Industry Trends in Renewable Energy Development in the U.S. and Overseas

Brent Summerville PE

Candidate for AT Faculty Position

February 23, 2015

Thanks for the opportunity

“Industry Trends in Renewable Energy Development in the U.S. and Overseas”

What are the most prominent, and promising areas of renewable energy development?

What factors are influencing these trends?

What are the implications for university-based educational programs like the Appropriate Technology program at ASU?

IREN

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Which show a recent flat trend?

Which show steep, recent growth?

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/62580.pdf

U.S. renewable electricity in 2013 was 14.8% of total overall installed electricity capacity and 13.1% of total annual generation in the United States.

Global RE trends

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/62580.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/

Wind Energy

• China added 23,3 Gigawatt, the largest number a country has ever added within one year, reaching a total capacity of 115 GW.

• Germany has become the second largest market for new turbines, adding onshore and offshore 5,8 Gigawatt.

• The US market recovered from its previous slump and reached 4,9 Gigawatt.

• The newcomer of the year 2014 is Brazil with additional capacity of 2,8 Gigawatt, the first time that a Latin American country has reached such figure.

• Denmark set a new world record by reaching a wind power share of 39 % in the domestic power supply.

In his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama noted that “America is number one in wind power.”

Indeed, the U.S. generates more energy from wind than any other country, leading China, Spain, and Germany. That is because U.S. turbines are nearly twice as productive as Chinese turbines on average.

http://aweablog.org/blog/post/state-of-the-union-is-right-us-is-1-in-wind-energy

•taller towers

•longer blades

•siting turbines in wind-rich

•Building high-quality wind turbines with minimal downtime

In 2014, the U.S. wind industry installed 4,854 MW and 2,500 turbines.

There are now 65,879 MW of installed wind capacity in the United States and

over 48,000 wind turbines.

www.windpoweringamerica.gov

As resource quality drops, rotors have increased

For example the GE 1.5, workhorse of the US wind industry, has seen an increase in rotor size but remains 1.5 MW

http://www.stork-gears.com/

What is Distributed Wind?

The DOE Wind Program defines distributed wind in terms of technology application and the wind turbine's location relative to end use and power distribution infrastructure rather than by turbine or project size.

http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/wind/newsletter/detail.cfm/articleId=158

Graphic: NREL / DOE

2013U.S. Distributed Wind Market Report Summary

Thanks to Alice Orrell (PNNL) and Heather Rhoads-Weaver (eFormative Options). All data presented here is their work.

Cumulative Installed Capacity

http://distributedwind.org/member-center-new/north-american-installation-map/

US Distributed Wind Installations

www.irecusa.org

http://www.nacleanenergy.com/magazine/janfeb_2015/index.html#p=24

U.S.-based small wind turbine manufacturers reported domestic content levels of 80% to 95% - 2013 DOE market report

China accounts for 39 % of the global capacity, the USA for 31 % and UK for 9,4 %. - small-wind.org

www.apple.com

Solar

www.apple.com

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/62580.pdf

http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2014-q3

36% of new power plants in 2014 were solar

Non-residential

Residential

Utility

“The utilities decided to offer a deal to renewable developers: If they could develop renewable energy facilities with capacities below 5 megawatts and deliver the power below a specified cost, the utilities would agree to buy the output. Figuring that not many developers would be able to pull this off, the utilities didn’t put a cap on the program.”Ivan Urlaub, executive director of the North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association,

North Carolina ranks second in the number of solar farms under construction, behind only California.

http://www.slate.com/

renewable-energy mandatetax creditsfalling panel pricesplus,…

AT alumni

AT alumni

Solar Radiation Research LaboratoryNRELGolden CO 

AT alumni

A shout out to Geothermal The United States leads the

world in installed geothermal electricity capacity and generation, with most of that capacity installed in California, followed by Nevada. (Geothermal is now 50 years old)

BiopowerBiofuels

In 2013, biopower electricity generation accounted for 11% of all renewable energy generated in the United States. (NC is #7)

Biopower electricity comes primarily from wood and agricultural residues that are burned as a fuel for cogeneration in the industrial sector (such as in the pulp and paper industry).

In 2013 the United States led the world in biodiesel production, followed by Germany, Brazil, Argentina, and France and Indonesia.

To watch:Advanced Water Power

• Tidal, river, ocean current, and ocean wave• AKA Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK)

Technology

Verdant Powerenergy.gov

What factors are influencing these trends?

Policies and incentives

Cost o RE tech

Manufacturing

Financing

Electricity costs

Fossil fuel price

Investor interest

Energy Efficiency

Aging power plants

Climate change

Clean air and water

In 2012, the United Nations General Assembly declared 2014 to 2024 to be the Decade of Sustainable Energyfor All, underscoring the importance of energy issues for sustainable development and for the elaboration of the post-2015 development agenda (UN GA, 2012). -IRENA REmap

What are the implications for university-based educational programs like the Appropriate Technology program at ASU?

Stay connected to the current reality; renewables are growing fast, advances are needed to secure a sustainable energy future

Conduct research that the industry needs

Provide hands-on, practical education; graduates are ready for action

Implement tech solutions that consider the community

“Health and environment consequences must be taken into account in policy” –IRENA Remap

“Renewables and efficiency alone can keep the global concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere below 450 ppm.” –IRENA Remap