institut für physik der atmosphäre ensemble climate-chemistry simulations for the past 40 years...
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![Page 1: Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Ensemble Climate-Chemistry simulations for the past 40 years Volker Grewe and the DLR/MPI Team Institut für Physik der](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051314/55162a7255034694308b5d73/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Ensemble Climate-Chemistry simulations for the past 40 years
Volker Grewe and the DLR/MPI Team
Institut für Physik der AtmophäreDLR-Oberpfaffenhofen
Martin Dameris, Veronika Eyring, Fabian Mager, Michael Ponater, Tina Schnadt, Andrea Stenke - DLR Oberpfaffenhofen
Benedikt Steil, Christoph Brühl, Patrick Jöckel - MPI- Mainz
Marco Giorgetta, Claudia Timmreck, MPI-Hamburg
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
ECHAM4.L39(DLR) = E39 Atmosphere circulation model
Global spectral model with semi-Lagrangian advection of water vapour,
cloud water and tracers
Resolution: T30, 39 layers, top layer centered at 10 hPa (30 km)
Parameterizations of radiation, clouds, precipitation, convection, diffusion
CHEM = C Chemistry-Module (family concept)
Transported species: H2O, CH4, N2O, HCl, H2O2, CO, CH3O2H, ClONO2,
HNO3+NAT, ICE, ClOx, NOX, OX
37 species and 107 gas-phase reaction
Methane oxidation, PSC formation, 4 heterogeneous reactions on PSCs
Parameterization of dry/wet deposition, lightning and surface emissions
Interactively coupled at every timestep
E39/C Climate-Chemistry Model
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Coupling of Dyamics and Chemsitry in E39/C
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Simulation of the Earth‘s atmosphere from 1960 to 2000
Simulation is based on climate chemistry model E39/C with additional forcings:
• Emissions of NOx, CO, CO2, N2O, CH4, CFCs, as observed or estimatd by
IPCC
• QBO nudged in tropical stratosphere
• Volcanoes regarded (Agung, El Chichon, Pinatubo) for chemistry and
radiation
• Observed sea surface temperatures (Hadley-GISS)
• 11 year solar cycle
• No other forcing, free running climate chemistry model
![Page 5: Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Ensemble Climate-Chemistry simulations for the past 40 years Volker Grewe and the DLR/MPI Team Institut für Physik der](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051314/55162a7255034694308b5d73/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Total Ozone [DU]
• High variability > than in time-slices • Solar cycle in tropics
• Ozone hole starts 80s
• Global ozone -15 DU
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Tropospheric ozone column (DU)
• High variability
• Global increase: 4 DU
• Small effects on SH
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Simulated evolution of cloud to ground lightning 1960 to 2000
El Nino events
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Ensemble 50 hPa temperature
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Ensemble total ozone
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Ensemble tropospheric total ozone
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Lightning
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Summary
• CCM/CTM Models are ready for transient simulations• ACCENT modelling acitivity: Ensemble simulations
Capability of models (-> Comparison to measurements) Attribution perhaps possible?
TemperatureTropospheric Ozone Column ?
BUT
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Fully coupled CCM simulations require additional diagnostics in orderto separate various effects.
E.g. NOx and ozone tagging diagnostics
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Approach: Tagging of NOy and ozone molecules
1st step: For each source i=1, ... , n (n=8) define a NOy tracer (Xi)2nd step: For each NOy tracer define an ozone tracer (Yi)
and an ozone tracer (Yn+1) for ozone production by O2 photolysis
photolysis Oby causedion concentrat O
8)n1,..,(i iemission by
causedion concentrat O and NO ,NO
loss Ozone ,photolysis Oby and
NOby production Ozone loss, NO ,
i sourceby NO ofEmission
O and NO ,NO Simulated ,,
231
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11
Attribution of ozone increase to NOx emissions
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
![Page 16: Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Ensemble Climate-Chemistry simulations for the past 40 years Volker Grewe and the DLR/MPI Team Institut für Physik der](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051314/55162a7255034694308b5d73/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
![Page 17: Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Ensemble Climate-Chemistry simulations for the past 40 years Volker Grewe and the DLR/MPI Team Institut für Physik der](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051314/55162a7255034694308b5d73/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
![Page 18: Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Ensemble Climate-Chemistry simulations for the past 40 years Volker Grewe and the DLR/MPI Team Institut für Physik der](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051314/55162a7255034694308b5d73/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Tropical past ozone changes 30S-30N20
0-50
0 h
Pa
500-
1000
hP
aOzone tracer mass
• Lightning most important
source for tropical ozone
• In UT: stratospheric
intrusions also important
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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Interannual variability in the tropics
• Solar cycle effects stratospheric ozone
leading to weak UT ozone variations (5%)
• Stratospheric O3 and lightning important
for inter-annual variations
• Industry and land transportation
responsible for trends
Upper troposphere
Lower troposphere