High impact weather studies with advanced IR sounder data

Jun Li (Jun.Li@ssec.wisc.edu)Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI

Timothy J. SchmitNOAA/NESDIS, SaTellite Applications and Research (STAR), Advanced Satellite Products Branch (ASPB)Madison, WI

Jinlong LiCIMSS, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI

Jason OtikinCIMSS, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI

Hui LiuNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

Chian-Yi LiuCIMSS, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI

4. References Li, J., H. Liu, 2009: Improved Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecast Using Single Field-of-View Advanced IR Sounding

Measurements, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L11813, doi:10.1029/2009GL038285. Schmit, T. J., J. Li, S. Ackerman, J. Gurka, 2009: High-Spectral- and High-Temporal-Resolution Infrared Measurements from

Geostationary Orbit, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology (in press) Liu, H., and J. Li, 2009: An Improvement in Forecast of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Using Clear Sky Full Spatial

Resolution Advanced IR Soundings, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climate (submitted)

Acknowledgements: This study is partially supported by NOAA GOES-R program. The views, opinions, and findings contained in this report are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or U.S. Government position, policy, or decision.

Objectives(1)To study the needs and unique value for an advanced IR sounder in geostationary orbit for severe storm nowcasting. To demonstrate the unique value of a high temporal, high spatial and high

spectral resolution IR sounder on severe weather applications by depicting atmospheric structure, instability and inversion. The simulated radiances for current GOES Sounder, GOES-R ABI and future geostationary advanced IR sounder will be used in demonstration, and typical severe storm cases will be used in this study.

(2) To study the impact of high spatial and high spectral resolution advanced IR sounder data on tropical storm forecasts in a regional NWP model. Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) full resolution sounding data will be used in hurricane track and intensity assimilation experiments.

(3) To better use of combined GOES-R/S ABI and advanced sounding products for high impact weather.

1. Geostationary advanced sounder simulation for HIW – an application to severe storm warning

2. Regional hurricane/typhoon assimilation and forecast with advanced IR sounding product

5. Future workPerform experiments on using full spatial resolution advanced sounding product and simulated ABI profiles in order to demonstrate unique advantage of advanced sounding product in data assimilation for high impact weather forecastConduct impact study on the utility of temporal information of advanced sounding products by assimilating AIRS alone and AIRS plus IASIMore cases on hurricane, assimilation of soundings in cloudy regions will be investigatedDeveloping new severe storm cases for HIW studyProvide AIRS and IASI full spatial resolution soundings to Stan Bemjamin for their assimilation studiesStudy the impact of combined GOES imaging and advanced sounding systems on high impact weather forecast

The LI from true field (upper left), HES-like observations (upper right), ABI/GOES Sounder like observations (lower left), along with the simulated radar image (lower left) at 1300, 1700, 1800, and 2100 UTC, respectively, on 12 June 2002.

Retrieved 500mb temperature(2008.09.06 – Used in assimilation)

Clear sky AIRS SFOV temperature retrievals at 500 hPa on 06 September 2008, each pixel provides vertical temperature and moisture soundings.

Tracks of ensemble mean analysis on Hurricane IKE

Analysis from 06 UTC 6 to 00UTC 8 September 2008

Li and Liu 2009 (GRL)

CTL Run: Assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, aircraft data, and surface data.

AIRS

Sea level pressure (SLP) intensity on Hurricane IKE (2008)

Analysis from 06 UTC 6 to 00UTC 8 September 2008

Li and Liu 2009 (GRL)

AIRS

Full spatial resolution temperature and moisture profiles (13.5 km at nadir) from AIRS derived with CIMSS hyperspectral IR Sounding Retrieval algorithm (CHISR) have been used for Hurricane Ike (2008) and Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) assimilation and forecast.

The full spatial resolution AIRS soundings show positive impact on hurricane/typhoon track and intensity both in assimilation and forecast using the WRF/DART system with 36 km spatial resolution.

Full spatial resolution AIRS soundings significantly improve the definition of the typhoon vortex in the analysis and the forecast of the rapid intensification for Typhoon Sinlaku (2008).

Tracks of 96h forecasts on Hurricane IKE (2008)

Forecasts start at 00 UTC 8 September 2008 (Red line is observation, green line is forecast)

No AIRS With AIRS

3. Tropopause penetrating cloud (TPC) with advanced IR sounder measurements

Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Fact

Rapid intensification is observed

Sinlaku path

700 hPa water vapor mixing ratio (g/kg) (Sinlaku – 2008). GEO can provide more clear sky data with frequent observations !

(K)

(g/kg)

Tracks of ensemble mean analysis on Sinlaku (2008)

AIRS

One day (September 9, 2008) assimilation of AIRS for Typhoon Sinlaku

Tracks of 48h forecasts on Sinlaku (2008)

Forecasts start at 12 UTC 9 September 2008 (Redline is observation, green line is forecast)

Typhoon Morakot 2009,Heavy rainfall from TPC!

AIRS full spatial resolution sounding data used in assimilation

Track (left) and sea level pressure (right) analysis during assimilation period (two days) with AIRS full spatial resolution soundings Track forecast without (left) and with (right)

AIRS full spatial resolution sounding data

AIRS used in Typhoon assimilation

Track analysis during assimilation period Track forecast without (left) and with (right) AIRS. Rapid intensification is captured with AIRS.

Broadband method (minimum brightness temperature) can detect cold clouds but not necessary the tropopause penetrating clouds (TPC). With advanced sounder high spectral resolution brightness temperature spectra (e,g., the upper right panel), one can apply the online/offline technique to the water vapor absorption region to effectively distinguish the TPC (red region in upper left panel) from cold clouds (blue region in upper left panel), we found that TPCs are highly associated with heavy rainfall (lower right panel). Shown is the Typhoon Morakot (2009) case, lower left panel shows the brightness temperature image at an AIRS window channel. Morakot caused heavy precipitation in south Taiwan area.