.9

40.3

20.2 100.0 12.8 9.0 16.2 18.0

11.1 100.0 11.3 8.9 16.1 19.7

59.7 100.0 7.6 7.6 15.9 22.1

11.0

11.1

16.8 n0" Level in less than 6 100 subjects

"0" Level in 100 6 or more subjects

"A" Level In less 100 than 3 subjects

"A" Level in 3 100 or more subjects

23.7

15.0

18.3

11.6

76.3 100.0

81.7 100.0

6.9 7.2 15.1 22.2 18.2

85.0 100.0 .5.5 5.2 11.1 10.2 59.7

5.5 5.1 12.3 18.6 58.6

88.1 100.0 5.1 5.0 12.0 19,2 58.7

Degree level 100 20.5 79-5 100.0 7.9 8.6 22.9 20.7 39.8

127


Table 1.9 : Composition of the employed population by employment status (1971)

Paid employee Employer Self-employed Unpaid family TOTAL worker

TOTAL 2429.9 113.8 913.7 193.3 3648.8 (000») % 66.6 3.1 25.0 5.2 100.0

MALE (000' ) *

FEMALE (000') *

1806.9

623.0

107.5

6.3

823.1

90.7

100.8

90.5

• 2838.Д 100.0

810.4 100.0

Table 1.10 : Composition of the employed population by employment status and occupation (in %)

Paid Employer Self- Unpaid family : TOTAL employee employed worker

Professional & technical workers 93.2 2.2 4.4 0.2 • 100.0

Administrative & managerial workers 89.5 7.2 2.8 0.5 100.0

Clerical workers 99.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 -100.0

Sales workers 45.2 18.7 33.2 2.9 100.0'

Service workers 88.5 2.8 6.6 2.0 100.0

Agrie, workers 49.8 1.4 39.7 9.1 100.0

Production workers 87.7 2.7 8.8 0.8 100.0

TOTAL 66.6 3.1 25.0 5.2 100.0

128

Practical Exercises

1.2 Level of unemployment (1971)

1. Complete Tables 1.4, 1.5, 1.6 and 1.7.

2. C o m m e n t on Tables 1.4 to 1.8.

• H o w would you define the situation of unemployment in Sri Lanka in 1971?

• W h o is primarily hit by unemployment (by age, sex and educational level)?

• H o w does education affect: (1) the chances of somebody being unemployed; (ii) the fact that he or she would be actively seeking for work or not; (iii) the period for which he/she is actively looking for work.

• H o w would you characterize the population not actively looking for work?

1.3 Structure of the employed population

1.3.1 Structure of employment by status.

Complete Table 1.9 and comment on Tables 1.9 and 1.10.

1.3.2 Employment structure by industiy.

Complete Table 1.11 and comment . H o w would you describe the growth of employment between 1963 and 1971 and between 1971 and 1981? Which economic sector employs the most people? H o w did the situation evolve in this respect between 1963, 1971 and 1981?

129


Table 1.11 : Employment structure by industry : Evolution from 19631 1971 to 1981

. 1963 Î97Î Í98"i (000) % (000) % (000) %

Agriculture

Mining 4 qua.

Manufacturing

Construction

Commerce

Transport

Finance

Services

1693

10

313

86

268

133

20

655

53.27

0.31

9.85

2.71

8.43

4.19

0.63

20.61

1829

13

349

104

344

179

25

807

1876

34

_ 425

134

437

200

57

957

45.53

0.83

10.32

3.25

10.61

8.45

1.38

23.23

TOTAL 3178 100.00 3650 100.00 4120 100.00

Total employment annual growth rate 1963-1971 = 1971-1981 =

130

Practical Exercises

1.3.3 Employment by occupations and the occupation!industry matrix.

Complete Tables 12 and 13. C o m m e n t on the change in the occupational structure between 1971 and 1981. Which industry employs most qualified manpower and h o w did the situation evolve between 1971 and 1981? Which industry employs most qualified manpower and h o w did the situation evolve between 1971 and 1981? Which factors can explain this evolution?

1.3.4 Employed population by educational level and occupation

Complete Table 14 and m a k e general comments. H o w does the educational profile evolve with the occupation? Is there one typical educational level for each occupation? If not, could you m a k e some suggestions on h o w to break the big occupational categories into more homogeneous ones as far as education is concerned. D o you think it feasible to define occupations perfectly homogeneous as far as their educational profile is concerned? W h y not? Given what you have seen regarding the level of unemployment of school leavers, h o w is the educational profile of each occupation likely to change in the future?

131


Table!.12: Employment structure by Industry and occupation In 1971

Professional/ Admln. & Clerical Sales Service Agricul. Production Others Total

technical managerial workere workers workers workers workers

Agriculture

Í

Mining

Manufacturing

%

Construction

%

Transport

% '

Commerce

Í

Banks 4 Finance

?

Services

%

TOTAL

1904 0.1

127 1.0

'1986

2'I85 2.4

2738

1.5

2132

3292

13.2

160824

170508

475 0.0

51 0.4

2130

255 0.2

979

0.5

2526

1157 4.6

6344

13924

6852 0.4

219 1.7

12494

4723 4.6

51053 20.5

22021

10580 42.4

78200

106230

2154 0.1

131 1.0

10324

412 0.4

5B8

0.3

241977

960

3.8

15819

272444

13712

0.7

147

1.1

4972

2444

2.4

4861

2.7

37608

442 1.8

133792

197999

1765114

96.5

49 0.4

5701

451 0.4

624

0.3

2554

66

0.3

7575

1782234

'38011

2.1

12331

94.3

306497

92209 89.0

116104

64.9

33935

0133 32.6

319171

926772

755 0.0

24

0.2

1868

0.5

582 0.6

1929

1.1

1015

0.3

315

1.3

84968

10.5

91460

1828977 100.0

13079 100.0

34B972 100.0

103561

100.0

178876

100.0

343768

100.0

-.. 24945 100.0

806693 100.0

3649571 100.0

Table 1.13 Employment structure by industry and occupation in 1981

Agriculture

%

Mining

%

Manufacturing

%

Construction

% •

Transport

%

Commerce

%

Banks 4 Finance

%

Services

%

TOTAL

%

Professional/

technical

1283 0.1

193 0.6

0639

5670

4.2

3853

1.9

3117

0.7

6613 11.6

217016

246405

Admin. &

managerial

1476

0.1

151 0.4

8522

2.0

2322

1.7

2201

1.1

5400

1.2

4939

8.7

8675

0.9

33701 '

Clerical

workers

9443

0.5

500

1.5

27049

11421

8.5

62251 З1.2

З1054 7.1

24114 ' 42.4

91595

257525

Sales workers

1119 0.1

144 0.4

8022 1.9

279 0.2

754 0.4

295699 67.6

2069 3.6

7604 0.8

315764

Service workers

15672 0.8

408 1.2

12373 2.9

5965 4.5

13ОО7 6.6

61256 14.0

7520 13.2

118935 •

235259

Agricul. workers

1024458 97.3

51 0.2

6370 1.5

338 0.3

530 0.3

1439 0.3

70 0.4

13753 1.4

1847109

Production workers

21060 1.2

32321 95.6

350841

107393 80.2

115088 57.7

37982 8.7

11069 19.4

413504

1090403

Others

517 0.0

46 0.1

'2899 0.7

580 0.4

1810 ' 0.9

1371 0.3

533 0.9

86039 9.0

93798

Total

1875828 100.0

33814 100.0

424715 100.0

133968 100.0

199574 .' 100.0

437318 \ 100.0

569267 100.0

957121 . 100.0

4119965 100.0

132

Pra

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133


B . Solution to the practical exercise on the diagnosis of the

education/employment situation in Sri Lanka

by F. Caillods

1.1 Working-age population, labour force and labour force participation rate

Table 1.1 : Working-age population, labour force and labour force participation rate by sex, Sri Lanka 1971 (Population in 000s)

1.

2.

Working-age population (10 years old and over)

Employed population C'000)

TOTAL

9354

3649

MALE

4839

2838

FEMALE

4515

810

Unemployed population 3. Unemployed actively

seeking work 504 . 306 198

4. Unemployed not actively

seeking work 335 168. 167

5. Sub-total unemployed (3+4) 839 474 365

Ti Labour Force (2+5) 4488 3312 1175

7. Labour force participation rate (6/1) 47.3% 68.4* 26.0!

134

Practical Exercises

Table 1 .2 Working-age population, labour force and labour force participation rate by зех and age,

Sri Lanka 1971

T o t a l 1 0 - 1 1 1 5 - 1 9 2 0 - 2 4 2 5 - 3 1 3 5 - 1 1 4 3 - 6 4 65 & over

T 0 T A L

Working age population 9351.3 1609.0 1359.9 1270.7 1683.9 1311.6 1580.3 538.1

Labour Force 1188.0 80.6 511.6 810.1 1117.9 863.3 901.2 138.2

Labour force participation rate 47.93t 5.13t 37.6* 66. IX 68.2% 65.8% 57.2% 25.6jf

MALE 639.6 856.7 601.2 859.3 292.1

568.5 033.1 661.7 742."0 121.1

88.9% 97.2Í 97.1Í 86.3% 42.5%

631.1 827.2 630.I 720.8 216.0

271.9 311.7 201.6 162.2 13.7

Labour force participation rate 26.0 3.9 26.6 43.1 38 .0 31.9 22.5 5.5

Working age pop.

Labour force

Labour force participation rate

FEMALE Working age pop.

Labour force

4839.0

3312.1

60.1%

4515.2

1175.6

820.9

49.4

6.03t

780.1

31.2

688.7

332.8

48.3%

671.3

178.8

Table 1.3: Labour force participation rate by age and sex , Sri Lanka 1981 (in %)

Sex/age

TOTAL

MALE

10-14

1.0

5.5

15-19

29.9

Ю Л

20-24

57.8

78.7

25-34

63.6

91.5

35-44

62.6

93.5

45-64

50.4

79.9

65 & over

20.9

37.8

TOTAL

44.4

64.8

FEMALE 2 . 4 1 9 . 0 < 3 6 . 8 3 5 . 2 3 0 . 5 18.1 4 . 0 23 .1


1.1.1 Comments

1. Various factors influence the labour force participation rate; these are: age, sex, the type of economic growth and the demand for labour (where demand is high, salaries increase and people are more inclined to enter the labour force; contrarily when unemployment is high, some people, e.g. elderly people or women , prefer to withdraw from the labour market and remain inactive); size of the family income (when the family income is high, women and children will remain out of work, whereas when the family income is low, women and children may be forced to try to find work); educational level, etc..

2. Education has two opposite effects on the labour force participation rate. O n the one side it delays the entry of youngsters into the labour market: the extension of compulsory education decreases the labour force participation rate of the 10-14 year-old age group, or even the 15-19 year-old age group. O n the other side, more educated people are more likely to enter the labour market and seek employment. This is particularly the case for women: women with university degrees tend to have an LFP rate as high as men.

3. The Labour Force Participation rate (LFP) declined slightly between 1971 and 1981. This decline affected both men and women and was apparent for all age groups. It could therefore be the result of a slight change in the definition of the labour force (who is employed, who is unemployed) between the two censuses. It can also, however, be the result of worsening unemployment. More people would be discouraged to enter the labour force. The strongest decline in the LFP rates was observed between 10 and 24 years of age. This was probably the result of the extension of the educational coverage.

136

Practical Exercises

Table 1.4; Unemployment rate by sex, Sri Lanka 1971

TOTAL

1. Total labour force (000«) 4488

2. Total unemployed population (0001) 839 Rate of unemployment (2/1 x 100) 18.6

3. Unemployed actively job-hunting (000') 504 (3/1 x 100) П.2

MALE

3312

474 14.3

306 9.2

FEMALE

1175

365 31.1

198 16.9

Table 1.5: Unemployment rate by age - Sri Lanka, 1971

Total 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65 & over

Total lab. force (»000) 4488.0 80.6 511.6 840.4 1147.9 863-3 904.2 138.2

Unerapl'd pop. C000) 839.2 29.6 206.5 296.4 186.3 57.7 50.8 11.6

Unemplm't rate (Í) 18.6 36.7 40.3 35.2 16.2 6.6 5.6 8.3

Table 1.6: Unemployment rate by educational level 1971

Educational level Total labour force (000')

Unemployed(000') Unemployment rate

No schooling

Passed grades 1-10

GCE " 0 " Level in 6 or more subjects

" A " Level in 3 or more subjects

Degree equivalent or higher

941.6

3150.2

287.1

74.5

30.4

100.9

614.7

112.7

6.8

3.9

10.75

19.55

39.25

9.1!

12.85

TOTAL 4488.0 839.2 18.7?

137


Table 1.7 Unemployed population by period Tor nlilch actively Job-hunting (10 years' old and over)

Total unemployed Hot actively Total actively Period for which actively seeking work seeking work seeking work 0-6 6-12 1 year 2 угэ 3 or more yrs

ninths mnths

TOTAL 000'

839.2

100.0

335.4

no'.o

503.8 38.4 36.6 75.5 105.1

60.0 100.0 7.8 7.3 15.2 20.9

248.1

18.8

Table 1.8 Unemployed population and period for which actively Job-hunting by educational attainment (in $)

Total unemployed Hot actively Total actively Period for which actively seeking work seeking work seeking work 0 - 6 6 - 1 2 1 year 2 yrs 3 or more yrs

mnths mnths

No schooling 100

Grade 'I or below 100

Grade 5 to 9 100

"0" Level in less than 6 100 subjects

"0" Level in 100 6 or more subjects

"A" Level In less 100 than 3 subjects

"A" Level In 3 JO0 or more subjects

Degree level 100

71.8

58.9

'10.3

23.7

15.0

18.3

11.6

20.5

28.2 100.0

41.1 100.0

59.7 100.0

12.8 9.0 16.2 18.0 44.0

11.3 8.9 16.1 19.7 44.1

7.6 7.6 15.9 22.1 46.8

76.3 100.0 6.9 7-2 15.4 22.2 48.2

85.0 100.0 5.5 5.2 11.4 18.2 59.7

81.7 100.0 5.5 5.1 12.3 18.6 58.6

88.4 100.0 5.1 5.0 12.0 19.2 58.7

79.5 100.0 7.9 8.6 22.9 20.7 39.1

138

Practical Exercises

1.2 Level of unemployment (1971)

1.2.1 Comments

1. Unemployment in Sri Lanka was pretty serious in 1971. Not only was 18.6 per cent of the labour force unemployed (Table 4) but most people had to wait for a long period (3 years or more) before finding a job. The less qualified people even became discouraged and entered into the category "not actively seeking employment" (i.e. not trying to enter the modern sector of the economy, and probably working in the informal sector of the economy: peddlers, street hawkers, etc.).

2. The categories most hit by unemployment are:

• youngesters: less than 24 years old

• women (31.1 per cent of them were unemployed)

G C E " O " level graduates.

3. Effect of education on employment:

Apparently, those who have less chance of being unemployed are either those uneducated or those who have an " A " level. One can reasonably assume that many of the uneducated are working in agriculture and are therefore as much under-employed as employed. People who have gone as far as the G C E " O " level try to find a job in the modern sector and therefore are more likely to be unemployed, waiting for a job. This is further demonstrated by the fact that below Grade 10 people do not actively seek a job. By comparison, " O " level graduates prefer to wait for long periods, relying on the extended family, rather than accepting a job below their expectations. The difference in salary between the modern sector and other forms of employment probably justifies this attitude.

Beyond " O " level, the unemployment rate is lower: this is obviously an incentive for people to continue their education as long as they can. The unemployment rate of degree holders although below the national average, is very high and should be a source of preoccupation for the educational planner. It would have been interesting to obtain information on what sort of degree holder particularly is unemployed (arts versus science graduates) and to know how the situation has evolved more recently).

139


Table 1.9 : Composition of the employed population by employment status (197D

Paid employee Employer Self-employed Unpaid family TOTAL worker

TOTAL (000') %

MALE (000*) %

FEMALE (000') "

2429.9 66.6

1806.9 63.7

623.0 76.9

..113.8 3.1

107.5 3.8

6.3 0.9

913.7 • 25.0

823.1 29.0

90.7 11.2

193.3 5.2

'100.8 3.5

90.5 11.2

3648.8 100.0

2838.4 100.0

810.4 100.0

Table 1.10 : Composition of the employed population by employment status and occupation (in %)

Paid Employer Self- Unpaid family employee employed worker

TOTAL

Professional 4 technical workers 93.2

Administrative & managerial workers 89.5

Clerical workers 99.2

Sales workers

Service workers

Agrie, workers

Production workers 87.7

2.2 4.4 0.2 100.0

89.5

99.2

45.2

88.5

49.8

87.7

7.2

0.3

18.7

2.8

1.4

2.7

2.8

0.4

33.2

6.6

39.7

8.3

0.5

0.1

2.9

2.0

9.1

0.8

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

1 оо". о 100.0

TOTAL 66.6 3.1 25.0 5.2 100.0

140

Practical Exercises

1.3 Structure of the employed population

1.4 Comments

1.4.1 Structure of employment by status:

There is a fairly large number of self-employed people, most of w h o m work in agriculture or in the urban informal sector (sales workers, production workers), but there are also a number of self-employed professionals and degree holders.

Unpaid family workers are again working in agriculture or in the informal urban sectors (sales and service workers).

Altogether wage employment represents only 66.6 per cent of the labour force. Differences can be observed between sex: w o m e n are more often than m e n unpaid family workers; they are however largely under-represented among the self-employed.

1.4.2 Employment structure by industiy

The past growth of employment has been slow, lower than that of the total population and of the working-age population. This explains the growth of unemployment and underemployment.

The sectors which employ most people are: (i) agriculture, (ii) services, and (iii) commerce. Manufacturing does not employ a fair proportion of the labour force.

The number of persons working in agriculture grew at a lower rate than total employment, thus agriculture's share in the labour force declined. Nonetheless it still remains high in 1981.

Employment in manufacturing grew rather slowly, as did total employment. Its share in total labour force remains stable or increases only slightly. The only sectors where employment developed fast are services, transport, commerce, finance, and to a lesser extent construction.

141

Intensive Training Course

Table 1.11 : Employment structure to 1981

1963 (000) %

Agriculture

Mining & qua.

Manufacturing

Construction

Commerce

Transport

Finance

Services

1693

10

313

86

268

133

20

655

53.27

0.31

9.85

2.71

8.43 . •

4.19

0.63

20.61

TOTAL 3178 100.00

Total employment annual growth rate

142

Education, Work and Employment

industry : Evolution from 1963, 1971

Í97I Î98Ï (000) % (000) %

1829

13

349

104

344

179

25

807

50.11

0.36

9.56

2.85

9.42

4.90

0.68

22.11

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34

425

134

437

200

57

957

45.53

0.83

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3.25

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1963-1971 = 1.7* 1971-1981 = 1.2J6

Practical Exercises

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Practical Exercises

1.4.3 Employment by occupation and the occupation/industry matrix

The occupational structure moved slowly but significantly between 1971 and 1981. The proportion of agricultural workers declined. At the other end of the scale, the proportion of people employed in qualified occupations (professional and technical workers, managers and administrators, clerical workers) increased.

The industries which employ the highest proportion of qualified manpower (professional and technical workers, managers and administrators) are: (i) community, social and personal services (particularly health and education); (ii) financing, insurance and business services; (iii) to a m u c h lesser degree, construction and transport. Such industries, but others as well, increased their proportion of qualified manpower between 1971 and 1981, probably for two reasons: (1) the tasks have become more and more complex, thus better trained and more specialized people are required; (2) on the supply side, there are more and more people available on the market. Given the strong competition, firms can n o w recruit educated people at lower salary rates (this phenomenon has been described by some authors as "the diploma disease").

Since it is those industries which have witnessed the highest increase in employment, it is not surprising to find that the occupational structure has changed with a relative increase in the most qualified occupations.

1.4.4 Employed population by educational level and occupation

In certain occupations only people with low educational levels are employed: agricultural workers, sales and service workers and other workers. Elsewhere in the economy more educated people are found, e.g. clerical workers. Thus there is a definite hierarchy between occupations in terms of their educational profile. Even so, there is no single educational level which characterizes one occupation. Each occupation seems to be filled by people with a wide variety of educational backgrounds:

• professional workers include university graduate, " A " level graduates and " O " level graduates, or even lower;

• production workers include illiterates as well as G C E " O " level holders;

• even managerial occupations are filled not only by people having passed Grades 6-10 (the majority) but also by those with a lower educational background (illiterates to Grade 5), as well as university graduates.

The vast dispersion is due to the non-homogeneity of the broad occupational categories: engineers and technicians, university professors and primary school teachers; doctors and nurses enter in the same category, together with artists, musicians, etc., i.e. professional and technical occupations. The manager of a large public or multi-national firm is classified together with the manager of a small family-owned firm. Skilled workers such as mechanics, electricians, machine fitters, etc., are classified together with the unskilled workers.

T o get a clearer occupation/education matrix, it would be useful to break down certain big occupational categories; for example by identifying (i) the teaching professions, (ii) the professional and technical categories, (iii) the religious and other artistic occupations.

145


Additionally one should separate managerial occupations from legislative, official and government administrators; and among production workers differentiate the occupations according to their skill requirements. Even if this can be done, and if a more detailed breakdown of educational level is used, w e will probably never identify a clear occupational profile for each occupation. Indeed other factors influence the educational profile of an occupation: such as the age or sex of the person holding a job (for instance older people generally have lower educational qualifications than their younger counterparts), the type and the size of the enterprise, etc.

Given the high unemployment rate of educated people in Sri Lanka, together with the greater complexity of certain tasks to be performed (due, amongst other things to the introduction of modern technology), the educational profile of the different occupations is likely to change in the future in favour of those with better and more up-dated educational qualifications.

146

Practical Exercises

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147


Manpower planning: a simulation exercise (the case of Sri

Lanka) '

by S. Zuari Bouattour

2.1 Introduction

Two models have been developed on Lotus 1,2,3-

• the manpower demand model

e the manpower supply model

The aim of models is to familiarize users with projection techniques and the use of microcomputers and worksheet programmes.

Some of the cells contain data about the past and present situation of Sri Lanka or data about other countries for comparison purposes. Other cells show the relationship between the different variables of the model. These two groups of cells are protected and cannot be changed.

A third group of cells (green cells on the monochrome screen) contain the policy variables or the target to be achieved in the year 2000, which is the horizon year for the projection. These cells are unprotected and may be changed. Their modification simulates several sets of decisions and/or states of the world in Sri Lanka and enables an analysis to be made of their long term effects.

2.2 The manpower demand model: a case study on Sri Lanka

For the preparation of the case study of this unit, a particular effort has been made to gather data on education and employment in Sri Lanka. The main statistics have been collected from the census taken in 1963, 1971 and 1981.

For comparison purposes, similar data have been collected for Japan, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

These data are available in the form of a Lotus 1,2,3 worksheet which can be used for analysis purposes, computation and simulation.

2 Presented by Mr. S.K. Chu and Mr. Brahm Prakash

148

Practical Exercises

2.2.1 Computation

T h e m a n p o w e r projection model , which is developed on Lotus 1,2,3, follows the method described in Lecture 3. Its aim is to project the demand for university graduates and A level graduates3 according to different sets of assumptions about:

(a) the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product per capita and the growth rate of population;

(b) the projected share of the contribution to G D P of the main economic sectors of activity;

(c) the projected productivity of labour by sector and its implications on employment distribution by economic sectors of activity;

(d) the projected occupational structure by economic sector of activity;

(e) the projected educational attainment of workers in each occupational group.

These sets of assumptions should be determined by planners and policy makers, on the basis of macro and micro studies on economic growth and manpower utilization as discussed in the plenary lecture.

Using as very rough guidelines the evolution observed in the period 1971-1981 and s o m e comparative statistics on selected Asian countries, one could m a k e his/her o w n assumptions. Y o u are given some assumptions m a d e on this basis for the purpose of this case study. (See Tables attached).

Nevertheless, you should keep in mind:

• the drawback of the international comparison approach;4

• the existence of inter-relationships between some parameters which have not been catered for in the present model in order to keep the worksheet to a manageable size and complexity.

For instance, the sectoral distribution of the value added and the G D P growth rate have been considered as independent variables, where as in fact they are related. In the same context, the projected G D P growth rate should be considered as a function of the available quantities of qualified manpower and consequently it depends on the manpower projections which are in fact linked to the production objectives.

Another example of inter-relationship between some parameters concerns the employment projections. T h e projections are m a d e on the basis of reference to labour productivity, which is correlated to the educational attainments of manpower .

Higher Secondary

R . V . Youdi and K . Hinchliffe (Ed), Forecasting skilled manpower needs: The experience of eleven countries,

Unesco/IIEP, Paris, 1985.

149

Practical Exercises

If the model developed hereby is particularly simple through avoiding these interrelationships between parameters, the user should not be too disappointed. In fact, most manpower forecasting exercises conducted in developing countries do not take into account these inter-relationships.

To familiarize themselves the the articulations of the model, users are asked to compute by hand the various stages of the model as follows:

1. According to the predicted rates of growth of the G D P per capita and of population, compute levels of G D P per capita, population and G D P which should prevail in Sri Lanka by; 2000. (Table l.A).4

2. According to the predicted distribution of value added among sectors, compute the resulting value added by each sector in 2000. (Table 2.A).

3. According to the predicted rate of growth of productivity by sector, compute the level of output per worker that will prevail in each sector in 2000. (Table 3.A).

4. Compute the resulting level of employment for each sector, and the corresponding structure of employment. (Table 4.A).

5. According to the predicted occupation structure for the year 2000, (Table 5.C) compute the labour demand for the main occupation groups. (Table 5.D). Since the model is concerned with the projection of qualified manpower coming from higher education and senior secondary education, only four main occupational groups are considered:

• professional and technical workers;

• administrative and managerial workers;

• clerical workers;

9 a very broad group of ther workers.

6. According to the predicted educational attainment of the main occupational groups, compute the required manpower for University and A level graduates. (Table 6.C).

7. O n the basis of the qualified manpower required for the year 2000 and the existing stock of qualified manpower in 1981, compute the total shortfall needed to meet the demand for University and A level graduates. (Table 7).

8. Assuming that:

• the number of manpower required to meet the shortfall rises arithmetically;

• the retirement and death rate is 3 per cent;

• 5 per cent of the university graduates and 33 per cent of the A level graduates do not, for various reasons, participate in the labour force.

N u m b e r s of Tables correspond to these given in the data diskettes for use in the micro computers.

150


Table 8 . A and Table 8 .B compute the n u m b e r of university and A level graduates required.

2.2.2 Simulation

Stability and predictability are essential features of the m a n p o w e r projection m o d e l .

Users are asked here to take advantage of the computational capacity of Lotus 1,2,3 to test h o w variation in several parameters would affect the d e m a n d for qualified m a n p o w e r . This kind of sensitivity test m a y give users and idea of the so-called "confidence intervals" of their forecasts.

For this purpose, particular attention should be given to three parts of the m o d e l ; the first one concerns the productive structure of the e c o n o m y , the second the changes in the occupation structure and the third deals with the projection of the educational attainment of the ma in occupation groups.

2.2.2.1 Part 1: Simulation of the productive structure of the economy

It is suggested that you vary the

(a) growth rate for GDP/capi ta and population;

(b) distribution of value added among sectors;

(c) percentage growth of productivity by sector.

Y o u can then see h o w they affect the distribution of e m p l o y m e n t a m o n g sectors and the general rate of u n e m p l o y m e n t . Y o u can counter-check your assumptions regarding the value of these parameters by comparing the resulting distribution of employmen t a m o n g sectors with the corresponding distribution observed in Japan in 1980 in order to avoid unrealistic assumptions.

2.2.2.2 Part 2: Changes in the occupation structure

Y o u are asked to assign values to the target occupation structure for the year 2000. (Table 5 . C ) .

T h e computation is done automatically, and you can test h o w the variations in the occupation structure would affect the d e m a n d for qualified m a n p o w e r .

2.2.2.3 Part 3: Changes in the educational attainment of the main occupation groups

Y o u are requested to assign the target proportion of qualified m a n p o w e r with a degree and A levels a m o n g the professional and technical, administrative and managerial, clerical and other workers for the year 2000.

Y o u can then test h o w changes in the educational attainments would modify the d e m a n d for university and A level graduates.

151

Practical Exercises

2.3 Manpower supply model: a case study on Sri Lanka

The main statistics have been collected with reference to four publications:

• B . C . Sanyal, University education and graduate employment in Sri Lanka A research study prepared by the IIEP, Paris and the Marja Institute, Colombo, 1983. '

• O . Engquist, L . Jiven, K . Nustram Education and training in Sri Lanka A sector analysis. Report of a SIDA mission, 1981.

• K . M . D e Silva, Sri Lanka: a survey The Institute of Asian affairs, Hamburg. C . Hurst & Co. , London, 1977.

• J. Hallak, Financing and educational policy in Sri Lanka, IIEP, Unesco, 1972.

These statistics are available in the form of a Lotus 1,2,3 worksheet which can be used for analysis purposes, computation and simulation.

2.3.1 Computation

The objective of the analysis is:

• to get an idea about the value of the key parameters of the manpower supply model;

• to simplify the very complex structure of the educational system with its multiple categories of institutions.

The school level transition rates in the primary and secondary educational system in Sri Lanka, set out in Table 10, have been compiled by the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) in 1981, on the basis of data obtained from the Ministry of Education on enrolment for 1978, 1979 and 1980 and on repeaters for 1979 and 1980.

The university level transition rates in university have been estimated for the purpose of this study.

For the projection of A level and University graduates, the well-known flow rates model will be used.

In order to keep the worksheet to a manageable size, the very complex structure of the educational system (shown in Figure 1) has been simplified into four stages: primary, junior secondary, senior secondary and university.

In the model, only two fields of studies in the senior secondary schools have been introduced because of their specificity concerning the flow rates: the science based A levels and Arts and Commerce A levels.

To ensure that you are now familiar with the model, compute by hand for 1980 and 1981:

• the projections for primary school

• the projections for junior secondary school

• the projections for senior secondary school

152


• the projections for university.

2.3.2 Simulation

The manpower projection model and the enrolment projection model are, here, independent models.

The aim of simulation therefore is to see how the educational system should be organized in the future so that the number of graduates matches the required number of graduates compiled in the manpower projection model.

For this purpose, you may give different values to the key parameters of the model, especially those on:

• transition rate from junior secondary schools to senior secondary schools, i.e. the percentage of O L graduates admitted to senior secondary schools (Table 10.C)

• admission rate to university, i.e. the percentage of A L graduates admitted to university (Table 10.D) and its annual increment

• distribution of admission to senior secondary schools between science based studies and arts and commerce based studies

• rates of promotion and repetition in the various grades.

For each set of values, the computation will be done automatically and you may see how the assumption on the key parameters would affect the output of the educational system and make it adapt more or less to the needs of the economy.

For this purpose you are asked to analyze the consequences of an annual increment in the admission rate to university of 10 per cent. Fill the balance sheet of demand and supply of manpower (Table 11). Comment.

153


Annexes

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SRI LANKA, MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS

TADLE 8. A ESTIMATED NUMBER OF' UNIVERSITY GRADUATES REOUÏ.RËF) 1983-2000

(EMPLOYMENT RATE : 0.95 >

1982

I 983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

199 1

1992

I 993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Numb«г required to meet

shortfall

1 ,580 2,437 3,293 4 , 1 49 5,005 5,861 fi, 7 1 7 7,574 0,430 9,286 10, 142 10,998 11,05 4 1 a,711 13,567 14,423 15,279 16,135 16,99 1

Number геци! rod

to replace retired/ el i e d

worltors

1 ,753 1 ,800 1 ,873 1 ,972 2,097 2,247 2 ,423 2, 624 2,851 3, 104 8,383 3 ,687 4,017 4 , 373 4,754 5,161 5,594 6 ,052 6,536

Nu m bet-ci F n e w

graduates •to be

f.'iTifil o y e il

3,333 4,237 5, 166 ft ,121 7,102 8, 108 9, 140 10, 198 1 1 ,2131 12,390 13,525 14,685 15,872 17,083 10,321 19,584 20,873 22,187 23,528

Number of univers ity y raduates required

3,500 4 ,4 49 5,424 6,427 7,457 8 ,51 4 9,597 10,708 1 1 ,845 13,010 14 ,201 15,420 16,6í>5

17,938

19,237

20,563

21,917

23,297 24,704

Total

number of j] г aduat.es employed

60,0 11 62,4 48 65,741 69,B90 74,895 80,756 87,4 73 95,047 103,4 77 I 12,763 122,905 133,903 14 5,758 158,168 172,035 186,458 201,737 2 17,972 284,864

162

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Practical Exercises

TADLE а.В ESTIMATED гШМПЕК OF A LEVEL GRADUATES REQUIRED 1983-2000 (EMPLOYMENT WATE : 0.67 )

_,

1982 1933 1904 I905> 1986 1907 19011 1939 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Mumber rei]ui red to meet

shortfall

1 6 , 7 1 1 16,452 16,193 15,93 4 15,675 15,416 15,157 14,090 14,639 14,330 14,121 13,062 13,603 13,34 3 13,034 12,325 12,566 12,307 12,04 0 .

Number required

to replace reti red/died

workers

3,239 3,790 4,234 4,769 5,247 5,713 6, 100 6,635 7,032 7,521 7,952 8,376 8,792 9 ,200 9,600 9 ,993 10,377 10,754 11 ,124 . „

Number of new

<] r a cl u a t о s l. о b e

employed

20,000 20,242 20,477 20,704 20,922 21,134 21,337 2.1 ,533 21 ,721 21,901 22,073 22,230 22,394 22,543 22,685 2.2 ,010 22,944 23,062 23,172

Number of Л Level

gradua tor; r e r| u i г и iJ

30,000 30,363 30,715 31,055 31,304 31,700 32,006 32,299 32,501 32,051 33, 1 10 33,356 33,592 33,015 34,027 34,227 34,416 34,593 34,750

Total number of graduates employed

126,334 142,787 158,980 174,9 14 190,589 206,005 221,162 236,060 250,690 265,070 279, 199 293,060 306,663 320,006 333,091 345,916 350,482 370,790 382,038

SCHOOL LEVEL TRANSITION RATES IN THE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEh - SRI LANKA

TABLE 10.A RATES OF йЕРЕПТ.ТОМ, P l< Of'iOT I Of--1 AND DROP OUT, 5R] LANKA, ТЭВ1

PRIMARY GСHOOL í i-У) Grade ï 2 3 4

REPETITION : PROMOT]ON

DROP OUT

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TABLE 10.Б ¡AIES OF REPETITION, PROMOTION. DROP OUT AND GRADUATION, SIR I LANKA, 1981

JUNIOR SECONDARY SCHOOL <£.-••• KO Grade

REPETITION PROMOTION DROP OUT

ORAQUATION TRANSITION

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164

Practical Exercises

TABLE 10.С RATEE! OF REPETITION, PROMOTION,DRO3 Gl.:T ANC' GRADUATION, SRI

b E N 10 F; S E С ONDA R Y S С H О О !. v 1 I -12) Grado 11 SCI 12 SCI 11 ART "> 2 ART

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UNI YFRSITY

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:ON,DROP OUT AMD GRADUATION, SRI LANKA, 1901

INITIAL ADMISSION RATE

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Practical Exercise Nu. 3

Practical exercises on tracer studies

by Bikas C . Sanyal

3.1 Question 1

Tables 3.1-3.3 give the reasons for pursuit of higher education among 1.928 students, 480 unemployed graduates and 1,343 employed graduates surveyed in the Indian state of West Bengal by (i) age, (ii) sex and (iii) religion.

Explain the differences if any, in the reasons (i) given by the three groups and (ii) according to the three characteristics mentioned. Can you draw any policy conclusions in respect of democratization of education in the state?

3.2 Quetion 2

Tables 3.4 and 3.5 give the specializations preferred by 681 students according to their family income and average years of education of the senior family members, in Bangladesh. Explain the effect of family income and family education on the preferences for occ~>pational and educational careers. Comment on whether this has any implications for policy.

3 3 Question 3

Tables 3.6-3.8 give the reasons for changes in preferred course according to three characteristics of 294 students in Bangladesh, who did not pursue their preferred course. Comment on whether the reasons have any association with gender, home region and family income of the students.

Table 3.9 gives the distribution of a sample of 1,206 graduates of Sri Lanka by employ- followcd, year of graduation and sex.

n the employment situation by discipline during the period 1974-79.

nt on the employmtnt status by gender and discipline.

(3) Comment on the nature of dependence over time.

Practical Exercises

Table 3.1: Distribution of respondents according to age and reasons for pursuing higher education

Age (years)

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35 & above

Total

20-24

25-29

30-39

Total

20-24

25-29

30-39

40—1?

50 i above

Total

Specific

career needs

642(32.0)

796(31.0)

117(31.1)

17(29.8)

3(23.1)

1575(31.4)

62(31.3)

162(29.4)

72(30.0)

296.(29.9:

28(26.9)

270!30.3)

450(30.6)

275(30.4;

58(28.3)

1081(30.5)

Reasons (or pursuing higher education

Bursary

incentives

207(10.3)

290(11.3)

45(12.0)

6(10.5)

1(7.7)

549(10.9)

26(13.1)

78(14.2)

29(12.1)

133(13.5)

11(10.6)

100(11.2)

157(10.7)

9CK9.9)

14Í6.8)

372(10.4)

Study tor

its own sake •

A - Students

428(21.3)

533(20.8)

72(19.1)

15(26.3)

4(30.8)

1052(21.0)

B. Unemployed graduates

32(16.2)

105(19.1)

51(21.2)

188(19.0)

C . Employed graduates

26(25.0)

196(22.0)

289(19.6)

17B,'!9.7)

46V22.4}

735(20.6)

Employment

opportunity

642(32.0)

801(31.2)

123(32.7)

18(31.6)

4(30.8)

1588(31.6)

. 65(32.8)

163(29.6)

77(32.1)

305(30.9)

33(31.7)

278(31.2)

491(33.41

307(34.0

75-36.6.

1184(33.1)

Others

87(4.3)

145(5.6)

19(5.0)

1(1.7)

1(7.7)

253(5.0)

13(6.6!

42(7.6:

11(4.6.1

66i6.~

6(5.8:

47(5.3;

83(5.61

54 '6 .0 ;

12(5.8;

202(5.6

3.5 Question 5

Tables 3.10 and 3.11 give the methods utilized by graduates in Pakistan to obtain their first job and the employers' recruitment methods. Comment on the discrepancies and suggest possible means for improving upon the method of recruitment.

3.6 Question 6

Table 3.12 gives the relationship between occupation held and specialization studied by a sample of graduates in Pakistan. Examine its implications for educational planning based on manpower forecasts.

169

Table 3.2: Distribution of respondents according to sex and reasons for pursuing higher education

5e\

Male

Female

Total

Male

Femaie

Total

Male

Female

Total

Specific

с а ret'г needs

П"3(31.1)

428(32.2;

1601(31.4:

234(30.1)

65(29.8^

299(30.0)

1041(30.3)

60(28.8;

1101(30.2)

Rea:

Bursarv

incentives

451(12.0)

106(8.0)

557(10.9;

109(14.0!

26П1.9)

135(13.5)

362(10.5)

18( 8.6)

380(10.4;

sons for pursuing higher

Sfjc\ lor

¡is own sake

A . Students

"34(19.4)

337(25.4)

10 _ 1 Í21 .0 !

educafion

8 . U n e m p l o y e d graduates

148(19.0)

42(19.3>

190(19.1)


69"¡20.3)

54(26.0)

751(20.6)

Emolovment

opponunn\

1201(31.91

410(30.9i

1611(31.6:

240(30.8 '

66(30.3.

306(30.-)

1144(33.3)

64(30.8!

1208(33.1)

Other.«.

208; 5.5:

48(3.6.

256(5.0.

47(6.0.

19(8.-)

66(6.61

192(5.6;

12(5.8'

204(5.6'

Table 3.3: Distribution of respondents according to religion and reasons for pursuing higher education

Religion

Hinduism

Muslim

Christian

Others

Total

Hinduism

Muslim

Others

Total

Hinduism

Muslim

Christian

Others

Total

Specific

career needs

1512(31.5)

48(30.4)

11(25.6)

24(32.4)

1595(31.4)

291(30.4)

6(26.1)

2(20.0)

299(30.2)

1063(30.3)

20(27.81

П - 3 3 . 3 ' . 5(27.8)

1099'30.2(

Reasons for pursuing higher education

Bursary incentives

522(10.9) 18(11.4) 6(14.0) 9(12.2)

555(10.9)

131(13.7) 303.0) 1(10.0)

135(13.6i

365(10.4) 7(9.7) 4.12.1. 2(11.1)

378(10.4)

Study ю г its own sake

A . Students 1002O0.9 ' 33(20.9) 11(25.6) 1824.3)

1064(21.0)

B. Unemployed graduates

183(19.1) 6(26.0) 2(20.0'

191(19.3)


724(20.61 17(23.6) 4M 2.1) ЗИ6.7)

748(20.6)

Employment opportunity

1323(31.7) 49(31.0) 13(30.2) 19(25.7>

1607(31.7)

290(30.3) 7(30.4) 4(40.0)

301(30.4)

1163(33.1) 25(34.7¡

1СКЗО.З; 6(33.3)

1204(33.1)

Others

240(5.0) Ю16.З) 2(4.7: 4(5.4)

256(5.0)

62(6.5) 1(4.3) 1(10.0)

64(6.5)

19Ы5 .6 ' 314.2!

2(11.1)

205(5.61

170

Table 3.4: Distribution of students by level of family income and specialization preferred

Specialization Preferred

Science

Engineering

Agriculture

Medical

Management

Commerce

Arts

Law

Economics

Social Science

All Groups

Upper income

40 (16.46)

42 (17.28)

26 (10.70)

27 (11.11)

5 (2.06)

18 (7.41)

39 (16.05)

3 (1.23)

21 (8.64)

22 (9.05)

243 (100.00)

Upper-middle inccmc

32 (15.53)

20 (9.71)

40 (19.42)

24 (И.65)

6 (2.91)

10 (4.85)

28 (13.59)

3 (1.45)

16 (7.76)

27 (13.11)

206 (100.00)

Lower mic die income

24 (13.87)

18 (10.40)

4 (23.12)

16 (9-25)

4 (2.31)

15 (8.67)

25 (14.45)

3 (1.73)

12 (6.94)

16 (9.25)

173 (100.00)

I- Lower income

7 (11.86)

3 (1.69)

14 (23.73)

5 (8.47)

2 (3.39)

4 (0.78)

8 (13.56)

2 (3.39)

5 (8.47)

11 (18.64)

59 (100.00)

Total

103 05.13)

81 (11.89)

120 (17.02)

320 00.57)

17 (2.50)

47 (6.90)

100 (14.68)

11 (1.62)

54 (7.93)

76

681 (100.00)

Note : Figures within parentheses represent column totals.

Source : Student survey.

171

Table 3.5: Distribution of students by specialization preferred and average years of education of the senior family members

Specialization

pc referred

Science

Engineering

Agriculture

Medical

Management

C o m m e r c e

Arts

î^\w

Economics

Social Science

All Groups

0-5

18 (11.39)

11 (6.96)

39 (24.68)

15 (9.49)

6

(3.80)

13 (8.23)

22

(13.92)

1 (0.63)

10 (6.33)

23 (14.56)

158

(100.00)

6—10

43 (13.74)

29

(9.26)

69

(22.04)

36 (11.50)

8

(2.55)

22 (7.03)

46

(14.70)

5

(1.60)

17

(5.43)

38 (12.14)

313

(100.00)

11—12

32 (13.48)

23 (25.84)

8

(8.99)

7 (7.67)

1 (1.12)

8

(8.99)

10

(11.24)

1

(Ы2) 11

(12.36)

8 (8.99)

89 (100.00)

13 and above

30 (24.79)

18 (14.88)

14 (3-31)

14 (11.57)

2 (1.65)

4 (3.31)

22 (18.18)

4 (3.31)

16 (13.22)

(5.79)

121 (100.00)

Total

103 (15.13)

81 (11.89)

120 (17.62)

72 (10.57)

17 (2.50)

47 (6.90)

100 (14.68)

11 (1.62)

54 (7.93)

76 (11.16)

681 (300.00)

Note : Figures within parentheses represent percentages of column totals. Source % Student survey.

172

Table 3.6: Distribution of students by sex and reasons for changing from expected course

Reasons

W a s not selected for the specialization preferred

The preferred specialization too expensive The guardian suggested otherwise L o w prospect of employment for the preferred specialization

Others

Total

Male

112 (43.75)

60 (23.44)

36 (14.06)

22 (8.59)

26 (10.16)

256 (100.00)

Female

10 (26.32)

3 (7.89)

13 (34.21)

2 (5.26)

10 (26.32)

38 (100.00)

Total

122 (41.50)

63 (21.43)

49 (16.67)

24 (8.16)

36 (12.24)

294 (100.00)

Note : Figures within parentheses represent percentages of column totals. Source : Student survey.

173

Table 3.7: Distribution of students by area and reasons for changing from expected course

Reasons


The preferred specialization too expensive The guardian suggested otherwise. L o w prospect of employment for the preferred specialization

Others

Total

Rural

97 (41.45)

55 (23.50)

37 (15.81)

17 (7.26)

28 (11-97)

234 (100.00)

Urban

25 (41.67)

8 (13.33)

12 (20.00)

7 (11.67)

8 (13.33)

60 (100.00)

Total

122 (41.50)

63 (21.43)

49 (16.67)

24 (8.16)

36 (12.24)

294 (100.00)

Note : Figures within parentheses represent percentages of column totals.


Table 3.8: Distribution of students by family income and reasons for changing from

expected course

Reasons


The preferred specialization too cx|>cnsivc

The guardian suggested otherwise L o w prospect of employment for the preferred specialization

Others

Total

Upper income

33 (37.50)

10 (11.36)

19 (21.59)

9 (10.23)

17 (19.32)

88 (100.00)

Upper-middle income

44 (51.16)

14 (16.28)

12 (13.95)

9 (10.46)

7 (8.14)

86 (100.00)

Lower-middle income

30 (34.48)

28 (32.18)

17 (19.54)

5 (5.75)

7 (8.05)

87 (100.00)

Lower income

15 (45.45)

11 (33.33)

1 (3.03)

3 (9.09)

3 (9.09)

33 (100.00)

Total

122 (41.50)

63 (21.43)

49 (16.67)

24 (8.16)

36 (12.24)

294 (100.00)

Note : Figures within parentheses represent percentages of column totals.


174

Table 3.9: Percent distribution of sample of graduates by labour force status, (as at 1980) course followed, year of graduation and sex

Year of graduation 1 974

Labour force status. Course followed Er Sex

1975 1976 1977 1978 Tola!

Total N o Percent Employe Unemplo Total

Total N o Percent Male Female Total

Total N o Percent Male Female Total

Total N o Percent

of graduates (sample)

i yod

of Employed (sample)

of Unemployed (sample)

of Employed (sample)

Professional Science Science

(Genrral) (Special)

Arts (General) Arts (Sp Total

Total N o Percent

ecial) . .

. of Unemployed (sample)

Professional Science Science Arts (Ge

(General) (Special) npral)

Arts (Special) . . Total

141 100.0

99 3 0.7 "

11.7

140 100.0

60.7 39.3 16.0

01 100.0 100.0

- •

0.3

140 100.0

10.0 9.3 0.7 •

47.1 32.9 ' 16.0

01 100.0

— — — 100.0

— 03

143 1O0.O

97.9 2.1

11.9

140 100.0

56.4 436 160

03 100.0

66.7 33.3 0.9

140 100.0

17.2 10.0 2.8

36.4 33.6 16.0

03 100.0

— 33.3

— 33.3 33.3 0.9

130 100.0

75.2 24.0 11.3

103 100.0

67.0 33.0 11.fl

33 100.0

30.4 63.0 10.0

103 100.0

28.2 12 6 3.9

23.3 32 0 11.R

33 1000 — ..-— 60.6 39 4 10.0

275 100.0

75.0 24.0 22.8

209 100.0

58.9 41.1 23.Э

66 100 0

28.8 71.2 19.9

209 100.0

15.8 7.7 3.8

10.5 62.2 23.9

66 100.0

1.5 1.5 30

42 4 51.6 1 9.9

222 100.0

61.3 38.7 18.4

136 100.0

65.4 34.6 15.5

86 100.0

43 .0 57.0 26 .0

136 100.0

24.3 20.6

4 4 12.5 38.2 15.5

86 100.0

3.5 1.2

— 43 0 52 3 2C.0

289 100.0

50.9 49.1 * 23.9

147 100.0

68.0 32.0 ' 168

142 100.0

47.2 52.8 42.9

147 100.0

25.2 10.9 8.8

10.2 44.9 16.8

142 100.0

2.1 13.4

— 33.8 50.7 42.9

1206 100 0

72 6 27.4

100.0

87 5

i oo.o 62.3 37.7

100.0

331 100.0

41.7 58.3

100.0

875 100.0

19.4 11.4 4.1

22.3 42.8

100.0

331 100 0

2.1 6.6 0.6

40 9 49 8

100 0

175

http://11.fl

Table 3.10: Methods utilized to procure employment or begin job search

Employees Unemployed (Procuring (Starting job

Methods Employment) Search) Contacts

Newspapers

Employment exchange

Educational institutions

Other

28 (747)

62 (1624)

2 (54)

3 (81)

5 (]бб)

4 95

1 -

*:") Contacts include personal contacts as well as those of relatives and employers.

Table 3.11: Employers recruitment methods

Me m o d s Percentages

Contacts 17 Employment exchange 13 Newspaper advertisement 50 Public service commission 16 Educational institutions 1 Others 3 N 299 Note: The employers indicated that tne method of selection

was either interviews (53 percent) or both an interview anc? a written test (37 perfcent) .

176

Table 3.12: Relationship of occupation and field of specialization

(Percentaces}

Field of Specialization

Basic science

Engineering and technology

Agriculture

[umanitie social

Te a c h i n g

Health /Medicine

Law

Total N

After Occupa % Same

8

57

0

sciences 1

100

67

0

(74)

Graduation tional Cateaorv

% Different N

92

43

100

99

0

33

100

96 (1766)

681

7

6

1138

3

3

2

1840

After Post-Gradu« Occupational Cat) %Same "«Diffé

rent

21

67

32

1

100

20

0

24

(1*1)

79

33

68

99

0

80

100

/D (450)

э t i о n ecorv N

205 42

22 275 40 106 1

591

177


Preparation of a questionnaire to collect information

relating higher education with employment:

the case of Sri Lanka

by Bikas C . Sanyal and N . V . Varghese

4 .1 Introduction

In the previous session w e h a v e discussed the data needs for a n analysis of the relationship b e t w e e n education a n d e m p l o y m e n t . W e h a v e also m e n t i o n e d the available sources of data for the m a c r o aspects of the analysis. F o r the analysis of mic ro characteristics, fresh data h a v e to b e collected through the administration of questionnaires. T h e n u m b e r of questionnaires will d e p e n d u p o n the availability of resources, the specific subject a n d the priority accorded to the issues. In the case of Sri L a n k a , four questionnaires w e r e designed to analyze the relationship b e t w e e n univeresity education a n d e m p l o y m e n t : (1) for students, (2) for e m p l o y e d graduates, (3) for employers a n d (4) for a c a d e m i c staff. T h e list of variables o n w h i c h information is n e e d e d consists of the variables to b e explained, the control variables a n d the explanatory variables based o n the hypotheses to b e tested or statements to b e verified. T h e detailed items of information to b e collected are then constructed based o n the data needs discussed in the previous section.

4 . 2 T h e i t ems in the different questionnaires

B a s e d o n the hypotheses to b e tested a n d the statements to b e verified, the list of items of the different questionnaires are given b e l o w for the four categories of subjects:

4.2.1 The student questionnaire:

Items o n the student questionnaire w e r e g r o u p e d u n d e r seventeen heads as follows:1

(a) personal characteristics,

(b) community characteristics,

(c) childhood h o m e characteristics,

(d) early educational characteristics,

(e) early education desired,

(f) early occupational characteristics,

(g) educational career decision,

(h) higher education characteristics,

(i) financing higher education,

See for a detailed list of characteristics, Table 2 of the outline on Tracer Studies.

179


(j) current employment context,

(k) opinions and attitudes about current education,

(1) preferred a r rangements for education,

(m) opinions about criteria for selection in jobs,

(n) opinions about satisfying characteristics of a job,

(0) attitude towards self-employment,

(p) current occupational expectations,

4.2.2 The graduate questionnaires

T h r e e sub categories of graduate w e r e considered to investigate the implications of their differences for the relationship b e t w e e n education a n d e m p l o y m e n t , i.e. (i) e m p l o y e d graduates, (ii) u n e m p l o y e d graduates, a n d (iii) self e m p l o y e d graduates.

4.2.2.1 Items on the employed graduate questionnaire

are g r o u p e d u n d e r the following thirteen d imens ions :





(e) early employment characteristics,

(f) educational career decision,

(g) educational characteristics,

(h) preferred educational arrangements,

(i) early occupational expectations,

(j) current occupational characteristics,

(k) method of obtaining first employment,

(1) opinions abou t m a t c h i n g of the educat ion received with the n e e d s of the job,

( m ) opinions abou t satisfying characteristics of a job.

180

Practical Exercises

4.2.2.2 Items on unemployed graduates are grouped

following twelve d imens ions :

(a) personal charcteristics,



(d) early educatinal characteristics,

(e) educatinal career decision,

(f) educational characteristics,

(g) preferred educational arrangements,

(h) employment history since graduation,

(i) opinions about recruitment m e t h o d s

(j) occupational expectations,

(k) reasons for unemployment

(1) m e a n s of livelilhood.

4.2.2.3 Items of self-employed graduates were:





(e) educational career decision,

(f) educational characteristics,

(g) preferred educational arrangements,

(h) occupational expectations,

(i) current e m p l o y m e n t characteristics

(j) reasons for se l f -employment .


4.2.3 Items on employers questionnaire can be grouped under the following seven dimensions:

(a) organisational characteristics,

(b) employee characteristics,

(c) recruitment and promotion methods,

(d) correspondence between academic and job performance

(e) selection criteria,

(f) in-service training and vacation e m p l o y m e n t opportunities,

(g) opinions about alternative arrangements for education.

4.2.4 Items on academic staff can be grouped under the following five dimensions:

(a) academic and employment characteristics of the staff,

(b) his/her opinion about the objectives and functions of the university,

(c) opinions about alternative structures and content of university education,

(d) opinions about methods of making university education more relevant to the student community,

(e) opinions about the role of the academic staff in making university education m o r e relevant to the society.

All the questionnaires are given in the following pages. With some exceptions each of the above dimensions is represented in the questinnaire by several items. In some cases, each dimension is broken d o w n into several groups; for example, 'educational career decision' in the student survey is broken d o w n into six sub-groups:

(a) reasons for pusuing higher education ( Q . 21),

(b) importance of career guidance sources (Q. 22),

(c) factors affecting choice of university ( Q . 23.4),

(d) reasons for choosing the course as first preference (Q. 25.1),

(e) reasons for changing the first preference ( Q . 25.2), and

(f) benefits expected from university education ( Q . 31 .1) .

T h e sub-dimensions are represented by a total of 2 4 closed items and at least eight o p e n items to be given by the student if relevant. S o m e of the items are of intrinsic interest in a study of university education and e m p l o y m e n t , for example , educational career decision variables are of this category.

182

Practical Exercises

4.3 Specification of variables for selection for the questionnaire

S o m e variables are interesting not in themselves for such an analysis but because of their effects on the variables of intrinsic interest. For example, childhood h o m e characteristic variables are hypothesized to have effects on the 'career path' of a student. Before the method of analysis is decided. It is important to identify which variables are of intrinsic interest and which other variables influence them.

Personal characteristics and community characteristics variables are other examples. S o m e variables appearing in an analysis of education and employment are often interesting because of their in direct effects or their effects on more direct variables. A n example of such a variable is "source of information for educational career decisions". Considerations about which variables influence others are at the heart of a conceptual framework for the analysis of education and employment. The conceptual framework which helps in articulating the hypotheses to be tested or statements to be verified serve as a guide to indicate not only which variables should be included in combination but which to use for statistical control, and which to treat as dependent or independent variables.

183-

Practical Exercises

QUESTIONNAIRE NO. 1

UNIVERSITY STUDENTS (Final Year) 1979/80

1. (1) Name :

(2) University :

(3) Year of Admission : •

(4) Faculty : . . .

(5) Course : .•••• •.• • :•_•:_•..— . . , . , . , . . . . . , . . , . _ . .

2. Present Address : . . .

3. Permanent Address :

4. (a) Date of Birth :

(¿0 Age as at (1.1.80) Years months

(Mark X in correct bracket) 5. Sex : Male ( ) Female ( )

6. Race (Mark X in the correct bracket) Low Country Sinhalese ( ) Kandyan Sinhalese ( ) Ceylon Tamil ( ) Indian Tamil { ) Ceylon Moor ( ) Indian Moor ( ) Malay ( ' ) Burgher ( ) Other ( ) Specify

Buddhism ( ) Hinduism ( ) Roman Catholism ( ) Non R . C . Christianity ( ) Islam ( ) Other ( ) Specify

7. Religion (Mark X in the correct bracket)


8. Particulars of Parents' and Siblings :

(as at the time you entered the University)

N a m e s of Siblings and Parents (including

respondent's) in order of birth

1. Father

2. Mother

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

Sex

M F

M F

Age (yrs.)

Marital Status

Married Married

Education Level

Occupation, if any

9. Annual Household Income.

1974

1979

Wages Other Income

Total.

10. Location of Permanent Parental Home :

(Give the address and Revenue District)

11. State the schools you have attended in'chfôhoiogical order with the following particulars :

1.

2.

3.

4 .

5.

6.

N a m e of School district Government/ Private

Period

From T o

Practical Exercises

12. Were the following facilities available in the School in which you studied for your G . C . E . .,Q/LeyeI..

Subjects

Science

Arts

Commerce

Upto G . C . E . .......Q/-Leuel_ .._.

Uptó G . C . E . A/. Leite!

13. (1) What is the field of study you followed in Grade 10? (Mark X in the correct bracket) Arts ( ) Science ( ) Commerce ( ) (2) Give the Subjects.

14. M o w important were the following as reasons for choosing Science subjects at the G . C . E O/Level ?

(Mark X in the appropriate cage for each of the responses)

1. I liked science. . .

2. M y parents wanted m e to study science,

3. Science education has better employment prospects.

4 . M y school advised m e to do science.

5. A n y other (specify) .

15. H o w important are the following as reasons for not choosing science subjects at the O/Level. (Mark X in the appropriate cage for each of the responses)

V , I m p , I m p , W> Imp ,

• - • " • • • " • • • ' - •

(1) I did not like science.

(2) I was not selected to study science.

(3) M y school had no facilities for the study of science.

(4) I did not realise that there were better employment prospects in science

(5) Any other (specify) •-^

V . Imp.

I

Imp. N . Imp.

16. (1) What was the medium oí instruction? (Mark X in the correct bracket) Sinhala ( ) Tarmb( ) English ( )

(2) (a) Did you sit the English Language paper at the G . C . E . Q/Level examination?

{b) If yes, indicate grade obtained.

186


17. Give details of your G . C . E . A/Level examination

N o . of sittings

1 st. Sitting

2nd. Sitting

3rd. Sitting

Year of e x a m i nation

Subjects offered G r a d e s obtained

18 . Describe extra-curricular activités in school : (Give details of activities participated in, posts/responsibilities held/awards w o n stc.)

19. If you were employed before entering the University, please give the following particulars

(1 ) Type of occupation (Post) :

(2) Status of employment (Delete what is inapplicable) Permanent/Temporary/Casual

(3) Period of empJoyment : Yrs..

(4) Monthly salary :

Mths.

187

Practical Exercises

After A/Level if you had been able to find permanent employment, would you have preferred that to entering the University ? Yes ( ) N o ( ) " Cannot say "( )

(1) Reasons for pursuing higher education (Mark in order of importance).

(a) Chances of obtaining employment better with a degree

(b) Inability to obtain employment with only G . C . E A/Level qualifications

(c) Academic interest

(d) Persuation by parents and members of the family

(e) Status considerations

(2) Any other (Specify)

H o w important were the following career guidance sources, in influencing your choice of course. (Rank in order of importance).

(1) Staff of school (

(2) Parents (

(3) Friends ( (4) General information sources (books,

)

newspapers etc.)

(5) Other students

(1) In which university are you presently studying ?

(2) W a s this your first choice ? Yes ( ) N o ( )

(3) If no, what w a s your first choice ? State the name of the university

(4) Which factors made this university your first choice ? (Mark X in the appropriate cage for each of the responses).

(a) Desired course was available only at this university.

(b) Content and teaching methods of the desired course are superior in this university.

(c) A degree from this university is more prestigious. . .

(d) This university is neareryour h o m e .

(э) This university has residential facilities.

[f) Anyotherreason (specify).

V. Imp. imp. N. imp.


24. Indicate numerically, in order of preference, the courses you applied for, on entrance to the university. W h a t is the course of study you are following n o w ?

i M a m e s of Courses you applied for N a m e of Course you are following n o w

5.

25. (1) Reasons for choosing the course you marked as first preference. (Mark X in the appropriate cage for each of the following reasons given)

(э) Pure academic interest

(b) Better employment prospects

(c) Parents' wish

(d) Status considerations

(e) Any other (specify)

V. Imp. Imp. N. Imp.

(2) If the course you are following is not the same as your first preference, w h y did you change it ? (Mark X in the appropriate bracket)

(a) You were not qualified for your first preference

{h) You were offered a scholarship to follow the present course

(c) Financial reasons . .

{d) Any other (specify)

26. H o w proficient are you in English ? (Mark X in the appropriate bracket) High ( ) Average ( Weak (

( )

) Nil (

27. In what medium did you follow your degree course ? (Mark X in the correct bracket) Sinhala ( ) Tamil ( ) English ( )

28. (1) Are you satisfied with what you have gained during your university course ? Satisfied ( ) Fairly satisfied ( ) Not satisfied ( )

(2) Give reasons for your answer

Practical Exercises

29. (1) Can you think of some work experiences which would have made your university course the richer, had you gone through the work experiences prior to starting the university course. Yes ( ) N o ( ) Cannot say ( )

(2) If yes. Give reasons for your answer, by indicating (along with the type of institution, occupation etc), a few work experiences you would like to undergo.

(3) If " n o " or "cannot say" give reasons for your answer.

30. (1) H o w important would you consider the following prosposal for improving the curricular content and teaching methods related to your course of study:

Periodical exchange of academic personnel between the university on the one side and government/semi-govcrnment/private sector institutions engaged in related fields on the other. Very important ( ) Important ( ) Not important ( )

(2) Give reasons for your answer.

31. (1) What benefits did you expsct from university education and have they been satisfied. (List benefits and mark X in the appropriate cages for each of the responses).

Benefits Fully Satisfied

Fairly Satisfied

Wot Satisfied

4 .

5.

6.

(2) D o you think that the university education you are receiving is a waste of time. Yes ( ) N o ( ) Cannot say ( ).

190


Your experience of university education has—(mark X in the appropriate cage ior each of the responses).

(1) Fulfilled your academic aspirations

(2) Developed your capacity for critica I and creative thinking

(3) Provided training in disciplined and systematic work

(4) Given scope for developing your talents

(5) Improved your professional c o m petence - . .

(6) Enhanced your ability to get on amicably with others

(7) Has improved your ability to secure employment

(8) Any other ( ) specify

V. Imp. Imp. N. Imp.

D o you think that your university course can be improved ? If Yes, state briefly the improve

ments you would suggest in terms of—

(1) Content of course :

(2) Methods of instruction :

Give particulars about your performance at the last exam. (Results) :

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Subjects Grades

'

What class do you expect to obtain at the Final Degree Exam ?

First Class/Second Upper/Second Lower/Pass

( ) " • ( • ' • ) ( ) ( )

Practical Exercises

36. To what extent were your expenses for university education met from the following sources ? (Mark X in the appropriate column).

Parents

Brothers/Sisters

Others (State)

Scholarships

Bursaries/Loans

Fulîy/Largely Marginally Nil

37. Please give the following particulars regarding your employment preferences.

(1 ) W h a t post would you prefer to secure on graduation ?

(a) A post, where course content is directly relevant ( ) N a m e the post

(b) A post, where course content may not be directly relevant ( N a m e the post

(2) Sector of employment (Rank in order of preference)

(a) Government ( )

(b) Semi-Government ( )

(c) Private ( )

(3) Location (Rank in order of preference)

(a) H o m e town village ( )

(b) Colombo ( )

(c) Other urban ( )

(d) Rural area ( )

(e) Any part ( )

38. After graduation h o w long do you think you will have to waitto get a permanent job acceptable to you ? (Mark x in the correct bracket)

(a) Less than 6 months ( )

{b) 6—12 months ( )

(?) 1—2 years ( )

(d) 2—3 years ( )

(e) More than 3 years ( )

39. In your opinion h o w important are each of the following factors for making a job attractive? (Rank in order of importance).

(1) Good income ( )

(2) Security of employment ( )

(S) Good career prospects ( )

(4) Job satisfaction ( )

(5) Ability to improve your competence ( )

(6) Use of special talents ( )

(7) Work environment ( )

(8) Further studies available ( )

(9) Any other (specify) ( )

192

40. Indicate what you think are the jobs available to a graduate w h o has followed your course.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

41. Which factors do you think, are relevant to secure a job? (Mark X in the appropriate cages for each of the responses).

V . Imp. Imp. W . Imp.

i 42. Do you intend following a post graduate course?

Yes ( ) No ( ) Not sure ( )

43. (1) Are you presently following a course of study which is outside your field of graduate study? Yes ( ) N o ( )

(2) If yes, please name the course you are following :

44. Are you presently employed? If yes, state—

(1 ) Occupation (post) : (2) Period of employment : Years Months (3) Monthly salary : (<) Status of employment : Permanent/Temporary/Casual

(Delete what is inapplicable).

(1) Academic achievements (Class)

(2) Distinction in extra-curricular activities

(3) Course followed

(4) Experience

(5) Personality

(6) Knowledge of English

(7) Letters of recommendation

(?) Personal contact with employer

(9) Political patronage

(10) Status of the school

(11) Sex ..

(12) Any other (specify)

193

Practical Exercises

QUESTIONNAIRE No . 2

UNIVERSITY GRADUATES (1974—1973)

1. Name :

2. Present Address

3. (a) Date of Birth :

(b) Age as on 01.01.1930—Years Months.

4. Sex : Male ( ) Female ( )

5. Marital Status : (Please state),

6. Race (Mark X in the correct bracket)

Low-Country Sinhalese (

Kandyan Sinhalese (

Ceylon Tamil (

Indian Tamil (

Ceylon Moor (

Indian Moor (

Malay (

Burgher (

Other (

7. Religion : (Mark X in correct bracket)

Buddhism ( )

Hinduism ( )

Roman Catholism ( )

(State),

Non-Catholic Christianity (

Islam (

Any other ( ) State

8. Employment Status :

(1) Employed ( ) Unemployed ( )

Self-employed ( ) Not seeking employment ( )

(2) If employed, state whether your employment is permanent/temporary/casual

194


9. Particulars of Parents and Siblings at the time of Graduation (Please state),

¡Mames of Siblings (including respon

dent's) in order of birth

1. Father

2. Mother

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

Sex

M

M

F

F

Age (Years)

IVîarital status

Married

Married

Education level

Occupation (if any)

10. Occupation of Parents and Annual Household Income as at-

Father

Mother

A/Level

Occupation

Annuel household

income

1st Year of University

Occupation

Annual household

income

At time of Graduation

Occupation

Annual household

income

At present

Occupation

Annual household

income

11. Was/is your Father a M e m b e r of any of the following Organisations ? (Please state)

Organisation

Political Organisation

Religious Organisation

Special Service Organi sation

Cultural Organisation

Sports and Recreation Club

Trade Union

Mame of Organisation

Membership

Holding Office OrdinaryMember

Practical Exercises

12. Location of Permanent Parental H o m e :

Give the address and state if town/village with revenue district,

13. State the schools you have attended in chronological order with the following particulars :—

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

5.

N a m e of School District State if

private or Govt.

Period

From To

14. Were the following subjects taught in the school in which you studied for your G.C.E . (0/L.) ?:

(Mark X in the appropriate cage)

Science

Arts

Commerce

Upto G . C . E .

Yes

(O/Level) Upto G . C . E

No Yes

. (A/Levc

No

15. (1 ) Which field of study did you follow at Grade 10 ?

(Mark X in the correct bracket)

Arts ( ) Science ( ) Commerce ( )

(2) Give the subjects.


16. H o w important are the following as reasons for your choice of Science at the 0 / Leve!? (MarkX in the appropriate cages for each of the responses)

(1) Because I liked science

(2) M y parents wanted m e to study science

(3) Science education has batter employment prospects

(4) M y school advised m e to do science

(5) Any other reason (specify)

17. H o w Important are the foliowing, as reasons for not choosing Science subjects at the 0/Level ? (Mark X in the appropriate cages for each of the responses)

V. Imp. Imp. Not Imp. J

(1) I did not like science

(2) I w a s not selected to study science

(3) M y school had no facilities for the study of science

(4) I did not realise the better employment prospects in science


18. What w a s the Medium of Instruction ? (Mark X in the correct bracket)

Sinhala ( ) Tamil ( ) English ( )

19. Did you sit the English Language paper at the G . C . E . (0/ Level) Examination ? Yes ( ) N o ( ) If yes indicate Grade obtained

V. Imp. Imp. Not Imp.

20. Give details of your G

N o . of sittings

1st Sitting

2nd Sitting

3rd Sitting

C.E . (A/ Level) Examination :—

Year of Examination

Subjects offered

(1) (2) (3) (4)

0) (2) (3) (4)

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Grades obtained

197

Practical Exercises

21. Describe extra-curricular activities in school.

(Give details of activities participated in, posts/responsibilities held, awards w o n , etc.)

22. If you were employed before entering the University, please give the following particulars :—

(1 ) Type of employment (occupation) :

(2) Status of employment : Permanent/Temporary/Casual.

(Delete what is inapplicable)

(3) Period of employment : , Years : , Months :

(4) Salary (monthly) :

23. After A/Level if you had been able to find permanent employment, would you have preferred that,to entering the University?

Yes ( ) N o . ( ) Cannot say ( )

24. (1) Reasons for pursuing Higher Education :

(Rank in order of importance)

(1) Chances of obtaining employment better with degree. ( )

(2) Inabilityto obtain employment with only G . C . E . (A/ Level) qualifications. ( )

(3) Academic interest. ( )

(4) Persuasion by parents and members of the family. ( )

(5) Status considerations. ( )

(2) Are there any other reasons ? (please state)

25. (1 ) In which University Campus did you study?

(2) Year of entering the University

(3) Year of Graduation :

198


26. Indicate numerically in order of preference the courses you applied ior on entrance to the

University. What is the course you followed.?

Name of course you followed. If Name of Courses you general or special degree, state

applied for the subezjts

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

27. Reasons for choosing the course you marked as first preference. (Please state).

28. (1) In what medium did you foliow your degree course?


Sinhala ( ) Tamil ( ) English ( )

(2) H o w proficient are ycu in English ?


High ( ) Average ( ) Poor ( ) W e a k ( )

2S. Detailed Results of your Final Degree Fxamination :


1st Class ( ) 2nd Class Upper Division ( )

2nd Class Lower Division ( ) 3rd Class/Pass ( )

30. Post Graduate Degree/Diploma Qualifications :—

(Mark X in the correct bracket).

(1) You are following ( ) intend following ( ) completed ( ) a post

graduate course.

(2) N a m e the post-graduate course you are following/hope to follow/have completed.

199

Practical Exercises

31. (1) Have you followed/are you following any course of study which is outside your field of graduate/post-graduate/diploma study ? (Mark X in the correct bracket).

Yes ( ) N o ( ) If Yes, please state.

(2) D o you think it is more useful than your University course ?


Yes ( ) Somewhat ( ) N o ( ) Give reasons

3?.. (1) What benefits did you expect to derive from University education and have they been satisfied ? (List benefits in order of importance, and mark X in appropriate cage).

Benefits

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

Fully satisfied

Fairly satisfied

Not satisfied

(2) D o you think the University education you received has been a waste of time ? Yes ( ) N o ( ) Cannot say ( )

Your experience of university education.— (Mark X in the appropriate cage for each of the responses given).

(1 ) Has fulfilled your academic aspirations.

(2) Has developed your capacity for critical and creative thinking.

(3) Has provided training in disciplined and

systematic work.

(4) Has given scope for developing your talents.

(5) Has improved your professional competence.

(6) Has enhanced your ability to get on amicably with others.

(7) Has improved your ability to secure employment.

(8) (Any other (specify)

V. Imp . Imp. W . I m p .

200


34. D o you think that your university course needs improvement? If yes, state briefly the improvements you would suggest in terms of—

(1) Content :—

(2) Methods of Instructions :—

35. (1 ) Can you think of some work experience which would have m a d e your university course, the richer, had you gone through the work experience prior to starting the university course. ?

Yes ( ) N o ( ) Cannot say ( )

(2) If Yes, give reasons for your answer by indicating (along with the type of institution, occupation, etc.) a few work experiences you would like to undergo.

(3) If 'no' or cannot say,' give reasons for your answer.

36. H o w important would you consider the following proposal for improving the curricular content and teaching methods related to your course of study.?

(1) Introducing arrangements for exchange of academic staff between the university and specialist and research staff, working in related fields in the government, semi-government and private sector institutions.

Very important ( ) Important ( ) Not important ( )

(2) Give reasons for your answer

37. If you were employed, whilst following the degree course, state-

(1 ) Type of employment (Occupation)

(2) Period of employment :

201

Practical Exercises

38. Please give the following particulars regarding your employment preferences at the time oí graduation (Rank in order of importance).

(1 ) (a) A post where course content is directly relevant ( ). N a m e the post :

(b) A post where course content m a y not be directly relevant ( )

N a m e of post:

(2) Sector of employment (Rank in order of preference)

(a) Government (b) Semi-Government (c) Private

(3) Location : (Rank in order of preference)

(¿/) H o m e town/village (6) Colombo (c) Urban area (d) Rural area (e) Any part of the country

39. (1) In your opinion, h o w important are each of the following factors for making a job attractive? (Rank in order of importance)

(1) Good Income (2) Security of employment (3) Good career prospects (4) Job satisfaction (5) Improvement of your competence (6) Use of special talents (7) Work environment (8) Further studies available

(2) Any other factors (state)

Note If employed, answer questions 40 — 47 If unemployed, answer questions 48 — 57 If self-employed, answer questions 58 — 62

FOR EMPLOYED GRADUATES

40. (1) N a m e of organisation and post held

(2) Sector of employment (Mark X in correct bracket) Government ( ) Semi-Government (

(3) Location of place of employment : Colombo ( ) Other Urban (

(4) Monthly salary Rs

(5) Nature of employment

) Private ( )

) Colombo Sub-urban ( ) Rural (

Permanent ( ) Temporary ( ) Casual (

202

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Sector of Employment

Occupation (Post)

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Permanent

Private

Semi-Gout.

Га 0 О

i

1 1 i

1 1

i !

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1 1 1 i

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203

Practical Exercises

43. (1) H o w did you get to know about your present job? (Mark X in appropriate cage)

(1 ) Newspaper advertisement

(2) Government Gazette

(3) Personal contact with employer

(4) Other employees

(5) Friends/Relations —

(6) University

(7) Any other (specify) :

V. Imp. Imp. JM.Imp.

(2) H o w did you secure your present job ?

44. In your opinion, h o w important were the following factors in securing the present job? (Mark X in appropriate cage for each of tha factors).

(1) Previous experience

(2) Academic achievements

(3) Distinction in extra-curricular activities

(4) Course followed

(5) Personality

(6) KnowledgeofEnglish

(7) Letters of recommendation ..

(3) Personal contact with employer

(9) Political patronage

(10) Status of the school

1(11) Sex ! ;i'12) Any other (please specify) . . i

Very Important Jmportant

Not Important


45. If this is not your first job, h o w important were the following reasons for moving into the present job ? (Mark X in the appropriate cages for each of the given responses).

(1) Better salary

(2) Better promotion prospects

(3) Security of employment

(4) Job satisfaction

(5) Greater scope to use knowledge/skills acquired through University education in job situation

(6) Uses m y acquired additional qualifications

(7) Job, more in keeping with graduate status

(8) Better work environment

(9) Any other (please specify)

46. (1) H o w satisfied are you with your present job? (Mark X in the correct bracket).

Very satisfied ( ) Fairly satisfied ( ) Not satisfied ( )

(2) Give reasons for your answer.

47 . (1 ) H o w useful is the content of your university course, in the performance of your present

job ? (Mark X in the correct bracket)

Very useful ( ) Fairly useful ( ) Not useful ( )

(2) H o w useful is what you have acquired in the university, outside the course of study

in the performance of your present job? (Such as sports, cultural activities, union

activities etc).

Very useful ( ) Fairly useful ( ) Not useful ( )

FOR GRADUATES PRESENTLY UNEMPLOYED

48. (1 ) Are you presently seeking employment ?

Yes ( ) No ( )

(2) If not, give reasons for not seeking employment

V . Imp. Imp. N . l m p .

205

Practical E

xercises

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206


50. If you have been self-employed give details: regarding the"following :-

(1) Employment type (please state) :

(2) Monthly income :

(3) Period of self-employment :

51. (1) Have you applied for any permanent posts? (Mark X in correct bracket).

Yes ( ) N o ( ).

(2) If Yes—please give the following information :—

Posts

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Month and Year of application

Month Year

-

Whether called for the interview

(MarkX)

Yes No

52.

53.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

Wha t were the means by which you learnt about the jobs you applied for? (Mark X in the appropriate cages for each of the responses).

(1) Newspapers

(2) Govt. Gazette Notifications

(3) Personal contacts with employers

(4) Through friends and/or relatives . .

(5) Through other employees

(6) Through the University


Have you declined any permanent jobs for which you applied ? If yes, specify the jobs, and give reasons for declining.

I V. Imp Imp. N.lmp.

Jobs Reasons

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

Practical Exercises

(1 ) Since graduation were there any vacancies appropriate to your qualifications for which you did not apply? (Mark X in correct bracket)

Yes( ) No ( ) • • • • • : • " •-- .

(2) If yes, list the jobs and give reasons for not applying.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

0)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

In your view w h y have you failed to obtain permanent employment? (Mark X in appropriate cage for each of the reasons given below).

(1 ) Poor performance at the degree exai

(2) Poor performance attests/interviews.

.(3.)__Low standard of .English.

(4) Sex discrimination. • ••

T5)""DÎs^rimînïtibn'ihte>1rrs75fracKcàltè,*rèirg"io"n, politics (strike off what is inappropriate).

(6) L o w status of school.

V. Imp.

— ™ - —

Imp.

- - • -

— — ™ ~ = - « - .

N . i m p .

---- —

- — — -

(7) Family background.

(8) Any other reasons (please specify)

(1 ) D o you think youi chances of getting employment would have been better, had you not

gone into the university ? (Mark X in the correct bracket)

Yes ( ) N o ( ) Cannot say ( )

(2) If Yes — give reasons for your answer.

Are you in receipt of a regular income that m a k e s you self-reliant financially ?

(1) Yes( ) N o ( )

(2) If Yes, give the following details :

(а) Source of income : (б) Average monthly income :

(3) If no, w h o supports you ? (Mark X in the correct bracket) (a) parents ( ) (¿) brothers ( (c) sisters ( (d) relatives ( (e) spouse ( (0 others (

(please specify)


r-OR SELF-EMPLOYED GRADUATES

58. Give the following information regarding ssif-employment :

(1) Type of self-empioyment :

(2) Initial capital investment :

(3) Source of initial capital investment (Mark X in correct bracket)

(a) family ( )

{b) persona! income from previous employment ( )

(c) private assets ( )

(d) loans ( )

(4) Income (average monthly-gross income)

59. Besides your University degree do you possess any occupational skills or professional qualifications and expertise which heiped you to establish and manage your o w n enterprise?

Yes ( ) No ( )

If yes, give details :

60. If you are offered permanent employment, either in the Government or private sector, would you accept? (please mark X in the appropriate cage for both sectors)

Government sector

Semi-Government

Private Sector

Yes No Undecided

S1. Wha t factors prompted you to go ir. for self employment :

209

Practical E

xercises

Period Nature of Employment Sector of Employment о From Salary Casual Tempo

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210


Q U E S T I O N N A I R E Nc . 3

U N I V E R S I T Y A C A D E M I C S T A F F

Part I 1 Name :

Address (Official) :

University & Dept :

Designation :

Academic and or/professional qualifications :

Past/current additional posts held in the University :

Period of Service : (э) From : To :

(b) Number of Years :

Part H 1. " O n e of the major problems the universities are faced with today, is to reconcile the classical

aims of university education with the present day demands of designing university education to meet national development needs."

Focussing your attention on the problem posed above, please comment with regard to each of the following :—

(a) In your opinion should the universities of Sri Lanka compromise on the classical aim of cultivating intellectual excellence?

(b) Is there a possibility of reconciling these two aims within a single institution ?

211

Practical Exercises

(г:) Would you consider specific career training (apart from the traditional professions) to be within the orbit of university education? . . . . . . .

{d) If the answer to part (c) above is in the affirmative, what are the obstacles that you would envisage in attaining this end?

(?) W h a t changes in the University structure, would you advocate to overcome these obstacles?

2. . (э) W h a t should be the role of the universities in the provision of career information/guidance with regard to course selection and employment possibilities? Please state briefly.

{b) Are the present universities performing this function? (Mark X in the appropriate bracket)

Yes ( ) N o ( ) To s o m e extent ( )

(c) If not, in your view h o w can the universities play an active role in career guidance ?

212


(a) In your opinion to wh3t extent have the universities contributed to the problem of

graduate unemployment in the country?

{bj H o w c-:n the universities help minimis? this problem?

Part (il

1. H o w important зге the foüowinc, proposals put forward with the intention of diversifying the

scope and content of university education? (Please respond with reference to your o w n

field of study by marking X in the appropriate bracket and giving reasons for эа-ch of your

responses).

(a) Introduction of n e w courses and specialisations in keeping with changing development

and scientific trends in the country.

Very Important ( ) Important ( ) Not Important ( )

Reasons for your answer :

(b) Re-designing of curricula in order to achieve the twin objective of—(¡) Imparting of an

academic discipline and (ii) A n employment-oriented training.

Very Important ( ) Important ( ) Not Important (

Reasons for your answer :

>

(c) Re-designing oí curricula in all courses to include a definite development component.

Very Important ( ) Important ( ) Not Important ( )

Reasons of your answer :

213

Practical Exercises

2. In the light of the experience gained from conducting Programmes of Development Studies in two of the University Campuses, ple2se c o m m e n t on the following :

N.B. Please répond if this question is directly related to your field of studies. Others may respond if they wish to.

(a) W h a t were the objectives of Development Education ?

(b) Were these objectives realised ?

(c) To what extent did these courses provide a Development Education?

(с') If you think that the Development Study Courses have failed, please give reasons for their failure?

(s) Is there a case for continuing these Courses?

214


What consequences will the following arrangements have on the theoretical and practical content of university education, 3nd on the position of your university, vis-a-vis the larger community? (Please c o m m e n t with regard to each of the following proposals).

(a) Participation oí specialists outside the university in the formulation of university course curricula.

(b) The exchange of academic staff in the university with others in parallel positions in government and private sector institutions for short periods, for purposes of engaging ¡n research and teaching in the university and outside.

(c) Engaging qualified specialists from outside the university as visiting lecturers.

(a) D o you consider it necessary that students selected to follow a specialised course should go through a period of relevant work experience prior to starting their course.

(Mark X in the appropriait; bracket).)

Very necessary ( ) Necessary ( ) Not necessary ( )

(b) W h a t are the advantages/disadvantages of such a programme, its feasibility fpt* courses in your department and its implications for employment? Please c o m m e n t :

(з) D o you believe that the present system of evaluation adopted by your university needs improvement? Yes ( ) N o ( )

(b) If yes, c o m m e n t briefly on the shortcomings (if any) of the present evaluation procedures and suggest alternative procedure applicable to your discipline to overcome these deficiencies.

Practical Exercises

Part IV

1 (a) At the time of entry into the univarsit/, are the students adequately equipped with the knowledge ar;d skil's necessary to сэрз with the demands of their courses of istudies? (Mark X in the appropriate bracket). Very well equipped ( ) Satisfactorily equipped ( ) Not equipped ( )

(b) If not, what are these inadequacies ?

(c) State what you think are the reasons for these inadequacies.

(d) Suggest any improvements that can be made both at the secondary school level and in the universities to alleviate these inadequacies.

2. (a) H o w important would you consider each of the following problems facing university students today, which are likely to hinder the full enjoyment of the benefits of university education.

(Please mark X in the appropriate bracket).

(i) Financial difficulties. Very important ( ) Important ( ) Not important ( ).

(ii) Unsatisfactory residential facilities.—-Very Important ( ) Important ( ) Not Important ( )

(iii) Insufficient knowledge of English.—Very Important ( ) Important ( ) Not important ( )

(iv) Shortage of academic staff.—Very Important ( ) Important ( ) Not Important ( )

(v) Lack of communication between students and teachers.—Very Important ( ) Important ( ) Not Important ( )

(iv) Any other problems — please specify,

216


(b) Please c o m m e n t briefly with special reference to your Faculty/Department, on any one or all of the above problems, indicating the magnitude of the problem (s) and the measures that are being taken/should be taken by the University authorities to overcome them.

3. (a) Is there a possibility of Final Year undergraduate students participating in research activities related to their course of studies?

( b) Would such participation instil in them a taste for research and practical work and improve

their ability to apply their theoretical knowledge in the analysis of concrete problems? Please c o m m e n t :

(a) Apart from the conventional teaching programmes what other academic programmes

would you suggest in order to stimulate interest a m o n g students for greater participa

tion in the academic activities of the university?

\b) D o you think that, in your o w n w a y , you have been abl« to stimulate such interest a m o n g students, during your career as a University teacher? Please elucidate.

217

Practical Exercises

5. (?) H o w effective have been the existing programmes under formal and non-formal education sectors in the university, in inculcating in students the following attributes ?

(Mark X in the appropriate cage).

Attributes

(i) General Competence

(ii) Initiative

(iii) Discipline

(iv) Creativity

(v) Leadership qualities

(vi) National Consciousness

(vit) Adaptability

(viii) Any other — please specify . .

Very effective Effective Not effective

I

(b) If you consider the existing programmes ineffective, what other programmes would you

sugaest to inculcate these attributes in the students. ?

5. (г) W h a t should be the role and functions of student bodies in the university?

(b) H o w effective have they been —

(i) As a forum of discussion of student problems?

218


(ii) As a mechanism for establishing close links with the university administration, for discussion of issues related to the improvement of general conditions of life in the University?

(iii) A s a medium of promoting social consciousness, leadership and other socially useful attributes?

Since it is generally accepted that universities should produce the future leaders of society, should politics be precluded from the activities of the University? Please c o m m e n t .

Part V

1. (a) Does the existing Departmental and Faculty framework, permit your participation, both meaningfully and actively in the following academic activities?

(s) Curriculum Development

(b) Teaching

(c) Evaluation

(d) Research

(5) D o you think that the above mentioned academic activities are taking place in isclation-

(i) without any awareness of developments related to these areas taking place in other universities either in our country or abroad ?

(ii) without due reference to developments taking place in the soicio economic, political and cultural scene in our country?

219

Practical Exercises

D o you think that your university should conduct periodical evaluations of its o w n objectives of higher education and performance in relation to national aims and needs? Please comment .

3. Are there any constraints and problems which in your opinion tend to restrict your desire to give your best to your profession? Please state.

Signature :


QUESTIONNAIRE No. 4

EMPLOYER'S QUESTIONNAIRE

Parti

1. N a m e & address of organization :

2 Nature of activities : (Mark X in the appropriate bracket/brackets)

Service ( ) Sales ( ) Production ( ) Research ( ) Any other ( )

Please state

3. Is your organization — (Mark X in the appropriate bracket)

Private ( ) Semi-Govt. ( ) Govt. ( )

4. Total number of employees in your organization :

221

Practical Exercises

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222


fi. Give the approximate number of university graduâtes of the different fields in the follow'mi occupational categories : —

Occupational Categories

Directors/Heads of Departments

Senior executives/staff

Junior executive/staff . .

Clerical & allied grades..

Supervisory

Any other (please specify)

Professional

-

.

Science Arts

-

7. (n) D o you have any graduates in posts which do not need tho degree as a minimum qualification ? (Mark X in the appropriate bracket)

Yes ( ) N o ( )

(b) If Yes. please give the following information with regard to these graduates.

Post held Degree (Course) N u m b e r

Male Female

-

8. Does employment in a post below graduate level affect the work performance of those graduates? Please comment.

9. The percentage of Graduates in your organization w h o are proficient in English is— (Mark X in the appropriate bracket)

Less than 25% 2510 50 % 50 to 75 % Over 75%

223

Practical Exercises

Part II

10. What are th3 posts/grades in your organization open to university graduates seeking first employment? Indicate against each post/grade, the salary scales offered to graduates selected for these posts.

Posts

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

Salary scales

• , Л ' .

11. (a) W h e n recruiting personnel for certain posts do you make a distinction between graduates and non-graduates?

Yes ( ) N o ( )

(b) If yes, please indicate posts in your organization that are reserved exclusively for graduates.

Indicate against each post the salary scales offered to graduates w h o are selected for these posts. • . _ , - • . •

Posts

(1)

(2)

• ( 3 ) : • ' , • _ ' . . . - , < - . . . - . . • •

(4)

(5)

Salary scales

• • • • • ' • ; : - - ' . . - • • • • • - . - • • :

12. W h y do you require graduates for posts indicated in questions 10 and 11 ?


(a) W h a n graduates apply for posts for which lower educational qualifications are stipulated do you give preference to graduates?

Yes ( ) No ( )

(b) Give reasons, specifying posts to which your answer is relevant.

v'Vhat are the sources used to advertise vacancies for university graduates by your organization ? (Rank in order of importance).

Newspaper notices

Govt. Gazette

Consultation with university st3ff

Personal contacts with potential

employees

Through other employees

Any othüt

(

( (

(

(

(

)

)

)

)

)

)

(Please specify) :

(¿) W h a t are the chief methods by which you select university graduates for employment in your organization. (Please rank in order of importance).

Interview ( )

Written test ( )

Public Service Commission ( )

Job Bank ( )

Recommendations of University staff ( )

Recommendations by Ministers/politicians ( )

A n y other ( )

Please specify :

(b) !n case you combine more than one method please indicate, which of the above method?; are combined.

Practical Exercises

16. H o w important .are the following criteria for the selection of graduates for professional/

administrative job¿? (Mark X in the appropriate cage for each of the given responses)

Selection Criteria

(1) Subject of degree

(2) Academic performance

(3) Experience

(4) Knowledge of English

(5) Personality

(6) Status of school

(7) Status of the family

(8) Letters of recommendation

(9) Sports and other extra-curricular activities

(10) Age

(11) Sex

(12) Religion

(13; Ethnicity

(14) Performance at test/interview


V . imp. Imp. Not Imp.

17. (a) What criteria do you take into consideration when making promotions among graduates?

Please specify:

(b) (i) W h e n promoting persons to posts for which both graduates and non-graduates axe eligible, do you give preference to graduates? (Please mark X in the appropriate bracket).

Yes ( ) N o ( )

(ii) Please give reasons for your answer


18. (a) D o you have any in-service training programmes for university graduates ? Yes ( ) N o ( )

(b) If yes, describe briefly, stating the type of training given, posts ror which graduates are trained etc.

19. (э) D o you offer vacation employment to university students? Yes ( ) N o ( )

(b) If Yos. specify to which category of students you offer vacation employment.

Part 18S

20. As an employer of graduates or as one w h o is in contact with graduates, what can you say about the general work performance of graduates employed in your organization? (Some comments evaluating the performance of different categories of graduates will be useful).

227

Practical Exercises

21. un the experience gained by you from employing university graduates, h o w effective do 'you think are the Forma! and Non-formal educational programmes in the university, in inculcating in the graduates the following attributes? (Mark X in the appropriate cage in respect of each of the given responses).

Attributes

(1) General cornoetence

(2) Initiative

(3) Discipline

(-Î) Creativity

(5) Leadership

(6) National consciousness

(7) Adaptability

(3) Responsibility

Very satisfactory

Satisfactory Not satisfactory

22. What are your views on the relevancy of the Course content to the specific job needs of your organization ?

23. If you are of the view that there is very little correspondence between course content and job needs, what reforms in the content and teaching methods of university education would you suggest to make them more responsive to the job needs of your organization ?

24. From your experience of employing university graduates, pisase comment on the statement " Good performance at exams does not necessarily lead to better v/ork performance?"

228


Part IV

25. Please indicate below in the appropriate columns, the numbers oí univertsiy graduates from the following course groupings which (i) your organization employed during the fast 5 years and (ii) hopes to employ within the next 5 years.

Courses

(1) Fngineermg

(2) Medical ' . .

(3) Dentistry . .

(4) Veterinary

(5) Architecture

(6) Agriculture

(7) Law

(8) Science (Bio)

(9) Science (Physical)

(10) Social Sciences

(11) Public Finance & Taxation

(12) Estate Management & Valuation

(13) Commerce

(14) Education . .

(15) Humanities

Last 5 years Next 5 years

I

Signature :

Nan:e & Designation

Date

229

Practical Exercises

Appendixes

231

Appendix A

Inaugural session

The training seminar on education, employment and work was inaugurated on 1 September 1987. At the outset, Dr. R . P . Singhal, Executive Director, NIEPA welcomed the chief guest, Shri J. Veeraraghavan, Secretary, Ministry of H u m a n Resource Development, Government of India and the participants and distinguished faculty of the International Institute for Educational Planning, Unesco, Paris and P R O U A P , Bangkok and gave a brief introduction to the National Institute of Educational Planning and Administration. H e observed that N I E P A is an autonomous body set up by the Government of India as the national apex institution in the field of educational planning and administration. The beginning of the Institute can be traced to the year 1962 when the Asain Institute of Educational planning and Administration was set up by the Government of India under a ten year agreement with Unesco for the purpose of training senior educational planners and administrators in the Asian Region. O n the recommendation of the Indian Education Commission (1966) the Asian Region was taken over by the Government of India on the expiry of the agreement with Unesco and redesignated as the National Staff College for Educational Planners and Administrators. In May 1979 the Institute assumed its present name. During the past 25 years of its existence the Institute has rendered valuable services in the area of educational planning and administration, not only to the Union and State Governments and other organizations with the country but also to several other countries particularly of the Third World. The main areas of activity, Dr. Singhai observed, consist of:(a) training of educational planners and administrators, (b) research, (c) diffusion on innovations, and (d) consultancy services.

Professor K . M . Bahauddin, Dean (Training) N I E P A gave a brief account of the training activities of the Institute. H e observed that during the year 1985-86, the Institute organized 57 programmes, of these 54 programmes were at national and sub-national level, and three were international programmes. In addition, three international programmes started during 1984-85 were completed during the year. The number of participants and programme person days was 1,551 and 21,862 respectively which was a record achieved in any single year since the inception of the Institute. Besides the two regular programmes of the Institute, e.g., (a) Diploma in Educational Planning and Administration for district Education Officers of India and (b) International Diploma in Educational Planning and Administration for Officers from other countries, the Institute organizes several programmes for senior educational administrators and planners in the areas of school education and non-formal education, technical and vocational education, higher education, educational management, educational finance, educational technology etc. The Institute also conducts programmes at the request of organizations like International Institute for Educational Planning (HEP), Paris, United States Educational Foundation in India (USEFI), Unesco and some other third world countries from the Asian and the Pacific region. The present programme, Professor K . M . Bahauddin observed, was one such programme organized in collaboration with H E P , Paris and P R O U A P , Bangkok and hoped that this seminar would provide a forum to the participants to exchange views and to learn from one another's experience.

Professor Sylvain Lourié, Director П Е Р gave a brief description of the training activities of the International Institute for Educational Planning, Paris and highlighted the major thrust areas of the Institute's research programmes in its Medium-Term Plan. He observed that IIEP's priority task was to make available to planning personnel its capacity for advanced professional training and upgrading. The substance of everything taught at

232


IIEP derived directly from empirical studies conducted under normal educational conditions. For example, a study in a given country served as a basis for the preparation of training materials for an intensive course held in the same country, and intended principally for that country's educational officials. The IIEP's training activities included the Annual Programme covering an academic year; short specialized programmes (intensive courses, workshops and seminars), and individualized programmes.

During the present Medium-Term Plan of the Institute (1984-89), the main thrust of the Institute's research is devoted to(a)reaction of educational and training systems to various scientific and technological development policies; (b) nature of the diversified educational field; which, beyond the formal school system, comprises a variety of out-of-school and non-formal structures and programmes and the role and function of educational planning in the face of this diversity; and (c) the role of educational planning in the decision-making and implementation process.

Explaining the purpose of the 3-week training programme, Professor Lourié said that the purpose of the seminar was to review prevalent understanding about techniques of educational planning, depict the likely pattern of education employment linkages in the South Asian region in view of the modern production technology and identify policy-choices and suggest strategies for intervention. H e concluded by saying that the quality and effectiveness of educational planning led primarily in the hands of those responsible for designing and implementing programmes or plans for the development, improvement and reform of education; there were no universal solutions to problems faced by each country which made it imperative that those responsible for educational planning must have a thorough knowledge of the educational field and of its relationships with other social activities so as to be able to determine the possibilities of educational development and its limits in their countries.

M r . J. Veeraraghavan, Secretary, Ministry of H u m a n Resource Development while inaugurating the seminar remarked, "As we look not only at the Taj Mahal's super structure but also its intricate ornamentation, we must similarly treat the linkage between education and employment, we should engage in micro analysis as well as examination of the foundation". M r Veeraraghavan emphasized that the thrust of the Seminar should be on manpower planning and in giving specific detailed analysis of skill requirements and educational imperatives for economic development. The three main factors necessitating deliberations on a topic of such significance were: (a) the ballooning population; (b) low levels of per capita income; and (c) lower proportion of labour force in industrial and service sectors as compared to the agricultural sector.

H e stressed that increasing population was a main problem and illustrated the point by noting that the world population had increased from 1.8 billion in 1965 to 2.8 billion in 1985; India contributed 271 million to the one billion increase during that period as against 322 million by China and 400 million by the rest of the world. H e said that by the year 2000, people between the age of 15-64 were expected to increase in absolute size from 1.6 billion in 1981 to 2.1 billion in 2000, and would have to be absorbed into either educational institutions (secondary or higher) or in work places. One third of them were expected to be in urban areas whereas the majority was expected to reside in rural areas.

Looking at national income figures, particularly per capita incomes most of the countries in the E S C A P region were in the low income category with an average of $270 per year (1980). However, wide variations were seen in the region in terms of per capita income, e.g., Malaysia $2010, Thailand $800, China $310, Pakistan $380 and India $270. Comparison with the rest of the world showed even wider variations with middle income

233

Appendixes

countries having a per capita annual income of $1,290; high income oil exporting countries of $9,800, industrial market economies of all $11,810 and U S A of $16,900. Though industrial market economies were well' endowed in terms of per capita income and the labour force was expected to increase at an annual rate of 8per cent only between now and 2000, the labour force in India was expected to increase at an annual rate of 1.9 percent during the same period; the current rate being 2.3 per cent per annum. Not only this, the distribution of labour force among primary, secondary and tertiary sectors was lopsided in favour for many sectors.

Explaining the contribution of education to development in terms of dynamic change and improving productivity, he emphasized on the education employment linkage and the provision of skills in the economy. H e stated that India in its Seventh Five Year Plan had made long term projection of economic growth and with appropriate assumptions about technology, manpower projections could be arrived at, which would help in directing the flow of students in the educational institutions. M r . Veeraraghavan ended by saying that the objective of the programme was to train participants in techniques for relating educational development to employment needs in their regional context. He hoped that the seminar would bring out alternate strategies to link education with employment.

In his Chairman's remarks Professor Satya Bhushan, Director NIEPA gave an overview of the major dimensions, problems and issues in national policies of Education in the E S C A P regin and linked them to the various approaches and techniques utilized in the process of educational planning. The Asian Model of Development Education, he emphasized, had clearly recognized the human dimension as the basic element in educational planning. Countries embarking on the path of development placed increasing demand for development of specialized manpower and consequently educational institutions were faced with this very essential function of supplying the needed manpower in their economies. O n the operational front, therefore, message for educational planners was two fold: (a) expansion of educational institutions: both general as well as technical/ professional institutions and (b) restructuring of the courses in a maner that growing demand for relating education with productivity were adequately met.

Based on their early experience of educational planning, Professor Satya Bhushan pointed out, the countries of the E S C A P region were trying to recast their educational policies in the light of new developments in the economic sphere. These countries clearly recognized that education was to play the traditional role of providing trained manpower to the organized sector and also that the linkage between education and employment could not be thought exclusively in terms of the organized sector. In view of the fact that not more than 10 per cent of the labour force was working in the organized sector, the unorganized sector had become the major absorbing sector for the unemployed and the underemployed labour force and, therefore; an educational planner could not divert himself from this major task of relating education with productivity in the unorganized sector. Professor Satya Bhushan emphasized that the present workshop could deliberate on issues relating to (a) linkages between education and employment in the unorganized sector so that the necessary changes in educational policy could get related to the tasks being faced in each developing country and (b) structural changes that are taking place in developing economies and an assessment of manpower requirements in various sectors, both private as well as public enterprises.

The problems faced by countries in the E S C A P region were numerous. Giving an overview of various approaches to educational planning, Professor Satya Bhushan cited estimation of manpower requirements and matching demand with supply due to the inherent limitations of the approach, as well as the advent of technology as certain prob-

234


lems being faced by these countries in formulating their educational plans. N e w technology had its own implications for the employment situation and demanded a different kind of manpower to suit its requirements. The process thus involved some elements of both de-skilling as well as of re-skilling. There were no universal solutions for this problem of relating education to technological needs but they were closely related to the structure of education prevailing in the country. Another major area that was important in educational planning was the relative emphasis on R & D component. Education played an increasingly important role in development of R & D . Professor Satya Bhushan concluded by saying that the present educational system called for drastic changes in respect of liking education tonational needs, emphasis needed to be shifted from macro to micro level understanding of several issues relating to educational planning, suitable strategies needed to be formulated for imparting skills to the society at large and greater research emphasis needed to be placed on the unorganized and the informal sectors. He hoped that certain solutions in the form of suggestions regarding strategies that could be formulated and implemented and changes that could be brought about in developing countries, would emerge from the proceedings of the workshops.

Dr. Bikas Sanyal proposed a formal vote of thanks at the end of the session.

235

Appendix В

Country Papers *

B.l Afghanistan

B.l.l Educational outlook

Since 1987 the Government has adopted measures to develop national progressive education, eradicate illiteracy, implement free and compulsory primary education, expand free secondary education, high vocational and technical education and improve the qualifications of teachers.

B.l.2 Employment situation

In the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, graduates from universities, higher educational institutes and vocational schools are absorbed and employed in one of the ministries according to their qualifications and experience. In Afghanistan, according to the Constitution, citizens have the right to choose their occupation and be admitted to state employment. As a result, the problem of unemployment does not exist in the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. Because of shortage of educated people in the country and also because of a well organized system of planning all higher vocational educational institution graduates are absorbed in various types of jobs in the Government sector.

During the discussion clarifications were sought on the priority given to education by the government, education-employment relationship, introduction of career guidance and counselling services etc. It was observed that due to lack of availability of detailed data on education and employment in the country, only rough estimates could be made. In 1981 the Government spent about 1.8 per cent of the Gross National Product on education. O n the total government expenditure, about 6.4 per cent was the expenditure on education. Regarding the relationship between outputs of the educational system and the employment market, it was noted that a centralized system of recruitment for government jobs was in operation in the country. The State Government Planning Department was informed about the vacancies in various enterprises/industrial establishments. Graduates of various educational institutions applied for jobs to the Planning Department and were given jobs according to their qualification and specializations. The was a system of assured employment for the educated. As for directing students in areas of national importance, career guidance and counselling services oriented students in areas of critical shortages. Admission to such courses, however, was through a system of competitive examinations.

It was generally felt that the country had been trying to implement some radical socio-political reforms in the recent past and the education system undoubtedly played an important role.

This document, prepared by Ranjana Srivastava, contains an abridged version of country papers along with some discussion in the Seminar.

236


В .2 Bangladesh

According to estimates by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (1983), the total population of the country stood at 100.6 million. T h e m a n p o w e r Survey of 1980 conducted by B B S estimated that about 31 per cent of the total population belonged to the civilian labour force. It is expected that the labour force will increase to 3p million by 1990.

A b o u t one-third of the total labour force in the country is unemployed. T h e main reason for such high level of unemployment is the stagnating agriculture, the n e w seed-based technology has not spread up to an expected level to mitigate the rural unemployment problem. Moreover , significant gap has been noticed between the creation of job opportunities and the growth of labour force. During the period 1980-1985, roughly 0.6 million joined the rank of the unemployed.

B.2.1 Educated unemployed

T h e latest data on educated unemployed is available for the year 1978. T h e survey conducted in 1978 revealed a worsening of the unemployment rate. T h e unemployment rate showed an increase from 44 percent in 1973 to 48 per cent in 1978. In general, it revealed high unemployment rate a m o n g the educated though in certain skills and specializations there were s o m e shortages. T h e unemployment rates for S S C and H S C holders were 62 percent and 97 per cent respectively. U n e m p l o y m e n t situation of the generalists was seen to be deteriorating.

T h e most important factor contributing to the problem is the slow growth of the economy and particularly of the industrial sector.

T h e Third Five Year Plan (1985-90) adopts a n u m b e r of strategies with regard to educational planning. T h e plans lims to:

(a) Increase the enrolment of primary age group children from around 60 per cent to about 70 per cent by 1990;

(b) Reduce the existing supply-demand gap in the science related applied profession; and

(c) Continuation of the p r o g r a m m e of non-formal vocational education in the ' c o m m u nity school' to train rural boys and girls in self employment skills; etc., besides other measures to increase the literacy level and participation of w o m e n in educational programmes .

Issues raised during the discussion related to eliciting of detailed information on different aspects of education and employment situation in the country, the occupational distribution, the prospects of balancing d e m a n d and supply of educated m a n p o w e r in the near future etc. It was observed that the mismatch between d e m a n d for and supply of different types of educated people in the m e d i u m - t e r m (1985-90) was expected to continue. T h e Third Plan (1985-90) had projected that 5.1 million person year of additional employment would be created and about 67 per cent of this additional employment would be in agriculture. T h e agriculture sector is expected to absorb mainly unskilled and the illiterates and therefore, in the training of these potential employees the education system has a small role to play. It was also felt that in terms of sheer numbers the additional n u m b e r of jobs of agronomists, agricultural technicians, extension agents etc. would not be significant, particularly w h e n compared with the additional jobs of 3.42 million in the sector, but the critical role of this sector is beyond debate.

237

Appendixes

B . 3 B h u t a n

Bhutan faces no serious problem of unemployment or educated unemployment . T o data, each person w h o has received s o m e formal education has found employment mostly in the government sector according to their qualifications. Education receives a high priority in the national plans and lately there has been a great concern about the possibility, in the near future of a significant n u m b e r of aspiring and qualified personnel for various types of jobs in the K i n g d o m . This has started manifesting itself in terms of escalation of educational qualifications for lower and m e d i u m level jobs.

Available statistics regarding the m a n p o w e r employed in various sectors in 1986 revealed that of the total n u m b e r employed in the K i n g d o m , 64 per cent were employed in civil services, 20 per cent in public, joint sectors and autonomous bodies and the remaining 16 per cent in the private sector.

T h e government is n o w taking steps to have a proper m a n p o w e r assessment. T h e country's concern is not so m u c h for the higher educated personnel but for secondary school leavers and the dropouts of the formal school system.

In the discussion that followed, details were sought on the educational status of the employed and the steps taken to formulate a m a n p o w e r assessment policy. It was observed that the government was considering two important policy decisions:

(a) T o m a k e a comprehensive assessment of m a n p o w e r requirements for a reasonable timespan; and

(b) T o link enrolment at the higher and possibly the secondary level of education to this assessment. Total requirements of jobs that have been estimated between 1987-1992 are of the order of 11,151 which would require trained manpower for civil services, major industries, industrial establishments, trading establishments etc.

S o m e doubts were expressed regarding accomplishment of optimistic goal of producing educated manpower according to the future needs of the Kingdom. It was also observed that Bhutan's educational system being highly selective with limited entry into higher education motivations would have an enormous impact on school leavers and dropouts and could generate unemployment at the secondary level although the phenomenon of unemployment was not an open one. However, in the long run, the Kingdom would have to increase the demand to meet the increasing supply of educated labour.

B . 4 Ch ina

Education in China is expected to serve the nation's socialist construction. T h e objectives of all types of schools in the country are to impart education according to the needs of the modernization drive and other development. For country's social and economic developmen t in the 1990s and even in the earlier period of the 21st century, all schools are expected to train two big contingents of n e w and qualified personnel at different levels and in specialized disciplines w h o would adhere to the socialist direction. T h e increase in the central and local government's investment in education will be higher than the increase in the regular revenues of the government and it is planned that investment per child will also be increased subsequently. At present the country spends about 10 per cent of its national budget on education and its capital investment in education as percentage of total capital investment is of the order of 4 per cent.

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ВАЛ Level of education and employment activity

Educational levels in various sectors of employment are seen to be low. Primary school leavers, illiterates or semi-literates and to some extent junior secondary school leavers dominate, the primary sector of employment in decreasing order. Only 8 per cent of the total employed have college education of four years or more. Even in the government sector, only 6.4 per cent of those employed have higher (college) education. More than 70 per cent of those employed in this sector are junior/secondary school leavers. Same is the case with mining, manufacturing, construction and other sectors of employment. This is so because China follows a selective admission policy in higher education.

The discussion that followed brought out a number of issues. It was noted that in China, demand for educated manpower was higher than supply. There was no "open unemployment" but there existed a 'waiting period' for employment of secondary school leavers. For university graduates, there was absolutely no "waiting period" involved. However, the products of formal education did not seem to be adequately meeting the skill requirements of the market and many of the employees had to impart specialized skill training 'on-the-job'.

O n the other hand, there seemed to be a wastage and under-utilization of the available skilled manpower which was otherwise in short supply. A m o n g the educated professionals, 13 per cent were absorbed in jobs which were not related to their field of study.

The government has been trying to re-organize technical and vocational education so as to direct students into identified job oriented courses. Efforts have also been initiated for curricular reforms. Skill education project is being implemented in the country on a pilot basis in 600 selected schools. In addition to this, a "school leavers programme" is being run by the Ministry of Education. Various technical training programmes are also being conducted in technical training institutes.

B.5 Nepal

Since 1951 Nepal has initiated the process of planned development. Predominantly an agricultural country, Nepal's average growth rate of Gross Domestic Product is about 3.1 per cent. With about 90 per cent of its labour force in agriculture, the contribution of this sector to the G D P in the past 5 years has increased from 60 per cent (in 1981) to 62 per cent (in 1986), while the share of the non-agricultural sector has declined from 40 to 38 per cent during the same period.

B.5.1 Economically active population

The economically active population numbered 5.9 million and grew at an average growth rate of 1.6 per cent during the past 20 years. During the past 10 years (1971-81), the growth of the labour force in 1986 is about 5.8 million. Available statistics show that most of the Nepalese labour force is employed in low productivity and subsistence sector. About 86 per cent of workers are self employed and 52 per cent of the farmers hold less than 3 hectares of land.

239

Appendixes

B.5.2 Education-employment situation

Nepal has witnessed a tremendous expansion of educational institutions. National education system plan (1971-75) attempted to bring a co-ordination between different disciplines of education and development agencies.

Many students are educated in liberal arts and humanities. There is serious imbalance between demand for, and supply of skilled manpower. Plans suffer mainly because of lack of availability of information regarding availability of job.

Manpower demand for the seventh five year plan which includes the shortage observed during the sixth plan is projected to be 51,532. Projections include demand for trained manpower in fields like engineering, health, agriculture, forestry and science and technology. Total additional manpower supply both from within and outside the country during the seventh plan is estimated to be 13,472 persons. Thus the country will face serious manpower shortages towards the end of the seventh plan in different fields: 2,079 in engineering, 1,070 in health, 3,132 in agriculture and 378 in science and technology. However, in the field of forestry, there will be a surplus of 273 persons. In all, manpower shortage is estimated to be of the order of 7,386 persons.

B.5.3 Discussion

The discussion centred around steps taken by the government to overcome the problem of manpower development and utilization plan, etc. It was observed that during the seventh plan the government had initiated steps for large scale expansion of facilities at the educational institutions in the country and secure additional admission for higher studies abroad under foreign assistance programme. Moreover, programmes would be conducted to help develop manpower for fulfilling the needs of the private industrial sectors. The government was thus concerned about reducing the mismatch between the educational output and job availability in the country.

B.6 Pakistan

B.6.1 Economic outlook

During the period 1949-86, G D P of Pakistan has grown at an average annual rate of 53 per cent, while per capita income has increased by 42 per cent in spite of an average annual population growth rate of 3.06 per cent. Since independence (1947) the economy has undergone substantial change. Share of agriculture decreased from 53.2 per cent in 1949-50 to 25.5 per cent in 1986-87. The share of manufacturing (particularly the large scale) rose from 7.75 per cent in 1949-50 to 19.9 per cent and that of services from 37.2 per cent to 44.6 per cent. The change in the employment structure was less sharp— agriculture still absorbing more than half of the labour force. The share of semimanufactured and manufactured goods in the total exports have increased from 58 per cent in 1979 to 65 per cent in 1986.

B.6.2 Employment situation

43.37 per cent of the population of 10 years of age and over are in the labour force, of which 96.37 per cent are employed. The participation is higher in rural areas (45.68%) than in urban areas (38.09%). 26.26 per cent of the employees is made up of unpaid family workers in rural areas. The unemployment problem eased since the 1970s owing

240


to massive emigration to the Gulf States is less acute than the problem of underemployment. Only 34.2 per cent of the employed labour force is literate. The occupational structure has changed to a certain extent. During the period 1971-85 the share of administrators and professional categories increased from 2.5 per cent to 4.4 per cent; share of agricultural workers dropped from 57.2 per cent to 53.5 per cent.

B.6.3 Education system

The growth of higher education has been higher than that of lower levels. Stronger social and political demand were behind this, even though the problem of educated unemployment was being felt with time. The intake capacity of professional education increased at a very high rate. (Doctors from 1,800 in 1960 to 4,000 in 1983; B.Sc. Engineering from 400 to 3,650; polytechnic diploma from 500 to 6,000 during the same period).

B.6.4 Education employment situation

Since 1960s Pakistan has attempted to formulate educational policy oriented towards employment needs. However, financial difficulties and lack of competent teachers stood in the way of producing necessary skilled manpower. On-the-job training was the principal way out. Pakistan has a severe shortage of middle level technicians and secretarial/ commercial manpower.

One observes a problem of unemployment among engineers and doctors recently. But this is mostly a ... problem, there being a heavy shortage in specific areas and skills. However government has been providing loans on easy terms for unemployed doctors and engineers to open private firms, more incentive being given to those who would like to move to areas where there professions are most needed. The main problem of relating education to employment in Pakistan is to certain political and social pressure for expansion of higher education at the cost of primary education. Although no new university was to be set up in the Sixth Five Year Plan (1983-87) several colleges and three new universities have been set up, due to political pressure. During the same Plan only four polytechnics could be started in pace of sixteen planned, for lack of funds.

B.7 Sri Lanka

B.7.1 Economic outlook

The year 1977 marked a major turning point in the economic history of Sri Lanka. Consequent to growth impulses triggered by the new economic policies of the government, positive economic trends amidst a global situation of economic recession are now emerging. The spurt in overall economic activity following the economic reforms is reflected in the rate of growth of the economy which achieved an impressive rise to an average 6.2 per cent (GDP) per annum during the period 1978-82 from an average 2.7 per cent in the period 1971-76. The relative period also witnessed a pronounced trend towards a diversified and balanced growth of the economy away from the situation prevailing in the past in which economic growth was inextricably linked with the fortunes of the agricultural sector.

The development policies of the government have contributed to the upliftment of the standard of living of a broad cross section of the Sri Lanka economy. Employment creation too has figured prominently. Unemployment as a proportion of the labour force has declined from 25.9 per cent in 1977 to 13.4 percent in 1982.

241

Appendixes

В.7.2 Employment situation

About one third of the total population of 16 million belongs to the labour force. Available statistics show that one half of the male population and one-fifth of the female population belong to the labour force. T h e Sri Lankan labour force is divided into five categories:

(a) Regular employees (26.8 per cent)

(b) Casual employees (32 per cent)

(c) Employers (1.9 per cent)

(d) Self-employed (20.9 per cent)

(e) Unpaid family workers (7.5 per cent).

B.7.3 Education employment situation

Data relating to employed population according to educational qualification show that a large n u m b e r of the work force has received only the primary level of education (38 per cent)or have not attended school at all (14 per cent). These two categories represent 52 per cent of the work force. O n the other extreme undergraduates and graduates are less than 3 per cent.

Looking at the unemployment situation, it is seen that of those w h o received primary level of education or n o education at all, only 9 per cent are unemployed while a m o n g the graduates and undergraduates level of employment is almost 50 per cent. Thus providing employment opportunities to the educated poses problems for the country. At present, the steps taken for development of the e c o n o m y facilitate only the workers with a basic education.

During the discussion, issues were raised regarding the level of unemployment of the educated, utilization rate of middle/high level professional personnel, measures to divert students into areas with skill shortage, educational reforms, etc. It was observed that highest level of unemployment was amongst educated w o m e n at all levels of education. Undergraduates and G . C . E (A .L . ) constituted the largest categories of unemployed a m o n g the educated, representing respectively 41 per cent and 35 per cent of the labour force. T h e problem of higher level professional m a n p o w e r , however, was not serious. T h e government was taking steps to discourage entry into liberal arts courses in the university. A s far as the utilization rate of educated personnel was concerned, it was noted that there was m a x i m u m utilization of middle level personnel. Under-utilization rate for university graduates was estimated to be about 40 per cent.

B.8 Thailand

ВЯ.1 Economic outlook

Thailand's e c o n o m y has been increasingly influenced by the fluctuations in the world e c o n o m y ever since the beginning of the modernization era in the early 1960s. Consequently, with the world economic recession in 1985, Thailand's economic growth also plunged d o w n w a r d . Fortunately, the recession did not last long by 1986 the economy

242


began to recover. The economic out-look for 1987, however, is quite promising. It is expected that the economy would grow by 5.2 per cent in 1987 due to the expected 2.4 per cent growth in agriculture and the government's stimulatory policies which should take full effect in 1987. The private sector is expected to forge ahead, particularly in exports and tourism which would boost employment.

B.8.2 Employment situation

By the end of 1986, Thailand's population was approximately 52.9 million, representing a growth of 2.2 per cent. Of this, 27.9 million were in the labour force (age 11 + ) and 26 million were employed, of which 17.1 million were in agriculture, 2.3 million in trade and 4 million in other activities.

It is estimated that the number of jobless persons was 1.9 million, representing an unemployment rate of 6.8 per cent. This unemployment was the result of an excess supply of labour due to sluggish market expansion and investment. At the same time, growth in employment in the public sector and state enterprises was not more than 2.0 per cent per annum.

B.8.3 Development of the educational system and the economy

The development of Thailand's educational system was planned on a five year basis ever since the early 1960s. It was planned concurrently with the National Economic and Social Development Plan (NESD Plan) which was the principal plan that designed the country's development strategies. In the early 1960s, the plan was launched—which aimed at mobilizing resources to support the development of the industrial sector. The major factors that barred people in the traditional sector or rural sector from entering the modern sector, namely service and manufacturing sectors, was education. Therefore, there was a strong pressure on the Thai Government to expand secondary and college education. The demand was spontaneously responded to by education whose vested interests coincided with those who demanded it. However, by the time the educational system could supply its product, i.e., the middle and the high level manpower, the economy started to slow down. Yet, because the educational system could not apply an instant brake on its production as demand for educated people slowed down, increasing rates of educated unemployment began to emerge.

The latest available estimates show that of the 27.2 million total labor force, 79.8 per cent were those educated up to, or below the elementary level, 9.2 per cent were educated up to the high school level and 2.2 per cent had college education. There were 1.36 million unemployed, of which 72.1 per cent were educated up to the elementary level, 15.1 per cent received high school education and 5.8 percent had university education.

B.8.4 Comments/discussion

During the discussion questions were raised and clarifications were sought on education— employment linkages and the possible solutions to the educated unemployment problem. The available statistics seemed to reject the belief that the higher one was educated, the more were the chances of being employed. In face evidence suggested that with more education the chances of being unemployed increased considerably. It was seen that while the overall rate of unemployment was 5.3 per cent, the unemployment rate for college graduates was 13.3 per cent, for teacher training and secondary graduates, the rates were 8.8 and 8.5 per cent respectively.

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Appendixes

Causes for educated—unemployed situation have been the world economic recession and the development strategies of the government towards industrialization in .the public sector. Inconsistency between the educational system and the job market led to an over supply of educated m a n p o w e r in the country. However , it is expected that by 1991, the economy will be well on the road to recovery. S o m e of the major improvements that are needed to improve the situation m a y be:

(a) Emphasis on development of middle and high level m a n p o w e r ;

(b) Reduction of student admission in fields that have high unemployment rate such as social sciences and humanities;

(c) Improvement in curriculum content and instruction;

(d) Vocational consultation service, job placement service etc.;

(e) Additional short-term courses for vocational training for people in rural areas.

B.9 India

B.9.1 Education and employment situation

T h e population of India in 1985 is estimated around 745 million. About 305 million persons w h o are 5 years and above or 41 per cent of the total population are in gainful employment, and 45 per cent of the population is outside the labour force. O f the 337 million persons w h o are outside the labour force, 26.64 million are seeking employment. They constitute the apparent unemployment in the country.

O f the 305 million persons w h o are in the labour force, about 25 million persons are employed in the organized sector. Education has a role in the employment of these 25 million persons. A d d e d to this, there are another 7 million education persons w h o have registered themselves for employment in the 745 employment exchanges in the country. It is estimated that there are another 5 million persons w h o are seeking employment in the organized sector but have not registered their names . Further, s o m e educated are employed in the urban informal sector but there are no definite estimates. A conservative estimate of educated unemployment would be 12 million. For analyzing the relationship between education and employment, it is the 37 million people w h o matter.

Organized employment is classified under two sectors: public and private. T h e public sector comprises of 5 areas: Central government, Quasi central government, State government , Quasi state government and the local bodies. Forty eight per cent of the total public sector employment is provided by the State government of which 36 per cent is by the State government itself and another 12 per cent by Quasi state government organizations. T h e Central government accounts for 20 percent and the Quasi Central Government establishments account for another 19 per cent of the employment. T h e local bodies m a k e up for the remaining 13 per cent employment.

Indian case in regard to interaction between education and employment is not one of a 'perfect fit' model . T h e relationship had deteriorated and relevance declined from 1961 to 1971. T h e National Policy of Education 1986 recognizes the role of education as a supplier of m a n p o w e r needed for the economy. Several strategies to m o v e towards a 'rope-twine' model for interaction between education and employment have been

244


proposed: establishment of National Manpower Information System, State and National Boards of Technical Education, legislation to exercise control over industry and other user agencies, regional manpower information centres, community polytechnics industry-institute interaction, inter sectoral linkages in education, modernization of technical and management education, delinking of degrees from jobs, national testing service etc.

In the discussion that followed, it was pointed out that in the Indian situation one comes across, escalation of paper qualifications. Qualifications for the same job have gone up over the years. And this process has distorted the existing education employment relationship. The phenomenon is more experienced in the general education based occupations.

It was also noted that over the years a structural transformation has taken place from primary to secondary, to tertiary sectors so far as employment in India is concerned. Empirical evidence on India shows that the educated are increasingly employed in the tertiary sector. Therefore, this structural transformation has a direct influence on the educational level of the workers.

Regarding the status of manpower projects in the country, it was observed that a number of government bodies and private/public enterprises were involved in the process. Manpower planning cells had been established in each district. The objectives of manpower planning were to ensure the proper linkage of economic planning with manpower and educational planning so that no development programme suffered from a lack of the trained manpower that is needed. During the seventh five year plan, stock of educated manpower of matriculates and graduates was estimated to increase from 48 million in 1985 to 64 million in 1990. The number of economically active persons was expected to increase from 31 million to 41 million. Of the economically active population in 1985, 76 per cent were matriculates and 23 per cent were graduates and above. Diploma holders constituted a very small proportion of the economically active population. The number of educated unemployed was increasing and a considerable expansion in job opportunities for the educated manpower would need to be created in various sectors of the economy.

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Appendix С

Timetable

Tuesday 1 September 1987

09.30 hrs. Registration

10.00-11.15 ^Inaugural session

10.00 hrs. Welcome and Introduction to N I E P A — R . P . Singhal

10.05 hrs. Introduction to Training Programmes of N I E P A — K . M . Bahauddin

10.10 hrs. Statement by the Director, H E P , Paris—S. Lourié

10.20 hrs. Inaugural Address—J. Veeraraghavan

11.00 hrs. Chairman's Remarks—Satya Bhushan

11.10 hrs. Vote of Thanks—Bikas Sanyal

11.15 hrs. TEA BREAK

11.45 hrs. *Key Note Address—Satya Bhushan

13.00 hrs. LUNCH BREAK

Module 1: Introduction

14.15 hrs. ^Global Development Scenario—S. Lourié

16.00 hrs. ^Modalities of the Programme, Chairperson: K . M . Bahauddin

Wednesday 2 September 1987

'^Presentation of Country Papers, Chairperson: S. Lourié

09.30 hrs. Sri Lanka Presentation: S.U. Wijerathne Discussant: G . P . Sharma (Nepal)

10.15 hrs. Afghanistan Presentation: M . W . Zahid Discussant: M . Alam (Bangladesh)

11.00 hrs. T E A B R E A K

246


11.30 hrs. Thailand Presentation: Chuachan Chongsatityoo Discussant: T . Chhoeda (Bhutan)

12.15 hrs. China Presentation: Chen Xuefei Discussant: S.G. Amonkar (India)

13.00 hrs. L U N C H B R E A K

^Country Papers (continued) Chairperson: R.P. Singhal

14.15 hrs. Bangladesh Presentation: A . A . Khan, M . Alam Discussant: G . D . Amanzai (Afghanistan), Y . L . Ahuja (India)

15.00 hrs. Nepal Presentation: N . N . Regmi Discussant: E . K . Masinghe (Sri Lanka)

15.45 hrs. India Presentation: A . S . Seetharamu Discussant: Chen Xuefei (China)

16.30 hrs. Bhutan Presentation: T . Chhoeda Discussant: Silaporn Nakornthap

Thursday 3 September 1987

09.30 hrs. ^Diagnosis of Education—Employment Situation: Some Basic Concepts N . V . Varghese


11.30 hrs. *Basic concepts (continued)


14.15 hrs. Practical Exercise: S.K. Chu /N.V. Varghese

15.45 hrs. ^Discussion on Results

Module 2: Manpower Approach to Educational Planning

Friday 4 September 1987

09.30 hrs. ^Estimation of Manpower Demand—B. Sanyal


247

Appendixes

11.30 hrs. ^Projection of Manpower D e m a n d — S . K . Chu


14.15 hrs. ^Estimation of Manpower Supply—Brahm Prakash

11.15 hrs. ^Exercise on Manpower Supply — S . K . Chu

Monday 7 September 1987 (at И Р А )

09.30 hrs. Introduction to Computer—K.V.К. Ranganathan

10.15 hrs. Introduction to Lotus—S.K. Chu


11.30 hrs. Practical Exercise on estimation of manpower, demand and supply S.K. Chu /B .H. Shridhar A . C . Mehta Smitha Gupta


14.14 hrs. Practical Exercises (contd.)


09.30 hrs. ^Discussion of the results and a critical review of manpower approach to educational planning I IEP/NIEPA/PROUAP


11.30 hrs. ^Discussion (continued)


Module 3: Other approaches to relate education to employment

14.15 hrs. Theories of the Labour Market—M. Woodhall


09.30 hrs. Statistical techniques for empirical evidence on labour market theories with examples for group work—Yash Aggarwal


11.30 hrs. Statistical Techniques (continued)


248


14.15 hrs. 'Statistical Techniques (continued)

15.45 hrs. ^Earning Function—B. Sanyal

17.00 hrs. Film Show: Diploma Disease

Thursday 10 September 1987 (at IIPA)

09.30 hrs. Exercise on earning function—S.K. Chu/Brahm Prakash/ Yash Aggarwal


11.30 hrs. Exercise on earning function (continued)

13.00 hrs. L U N C H BREAK

14.15 hrs. ^Discussion on Earning Function

15.45 hrs. ^Tracer Studies—B. Sanyal

Friday 11 September 1987

09.30 hrs. Exercise on Tracer Studies—B. Sanyal


11.30 hrs. Exercise on Tracer Studies (continued)


14.15 hrs. ^Discussion of Results of Tracer Studies—B. Sanyal

15.45 hrs. ^Preparation of Questionnaire—B. Sanyal

Monday 14 September 1987

09.30 hrs. Drawing up of a Questionnaire—B. Sanyal/N.V. Varghese


11.30 hrs. Drawing up of a Questionnaire (contd.)—B. Sanyal/N.V. Varghese


14.15 hrs. ^Discussion on Questionnaire—B. Sanyal/N.V. Varghese

15.00 hrs. Multi-variate Analysis: SPSS Application—Brahm Prakash

249

Appendixes

Module 4: Strategies for better match between education and employment


09.30 hrs. ^Education and productive work—K. Sudha Rao/J Jalali


11.30 hrs. ^Education and productive work (continued)


14.15 hrs. *Vocationalization of Secondary Education—M. Woodhall

16.30 hrs. Film Show: Education and Productive W o r k


09.30 hrs. ^Diversification of Post-Secondary Education in Relation to Employment—B. Sanyal/G.D. Sharma


11.30 hrs. Discussion


14.15 hrs. Education and Employment in the Informal Sector—Brahm Prakash

15.45 hrs. ^Discussion

Thursday 17 September 1987

09.30 hrs. *Panel discussion on future needs and linkages between education and employment Chairperson: Moonis Raza Panelists: T.S. Papola/S. Prakash/B. Sanyal/M Woodhall


15.00 hrs. *Valediction Session Valedictory Address—Gautam Mathur

Note: The sign **' denotes a plenary session

250

Appendix D

List of participants in the seminar

AFGHANISTAN

M r . Ghulam Dustagir Amanzai General Director Finance Department Ministry of Education Kabul

M r . M o h a m m a d Wali Zahid Staff Member General Education Department Ministry of Education Kabul

BANGLADESH

M r . Mahmudul Alam Chief, H u m a n Resource Division and Senior Research Fellow Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies E-17 Agargaon Sher-e-Bangla Nagar Dhaka 7

M r . A H Amjad Khan Assistant Chief Planning Commission Sher-e-Bangla Nagar Dhaka 7

BHUTAN

M r . Tenzin Chhoeda Planning Officer Education Directorate Tachi Cho Dzong Thimphu

CHINA

M r . Chen Xuefei Higher Education Research Office Beijing University Beijing

NEPAL

M r . Nitya Nath Regmi Deputy Director

251

Appendixes

Regional Education Directorate of the Central Region Bagbazar Kathmandu

M r . Gopal Prasad Sharma Deputy Director Regional Education Directorate of the Far Western Region Dipayal

PAKISTAN

Dr. Ghulam Farid Malik Deputy Chief (Education) Planning Commission, Govt, of Pakistan Block P, Pakistan Secretariat Islamabad

Dr. M u h a m m a d Maqsud Alam Bukhari Associate Professor Department of Educational Planning and Management Allama Iqbal Open University Islamabad

SRI LANKA

Mrs. E . K . Masinghe Assistant Director National Planning Division Ministry of Finance and Planning Government of Sri Lanka

M r . S.U. Wijerathne Planning Officer Ministry of Education Malay Street Colombo 2

THAILAND

Dr. Chuachan Chongsatityoo Director Policy and Planning Division N . E . C Office of the Prime Minister Bangkok

Dr. Silaporn Nakornthap Technical Officer Policy and Planning Division N . E . C . Office of the Prime Minister Bangkok

252

INDIA


Dr. Y . L . Ahuja Chief (Education) Institute of Applied Manpower Research Indraprastha Estate N e w Delhi 110002

M r . Suresh G . Amonkar Chairman Goa Board of Secondary and Higher Education Directorate of Education Panaji Goa

Dr. R . L . Bhat P . G . Department of Economics University of Kashmir Srinagar—190006 Jammu & Kashmir

Dr. Niranjan Prasad Goel North Eastern Hill University Shillong 793014 Meghalaya

M r . Gopaljee Deputy Secretary Non-Formal Education Resource Centre Education Department Government of Bihar Patna, Bihar

Professor A . S . Seetharamu Professor and Head Education Unit Institute of Social and Economic Change Nagarbhavi P . O . Bangalore 560072 Karnataka

M r . S.S. Sehgal Assistant Director of Employment Exchange Ministry of Labour D . G . E . & T . Shram Shakti Bhawan N e w Delhi 110001

M r . R .S . Uppal Senior Research Officer Education Division Planning Commission Yojana Bhawan N e w Delhi 110001

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Appendix E

List of resource persons in the seminar

UNIVERSITY O F D E L H I

Prof. Moonis Raza

PLANNING COMMISSION

Prof. T.S. Papóla

N . E . H . U S H I L L O N G

Prof. Sri Prakash

I.I.P.A

Mr. K . V . K . Ranganathan

HEP

Prof. S. Lourié Dr. B. Sanyal Dr. M . Woodhall

PROUAP

M r . S.K. Chu

NIEPA

Dr. Y . P . Aggarwal Prof. K . M . Bahauddin Prof. Satya Bhushan M s . J. Jalali M r . Arun С Mehta Dr. Brahm Prakash Dr. K . Sudha Rao Dr. R .P . Singhal Dr. G . D . Sharma M s . Ranjana Srivastava M r . B . H . Sridhar Dr. N . V . Varghese Dr. S . M . . L A . Zaidi

254

Appendix F

List of documents distributed to the seminar participants

F Л Background papers

Matlmr, Gautam (1980) "Employment and Manpower Generation" Paper presented at the Sixth World Congress on the International Economic Association on Human Resources, Employment and Development Group II, 4-8 August, Mexico City.

Panchamukhi, P .R. (1983) "Education and Employment: Problems and Prospects in the International Order", in J. Veeraraghavan (ed.) Education and New International Order, N e w Delhi, Concept for NIEPA, pp. 50-64.

Prakash, Brahm and N . V . Varghese (1983) "Planning for Education and Training under Conditions of Changing Technology", Paper presented at the International Seminar on Labour Issues in the Third World Development, 4-7 January, N e w Delhi.

Prakash, Brahm and N . V . Varghese (1987) " O n Education and Employment Linkages in India" in C . L . Sapra and Yash Aggarwal (ed.): Education in India: Some Critical Issues, N e w Delhi, N B O .

Raza, Moonis and Brahm Prakash (1986): "Education and Work" , AMITY, 1986 (New Delhi).

Sanyal, B . C . (1987) Employment Policies and Educational Planning, Paris, H E P (Unesco)

Varghese N . V . (1986) "Education-Employment Relations: A Case Study of Organised Sectors in India", Paris, H E P (Uneso), HEP Occasional Paper, No. 76

Varghese N . V . (1986a) "Higher Education and Unemployment: Towards a Tentative Hypothesis" In J.B.G. Tilak (ed.) Education and Regional Development,, N e w Delhi, Y atan, pp. 23-44.

Varghese, N . V . (1986b) Higher Education and Employment in India: A Review, (A study sponsored by H E P , Paris) NIEPA, N e w Delhi.

Varghese, N . V . (1986c) Education and Labour Market: A survey of Indian Evidence, (A study sponsored by H E P , Paris) NIEPA, N e w Delhi.

255

Appendixes

F.2 Teaching materials

Bouattour, S.Z. (1987) Manpower Planning: A Simulation Exercise (A case of Sri Lanka) Paris H E P (Unesco)

Caillods, Françoise (1987a) Diagnosis of education and employment situation: Practical Exercise, (A case of Sri Lanka) Paris, H E P , (Unesco).

Caillods, Françoise (1987b) Diagnosis of education and employment situation: Solution to the Practical Exercise, (A case of Sri Lanka), Paris, H E P (Unesco).

Jalali, J. (1987) Education and productive work: some general considerations, N e w Delhi, NIEPA.

Lourié, Sylvain (1987) Education and Employment: A global Development Scenario, Paris,IIEP (Unesco).

Prakash, Braham (1987) Education employment linkages in the informal sector, N e w Delhi, NIEPA.

Rao, K . Sudha (1987) Education and Productive work: examples of concrete cases in India, N e w Delhi, NIEPA.

Sanyal, B . C . (1987a) Estimation of Manpower demand and supply, Paris, H E P (Unesco)

Sanyal, B . C . (1987b) Tracer Studies to relate education with employment, Paris, H E P (Unesco).

Sanyal, B . C . (1987c) Practical exercise on Tracer studies, Paris, H E P (Unesco).

Sanyal, B . C . (1987d) Preparation of a Questionnaire to collect information relating higher education with employment: The case of Sri Lanka, Paris, H E P (Unesco)

Sanyal, B . C . (1987e) Diversification of post-secondary education in Relation to employment. The International cover, Paris, H E P (Unesco).

Sharma, G . D . (1987) Diversification of post-secondary education in relation to employment with special reference to India, N e w Delhi, NIEPA.

Varghese, N . V . (1987) Education and employment: Some basic concepts, N e w Delhi, NIEPA.

Woodhall, Maureen (1987a) Theories of the labour market, Module: 3, Paris, H E P (Unesco).

Woodhall, Maureen (1987b) Vocationalization of secondary education Module: 4, Paris, H E P (Unesco).

256


F.3 Country Papers

1. Afghanistan: Education and Employment in Afghanistan, C D . Amenzai and M . W . Zahid

2. Bangladesh: The Economy, Employment Situation and Education Related Issues:

The Bangladesh Case, M . Alam

Bangladesh: Education and Employment in Bangladesh, A . A . Khan

3. Bhutan: Education and Employment in Bhutan, T. Chheoda

4. China: Education and Employment in China, Chen Xuefei

5. India: Towards and Integrated National Policy on Education and Employment:

Problems and Prospects in India, A.S. Seetharamu

6. Nepal: Education and Employment in Nepal, N . N . Regmi and G.P. Sharma

7. Sri Lanka: Education and Employment in Sri Lanka, S.U. Wigerathne

8. Thailand: Education and Employment in Thailand, Chuachan Chongsatityoo and Silaporn Nkornthap

9. Pakistan: Education, Employment and Work, G.F. Malik and M . A . Bukhari

257

Appendix G Evaluation of the seminar

Q U E S T I O N N A I R E

The intensive training course on education employment and work which your are attending is the first such course jointly organized by H E P , NIEPA and P R O U A P .

Would you please answer the following questions to give information to the course planners in the following topics? This, we hope, will help with the planning of future courses.

Part 1. Preparatory phase of course

1. H o w were you first informed about the course? (Please check where appropriate). It was through:

The Unesco agency in m y country

Official channels of my country

Former H E P , NIEPA or P R O U A P associates

- Public announcement

(2)

(ID

(2)

Private information

(4)

(2)

Other persons (please specify)

(13)

2. H o w much previous notice would be necessary so that the majority of possible applicants in your country could be informed?

At least:

3 months

6 months

9 months

12 months

More than 12 months

(7)

258


3. If more courses like the present one were to be offered, and more than one person from your country might participate, which of the following situations would be more helpful to your country?

Only one person at each course

T w o persons at one course

More than two persons at one course

(l)

(18)

(3)

If you checked "two or more persons'1, please indicate which type of participation would be best:

Persons from the same institution at the same course

Persons from different institutions at the same course

(2)

(17)

4. Did you find September an adequate time for the course, considering your regular work at home?

Yes (13) No (4)

If not, which month would you prefer?

Please give your reason for this choice.

5. What would be the maximum amount of time you could spend on a similar course?

1 week (6) 2 weeks (7) 3 weeks (8) 4 weeks

6. Did you find the information in the first official announcement of the course sufficiently clear to decide to apply?

Yes (15) No (3)

If not, please specify what should have been clearer

Issues of Research are to be discussed.

259

Appendixes

7. In order that participants can prepare themselves adequately for the course, h o w m a n y months before the beginning of the course should the participants be informed of their selection and of the tasks thev sould undertake?

less than 3 months

(7)

3-5 months (as it was now)

6-8 months 9-12 months

(14)

8. Please comment on the practical guidelines, the outline of the country paper and the reference document sent to you (for non-Indians only).

9. W a s the information given by H E P on the organization of the programme satisfactory? (For non-Indian only)

Yes (13) No (1)

If not whv?

10. What advice would you give to a participant before he/she attends a similar course

next year? The following things should be sent to the participants:

1. Objectives of the programme.

2. Perspectives on the theme "Research Issues".

3. Preparatory Reading.

Per diem at Unesco rates.

Part II. T h e course

11. Did you experience any language difficulties in the course?

Yes (3) No (18)

If 'Yes1 please indicate the main difficulties

Reading Listening Speaking Writing

(1) (2)

260


D o you have any comments on the daily timetable? (working hours, tea breaks, lunch breaks etc.,)

Please specify -*•• Time for country paper inadequate.

2. Overburdened with work - programme too tight scheduled.

3. Time for library consultation too little.

Please check appropriate cells in the following grids:

Your benefit from the course compared with what you expected

A .

Lectures

Discussion

Group/Practical work

Use of computers

B .

Module 1

Introductory

Module 2

Module 3

Module 4

Less than As much as More than expected expected expected

(6)

(1)

(12)

(ID

(2)

(2)

(4)

(6)

(11)

(11)

(6)

(4)

(15)

(14)

(13)

(13)

(13)

(4)

(6)

(3)

(2)

(4)

(2)

(6)

(3)

(2)

Time allotted during the course

Too About Too little right much

(11)

(12)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(3)

(6)

(16)

(17)

(6)

(3)

(15)

(12)

(14)

(11)

(9)

(3)

(2)

(1)

(2)

(1)

Module 1: Diagnosis of education and employment situation.

Module 2: The manpower approach to educational planning.

Module 3: Other approaches to relate education employment.

Module 4: Strategies for a better matter match between these two sectors.

261

Appendixes

14. If you have checked "less than expected" or "too little" for any cell, please comment.

1. Less time was given for group work.

2. Less time for computers.

15. Have you learned any ideas or techniques during the course which you believe will be of value in your present work in your country?

1. Computerisation and analysis of data.

2. Cross National experiences.

3. Principles of Manpower Planning. 4. Strategies relating to education and employment.

5. Multivariate analysis.

16. H o w would you evaluate the sequence of topics of the course?

Weak (8) Moderate Good (ID

Comments (in particular, what changes in sequence of topics you would recommend) . ^ _ „,

Expected discussion on Issues for Research and Planning.

17. H o w would you rate the general level of the course in relation to your past training?

Too low (2) (17) Adequate Too high (1)

Please comment

18. In terms of the content of the course, do you think that a three week programme was

Much too short? Too short? About right? Too long? Much too long?

(8) (13)

Please comment

262


19. In general, was the content of the course relevant to the educational problems in your country?

Of little relevance Fairly relevant Highlv relevant

(2) (12) (6)

20. W e r e there some aspects of education/employment relations which you believe should have been included when planning this course, in addition to the areas covered.

No (10) Yes (7)

If yes, please specify Growth accounting approach in Educational Planning.

21. Which arrangement do you find most appropriate during 'plenary' activities, on the part of faculty members?

Only one present

All present but not participating during the lecture

(2)

All present with partial participation

All present with free active participation throughout

(9)

(8)

22. Which of the following types of your o w n participation do you prefer'

Questions and comments after lecture is over (15)

Questions and comments during the lecture (6)

N o questions or comments

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Appendixes

23. What observation (either positive or negative) do you have about the physical conditions (e.g. room, food, visual aids etc.) of the course

Positive Poor food

(7) (2)

24. H o w would you rate the prevailing atmosphere during the course?

Poor Fair

Between the participants

Between faculty and participants

Between participants and NIEPA supporting personnel of the course

Good

(1)

(1)

(8)

(5)

(3)

(13)

(14)

(16)

25. W h a t were (if any) the problems between faculty and participants

26. H o w would you rate the documents and reading materials circulated during the course.

Poor (8) Fair (10) Good

(2) Inadequate (12) adequate (5) sufficiently adequate

Irrelevant (5) fairly relevant

(8) relevant

27. D o you have any general remarks on the conduct and content of the Course?

264


Part III. Follow-up

28. In terms of the training needs for education employment in your country, do you think that H E P should repeat such intensive courses in the next three years?

No (2) Unsure (18) Yes

If yes, please mark h o w m a n y candidates you think your country would like to send (bearing in mind the cost implications) during the next three years?

2-3 4-5 more than 6 do not k n o w

(1) (17)

29. In what other field(s) of educational planning would you suggest that similar intensive courses should be held, considering the needs of your country? (If you are not able to judge, please say so).

1. Educational Planning in Market Economy.

2. Micro-Approaches to Eductional Planning.

3. Vocationalisation.

4. Management of Institutes.

30. Which of the following type of course (check one) do you consider most appropriate for the kind of training you have just received?

(8) International (6) Regional (7) National

Please, c o m m e n t further if you wish

31. In the future, in what ways could H E P help you keep in contact with or help become acquainted with:

(a) Current work in education and employment in other countries. 1. Sending publications. 2. Relationship between employment department and

educational department.

(b) Persons working in your speciality: 1. Seminars and conferences.

Appendixes

(с) Others (please specify)

32. If you have any other comments on any aspect of the course (in its preparation, conduct or follow-up) which have not been mentioned above, please write them below:

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intensive training course on education, employment and work: report

Documents