ian butler inda, association of nonwoven fabrics industry/media/.../01_nonwoven... · u.s. 2011...

Ian Butler INDA, Association of Nonwoven Fabrics Industry

Trends NAFTA

Economy Up US Dollar Up Recycling “Green” Up Air Quality Issues Up Population Aging Stable

Trends European Union

Economy Slow Growth Euro Down Green Established & Up “Made in Europe” Up Population Aging Increase Country Defaults Pending

Trends China

Economy Up RMB Up Recycling Green Non-existent Population Aging Stable

Gross Domestic Product By World Region Forecast Growth Rate

Region 2011 World GDP 2016 2011-2016 ($, trillions) ($, share) ($, trillions) (% per year)

NAFTA 18.2 23% 22.6 4.1 European Union 15.7 21% 18.7 3.5 China 11.2 14% 18.9 11.0 Japan 4.4 6% 5.3 3.0 India 4.4 6% 7.0 10.0 Rest of World 24.2 30% 32.8 6.1

WORLD 78.1 100.0% 105.3 6.0

Source: CIA estimates

Outlook for Worldwide Nonwovens Production

1997

2002

2011

2016

Growth Rate

1997-2010 (%/Year)

Growth Rate

2011-2016 (%/Year)

Dollars (billions)

$11 $15 $26 $37 6.2% 7.8%

Sq Meters (billions)

61 93 205 305 8.7% 9.0%

Tonnes (millions)

2.7 4.0 7.6 11.1 7.7% 7.8%

Source: INDA estimates

Outlook for Worldwide Nonwovens Production (millions of tonnes)

2006

2011

2016

Growth Rate 2006-2011

(%/Year)

Growth Rate 2011-2016

(%/Year) NAFTA 1.61 1.87 2.20 3.0% 3.3%

Europe 1.56 1.95 2.60 4.6% 5.9%

China 0.97 1.65 2.82 10.5% 12.0%

Other Asia Pacific 0.51 0.59 0.78 3.0% 5.7%

Japan 0.33 0.33 0.35 0.0% 1.2%

Middle East 0.26 0.32 0.45 3.6% 7.7%

Rest of World 0.44 0.90 1.88 16.6% 14.6% TOTAL 5.68 7.61 11.08 6.0% 7.8%


2011 NA Nonwovens Market

Short-Life 70%

Long-Life 30%

1.57 million tonnes

Short-Life 68%

Long-Life 32%

$6.0 billion


Summary of 2011 NA Disposable Market Value $ 4.1

(billion)

Absorbent Hygiene

20%

Wipes 19%

Medical/ Surgical

18%

Air/Liquid Filtration

20%

Protective Apparel

13%

Other Disposables

10%


Summary of 2011 NA Disposable Market 1,091,000

(tonnes)

Absorbent Hygiene

30%

Wipes 26%

Medical/ Surgical

15%

Air/Liquid Filtration

15%

Protective Apparel

2%

Other Disposables

12%


Baby Diaper Trends

NAFTA sales stagnant due to sluggish economy in 2011. Expect much of the same in 2012. Increased promotional activity and bulk packaging to reduce costs to consumer Increasing segmentation of market:

More product differentiation: Baby Diapers available in more colors … and print patterns More Seasonal and Limited Edition diapers (similar to Huggies’ Little Movers concept)


Baby Diaper Trends

Diaper components continue to move towards lower weights to reduce unit and shipping cost

Development of small Vac-Packaged travel / emergency diapers for convenience


Feminine Care Trends

Feminine pad designs trending to thinner, slimmer and lighter adult products Menstruation starting earlier and products under development for 10-14 year olds

Pads and tampons are shorter, narrower and lighter Pads and tampons have brilliant colors and prints to attract youth (see U by Kotex products)


Wipes Trends

Expect more industry consolidation (Ahlstrom->Suominen) Flushable wipes issue continues to simmer. It is in our interest to understand flushability issues Airlaid Pulp and Wetlaid technologies recapturing some volume lost to spunlaced nonwovens


Summary 2011 NA Durable Market $1.9 (billions) Interlining

2% Shoe

Construction 1%

Upholstered furnishing &

bedding 12%

Automotive 9%

Geotextiles 16%

Building Construction

8%

Agric/ Landscape

4%

Carpet components

/ backing 10%

Coated & Laminates

6%

Battery Separators

11%

Other Durables

21%


Summary 2011 NA Durable Market 476,000 Tonnes (thousands)

Interlining 1%

Shoe Construction

1%


bedding 17%

Automotive 7%

Geotextiles 25% Building

Construction 10%

Agric/ Landscape

6%

Carpet components/

backing 10%

Coated & Laminates

6%

Battery Separators

3%

Other Durables

14%


Outlook for 2012 Economy

• Forecast growth for NAFTA 3 - 4% • No double dip recession • Unemployment drops to 8% range • Inflation contained • Housing construction … starting to

grow • Short term interest rates to remain low


Summary 2011 European Disposable Market

Source: INDA Estimates

1,096,200 tonnes

Filtration 129 12% Medical

58 5%

Wipes 321 28%

Hygiene 588 55%

Summary 2011 European Durable Market

Interlining 4%

Shoe Construction

3%


bedding 12%

Automotive 10%

Geotextiles 14%

Building Construction

30%

Agric/ Landscape

5%

Carpet components/

backing 10%

Carpet components/

backing 4%

Coated & Laminates

5% Battery

Separators 0%

Other Durables

3%

(853,800 tonnes)


2011 European Nonwovens Market By Technology

Source: INDA Estimates

Spunmelt 43%

Thermally-bonded

9%

Chemically-bonded

9%

Needled 10%

Spunlaced 12%

Composites

1%

Wetlaid 6%

Airlaid 10%

(1.95 million tonnes)

2011 Asian Nonwovens Market 2.6 million tonnes

Source: ANFA estimates

Japan 10%

Korea 7%

Taiwan 5%

China 68%

India 6%

Other 4%

2016 Nonwoven Projection in Asia 4.3 million tonnes

Source: ANFA estimates

Japan 5%

Korea 5%

Taiwan 2%

China 79%

India 6%

Other 3%

2011 U.S. Nonwovens Trade (thousands of tonnes, roll goods)


0255075

100125150175200225250275300325

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 9920

00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Exports 290 tonnes

Imports 190 tonnes

China 22%

Israel 10%

Mexico 9%

Brazil 8%

Canada 7%

Germany 7%

Other 36%

U.S. 2011 Nonwoven Imports…Top 6 Countries (191,000 tonnes)


U.S. 2011 Nonwoven Exports … Top 6 Countries (290,000 tonnes)

Canada 22%

Mexico, 21% U.K. 4%

China 13%

Honduras 3% Japan 4%

• Latest converting applications using ultrasonic, coating, laminating, water jet, and laser technologies

• New market opportunities and applications in medical, military, alternative energy, automotive, geotextiles, building/construction, protective barriers and more

• Table-tops and receptions to maximize networking opportunities

ian butler inda, association of nonwoven fabrics industry/media/.../01_nonwoven... · u.s. 2011...

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