ierm overview goals: 1. development of an integrated, whole-system model for ecological response to...
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IERM Overview
Goals: 1. Development of an integrated, whole-
system model for ecological response to water level/flow scenarios
2. Blend ecological research from LOSL study with existing data and knowledge base for system
Five main benefits to incorporating data collection into the IERM Scale integration Process representation Extending available data Spatial extrapolation Evaluation of competing responses
Benefit #1: Scale Integration
IERM will provide means for integrating a range of spatial and temporal scales
Includes H&H inputs as well as ecosystem interactions
Example:
H&H Inputs(weekly)
Muskrat Response(annual)
Plant Community Response (long-term)
Fish Response(seasonal)
Algal Response(weekly)
Benefit #2: Process Representation
Representation of processes that explain community/population dynamics
Process-based model provides predictive capability
Connects indicator to stressors
Potentially connects indicator species to entire community
Process Representation – Sport Fish Example
Temperature
Water Level& Flow
NutrientSources
Phytoplankton
Zooplankton
PlanktivorousFish
YOY Abundance•Growth•Predation•Natural Mortality
Juvenile Abundance•Growth•Predation•Natural Mortality
Habitat Quantity& Quality
Adult Abundance•Growth•Natural Mortality•Reproduction
(Graduation)
(Graduation)
Stocking
Harvest
Species or Guild
Benefit #3: Extending Available Data
Model can account for time lag in cause-effect relationships
Measured fish guild response depends on initial community abundance/structure prior to field experiment
Consider feedbacks between ecosystem components (e.g. muskrat cattails)
Benefit #4: Spatial Extrapolation
IERM provides avenue for extending results for a localized area to other parts of the system
Need to include all important governing factors to make extrapolation work
Examples: Extend results for 32 Lake Ontario wetlands to other wetland areas
Extend dabbling duck nesting success for Lake St. Pierre to Lake Ontario
Benefit #5: Evaluate Competing Responses
Data collection efforts address responses for individual species
IERM provides “big picture” evaluation of all species responses
Example: Regulation “Scenario X” impacts:
Wetland diversity Northern pike population Dabbling duck population Muskrat population
Evaluate Competing Responses - Example
St. LawrenceFlow Variations
Lake OntarioWL Variations
Wetland Plant Diversity
Wetland Plant Diversity
Cattail Abundance
Northern Pike Habitat Quality
Northern Pike Habitat Quality
Muskrat Habitat Quality
Muskrat Habitat Quality
Regulation
Cattail Abundance