human resource planning2

7/29/2019 Human Resource Planning2

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Human Resources Planning

Process



The Process of Human Resource Planning

• Organizations need to do human resource

planning so they can meet business objectives

and gain a competitive advantage over

competitors.

– Human resource planning compares the present state

of the organization with its goals for the future – Then identifies what changes it must make in its

human resources to meet those goals



Overview of the Human Resource Planning

Process



Human Resource Forecasting

• HR Forecastingattempts

to determine the supply

and demand for various

types of human resources,and to predict areas

within the organization

where there will be labor

shortages or surpluses.

There are three major

steps to forecasting:

1. Forecasting the demand

for labor

2. Determining labor

supply

3. Determining labor surpluses and shortages



HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

FORECASTING HR REQUIREMENTS (DEMAND ANALYSIS)

(Trying to predict future staffing needs)

Managerial Estimates

Sales Projections

Simulations

Vacancy Analysis (projected turnover)

FORECASTING HR AVAILABILITY (SUPPLY ANALYSIS)

(Predicting worker flows and availabilities)

Succession or Replacement Charts

Skills Inventories (use of HRIS)

Labor Market Analysis

Markov Analysis (Transition Matrix)

Personnel Ratios



Forecasting the Demand for Labor

Trend Analysis

• Constructing and applying statistical models that predict

labor demand for the next year, given relatively objective

statistics from the previous year.

Leading Indicators

• Objective measures that accurately predict future labor

demand.



CORRELATIONS/PROJECTIONS

SIZE OF HOSPITAL NUMBER OF NURSES

200 240

300 260

400 470

500 500

600 620

700 660

800 820

900 860



SIMULATION MODEL/REGRESSION FORECAST

TARGET STORES STAFFING FORECAST

MODEL

Y = 8 + .0011(X1) + .00004(X2) + .02(X3)

Y = Number of employees needed to staff the store

X1 = Square feet of sales spaceX2 = Population of metropolitan area

X3 = Projected annual disposable income in millions of dollars

Y = 8 + .0011(50,000sq ft) + .00004(150,000popul) + .00000002($850 million)

Y = 8 + 55 + 6 + 17

Y = 86 employees needed at this store



VACANCY ANALYSISHistoric departures used to project turnover

LEVEL # EMPL TURN % Expected Vacancies Expected to Remain

TOP MGMT 100 20 % 20 80

MID MGMT 200 24 % 48 152

LOW MGMT 600 22 % 132 468

SKILLED W 600 16% 96 504

ASSY WKRS 2000 12 % 240 1760

TOTALS 3500 536 2964

AVERAGE TURNOVER PERCENTAGE = 536 / 3500 = .1531



Determining Labor SupplyPredicting Worker Flows and Availabilities

• Succession or Replacement ChartsWho has been groomed/developed and is ready for promotion right NOW?

• Human Resource Information Systems (HRIS)An employee database that can be searched when vacancies occur.

• Transition Matrices (Markov Analysis)A chart that lists job categories held in one period and shows the proportion of

employees in each of those job categories in a future period.

It answers two questions:

1. “Where did people in each job category go?”

2. “Where did people now in each job category come from?

• Personnel / Yield RatiosHow much work will it take to recruit one new accountant?



SUCCESSION PLANNING

REPLACEMENT CHARTFOR EXECUTIVE POSITIONS

POSITION REPLACEMENT CARDSFOR EACH INDIVIDUAL POSITION

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

POSITION WESTERN DIVISION SALES MANAGER

DANIEL BEALER Western Division Sales Mgr Outstanding Ready Now

PRESENT PROMOTION

POSSIBLE CANDIDATES CURRENT POSITION PERFORMANCE POTENTIAL

SHARON GREEN Western Oregon Sales Manager Outstanding Ready NowGEORGE WEI N. California Sales Manager Outstanding Needs Training

HARRY SHOW Idaho/Utah Sales Manager Satisfactory Needs Training TRAVIS WOOD Seattle Area Sales Manager Satisfactory Questionable

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



HUMAN RESOURCE INFORMATION SYSTEMS

(HRIS)

PERSONAL DATA

Age, Gender, Dependents, Marital status, etcEDUCATION & SKILLS

Degrees earned, Licenses, Certifications

Languages spoken, Specialty skills

Ability/knowledge to operate specific machines/equipment/software

JOB HISTORY J ob Titles held, Location in Company, Time in each position, etc.

Performance appraisals, Promotions received, Training & Development

MEMBERSHIPS & ACHIEVEMENTS

Professional Associations, Recognition and Notable accomplishments

PREFERENCES & INTERESTS

Career goals, Types of positions sought

Geographic preferences

CAPACITY FOR GROWTH

Potential for advancement, upward mobility and growth in the company



Transition Matrix

Example for an Auto Parts Manufacturer



MARKOV ANALYSIS(STATISTICAL REPLACEMENT ANALYSIS)

TO: A TRANSITION MATRIX

FROM:TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT

TOP .80 .02 .18

MID .10 .76 .04 .10

LOW .06 .78 .01 .15

SKILL .01 .84 .15

ASSY .05 .88 .07

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



MARKOV ANALYSIS – 2(Captures effects of internal transfers)

(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX

FROM/ TO:

TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXITTOP 100 .80 .02 .18

MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10

LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15

SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15

ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left]

NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 240* 368 tot

NEED LAYOFFS ? (10)* (10) tot

KEEP STABLE 100 200 600 600 2000 = 3500 Tot



MARKOV ANALYSIS – 3(Anticipates Changes in Employment Levels)

Employment needs are changing. We need a 10% increase in skilled workers

(660), and a 15% decrease in assembly workers (1700) by year’s end.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX

FROM/ TO: TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT

TOP 100 .80 .02 .18

MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10

LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15

SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15

ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left] NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 50*

NEED LAYOFFS ? (60)*

NEW LEVELS 100 200 600 600 1700 = 3260 tot



Determining Labor Surplus or Shortage

• Based on the forecasts for labor demand and

supply, the planner can compare the figures to

determine whether there will be a shortage or

surplus of labor for each job category.

• Determining expected shortages and surpluses

allows the organization to plan how to address

these challenges.



PERSONNEL / YIELD RATIOS

Past experience has developed these yield ratios for recruiting a Cost Accountant:

FOR EVERY 12 APPLICATIONS RECEIVED, ONLY 1 LOOKSPROMISING ENOUGH TO INVITE FOR AN INTERVIEW

OF EVERY 5 PERSONS INTERVIEWED, ONLY 1 IS ACTUALLYOFFERED A POSITION IN THE ORGANIZATION

OF EVERY 3 JOB OFFERS MADE, ONLY 2 ACCEPT THE POSITION

OF EVERY 10 NEW WORKERS WHO BEGIN THE TRAININGPROGRAM, ONLY 9 SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETE THE PROGRAM

THUS: 100 APPLICATIONS MUST BE RECEIVED, so that

8.33 JOB INTERVIEWS CAN BE HELD, so that

1.67 JOB OFFERS CAN BE MADE, and

1.11 PEOPLE MUST BE TRAINED, so that we get

ONE NEW COST ACCOUNTANT!!!



Thank you…

human resource planning2

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