observed impacts of climate change aiacc project development workshop trieste, italy june, 2002...
TRANSCRIPT
Observed Impacts of Climate Change
AIACC Project Development WorkshopTrieste, ItalyJune, 2002
Potential AIACC Contributions
Cynthia Rosenzweig
IPCC Definition of Climate Change
A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of climate or in its variability,
persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer).
Climate change may be due to internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent
anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.
Observed tem perature trends (1970-2000)
Tem perature (°C)
<-1.5 -1 0 0-5 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5> No DataGISS, 2001
1970-2000
IPCC Working Group I “A collective picture of a warming world”
Studies using remote sensing
IPCC WG II “Recent regional climate changes . . . have already affected many physical and biological systems.”
Rosenzweig and Iglesias, 2001
Physical and Biological Systems
• Hydrology and Glaciers: Glacier retreat, decrease in snow-cover extent/earlier snowmelt, reduction in annual duration of lake and river ice
• Sea Ice: Decline in sea-ice extent and thickness
• Animals and Plants: Poleward and elevational shifts in range, change in species abundance, phenology (earlier reproduction and migration), physiological and morphological adaptation
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2800 2900 3000 3200 33003100 3400 35000
Altitudes o f sum m its
f h is t.f p resent
A ltitude (m )
Year
210
Le
ngth
(d
ays
) 200
190
180
170160
150
1401890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
High Altitude and High Latitude Changes
Mountain vegetation Grabherr et al., 1997
Length of growing season, Finland
Carter, 1998
Criteria and Confidence Estimation
• Studies examined >600 species10% showed no change90% showed change
20% changed in unexpected way80% changed in expected way
• Probability that 452 species out of 564 are changing in expected direction by chance alone is highly negligible (P<<0.00001)
• Impact shows trend over time, temperature shows trend over time, impact and temperature are functionally related. >/= 20 years
2
1
0
-1
-21901 1921 1941 1961 1981
Year
St.
dev.
IPCC WG II “There are preliminary indications that some human systems have been affected by recent
increases in floods and droughts.”
IPCC WGII, 2001
Rainfall fluctuations in the Sahel
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0 .7 0 .8 N orm alized D ifference Vegetation Index
Maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
NOAA AVHRR
Human Systems
1. Some part of upward trend in historical disaster losses due to flooding in North America (Pielke and Downton, 2001).
2. Persistent drying trend in parts of Africa has affected food production, including freshwater fisheries, industrial and domestic water supplies, hydropower generation (Magadza, 1996; Benson and Clay, 1998; Chifamba, 2000).
Preliminary Indications that Some Human SystemsHave been Affected by Recent Increases in Floods and Droughts
IPCC WGII TAR, 2001
Caveats
• Length of time-series, number of replications, census sites, species, availability of climate data
• Presence of multiple factors Land-use change, pollution, biotic invasion
• Spatial scales of climate and impacts processes
• Human system impacts especially difficult to prove
Research Questions
• How can effects of changing regional climates best be detected?
• Are observed effects of regional climate changes consistent with functional understanding and modeled predictions of impacts?
• Do observed effects provide information about adaptation and vulnerability to climate change?
• Are impacts of observed climate trends prevalentacross diverse systems, multiple sectors, and geographic regions?
• Is there a coherent signal in patterns of observedimpacts?
Potential AIACC Contributions
• Wide geographical and system distributionof studies on observed climate change**
• Physical and Biological Systems***
• Human Systems***Agriculture, Food Security, Health,Water Resources
• Sea-level Rise, Coastal Zones***, Urban Areas
• Impacts and Adaptations***
**Rising temperature, trends in extreme events
46
48
50
52
54
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E (
F)
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
Slope=.2 F / Decade
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
(IN
CH
ES
) PRECIPITATION
Slope=.1 Inches / Decade
NOTE: 23 station average, corrected for urban heat island effect
Historical
Climate
Trends
Observed Impacts ResearchMetro East Coast
Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2001
1.2 (+/- 0.5) Adm in NYC/100ppb ozone/day/1,000,000 people
Thurston et al., 1992
Projected increase in MEC
hospital admissions
2030 819
2100 3,319
Kinney, Shindell, et al., 2001
Trend in Tmax O bserved days/year tm ax>90 F
S lope=+3.39 days per decade
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
79 82 85 88 91 94
Day
s
MEC, 2001
MEC, 2001
Stakeholder: NYC Department of Health
Public Health
Household income
Incidence of asthma
Stakeholder: New York City Department of Health Kinney et al., 2001
Christopher Small, LDEO/Columbia University, 2000Christopher Small, LDEO/Columbia University, 2000Christopher Small, LDEO/Columbia University, 2000
Sea-level Rise, Infrastructure, and Wetland Loss
Stakeholders: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey National Park Service, Gateway National Recreation Area
Jacob et al., 2001Hartig et al., 2001
Climate Data
• Regional trends in temperature, precipitation, variability
• Timeframe varies with system and focus
• Observed met. data ~1860 - present
• Climate shift ~1976
• Monthly data adequate for many studies
• Gridded vs. site data
Links to Monitoring Programs
• IGBP PAGES, NASA/INPE LAMBADA, GCOS
• LTER sites, MAB Biosphere Reserves
Links to Population and Land-Use Data
• CIESIN population data
• UMD, EROS land-use change data