importance of the montreal protocol for ozone layer and climate guus velders, the netherlands...
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![Page 1: Importance of the Montreal Protocol for ozone layer and climate Guus Velders, The Netherlands WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Geneva, May 19, 2008](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052504/5514c314550346b0478b489a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Importance of the Montreal Protocol for ozone layer and climate
Guus Velders, The Netherlands
WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers
Geneva, May 19, 2008
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 2
Well known benefits Montreal Protocol
Large decreases in CFC
production (90%) and
emissions (60-90%)
Concentrations also decreasing
Increases for HCFCs and HFCs
WMO (2007)
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 3
Well known benefits Montreal Protocol (2)
• Emerging evidence of start of
ozone layer recovery
• Full recovery around 2050
• Polar regions 10-25 years later
• Recovery can be affected by:– Future production CFCs, HCFCs
– Production methyl bromide
– Emissions from existing equipment
– Interaction with climate change
WMO (2007)
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 4
Montreal Protocol provided dual protection:to Ozone layer and to Climate change
Climate benefits already achieved larger than Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008-2012
Potential for additional climate benefits significant compared to Kyoto
Reason: CFCs, HCFCs are greenhouse gases Large GWPs: - CO2 : 1
- CFCs: 4,000 – 11,000
- HCFCs: 700 – 2,300
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 5
Decrease in production of CFCs
• 1974: Molina and Rowland: CFCs
affect the ozone layer- Public concern drop production
• ~1980: Increase in production:- New applications
- Growth in Asia and Europe
• 1987: Montreal Protocol:- Restricting prod/use CFCs, halons
• 2010: Global production stop CFC
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 6
Production scenarios
Baseline:- current Montreal Protocol- in agreement with observations- used in WMO (2007)
Without 1974 paper
Molina and Rowland:
3-7% annual growth
Without 1987
Montreal Protocol:
2-3% annual growth
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 7
Concentration scenarios
• Delays compared to prod/emis.
due to long lifetimes
• Exponential growth without early
warning in 1974
• Continued growth without
Montreal Protocol
Velders et al., PNAS, 2007
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 8
Effect on ozone layer
• Mid-latitude: EESC back to 1980-
levels around 2050
• Polar region: EESC back to 1980-
levels around 2065:– Older age of air in polar vortex
• Large ozone depletion without
Montreal Protocol and
amendments
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 9
Ozone layer recovery
• Largest potential reductions:– Destruction of banks of CFCs– Destruction of banks of halons– Limiting future production of HCFCs
• Interaction with climate change:– Cooling upper stratosphere ozone increase– Cooling lower stratosphere more activation on PSC
ozone destruction– Circulation changes
Overall effect uncertain
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 10
Effects on climate
World avoided by the Montreal Protocol
Reduction Montreal Protocol of ~11 GtCO2-eq/yr
5-6 times Kyoto target
(incl. offsets: HFCs, ozone depl.)
CO2 emissions
Velders et al., PNAS, 2007
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 11
Radiative forcing leading to climate change
Reduction in radiative forcing of
~0.23 Wm-2 in 2010
about 13% of CO2 emissions
of human activities
Velders et al., PNAS, 2007
Forcing: delay of ~10 years cf CO2 emissions
10 years
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 12
Ozone-depleting substances not in Kyoto
Total target Kyoto: about 2 GtCO2-eq/yr
• CFCs not included in Kyoto Protocol– Already covered and soon to be phased out– Benefits for polluting countries– Separate protocols– Negative offset potentially large
• With Montreal Protocol, CFCs likely included in Kyoto Protocol, but:
– Effects at least 10 years later– Starting at much higher baseline– Harder to eliminate
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 13
Offsetting the climate benefits
• About 80% of ozone depleting-substances replaced by non-fluorocarbons
• Substitute gases for CFCs– HFCs and HCFCs– HFC emissions: 0.9 GtCO2-eq/yr by 2010 (IPCC)
• Negative radiative forcing of ozone depletion– IPCC estimate of -0.05 +/- 0.05 W/m2 for 1979-2005
• Total offsets about 30% of direct forcing
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 14
Montreal 2007 adjustment: HCFC phase-out
September 21, 2007 in Montreal:• Adjustment of Montreal Protocol: accelerated HCFC phase-out
• Climate effects taken into account
• Developed countries:– Phase-out from 2030 2020 (+ intermediate reductions targets)
• Developing countries:– Freeze in 2012
– Phase-out from 2040 2030 (+ intermediate reductions targets)
– Base level from 2015 average 2009-2010
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 15
Montreal 2007 adjustment: HCFC phase-out
Recovery ozone layer ~3 years
earlier
Reduction in emissions:
• 7-9 Mtonnes HCFCs
• 0.35-0.45 MtCFC-11-eq
• 12-15 GtCO2-eq ~100 million
cars per year
• Effects depend on alternatives
being used
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 16
Possible additional benefits
• Better containment in
refrigeration
• Destruction of ODS banks
• Alternatives with lower GWPs
• Potential reductions:(by 2015 in GtCO2-eq/yr)
– CFCs: 0.12
– HCFCs: partly done
– HFC-23: 0.30 (by-product)
– HFCs: 0.44 (alternative . chemicals)
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 17
Conclusions
Montreal Protocol provided dual protection:
to Ozone layer and to Climate change
• Already achieved climate benefits 5-6 times larger than Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008-2012
• Montreal Protocol: delay in CO2-forcing of ~10 years
• Montreal 2007 adjustment:– Emissions reduced by 12-15 GtCO2-eq (depends on replacements)
– Ozone layer recovery ~3 years earlier
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 18
Conclusions (2)
• Potential for additional climate benefits significant compared to Kyoto Protocol targets (2008-2012):– Better containment in refrigeration– Destruction of CFCs, HCFC in exiting refrigerators, foams– Alternatives with lower GWPs
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Guus Velders, Montreal Protocol and Climate 19
Thank you foryour attention
Study in close collaboration with:
Stephen Andersen (EPA)John Daniel (NOAA)David Fahey (NOAA)Mack McFarland (DuPont)