industrial sector stock presentation

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Shavkat Nasirov, Jon Misny, Justin Oblak, Eric Zimmerman

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Shavkat Nasirov, Jon Misny, Justin Oblak, Eric Zimmerman. Industrial Sector Stock Presentation. Sector Recap. The Industrials sector weight in the SIM portfolio will remain unchanged from its previous weight of 13.1%. We remain cautiously optimistic about the performance of our sector. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Shavkat Nasirov, Jon Misny, Justin Oblak, Eric Zimmerman

Page 2: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Sector S&P 500 Weight SIM Weight +/-

Consumer Discretionary 10.55% 10.44% -0.11%

Consumer Staples 10.91% 11.71% 0.80%

Energy 11.18% 9.76% -1.43%

Financials 16.47% 11.41% -5.07%

Health Care 11.55% 14.63% 3.07%

Industrials 10.76% 13.10% 2.34%

Information Technology 18.91% 20.18% 1.27%

Materials 3.45% 1.64% -1.82%

Telecommunication Services 2.73% 3.70% 0.98%

Utilities 3.48% 2.10% -1.38%

Cash 0.00% 1.26% 1.26%

Dividend Receivables 0.00% 0.08% 0.08%

The Industrials sector weight in the SIM portfolio will remain unchanged from its previous weight of 13.1%.

We remain cautiously optimistic about the performance of our sector.

Page 3: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Sell all 249 bp ofHold 363 bp ofHold 371 bp ofHold 346 bp of Buy 249 bp of

Page 4: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Recommendation: HOLD Current Price: 50.06 Target Price: 60.00 (20% Upside) Recent Developments:

Tax on profits of Australian mining companies threatens to decrease demand

Chinese demand for coal strong and this trend should continue into the near future

Eurozone crisis not a large threat because internationally, emerging economies drive most of demand

Page 5: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Recommendation: HOLD Current Price: 66.00 Target Price: 90.00 (36% Upside) Recent Developments

Defense spending expected to decline in near future. Withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq expected to

decrease demand for new defense contracts. Robert Gates keeps questioning current contracts that

have gone over allotted budgets.

Page 6: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Recommendation: HOLD Current Price: 34.23 Target Price: 50.00 (47% upside) Recent Developments:

Recent large sale of shares by top executives Similarly to GD, defense spending cuts will affects sales

negatively Current market downturn hitting industrials the hardest

Page 7: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation
Page 8: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Freight forwarding Purchases uncommitted capacity from

ocean liners and aircrafts Solicits clients to fill this capacity

Contract logistics Warehousing and distribution of goods Consulting and business specific supply

chain solutions

Page 9: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Revenue Costs Net RevenuesAirfreight forwarding 33% 25% 8%Ocean freight forwarding 25% 20% 5%Customs brokerage 3% 3%Contract logistics 18% 4% 14%Distribution 12% 8% 4%Other 9% 5% 4%TOTAL 100% 62% 38%

Net Revenues 38%Labor 21%Depreciation 1%Other 13%Interest 1%Taxes 1%Net Income 1%

Page 10: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Relative to Airfreight & Logistics Industry

Page 11: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

FY FY FY FY FY FY FYRevenue Growth 2013E 2012E 2011E 2010A 2009A 2008A 2007AAirfreight Forwarding 25.00% 11.00% 16.80% -26.75% 4.38% 21.81% 14.55%Ocean Freight Forwarding 25.00% 11.00% 16.80% -25.95% 9.31% 17.45% 13.50%Customs Brokerage 16.00% 11.00% 13.00% -15.52% 11.63% 13.80% 6.55%Contract Logistics 25.00% 8.00% 12.00% -1.95% 7.28% 29.60% 16.74%Distribution 15.00% 8.00% 8.00% -26.55% -9.53% 13.84% 234.04%Other 15.00% 8.00% 10.00% -13.20% 2.68% 66.05% 22.67%

Total 22.81% 9.87% 14.17% -21.48% 4.06% 23.06% 27.85%

FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY2013E 2012E 2011E 2010A 2009A 2008A 2007A 2006A

Shares 101,458 101,458 101,458 101,458 99,407 100,172 99,562 98,042 Diluted EPS 1.41 0.95 0.70 0.41 (0.05) 0.99 1.04 0.55

consensus 1.41 0.94 0.70 EPS Growth 49% 35% 74% n/a -105% -5% 89%

Five Year Historical Growth Rate: -1%Long-Term Future Growth Rate: 15%

Page 12: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Freight Forwarding Contract Logistics Total

EMENA* 35% 20% 30%

Americas 20% 53% 31%

Asia Pacific 32% 3% 22%

Africa 12% 24% 16%

Major Regions

Major CountriesTotal Revenues

United States 27%

South Africa 16%

China 10%

Spain 5%

None of UTi’s clients accounts for more than 4% of it’s revenues.*EMENA represents European, Middle Eastern, and North African countries

Page 13: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Eruption of Eyjafjallajökul in Iceland Dozens of airports shut

down▪ North Africa, Middle East,

Eastern and Western Europe Continued erupting for 14

months last time

Oil Spill in Gulf of Mexico Most dramatic indirect

effect could be on shipping

Page 14: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Year 2011 E 2012E 2013E 2014 E 2015E 2016E 2017 E 2018E 2019E 2020 E 2021E

Revenue 4,073,147 4,474,987 5,495,666 6,320,016 5,561,614 6,562,704 7,218,975 7,579,924 7,883,121 8,198,445 8,526,383 % Growth 9.9% 22.8% 15.0% -12.0% 18.0% 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

Operating Income 124,778 162,195 233,393 252,801 111,232 262,508 288,759 303,197 315,325 327,938 341,055 Operating Margin 3.1% 3.6% 4.2% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

Interest and Other 15,478 17,005 20,884 25,280 22,246 26,251 28,876 30,320 31,532 32,794 34,106 Interest % of Sales 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Taxes 33,336 44,283 64,815 69,394 27,141 72,058 79,264 83,228 86,557 90,019 93,620 Tax Rate 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5%

Net Income 71,463 96,407 143,194 158,067 61,785 164,139 180,559 189,590 197,176 205,065 213,270 % Growth 74% 34.9% 48.5% 10.4% -60.9% 165.7% 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

Add Depreciation/Amort 50,914 55,937 74,191 82,160 83,424 98,441 93,847 98,539 102,481 106,580 110,843 % of Sales 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

Plus/(minus) Changes WC 53,714 (20,092) (51,034) (31,600) (27,808) (32,814) (36,095) (37,900) (39,416) (40,992) (42,632) % of Sales 1.3% -0.4% -0.9% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5%

Subtract Cap Ex 40,731 58,175 82,435 94,800 83,424 85,315 93,847 98,539 102,481 106,580 110,843 Capex % of sales 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

                       Free Cash Flow 135,360 74,077 83,917 113,827 33,977 144,451 144,464 151,690 157,760 164,073 170,638 % Growth -45.3% 13.3% 35.6% -70.2% 325.1% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

Target Price: $16.42Upside: 18%

Discount Rate: 10.5%Terminal Growth Rate: 4%

Page 15: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Sum of Parts Analysis

UTi Worldwide (UTIW)Eric Zimmerman

Sales per P/S Competitors P/S ratios Target P/S Target multiple x

Segments Segment Ratio UPS FedEx CH RobHub Group Air T Pacer ATS Atlas Air Multiple Sales/Segment

Airfreight Forwarding 283,701  1.36 0.77 1.19  0.39 0.17 0.41 1.09 1.4 397181.4Ocean Freight Forwarding 174,183      1.19    0.17    1.3 226437.9Customs Brokerage 86,744  1.36        0.17    1.4 121441.6Contract Logistics 525,494  1.36  1.19 0.73  0.17 0.41  1.4 735691.6Distribution 137,071            0.17    0.5 68535.5Other 153,808            0.17 0.41  0.5 76904

TOTAL 1,361,001 0.41 1626192

Target Market Cap

Date of price 1/1/2008Current Stock Price 14.28

# of diluted shares 101485Target Price 16.02% return to target 12%

Target Price: $16Upside: 12%

Page 16: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Relative to Industry

Relative to Sector

*Current P/Book, Trailing P/E, P/Cash Flow, and P/EBITDA ratios are all below the median ratios, signaling that the stock may be at a discount

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Page 18: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation
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Page 20: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

MultipleR-Square

Adjusted StErr of

Summary R R-Square Estimate

0.8610 0.7413 0.7140 1.76319038

Degrees of Sum of Mean of F-Ratio p-Value

ANOVA Table Freedom Squares Squares

Explained 2 169.238416 84.6192079 27.2189 < 0.0001Unexplained 19 59.0679661 3.10884032

CoefficientStandard

t-Value p-ValueConfidence Interval 95%

Regression Table Error Lower Upper

Constant -10.154925 6.27097683 -1.6194 0.1219 -23.28023 2.97038025Dollar/Euro 13.0549049 4.99204388 2.6151 0.0170 2.60643701 23.5033729Trade Balance -0.1516905 0.03768582 -4.0251 0.0007 -0.2305679 -0.0728132

UTi Stock Price = -10.15 + 13.0549($/euro) – 0.15169(US Trade Deficit in Billions)

If the euro falls to $1.2 and the deficit increases to -44 billion, UTi’s stock price is estimated to be $12.19

We put little credence in this prediction, as the result is an extrapolation.

Page 21: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

SELL all 249 bp of UTi Worldwide Overall Target Price: $16.50, Current Price: $14

▪ Upside of 18%, so technically we should HOLD▪ Down 15% in past week

Increased port, rail, and air freight volumes are limiting available capacity for UTi to purchase and making it more expensive

Natural disasters are increasing the costs and complexity of moving freight

An economic slowdown in Europe (Spain) will leave UTi with excess capacity and losses

Despite the upside, the opportunity cost of holding is high with other industrial stocks performing well

Page 22: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation
Page 23: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Current Price: 28.15 Target Price: 37.98 (34.9% upside) YTD performance: +14.66%

Tyco Electronics is an incredibly diverse company with products ranging from electronic components to undersea telecommunication systems. They design, manufacture and market products for customers in a broad array of industries including automotive; data communication systems and consumer electronics; telecommunications; aerospace, defense and marine; medical; energy; and lighting.

Page 24: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Electronics make up the largest chunk of sales (65%) 35% of sales from Specialty products, Subsea

communications, or network solutions

2009 sales of $10.5b to expected to increase to $11.95b this year

Majority (45%+) of sales are in US dollars Beat analysts’ expectations with EPS of $0.65

and increased guidance for Q3 of 2010. Posted a dividend of $.16 for Q3 of 2010.

Page 25: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

Year 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue 12,102 13,917 15,727 17,771 19,726 21,699 23,434 25,075 26,579 27,908 29,025 % Grow th 15.0% 13.0% 13.0% 11.0% 10.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0%

Operating Income 1,162 1,559 1,761 1,955 2,170 2,387 2,578 2,758 2,924 3,070 3,193 Operating Margin 9.6% 11.2% 11.2% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%

Interest Income (242) (139) (157) (178) (197) (217) (234) (251) (266) (279) (290) Interest % of Sales -2.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0%

Taxes (290) (390) (440) 444 493 542 586 627 664 698 726 Tax Rate 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%

Net Income 715 1,063 1,265 1,333 1,479 1,627 1,758 1,881 1,993 2,093 2,177 % Grow th 48.6% 19.0% 5.4% 11.0% 10.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0%

Add Depreciation/Amort 605 696 786 889 986 1,085 1,172 1,254 1,329 1,395 1,451 % of Sales 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Plus/(minus) Changes WC (320) (399) (398) (391) (395) (391) (375) (351) (319) (279) (290) % of Sales -2.6% -2.9% -2.5% -2.2% -2.0% -1.8% -1.6% -1.4% -1.2% -1.0% -1.0%

Subtract Cap Ex 545 626 708 817 927 1,042 1,148 1,254 1,329 1,395 1,451 Capex % of sales 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Free Cash Flow 455 733 946 1,013 1,144 1,280 1,406 1,530 1,674 1,814 1,887 % Grow th 61.0% 29.0% 7.1% 12.9% 11.9% 9.8% 8.8% 9.5% 8.3% 4.0%

NPV of Cash Flows 7,271 42%NPV of terminal value 9,872 58% Terminal Value 28,029 Projected Equity Value 17,142 100%Free Cash Flow Yield 3.57% Free Cash Yield 6.73%

Current P/E 17.8 12.0 10.1 Terminal P/E 12.9 Projected P/E 24.0 16.1 13.6 Current EV/EBITDA 6.3 5.0 4.4 Terminal EV/EBITDA 5.7 Projected EV/EBITDA 8.8 6.9 6.1

Shares Outstanding 454

Current Price 28.15$ 2.3%Implied equity value/share 37.80$ Upside/(Downside) to DCF 34.3%

Dividend Yield

Page 26: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

  3.5 3.75 4 4.25 4.5

10 50.3 54.2 58.4 63 68

10.25 45 48 52 56 61

10.5 39.1 42.3 45.8 49.5 53.6

10.75 34 37 40.1 43.6 47.2

11 29.3 32 34.3 38 41.4

11.25 24.9 27.4 30.1 32.9 36

11.5 20.8 23.1 25.5 28.1 30.9

11.75 16.9 19 21.3 23.7 26.2

12 13.3 15.2 17.3 19.5 21.9

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*The predictive value of these ratios is questionable because the company spun off from Tyco International in 2007

Relative To Industry Relative To Sector

Page 33: Industrial Sector  Stock Presentation

SELL

BUY

HOLD