heringer day heringer day 2011 eng caderninho...world reserves → available limited limited...
TRANSCRIPT
Heringer Day
August, 2011
2
Agenda
3:10 p.m. – Global and Local Fertilizer Industry Over view Company OverviewDalton Carlos HeringerCEO
4:00 p.m. – Questions and Answers Session
4:30 p.m. – Coffee break
5:00 p.m. – Global and Local Agribusiness Overview –André Pessoa - Agroconsult Consultoria e ProjetosManaging Partner
5:45 p.m. – Investor Relations and Closing
3
Global Fertilizer Industry
4
Global Fertilizer Consumption by Nutrient
�Estimated growth of 2.9% in 2011
�Annual estimated average growth of 2.4% from 2010 to 2015
Source : IFA, December 2010; (e) estimate
5
Global Production Capacity of Fertilizers
�Strong production recovery after 2009, increasing utilized capacity
Source: IFANote 1 – The total volume contemplates industrial us e fertilizers
6
Global Fertilizer Producers - 2009
Phosphate Rock (P)
Potassium Chloride (K)
Source : ANDA / IFA
Ammonia (N)
Americas14.8%
Africa2.6%
Asia
56.5%
Other Continents
26.1%Americas
21.5%
Africa
21.0%
Asia
49.0%
Other Cont.
8.4%
Americas
31.1%Asia
22.9%
Europe
46.0%
7
Investments in Raw Material Production
Nitrogen (N) Phosphorus (P) Potassium (K)
World Reserves → Available Limited Limited
Investments in new
capacities →US$ 1.4 billion per
1 million tons of ammonia
3 years
US$ 1.6 billion per
1 million tons of P2O5(i)
3 - 4 years
US$ 1.6 billion per 1
million tons of KCL(ii) 5 -
7 years
Producing Countries →~ 75 countries (ammonia
basis) 1st China; 2nd Russia;
3rd India; 4th USA
~ 100 countries (P2O5
basis) 1st China; 2nd USA;
3rd Morocco; 4th Russia
12 countries (KCl basis)
1st Canada; 2nd Russia;
3rd Belarus; 4th Germany
Market
Characteristics → RegionalGlobal
Global Players
Global
few Global Players
Brazilian Position →1% of World's Production 3%
of World's Consumption
4% of World's Production 9%
of World's Consumption
1% of World's Production 14%
of World's Consumption
Announced
Investments →China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
Egypt, Brazil and Iran
China, Brazil, Morocco,
Saudi Arabia and Peru
Canada, Argentine, Russia,
China, Israel and Jordan
(i) includes phosphate rock, sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid and MAP /DAP
(ii) conventional mining
Source: IFA / ANDA / Potash Corp / BMO - APRIL/2009
Note:(1) In nutrient consumption/ Source: IFA/ANDA8
Global Markets and CAGR of Largest Markets - 2010
Global Largest Fertilizer Markets (1) CAGR of Largest Markets
�Brazil is the world’s 4th largest market and is growing above the global average
51.1
28.0
20.2
10.1 4.9 3.8 3.1 2.9
47.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Volume 2010
mm
to
ns
29.8%
16.3%
11.8%
5.9%
2.9% 2.2% 1.8%1.7%
27.7%
Market Share 2010
INDIA USA BRAZIL
3.5%
4.6%
0.4%
51.1
28.0
20.2
10.1
3.2
18.6
12.0
27
6.2%
9
Brazilian Fertilizers Industry
10
Evolution of Brazilian Industry and Heringer
Source: Anda / Heringer
CAGR 1995-2010
Heringer CAGR17.5%
Industry CAGR 5.6%
Heringer’s 2010 Market Share = 18.5%
10.812.2
13.814.6
13.6
16.3 17.0
19.1
22.8 22.8
20.221.0
24.6
22.4 22.4
24.5
0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.53.3 3.2 3.9 4.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Brazilian Market Heringer
11
Sustainability and Fertilizers in Brazil
�Planted area CAGR (1969 to 2009) of 2%, versus agricultural production CAGR of 5%
�Fertilizer consumption CAGR of 7% shows the contribution of this input to environmental preservation,
leading to an important gain in agricultural productivity
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Base: 1969/70 Marketing Year = 100
PLANTED AREA/ha
AGRI PRODUCTION
FERTILIZERS
*Planted area in hectares of soybean, corn, beans (grain), paddy rice, wheat (grain), herbaceous cotton, sorghum (grain), oats (grain), barley (grains), triticale (grain), sunflower (grain), rye (grain).
*Agricultural production of following crops: soybean, corn, beans (grain), paddy rice, wheat (grain), herbaceous cotton (seed), sorghum (grain), oats (grain), barley (grain), triticale (grain), sunflower (grain), rye (grain).
Source: Agroconsult
12
Brazil - Total and Arable Land
Source: IBGE, CONAB, MAPA , GV Agro
% Total area % Arable area
Amazon Rainforest 350 41.1%
Legal Reserve 58 6.8%
Cities, Lakes, Rivers & Waterlogged areas 20 2.4%
Other Uses 78 9.2%
Reforestation 5 0.6%
Sub-total 511 60.0%
Pasture 172 20.2% 50.6%
Annual and Permanent Crops 72 8.5% 21.2%
Area Available for Agriculture 96 11.3% 28.2%
Sub-total 340 40.0% 100.0%
Total Brazil 851 100.0%
Regional Distribution - millions of ha
13
Brazilian Fertilizer Production Chain
�Segmentation of the production and distribution chain
�In 2010, Brazil imported 62% of the fertilizer it consumed
Mineral Extraction
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
(N)
PhosphateRock
(P)
Potassium
(K)
Petrobras
Vale Fert.Copebras Galvani
Vale Fert.
Urea /
NitrateMAP / DAP TSP
Vale Fert.
Petrobras
Copebras
Vale Fert.
Copebras
Timac
Vale Fert.
Yara
NPKMixture
Producers
Mixers and
Distributors
(NPK)
Heringer Bunge
MosaicYara
Fertipar
ADMOther
N
SSP
Vale Fert. Copebras
Galvani
HeringerYara
TimacBunge
CibrafertilFospar
Profertil
P K
Potassium
Chloride
Vale Fert.
Basic and Intermediate Fertilizer Producers
14
�Heringer reached a 18.5% market share in 2010
Major Players in NPK Market
Source: Heringer estimates
20101995
18.5%
6 companies:
80%
Approx. 100 companies:
20%
30%
Takenaka
4%
Manah
10%
IAP
7%
Serrana
11%
Trevo
14%
Fertibras
3%
Solorico
7%
Fertiza
4%6%
4%
COPAS
HERINGER
BUNGE 32%
MOSAIC
11%YARA
17%
OTHERS
15
Brazil’s Agricultural Calendar
�Production cycle of the five crops with the highest fertilizer consumption in Brazil
CROPS
Harvest Winter Crop Harvest
Planting
Planting/Coverage
Harvest
Planting/Coverage
Northeast Harvest
Planting
Sugarcane Planting 12-Month Sys.
Soybean
Sugarcane
Coffee
FEBJAN JULJUNMAR DECNOVOCTSEPTAUGMAYAPR
Center-South Harvest
Harvest
Winter Crop Planting
Sugarcane Planting 18-Month System
Corn
Winter Crop Planting / Coverage
Northeast
Harvest
Cotton
(Mato
Grosso)
Planting
Harvest Winter Crop Harvest
16
Brazil: Important Agribusiness Player
Brazil as a % of Global Exports - 2010/11
�Brazil is one of the largest producers/exporters of agricultural products and has one of the lowest
production costs in the world
Brazil as a % of Global Production - 2010/11
Orange Juice
Coffee (bag)
Soybean (grain)
Sugar Cotton CornOrange Juice
Coffee (bag)
Soybean (grain)
Sugar Cotton Corn
1ST
1ST
1ST
2ND
5TH 3RD
1ST
1ST
1ST2ND
5TH 3RD
Source: USDA/ Agroconsult – in metric tons
17
The Company
18
Fertilizer Deliveries by Crop
�Heringer offers solutions for many different crops, minimizing the volatility associated with
local climates and other specific conditions, such as price cyclicality, pests and disease
Source: LSPA – IBGE/CEPE AGRO and ANDA
Heringer - 2010Brazilian Market - 2010
Sugarcane
14%
Other
27%
Reforest.
3%
Coffee
6%
Corn
16%
Soybean
34%
Sugarcane
20%
Other
22%
Reforest.
6%
Coffee
17%
Corn
17%Soybean
18%
Specialty Products
19
� Strong growth in Specialty Products’ share of overall sales in 2Q11 and 1H11
�Specialty products help boost margins and improve customer loyalty with their high quality and efficiency
�One of the largest portfolios of specialty products on the market (31 products)
Share of Specialty Products Specialty Products Line
Sales Volume
20
Sales by Segment and Number of Clients - 2010
�Focus on the retail segment is important for increasing profitability and mitigating risks
�47,000 clients in the last 12 months
Individuals/Companies = 86% of volume
Sales by Segment Number of Clients
2008 2009 2010
34,997
45,190 44,958Individuals
42%
Companies
44%
Cooperatives
8%Resale
6%
Mixing Units and Production Capacity
� 19 units located in the main consumer
market, with installed mixing capacity of
5.7 million metric tons
�1 Sulfuric Acid and Single Super
Phosphate (SSP) Unit
21
1.9%
12.2%
29.7%28.6%
27.6%
Total deliveries in Brazil by region - 2010
North Northwest Midwest Southeast South
NORTH
Rosário do Catete
Camaçari
NORTHEAST
Legend
Mixing Units
SSP Unit
MIDWEST-
Rondonópolis Anápolis
Dourados
Rio Verde
SOUTH
Paranaguá
Porto Alegre
Bebedouro
Ourinhos
ManhuaçuTrês Corações
Uberaba
Viana
Paulínia
Iguatama
SOUTHEAST
Rio Grande
São João do
Manhuaçu
Catalão
22
Financial Highlights
�EBITDA in 2010 was the highest in Heringer’s history
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Volume (million metric tons) 2.5 3.3 3.2 3.9 4.5
Net Revenue (R$ thousand) 1,435,969 2,260,839 3,524,559 3,192,314 3,521,473
EBITDA (R$ thousand) 58,606 83,266 90,113 38,765 212,331
EBITDA Margin 4.1% 3.7% 2.6% 1.2% 6.0%
1H11 Income Statements (R$ Thousand)
� Net Revenue growth due to higher sales volume and prices
� Decrease in SG&A expenses as a percentage of Net Revenue due to scale gains
�Decrease in net financial expenses due to foreign exchange variation
23
Strong recovery in gross margin, net margin and EBITDA margin in 1H11
1H11 % NR 1H10 % NR ∆ % 1H11/10
Net Revenue 1.608.670 100,0% 1.185.241 100,0% 35,7%
COGS (1.414.256) -87,9% (1.113.748) -94,0% 27,0%
Gross Profit 194.414 12,1% 71.493 6,0% 171,9%
Freight and Commissions (87.524) -5,4% (67.921) -5,7% 28,9%
SG&A (71.690) -4,5% (62.288) -5,3% 15,1%
EBITDA 65.086 4,0% (27.216) -2,3%
Net Fin. Income / (Exp.) (28.683) -1,8% (56.964) -4,8% -49,6%
Net Income 9.758 0,6% (67.713) -5,7%
24
2011 Outlook
25
Initiatives
• Development of new technologies for fertilizers
• Partnerships with academic institutes and research
center
• Closer relationship with clients and suppliers
• Focus and transparency in communication and
sustainability
2011 Outlook
�Average price of fertilizer raw materials higher than in 2010, but with trend of lower
volatility
�Positive scenario for agriculture commodities in 2011: profitability of rural producers,
with good barter ratio of agricultural products versus fertilizers
�Seasonality expected in the 1st half is 43% and 57% in the 2nd half of 2011
� Brazilian fertilizer market expected to grow by 6.0% to volume of 26.0 million metric
tons in 2011
�Grain output projected to increase in the 2010/11 season and 2011/2012 season
26
International Raw Material Prices
27
�Average prices of fertilizer raw materials higher th an in 2010
�Brazil is a Price Taker
�Barter ratios remain at favorable levels
Source: Heringer - Prices in USD
CFR* = cost and freight per ton
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
May/10 Jun/10 Jul/10 Aug/10 Sep/10 Oct/10 Nov/10 Dec/10 Jan/11 Feb/11 Mar/11 Apr/11 May/11 Jun/11 Jul/11
Uréia Sulfato de Amônio Nitrato de Amônio Super Fosfato Simples Super Fosfato Triplo Cloreto de Potássio DAP MAP
28
Agricultural commodities demand fundamentals
Source: USDA, August, 2011
Grains: Corn, Millet, Barley, Mixed Grains, Oat, Rice, Rye, Sorghum and Wheat
�Consumption adjusted to production
�Low inventory world levels of grains
�Per capita income from emerging markets increased strongly in the last years,
generating and inertial demand for food
�Population and urbanization growth in the world
23%24%
22%
26%
36%
30%
25%
32%
23%
19%
19%
18%
22%
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Grains World Production Grains World Consumption Final Inventories % Inventory / Use
Brazilian Fertilizer Market - Seasonality
Source: Anda / Heringer
2011E – Estimate 29
30
�Expected growth of 6% in 2011
Brazilian Fertilizer Market - Evolution and Expectations for 2011
Source: Anda / Heringer
2011E – Estimate
Agricultural Commodities - Prices
Fonte e projeção : Agroconsult/ R$/SC *= Preços em saca31
Soybean R$/bag (60kg/Paraná) Corn R$/bag (60kg/São Paulo)
Sugarcane R$/bag (50kg/São Paulo) Arabica Coffee R$/bag (60kg/Brazil)
Agricultural Commodities - International Prices: Recent Evolution
Soybean US$/bushel Corn US$/bushel
Sugar US$/pound Coffee US$/pound
32Source: CME Group
Barter Ratio of Agricultural Products vs. Fertilizers
33Source: Agroconsult/bg* = bags
Soybean Paraná (bag/60kg) Corn Paraná (bag/60kg)
Sugarcane São Paulo (tons) Coffee (Brazil)
33
Grain Production and Planted Area
� Expected growth of 4.6% in Brazil’s planted area in 2010/2011 marketing year
� Expected growth of 7.3% in Brazil’s grain production in 2010/11 marketing year
�2.6% increase in Brazil’s average grain yield in 2010/2011 marketing year
Source: CONAB / Agroconsult/ * Agroconsult's Projection and Company's Estimate
Grains: corn, soybeans, rice, beans, sorghum, castor beans, cotton, sunflowers, barley, rye, oats, peanuts, wheat and triticale
Fertilizers: 2011 Estimate 34
Heringer’s Ownership Breakdown
�FHER3 is one of the 100 most liquid stocks on the BOVESPA and is a component of the SMLL, ITAG, INDX, IGC,
IGCT, IMAT and IBRA stock indexes
� The free-float registered 86 foreign investors and 2,224 Brazilian investors
�FHER3 performance of -7.6% versus -23% of Bovespa – Average daily trading volume of R$ 830,172
Ownership Breakdown and Free-Float Foreign and Brazilian Investors in Free-Float
35
www.heringer.com.br/[email protected]
Wilson Rio Mardonado
Vinicius Alves de Lima
Laís Cristina de Sá Bortolozzo
Investor RelationsPhone: +55 19 3322-2294