industry overview & forecasts - mint.hr · france: further contraction expected in 2010 with no...

Industry Overview & Forecasts

WTTC’s 2010 Economic Research

Eva AimableManager, Policy & Research

World Travel & Tourism Council

Croatia Tourism Days

Key trends at a glance, Jan 2010

2008:

2009:

2010:

2020:

Improved Outlook for Travel & Tourism in 2010

Travel & Tourism rebounded in 2010 H1, beating our expectations

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

World: Travel & Tourism Economy GDP growth% yr

Source : Oxford Economics

Forecast

Jan 2010 forecast

Oct 2010 update

Air passenger volume growth surges in 2010 H1…

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

% year, RPK

RPK = revenue passenger kms

Source: IATA

International air passenger traffic growth

3mth mav

…driven by emerging markets

-16-12-8-4048

1216202428

Africa Asia/Pacific Europe LatinAmerica

Mid.East N.America WorldSource: IATA

International air passenger growth by region

JulyJune

% yr

International air passenger growth by region

August

…while visitor arrivals growth paints a similar picture…

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


Mature MarketsCentral & Eastern EuropeAsia PacificMiddle East & N.Africa

% year

Source: PATA, Haver, Eurostat, Oxford Economics

Regions: Overnight visitor arrival growth*

*3 month mav

Overnight visitor arrival growth 2010

Ye ar to: % Ye ar to: % Ye ar to : %A ustria Ju l 3.8 C an ada J ul 1 .4 Ho n g K o n g Aug 24.0B elgiu m May 2.9 U S Jun 10 .8 S ou th K o rea Aug 12.7D enm ark Jun 3.2 M exico J ul 5 .6 M acau Aug 21.0F in land Jun 1.1 C hile J ul -4 .0 T a iw an Aug 27.5F rance Jun 1.9 A n gu illa M ay 11 .3 In dia Aug 9.7G erm an y Ju l 11.4 A n tig u a & Barbu da Apr -1 .7 M ald ives Aug 21.8G reece M ar 4.7 A ru b a Aug 1 .5 Nep a l Sep 19.8Italy May 6.1 B ah am as J ul 3 .3 P ak is tan #N /A -3.5L uxemb ou rg #N /A -9.5 B arbad os Aug 4 .1 S ri Lan ka Aug 46.7N etherlan ds May 10.6 B erm u da Jun -0 .8 Cam bo d ia Aug 14.9Po rtu ga l Ju l 6.1 C aym an Islan ds Aug 5 .4 In do n es ia Aug 12.1Sp a in Ju l 7.8 C ub a J ul 1 .5 L aos #N /A 15 .6Sw ed en Jun 0.7 D om R ep u blic Aug 2 .9 M alays ia Jun 4 .6U K Ju l -2.1 D om inica J ul 7 .6 M yanm ar Ju l 34 .0B u lgaria Ju l 5.6 G renad a M ay 0 .0 P ap u a N ew G u inea Aug 17.2C yprus Ju l 0.1 Jam aica Jun 4 .1 P hilipp in es May 11.2C zech R ep Jun 3.7 M artin iqu e Aug 6 .6 S in g ap o re Aug 22.2Eston ia Jun 13.3 P uerto R ica M ay 7 .9 T h ailan d Aug 13.2H u ng ary Jun 7.7 S t K itts M ar -12 .8 V ie tn am Aug 36.3L atv ia Jun 5.0 S t L u cia Jun 11 .9 Au stra lia Aug 5.6L ith uan ia Jun 1.8 S t V in cent M ay -2 .3 New Z ealan d Ju l 3 .6M alta Jun 14.1 B rit ish Virg in Is land s J ul 12 .7 F iji Jun 21 .5Po land May 5.8 U S Virg in Is land s Aug 7 .2 Kir iba ti Jun 47 .9R o m an ia Jun 2.1 B ah ra in M ar 0 .6 T o ng a Ju l -13 .7Slo vak ia Jun 3.6 Is rae l Aug 23 .3 V an u atu Jun -8 .3Slo ven ia Ju l 4.4 Jo rd an Aug 21 .7 RE G IO N AL EST IM A T ES (1 )M o nteneg ro Ju l 1.3 L eban on J ul 12 .5 E urop e Au g 5.0C ro a tia Jun -6.6 E gyp t Jun 21 .0 Am er icas Au g 6.1Icelan d Jun 4.3 M au rit ius J ul 6 .3 M id dle Eas t Au g 12.7N o rw ay Ju l 8.8 S ou th A frica J ul 13 .3 Africa Au g 12.5Sw itzerlan d Ju l 3.3 T u nis ia Aug -2 .2 Asia-Pac if ic Au g 12.8T urkey Aug 5.1 Jap an Aug 33 .5

C hin a Aug 5 .8 W O R LD Au g 7.4N B. W here the re is no 2010 da ta ye t ava ilab le 2009 g row th is lis ted instead

(1) based on these 90 coun tries on ly; cove rage good for Eu rope , N o rth Am erica , the C a ribbean and Asia -Pacific but ve ry lim ited elsew hereSource: O xfo rd E conom ics

Overnight visito r arriva l growth in 2 010(% year -o n-year , Jan uary 2010 to th e in dica ted m o n th )

...implying a significant improvement on our early-2010 forecast

-14-12-10-8-6-4-202468

1012


% year, 3mth mav

RPK = revenue passenger kms

Source: IATA, PATA, Haver, Eurostat, Oxford Economics, WTTC, CTO

World: Short-term tourism indicators

IATA international traffic growth (RPK)

Annual data/forecast for visitor arrivals

Overnight visitor arrivals†

†based upon monthly data covering 80% of world arrivals

Growth in travel spending rebounds strongly…

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Q3-2008 Q4-2008 Q1-2009 Q2-2009 Q3-2009 Q4-2009 Q1-2010

Global Travel Spending Receipts Growth% yr

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

…but total remains well down on pre-recession peak

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Global Travel Spending Receipts*$US bns

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

*Data covers countries accounting for around 95% of global export receipts

4-qtr moving sum

Rebound faster than expected this year…

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

World: Travel & Tourism Economy GDP growth% yr


Forecast

Jan 2010 forecast

Oct 2010 update

…but forecasts for 2011 revised downwards

2009 2010 forecast 2011 forecast% October Jan %pt chg October Jan %pt chg

Europe -4.2 -0.4 -1.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 -0.2

Americas -7.4 1.5 0.7 0.8 2.4 3.1 -0.7

Middle East -5.4 4.0 -0.1 4.1 4.1 5.1 -1.0

Africa -6.2 3.0 0.6 2.4 3.0 3.8 -0.8

Asia -1.6 4.5 2.0 2.5 4.2 4.6 -0.4

World -4.8 2.0 0.5 1.5 2.7 3.2 -0.5

Source: Oxford Economics

T&T Economy GDP growth forecasts: October vs. January 2010(shading highlights forecast downgrades)

Long-term potential of Travel & Tourism is undiminished –but government support is critical

A dynamic force for wealth and job creation

• The global Travel & Tourism Economy will grow by 4.3% pa over the next 10 years, implying its share of the global economy will rise to just under 10%.

• This will help to create an additional 66 million jobs, acting as a key driver of poverty reduction.

• And we will need them – 2 bn new middle-class consumers globally between now and 2030 – 60 mn a year (Goldman Sachs)

Croatia

Croatia: Activity weak in 2010H1 but signs of a nascent recovery emerging

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

2008 2010 2020 2008 2010 2020200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400T&T GDP (LHS)

T&T Employment(RHS)

Croatia: Outlook for T&T Economy% Share


000s jobs

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Croatia: Overnight Foreign Visitor Arrival Growth*% yr

Source : Eurostat

*3 mth moving average

Individual Country Analysis

USA: Sharp fall in visitor arrivals drives recession, but recovery underway

• Following an inventory-driven surge, growth has slowed sharply this year raising fears of a double-dip, but we expect growth to remain solid.

• Long-term growth prospects for Travel & Tourism are good – domestic (1.9 bn trips in 2009, of which 50% overnight) and inbound.

• Despite sharp growth in foreign visitor arrivals so far, recovery in 2010 dragged back by very weak investment and business travel

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


US: Overnight Visitor Arrival Growth*% yr

Source : PATA


0123456789

1011

2008 2010 2020 2008 2010 20200

5

10

15

20T&T GDP (LHS)

T&T Employment(RHS)

US: Outlook for T&T Economy% Share


Mn jobs

UK: Olympics should drive the recovery from 2011

• Although growth surged in Q2 momentum is expected to slow as fiscal cuts bite.

• Despite the weakness of sterling, the collapse of business travel demand caused a sharp drop in foreign tourist arrivals in 2009.

• Travel & Tourism Economy GDP will contract further this year, before growth starts to accelerate from 2011, with the 2012 Olympics set to boost activity.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2010 2020 2008 2010 20200

1

2

3

4

5T&T GDP (LHS)

T&T Employment(RHS)

UK: Outlook for T&T Economy% Share


Mn jobs

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


UK: Overnight Visitor Arrival Growth*% yr

Source : Haver


France: Further contraction expected in 2010 with no real growth until 2012

• Growth surprised on the upside in Q2 and internal demand should be sufficiently strong to generate modest growth in the near term.

• Foreign visitor arrivals have begun to recover following a double-digit fall during 2009.

• Real T&T Economy GDP is forecast to contract again this year before recovery commences, which is unlikely to gain real traction before 2012.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2010 2020 2008 2010 20200

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4T&T GDP (LHS)

T&T Employment(RHS)

France: Outlook for T&T Economy% Share


Mn jobs

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


France: Overnight Visitor Arrival Growth*% yr

Source : Eurostat


Spain: Further contraction expected in 2010 with no real growth until 2012

• The current macroeconomic outlook remains dire with acute fiscal problems likely to constrain growth for the foreseeable future.

• Travel & Tourism has not escaped the malaise with the T&T economy estimated to have contracted by 7.5% in 2009.

• Real Economy GDP is forecast to contract again this year before recovery commences, which is unlikely to gain real traction before 2012.

12

13

14

15

16

17

2008 2010 2020 2008 2010 20201

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5T&T GDP (LHS)

T&T Employment(RHS)

Spain: Outlook for T&T Economy% Share


Mn jobs

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


Spain: Overnight Visitor Arrival Growth*% yr

Source : Eurostat


Germany: Strong visitor arrival growth offset by weak outlook for investment

• Sharp recovery in economic growth as exports picked up on the back of a rebound in emerging markets, but momentum set to fade in 2010H2.

• Foreign visitor arrivals have rebounded sharply this year, boosting the T&T economy, but business travel spending remains very weak.

• The recovery is forecast to be very subdued with real economy GDP growth unlikely to gather much speed before 2012.

0

2

4

6

8

10

2008 2010 2020 2008 2010 20200

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5T&T GDP (LHS)

T&T Employment(RHS)

Germany: Outlook for T&T Economy% Share


Mn jobs

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


Germany: Overnight Visitor Arrival Growth*% yr

Source : Eurostat


industry overview & forecasts - mint.hr · france: further contraction expected in 2010 with no...

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