i latin american and the caribbean workshop assesment for impacts and adaptation to climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
I Latin American and the Caribbean Workshop
Assesment for Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)
27-30 May 2003Luis Jose Mata
Introduccion to Extreme Events and Climate Change
Ier. Taller Latinoamericano y del Caribe (AIACC)
San Jose, Costa Rica, Mayo, 2003
Luis J. Mata 1 M.Rusticucci 2, S.Solman 3 J. B. Valdés 4
1Center for Develompment Research, University of Bonn, Germany, [email protected]
2 Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina, [email protected]
3 CIMA (Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera) and Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina, [email protected]
4 Dept. of Civil Engineering and SAHRA (Sustainability for Semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas) Center, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, [email protected]
ZEF
Outline (ideas)
1- Some fundamental from IPCC TAR
2- Climate change is not only about changes in average values —in addition to changes in the mean it is very important to examine trends in extreme events. 3- Theoretical view—linear increase in the mean and variability imply a nonlinear increase of climate extremes
4- This theoretic matter is confronted with some observations
5- Adaptation and needs of good forecasting
Some fundamental from IPCC TAR and other sources
Estimates of confidence in observed and projected change in some
extreme events
Change in climate phenomenon
Confidence in observed changes (latest half of 20th century)
Confidence in projected changes (during 21st century)
Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas
Likely Very Likely
Higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days over nearly all land areas
Very Likely Very Likely
Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas
Very Likely Very Likely
More intense precipitation events
Likely (northern hemisphere, mid latitude areas)
Very Likely
Increased droughts and floods associated with El Nino event in many regions
Likely Likely
Source: IPCC, 2001 Very Likely (90-99%chance) Likely (66-90% chance)
Estimates of confidence in observed and projected change in some
extreme events
Change in climate phenomenon
Confidence in observed changes (latest half of 20th century)
Confidence in projected changes (during 21st century)
Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas
Likely Very Likely
Higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days over nearly all land areas
Very Likely Very Likely
Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas
Very Likely Very Likely
More intense precipitation events
Likely (northern hemisphere, mid latitude areas)
Very Likely
Increased droughts and floods associated with El Nino event in many regions
Likely Likely
Source: IPCC, 2001 Very Likely (90-99%chance) Likely (66-90% chance)
Examples of ENSO impacts on several Latin American Countries
Subregion or Country Impacted Climatological/Hydrological Variable
El Nino La Nina
Argentina
(Pampas)
Increase in precipitation during November-January
Decrease in precipitation during October-December
Chile and Central Western Argentina
Increase in runoff Negative rainfall anomalies
Colombia Decrease in precipitation, soil moisture and river streamflow
Heavier precipitation and floods
Northern Amazon and Norheast Brazil
Decrease in precipitation during rainy season (severe drought in NE Brazil)
Increase in precipitation, higher runoff
Source: Mata & Campos, 2001
Type Description
Simple extremes
Individual local weather variables exceeding critical level on a continuous scale (e.g.,temperature, precipitation)
Complex extremes
Severe weather associated with particular climatic phenomena, often requiring a critical combination of variables (e.g., tropical cyclones)
Unique or singular phenomena
A plausible future climatic state with potentially extreme large-scale or global outcomes(e.g., THC)
Source: Chapter 1 IPCC, 2001
Typology of Extreme Events
Temperature and Precipitation
- The increased in temperature is associated with an stronger warming in daily minimum temperatures than maximum (Easterling et al., 1997)
- Global precipitation has also increased since the late 19th century (IPCC, 2001).
- Given these increases, it is expected that there would also be increases in extreme events (Mearns et al., 1984)
The planet averaged an even 14.0 C between 1961-90. The average temperature in 2002 was about 14.55 the second warmest year on record
Global average mean temperature has increased by 0.6± 0.2 ° C since the late 19th century
Climate change is not only about changes in average values—in addition to changes in the mean it is very important to examine trends in extreme events
Trends on annual and seasonal (DJF and JJA) rainfall in Corrientes, Argentina
Daily and Cumulative Rainfall
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Time (days)
Pre
cip
itat
ion
in m
m
Figure 4. Rainfall occurred in Venezuela on December 1999 caused over 30,000 deaths and great economic losses.
Heavy Precipitation and landslides
Annual maxima 951mm in 1954
LJM,2002Source: MARN,2000
cumulative
daily
Was these extreme? Yes!!!—but not implausible given the historical evidence
They claim that the 1999 event has a sizeable probability which implies that such an occurence within a reasonably short time horizon could have been anticipated
Was the Venezuelan Central Coast December 1999 an unique event?
Source: Coles et al, 2003
Some other extreme events (e.g., floods)
Germany China Venezuela
Summer 2002
Costa Rica
December 2002
Water Extremes
Bonn Flood (Rhein River)
Mozambique Flood
Location (Continent)
Duration(Days)
Affected Region (sq km)
Damage(USD perSq. km)
C. Europe(Europe)
18(August)
252.300 79.270
S. Russia(Asia)
12(June)
224.600 1.945
W. Venezuela(South America)
11(July)
224.900 13,34
NW China(Asia)
10(June)
252.000 1.587
Source: Darmouth Flood Observatory Photo: C.Stache/AP DRESDEN
Some floods in summer(June-August 2002)
An increase in mean and variance imply anonlinear increase in the probability of extremes
Theory
Mean T0
± 1 SDThreshold Threshold
New Mean
Probability of high extremes
Probability of low extremes
Mean T0Mean T0Mean T0
An increase in mean and variance imply anonlinear increase in the probability of extremes
± 1 SD± 1 SD
LJM,2002
Threshold ThresholdThresholdThreshold ThresholdThreshold
New MeanNew MeanNew Mean
Probability of low extremes
Probability of high extremesProbability of
low extremes
Probability of high extremesProbability of high extremesProbability of high extremes
Observations
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
0.0000
0.0004
0.0008
0.0012
Figure 5. Annual precipitation PDF at Corrientes, Argentina
Annual rainfall in mm
Density
Mean 1902-1944= 1186.95 mmMean 1945-1999 =1431.00 mm
Source: Olga Penalba, personal comunication 2002
LJM,2003
Figure 3. Extreme value distributions of maximum flows on Paraná river at Corrientes (1904-1960 and 1961-1997)
Source: Valdés, 2002 personal communication
Something about adaptation
Adaptation candecrease the probability of extremes
ThresholdThreshold
Probability of low
extremes
Probability of high
extremes
Coping range
animation4
Adaptation candecrease the probability of extremes
Probability of low
extremes
Probability of high
extremes
ThresholdThreshold Adaptation
LJM,2002
animation5
Due to a good flood forecastingPhoto: L.J.Mata,1998
Anticipatory Adaptation
Gracias