STEP-CHANGE

Sustainable Transport Evidence& Modelling Paradigms:

Cohort Household Analysis to Support New Goals in Engineering Design

‘an empirically grounded frame forthe modelling of transformational futures’

Institute forTransport Studies

Context

• Policy need to promote step-change towards more sustainable futures, especially in transport/travel.

• Limited evidence of what brings about long-term behavioural change in travel/transport.

• Existing transport surveys focus on marginal trade-offs, not major qualitative change.

• Existing mathematical models for city transport planning focus on stable situations/slow change.

• Challenge: Need for new evidence and models.

Vision• To achieve a deep, fundamental integration of

social scientific and engineering methodologies:– State-of-the-art, qualitative, longitudinal survey

instruments & analytical methods for eliciting and understanding behavioural change.

– ‘Vision’- based planning paradigms for designing resilient urban futures for 2050.

– Develop innovative mathematical modelling theories and methods.

– To produce as outputs both planning methods and an evidence-base, for future exploitation by the research community and practitioners.

Interconnecting Research Strands

1. Qualitative, Longitudinal Cohort Study

2. Historical Information on Step Changes

3. Integrating Diverse Knowledge Sources

4. Planning for Urban Resilience in 2010

5. Development of New Transport Modelling Paradigms

Project Structure

Strand 1: Cohort Study

Strand 4: Visions of urban resilience in 2050

Strand 3: Integrating diverse knowledge sources

Strand 2: Historical information on step changes

Strand 5: New Modelling Paradigms

Strand 6: Academ

ic and non-academic collaboration

Metaphors

Evidence-based

informati

on

Feedback

Interview

transciptions

Evidence-based

informati

on

Visions and planning paradigms

Evidence for

historical changes

Metaphors

Feedback

Methodological Innovation

• innovative nature of the panel

• importance of qualitative research in a mixed-methods frame

• focusing on the structures, relationships and contingencies of everyday life

• for understanding behavioural contexts and processes

• innovation is in the mix

Multi-/Inter-/Trans-Disciplinary Approach

Research Process (developed from: Julie Thompson Kleinhttp://www.science.org.au/events/fenner/fenner2004/klein.html)

Project Team• A strong interdisciplinary collaboration between two

internationally leading research centres:– Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), a major EPSRC-

supported centre for studying transport sustainability & modelling, and with extensive end-user engagement.

– Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change (CRESC) a major ESRC research centre focusing on temporal, behavioural change in qualitative and quantitative data.

• Momentum for this project from– CRESC’s ESRC Qualitative Research Laboratory– ITS’s EPSRC Transport Modelling Platform Grant– ITS/CRESC collaboration in ITS-led EPSRC project

“Visions of the role of walking & cycling in 2030”

CollaborationsAcademic Visitors Prof Forsyth (Cornell, USA): planning paradigms Dr Woodcock (LSHTM): impacts & evidence

Academic Project Partners Prof Neale: link to ESRC Timescapes data/study Dr Bishop (ESDS Qualidata): existing qualitative sources Prof Elliot (Centre for Longitudinal Studies): analysis

Non-Academic Project Partners Leeds & Manchester LAs: eg assistance with surveys Wider local authority involvement, eg York support Department for Transport, CABE: steering group

STEP-CHANGE

Sustainable Transport Evidence& modelling Paradigms:

Cohort Household Analysis to support New Goals in Engineering design

‘an empirically grounded frame forthe modelling of transformational futures’

Institute forTransport Studies