impact 3-5th november 20044th impact project workshop zaragoza 1 investigation of extreme flood...

IMPACT

3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza

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Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

IMPACTInvestigation of Extreme Flood Processes And Uncertainty

IMPACT


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IMPACTInvestigation of ExtreMe Flood Processes And UnCertainTy

IMPACT


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IMPACTInvestigation of Extreme Flood Processes and Uncertainty

An overview


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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty

What is IMPACT?

• A research programme supported by the European Commission under the fifth framework programme and contributing to the implementation of the Generic Activity on Natural and Technological Hazards within the Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development Programme

• Some (FC cost)partners are also supported through national funding (e.g. HR Wallingford via the UK Defra / EA joint research programme; SWECO via Norwegian National Dam safety project etc.)


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What is IMPACT?

• A 3 year research programme:– started Dec 2001;– ends Nov 2004

• A Project comprising 11 partners from 10 countries

[See brochure, CD ROMS from previous workshops and website][www.impact-project.net]


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The problem to be solved...

“The assessment and reduction of risks from extreme flooding caused by natural events or the failure of dams and flood defence structures”

(Structures = dams, weirs, sluices, flood embankments, dikes, tailings dams etc.)


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The problem to be solved...

“To manage and minimise (flood) risks effectively it is necessary to be able to identify hazards and vulnerability in a consistent and reliable manner, to have good knowledge of structure behaviour in emergency situations, and to understand the potential consequences of failure in order to allow effective contingency planning for public safety”


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Scientific Objectives & Approach

Objectives are to:

• Advance scientific knowledge / understanding

• Develop predictive tools / methods

in five areas:


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• Breaching of embankments (dams & flood defences) (WP2)

• Flood propagation through valley and urban areas (WP3)

• Movement of sediment (WP4)

• Quantifying risk and uncertainty (WP5)

• Geophysics and field data collection (WP6)

Based upon recommendations from CADAM and UK RTDwww.hrwallingford.co.uk/projects/CADAM

IMPACT


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CADAM

Concerted Action on Dambreak Modelling


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CADAM

• Concerted Action means…

• Integration of partners existing R&D programme

• Focus on numerical modelling of dambreak shifting on to include breach, sediments, risk assessment

• Identification of R&D needs feeding into creation of European Commission FP5 work programme


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Four workshops in 2 yearscovering a range of dambreak related topics:

CADAM

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upstream

Oblique bore

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CADAM - Outputs

• 4 workshops covering range of dambreak topics

• Proceedings online

• Guidance document: “Dambreak modelling guidelines and best practice”

• Project Report (detailed findings and recommended R&D)

– Total of 31 specific conclusions

• http://www.hrwallingford.co.uk/projects/CADAM/CADAM/index.html


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Sediment Movement

[WP4]

FloodPropagation

[WP3]

Breach Formation

[WP2]

Risk & uncertaintyAssessment of individual and

combined uncertainty

Implications for End User Applications

[WP5]

Geophysics / Field Data

[WP6]


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Generic approach is via a combination of:

• Fieldwork

• Laboratory physical modelling

• Desk analysis

• Computational modelling

including a focus upon assessment of process uncertainty in all areas


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Benefits of the IMPACT Project

Reduction of risk through:

• improved understanding of extreme processes, hence improved understanding of associated risks to the public, environment, assets etc.

• improved reliability of modelling tools

• improved understanding of modelling tools and results, leading to more appropriate application of predictions (e.g. emergency planning)


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Some Key Aspects of Implementation

The Overall Approach

• To keep a focus on overall objectives and application by end users

• To complement and benefit from other National & International R&D (interaction with additional organisations wherever possible)

• End user take up / application of results– Deliverables to be used / integrated into national or

organisation specific programmes


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Conclusions / Deliverables

• (Draft) summary papers in notes

• WP2 Breach formation:

– Understanding the breach formation process

– Existing models; development of models; performance of models

– Breach case study data; factors affecting breach location


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• WP3: Flood Propagation:

– Understanding flow behaviour in urban areas

– Comparing different modelling approaches for simulating urban flooding

– Improving the accuracy of flood propagation modelling in natural topographies


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• WP4: Sediment Movement

– Understanding and modelling near field sediment movement; our ability to accurately predict flood and sediment; new approaches

– Understanding and modelling far field sediment movement; our ability to accurately predict flood and sediment; new approaches


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• WP5: Uncertainty modelling

– Understanding uncertainty within modelling

– Simple approach to assessing magnitude of uncertainty

– Application to case study

– Implications for end users of flood modelling data


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• WP6: Geophysics and field data

– Assessing performance of geophysical investigation techniques for assessing embankment integrity

– Development of a rapid assessment technique for rapid, economical assessment of long lengths of flood defence embankment

– Collection of field data relating to embankment failure; data relating to embankment condition, structure and failure process


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Immediate Implementation...

• 4th IMPACT Workshop hosted here at Zaragoza

• Wed am Tous case study - propagation modelling• Wed pm Uncertainty / Workshops

• Thur Overview of each work packageKey results, conclusions

• Fri am Case study applications; Discussion & review; Overall conclusions

• [Fri pm IMPACT team meeting]

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12 Welcome / Introduction Francisco Alcrudo /Mark Morris

09:30

13 The IMPACT ProjectProject aims and objectives

Mark Morris 09:45

14 Theme Area 2 : Breach FormationSpecific objectives & deliverablesWork, results, conclusions & deliverablesImplications for breach modelling and end usersDiscussion

Mark MorrisKjetil Vaskinn

Greg Hanson(TBC)..........

10:00

15 Tea / Coffee break 11:0016 Theme Area 3 : Flood propagation

Specific objectives & deliverablesWork, results, conclusions & deliverablesImplications for flood modelling and end usersDiscussion

Francisco Alcrudo 11:30

17 Theme Area 4 : Sediment movementSpecific objectives & deliverablesWork, results, conclusions & deliverablesImplications for sediment modelling and endusersDiscussion

Yves ZechSandra Soares

Denis Aelbrecht...........

12:30

18 Lunch 13:30


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18 Lunch 13:3019 Theme Area 5 : Process Uncertainty

Specific objectives & deliverablesReview and Analysis of modelling results(Breach & Flood Propagation)Conclusions & deliverablesImplications for modelling and end usersDiscussion

Mark MorrisFrancisco Alcrudo

Des Hartford........

15:00

20 Tea / Coffee break 16:0021 Theme Area 6 : Geophysics and Field Data

Specific objectives & deliverablesWork, results, conclusions & deliverablesImplications for breach modelling and end usersDiscussion

Zuzana BoukalovaSandy Toth

Greg Hanson(TBC)....

16:30

Close Francisco Alcrudo 17:3022 Evening dinner 20:30


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23 Conclusions from Flood Propagation CaseStudy

Conclusions from workshop Sessions 9 & 12 -modelling work and results (inc uncertainty)Conclusions and implications for end users

Francisco Alcrudo;Guido Testa; YvesZech; Sandra Soares;Mark Morris

9:30

24 Case study: Lake Ha!Ha!Specific objectives & deliverablesWork, results, conclusions & deliverablesImplications for modelling and end usersDiscussion

Yves ZechSandra Soares

Mervyn Bramley............

10:00

25 Tea / Coffee break 10:45


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25 Tea / Coffee break 10:45

26 Discussion & Review:Key conclusions and findings;

Implications for industry

Open discussion11:15

27 International researchCurrent needs; exploitation of IMPACT by industryExisting and planned RTD within this field

Des Hartford (TBC)

Open discussion

12:00

Workshop close Francisco AlcrudoMark Morris

Paul Samuels..............

12:30–

13:00Lunch 13:00

impact 3-5th november 20044th impact project workshop zaragoza 1 investigation of extreme flood...

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