impact of new voters in ge13

11th April 2013

GE13: Impact of New Voters

Differentiate between Nett and Gross Increase in the # of Voters

2

Nett Increase = Number of Voters in GE2013 – Number of Voters in

GE2008 orNumber of Newly Registered voters Since GE2008

minus Number of Voters who have been deleted from the electoral roll

Gross Increase = Newly Registered or First Time Voters since 2008

Gross Increase is more important than nett increase since these are the first time voters who are more likely to be ‘swing’ voters in GE2013

3

GE2008 GE2013 Nett Increase

GE 2013 Gross Increase

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

10.9 10.99.6

2.43.7

Million

Nett Increase from GE2008 to GE2013 is 2.4mGross Increase from GE2008 to GE2013 is 3.7m

13.3 13.3

Nett Increase First

Time Voters

First Time Voters constitute 28% of total voters in GE2013

4

SELANGORJOHORPERAKSABAH

SARAWAKKEDAH

KELANTANPENANG

W.P KUALA LUMPURPAHANG

TERENGGANUNEGERI SEMBILAN

MELAKAPERLIS

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

1.391.16

1.040.720.810.77

0.670.630.590.53

0.470.40

0.320.11

0.660.45

0.370.29

0.280.27

0.250.22

0.220.21

0.17

0.160.12

0.03

GE2008 Voters New Voters

Selangor has the highest number of new voters at 0.66m, followed by Johor at 0.45m and Perak at 0.37m

5

State New Voters Since GE2008# Voters Q4 2012

% New Voters

SELANGOR 0.66 2.05 32%JOHOR 0.45 1.61 28%PERAK 0.37 1.41 27%SABAH 0.29 1.01 29%SARAWAK 0.28 1.09 26%KEDAH 0.27 1.04 26%KELANTAN 0.25 0.92 27%PENANG 0.22 0.85 26%W.P KUALA LUMPUR 0.22 0.81 27%PAHANG 0.21 0.74 28%TERENGGANU 0.17 0.64 27%NEGERI SEMBILAN 0.16 0.56 29%MELAKA 0.12 0.44 27%PERLIS 0.03 0.14 23%

Selangor has the highest number of new voters at 0.66m, followed by Johor at 0.45m and Perak at 0.37m

6

NEGERIPARLIAMENT

CODEPARLIAMENT

NAME TOTAL

VOTERS NewVotersSince200

8% New Voters

SELANGOR

P107 SUBANG 128,677 54915 42.7%

SELANGOR

P101 HULU LANGAT 127,537 47328 37.1%

SELANGOR

P102 SERDANG 133,265 46374 34.8%

SELANGOR

P109 KAPAR 144,369 42344 29.3%

SELANGOR

P111 KOTA RAJA 105,995 41086 38.8%

SELANGOR

P103 PUCHONG 107,135 39145 36.5%

JOHOR P159 PASIR GUDANG 101,121 36626 36.2%

SELANGOR

P98 GOMBAK 123,483 36311 29.4%

JOHOR P162 GELANG PATAH 106,864 35537 33.3%

SELANGOR

P97 SELAYANG 106,055 35340 33.3%

Top 10 parliament seats by # of new voters8 of them are in Selangor

7

Top 10 parliament seats by % of new voters

NEGERIPARLIAMENT

CODEPARLIAMENT

NAME TOTAL

VOTERS NewVotersSince20

08% New Voters

W.P KUALA LUMPUR

P125 PUTRAJAYA

15,798 9940 62.9%

KEDAH P4 LANGKAWI

37,605 21137 56.2%

SELANGOR P107 SUBANG 128,677 54915 42.7%

SELANGOR P111 KOTA RAJA 105,995 41086 38.8%

JOHOR P158 TEBRAU

90,601 34444 38.0%

KEDAH P8 POKOK SENA

80,916 30349 37.5%

PAHANG P85 PEKAN

80,389 30092 37.4%

SELANGOR P101 HULU LANGAT 127,537 47328 37.1%

SARAWAK P197KOTA

SAMARAHAN38,221

14162 37.1%

KEDAH P9 ALOR STAR

69,189 25538 36.9%

8

Who registered the new voters?Starting Letter

Registration Method / Agency

G Post Office Electronically

H Post Office Hard Copy

J Government Agency (JASA and KEMAS)

K Police

N Political Parties (BN and PR)

O Non-Government Organizations

P State Election Commission office

U Mobile EC unit

Z Army

I, L, M, S Unsure

9

Political parties registered 34%, followed post office at 29%, followed by SPR at 20% and JASA at 10%

StatePost Office (G+H) SPR (P+U)

Political Parties (N) JASA (J)

Police+Army (K+Z) Others

JOHOR 26.4% 19.5% 36.5% 9.9% 4.0% 3.7%

KEDAH 22.1% 15.2% 47.4% 9.6% 4.5% 1.3%

KELANTAN 18.0% 18.9% 44.7% 14.0% 2.9% 1.5%

MELAKA 21.5% 28.2% 28.1% 13.4% 7.2% 1.5%NEGERI SEMBILAN 23.6% 32.8% 23.6% 9.0% 9.8% 1.3%

PAHANG 27.4% 21.9% 35.0% 7.7% 6.5% 1.5%

PERAK 29.8% 18.2% 34.6% 9.4% 6.5% 1.5%

PERLIS 14.6% 33.5% 18.2% 24.5% 7.2% 2.0%PULAU PINANG 31.7% 13.0% 40.1% 9.8% 3.2% 2.1%

SABAH 30.5% 22.8% 22.9% 17.2% 4.8% 1.9%

SARAWAK 37.8% 21.4% 25.4% 9.3% 5.3% 0.8%

SELANGOR 33.9% 18.7% 33.8% 9.4% 2.6% 1.6%TERENGGANU 36.6% 16.5% 38.6% 4.9% 2.6% 0.7%W.P KUALA LUMPUR 32.3% 17.7% 30.7% 5.6% 12.7% 0.9%

Grand Total 29.2% 19.8% 34.2% 10.1% 5.0% 1.7%

10

375k voters registered by JASA since 2008GE

State Post Office (G+H) SPR (P+U) Political Parties (N) JASA (J)Police+Army (K+Z) Others Total

JOHOR 119112 88046 164204 44442 17982 16584 450370

KEDAH 59403 40873 127562 25858 12038 3433 269167

KELANTAN 45146 47357 112234 35119 7391 3718 250965

MELAKA 25688 33694 33528 16046 8572 1832 119360NEGERI SEMBILAN 37913 52722 37911 14411 15696 2033 160686

PAHANG 56819 45279 72479 15983 13427 3115 207102

PERAK 111571 68073 129305 35058 24377 5791 374175

PERLIS 4578 10497 5690 7673 2266 641 31345PULAU PINANG 70047 28638 88486 21736 7084 4686 220677

SABAH 88366 66009 66215 49791 13804 5443 289628

SARAWAK 105231 59505 70511 25850 14748 2215 278060

SELANGOR 223046 122920 222597 62186 16932 10630 658311

TERENGGANU 61770 27884 64997 8305 4409 1201 168566W.P KUALA LUMPUR 70500 38646 67001 12320 27832 2028 218327

Grand Total 1079190 730143 1262720 374778 186558 63350 3696739

11

Why should we be fearful of JASA registrations?

Director is Dato Fuad Hassan, former

UMNO ADUN for Hulu Klang, lost to Azmin

Ali in 1999

Propaganda Unit under the Minister of

Information

12

JASA and KEMAS were specially rewarded in the 2012 Budget

13

Examples of why we should be fearful of JASA registrations

• For example, 567 Kod 71 J Registration New Voters in Selangor without house numbers

• All are in urban areas with a majority of voters with house numbers and street names

• Many of the J registrations are in sequence• Many of these voters only have one name

(most probably Indonesian origin)• For example, 737 Kod J Registration New

Voters in Johor without house numbers including 52 in Kpg Melayu Majidee in Johor Bahru

14

NoSiri IC

ICLama Nama

NoRumah NamaLokaliti

NamaParlimen NamaDM

Nosiriborang

506830325715024 SUKMASARY BINTI SUHERMAN -

JLN 1-6 LEMBAH JAYA AMPANG

LEMBAH JAYA UTARA J254001

321700327715196

8518135 RATNADEWI BINTI ZAINUDDIN -



525840929715024 ASWITA BINTI SUHERMAN -



16380819715264

8518060 RAIMAH BINTI BAHARUDIN -



148590518715135

8318714 SUDAR BIN BUSAIRI -



232650428715213

8321409 SUWARDI BIN SYAMSUDDIN -



204630709715473

8430624 ZULFADLI BIN NURDIN -



190620413715627

8440948 AKIRUDDIN BIN SAHAR -



164600727715525

8517375

BACHTIAR EFFENDI BIN KALIMO -



325700804715202 FITRA NENGSIH BINTI ALI -



162600514715935

8514448 RAMLAN BIN KANDIH -



326700816715197 BUDNADIR BIN HASAN BASRI -



461800703715092

SUPERIATNI BINTI ZAINAL ABIDIN -



111560630715242

8512375 SUARNI BINTI THAHER -



360720725715165 FAISAL BIN SYAMSUAR -



347710904715022 ALVINA BINTI ALIMIN -



263661203715072

8511922 ISMAWATI BINTI M KASIM -



383731210715223

8471703 ZUARMAN BIN MARLIS -



299680901715356

8530847

NURUL HASANAH BINTI ABDUL MANAN -



Sample from P99 Ampang: No Address, Kod 71

15

IC ICLama NamaNamaParlimen NamaDUN Nosiriborang

640805715173

8446754 SAPRI GOMBAK BATU CAVES J0373728

620907715467

8443078 BUANG AMPANG BUKIT ANTARABANGSA J192569

570421715413

8440625 SULAIMAN AMPANG BUKIT ANTARABANGSA J192661

640408715313

8448927 JASULI AMPANG BUKIT ANTARABANGSA J192586

790626715067 SALIS AMPANG BUKIT ANTARABANGSA J192644440104715000

8355522 ASNIAH AMPANG BUKIT ANTARABANGSA J0657676

570504715128

8449183 DANIYAH AMPANG BUKIT ANTARABANGSA J192566

640226715048

8448385

JUM'ANIYAH AMPANG BUKIT ANTARABANGSA J192591

780615715011 HODRI AMPANG BUKIT ANTARABANGSA J192580720102715169

8334530 RAMLAN AMPANG BUKIT ANTARABANGSA J0061933

620914715094

8443967 SUNAYYAH SERDANG BALAKONG J221506

820220715010 ELLISAH KELANA JAYA SERI SETIA J0657034

Sample of One Name Kod 71 Voters Registered by JASA with no house numbers

16

IC ICLama NamaNoRumah NamaLokaliti

NamaParlimen

Nosiriborang

650304715545

8401374 SUPNI BIN SAWAL -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE

JOHOR BAHRU J0746186

730416715064

8536672 MASNIYAH BINTI MUTO -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


660613715150

8437791 LUTFIAH BINTI PAGI -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


470711715069

8300382 SUDURI BIN DAMAM -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


580310715209

8326621 MATAN BIN EMRAN -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


700214715173

MHD SAUFI BIN SAMSUDDIN -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


720811715073 SULPA BIN HATNABI -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


530821715045

8478207

MUHAMMAD BIN DAHLAN -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


650315715006

8318724 RUHAYYAH BINTI SUPPAR -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


640426715093

8467112 SULMAN BIN YUSUF -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


700416715235

8560417 SAYADI BIN MIN'ARI -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


680308715195

8405063 FAHER BIN MUNIB -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


590703715196

8527283 SATINAH BINTI MARLIDIN -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


590513715056

8326527 RUSMAWATI BINTI ASMUI -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


590627715425

8337474 SUJAK BIN KAMARI -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


700701715007 RUSDI BIN ABU BAKAR -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


560602715085

8315409 BUGAWE BIN SUJAE -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


561003715002

8417058 MASAH BINTI ISMAEL -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


610617715339

8545689 ALI UMAR BIN TAHER -

KG MELAYU MAJIDEE


Sample of Kod 71 Voters Registered by JASA with no house numbers in Kg Melayu Majidee in Johor Bahru

17

Urge genuine voters to turn out to voteHighlight areas with a large number of

potentially dubious votersPrepare lists of potentially dubious voters

to polling agents especially in the marginal seats

What can we do???

impact of new voters in ge13

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