www.monash.edu.au Institute of Transport Studies

Standing Committee on Transport – Urban Congestion Management Working GroupNational Workshop on Urban Transport Modelling

Public Transport

Professor Graham CurrieChair of Public Transport, Institute of Transport Studies, Monash University

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Agenda

1. Introduction

2. Ten Issues

3. Recommendations

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This paper focuses on Public Transport Modelling Issues associated with Urban Congestion

• It concerns modelling issues associated with public transport but related to urban congestion in Australia

• A major aim is to identify issues and recommendations for COAG

• Many of the comments made are relevant to other areas of transport modelling

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Recommend-ations

TenIssues

It is structured as follows:

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Agenda

1. Introduction

2. Ten Issues

3. Recommendations

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2. Issues

a. Optimism Bias

b. Predict and Provide

c. Generality – The 4 Step Problem

d. Specificity – The PTA Problem

e. Land Use and Transit

f. Capacity Constraint

g. Road Space Allocation

h. Exogenous Drivers

i. Post Implementation Reviews

j. Knowledge Management

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Optimism Bias is the cause of the Australian rail forecast ‘disasters’ – have we solved it?

• Sydney and Brisbane Airport Railways failed due to forecast error

• Flyvbjerg (1996) Rail Patronage Forecasts:– on average, the actual patronage on the sample rail

projects was 40% lower than forecast;– at the 95% confidence interval, the patronage was

between 19% to 60% lower than forecast• Causes (McGregor and Raimond, 2005):

– Strategic Misrepresentation– Judgement Bias– Methodological Bias– Poor Project Definition

• Need for Independent Advice• Need for Informed Second Opinion• Need to Control Use of Modelling Results

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2. Issues

a. Optimism Bias

b. Predict and Provide

c. Generality – The 4 Step Problem

d. Specificity – The PTA Problem

e. Land Use and Transit

f. Capacity Constraint

g. Road Space Allocation

h. Exogenous Drivers

i. Post Implementation Reviews

j. Knowledge Management

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The cause of today’s congestion is predict and provide planning – have we stopped yet?

TrafficCongestion

NeedMore RoadCapacity

Do TrafficModelling

StudyProveNeed for

More Roads

Provide More

Roads

TrafficGrowth

PredictAnd

Provide

Modelling IssuesModelling Issues

• Modelling the induced demand problem long term

• Disappearing Traffic and Road Diets

• Accurate representation of wider social effects of traffic congestion

• Accurate representation of public transport choices

• Exogenous factors influencing demand

• Modelling the induced demand problem long term

• Disappearing Traffic and Road Diets

• Accurate representation of wider social effects of traffic congestion

• Accurate representation of public transport choices

• Exogenous factors influencing demand

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2. Issues

a. Optimism Bias

b. Predict and Provide

c. Generality – The 4 Step Problem

d. Specificity – The PTA Problem

e. Land Use and Transit

f. Capacity Constraint

g. Road Space Allocation

h. Exogenous Drivers

i. Post Implementation Reviews

j. Knowledge Management

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Most PT modelling uses 4 step models – these are hopeless at anything but broad PT forecasting

Source: Zhao, Yong and Kara Kockelman. “The Propagation of Uncertainty through Travel Demand Models: An Exploratory Analysis.” Annals of Regional Science 36 (1), pp. 145-163, March 2002.

Where does Forecasting a

2-10% PT modeshare fit into

this levelof accuracy?

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2. Issues

a. Optimism Bias

b. Predict and Provide

c. Generality – The 4 Step Problem

d. Specificity – The PTA Problem

e. Land Use and Transit

f. Capacity Constraint

g. Road Space Allocation

h. Exogenous Drivers

i. Post Implementation Reviews

j. Knowledge Management

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PTA models have more detailed data but have a range of weaknesses

Public Transport Assignment Models (PTA)Public Transport Assignment Models (PTA)

• Model Public Transport modes only but to a greater degree of detail

• Involves good quality origin destination surveys

• Focus is shorter term tactical planning

• Involves reassignment of trips between PT modes and routes

• Based on Fixed or ‘elasticised’ trip matrices. Can be interfaced with MMT models

• Model Public Transport modes only but to a greater degree of detail

• Involves good quality origin destination surveys

• Focus is shorter term tactical planning

• Involves reassignment of trips between PT modes and routes

• Based on Fixed or ‘elasticised’ trip matrices. Can be interfaced with MMT models

Modelling IssuesModelling Issues

• No representation of ‘choice’ road user markets

• Fails to represent impacts of expansion of services into new areas/ new trips

• No detailed representation of

– Mode split

– Trip redistribution

• No representation of ‘choice’ road user markets

• Fails to represent impacts of expansion of services into new areas/ new trips

• No detailed representation of

– Mode split

– Trip redistribution

Auckland NZ has a Combined 4 Step and PTA ModelAuckland NZ has a Combined 4 Step and PTA Model

• Combines the benefit of detail on base PT system usage with multi-modal modelling

• Handles the problem of PT expansion into new areas

• Combines the benefit of detail on base PT system usage with multi-modal modelling

• Handles the problem of PT expansion into new areas

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2. Issues

a. Optimism Bias

b. Predict and Provide

c. Generality – The 4 Step Problem

d. Specificity – The PTA Problem

e. Land Use and Transit

f. Capacity Constraint

g. Road Space Allocation

h. Exogenous Drivers

i. Post Implementation Reviews

j. Knowledge Management

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Most authorities are wondering how to consider transit oriented development in modelling

Base CaseLand Use

Base CaseNetworks

Base CaseModel

Option Case

Networks

OptionCase

Forecast

Option CaseLand Use(TransitOriented

Development)

Option CaseModel

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While land-use transport modelling remains more theoretical than practical

Base CaseLand Use

Base CaseNetworks

Base CaseModel

Option Case

Networks

OptionCase

Forecast

Option CaseModel

Option CaseLand Use

Modelling IssuesModelling Issues

• No before and after data to calibrate land use transport models

• Lack of empirical data

• Very difficult to understand inter-relationships between land use and networks in models

• No before and after data to calibrate land use transport models

• Lack of empirical data

• Very difficult to understand inter-relationships between land use and networks in models

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2. Issues

a. Optimism Bias

b. Predict and Provide

c. Generality – The 4 Step Problem

d. Specificity – The PTA Problem

e. Land Use and Transit

f. Capacity Constraint

g. Road Space Allocation

h. Exogenous Drivers

i. Post Implementation Reviews

j. Knowledge Management

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Few urban models work under PT capacity constraint though this now dominates big city transit

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Capacity>Frequency>Growth ConundrumCapacity>Frequency>Growth Conundrum

No solution to the Capacity>Frequency>Growth Conundrum has been found

OverloadedTransit

Increase Capacity

IncreaseFrequencyMarket

Growth

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2. Issues

a. Optimism Bias

b. Predict and Provide

c. Generality – The 4 Step Problem

d. Specificity – The PTA Problem

e. Land Use and Transit

f. Capacity Constraint

g. Road Space Allocation

h. Exogenous Drivers

i. Post Implementation Reviews

j. Knowledge Management

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Transit priority remains the most efficient use of limited congested roadspace

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But modelling of priority is remarkably simplistic

RESEARCH REFERENCE

Vuchic (2)

Black et al (8)

Jepson and Ferreira (7)

Radwan & Benevelli (3)

Oldfield et al (4)

Delgoffe (9)UK Dept. of Transport(6)

Approach to Traffic Flow Modelling (✔=Approach Adopted)

No Direct Consideration of Traffic Impacts

✔

No Specific Model Adopted ✔

Standard Static Analytical or Mathematical Model

✔ ✔ ✔

Dynamic Traffic Simulation Modelling Used

✔ ✔ -

Travel Behaviour Modelling (✔=Included ✘ = Not Included)

Speed Flow Capacity Analysis ✘ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Traffic Route Diversion Considered ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✔ ✔ ✔

Mode Shift Considered ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✔

Trip Generation Considered ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✔

Disappearing Traffic Considered ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘ ✘

Table - Alternative Traffic Flow and Travel Behaviour Modelling Approaches in Public Transport Priority Evaluation Research.

Source: Currie G Sarvi M Young W (2006) ‘A New Approach to Evaluating On-Road Public Transport Priority Projects: Balancing the Demand for Limited Road Space” Transportation (published on line 15th Nov 2006 - DOI 10.1007/s11116-006-9107-3)

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2. Issues

a. Optimism Bias

b. Predict and Provide

c. Generality – The 4 Step Problem

d. Specificity – The PTA Problem

e. Land Use and Transit

f. Capacity Constraint

g. Road Space Allocation

h. Exogenous Drivers

i. Post Implementation Reviews

j. Knowledge Management

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We don’t know why big city rail demand is booming

Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

1994-1995

1995-1996

1996-1997

1997-1998

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-6

Rail Boardings M p.a.

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Modelling emphasis is on endogenous factors not exogenous

EXOGENOUS FORECASTSThings that affect society as a whole – not controlled

by Transit Operators

EXOGENOUS FORECASTSThings that affect society as a whole – not controlled

by Transit Operators

• Socio-Economic influences on demand. Such as changes in :

– Population

– Employment/ Unemployment

– Income

– Age distribution

– Fuel Costs

• Socio-Economic influences on demand. Such as changes in :

– Population

– Employment/ Unemployment

– Income

– Age distribution

– Fuel Costs

ENDOGENOUS FORECASTSThings that Transit Operators/Planners can change

ENDOGENOUS FORECASTSThings that Transit Operators/Planners can change

• Fare

• Service Level (Frequency)

• Travel Time/Speed

• Reliability

• Service design – route alignment

• Amenity provision (seats, shelter, information, quality of the environment, personal safety)

• Fare

• Service Level (Frequency)

• Travel Time/Speed

• Reliability

• Service design – route alignment

• Amenity provision (seats, shelter, information, quality of the environment, personal safety)

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2. Issues

a. Optimism Bias

b. Predict and Provide

c. Generality – The 4 Step Problem

d. Specificity – The PTA Problem

e. Land Use and Transit

f. Capacity Constraint

g. Road Space Allocation

h. Exogenous Drivers

i. Post Implementation Reviews

j. Knowledge Management

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Post implementation reviews create informed quality modelling…..

Option Case

Networks

TransportModel

Option Case

Forecast

PostImplementation

Review

Mo

dellin

gIm

pro

vemen

t

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…..but are rare as hens teeth

Option Case

Networks

TransportModel

Option Case

Forecast

PostImplementation

Review

Mo

dellin

gIm

pro

vemen

t

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2. Issues

a. Optimism Bias

b. Predict and Provide

c. Generality – The 4 Step Problem

d. Specificity – The PTA Problem

e. Land Use and Transit

f. Capacity Constraint

g. Road Space Allocation

h. Exogenous Drivers

i. Post Implementation Reviews

j. Knowledge Management

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Australian knowledge sharing about modelling is dispersed, often lost and almost non existant

• Not fully funded or continuous

• Limited participation• Limited modelling

SCOT

• Very limited funding• Single workshop in

25 years on modelling

ITE

TransportProfessionalAssociations

• Not focused on knowledge development

• Professional Advocacy Group

• Not Transit Related• Limited/No

Modelling Publications

• Good industry knowledge sharing e,g, marketing group

• No publications• Limited research

• Good industry knowledge sharing

• Few publications• Nothing on

modelling

• Good industry knowledge sharing

• Few publications• Road/ Highway

specific

Industry Advocacy Groups

• Doesn’t deal in strategic knowledge transfer

• Rarely transit multi-modal

• Often ‘Gunzels’/ rail enthusiasts

ProfessionalJournals

• Little Transit• Rather Theorectical• Deals in new

knowledge• Poor industry

distribution or interest

AcademicJournals

ARRB

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KNOWLEDGE DEVELOPMENT processes – good people but almost zero dissemination

• Consulting – very state/territory based

– very limited knowledge sharing (commercial issues/ confidentiality issues/ political issues)

• Academia– not much real public transport work

– trend towards very theoretical work

• Commercial World– concern over intellectual capital rights

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The USA has an extensive open inclusive industry participation and knowledge development/ sharing program for all transport research

Federal Transit Administration

(Sponsor)

TransportationResearch

Board

TransitDevelopmentCorporation

NationalAcademy of

Sciences

AmericanPublic

TransportationAssociation

Transit Cooperative Research Program

US FederalGovernment

TCRP Structure TCRP Research Process

Annual Problem Statements

Free and open to all for suggestions• Transit Agencies/ APTA• TRB Staff/ TRB Committees• FTA/ Universities• Consultants

Problem Statement Selection

(Workshops)

TCRP Oversight & Project Selection Committee (TOPS)

• FTA Strategic Goals and Priorities

Project ResourcingTEA 21-Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century

Call for TendersResearch Providers

Provider Selection

Research

Publication (Free Web Download)

TRCP Project Panel

Related Activities

TransportationResearch

Board

AmericanPublic

TransportationAssociation

Annual Conference Annual Conference

TRB Committee Meetings

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In PT It conducts knowledge development in 9 fields and 6 program areas, with 4 strategic goals and 5 strategic priorities

Program AreasProgram Areas

1. Safety and Security2. Equipment and Infrastructure3. Fleet Operations4. Specialized Transit Services5. Planning and Policy6. Professional Capacity Building

1. Safety and Security2. Equipment and Infrastructure3. Fleet Operations4. Specialized Transit Services5. Planning and Policy6. Professional Capacity Building

Strategic Goals and Policy InitiativesStrategic Goals and Policy Initiatives

1. Security Readiness2. Ridership3. Project Planning and Oversight4. Workforce Development

1. Security Readiness2. Ridership3. Project Planning and Oversight4. Workforce Development

Strategic PrioritiesStrategic Priorities

1. Customer first2. Transit in a technologically

advanced society3. Continuously improve transit4. Flourish the multi-modal

system5. Revistalize transit organizations

1. Customer first2. Transit in a technologically

advanced society3. Continuously improve transit4. Flourish the multi-modal

system5. Revistalize transit organizations

A OperationsA Operations

11. Scheduling12. Vehicle Operations13. Control Systems14. Fare Collection15. User Information

Systems16. Safety and Security

11. Scheduling12. Vehicle Operations13. Control Systems14. Fare Collection15. User Information

Systems16. Safety and Security

TCRP Problem Areas

B Service ConfigurationB Service Configuration

21. System Planning22. Specialized Service

Planning23. Service Performance24. Marketing

21. System Planning22. Specialized Service

Planning23. Service Performance24. Marketing

C Vehicle Equi EngineeringC Vehicle Equi Engineering

21. Buses22. Vans23. Heavy Rail Cars24. Commuter Rail Vcls25. Light Rail Cars26. People Movers27. Vehicle Components

21. Buses22. Vans23. Heavy Rail Cars24. Commuter Rail Vcls25. Light Rail Cars26. People Movers27. Vehicle Components

D Fixed Facility EngineeringD Fixed Facility Engineering

41. Buildings42. Rail Operating

Facilities43. Passenger Stops and

Terminals44. Bus Stop Facilities

41. Buildings42. Rail Operating

Facilities43. Passenger Stops and

Terminals44. Bus Stop Facilities

E MaintenanceE Maintenance

51. Vehicle Servicing52. Vcl. Inspectn & Maint.53. Vcl Corrective Repairs54. Overhaul & Rebuilding55. Non-Vcle Maintenance56. Maintenance

Management

51. Vehicle Servicing52. Vcl. Inspectn & Maint.53. Vcl Corrective Repairs54. Overhaul & Rebuilding55. Non-Vcle Maintenance56. Maintenance

Management

F Human ResourcesF Human Resources

61. Recruitment62. Training63. Employee Reviews64. JobClassification65. Salary Administration66. Labor Relations67. Performance Imprvemnt

61. Recruitment62. Training63. Employee Reviews64. JobClassification65. Salary Administration66. Labor Relations67. Performance Imprvemnt

G AdministrationG Administration

71. Financial Management72. Procurement &

Inventory Control73. Risk Management74. Law75. Management Info

Systems76. Transit Organizations

71. Financial Management72. Procurement &

Inventory Control73. Risk Management74. Law75. Management Info

Systems76. Transit Organizations

H Policy and PlanningH Policy and Planning

81. Policy Analysis82. Planning83. Economics84. Environmental

Analysis

81. Policy Analysis82. Planning83. Economics84. Environmental

Analysis

J Special ProjectsJ Special Projects

91. Areas not covered91. Areas not covered

166 project reports& 60 industry synthesis

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TRB Modelling activities are extensive

ADB00: Section - Travel Analysis Methods

ADB00: Section - Travel Analysis Methods

ADB00 Section - Travel Analysis Methods

ADB10 Traveler Behavior and Values

ADB20 Telecommunications and Travel Behavior

ADB30 Transportation Network Modeling

ADB40 Transportation Demand Forecasting

ADB50 Transportation Planning Applications

ADB60TTask Force on Moving Activity-Based Approaches to Practice

ADB99AInnovations in Travel Demand Modeling: A Conference

ADB00 Section - Travel Analysis Methods

ADB10 Traveler Behavior and Values

ADB20 Telecommunications and Travel Behavior

ADB30 Transportation Network Modeling

ADB40 Transportation Demand Forecasting

ADB50 Transportation Planning Applications

ADB60TTask Force on Moving Activity-Based Approaches to Practice

ADB99AInnovations in Travel Demand Modeling: A Conference

AP000: Public Transportation GroupAP000: Public Transportation Group

AP000 Public Transportation Group

AP010 Transit Management and Performance

AP015 Transit Capacity and Quality of Service

AP020 Emerging and Innovative Public Transport and Technologies

AP025 Public Transportation Planning and Development

AP030 Public Transportation Marketing and Fare Policy

AP035 Transit Fleet Maintenance

AP040 Major Activity Center Circulation Systems

AP045 Intermodal Transfer Facilities

AP000 Public Transportation Group

AP010 Transit Management and Performance

AP015 Transit Capacity and Quality of Service

AP020 Emerging and Innovative Public Transport and Technologies

AP025 Public Transportation Planning and Development

AP030 Public Transportation Marketing and Fare Policy

AP035 Transit Fleet Maintenance

AP040 Major Activity Center Circulation Systems

AP045 Intermodal Transfer Facilities

AP050 Bus Transit SystemsAP055 Rural Public and

Intercity Bus Transportation

AP060 ParatransitAP065 Rail Transit SystemsAP070 Commuter Rail

TransportationAP075 Light Rail TransitAP080 Rail Transit System

DesignAP085 Ferry Transportation

AP050 Bus Transit SystemsAP055 Rural Public and

Intercity Bus Transportation

AP060 ParatransitAP065 Rail Transit SystemsAP070 Commuter Rail

TransportationAP075 Light Rail TransitAP080 Rail Transit System

DesignAP085 Ferry Transportation

ADA00: Section - Transportation System Policy,

Planning and Process

ADA00: Section - Transportation System Policy,

Planning and Process

ADA00 Section - Transportation System Policy, Planning and Process

ADA10 Statewide Multimodal Transportation Planning

ADA20 Metropolitan Policy, Planning, and Processes

ADA30 Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized Communities

ADA40 Transportation Needs of National Parks and Public Lands

ADA50 Transportation Programming, Planning, and Systems Evaluation

ADA60 Public Involvement in Transportation

ADA00 Section - Transportation System Policy, Planning and Process

ADA10 Statewide Multimodal Transportation Planning

ADA20 Metropolitan Policy, Planning, and Processes

ADA30 Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized Communities

ADA40 Transportation Needs of National Parks and Public Lands

ADA50 Transportation Programming, Planning, and Systems Evaluation

ADA60 Public Involvement in Transportation

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Is it time to do this in AustraliaIf yes, HOW?

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Agenda

1. Introduction

2. Ten Issues

3. Recommendations

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To tackle all the problems identified we need to solve Australias knowledge development and sharing problem

Optimism BiasPredict and Provide

Generality – The 4 Step Problem

Specificity – The PTA Problem

Land Use and TransitCapacity Constraint

Road Space AllocationExogenous Drivers

Post Implementation ReviewsKnowledge Management

Key PT Modelling IssuesKey PT Modelling Issues COAG RecommendationsCOAG Recommendations

• An Australian Transportation Research Board

– Build on the US model– Define priority research and

education areas– Scrupulous industry involvement

and sharing of all results– ATRF as a national conference

federally supported each year– Sponsor research committee to

focus research areas like modelling around the national conference

• An Australian Transportation Research Board

– Build on the US model– Define priority research and

education areas– Scrupulous industry involvement

and sharing of all results– ATRF as a national conference

federally supported each year– Sponsor research committee to

focus research areas like modelling around the national conference