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CHAPTER 3

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

In years past, there was substantial debate over the existence of global

warming, today, the debate is largely over. A consensus has emerged in the global

scientific community that global climate change (GCC) is occurring and that it will

have a dramatic and adverse impact on ecosystems1, nonhuman species populations,

and human populations.2

Global climate change poses great risks to the planet’s existing life-support

systems and conditions. Nearly all of the adverse consequences of climate change -

reduced regional food yields, freshwater shortages, increased frequency of extreme

weather events, coastal population displacement, changes in the ecology3 and

geography of infectious agents, declines in farming community incomes, and

biodiversity losses with accompanying disruption of ecosystem functions - will

converge adversely on human biology and health. Climate change, ultimately, is a

threat to our biological health and survival.4

3.1 Impact assessment

The evolution of global change science is evident in changing notions of

climate change impact. The meaning and depiction of ‘impact’ have evolved with

assumptions about the nature of climate change, who or what is at risk, available

resources for understanding and addressing risk, and the composition of the

assessment audience. Over the past 30 years, national and local governments, non-

governmental organizations, research institutions, and intergovernmental bodies have

sponsored and engaged in processes commonly known as climate change assessments

- social processes in which scientists, often with input from policy makers and other

interested parties, convene to produce, negotiate, and pull together knowledge about

1 An ecosystem is a community of living organisms in conjunction with the nonliving components of their environment, interacting as a system. These biotic and abiotic components are regarded as linked together through nutrient cycles and energy flows. The boundaries of what could be called an ecosystem are somewhat arbitrary, depending on the focus of interest or study. Thus, the extent of an ecosystem may range from very small spatial scales to, ultimately, the entire Earth. 2Denis G. Arnold and Keith Bustos, “Business, Ethics, and Global Climate Change”, Business & Professional Ethics Journal, Vol. 24, No. 1/2, The Roots of the Obligation of Business to Preserve the Environment (Spring/Summer 2005), pp. 103-130. 3 Ecology is the scientific study of interactions among organisms and their environment, such as the interactions organisms have with each other and with their abiotic environment. 4Anthony J. McMichael and Keith B. G. Dear, “Climate change: Heat, health, and longer horizons”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 107, No. 21 (May 25, 2010), pp. 9483-9484.

47

the nature of, consequences of, and responses to, climate change. Generally, these

processes produce a report or other document. Many such reports focus on the

category of climate impact, which generally refers to the risks and consequences that

are arising or could arise from a gradual warming of the Earth.5

Over the past 30 years, global change assessments on climate change, have

gradually employed more complicated conceptual models that attempt to account for

the interaction of climate change with other forms of global change (ozone depletion,

pollution, biodiversity loss) and with society (National Assessment Synthesis Team,

2000, 2001; Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004, 2005). Earlier assessments

focused on economic and health losses but recent assessments recognize cultural and

social forms of loss also.6

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific

intergovernmental body, set up at the request of member governments. It was first

established in 1988 by two United Nations Organizations, the World Meteorological

Organization (WMO)7 and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and

later endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly.

The IPCC. produces reports8 that support the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)9, which is the main international treaty on

5Marybeth Long Martello, “Arctic Indigenous Peoples as Representations and Representatives of Climate Change”, Social Studies of Science, Vol. 38, No. 3 (Jun., 2008), pp. 351-376 6Ibid 7The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 191 Member States and Territories. It originated from the International Meteorological Organization (IMO), which was founded in 1873. Established in 1950, WMO became the specialised agency of the United Nations for meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences. 8The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, nor does it do the work of monitoring climate

or related phenomena itself. The IPCC bases its assessment on the published literature, which includes peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed sources.

The IPCC provides an internationally accepted authority on climate change, producing reports which have the agreement of leading climate scientists and the consensus of participating governments. The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was shared, in two equal parts, between the IPCC and Al Gore. IPCC Assessment reports:

The IPCC has published four comprehensive assessment reports reviewing the latest climate science, as well as a number of special reports on particular topics. These reports are prepared by teams of relevant researchers selected by the Bureau from government nominations. Drafts of these reports are made available for comment in open review processes to which anyone may contribute.

The IPCC published its first assessment report in 1990, a supplementary report in 1992, a second assessment report (SAR) in 1995, and a third assessment report (TAR) in 2001. A fourth assessment report (AR4) was released in 2007 and a fifth is due to be issued in 2014.

Each assessment report is in three volumes, corresponding to Working Groups I, II, and III. Unqualified, “the IPCC report” is often used to mean the Working Group I report, which covers the basic science of climate change.

48

climate change. IPCC reports cover “the scientific, technical and socio-economic

information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced

climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.”

The aims of the IPCC are to assess scientific information relevant to:

1. Human-induced climate change,

2. The impacts of human-induced climate change,

3. Options for adaptation and mitigation.

The scientific community believes that they are already seeing the effects and

the emphasis on having to deal with the impacts of climate change have been

reinforced and become more acute. Therefore, all countries, and particularly the

developing ones, need to take the issue of adaptation as a response much more

seriously and prominently than in the past. That’s the new development with respect

to the science of climate change.

3.2 Impact of Climate Change and Global Warming

Global climate change is one of the most important challenges facing the

international community today. Scientists have presented overwhelming evidence that

climate change is indeed occurring, that human activity has contributed to the

problem, and that it will have far-reaching implications for ecosystems, including

human settlements.10

The human systems that are highly susceptible to climate change are water

resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy production, industry, insurance and

other financial services, and human health (particularly a net increase in the

geographic range of malaria and dengue). Because of the limits to human tolerance of

heat, much of Earth’s surface may not be habitable by 2300. The high-profile threats

such as sea level rise and economic slowdown have caused widespread anxieties; their

impacts on human communities would pale into insignificance in a world that might,

thermally, become partly or wholly uninhabitable by humans.11

A nation’s ability to cope with and adapt to climate change depends on such

9 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC) is an international environmental treaty negotiated at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992. The objective of the treaty is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. 10 Idean Salehyan, “Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet”, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 45, No. 3 (May, 2008), pp. 315-326. 11

Anthony J. McMichael and Keith B. G. Dear, supra note 4, pp. 9483-9484

49

factors as wealth, available technology, education, access to information, skills,

infrastructure, access to resources, and management capabilities. The most important

thing to note is that the impacts of future climate change will most likely be

disproportionately borne by the world’s poor.12

The reports of IPCC indicate that developing countries would be affected by

climate change disproportionately and poor countries in particular and poor people in

all countries would be severely affected due to the observed changes in many physical

and biological systems explained below:

3.2.1 Temperature

Although local temperatures fluctuate naturally, over the past 50 years the

average global temperature has increased at the fastest rate in recorded history.

Carbon dioxide and other air pollutants that are collecting in the atmosphere like a

thickening blanket, trapping the sun’s heat and causing the planet to warm up.

In a major report prepared for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for

Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analysts, the rise in temperature will

trigger a cascade of cataclysmic changes that include extreme heat-waves, declining

global food stocks and a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people.13 The

experts think the trend is accelerating. The 10 hottest years on record have all

occurred since 1990 and scientists say that unless we curb global warming emissions,

average temperatures could be 3 to 9 degrees higher by the end of the century.14

Global warming is the observed increase in the average temperature of the

Earth’s atmosphere and oceans in recent decades. The Earth’s average near surface

atmospheric temperature rose 0.6 +0.2 Celsius (1.1= 0.40 Fahrenheit) in the 20th

century. The prevailing scientific opinion on climate change is that “most of the

warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”

Concentrations of greenhouse gases could exceed 700 ppm 2100 under

“business as usual” levels not seen on the planet for 50 million years. The projected

temperature increase of 1 to 3.6oC over the next 100 years could exceed rates of

change for the last 10,000 years.15

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), representing the work of 12 Denis G. Arnold and Keith Bustos, supra note 2, pp. 103-130. 13 ‘Earth will be warmer by 4oC, says WB’, Deccan Herald, Nov.20, 2012, p.14. 14 www.nrdc.org/globalwarming accessed on 4th October, 2011. 15 Stuart E. Eizenstat, “The Kyoto Protocol: A Framework for Action”, Focus, Global Issues Electronic Journal, May, 1998, pp. 6-7.

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more than 2,000 of the world’s leading climate change scientists from more than 50

countries, concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible

human influence on global climate. It projects that “the globally averaged surface air

temperature is projected to warm 1.4 to 5.8o C by 2100 relative to 1990.” This

warming trend is projected to continue at a rate of about 0.1 to 0.2 o C per decade for

the next few decades.

The IPCC has also found evidence indicating that regional changes in

temperature have already affected a variety of physical and biological systems

worldwide, such as shrinking glaciers16, lengthening of mid to high-latitude growing

seasons, pole ward migration of plant and animal ranges, and declines of some plant

and animal populations. Generally speaking, an increase in average global

temperatures is likely (sixty to ninety percent chance) to lead to altered weather

patterns resulting in a greater risk of droughts (due to extreme drying) and floods (due

to intense rainfall events) in many different regions, and the global mean sea level is

projected to rise between 0.09 to 0.88 meters by 2100.17

According to a report, by the PIK and Climate Analysts for the World Bank:

the increase in temperature could result in sea-level rise by 0.5 to 1 meter by 2100,

with higher levels also possible, affecting some of the most highly vulnerable cities

located in Mozambique, Madagascar, Mexico, Venezuela, India, Bangladesh,

Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

The report says the 4o C scenarios are potentially devastating: the inundation

of coastal cities; increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher

under and malnutrition rates; many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter;

unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics; substantially

exacerbated water scarcity in many regions; increased intensity of tropical cyclones;

and irreversible loss of biodiversity, including coral reef18 systems.19

Thus, an increase in global temperatures can in turn cause other changes,

16 A mass of land ice that flows downhill under gravity (through internal deformation and/or sliding at the base) and is constrained by internal stress and friction at the base and sides. A glacier is maintained by accumulation of snow at high altitudes, balanced by melting at low altitudes or discharge into the sea. 17Denis G. Arnold and Keith Bustos, supra note 2, pp. 103-130. 18 Coral reefs are underwater structures made from calcium carbonate secreted by corals. Coral reefs are colonies of tiny animals found in marine waters that contain few nutrients. Often called “rainforests of the sea”, coral reefs form some of the most diverse ecosystems on Earth. They occupy less than 0.1% of the world’s ocean surface, about half the area of France, yet they provide a home for 25% of all marine species. 19 “Earth will be warmer by 4oC, says WB”, Deccan Herald, Nov.20, 2012, p.14.

51

including a rising sea level and changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation.

These changes may increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events,

such as floods, droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and tornados. Other consequences

include higher or lower agricultural yields, glacial retreat, reduced summer stream

flows, species extinctions and increases in the ranges of disease vectors. Warming is

expected to affect the number and magnitude of these events; however, it is difficult

to connect particular events to global warming.20

3.2.2 Glaciers and Polar Regions

The rapid retreat of glaciers is one of the most visible signs of Earth’s

changing climate, but the disappearance of the ice is altering far more than the

physical landscape. An analysis suggests that species that live in the streams and

rivers that flow from melting glaciers could begin to vanish when just half of the

glacial cover in a region is lost.21

On a time scale, recent glaciations occurred around 20,000 years ago as part of

the earth’s paleoclimatic22 history. Although some scientists have suggested that the

recession of glaciers is a natural phenomenon, an increase in the rate of retreat has

been observed in most glaciers around the world.23

According to climatologists, mountain glaciers are particularly sensitive

indicators of climate change. The volume of ice in a glacier and correspondingly its

surface area, thickness, and length - is determined by the balance between input

(accumulation of snow and ice) and output (melting, evaporation and calving).

Temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and other factors such as slope and

the reflectivity of the glacier surface, all affect the balance.

The rate of retreat in recent times has, however, been much more rapid than

the gradual retreat expected in an inter-glacial warming phase. This, glaciologists and

climatologists believe, is due to global warming. This climatic change brought about

by human or anthropogenic activity in the post-industrialization period has already

resulted in a global increase in the average surface temperature by 0.6° C. A natural

20 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/global-warming accessed on 29th September 2010. 21 “Retreating ice leaves species on the rocks”, Deccan Herald, March 27, 2012, Spectrum, p. 4. 22 Palaeoclimate: Climate during periods prior to the development of measuring instruments, including historic and geologic time, for which only proxy climate records are available. 23 Prakash Rao, “Himalayas Retreat of the glaciers”, The Hindu Survey of the Environment, 2007, pp. 19-20.

52

consequence of this is increased melt from ice caps24 and glaciers.

The Polar Regions25, for present purposes, comprise the frozen oceans of the

Arctic and the Greenland ice cap, together with the continent of Antarctica. Various

reports suggest that temperature increases, will be greatest at the higher latitudes,

which has given rise to fears concerning the collapse of the polar ice-sheets, with the

consequence of a disastrous effect in terms of sea level rise.

With global warming, the glaciers are melting. Once stretching to the edge of

town, they now end high in the mountains.26 Ice is melting all over the planet and the

Glaciers are melting on six continents. If present warming trends continue, all glaciers

in Glacier National Park could be gone by 2030. The Park’s Grinnell Glacier is

already 90% gone and the glaciers of the Ruwenzori range in Uganda are in massive

retreat. The Bering Glacier, North America’s largest glacier, has lost 7 miles of its

length, while losing 20-25% of parts of the glacier. 27

Greenland’s glaciers are moving more rapidly to the sea, caused, perhaps, by

melt water lubricating the base of the glaciers. The Tasman Glacier in New Zealand

has thinned by more than 100 meters in the past century. Glaciers in New Zealand

have shrunk about 26% between 1890 and 1998. Portage Glacier in the Chugach

National Forest, south of Anchorage, is another casualty of climate change, say

scientists at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. These researchers found that melting

glaciers are responsible for at least 9 percent of the global sea level rise over the past

century.28

Arctic sea ice plays a key role to help keep Polar Regions cool and helps

control the global climate system. As the ice has a bright surface, it reflects about

80% of the sunlight that hits it back into space.29 But the Arctic region is now

experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on earth as the

Greenhouse gases are causing the arctic to warm more rapidly than the rest of the

planet; the sea ice cap has shrunk about 40% since the early 1980s. That means an

area of the Arctic Ocean the size of Europe has become dark, open water in the

24 A dome shaped ice mass, usually covering a highland area, which is considerably smaller in extent than an ice sheet. 25 Earth’s Polar Regions are the areas of the globe surrounding the poles also known as frigid zones. The North Pole and South Pole being the centers, these regions are dominated by the polar ice caps, resting respectively on the Arctic Ocean and the continent of Antarctica. 26 ‘Melting glaciers make Alpine mountains rumble’, Deccan Herald, June 6, 2013, p.11 27 http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g-evd.htm accessed on 09-06-11 28 Ibid 29 ‘Arctic sea ice set to hit record low’, Deccan Herald, Aug. 22, 2012, p. 14.

53

summer instead of reflective ice, absorbing extra heat and then releasing it to the

atmosphere in the fall and early winter.30

The consequences of losing the Arctic’s ice coverage, even for only part of the

year, could be profound. Ocean temperatures will rise and methane31 deposits on the

ocean floor could melt, evaporate and bubble into the atmosphere. Scientists have

uncovered thousands of sites in the Arctic where methane which has been trapped for

many millennia is seeping out into the atmosphere, which may adversely impact

climate change.32 With the disappearance of sea ice around the shores of Greenland,

its glaciers could melt faster and raise sea levels even more rapidly than at present33

and if the sea-ice cover of the Arctic became seasonal or disappeared, many animal

species, such as the polar bear, would be eliminated. The impact upon the marine

plankton,34 and hence on the food chain, which is at present unpredictable.35 Thus,

changes in the arctic climate will also affect the rest of the world through increased

global warming and rising sea levels.36

It has been recognized that a significant reduction in the extent and persistence

of sea-ice in either polar region would have profound consequences for marine

ecosystems. Additionally, as ice and snow melt, avalanches and floods from the build-

up of potentially unstable glacial lakes are possible. Meanwhile, less snow and sea ice

means that more of the sun’s heat will be absorbed by land and polar oceans, which in

turn will speed up global warming. Over the next 100 years, climate change is

expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and

economic changes, many of which have already begun.

In India

Most glaciers, however, are more sensitive to temperature than to other

climatic factors. The central and eastern Himalayan glaciers are particularly so

because of the monsoon-driven climatic conditions in the region. “Unlike glaciers of

30 ‘Greenhouse gases warm the Arctic, creating ripples’, Deccan Herald, April 3, 2012, p. 11. 31 Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after CO2 and is one of the reasons behind global warming across the world. 32 ‘Arctic melt bubbling out ancient methane’, Deccan Herald, May 22, 2012, p. 11. 33 ‘Arctic sea ice may vanish in 10 yrs’, Deccan Herald, August 14, 2012, p. 14. 34 Microorganisms living in the upper layers of aquatic systems. A distinction is made between phytoplankton, which depend on photosynthesis for their energy supply, and zooplankton, which feed on phytoplankton. 35 Michel Bowman, Global Warming and the International Legal Protection of Wildlife, Edt by Robin Churchill & David Freestone, International Law and Global Climate Change, 1st edn, Boston: Graham & Trotman Publishers Group, 1991. p. 133. 36

Marybeth Long Martello, supra note 5, p. 367.

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Europe and other higher latitudes, both accumulation (because of precipitation in

higher elevations as snow) and ablation in these parts occur during summer months,

making them very sensitive to temperature changes. The Karakoram glaciers of the

Western Himalayas (the Siachen glacier belongs to this class) are, however, more like

the European glaciers with accumulation in winter and ablation in summer.”

The Himalayan region has the largest concentration of glaciers outside the

polar caps. With glacier coverage of 33,000 sq km, the region is aptly called the

“Water Tower of Asia”, as it provides around 86,000,000 cubic meters of water

annually. These Himalayan glaciers feed seven of Asia’s greatest rivers; the Ganga,

the Indus, the Brahmaputra, the Salween that passes through China and Myanmar, the

Mekong, the Yangtze and the Huang Ho. They ensure a year-round water supply

about 1 billion people. The changes in climate variability have led to a rapid retreat of

mountain glacier systems, which are considered the lifeline of river basins and

ecosystems. Scientific studies have shown that 67 percent of glaciers are retreating at

a startling rate in the Himalayas as a result of various factors including climate

change. Such changes in average global surface temperatures can have serious conse-

quences on the stability of the glacial systems.

The impact of global warming is perhaps already upon the Himalayas. The

30.2-km-long Gangotri glacier, the second largest among the 6,500-odd small and

large glaciers in the Himalayas and which feeds the perennial Ganga, is receding at a

rate that is worrying. This has been a cause of concern to both the scientific

community as well as the common public. The rate of retreat in the last three decades

has been found to be more than three times the rate during the earlier 200 years or so.

From a detailed quantitative analysis of the geomorphological features of the

Gangotri, a team of geologists from HNB Garhwal University has concluded that the

retreat has become much faster than it was before 1971.

A 1999 report by the Working Group on Himalayan Glaciology (WGHG) of

the International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI), constituted in 1995, said:

“Glaciers in the Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and,

if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is

very high.”37

Research shows that the past 100 years have been the hottest period in 1,000

37 www.frontlineonline.com/fl1807/18070690.htm accessed on 5/5/2011

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years high in the Himalayas. The melting of the Gangotri Glacier in India is

accelerating with an average rate of retreat of 30 meters annually. The immediate or

short-term impact of a receding Gangotri (or any other large glacier) would be an

increased risk of glacial hazards, such as incidents of landslips, changes in the courses

of rivers and floods. The higher melt means more discharge into rivers and reservoirs.

Already there is evidence to this effect, there have been instances of flooding in the

Ganga basin during drought years and this is obviously because of increased melt.

This increased flow can also lead to landslips downstream by triggering unstable flow

along the area evacuated by the receding glacier because the soil, rocks and the

vegetation on them are loose and can give way to surging water easily.

The accelerated rate of glacial melt in some of the important glaciers in the

Himalayan region is expected to have serious consequences for the freshwater

ecosystems of the Ganga basin with long-term impacts for biodiversity, people and

livelihoods as well as regional food security. This will not only mean repercussions on

the region’s agricultural productivity and industrial activity but also on the Terai

ecosystems and species like the Ganga River Dolphin. Given that the Ganga is the

lifeline of the millions of people who live on its banks and are solely dependent on it

for their survival, any long-term shift in the river’s hydrological regime can have

dramatic consequences for the country’s economy.

The rapid changes that the Gangotri is undergoing, and the likely long-term

impact they may cause downstream, have induced the government to initiate long-

term studies on the glacier. Interestingly, there are no time series data available on

precipitation, snowfall and temperature in the region, let alone of snow melt, run-off

and water flow, though the Gangotri is easily accessible and is a pilgrim center.38

The Uttarakhand disaster that has been witnessed at the beginning of the 2013

monsoon season is a consequence of ignorance of the ecological systems that hold up

the fragile Himalayas, and greed to profit from the exploitation of the rich natural and

cultural heritage of the region. Today the ecologically fragile Himalayas and our

sacred rivers are being ruthlessly exploited. The disaster which has led to around

5,000 deaths on current estimates and the disappearance of nearly 1 lakh people is a

wakeup call to stop the destruction of environment.39

38 Ibid 39 ‘Uttarakhand: A heavy price for reckless destruction of the Himalayas’, Deccan Herald, July 19, 2013, p. 19

56

The UN panel report warns that glaciers across the Himalayas are melting at

an alarming rate and may disappear altogether by 2035. Such an event will not only

have a severe impact on the Himalayan ecology and the people living in the region,

but also cause a wide swath of misery downstream. This is because most of India’s

great northern rivers, like the Ganga and the Yamuna, are dependent on the glaciers

for perennial water supply.40

The glaciers in Jammu and Kashmir are melting fast, by more than half a

meter every year, but its long- term impact remains unknown. Norwegian scientist

Andreas Kaab at the University of Oslo and his French colleagues used the satellite

data to study glaciers in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKKH) region,

reported “in most of the satellite images that we used to support our study, the glaciers

in J&K look really bad with not much snow accumulation area left.”41

Researchers taking a new look at snow and ice covering of Mount Everest and

the national park have also been studying temperature and precipitation trends in the

area and they found that Everest region has been warming while snowfall has been

declining continuesly. Researchers suspect that the decline of snow and ice in the

Everest region is from human generated greenhouse gases altering global climate.42

3.2.3 Sea Level

The sea level has varied sharply during the Earth’s history. For the last several

thousand years, sea level has risen so slowly that for most practical purposes it has

been considered constant. At the peak of the most recent ice age, around 18,000 years

ago, it was 130 meters lower than it is now; but through most of the planet’s history it

has been much higher. Over the past 100 years, it seems to have risen, on average, by

about 10-20 cm, but measuring that accurately has proved surprisingly hard.

Sea levels are rising for two reasons because water expands as it warms, and

because ice is melting. The most certain piece of knowledge is that the global average

sea level has been rising at about three millimeters a year.43

Global warming may raise the mean sea level significantly, primarily due to

the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The fourth assessment report by IPCC published

in 2007 concluded that the global average sea level may rise by between 18 and 59

40 Raj Chengappa, ‘Apocalypse Now’, India Today, April 23, 2007, p.42 41 ‘Glaciers in J&K melting fast, warn European scientists’, Deccan Herald, August 23, 2012, p. 8 42 ‘Impact on India,’ Deccan Herald, May 15, 2013, p 43 ‘Threat of rising sea level’, Deccan Herald, May 28, 2013, Spectrum supplement, p. 4

57

cm. Much of that was expected to come from what’s called ‘thermal expansion44’, the

physical process by which the volume of a body of water expands as it warms, as the

oceans are. But, crucially, the IPCC said that not enough was known about the other

great potential contributor to sea level rise – the melting of the polar ice sheets45 and

glaciers.46

Each degree Celsius rise in global temperatures is likely to raise world’s sea

levels by more than two meters within the next 2,000 years.47 While thermal

expansion of the ocean and melting mountain glaciers are the most important factors

causing sea level change today, the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets will be the

dominant contributors within the next two millennia. Half of that rise might come

from ice-loss in Antarctica which is currently contributing less than 10% to global

sea-level rise.48

Life along the coast is in a sensitive balance with the level of the sea. This

balance would be upset by the rise in sea level that could result in global warming,

which could raise sea level by one meter or more in the next century, due to

expanding ocean water, melting mountain glaciers, and perhaps eventually causing

polar ice sheets to melt, or slide down into the oceans. Sea level rise would inundate

low-lying areas; drown coastal marshes and swamps of, rivers, bays and aquifers

throughout the world. Rising sea level erodes beaches and coastal wetlands, inundates

low-lying areas, and increases the vulnerability of coastal area to flooding from storm

surges and intense rainfall.49

With rise in sea levels now an unequivocal certainty, island countries like the

Maldives and low-lying coastal countries like Bangladesh would experience severe

flooding and erosion of land. Vast stretches of mangroves and salt marshes would be

44 In connection with sea level, this refers to the increase in volume (and decrease in density) that result from warming water. A warming of the ocean leads to an expansion of the ocean volume and hence an increase in sea level. 45 A mass of land ice that is sufficiently deep to cover most of the underlying bedrock topography, so that its shape is mainly determined by its dynamics (the flow of the ice as it deforms internally and/or slides at its base). An ice sheet flows outward from a high central ice plateau with a small average surface slope. The margins usually slope more steeply, and most ice is discharged through fast-flowing ice streams or outlet glaciers, in some cases into the sea or into ice shelves floating on the sea. There are only three large ice sheets in the modern world, one on Greenland and two on Antarctica, the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, divided by the Trans Antarctic Mountains. During glacial periods there were others. 46 ‘Threat of rising sea level’, Deccan Herald, May 28, 2013, Spectrum supplement, p. 4 47 The oceans and ice sheets are slow in responding, simply because of their enormous mass, which is why observed sea-level rise is now measured in millimeters per year. 48 ‘Global warming may raise sea levels by over 2 meters’, Deccan Herald, July 17, 2013, p. 12 49 Dr. S. C. Deb, Environmental Management, Mumbai: Jaico Publishing House, 2003, p. 121

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destroyed across the world and, in the process, ecospheres rich in biodiversity would

disappear. Warmer ocean temperatures would result in bleaching of corals and

acidification would cause shell dissolution, seriously impacting marine life. More

worryingly, major glaciers in the high mountains across the world are melting so

rapidly that the water balance in the mega deltas supported by them is being severely

disturbed, leading to a reduction in crop yields.50

Melting of the northern hemisphere ice sheet caused a reverse flow of mantle

material and slow uplift glacial reground which continues today at rates up to 10 mm

per year. This means that in some coastal regions in North America and northern

Europe this process is of as much importance as more general sea level rises.51

The rise in sea levels has had or is expected to have calamitous impacts on

several countries.

i. Recife, Brazil: Shoreline receded by over six feet annually between 1915 and

1950 and over eight between 1985 and 1995. Senegal: Sea level rise has

caused loss of land at Rusfique on the southern coast.

ii. Rising sea levels threaten nations on low-lying islands in the Pacific and

Indian Oceans. Two uninhabited islands in the Kiribati chain have already

disappeared.

iii. Tuvalu is the first country from which people are trying to evacuate because of

rising seas. Maldives also faces evacuation. Samoa: Residents of Saoluafata

village have noticed that their coastline has retreated by 50 meters in the past

decade.

iv. Black water National Wildlife Refuge marshland on Chesapeake Bay, USA,

has seen a third of its area disappear since 1938. The rest of the marsh is

expected to be flooded in 25 years. Vietnam: Mangroves are undergoing

species change because of saltwater intrusion

The causes and effects of sea level rise are a matter of grave concern and it is

now understood that if proper steps to restrict the rise are not taken; then dangerous

consequences would result in a magnified way and affect the human life in a very

horrific manner, because it is to be clearly understood that human life would also be

50 Raj Chengappa, supra note 40, p. 42 51 William James Burroughs, Climate Change- Multidisciplinary Approach, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001, p. 126.

59

affected by the rising sea level, especially of the people in the coastal areas. Processes

other than sea level rise also contribute to the erosion process including storms,

structures currents and along shore transport.

The consequences of sea level rise are far reaching and these result in

increased coastal erosion, submergence of coastal wetland, increased damage due to

storm surges, shifting of the river mouths and deltas, salt water intrusion into the

rivers, etc. In addition, ecological damages include loss of coastal vegetation, loss of

commercial fisheries, destruction of important nursery grounds like the mangroves

and extinction of valuable coastal fauna and flora.52

In India

India has been identified as one amongst 27 countries that are most vulnerable

to sea level rise caused by global warming. The Sunderbans is a sprawling

archipelago of several hundred islands, some large, some minuscule, stretching nearly

300 km between West Bengal and Bangladesh. It is part of the world’s largest delta

(80,000 sq km) formed from sediments deposited by three great rivers-the Ganges,

Brahmaputra and Meghna-as they empty into the Bay of Bengal, and is also among

the world’s largest mangrove forests.

The Sunderbans show India’s vulnerability as the region is crisscrossed by a

maze of tidal rivers, estuaries and creeks that carry saline water nearly 300 km inland

from the Bay of Bengal. The islands are low, marshy alluvial plains that are still in the

process of being formed and reformed by continuous siltation and powerful tidal

currents. What land the waters swallow from one end, they spit out as sandbanks and

new islands at another.

Over two centuries of converting mangrove forests into paddy land, the

exploitation of the area’s natural resources, and hunting and poaching have all

contributed to the degradation of this region, making it increasingly prone to erosion

and vulnerable to storms and cyclones. The scientists, through statistical analysis of

erosion and accretion rates of the Sunderbans islands and mathematical correlation

studies, have found a link between relative rise in sea level and higher coastal erosion

rates in the region. Based on this, they have identified the 12 southernmost islands in

the region (including Ghoramara) as “most vulnerable in terms of coastal erosion,

52 P. R. Trivedi, K Chery Sudharshan, Global Climate Change: An Internal Perspective, World Environmental Science Series-4, New Delhi: Common Wealth Publications, 1995, p. 69

60

submergence and flooding”.53

In the past 20 years, the sea has claimed two islands, Lohachara and

Suparibhanga, the latter uninhabited. If scientists can be believed, Ghoramara and

Sagar are following suit. Preparatory Assessment of Vulnerability of the Ecologically

Sensitive Sunderban Island System, West Bengal, in the Perspective of Climate

Change -in 2003 in Report says annual 3.14 mm rise in sea level due to climate

change is partly responsible for eating away these islands on the southern fringes of

the Sunderbans.

Most of the rivers draining into the Sunderbans estuary have lost contact with

their original sources, and there is hardly any inflow of fresh water. During high tide,

seawater inundates the islands, but river water finds no ingress because of

embankments. This causes salt deposition, which hampers cultivation and mangrove

regeneration.

According to National Institute of Oceanography, Goa which monitors sea-

level rise, a study of its 24 stations during 1878-1994, showed nine have registered

significant rises in sea levels and an estimated of mean sea level rise from tide gauge

data at selected stations along the coast indicate a rise of less than 1 mm/year. 54

The emerald backwater stretches in Kerala and Mumbai are among several

locales on the western and eastern coasts facing threat from the rising sea level

affected by climate change. According to a government report, deltas of the Ganges,

Krishna, Godavari, Cauvery and Mahanadi on the east coast may also be affected

along with irrigated land and adjoining settlements.

“It is estimated that sea level will rise by 3.5 to 34.6 inches between 1990 and

2100 and it would result in saline coastal groundwater, endangering wetlands and

inundating valuable land and coastal communities. The most vulnerable stretches

along the western Indian coast are Khambat and Kutch in Gujarat, Mumbai and parts

of Konkan coast and south Kerala,” says the report submitted to the UN.

India’s second national communication report to the UNFCC - was prepared

by multi-disciplinary teams and other stakeholders comprising more than 220

scientists belonging to over 120 institutions. The experts who prepared the report

visited some of the vulnerable areas, including the 2004 tsunami-hit Nagapattinam in

Tamil Nadu, backwaters surrounding Kochi in Kerala and Paradip in Odisha, in order

53 Down To Earth, January 15, 2007, pp. 28-29 54 Ritu Gupta, ‘Global warming and sea level rise’, Down To Earth, Jan 15, 2007, p. 27

61

to make a detailed impact study of the rise in sea level.

The study, using digital elevation model data, digital image processing and

GIS software, showed that the rise in sea level by 1.0 m and 2.0 m will result in the

inundation of an estimated 4.2 sq km land respectively in the region surrounding

Nagapattinam. But for the same sea level conditions, 169 sq km and 599 sq km will

be inundated in the coastal region surrounding Kochi.55

Thus, it can be concluded that the problems of future sea level rise are

important not only to geomorphologists, ecologists, geographers and social scientists,

but also to governments and their agencies concerned with planning and management

of the coastal regions that will be modified by the change.

3.2.4 Oceanic Climate

The oceans are a physically interconnected unit and a dynamic system that

reaches around the globe. They offer the people of the earth myriad resources in the

form of fish, plants, and mineral resources. In spite of the benefits to be reaped from

the marine environment, we increasingly treat our waters as receptacles for garbage,

sewage, chemical effluent, and even nuclear waste. This pollution is taking its toll on

life in the oceans. Sea-bed mining has proved to be the most contentious of the issues

in the management of the deep oceans.56

Today with the increased CO2 levels, the oceans would be required to absorb

and decompose more CO2, which can raise their normal level of acidity. This would

decrease the biological productivity of marine ecosystems, thereby changing the

whole oceanic climate.57

The rise in ocean heat (and temperature) in recent decades is far faster than

anything seen earlier in Holocene.58 But the researchers say that this rise is from a

relatively cool baseline. Between 10,000 and 8,000 years ago, at depths between 500

and 1,000 meters, the Pacific Ocean was some 2o C (3.6o Fahrenheit) warmer than

today for many centuries.

Ocean heat is typically measured from buoys dispersed throughout the ocean,

55 ‘Rising sea level threatens India’s coastal areas’, Deccan Herald, June 4, 2012, p. 9 56 Alvaro Soto, ‘The Global Environment: A Southern Perspective’, International Journal, Vol. 47, No. 4, Environment & Development: Rio and After (Autumn, 1992), p. 691 57 Dr. S.C. Deb, supra note 49, p. 123 58 The Holocene is a geological epoch which began at the end of the Pleistocene and continues to the present. The Holocene is part of the Quaternary period. Its name comes from the Greek words λος and καινός, meaning “entirely recent”.

62

and with instruments lowered from ships, with reliable records at least in some places

going back to the 1960s. To look back farther in time, scientists have developed ways

to analyze the chemistry of ancient marine life to reconstruct the climates in which

they lived.59

The IPCC scientists agree that much of the heat that humans have put into the

atmosphere since the 1970s through greenhouse gas emissions probably has been

absorbed by the ocean. The oceans may be storing even more effects of human

emissions than scientists have so far realized.

With rising pollution and global warming, seafood poisoning is tightening its

death-grip. Experts estimate that up to 50,000 people worldwide suffer Ciguatera

poisoning (a food-borne illness in humans caused by eating marine species whose

flesh is contaminated with a toxin known as Ciguatoxin, present in many micro-

organisms living in tropical waters) each year, and more than 90% of these cases are

unreported, Man-popular fish types, including Groupe and Barracuda, live near coral

reefs. The warming oceans combined with toxins runoff, damage them but spare the

poison algae, say scientists. Fish take these toxic chemicals when they eat smaller fish

that graze on the poison Olli algae. And when we consume these first we take in the

poison we released. Seems like a death cycle.60

The Earth is on a trajectory to double its atmospheric carbon dioxide (above

700 ppm) by the year 2065. Scientists say that this will result in a 30% drop in the

amount of calcium that tropical oceans can retain, whereby coral growth would be

stunted by the lack of calcium in these ocean waters. This would threaten the

capability of coral to repair itself in the event of storm damage and from coral

chewing predators. Scientists say global warming has had two main effects on coral,

both potentially lethal. First, as oceans absorb more carbon dioxide, the chief green

house gas, they become more acidic. The acidity makes it more difficult for corals to

grow and may even cause them to start to dissolve. And as ocean warm, algae that

live in corals, and on which they depend may be killed. Corals globally are already so

damaged, and so threatened by further environmental degradation, that there is little

chance the restoration efforts can turn things around. “We have lost 25 per cent of the

59 ‘Oceans warm faster as they absorb emissions’, Deccan Herald, November 2, 2013, p.11 60 Down to Earth, June 30, 2007, p. 60

63

world’s corals in the last 25 years”- according to, David E. Vaughan, director of the

Center for Coral Reef Research at Mote.61

In October 2000 at the Ninth International Coral Reef Symposium, held on the

island of Bali, researchers warned that pollution and global warming have destroyed

more than 25% of the world’s coral reefs. Most of the remaining coral could be dead

in 20 years, if global warming and pollution continue. Coral reefs around the

Maldives and Seychelles islands in the Indian Ocean have taken the brunt of warming

seas, as 90% these corals have been killed over the past 2 years.

Some of the coral reefs, long described as undersea rainforests, home to

marine ecosystems that sustain thousands of species of fish and other marine life have

been alive for up to 2.5 million years. According to Rupert Ormond, a marine

biologist from Glasgow University, the world’s coral reefs will be dead within 50

years because of global warming, and there is nothing we can do to save them, a

scientist warned on September 5, 2001.62

Pacific Ocean temperatures in the last 10,000 years, researchers have found

that its middle depths have warmed 15 times faster in the last 60 years than they did

during apparent natural warming cycles in the previous years.

In a 2003 expedition to Indonesia, the researchers collected cores of sediment

from the seas where water from the Pacific flows into the Indian Ocean. By

measuring the levels of magnesium to calcium in the shells of Hyalinea Balthica, a

one-celled organism buried in those sediments, the researchers estimated the

temperature of the middle-depth waters where H. Balthica lived, from about 1,500 to

3,000 feet down. The temperature record where reflects middle-depth temperatures

throughout the western Pacific, the researchers say, since the eaters around Indonesia

originate from mid-depths of the North and South Pacific.63

3.2.5 Agriculture and Food Security

Of all human activities, agriculture is the most sensitive to both weather

fluctuations and climate change. Climate change affects agriculture and food

production in complex ways. It affects food production directly through changes in

agro-ecological conditions and indirectly by affecting growth and distribution of

incomes, and thus demand for agricultural produce. 61 Cornelia Dean, “Breathing New Life Into Cornelia, Deccan Herald, May 8, 2007, p. III 62 http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g-evd.htm accessed on 9-06-11. 63 “Oceans warm faster as they absorb emissions”, Deccan Herald, November 2, 2013, p. 11

64

Agriculture is not only a source of the commodity food but, equally

importantly, also a source of income. In a world where trade is possible at reasonably

low cost, the crucial issue for food security is not whether food is “available,” but

whether the monetary and non-monetary resources at the disposal of the population

are sufficient to allow everyone access to adequate quantities of food.

Changes in temperature and precipitation associated with continued emissions

of greenhouse gases will bring changes in land suitability and crop yields. In many

parts of the world, agriculture is already only marginally possible because of hot

climate and little rain. A temperature rise of only a few degrees could make living and

farming almost impossible.64

Global and regional weather conditions are also expected to become more

variable than at present, with increases in the frequency and severity of extreme

events such as cyclones, floods, hailstorms, and droughts. By bringing greater

fluctuations in crop yields and local food supplies and higher risks of landslides and

erosion damage, they can adversely affect the stability of food supplies and food

security.65

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)66 defines ‘food security’ as a

“situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic

access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food

preferences for an active and healthy life.” This definition comprises four key

dimensions of food supplies: availability, stability, access, and utilization.67

Climate change will affect all four dimensions of food security, namely food

availability (i.e., production and trade), access to food, stability of food supplies, and

food utilization. The importance of the various dimensions and the overall impact of

climate change on food security will differ across regions and over time and, most

importantly, will depend on the overall socio-economic status that a country has

64 Saurabh Malhotra, “Global Warming: Need for ‘Environmental Clauses’ Legal News and Views, 2000, Vol. 14, p. 21 65 Josef Schmidhuber and Francesco N. Tubiello, “Global Food Security under Climate Change”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 104, No. 50 (Dec. 11, 2007), pp. 19703-19708 66 The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is an agency of the United Nations that leads international efforts to defeat hunger. Serving both developed and developing countries, FAO acts as a neutral forum where all nations meet as equals to negotiate agreements and debate policy. FAO is also a source of knowledge and information, and helps developing countries and countries in transition modernize and improve agriculture, forestry and fisheries practices, ensuring good nutrition and food security for all. 67 Josef Schmidhuber and Francesco N. Tubiello, supra note 65, pp. 19703-19708

65

accomplished as the effects of climate change set in. Essentially all quantitative

assessments show that climate change will adversely affect food security

The main concern about climate change and food security is that changing

climatic conditions can initiate a vicious circle where infectious disease causes or

compounds hunger, which, in turn, makes the affected populations more susceptible

to infectious disease. The result can be a substantial decline in labor productivity and

an increase in poverty and even mortality. Essentially all manifestations of climate

change, be they drought, higher temperatures, or heavy rainfalls have an impact on the

disease pressure, and there is growing evidence that these changes affect food safety

and food security.

Developing countries are likely to have considerably more difficulty adapting

to climate change due to many factors, such as less developed technology and less

available capital. In addition, global climate change will clearly have an impact on

agriculture exports, imports and market prices.68

Climate change will increase the dependency of developing countries on

imports and accentuate existing focus of food insecurity on sub-Saharan Africa and to

a lesser extent on South Asia. Within the developing world, the adverse impacts of

climate change will fall disproportionately on the poor. Many quantitative

assessments also show that the socio-economic environment in which climate change

is likely to evolve is more important than the impacts that can be expected from the

biophysical changes of climate change.

In India

The impact of climate change on crop productivity and food security in India

will also be severe. Monika Koul Moza and A. K. Bhatnagar of the University of

Delhi have pointed out that changes in plant phonology or timing of lifecycle events

in the species such as leaf-formation, flowering, leaf fall, fruit development, seed

dispersal and germination may be one of the earliest observed responses to rapid

climate change. These changes are the result of the plants adapting to long-prevailing

climatic patterns, they say. An increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon

dioxide and higher temperatures could have potentially serious consequences for both

plant and animal species that depend on periodically available resources in the

68 http://yosemite, epa.gov/globalwarmingnst/contemt/impacts accessed on 29th September 2012.

66

ecosystems of the country.69

According to Sushil Kumar of the National Center for Plant Genome Research

(NCPGR) in New Delhi, given that 60 percent of land is already under cultivation, the

adverse effects of climate change are impossible to mitigate by adding area under

agriculture. The Himalayan mountain ranges seen from Shimla, the capital of

Himachal Pradesh are also affected, concurring with the latest international report

confirming the unequivocal nature of global warming, the state went without rain and

snow in January first time in almost four decades - or more precisely after 37 years,

which hit apples orchards the most. Apple, which is the main cash crop here,

contributes Rs 15 million of the economy and farmers worried of the dry weather.70

India’s largest producer of apple witnessed three consecutive bumper crops in the

years 2003, 2004 and in 2005 when the production reached an astonishing 5.4 lakh

tonne. In 2006, the production was reduced to almost half at 2.70 lakh tonne. The

production declined because of erratic rainfall and hailstorm, which damaged the crop

considerably. A lackluster winter was followed by an erratic spring, when unexpected

shower’s and hail storms wrecked havoc on our crop.71

Global warming is not just changing the climate drastically the world over, but

also actively threatening to lower the production of India’s (and Asia’s) key staple by

at least 7% (over pre-determined levels) by 2020 and to a maximum of 60% by the

end of century.

3.2.6 Health

Climate changes will affect the human health in many ways. Warmer

temperature increases the risk of mortality from heat stress. Diseases that thrive in

warmer climates, such as malaria, dengue, yellow fever, encephalitis and cholera are

likely to spread due to increase in mosquitoes and other disease-carrying organisms

and increased rate of transmission. Warmer and humid conditions may also enhance

the growth of bacteria and moulds and their toxic products, resulting in increased

amounts of contaminated and spoilt food, thus initiating food poisoning.72

Higher carbon dioxide concentration affects health by reducing blood PH

causing difficulty in breathing, rapid pulse rate, headache, hearing loss, sweating and 69 R. Ramachandran, “Himalayan Concerns”, Frontline, March 9, 2007, p. 15 70 “Dry spell hits Himachal after 37 years”, Deccan. Herald, February 5, 2007, p. 9 71 Dinker Vashist, “Scant Snowfall may upset Himachal’s apple cart” The Economic Times Finance, Feb. 2, 2007, p. 15 72 Dr S. C. Deb, supra note 49, p. 123

67

fatigue. Some studies have also shown possibilities of embryonic or foetal

abnormalities due to increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Increasing levels of carbon dioxide, apart from affecting climate, will have

serious toxic effects on humans and other mammals. Scientists divide the health

effects of climate change into two categories: the direct effects, that is, being killed by

heatstroke or drowned, and the indirect effects, are cholera, malaria or plague, which

would otherwise have been avoided. Extra heat means that tropical diseases can move

north and south to trouble previously immune populations in temperate regions.

Mostly, however, as with almost every other bad effect of climate change, it is the

already poor and overcrowded who will suffer most. Although the indirect effects will

ultimately be more serious, the so-called direct effects are surprisingly marked.73

The report from World Health Organization (WHO)74 estimated that in 2000

deaths around the world could be attributed to disease outbreaks and other conditions

sparked by climate change. But it has been enough to alter disease patterns across the

world. We’re all going to die, but climate change may increase the risk of death,

according to a new report by the World Health Organization. Many important

diseases that affect developing countries are sensitive to climate variations, according

to the report, and even a proportionally small change in the global incidence of some

diseases could result in significant public health impacts far into the future.75

Warmer temperatures will increase the chances of heat waves and can

exacerbate air quality problems such as smog, and lead to an increase in allergic

disorders. Diseases that thrive in warmer climates, such as dengue fever, malaria,

yellow fever, encephalitis, and cholera are likely to spread due to the expansion of the

range of disease-carrying organisms. By 2100, there could be an additional 50-80

million cases of malaria each year.76

Global climate change magnifies the effects of pollution and will worsen the

incidence of asthma, allergies, infections and cardiovascular diseases worldwide.

73 Paul Brown, Global Warming – Can Civilization Survive, 1st edition, Universal Press, Hyderabad, 1999, p. 125 74 WHO is the directing and coordinating authority for health within the United Nations system. It is responsible for providing leadership on global health matters, shaping the health research agenda, setting norms and standards, articulating evidence-based policy options, providing technical support to countries and monitoring and assessing health trends. 75 Jan Gilbreath, “Climate Change: Global Warming Kills”, Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 112, No. 3 (Mar., 2004), p. A160 76 Focus, “The Kyoto Protocol; A Framework for Action”, Global Issues Election Journal, May 1998, p. 7

68

Smoke and particulate matter from more wildfires, which are known to increase in

frequency as the climate warms, and the presence of air-borne particles from dust

storms caused by desertification.77

Researchers have found that poison ivy has grown more potent and lush

because of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In Africa, mosquitoes have

slowly inched up the slopes around Mount Kenya, bringing malaria to high villages

that had never been exposed before. According to Andrew Githeko, a vector Biologist

who heads the Climate and Human Health Research Unit at the Kenya Medical

Institute in Kisumu, “it’s going to get very warm”. In Githeko’s findings, published in

2006, marked the highest A. arabiensis breeding site ever recorded in Kenya and were

the first published report of malaria infection in the central highlands. He knew by

watching Mount Kenya’s gradually disappearing glaciers that his World was

warming, and the low land diseases would eventually work their way higher.

In 1996, health authorities reported a human case of tick-borne encephalitis in

the Czech village of Borova Lada, elevation 3,000 feet. Until then, the Ixodes rinicus

tick, which carries the disease, had never been seen above 2,600 feet. That ticks

migrated as high as 4,100 feet largely because of milder autumns over the last two

decades. “This shift of the ticks,” Daniel said, “is clearly connected with climate

changes.” “No one’s saying global warming is the whole picture here,” “but it is

playing a role. As climate changes, it’s projected to play an even greater role.”

High levels of airborne particulates cause respiratory diseases, as well as

inhibiting plant growth and requiring costly filtration equipment in certain high-tech

manufacturing industries. Long-term exposure to particulates appears to be associated

with a reduction of life expectancy of up to 2 years and higher prevalence of

bronchitis and reduced lung function in children.78

Automotive pollution constitutes almost half of the overall air pollution. The

range of adverse health effects from environmental problems is broad, including

gastrointestinal disease (from pathogens in drinking water), angina pain (from carbon

monoxide), learning disabilities (from exposure to lead), cancer (from chronic

exposure to many toxic substances), and many others. Eye infection such as

conjunctivitis takes place mainly due to direct exposure to the polluted air.

77 “Air quality worsens asthma”, Deccan Herald, March 16, 2012, p. 16 78 ‘Climate Change’ Trade in sustainable development, United Nations, New York, 2006, p. 14

69

Various constituents of the atmosphere have adverse health effects on the

humans as explained below-

i. Nitrogen oxides (NOX): can irritate mucous membranes; aggravate existing

respiratory illnesses, cause coughs, headaches and shortness of breath.

ii. Carbon monoxide (CO): is usually a localized pollutant, with high

concentrations possible at curbside on crowded streets during busy traffic

hours and rapid declines at other times and places. Carbon monoxide reacts

with hemoglobin in the blood, reducing the blood’s ability to carry oxygen. At

moderate levels of CO, healthy people can usually compensate for this oxygen

deficit. In individuals with pre-existing heart disease, however, moderate

levels of CO can cause problems associated with reduced oxygen supply to the

heart.

iii. Lead: Virtually all petrol contains lead additives as inexpensive anti-knock

agents. Lead is a widely distributed environmental pollutant that has been

linked to serious adverse health effects among infants, children, men and

women. Lead can affect mental development, blood chemistry, kidneys, and

nervous, reproductive and cardiovascular systems. Human exposure to lead

can be gauged most accurately by measuring the level of lead in body tissues

or fluids: blood, hair, bone, semen and urine. The wide range of effects,

including impacts on the cardiovascular, nervous, reproductive, and excretory

and digestive systems, is notable.

iv. Ozone: Ozone is a primary constituent of photochemical smog. At high

exposure concentrations and exercise levels, it is a respiratory irritant that

impairs lung functions and leads to lower respiratory symptoms such as cough

and chest discomfort. High levels of lead may increase the likelihood of

chronic lung injury, leading in some cases to fibrosis, chronic bronchitis and

heightened susceptibility to respiratory infections.79

The incidence of epidemics of disease is sometimes linked to climatic factors.

Any analysis must however take account of variations in food supplies and population

levels. Reduced food supplies at times of historically high population levels increases

vulnerability to diseases. Hence, any interpretation of the role of climate variability in

79 “Vehicular pollution: A Silent Killer”, Indian Auto, June 1999, p. 28

70

famine and social decline has to take account of demographic trends.80

Global warming is also responsible for the introduction of some new diseases

as bacteria are more effective and multiply much faster in warmer temperatures

compared to cold temperatures. The increase in temperature has lead to increase in the

microbes that cause diseases. As an effect of global warming various new diseases

have emerged lately. These diseases are occurring frequently due to the increase in

earth’s average temperature since the bacteria can survive better in elevated

temperatures and even multiply faster when the conditions are favorable. The global

warming is extending the distribution of mosquitoes due to the increase in humidity

levels and their frequent growth in warmer atmosphere. Various diseases due to ebola,

hanta and machupo virus are due to warmer climates.81

The threat to health is especially evident in poorest countries, particularly in

sub-Saharan Africa, as the recent Lancet and University College London report

shows. Their poverty and lack of resources, infrastructure, and often governance,

greatly increase their vulnerability to the effects of climate change.

The implications for the health of local populations are acute: on the spread

and changing patterns of disease, notably water borne diseases from inadequate and

unclean supplies; on maternal and child mortality as basic health services collapse;

and on malnutrition where food is scarce. These countries are struggling to meet the

Millennium Development Goals.82

Climate change is causing other kinds of extreme weather events too: storms,

floods, and rising sea levels affecting coastal populations and islands. Every such

event has adverse consequences for health. The poorer the country and its

infrastructure, the worse are the consequences and the poorer the chances of meeting

the Millennium Development Goals.

In India

In India also climate change can have a significant impact on health through

vector-borne diseases because of changes in the survival and reproduction rates of the

carriers, the intensity and temporal pattern of vector activity, and the lifecycle of

pathogens within the vectors.

80 “Global Warming: Causes, Effects and Mitigation”, Civil Services Chronicle, Environmental Issues Edition, 2012, p. 80 81 Ibid 82 M Jay and M G Marmot, Health and climate change, BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol. 339, No. 7722 (19th September 2009), pp. 645-646

71

In the context of malaria, the current climatic conditions and incidence rates

suggest that the most malaria prone areas are the central and eastern regions of India,

covering Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, West Bengal and Assam

but may shift from the central Indian region to the southwestern coastal States of

Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala. Also the high altitude northern States, including

Himachal Pradesh, and the northeastern States of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland,

Manipur and Mizoram may become malaria-prone.

The extent of vulnerability to malaria will depend on the prevailing socio-

economic conditions, the immune response to a new vector-borne disease, and the

existence of associated health care infrastructure.

Recent cases of Dengue and Chikungunya are directly connected to global

warming. Foods and famine in the unlikeliest of regions, caused due to global

warming, will lead to enormous economic loss to India because 60 per cent of the

Indian economy is dependent on agriculture.

Discussing the need to tackle to global warming, Dr Neeraj Patil, Councilor in

the London Borough of Lambeth, and an active member of Britain’s Labour Party,

said that in the context of Karnataka, Chikungunya and dengue fever hit us due to the

increase in the mosquito population. “This happened because of the increasing

temperature along the equator, which is affecting the countries around it,” he said.

Too much carbon dioxide in the air will also make the soil infertile, leading to famine;

he added and has taken up the challenge of creating awareness about the global

warming.

According to Stern Report (UK) if global warming is not checked by 2050,

200 million lives will be at risk, it will amount to 20 percent loss in the GDP, one in

twenty individuals will lose their home and it will also lead to more than three trillion

pounds worth of losses and has suggested the idea of imposing carbon tax on states

based on the amount of carbon dioxide emitted.83

3.2.7 Ozone Layer

An important relationship exists between the causes of the greenhouse effect

and the depletion of stratospheric ozone: the key greenhouse gases fluorocarbons,

nitrous oxide, and methane affect Stratospheric Ozone strongly. These gases have

atmospheric survival times, long enough to permit them to make the upward journey

83 Dr. Neeraj Patil, “Putting the heat on Global Warming Threat”, Deccan Herald, Feb 17, 2007

72

into the stratospheric ozone layer. In the harsh ultraviolet light there, the

fluorocarbons are decomposed, yielding chlorine atoms that destroy the ozone and

even Nitrous oxide decomposition yields nitric oxide that act similarly. Methane acts

to slow the attack on ozone, but it also decomposes to yield molecular fragments that

are involved in ozone destruction. Interestingly, climate models say that chlorine

attack on ozone is slowed; somewhat if in the future nitrous oxide and methane

continue to increase along with the fluorocarbons. The slower decrease of total ozone

will result in the redistribution of ozone towards lower altitudes.

CO2 is not involved chemically but once in the upper atmosphere it acts to

cool the air by radiating energy to space. This cooling should also act to slow the

chlorine attack on ozone a little. Ozone itself can affect temperatures at the surface of

the Earth. If, for example, the fluorocarbons, nitrous oxide, and methane all increase

in the future there should be more ozone present in the lower stratosphere and a

warming should occur.

Of all the gases destroying the ozone probably the fluorocarbons stand out in

several ways, because their concentrations in the atmosphere are the smallest, the

annual percentage rates of increases are the largest, and their sources are the simplest

to understand; the manmade. The depletion of ozone layer leads to the increased

levels of ultraviolet radiation, while the stratospheric ozone shield thins which may

result in significant rise in the occurrence of skin cancer and eye damage and may be

harmful to various biological species. Each 1% decline in ozone so expected may

cause a 4 to 6% increase in certain kinds of skin cancer. A particular concern is the

possible combined effects on unmanaged ecosystems of both increased ultraviolet

radiation and climate changes.84

3.2.8 Biological Diversity

Conservation of biodiversity has gained worldwide momentum. ‘Biodiversity’

is defined as the variability among living organisms and the ecological complexes of

which they are part, including diversity within and between species and ecosystems.

Biodiversity manifests at species, genetic and ecosystem levels. It has also been

defined as “the variety and variability among living organisms and the ecological

84 P. R. Trivedi, K Chery Sudharshan, supra note 52, pp. 50-51

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complexes in which they occur.”85

Ecosystems86 provide immense value for human use. The air we breathe, the

soil we farm, the plants we harvest, and the water we drink all depend on ecosystem

services. A significant portion of this value is generated by biological sources.

Climate is probably the most important determinant of vegetation patterns and

has a significant influence on forest distribution, species dominance, and plant

productivity and, in general, ecology of forests. Plant communities are associated with

certain climate regimes. Thus, it is logical to assume that a change in climate is likely

to alter forest vegetation. Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and

increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are likely to produce a strong direct

impact on ecosystem and forests.

Climate change is already having adverse effects on animal life, and those

effects are likely to prove devastating in the future. Nonetheless, the relevant harms to

animals have yet to become a serious part of the analysis of climate change policy.

Even if animals and species are valued solely by reference to human preferences,

consideration of animal welfare dramatically increases the argument for aggressive

responses to climate change.87

Previous natural climatic changes have caused large scale geographical shifts,

changes in species composition and extinction among biological communities.

Observations have led to believe, that, plants and animals are very sensitive to

climate. Their range move when the climate patterns change-species die out in areas

where they were once found and colonize new areas where the climate becomes

newly suitable. It is also known from the fossil records that some species have

become completely extinct because they were unable to find suitable habitat when

climate change made their old homes unlivable.

Forest ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change. According to the

IPCC reports, even with a modest global warming of 1-2°C, most forest ecosystems

will be impacted through changes in forest species composition, biodiversity and plant

85 Dr. Sukanta K Nanda, “Environmental Law”, Central Law Publications, I Edition, Allahabad , 2007, pp. 338-339 86 A system of living organisms interacting with each other and their physical environment. The boundaries of what could be called an ecosystem are somewhat arbitrary, depending on the focus of interest or study. Thus, the extent of an ecosystem may range from very small spatial scales to, ultimately, the entire Earth. 87 Wayne Hsiung and Cass R. Sunstein, Climate Change and Animals, University of Pennsylvania Law Review, Vol. 155, No. 6, Symposium: Responses to Global Warming: The Law, Economics, and Science of Climate Change (Jun., 2007), pp. 1695-1740

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productivity. Currently available scientific literature suggests that the unprecedented

warming observed in the recent decades has already made an impact on forest

ecosystems such as a pole-ward and an upward shift in ranges of plant, insect, bird

and fish species. Further, plant flowering, bird arrival and dates of breeding and

flowering are observed to be occurring earlier than before in the seasons.88

Globally, forests cover approximately 4 billion hectares of land, or 30% of the

Earth’s land surface. For forestry, the climate change-induced modifications of

frequency and intensity of forest wildfires, outbreaks of insects and pathogens, and

extreme events such as high winds, may be more important than the direct impact of

higher temperatures and elevated CO2.89

Climate change could alter species composition and dominance, resulting in

ecosystem level changes. Some species, which are currently classified as “critically

endangered”, could become extinct with a quarter of the species estimated to be at the

risk of extinction. The impacts of climate change will be additional to the current

threats to forest ecosystems and biodiversity, further increasing their vulnerability.

A recent research conducted by scientists from the University of East Anglia

has found is the way this rise can later the climate range of about 50,000 species of

plants and animals all over the world.90 According to IUCN91 Red List of Threatened

Species, there are at least 1,141 of the 5,487 mammals on Earth are known to be

threatened with extinction, and 836 are listed as Data Deficient. The main factor that

causes endangered species is loss of habitat. Whenever we cut down a tree or destroy

a forest to build a shopping mall we are destroying the homes of several species. It

also means that a food source for another animal may be destroyed as well. In some

areas certain species are hunted for sport faster than they can reproduce. 92

Ecosystems, with their specific flora and fauna, are especially vulnerable to

negative impact from global warming. Already, human interventions have imposed

such extensive disruptions and fragmentations on them that they have lost many of

88 P. R. Trivedi, K Chery Sudharshan, supra note 52, pp. 50-51 89Andrei P. Kirilenko and Roger A. Sedjo, Climate Change Impacts on Forestry, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 104, No. 50 (Dec. 11, 2007), pp. 19697-19702. 90Atula Gupta., “Species on the brink of fading away” Deccan Herald, May 21, 2013, p. 4 91The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) is an international organization dedicated to finding “pragmatic solutions to our most pressing environment and development challenges”. The organization publishes the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, founded in 1964, assesses the conservation status of species. The IUCN Red List is set upon precise criteria to evaluate the extinction risk of thousands of species and subspecies. 92 http://www.ask.com/question/how-many-endangered-species-are-there accessed on 24/07/2011.

75

their original adaptive mechanisms, such as long-term, large-scale migration of

animal and plant species, or local shifting of the species balance. Finally, we

emphasize that the assessments provided by climate-change science and impacts

assessment will continue to be accompanied by uncertainty and attendant caveats.

Such conditions will quite likely prevail even as the world’s nations make and

implement policies that will have a major influence on the CO2 emissions of the

twenty-first century and beyond.93

Many of the planet’s richest sources of biodiversity are found in some of the

world’s poorest nations. The loss of biodiversity has been called the most important

long-term global problem that we face today. It is estimated that over one-half of the

world’s species of plants, animals, and micro-organisms (estimated at 10 to 30

million) are found in the tropical rain forests. These forests will be heavily damaged

in the next fifteen years, and estimates of loss range from 100,000 to 350,000 in the

next forty years to as many as one billion within our lifetime.94

Today, about 50 percent of an increased yield on a farm crop arises from the

genetic resources of the plant. Maintaining biological genetic diversity is also

important for the medicinal bio-compounds that are available around the coral reefs,

many of which are known to be useful in combating cancer and other diseases.

Researchers found that if nothing is done to counter the effects of global

warming being felt at present, by the year 2080, half of the common plants on earth

and one third of animals will lose their climate range. This means the ecosystem or

the habitat of the animal or plant will be lost and this will automatically lead to

species becoming endangered and the biggest threat will be to plant life, reptiles and

amphibians. The regions of the world which will lose most of their plants and animals

are Sub-Saharan Africa, Central America Amazonia and Australia. On the other hand,

North Africa, Central Asia and South-eastern Europe will be the regions that will face

a catastrophic loss of only plant life.

The greatest impact will surely be on humans. It has been predicted that

compared to preindustrial era, global temperatures could rise by four degrees Celsius

by 2100. The mitigation would first slow and then stop global temperatures from

rising by more than two degrees Celsius which will give at least 60 percent of these

93 http://ehostvgw6.epnet.com/fulltext.asp?reltSetId=R00000008&hit accessed on 24/07/2011. 94 Alvaro Soto, supra note 56, p. 693

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species time to adapt to changes and up their survival skills, with 40 years of added

life. Finally, as in previous periods of catastrophic ecosystem disruption, new species

will eventually move in to replace the old, and some animals are even predicted to

benefit from climate change. It is indisputable; however, that many animals will not

be so lucky. Like human beings, animals will be affected by climate change. But the

harms to animals are already apparent, scientifically clear and of first-order

significance.

Climate change is every nation’s problem today, and every individual’s. To

cool the anger of this global monster created by us, it is pertinent that efforts too are

put in by one and all. Only then can the vast majority of life forms on earth be saved.

In India

India covers about 2.5% of the world’s land area and accounts for 7.8% of the

recorded species of the world including 45,500 plants and 91,200 animals in only

70% of the area surveyed. India is one of the 17 mega diverse countries and houses

world’s two diversity hotspots, namely eastern Himalaya and Western Ghats. Major

threat to such Biodiversity rich regions is due to disproportionate destruction of forest

and even climate change negatively affects forests including biodiversity wiping out

the species.95

Thus, the rich biodiversity of India is under severe threat owing to habitat

destruction, degradation, fragmentation over-exploitation of resources and global

warming. Increasing the speed of economic growth without exhausting the resources

and at the same time fulfilling the basic needs of a large growing population is one of

the great challenges facing India.96

As far as India is concerned, the effects of global warming are already

apparent. In the east, Olive ridley turtles have a tougher task finding idle nesting sites

for their eggs as beaches begin to shrink with rising sea level. In the high-altitude

regions of the Himalayas, flowers that bloom in spring are budding in winter,

confusing the bees and the insects that depend on the nectar and the shelter of these

plants. In the Western Ghats, tree frogs have begun to predict monsoons at unusual

times of the year.

A related study of the impact of climate change on forest types by N. H.

95 Mehdi, “Climate Change and Biodiversity: India’s Perspective and Legal Framework”, JILI, Vol. 52:3 & 4, p. 352 96 M S Rathore, Environment and development: Areas of Conflict and Convergence, Environment and development, Jaipur and New Delhi: M S Rathore, Rawat Publications, 1996, p. 20

77

Ravindranath of the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and others says that by the mid-

2080s around 70 percent of the forest grids in India are likely to experience a shift in

forest type. According to it, a shift towards wetter forest types in the northeastern

region and drier forest types in the northwestern region is likely, thus affecting the

biodiversity of the country. So, the increase in atmospheric CO2 and warming could

result in a 70 to 100 percent increase in the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) of

forests.97

Forest plays crucial economic, social and cultural role in India. Many river

systems originate in forests and anchor rich biodiversity. Forests provide timber,

industrial wood, and fuel wood and non-timber products to the local communities and

the national economy. Currently, the forest area, vegetation and biodiversity are being

subjected to degradation and loss due to human and livestock pressures.

Forest ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change. According to the

IPCC reports, even with a modest global warming of 1-2°C, most forest ecosystems

will be impacted through changes in forest species composition, biodiversity and plant

productivity. In fact currently available scientific literature suggests that the

unprecedented warming observed in the recent decades has already made an impact

on forest ecosystems such as a pole-ward and an upward shift in ranges of plant,

insect, bird and fish species. Further, plant flowering, bird arrival and dates of

breeding and flowering are observed to be occurring earlier than before in the seasons.

“Temperature in the Himalayas has increased by 1.5 degrees between 1982

and 2006, which translates into 0.06 degree Celsius rise every year. Because of the

rise in temperature, flowering and bird migration pattern in the Himalayas too are

changing” said Robert Johan, an assistant professor at Indian Institutes of Science

Education and Research (IISER).

Trees and plants in Himalayas are losing their foliage cover due to global

warming, which has aggravated since mid-1990s, conservationists have warned. The

effect of “browning – loss of canopy cover (opposite to greening) is visible up to 4000

meters elevation in the Himalayas where the tree line ends. The browning would

impact on lower level trees, Alpine scrubs, such as juniper and rhododendron and

even flowering plants at upper reaches. However, the higher one goes up, browning of

97 N.H. Ravindranath, “Storm warming”, Frontline, March 9, 2007, p. 15

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loss foliage becomes less evident. Signatures of severe warming leading to moisture

stress are visible in the Himalayas which has negative impact on the vegetation.98

Whatever the role of the climate in mass extinctions, the important point to

note is how throughout geological time the diversity of life has increased. While

extinctions and other environmental changes have resulted in major setbacks, the

upward trend is clear. This means that, in adapting to these changes, many life forces

evolved in conditions, which were very different to those in which their descendants

are now living.99 Natural systems (coral reefs, mangroves, boreal and tropical forests,

and prairie wetlands to name a few) are vulnerable to climate changes due to their

inability to adapt to rapid environmental changes. Some of the more vulnerable

species risk extinction, and the extent of damage or loss of biodiversity is sure to

increase with the magnitude and rate of climate change.100 Extinction is a natural

process. Species have disappeared and new ones have evolved to take their place over

the long geological history of the earth. The World Conservation Monitoring Centre

has recorded that 533 animal species (mostly vertebrates) and 384 plant species

(mostly flowering plants) have become extinct since the year 1600. More species have

gone extinct from the islands than from mainland or the oceans.101

Biodiversity maintains the ecological balance and continues the evolutionary

process. The indirect ecosystem services provided through biodiversity are

photosynthesis102, pollination103, transpiration104, chemical cycling, nutrient cycling,

soil maintenance, climate regulation, air, water system management, and waste

treatment.105 The depletion of biodiversity also leads to extinguishment of certain

species, so it has become necessary to take steps to conserve and protect it.

98

“Trees in Himalaya losing foliage cover”, say experts, Deccan Herald, 18th October 2013, p. 18 99 William James Burroughs, supra note 51, p.123 100Denis G. Arnold and Keith Bustos, supra note 2, pp. 103-130 101“Ecological Systems: Threats and Measures”, Civil Services Chronicle, IAS 2012, Edn-3, p. 26. 102 The process by which plants take carbon dioxide from the air (or bicarbonate in water) to build carbohydrates, releasing oxygen in the process. There are several pathways of photosynthesis with different responses to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. 103 The transfer of pollen from the anthers of a flower to the stigma of the same flower or of another flower. Pollination is a prerequisite for fertilization: the fusion of nuclei from the pollen grain with nuclei in the ovule. Fertilization allows the flower to develop seeds. 104 Transpiration is the evaporation of water into the atmosphere from the leaves and stems of plants. Plants absorb soil water through their roots and this water can originate from deep in the soil. Plants pump the water up from the soil to deliver nutrients to their leaves. This pumping is driven by the evaporation of water through small pores called “stomata’s”, which are found on the undersides of leaves. Transpiration accounts for approximately 10% of all evaporating water. 105 N Satish Gowda, “Biodiversity: Measures to Conservation and its Effectiveness”, KLJ, 2010(1), p.70

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3.2.9 Precipitation and Rain-fall

A significant buildup in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would alter

worldwide precipitation patterns according to a widely discussed technological

approach to reduce future global warming which would also interfere with rainfall and

snowfall. The international study, led by scientists at the National Centre for

Atmosphere Research (NCAR), finds that global warming caused by a massive

increase in greenhouse gases would spur a nearly seven percent average increase in

precipitation compared to pre-industrial conditions.106

Precipitation107 is the major driving force of the hydrological system. Changes

in the amount, intensity, duration and timing during the year will all affect river flows

and groundwater recharge, but to what degree will depend on the amount of change

and the type of catchment. An increase in winter temperature would reduce the

frequency of snowfall and shorten the season over which precipitation falls as snow.

Potential evapotranspiration108 is the evaporation and transpiration that would

occur from an extensive short grass crop with an unlimited supply of water. Global

warming will alter potential evaporation. The most immediate effect will be an

increase in the air’s ability to absorb water as temperature rises. It is estimated that

potential evapotranspiration would increase by 4% for every degree Celsius increase

in temperature. However, the effects of increased temperature are complicated by

changes in net radiation, humidity and wind speed. Increased cloudiness would be

expected to reduce net radiation and increase absolute humidity, so reducing

evaporative demand, but with higher temperatures an increase in absolute humidity

might still result in a reduction in relative humidity, and hence an increase in

evaporative demand. The precise effects of global warming on potential evaporation

will depend on the current climatic characteristics of a site, as well as details of the

meteorological changes.

Vegetation characteristics can also be expected to change as a result of global

warming, leading to a change in the rate of potential evapotranspiration. Alterations in

106 “Climate adjustments may lower rainfall,” Deccan Herald, Nov. 2, 2013, p. 6 107 The definition of precipitation is any form of water - liquid or solid - falling from the sky. It includes rain, sleet, snow, hail and drizzle plus a few less common occurrences such as ice pellets, diamond dust and freezing rain. 108 Evapotranspiration (ET) is the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration from the Earth's land and Ocean surface to the atmosphere. Evaporation accounts for the movement of water to the air from sources such as the soil, canopy interception, and water bodies. Transpiration accounts for the movement of water within a plant and the subsequent loss of water as vapor through stomata in its leaves. Evapotranspiration is an important part of the water cycle.

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climatic regimes will affect the timing and amount of plant growth and the mix of

vegetation within catchments, and plant characteristics may also change as a result of

increasing levels of atmospheric CO2.

Changes in temperature and precipitation will affect plant growth through the

year, and therefore the seasonal variation in plant physiological properties. These

changes may also lead to changes in the type of vegetation growing at a point or in

catchments. There are two main types of changes in plant physiology. Plant

physiological properties are also affected by atmospheric CO2 depending on plant

type.

In general, when plants are exposed to higher CO2 concentrations, their

stomata close and transpiration is reduced. Plant response to elevated CO2 may be

affected by climate or the availability of nutrients, and plants may adapt to altered

CO2 concentrations.109

Evaporation is the transformation of water from liquid to vapor, and

transpiration is the part of total evaporation that enters the atmosphere through plants

evaporation from a vegetated surface is often termed evapotranspiraton. Potential

evaporation is the evaporation that would occur from an extensive surface

(conventionally defined to be grass-covered), with no shortage of available water.

Actual evaporation falls below the potential rate when there is insufficient water.

Potential evaporation is a function of the energy available for evaporation, the rate at

which water vapor can be removed from the evaporating surface, and plant

physiological characteristics. All these factors may be affected by climate change.

Warming will change rainfall patterns, partly because warmer air holds more

moisture, and also because the uneven distribution of warming around the world will

lead to shifts in large-scale weather regimes. Most climate models predict increases in

rainfall at high latitudes, while changes in circulation patterns are expected to cause a

drying of the subtropics, with northern Africa and the Mediterranean experiencing

significant reductions in rainfall. There is more uncertainty about changes in rainfall

in the tropics, mainly because of complicated interactions between climate change and

natural cycles like the El Niño110, which dominate climate in the tropics. For example,

109 Nigel Arnell, “Global Warming River flows and Water resources”, John Wiley & Sons, West Sussex, England, 1996, pp. 20 110 El Nino is a band of anomalously warm ocean water temperatures that periodically develops off the western coast of South America and can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean. There is a phase of ‘El Nino–Southern Oscillation, (ENSO), which refers to variations in the temperature of the

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an El Niño event with strong warming in the central Pacific can cause the Indian

monsoon to switch into a “dry mode”, characterized by significant reductions in

rainfall leading to severe droughts. These delicate interactions could cause abrupt

shifts in rainfall patterns. This is an area that urgently needs more research because of

the potential effect on billions of people, especially in South and East Asia.111

In India

Extreme precipitation is found to increase substantially over the western coast

and west central India. Spatial rainfall patterns show a maximum increase over west

central India and the northeastern region. Overall, the summer monsoon rainfall

shows a 20% increase over the present, and the increase is seen in all the States except

Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu, which show a slight decrease.

A fall in winter precipitation implies greater water stress during a lean summer

monsoon season. Intense rain occurring during the summer monsoon months will

mean that much of the monsoon rain would be lost as direct run-off, leading to lower

groundwater recharging potential. Groundwater is the chief source of water to meet

the domestic needs of over 80 percent of the rural and 50 percent of the urban

populations and also meets the needs of about 50 per cent of irrigated agriculture.

Geoengineering112 approach to reduce future warming would capture carbon

dioxide before it enters the atmosphere. However, trying to resolve the problem

through geoengineering could result in monsoons rains in North America, East Asia

and other regions dropping by 5-7 percent compared to preindustrial conditions.

Globally, average precipitation could decrease by about 4.5%, according to a study.

Attempts to geoengineer the climate in order to lower greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere could reduce vital rains in several parts of the world, including East

surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (El Nino and La Nina) and in air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. The two variations are coupled: the warm oceanic phase, El Nino, accompanies high air surface pressure in the western Pacific, while the cold phase, La Nina, accompanies low air surface pressure in the western Pacific. Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

The extremes of this climate pattern’s oscillations cause extreme weather (such as floods and droughts) in many regions of the world. Developing countries dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected. 111 Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, Part I: Climate Change – Our Approach, p. 13 112 Geoengineering, geological engineering, engineering geology or geotechnical engineering deals with the discovery, development, and production and use of subsurface earth resources, as well as the design and construction of earth works. Geoengineering is the application of geosciences, where mechanics, mathematics, physics, chemistry, and geology are used to understand and shape our interaction with the earth.

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Asia.113 “Geoengineering the planet doesn’t cure the problems”, said NCAR scientist

Simone Tilmes. “Even if one of these techniques could keep global temperatures

approximately balanced, precipitation would not return to preindustrial conditions.

Others would attempt to essentially shade the atmosphere by injecting sulfate particles

into the atmosphere or launching mirrors into orbit with the goal of reducing global

surface temperatures.114

3.2.10 Water Resources

Due to the ‘greenhouse effect’, the global water cycle will grow hyperactive.

At present 500,000 cubic kilometer of water go around this cycle each day: a

conservative estimate is 5% more or 25000 extra cubic kilometers of water will

disturb the delicate balance of hydrologic cycle.115

The most fundamental effects of climate change are intensification and

disruption of the water cycle. Intensification of the water cycle will produce more

severe droughts in some places and floods in others.

Climate change has the potential to alter the patterns of stress and will thus

impact water management. Some parts of the world will receive more river runoff

(possibly associated with increased flooding), while other parts will experience a

decrease in water availability. Water resources would become even more vulnerable

than they are now. In areas where climate change causes reduced precipitation,

freshwater storage, primarily in the form of groundwater, will steadily shrink.

Increased temperature will result in a larger water demand by crops and vegetation

(higher evapotranspiration rates). Areas with increased or more intense precipitation

events would experience floods and higher lake and river levels. An increase in

extreme events such as droughts and floods would undermine the reliability of many

critical sources. Worsening droughts combined with the over exploitation of water

resources would cause salt to leach from the soil, thus raising the salinity of the soil.

In coastal zones, a lowered water table would also draw salt water from the sea into

the fresh groundwater. Leaching116 and intrusions of salt water into freshwater stores

113 “Climate adjustments may lower rainfall,” Deccan Herald, Nov. 2, 2013, p. 6 114 Ibid 115 Saurabh Malhotra, supra note 64, p.21-22 116 In agriculture, leaching refers to the loss of water-soluble plant nutrients from the soil, due to rain and irrigation. Leaching is an environmental concern when it contributes to groundwater contamination. As water from rain, flooding, or other sources seeps into the ground, it can dissolve chemicals and carry them into the underground water supply. Of particular concern are hazardous

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would make groundwater unfit for household and agricultural use. Changing

precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns would damage croplands, forests,

marshes, and other ecosystems.

As the demands of growing populations approach the limits of renewable

resources, water could provide the flashpoint for conflict in regions with longstanding

ethnic and political rivalries. Indeed, some analysts have suggested that within a

decade water could overshadow oil as a scarce commodity at the center of conflict

and peacemaking.117

Water is a great resource that has often been a source of conflict - in the

Middle East (the Euphrates and the Jordan), in Asia (the Mekong and the Ganges), in

Africa (the Nile), and in North and South America (the Rio Grande and Rio de la

Plata). Water is already a serious constraint on development in 80 countries, with 40

percent of the world’s population. Water use doubled globally in the forty years

between 1940 and 1980 and, with increasing population and irrigation, it will

drastically increase again by the 21st century, bringing growing competition and

conflict between nation-states. This is already happening in the Ganges basin, for

example, between India and Bangladesh. And a recent report by the Food and

Agriculture Organization foresees increasing conflict between Egypt and Sudan over

the waters of the Nile. Indeed, some feel that the Nile is a war waiting to start. On the

one hand, Egypt’s exploding population requires vastly more land and water if it is to

house and feed itself, and that can only be found in the valley of the Nile. But the

growing population of Sudan is also dependent on the Nile. On the other hand, Egypt

is one of the country’s most seriously threatened by global warming and sea-level

rise. In fact, up to one-fifth of Egypt’s most densely populated and productive areas

could be flooded within the next half-century. This will displace tens of millions, but

where will they go? Egypt’s neighbors around the Mediterranean will be experiencing

the same problems.118

The impact of a change in greenhouse gas concentrations on the natural

hydrological system, affects the relationships between all elements of the system. The

increase in greenhouse gas concentrations results in an increase in radiation at the

waste dumps and landfills, and, in agriculture, excess fertilizer, improperly stored animal manure, and biocides (e.g. pesticides, fungicides, insecticides and herbicides). 117 Willem van Deursen, “Humans, ‘Water and Climate Change”, Change 50, Feb- Mar. 2000, p. 25 118 Jim MacNeill, “The Greening of International Relations”, International Journal, Vol. 45, No. 1, The Greening of World Politics (Winter,1989/1990), pp. 1-35

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surface, increasing temperature. Higher surface temperature produces a change in

rainfall and evaporation, which together change river flows and groundwater

recharge. Changes in temperature, radiation, and rainfall soil moisture and CO2;

concentrations all affect catchment ecosystems and land use, which then affect the

catchments water balance. Stream water quality is affected by temperature catchments

land use, rainfall, and the volume of river flow and saline intrusion.119

In India

One of the direct effects of global warming is the altering of the heat budget

and its regional variations in the atmosphere, the primary driver of weather systems

around the world. The potential impact of warming on the monsoon in India is of

serious concern, particularly with respect to agriculture, much of which is rain fed.

Indeed, nearly 80 per cent of the country’s water resources go to meet agricultural

needs.120

The accelerated rate of glacial melt in some of the important glaciers in the

Himalayan region is expected to have serious consequences for the freshwater

ecosystems of the Ganga basin with long-term impacts for biodiversity, people and

livelihoods as well as regional food security. This will not only mean repercussions on

the region’s agricultural productivity and industrial activity but also on the Terai

ecosystems and species like the Ganga River Dolphin.121

3.2.11 Migration and Refugees

The consequences of climate change on migration present humanity with an

unprecedented challenge. The numbers of storms, droughts and floods have increased

threefold over the last 30 years with devastating effects on vulnerable communities,

particularly in the developing world. In 2008, 20 million persons have been displaced

by extreme weather events, compared to 4.6 million internally displaced by conflict

and violence over the same period. How many people will be affected by climate

change by 2050? Forecasts vary from 25 million to 1 billion people with a figure of

200 million being the most widely cited estimate.122

Extreme environmental events such as cyclones, hurricanes, tsunamis and

tornadoes tend to capture the media headlines, but it is gradual changes in the 119 Saurabh Malhotra, supra note 64, p. 21-22 120 R. Ramchandran, supra note 69, p. 12 121 Prakash Rao, supra note 23, p. 20 122 Frank Laczko and Christine Aghazarm, “Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the evidence”, International Organization for Migration, Geneva, Switzerland, 2009, p. 5

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environment that are likely to have a much greater impact on the movement

people in the future. For example, over the last 30 years, twice as many people have

been affected by droughts as by storms.

A billion people - one in seven people on Earth today- could be forced to

leave their homes over the next 50 years as the effect of climate change worsen an

already serious migration crisis, a new report from Christian Aid predicts.123

The report, which is based on latest report UN population and climate change

figures, say conflict, large-scale development projects and wide-spread environmental

deterioration will combine to make life unsupportable for hundreds of millions of

people, most on a Sahara belt, South Asia and the Middle East. According to the

development charity, the world faces its largest movement of people forced from their

homes.

“About 155 million people are known to be displaced now by conflict, natural

disaster and development projects. This figure could be augmented by as many as 850

million, as more people are expected to be affected by water shortages, sea level

crises, deteriorating pastureland, conflicts and famine” the report says. The latest

IPCC report said that by 2080, 1.1-3.2 billion people would be experiencing water

scarcity, 200-600 million hunger and 2.7 million a year coastal flooding.

Global warming isn’t just a matter of melting icebergs and polar bears chasing

them. With Lake Chad drying up, the glaciers of Mt Kilimanjaro are disappearing,

increasing extreme weather patterns, Africa so far the lowest emitter of greenhouse

gases in the world, is projected to be the hardest hit.124

The islands are losing landmass and creating thousands of environmental

refugees for which all measures must be taken by the state to rehabilitate the these

environmental refugees under a disaster management plan.125

In India too refugees from Lohachara, Ghoramara and Sunderbans are on the

rise due to the impact of Global Warming i.e. sea level rise turning these areas into

islands and where some small islands are predicated to sink in this rising sea level.

123 John Vidal, “Billion Homeless by 2050”, Deccan Herald, May 15, 2007. p. 15 124 Ibid. 125 Down to Earth, Jan 15, 2007, pp. 30-31

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3.2.12 Financial Services Sector

The financial services sector, especially the reinsurance industry, has taken

particular note of the potential losses from climate change. Losses from weather-

related disasters in the last decade were eight times higher than in the 1960s.

Insurance as a means of sharing risks is well suited to situations where the

likely hood of a damaging event for any individual party is relatively small but the

potential damages are large. Since the relationship between weather-related events

and climate change is not known. Insurance to cover the risks of climate change per

se is probably not feasible or necessary. But insurance to cover the damages

associated with weather-related events is desirable. To the extent that the frequency or

severity of weather events turns out to be affected by climate change, such insurance

would be a form of climate change insurance. But since a meaningful premium for

private insurance against climate change losses cannot be calculated insurers have

responded to weather disasters by withdrawing or restricting coverage in regions that

are particularly prone to such events. If climate change does contribute to those events

the affected regions bear the costs of actions by the rest of the world.126

Moreover, although there is no clear evidence that hurricane frequency has

changed over the past few decades (or will change in the next few decades), there is

overwhelming evidence that damage from such storms has increased astronomically.

Attribution of this trend to changes in socioeconomic factors (e.g., economic growth,

population growth, and other demographic changes, as well as increased penetration

of insurance coverage) or an increase in the occurrence or intensity of extreme

weather events, as a result of global climate change, is uncertain and controversial.127

As for the impact on the global financial sector, the extreme weather events

anticipated to accompany climate change would increase actuarial uncertainty in risk

assessment, which would result in increased insurance premiums or could possibly

lead to the withdrawal of coverage in certain situations altogether. In either case, the

need for government-funded compensation following natural disasters is sure to

increase.128

126 Climate Change 1995 - Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, p. 71 127 http://ehostvgw6.epnet.com/fulltext.asp?reltSetId=R00000008&hit accessed on 24/07/2011 128 Denis G. Arnold and Keith Bustos, supra note 2, pp. 103-130

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3.2.13 Developing Countries

The effects of global warming and a changing climate will not be felt equally

across our planet. Regional climate changes will likely be very different from changes

in the global average. Differences from region to region could be in both the

magnitude and the rate of climate change. Furthermore, not all things, whether they

are natural ecosystems or human settlements, are equally sensitive to changes in the

climate. And finally, nations (and indeed regions within nations) vary in their ability

to cope and adapt to global warming and a changing climate.

In all the political debate and hard negotiations on climate change, the poor are

most often forgotten. The focus is only on how any effort to reduce greenhouse gas

emissions may impact economic growth. Recent scientific evidence suggests that

India will be one of the countries that will suffer most from climate change. Food pro-

duction and food security, fresh water supply, forest biodiversity, coastal settlements,

fishing and more will be adversely affected. Unfortunately, the burden of climate

change will fall disproportionately on poor communities, namely, dry-land farmers,

forest dwellers and fishermen. According to a recent report of the Lehman Brothers,

India will be the biggest loser; it projects an estimated gross domestic product loss of

5 percent owing to climate change. This is twice that of the cost to the EU and over

one percentage point higher than the cost to America.

The biggest vulnerability is that the weather gravely affects developing

countries’ main economic activities - such as farming and tourism. Global warming

dries out farmland. Since two-thirds of Africa is desert or arid, the continent is heavily

exposed. One study predicts that by 2080 as much as a fifth of Africa’s farmland will

be severely stressed. And that is only one part of the problem.129

In sub-Saharan Africa, increasing droughts and excessive heat are likely to

mean that within about 20 years the staple crop maize will no longer thrive in about

40% of current farmland. In other parts of the region rising temperatures will kill or

degrade swaths of the savanna used to graze livestock, according to the report, Turn

down the heat: climate extremes, regional impacts and the case for resilience. In

south-east Asia, events such as the devastating floods in Pakistan in 2010, which

affected 20 million people, could become commonplace, while changes to the

129 http://www.economist.com/node/14447171 accessed on 7th April 2012

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monsoon could bring severe hardship to Indian farmers.130

In India

Developing countries such as India are more vulnerable to climate change than

industrialized countries and hence have a greater stake in the success of global climate

negotiations and strategies for greenhouse gas stabilization. Any delay in action to

address climate change will make future actions more expensive and even more

difficult to agree upon and implement. If climate negotiations fail, the poorest in India

will be the first to suffer. The impact would be severe because of their low adaptive

capacity. Eventually, the whole population would be affected in one-way or the other.

The impact of climate change on the poorest people, which may exceed 500

million in India, is rarely the central issue in all the debates on climate change. The

central issue for policymakers seems to be the likely impact of any climate mitigation

measures on economic growth. However, economic growth alone will not insulate the

poor against the adverse impact of climate change. High growth rates in the past

decade have not made any significant impact on the quality of life of the poor. The

poor in India are already exposed to severe water scarcity, water pollution, fodder and

fuel wood scarcity, land degradation, desertification, droughts and floods. Unable to

cope with the current environmental stresses such as drought and water stress, the

poor will be vulnerable to climate change and will find it difficult to adapt.

In this context, what Mahatma Gandhi said should be the guideing policy:

“The acid test of right action is to bring into your imagination the poorest man you

have ever seen and decide if your policy is going to benefit him.”131

India, like many other developing countries, is insisting on large-scale transfer

of funds to developing countries in order to enable them to adapt to climate change.

The only permanent insurance against the adverse impacts of climate change is

mitigation aimed at stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere, at the earliest.

India needs to chart multiple strategies to cope with the impending threats of

climate change, which are additional to the existing environmental stresses. This

should include i) research for an improved understanding of climate change-related

issues; ii) the adoption of sustainable development pathways; iii) increasing the

130 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jun/19/climate-change-developing-countries-world-bank accessed on 5th April 2012 131 Denis G. Arnold and Keith Bustos, supra note 2, pp. 103-130

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adaptive capacity of the poor; and iv) working towards a global arrangement to reduce

emissions of greenhouse gases at the earliest.132

Some nations are likely to experience more adverse effects than other nations

may benefit more than others. Poor nations are generally more vulnerable to the

consequence of global warming. These nations tend to be more dependent on climate-

sensitive sector, such as subsistence agriculture, and lack of resources to buffer

themselves against the changes that global warming may bring.

Unfortunately, the first and the most severe victims of the climate change

problem will not be the rich who caused it but the poor who did not cause it. Climatic

variability and climatic impact have always happened. We have had floods, we have

had droughts and we have had cyclones. But, unfortunately, in future these will

become more severe and therefore we need to be better prepared133 as the indications

of climate change have become much stronger. Climate change is one of the single

biggest challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral

responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest.

3.2.14 Climatic disasters and extreme events

Disasters have been mankind’s constant though inconvenient companion since

time immemorial. Natural disasters continue to strike unabated and without notice and

are perceived to be on the increase in their magnitude, complexity, frequency and

economic impact globally. These disasters pose a threat to people, structures,

economic assets and assume disasters proportions when they occur in areas of dense

human habitations. There is very close relationship of environment and natural

disasters. Most of the natural calamities are because of the mismanagement of our

natural resources and environment. With the new threat of climate change, the

frequency and impact of natural disaster will increase substantially.

Even small changes in average precipitation can have a very large effect on

the extremes of rainfall events that cause either flooding or draught, already the most

frequent and deadly forms of natural disasters. Globally the climate change is likely to

widen the area affected by draught, with particularly severe impacts in areas that are

already water-stressed. These trends will affect on lives and on health. Draughts

132 N. H. Ravindranath, supra note 97, p. 24 133 R. Ramachandran, supra note 69, p. 32

90

increase the risk of diseases spread by contaminated food and water.134

Extreme winds, particularly in the tropical regions, bring death and

destruction. There is clear evidence for a marked increase in the numbers of the most

extreme cyclones in recent decades, and this trend is likely to continue. Studies

indicate that a doubling of the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, expected

within about 80 years, will result in an increase of only about 6% in average cyclone

wind speed but of 300% in the frequency of the largest (category 5) storms.

South East Asia Region has witnessed the effect of climate change as it is

already disaster prone. The World Disasters Report 2006: reported that of people

killed in natural disasters during 1996-2005, 57% are residents in South East Asia

countries. It is observed highest number of natural disasters accounted for 44% of all

global disasters. Indonesia alone during a period of three months in 2008 faced three

severe earthquakes, three flood events, four landslides, and two tornadoes.135

Hurricanes and other storms are likely to become more intense in a warmer,

more energized world, as the water cycle intensifies, but changes to their location and

overall numbers remain less certain. There is growing evidence the expected increases

in hurricane severity are already occurring, above and beyond any natural decadal

cycles. Recent work suggests that the frequency of very intense hurricanes and

typhoons (Category 4 and 5) in the Atlantic Basin has doubled since the 1970s as a

result of rising sea-surface temperatures.136

In India

The Indian subcontinent is highly vulnerable to cyclones, earthquakes, and

floods. Avalanches, forest fire and landslides occur frequently in the Himalayan

region of northern India. Among the 35 total states/Union Territories in the country 25

are disaster prone. On an average, about 50 million people in the country are affected

by one or the other disaster every year, besides loss of property worth several million.

In India, in 2005, there was an unusual flood which destroys Train Bridge and

kills over 120 people with many injured; in Maldives. In Nepal, there was excess

water from melting glaciers which can cause glacial lake outburst floods. This

phenomenon increasingly observed in all the Himalayas. Population, property and 134 Dr. Deoki Nandan, Vinod Joon, Vaishali Jaiswal, “Global Warming and the Challenges posed by Climate Change”, World Focus, Sept. 2009, pp. 363-364 135 Dr. Khanchit Limpakarnjanarat, Dr. Saiyed Habibullah and Alexander von Hildebrand, “Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: A Dimension of Global Health Security”, International Journal of Environmental Consumerism (IJEC), Vol. 4, Jan- Dec. 2008, p. 49 136 Stern Reiview: The Economics of Climate Change, Part I: Climate Change – Our Approach, p. 15

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hydropower stations downstream are at risk from flash floods. In 2002 in Andhra

Pradesh, heat wave with temperatures of up to 54o C took almost 1500 lives.137

An important effect of global warming on meteorological conditions is an in-

crease in Sea Surface Temperature (SST)138 in the oceans around the subcontinent.

The resulting greater convective activity will lead to an increase in the intensity or

wind speed of cyclones that form in them, particularly the Bay of Bengal where over

80 percent of the cyclones originate

The risk of cyclone-related disaster is thus far greater in a warmer

subcontinent. The vulnerability of the population on the 7,000-km Indian coastline is

huge considering the fact that a quarter of India’s population lives within 50 km of the

coastline and this include some major cities as well. The mean sea level rise itself, in

the absence of protection, can inundate a large swath of predominantly agricultural

land on the coast, and the surviving coastline faces the threat of extreme storm surges.

India, in fact, is one of the 27 countries the UNEP has identified as most vulnerable to

sea level rise.139 The natural disasters directly impact economies, agriculture, food

security, water, sanitation, the environment and health every year.140

Thus the human induced climate change will continue in the decades and

centuries to come and actions to mitigate climate change may slow the rate of climate

change, but will almost certainly not stop it. To prepare our societies better for the

changes in climate ahead, and to identify possible critical thresholds in the climate

system, considerable efforts have been made to project the likely regional and global

climate consequences of the range of plausible socio-economic development

pathways.141 Therefore, the world community must come up with an effective

response in curbing global warming by evolving norms and taking strategic steps to

mitigate climate change and achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas atmospheric

concentrations through good laws and implementing machinery.

137 Ibid, p. 49 138 The sea surface temperature is the temperature of the subsurface bulk temperature in the top few meters of the ocean, measured by ships, buoys and drifters. From ships, measurements of water samples in buckets were mostly switched in the 1940s to samples from engine intake water. Satellite measurements of skin temperature (uppermost layer; a fraction of a millimeter thick) in the infrared or the top centimeter or so in the microwave are also used, but must be adjusted to be compatible with the bulk temperature. 139 R. Ramchandran, supra note 69, p. 14 140 Prof. Vinod K Sharma and Dr. Ashutosh Deo Kaushik, “Natural Disaster Management - An Overview”, World Focus, Sept. 2009, pp. 371-372 141 Mike Hulme, A Change in the Weather? Coming to Terms with Climate Change, France Harris, Global Environmental Issue, England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2004, pp. 26-27

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Climate change is the biggest sustainable development challenge the

international community has had to tackle to date. Measures to address climate

change need to be fully compatible with the international community’s wider

ambitions for economic growth and human advancement. It is a challenge that

transcends borders and requires solutions not only at national levels but at the

international level as well. The challenge is to translate and adapt the national

level policy imperatives and equity considerations to sub-national level actions, and

the State Governments have a key role to play in incorporating climate change

concerns in everyday governance and adopting climate -friendly policies, and

investment decisions.