has the economic downturn influenced school-leaver destinations? presentation to the ceet annual...
TRANSCRIPT
Has the economic downturn influenced school-leaver destinations?
Presentation to the CEET Annual Conference30 October 2009
Trish Corrie (DEECD) & Phillip McKenzie (ACER)
Table 1: Unemployment rate by age group, Victoria, Sept 2008 to Sept 2009 (%)
Age group
Sept 2008
Dec 2008
March2009
June 2009
Sept 2009
15-64 4.4 4.5 5.4 5.9 5.9
15-19 11.9 13.3 18.3 17.8 19.7Source: ABS
2
Youth labour market changes
• Teenage unemployment has risen more sharply than general unemployment
• Broadly consistent with changes in youth education and employment patterns in previous downturns
• Early school leavers likely to be most at risk• Need to monitor changes, feed information back
to education providers, & target support to those at risk
3
4
On Track is….
• An annual Victorian post-school destination survey for Year 12 completers and early leavers
• Incoming Bracks Government initiative to provide destination information to schools, parents and students
• First survey 2003
5
On Track Objectives
In addition to the information commitment:• Provide data on trends of post-school
destinations over time• Provide evidence of relationships between
curriculum, location, gender, achievement and SES, and destinations
• Design longitudinal studies to better understand relationships
• Offer a referral service to those at risk
6
Main features
• In scope? • Consent process• Data aids Government schools to set transition
targets for specific cohorts and measure progress towards targets
• And DEECD corporate performance for Year 12 and early leaver transitions to education, training or full time employment is measured using On Track data
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Methodology • Annual Year 12 and early leaver sample subject to bias
check • Telephone surveys conducted in April and May each year
preceded by Victoria wide FM radio campaign to remind consenting students to participate when called. Parents as proxies may give current destination only
• Questionnaire development involves DEECD policy units each year
• Questionnaire pilot tested and ongoing briefings while in the field
Table 2: Respondents & response rates
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Consented Interviewed Response Rate
Year 12 or equivalent completers
2009 44 968 36 022 80.1%
2008 43 607 33 249 76.2%
Early leavers
2009 8 857 4 676 52.8%
2008 8 866 4 470 53.5%
Figure 1: Destinations of Year 12 completersVictoria: 2008 and 2009
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44.1
14.4
3.75.8
4.1
11.5 12.6
3.8
45.9
14.3
3.8 4.73.3
9.0
13.8
5.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
University VET Cert IV+ VET entry-level
Apprentice Trainee Working full-time
Working part-time
Looking for work
Per c
ent o
f Yea
r 12
com
plet
ers
2008 2009
Year 12 completers and the current economic situation
• ‘How has the current economic situation influenced your decisions about what to do after leaving school?’
• 22.4% said that it has had an influence on their decisions
• In what ways? …
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Figure 3: Year 12 completers and the current economic situation
11
17.4
15.013.9 13.4
9.9
7.3 6.77.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Job/hours more
important
Can't find a job
Chosen different
career path
Considering different
career path
Encouraged me to
consider study
Now looking at options
Worried about jobs
Can't say
Per c
ent o
f tho
se in
fluen
ced
by cu
rren
t eco
nom
ic si
tuati
on
Figure 2: Destinations of Year 12 completersDeferrals: Victoria (2008 and 2009)
12
*Not in the labour force, education or training. This group is not included in other destination statistics. In 2008 seven deferrals were undertaking an apprenticeship or traineeship; they are not included here.
45.5
40.7
8.35.5
35.4
49.3
11.0
4.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Employed full-time Employed part-time Looking for work NILFET*
Per c
ent o
f def
erra
ls
2008 2009
Figure 4: Destinations of early leaversVictoria: 2008 and 2009
13
3.6
11.0
33.2
7.3
15.4 15.514.0
5.0
12.5
30.3
5.5
13.015.0
18.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
VET Cert IV+ VET entry-level Apprentice Trainee Employed full-time
Employed part-time
Looking for work
Per c
ent o
f ear
ly le
aver
s
2008 2009
Early leavers and the current economic situation
• ‘How has the current economic situation influenced your decisions about what to do after leaving school?’
• 23.0% said that it has had an influence on their decisions.
• In what ways? …
14
Figure 5: Early leavers and the current economic situation (Victoria)
15
21.119.4
13.3
10.7
7.9 7.9
5.84.7 4.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Job/hours more
important
Can't find a job Can't say Chosen different
career path
Considering different
career path
Decided to work before
study
Apprenticeship hard to find
Encouraged me to consider
study
Other
Per c
ent o
f tho
se in
fluen
ced
by cu
rren
t eco
nom
ic si
tuati
on
Conclusions
• Impact evident in increased education participation, decreased apprenticeships & traineeships, decreased employment, increased unemployment
• Increase in deferrals of tertiary education, but reduced capacity to finance entry
• Impact more marked for early leavers than completers
• Implications for preparing leavers and early intervention for those at-risk
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On Track queries and publication details
Please direct questions or comment to:Dr Trish CorrieOn Track Project Managert: 03.9637.2802e: [email protected]
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All On Track publications are available at:http://www.education.vic.gov.au/sensecyouth/ontrack