Handicapping

102

Thoroughbred Racing

Key Elements

Class. Class is difficult to define, but it is unmistakable at the racetrack. Horses seem to sort themselves into competitive levels.

“All things being equal class prevails”

Affirmed 1978

Class In Action

Affirmed Digs Down

Repeat Performance

Tiznow

2000 V. Causeway

2001 V. Sakee

Key Elements

Pace: "Pace makes the race." This old racing expression points to another element to consider when placing your bets -- the pace of the race. A horse generally can't have it both ways. That is, he can't run extremely fast early and still have enough left in reserve to run fast late in the race. A fast pace generally means that the horses on the front will tire out and thus help the runners that are closing ground.

6 Furlong Pace

Splits Fast Average Slow

1/4 :22 1/5 :22 4/5 :23 1/5

1/2 :44 2/5 :45 1/5 :46 2/5

5/8 :57 1/5 :58 2/5 :59 3/5

Final 1:10 1:10 1:10

Key Elements

• Trainers and jockeys.It's always wise to take into account the human factor. Some trainers do well with 2-year-olds while others are particularly adept with horses shipping in from long distances. Some jockeys seem to ride better on the front end, and others are better known for their come-from-behind style. A good idea is to check the standings, which show the leading trainers and jockeys at the meeting.

Trainer Angles & Stats

Located at the bottom of the DRF PPs under the workouts.

Positive Examples:

Bruce Levine 27% wins in claiming races

Anthony Dutrow 35% wins 2nd off claim

Barclay Tagg 28% wins sprint to route

Kiaran Mclaughlin 33% wins Route to Sprint

Chris Englehart 28% wins 2nd off 180 day layoff

Jockey Strengths

John Velazquez - Excellent judge of pace

Javier Castellano - Much better on turf

Edgar Prado - Makes the right move

Fernando Jara - Patient rider, good late

CC Lopez - Superb on front end

Eibar Coa - Strong stretch rider

Jerry Bailey - The best at saving ground

Key Elements Changes in equipment.Blinkers are used on horses

to limit their vision and to prevent them from swerving from objects or other horses. It's worth noting changes in blinkers - a horse wearing them for the first time (or for the first time in a number of starts) or racing without them for the first time. Mud calks are used for off tracks. Calks, pointed extensions or cleats on a horseshoe, are designed to prevent a horse from slipping. Certain other equipment worn by the horses is noted in the past performances.

NoBizLikeShowBiz wins Wood blinkered April 7, 2007

Key Elements

• Trip.It is important for a bettor to watch his horse during the running of the race and again on the replays after the race to observe what kind of trip he had. Was the horse squeezed back at the start, or carried wide on the turn, or blocked at the quarter pole? A horse who loses a race because of a troubled trip might be a good bet in his next start. Usually trouble encountered by a horse in a race is shown in the past performance lines.

*Watch Race Replays…it can payoff!

Key Elements

• Breeding.Breeding is an inexact science, but a careful study of pedigrees can enhance a bettor's chances at the races. Some horses are bred for speed, others have inherited stamina from their sires and dams and are able to run long distances and certain horses are bred for grass racing.

Breeding Definitions

Sire - Father

Dam - Mother

Dam Sire - Maternal Grand Sire

Bottom Line - Female Family (pedigree)

1/2 Brother/Sister - share same dam

Full Brother/sister - share both parents

Stud Fee - Price to breed your dam to a stallion

1 A.P. INDY (1989, Seattle Slew), Lane's End, KY $300,000 $2,377,219

2 ROYAL ACADEMY (1987, Nijinsky II), Ashford Stud, KY $15,000 $2,372,695

3 PLEASANT TAP (1987, Pleasant Colony), Lane's End, KY $15,000 $2,118,868

4 DISTORTED HUMOR (1993, Forty Niner), WinStar Farm, KY $225,000 $1,947,374

5 SILVER DEPUTY (1985, Deputy Minister), Brookdale Farm, KY $30,000 $1,622,258

6 PATTON(1991, Lord At War), Castle Rock Farm, PA $2,500 $1,504,152

7 JOHANNESBURG (1999, Hennessy), Ashford Stud, KY $65,000 $1,502,330

8 LEMON DROP KID (1996, Kingmambo), Lane's End, KY $20,000 $1,445,493

9 GIANT'S CAUSEWAY (1997, Storm Cat), Ashford Stud, KY N/A $1,440,649

10 SLEW CITY SLEW (1984, Seattle Slew), Airdrie Stud, KY $6,000 $1,358,328

11 LANGFUHR (1992, Danzig), Lane's End, KY $25,000 $1,343,038

12 THUNDER GULCH (1992, Gulch), Ashford Stud, KY $30,000 $1,308,108

13 STORMY ATLANTIC (1994, Storm Cat), Hill 'n' Dale Farms, KY $30,000 $1,289,173

14 GRAND SLAM (1995, Gone West), Ashford Stud, KY $35,000 $1,255,232

15 TALE OF THE CAT (1994, Storm Cat), Ashford Stud, KY $37,500 $1,232,397

16 AWESOME AGAIN (1994, Deputy Minister), Adena Springs Kentucky $150,000 $1,221,399

17 MARIA'S MON (1993, Wavering Monarch), Pin Oak Stud, KY $60,000 $1,217,887

18 SMART STRIKE (1992, Mr. Prospector), Lane's End, KY $75,000 $1,199,987

19 UNBRIDLED'S SONG (1993, Unbridled), Taylor Made Stallions, KY $200,000 $1,186,610

20 YES IT'S TRUE (1996, Is It True), Three Chim

Leading Sires 2007, The Blood Horse

Key Elements• Condition. It is defined as the fitness of a

thoroughbred - how prepared he is to run a particular race. The dates of the horse's most recent workouts and races and the probable effects of this activity on his current condition are highly important. If a horse is racing for the first time in a month or so, a steady pattern of workouts is a good indication of fitness.

*Beware the short horse!

Work Out Times & Fitness

Distance Breezing Handily

3 Furlongs :36 :35

4 Furlongs :49 :47.2

5 Furlongs 1:01 :59.3

6 Furlongs 1:14 1:12

Work out times are less important than frequency. A fit horse will usually work every 7 - 10 days. Workouts mean less with claiming horses.

Racing Surfaces

Traditional Dirt - Most races in North America are conducted on this surface, but that is changing

Characteristics - composition varies greatly according to geography, tends to favor horses with early speed, tends to be more speed favoring when wet

New York Tracks: Aqueduct, Belmont, Saratoga, and Finger Lakes all race on dirt

Racing Surfaces

Turf - Preferred racing surface around the world. It is seasonal in North America.

Characteristics: Performance is very much associated with breeding, results on turf tend to be more consistent from venue to venue, the condition of the turf; firm,good, yielding, and soft is a key handicapping factor.

Racing Surfaces

Synthetic (Poly Track, All Weather) - The future of racing surfaces. Much safer than traditional dirt surface. All California tracks must convert to this surface by 2008. Keeneland and Turfway Park in Kentucky, and Woodbine in Toronto have installed synthetic surfaces. Many European venues race on these surfaces.

Synthetic Surface

DRF has begun to report records on Synthetic surfaces. Early returns suggest that turf horses and late running dirt horses do well on synthetic surfaces. The advantage of speed seems to be at least somewhat mitigated by this surface. This is the biggest change in racing since medication rules were relaxed!

Do your homework !

www.drf.comwww.brisnet.com

www.equidaily.comwww.nycotb.com

www.racereplays.comwww.cdotb.comwww.ntra.com

www.equibase.comwww.nyra.com