ISA – Killing Speed Electronically

Oliver CarstenInstitute for Transport Studies

University of LeedsUK

How does ISA operate?

1. Position: a GPS-based navigation system

2. Information: a digital road map with speed limits

3. HMI: Tell the driver the speed limit

4. Control (if wanted): a link to the drivetrain

Evidence from trial after trial is that this can be made to work reliably

Driving with ISA reduces crash risk

• Calculation of individual crash risk with intervening ISA (report to Transport for London, 2006)

• Method:– By combining observed changes in speed behaviour

on 30 mph roads (from ISA-UK Trial 1)– With risk of crash involvement given driving speed

on urban roads (from Kloeden et al., 1997)– We can calculate an average saving in the risk of a

crash

• Answer:– 19.3% reduction

Attitudes

• Generally supportive public attitudes:– MORI poll in UK for FIA Foundation in 2002:

• 70% support for warning ISA in urban areas• 58% would support non-overridable limiters on

residential streets if that meant road humps would be removed

• ISA “grows” on those who experience it:– Almqvist and Nygard (1997) found that 73% of

drivers reported being more positive towards ISA after using it than before

– Lahrmann, Madsen and Boroch (2001) reported that 15 out of 20 drivers became more favourable to using ISA after experience of the system

ISA brings other benefits

• Fuel savings

• CO2 savings

• Potential to reduce journey time (managed motorways; reduction in incidents)

• Cheap traffic calming

PROSPER Results:Benefits and Costs

Oliver Carsten Institute for Transport Studies

University of Leeds UK

The Prosper project is co-funded by the European Commission, Directorate General for Energy and Transport.

Accident prediction and cost-benefit analysis Six countries — Belgium, Great Britain, France,

NL, Spain and Sweden Two major scenarios

– Market driven (those who want ISA fit it)– Authority driven (first encouragement and

then compulsion) Scenarios affect mix of ISA systems Procedure:

– Predict traffic growth– Predict accident risk without ISA– Predict additional safety impact of ISA (via

change in speed patterns)– Analyse costs and benefits

Penetration of Voluntary ISA in Market-Driven Scenario

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Penetration of Voluntary ISA in Authority-Driven Scenario

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Reductions in fatalities (ISA versus no ISA) in 2050

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Market Scenario Authority Scenario

Benefit-to-cost ratios by country and scenario

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Market Scenario Authority Scenario

Note: Year of mandatory usage for Authority Scenario is in range 2032 to 2035

Implementation of ISA

• Comments at PROSPER seminar (policy-driven group):

– Waiting till 2035 or 2050 is too long

• Can we learn some lessons from another successful technology — seatbelts?

Time line for seatbelts

1949 Nash offers lap belts in USA

1950 Nash withdraws option

1955 Ford and Chrysler offer optional lap belts in USA

1959 Volvo introduces 3-point belt as standard in Sweden

1962 Seatbelt anchors standard in US

1967 GB requires installation of 3 point belts in front

1968 US requires installation of 3 point belts in front

1968 GB requires retrofit of 3 point belts in front on model year 1965 and later cars

1970 Victoria (Australia) mandates use in front and rear

1975 Sweden mandates use in front

1983 GB mandates use in front

Stages

• Stage 1: Voluntary fitment– Lots of trouble to install

• Stage 2: Required anchorages– Pioneers adopt

• Stage 3: Required fitment– Large numbers can voluntarily adopt

• Stage 4: Compulsory usage

The “Tipping Points”The “Tipping Points” are:

1. Requiring capability on the vehicle (= the seatbelt anchorages)This enables voluntary fitment

2. Requiring fitmentThis enables large-scale voluntary usage

But also one crucial difference with seatbelts:

ISA cannot be used without an information service

Great Britain: Seatbelt wearing rates for front occupants of cars and vans

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Conclusions• “ETSC seeks to identify and promote effective measures

on the basis of international scientific research and best practice in areas which offer the greatest potential for a reduction in transport crashes and casualties.”

• ISA fits those criteria with huge potential for casualty reduction

• ETSC and other safety organisations should promote 2 stages of deployment:Stage 1: – A pan-European speed limit information service– A standard link between speed limit information and

vehicle control (ECE Reg 89 on Speed Limitation Devices as amended in 2002 allows for adjustable speed limiters)

Stage 2:– Required fitment of intervening (but overridable) ISA

One last point

• Do we need a new name for ISA?– How likely is that a customer will walk into

the showroom and ask for “Intelligent Speed Adaptation”?

• How about “In-Vehicle Speed Support” (IVSS)?