hpa 2005 technology retreat: ce industry overview
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HPA 2005 Technology Retreat: CE Industry Overview. Brian Markwalter Vice President, Technology Consumer Electronics Association. Trend #1. A Strong and Growing Industry. CE Industry Growth. 10.7%. 10.7%. 7.1%. Audio Quarterly Trends. Units: +3.3% Dollars: +13.0%. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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HPA 2005 Technology HPA 2005 Technology Retreat:Retreat:
CE Industry OverviewCE Industry OverviewBrian Markwalter
Vice President, Technology
Consumer Electronics Association
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Trend #1Trend #1
A Strong and Growing Industry
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CE Industry GrowthCE Industry GrowthBillions of Revenue
$96.9 $94.2 $95.8$102.6
$113.5$125.7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
10.7%7.1%
10.7%
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Audio Quarterly TrendsAudio Quarterly Trends
Year-Over-Year Changes
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q1 2
001
Q2 2
001
Q3 2
001
Q4 2
001
Q1 2
002
Q2 2
002
Q3 2
002
Q4 2
002
Q1 2
003
Q2 2
003
Q3 2
003
Q4 2
003
Q1 2
004
Q2 2
004
Q3 2
004
Units
Dollars
Units: +3.3%Dollars: +13.0%
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Video Quarterly TrendsVideo Quarterly TrendsYear-Over-Year Changes
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q1 2
001
Q2 2
001
Q3 2
001
Q4 2
001
Q1 2
002
Q2 2
002
Q3 2
002
Q4 2
002
Q1 2
003
Q2 2
003
Q3 2
003
Q4 2
003
Q1 2
004
Q2 2
004
Q3 2
004
Units
Dollars
Units: +1.0%Dollars: +9.8%
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Trend #2Trend #2
A Product Explosion
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2004 Fastest Growing 2004 Fastest Growing ProductsProducts
(Based on Shipment Revenues)(Based on Shipment Revenues)1. Blank DVD Media 211.7%2. LCD TV 204.5%3. Digital Video Recorders 203.9%4. Portable MP3 Players 184.0%5. SDARS Tuners and Accessories 145.1%6. 5.8Mhz Cordless Phones 144.8%7. Flash Media 127.6%8. Plasma TV 58.4%9. Digital Direct-view and RPTV 40.2%10.Mobile Video and Navigation 34.8%
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Trend #3Trend #3
It’s All About the (Flat) Display
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Digital FPD ShipmentsDigital FPD ShipmentsThousands of Units
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
LCD TV
Plasma TV
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Digital FPD RevenuesDigital FPD RevenuesBillions of Wholesale Dollars
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
LCD TV
Plasma TV
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DMD PerformanceDMD PerformanceLCOS, LCD, DLP Rear-ProjectionLCOS, LCD, DLP Rear-Projection
Estimated Factory Sales
Thousands of Units
367
1,1481,433
1,719
2,2382,464
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
35% of RPTV
Shipments
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TV Market CompositionTV Market CompositionMillions of Unit TV Shipments
0
10
20
30
40
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
FlatProjectionDV CRT
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TV Revenue TV Revenue ContributionsContributions
Billions of Factory Dollars
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
FlatProjectionDV CRT
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Trend #4Trend #4
Content ExplosionAnd the Need for Storage
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Digital Imaging GrowthDigital Imaging GrowthFactory to U.S. Dealer Sales
Millions of Units
0
6
12
18
24
30
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Cameras Camcorders
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Average Image Average Image LibrariesLibraries
Now
Photos: 3,420
Storage:7.2 GB
In 5 Years
Photos: 600
Storage:1.26 GB
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Blank DVD MediaBlank DVD MediaU.S. Shipment Revenues
Millions of Dollars
$261
$435$502 $519
$560 $535
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Flash Media GrowthFlash Media GrowthU.S. Shipment Revenues
Millions of Dollars
$456 $643 $910$1,346
$3,064
$5,975
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
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Digital Recording Digital Recording OptionsOptions
Unit Shipments in Thousands
151
550877
1841
249 336170
519
2,359
3,361
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
DVD Recorders
DVR
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Trend #5Trend #5
Content On the Move
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Portable MP3 GrowthPortable MP3 GrowthFlash and HD-BasedFlash and HD-Based
Thousands of Unit Shipments
510 7241,737
3,031
6,952
8,609
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
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Satellite RadioSatellite RadioTuners and AccessoriesTuners and Accessories
Thousand of Unit Shipments
145 375
1,170
3,339
4,812
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
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Mobile Video Gaining Mobile Video Gaining VolumeVolume
Dollar Shipments in Millions
$386$436
$586 $580
$782
$935
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
* Includes mobile video displays, stand-alone DVD players, and DVD changers
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The Rise of MRAVThe Rise of MRAV
2004 Shipment VolumesThrough November 2004
Units:
3.8 million
Revenues:
$340 million
Based upon CEA’s MARA Shipment Data
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Audio Server GrowthAudio Server GrowthMonthly Unit Shipments
Sept. 2003 to Nov. 2004
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov
13.699 YTD
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DMS Purchase PlansDMS Purchase PlansWhen Plan to Purchase a DMS
9%20%
10%
58%
Within 1 year 1 to 5 years
from now
Never Don't Know
(Base: U.S. Online Adults)
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ClosingClosing
• 2005 International CES set records– 142,585 attendees (pre-audit)– 2,550 exhibitors– 1.531 million net square feet exhibit
space
• It’s great to be in CE
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Questions?
Please contact us for more information:(703) 907-7083 or visit www.ce.org