houston, texas - fort bend county · 2020-03-26 · the image cannot be displayed. your computer...
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Fort Bend County EDC Economic Overview
Houston, Texas
July 2016
6575 West Loop South, Suite 500 | Bellaire, TX 77401 | (713) 906-3829
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We Work for Executives Who Want to Make Informed Housing Industry Investment Decisions
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Regional Conclusions: 18 Offices, Monthly Analysis on 65 MSAs, 600+ Consulting studies per year; 220+ Builders surveyed monthly; Consumer Insights survey; Designlens.com.
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Economic Overview
4
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Employment Growth Forecast
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Peak Employment Comparison
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Job Growth By Industry
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Economic and Housing Market Trends – Income Growth
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Housing Market Overview
9
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Annual Existing Home Sales
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Annual Median Existing Home Price
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Months of Supply Estimate
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Total Permits – Houston MSA
Permit History & Projections 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019PSingle-Family Permits 22,363 22,150 22,692 28,542 34,560 38,319 36,786 35,922 31,700 27,300 27,600 29,100
1-Year Growth Rate -21% -1% 2% 26% 21% 11% -4% -6% -14% -14% 1% 5%Multifamily Permits 4,957 5,157 8,382 14,614 16,789 25,426 20,115 16,882 12,000 8,000 4,000 4,000
1-Year Growth Rate -66% 4% 63% 74% 15% 51% -21% -29% -40% -33% -50% 0%Total Permits 27,320 27,307 31,074 43,156 51,349 63,745 56,901 52,804 43,700 35,300 31,600 33,100
1-Year Growth Rate -36% 0% 14% 39% 19% 24% -11% -15% -23% -19% -10% 5%
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New Home Sales and Median Home Price
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Median Home Price: New vs. Existing
Home Price Compare 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CurrentMedian New Home Price $181,300 $187,600 $197,600 $208,300 $233,600 $257,300 $276,900 $277,500
1-Year Growth Rate -5% 3% 5% 5% 12% 10% 8% -1%Median Existing Home Price $152,042 $152,834 $153,702 $163,562 $180,517 $197,114 $212,368 $224,000
1-Year Growth Rate 0% 1% 1% 6% 10% 9% 8% 1%Home Price Spread - New over Resale $29,258 $34,766 $43,898 $44,738 $53,083 $60,186 $64,532 $53,500
Spread to New Price 19% 23% 29% 27% 29% 31% 30% 24%
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Cost of Home Ownership vs. Renting
(1) Entry-level 5% down with PMI buyer assumes the purchase of a home at 80% of the market’s median-priced resale home with a 5% down payment and a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. Payment includes PITI plus mortgage insurance.
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Rental Rates vs. Occupancy
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Houston Economy
18
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Texas Oil Production
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This map shows job exposure to mining / oil / gas in large housing markets compared to the US average of 1.0. For example, Houston’s energy sector job exposure is 6.6 times the US average.
Energy-Dependent Markets
Source: Brookings, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC (July 2015)
1.7x
6.6x
Bakersfield
Dallas
Houston
1.7x
Denver
1.5x
San Antonio
6.2x
2.4x
New Orleans
1.9x
Pittsburgh
5.5x
Oklahoma City
2.9x
Tulsa
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Houston’s Energy Exposure
Source: Greater Houston Partnership, University of Houston Institute for Regional Forecasting
Energy Sector Multiplier
• Every 1 job created/lost in energy sector results in another 3-4 jobs created/lost in non-energy sector, i.e.
• Restaurants • Grocery Stores • Hospitals • Real Estate
Development
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Energy Company Capital Expenditures
$181
$163
$131
$106
$80 $80
$0$20$40$60$80
$100$120$140$160$180$200
2013 2014 2015 2016p 2017p 2018p
Capital Expenditures by Year(Billions)
Chevron Exxon ConocoPhillips BP Shell
Source: Corporate Earnings Reports/Guidance
And energy companies have announced plan to cut capital spending 56% from the peak and 39% from 2015.
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Submarket Risk Analysis
23
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The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still Submarket Comparison: Market Risk Tier Characteristics
24
LowerRisk:LowerenergysectorexposureStrongernewhomemarketStrongerexis,nghome
marketLowersupplyoflots
BeIerlotvalueoutlook
HigherRisk:Higherenergysector
exposureWeakernewhome
marketWeakerexis,nghomemarket
HighersupplyoflotsWorsesinglefamily
lotoutlook
Mid-LevelRisk:
AveragemarketperformanceMixofhighs&
lows
Tiersareshownwithsomeoverlapasdifferentsubmarketscouldsharesomesimilarmarketcharacteris,cs.
Generallyspeaking,submarketsineachriskcategoryaresimilarinatleastsomekeycharacteris,cs.
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Existing Home Sales by Volume
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Existing Home Sales Growth by County
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Existing Home Price by County
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Existing Home Price Growth by County
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New Home Sales by County
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New Home Sales Growth by County
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New Home Median Price by County
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Months of Supply by County
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