how behavioural psychology can explain brexit' - sxsw 2017 presentation - michael bodansky
TRANSCRIPT
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Behavioural Psychology and BrexitSXSW 2017Michael Bodansky - @mbodansky
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freuds: A legacy of psychology?
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• Post-Trump
• Rise of populism: Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders, Pegida
• About to trigger Article 50 and commence negotiations
March: More relevant now than ever
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System 1 vs System 2
7 PrinciplesHindsight bias
Game theoryLoss aversion
Status quo biasFairness
Anchoring
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• Beware of hindsight bias
• It will be remembered as a knife-edge vote
• Leave campaign was severely disadvantaged
Was it a close call?
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6
• System 1 vs System 2
• Can psychology explain decision making?
• Can this explain politics?
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Is politics system 1 or system 2?
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We hate losing
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• “We’ve had enough of experts”
• Translation: “We’ve had enough of system 2”
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• Ultimatum game
• Spite towards elites
• Prisoner exchange
Game theory
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• “Bigoted woman”
• Backlash against elites
• Don’t ridicule the swing voters
Politicians vs the people?
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• Report author: Leave brands are “traditional, straightforward, simple, down-to-earth, good value, friendly”
• “Remain brands are progressive, up-to-date, innovative, socially responsible, intelligent”
• Leave brands mostly products
• Remain brands are mostly services
Is there a ‘metropolitan elite’?
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Divided in attitude?
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• Marginal issues define us
• Why are there few protests against Syria?
• We focus on the minority at the expense of the majority
Political correctness gone mad?
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• Oxfam report: good or bad?
• Does fairness matter?
• How much unfairness can we tolerate?
Fairness is an evolved instinct
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Do we prefer a status quo?
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• Anchoring sets the parameters of the debate
• Important in negotiations
• Hijacks the conversation
The importance of anchoring
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• Blackmail and ultimatums are unwise
• EU to punish UK as deterrent?
• Fear of loss vs potential gains
Where do we go from here?