habit-change_4_3_5+4_6_1+4_6_2_report sensitivity+potential_impact_maps

HABIT-CHANGE

Sensitivity and Potential Impact Maps Combined Report on 4.3.5, 4.6.1 and 4.6.2 10/2012

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF

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Output Number: 4.3.5, 4.6.1 and 4.6.2 Date: 04.07.2012

Title: Potential Impact Maps

Author: UniV, TUB

Project: HABIT-CHANGE Adaptive management of climate-induced changes of habitat diversity in protected areas

Programme: CENTRAL EUROPE Project Number:

2CE168P3

Start date: 3/2010 End date: 2/2013

Lead Partner: Leibniz Institute of Ecological and Regional Development (IOER), Germany

Project Partner: University of Vienna, Austria National Academy of Sciences, Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth,

Ukraine Thuringian State Institute for Forestry, Game and Fishery, Germany Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany Technische Universitt Berlin, Germany Balaton Uplands National Park Directorate, Hungary Szent Istvan University, Hungary Biebrza National Park, Poland Environmental Protection Institute, Poland Triglav National Park, Slovenia University of Bucharest, Romania Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria Danube Delta National Institute for Research and Development, Romania SOLINE Pridelava soli d.o.o., Slovenia University of Maribor, Slovenia European Academy Bolzano, Italy

Contact: Marco Neubert, [email protected], +49 351 4679-274 Sven Rannow, [email protected], +49 351 463-42359

Further information

www.habit-change.eu

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Contents

1. Introduction 5

2. Methods 7 2.1. Sensitivity 7

2.1.1. Regional expert knowledge 7

2.1.2. Indicator values 8

2.2. Exposure 9

2.3. Potential Impacts 11

3. Results 13 3.1. Biebrza National Park, Poland 14

3.1.1. Sensitivity 15

3.1.2. Exposure 18

3.1.3. Potential Impacts 19

3.2. Flusslandschaft Elbe - Brandenburg Biosphere Reserve, Germany 24


3.2.2. Exposure 27


3.3. Vessertal - Thuringian Forest Biosphere Reserve, Germany 30


3.3.2. Exposure 36


3.4. Natural Park Bucegi, Romania 43


3.4.2. Exposure 47


3.5. Balaton Uplands National Park, Hungary 53


3.5.2. Exposure 57


3.6. Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania 63


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3.6.2. Exposure 69


3.7. Koros-Maros National Park, Hungary 77


3.7.2. Exposure 81


3.8. Lake Neusiedl / Fert - Hansag National Park, Austria / Hungary 86


3.8.2. Exposure 93


3.9. Seovlje Salina Nature Park ,Slovenia 100


3.9.2. Exposure 101


3.10. Rieserferner - Ahrn Nature Park, Italia 103


3.10.2. Exposure 108


3.11. Triglav National Park, Slovenia 114


3.11.2. Exposure 119


4. Conclusion 124

5. References 125

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1. Introduction

Climate change impacts biota from an individual, population, species and community level to whole ecosystems or biogeographic regions. Their current distribution is a result of abiotic factors like climate conditions, topography, soil types or disturbance regimes and biotic factors like competition. This also means, that the current plant community composition of a habitat reflects the ecological envelope of the habitat. Plant species or populations only can persist within their climatic envelope for which they are evolutionary and physiologically adapted. If abiotic factors like regional climate conditions are changing, the individuals can be more prone to catastrophic disturbances like disease, insects or fires (Bergengren et al. 2011). In parts of the world, including Europe, the species distribution is already influenced by climate change (Parmesan and Yohe 2003). Rising temperatures led to an increase in thermophilic plant species (Bakkenes et al. 2006). Especially in alpine areas, the more warm-adapted species became more frequent and the more cold-adapted plants were declining (Gottfried et al. 2012). This also shows that the impact of climate change on plant species communities varies between biogeographical regions (Figure 1) as stated by the EEA for the key past and projected impacts of climate change and effects (2010): Alpine areas suffer from high temperature increase, whereas the lowlands of Central and Eastern Europe (incorporating the Continental, Pannonian and Steppic Regions) have to face more temperature extremes and less summer precipitation.

Figure 1: The biogeographical regions Europe

(after EEA 2009)

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In HABIT-CHANGE the assessment of climate-induced impacts on habitats makes use of existing frameworks (e.g. Rannow et al. 2010; Renetzeder et al. 2010) to provide information about priorities for the climate change adapted management process in the protected areas. The framework consists of sensitivity and exposure, which are both leading to climate-induced impacts on habitats. Existing literature about projected species compositions (e.g. Normand et al. 2007; Bakkenes et al. 2006; Milad et al. 2011), ecological envelope (Ellenberg 1992; Landolt and Bumler 2010; Borhidi 1995) and expert knowledge systems (Petermann et al. 2007) are used to assess the sensitivity of habitat types (also see Output 4.2.1), whereas results from climate scenarios are used to describe the magnitude of the expected exposure to climate change.

Figure 2: Framework for the assessment (Source: own preparation, 2012)

The framework for the assessment (Figure 2) follows the concept defined by the IPCC (2001): Sensitivity is defined as the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g. change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g. damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise). The term exposure specifies the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations. Potential impacts describe the consequences of climate change on natural and human systems [] that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adaption.

Furthermore, in the application of the assessment framework, the focus particularly was set on

I. The assessment: simple approach which is locally valid and can be transferred to other biogeographical regions;

II. The traceability: transfer expert-knowledge into values based on defined criteria; III. The scale: localized analysis for habitats within an investigation area and regionalized

statement for a biogeographical region.

This report combines the Output for the Sensitivity maps (4.3.5, for that see Chapter Methods and Results entitled Sensitivity) and the outputs related to Potential Impact maps (4.6.1 and 4.6.2, for those see Chapters entitled Exposure and Potential Impacts).

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2. Methods

2.1. Sensitivity

In HABIT-CHANGE the sensitivity of a habitat is considered a result of its characteristics and existing or future pressures. The characteristics of habitats are the results of the effective abiotic factors like climate conditions, topography, soil type or disturbance regimes and biotic factors like species distributions, competition or regeneration rates. These characteristics describe the ecological envelope of the habitats. However, existing non-climatic pressures like land use changes modify the resilience of habitats to climate change on the local level.

The sensitivity of habitats was assessed by two approaches (Figure 3). One is focusing on regional expert knowledge and the other incorporates the ecological envelope of the habitat by assessing the current plant community composition.

Figure 3: Framework for the Sensitivity assessment (Source: own preparation, 2012)

2.1.1. Regional expert knowledge

The framework for the regional expert knowledge was based on the approach developed during the sensitivity assessment of Natura 2000 habitats in Germany by Petermann et al. (2007). The assessment was structured into seven sensitivity criteria (Table 1):

1. Average or reduced conservation status: habitats which are already marked as endangered are more sensitive;

2. Ability to regenerate: how long habitats need to recover after disturbance; 3. Horizontal distribution (range): species migrations due to climate change (e.g. from

Northwest to East) 4. Altitudinal distribution (range): species are forced to migrate upwards (e.g. summit areas) 5. Decrease of territorial coverage: remnants of habitats which are already endangered 6. Influence of neophytes: potential danger of neophytes due to new invasive species or

changing territorial coverage; 7. Dependency on groundwater and surface water in water balance: sensitivity of habitats

which depend on water to changing temperature and precipitation patterns

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Table 1: Sensitivity criteria for the regional expert knowledge assessment (Source: modified after Petermann et al. 2007)

Values CONS REGE HORI ALTI COVER NEOP WATER low 3 marginal no limits,

closed range planar collin

no change no invasives no

med 2 difficult no limit but fragmented

montane medium decrease

one invasive species

only for some forms

high 1 none, barely

limits or disjoint habitats

subalpine and alpine

strong decrease

more than one invasive species

for most forms

Abbreviations: CONS: Average or reduced conservation status; REGE: Ability to regenerate; HORI: Horizontal distribution; ALTI: Altitudinal distribution; COVER: Decrease of territorial coverage; NEOP: Influence of neophytes; WATER: Dependency on ground- and surface water in water balance;

For each habitat type each criteria was evaluated from the experts between the values low (1), medium (2), and high (3) sensitive. Afterwards, these values are summed and categorised to describe the overall sensitivity of a habitat type. Thereby, the categories were named similar to the evaluation values (Table 2). This evaluation was done from regional experts for the Alpine, Continental and Pannonian biogeographical region.

Table 2: Sensitivity categories (Source: modified after Petermann et al. 2007)

Sum Value Category > 14 3 high

14-16 2 medium < 16 1 low

2.1.2. Indicator values

The variability of the ecological envelope of habitats was assessed by indicator values which were derived from the characteristic species composition in the habitats. As above, the biogeographical regions define the type of plant indicator scheme used for the assessment (Table 3). This differentiation was made because indicator schemes are based on the plant species response to climatic (e.g. temperature) and edaphic (e.g. moisture) habitat parameters, which are varying between the biogeographical regions (Englisch and Karrer 2001). Following Ellenberg (1992), different authors adapted the ecological preference of plants for their region. Each scheme categorizes this ecological preference into ordinal scaled systems.

Table 3: Indicator schemes per biogeographical region (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Region Indicator scheme Ordinal scale New Scale Alpine Landolt et al. (2010) 1 5 (Temp., Moist.) 1 - 3 Continental Ellenberg (1992) 1 9 (Temp.); 1 12 (Moist.) 1 - 3 Pannonian Borhidi (1995) 1 9 (Temp.); 1 12 (Moist.) 1 - 3

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Temperature values as climatic parameter and moisture values as edaphic parameter were selected in the framework. The temperature describes the plants response to air temperature gradients during the vegetation period. Moisture values indicate the degree of soil moisture needed by the plant during the vegetation period. Since the approach should be locally valid and transferrable to other biogeographical regions, the indicator schemes were re-categorized into three values each (Table 4, Table 5). Thereafter, the categorized indicator values were used to calculate an overall indicator value based on the statistical median for each habitat type listed by the investigation area.

Table 4: Categories for the indicator temperature (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Scale Category Description 1 low Species from high elevations, sustainable of low air temperature during the growth

period 2 medium Species from the midlands, need average air temperature during the growth period 3 high Species from low elevations, need higher air temperature during the growth period

Table 5: Categories for the indicator moisture (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Scale Category Description 1 dry Species sustain low soil moisture during growth period 2 moist Species need average soil moisture during growth period 3 wet Species need high soil moisture during growth period

The frequency of the categorised indicator values per habitat, investigation area and biogeographical region was used in the sensitivity assessment. The proportion of the categories defined the main direction, therefore also the sensitivity of the habitat against changes in direction of the other category (Table 6). For instance, freshwater habitats are characterised in their moisture by moist to wet category and therefore are sensitive to drought periods.

Table 6: Example sensitivity assessment of the indicator values for three habitat types (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Habitat Dry Moist Wet PRESENT Sensitivity

Freshwater habitats 1 15 58 Moist/Wet > Dry

Grassland formations 72 196 24 Dry/Moist > Wet

Forests 14 174 43 Moist indifferent

2.2. Exposure

In HABIT-CHANGE exposure of a habitat is equivalent to the pressure "climate change". The changes can be represented as long-term changes in climate conditions, changes in the climate variability or changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events.

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Figure 4: Framework for the Exposure assessment (Source: own preparation, 2012)

The exposure was assessed (Figure 4) by comparing climatic conditions of today with information from meteorological observations from the past (period between the years 1971-2000) and climate change projections for the future (period between the years 2036-2065). Various exposure parameters are available when comparing climatic conditions from the past to the future. This framework selected the two exposure parameter corresponding most with the two plant indicators which describe the ecological envelope of a habitat. The mean temperature (C) indicates the changes in air temperature for each period and therefore can describe the indicator temperature. The climatic water balance (mm) combines precipitation and evapotranspiration and for that reason is one of the best parameter to explain the distribution of vegetation (Stephenson 1990). The climatic water balance indicates the changes in the water storage in the soil and therefore can be used to be compared with the indicator moisture.

Figure 5: Exposure Plots based on yearly ensemble data. Difference between periods (left), scaled Values (centre) and final exposure plot showing magnitude categories (right)

(Source: own preparation, 2012)

The exposure values were calculated as annual ensembles. These values represented the climatic conditions during the course of the year for the past and projected future date periods from above. Instead of the usage of the length of the vegetation period, the productive time was divided into

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three time segments, which are further referred to as 1/3, 2/3 and 3/3 of the vegetation period. The non-productive time segment is referred as dormant period. The exposure values therefore were calculated separately for each period during the course of the year. First, the difference in the exposure values between the past and future date period was obtained to get the amount of change from the past to the future. This led to difference values ranging around zero (e.g. see Figure 5, left with temperature range between 6 and -6 C). In a second step, the values were scaled by dividing them by the root mean square. Now, the values of the different exposure parameters (e.g. C or mm) showed the same range around zero, which means that all values at least range between 1 and -1 (Figure 5, centre). Finally, the scaled values were categorised into three magnitudes of exposure classes by making use of this fact. The statistical median was calculated for each period per parameter. Negative values were transformed into positive and afterwards assigned to one of the three magnitude classes (Table 7, Figure 5, right).

Table 7: Magnitude of Exposure categories (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Scaled Value Category Magnitude > 0.90 3 High 0.90 0.30 2 Med < 0.30 1 Low

2.3. Potential Impacts

In HABIT-CHANGE the term impact is considered as a change in the state of a system caused by pressures like climate change or land use. The focus is set on environmental impacts esp. on habitats. Climate impacts may be positive or negative. They can be the result of extreme events or more gradual changes in climate variables showing either direct or indirect effect. Examples for direct impacts are changed abiotic conditions (e.g., soil moisture) for protected habitats. Examples of indirect impacts are changes of agricultural practices due to increasing drought stress.

Figure 6: Framework for the Impact assessment (Source: own preparation, 2012)

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The framework for the assessment (Fig. 8.5) of climate-induced impacts on habitats results into overall impact magnitude values partitioned into the four time segment during the course of the year. The starting points in the impact assessment were the exposure values and the sensitivity derived from the indicator values. The parameter temperature (tas) and climatic water balance (cwb) were checked against the sensitivity of the indicators temperature and moisture. Subsequently, this resulted into the first impact values following the rules defined in Table 8for Temperature and Table 9 for Moisture.

Table 8: Transformation rules of the Temperature using the temperature Sensitivity (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Sensitivity Rule > high If habitat is sensitive against raising temperatures, then leave all positive exposure values. > low If habitat used to high temperatures and therefore sensitive against lower temperatures, then leave all

negative exposure values. ~ If habitat is indifferent because the frequency does not show any clear preference in one direction (ether

high or low), then remove all low values (1, -1).

Table 9: Transformation rules of the Climatic Water Balance using the moisture Sensitivity (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Sensitivity Rule > wet If habitat is sensitive against soil wetness, than remove all high positive values (3).

Extreme increase in the Climatic Water Balance; > dry If habitat is sensitive against droughts, then leave all negative values.

Climatic Water Balance is decreasing, which can cause water shortage; ~ If habitat is indifferent because the frequency does not show any clear preference in one direction (ether

dry or wet), then remove all low values (1, -1).

In the example shown in Table 10 and Table 11, for the Temperature, the Indicator rules stated that all negative values should be ignored from further analysis. The Moisture was indifferent and therefore all low exposure values were removed. The sensitivity values from the regional expert knowledge assessment were used to weight the first impact values. This was done by summarising the values from temperature, moisture and regional sensitivity for each of the four time segments (see Table 11for an example assessment). The sums were again categorised into three classes (Table 12) which resulted into the final impact magnitudes.

Table 10: Example of exposure values and their respective sensitivity derived from the indicator values of alpine grassland formations (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Grassland formations VEG1 VEG2 VEG3 DORM Indicator

Temperature -2 1 2 3 > High

Moisture 2 1 1 -3 Indifferent

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Table 11: Example of an impact assessment for alpine grassland formations (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Grassland formations VEG1 VEG2 VEG3 DORM

Temperature 1 2 3

Moisture 2 3

Regional sensitivity 2 2 2 2

SUM 4 3 4 8

Impact category 2 1 2 3

Table 12: Magnitude of Impact categories (Source: own preparation, 2012)

SUM Values

Impact Magnitude

6 3 High

3. Results

The following chapter shows the results produced for the outputs 4.3.5, 4.6.1 and 4.6.2 structured into the main investigation areas. The final sensitivity and potential impact maps are also in a higher resolution in the appendix of this report.

Table 13: Main Investigation areas assessed in this combined report (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Biogeo. region

Main Investigation Area Indicator Scheme

Tables Maps Appendix

Continental Biebrza National Park, Poland Polish Ellenberg yes yes A-3.1

Continental Flusslandschaft Elbe - Brandenburg Biosphere Reserve, Germany

Ellenberg yes no No

Continental Vessertal - Thuringian Forest Biosphere Reserve, Germany

Ellenberg yes yes A-3.3

Alpine Natural Park Bucegi, Romania Landolt yes yes A-3.4

Pannonian Balaton Uplands National Park, Hungary Borhidi yes yes A-3.5

Mixed Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania Ellenberg yes yes A-3.6

Pannonian Koros-Maros National Park, Hungary Borhidi yes yes A-3.7

Pannonian Lake Neusiedl / Fert - Hansag National Park, Austria / Hungary

Borhidi yes yes A-3.8

Mixed Seovlje Salina Nature Park ,Slovenia Ellenberg yes no No

Alpine Rieserferner - Ahrn Nature Park, Italia Landolt yes yes A-3.10

Alpine Triglav National Park, Slovenia Landolt yes yes A-3.11

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3.1. Biebrza National Park, Poland

Table 14: Habitat types (Code) assessed in the Investigation Area (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Code Description

2330 Inland dunes with open Corynephorus and Agrostis grasslands

3270 Rivers with muddy banks with Chenopodion rubri p.p. and Bidention p.p. vegetation

6410 Molinia meadows on calcareous, peaty or clayey-silt-laden soils (Molinion caeruleae)

6510 Lowland hay meadows (Alopecurus pratensis, Sanguisorba officinalis)

7110 * Active raised bogs

7140 Transition mires and quaking bogs

7230 Alkaline fens

9160 Sub-Atlantic and medio-European oak or oak-hornbeam forests of the Carpinion betuli

91D0 * Bog woodland

91E0 * Alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (Alno-Padion, Alnion incanae, Salicion albae)

9170 Galio-Carpinetum oak-hornbeam forests

Figure 7: Map of the habitat types


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3.1.1. Sensitivity

Table 15: Regional expert knowledge assessment (continental region) (Source: modified after Petermann et al. 2007)

Code CONS REGE HORI ALTI WATER COVER NEOP SUM Sensitivity 2330 3 2 2 1 1 3 2 14 2 3270 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 16 2 6410 3 2 1 2 3 3 1 15 2 6510 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 16 2 7110 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 18 3 7140 3 3 1 3 3 3 2 18 3 7230 3 3 1 3 3 3 1 17 3 9160 2 3 1 2 3 2 3 16 2 91D0 3 3 2 3 3 3 1 18 3 91E0 3 3 1 2 3 3 3 18 3 9170 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 12 1 Abbreviations: CONS: Average or reduced conservation status; REGE: Ability to regenerate; HORI: Horizontal distribution; ALTI: Altitudinal distribution; WATER: Dependency on ground- and surface water in water balance; COVER: Decrease of territorial coverage; NEOP: Influence of neophytes;

Figure 8: Regional sensitivity map

(Source: modified after Petermann et al. 2007)

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Table 16: Indicator values for Temperature (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Code Cnt.Spec Cnt.Indv Min Max Med TEMP Low Med High PRESENT Sensitivity

2330 37 37 1,25 3 2,25 2 1 35 1 Med Indifferent

3270 35 35 2 3 2,25 2 0 34 1 Med Indifferent

6410 57 57 1,25 3 2,25 2 1 55 1 Med Indifferent

6510 38 38 1,25 3 2,25 2 1 36 1 Med Indifferent

7110 20 19 2 2,5 2,25 2 0 19 0 Med Indifferent

7140 26 25 2 3 2,25 2 0 24 1 Med Indifferent

7230 20 19 2 2,5 2,25 2 0 19 0 Med Indifferent

9160 16 16 2,25 3 2,25 2 0 12 4 Med Indifferent

9170 18 18 1,25 3 2,125 2 4 11 3 Med Indifferent

91D0 31 31 1,25 3 2,25 2 1 28 2 Med Indifferent

91E0 28 28 2 3 2,25 2 0 26 2 Med indifferent

Figure 9: Indicator Map


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Table 17: Indicator values for Moisture (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Code Cnt.Spec Cnt.Indv Min Max Med MOIST Dry Moist Wet PRESENT Sensitivity

2330 37 37 1 3 3 3 4 11 22 Moist/Wet > Dry

3270 35 35 1,75 3 3 3 0 6 29 Moist/Wet > Dry

6410 57 57 1 3 2 2 2 41 14 Moist/Wet > Dry

6510 38 38 1 3 2 2 2 31 5 Moist Indifferent

7110 20 20 2 3 3 3 0 8 12 Moist/Wet > Dry

7140 26 26 2 3 3 3 0 10 16 Moist/Wet > Dry

7230 20 20 2 3 3 3 0 8 12 Moist/Wet > Dry

9160 16 16 1,25 3 1,5 2 1 14 1 Moist Indifferent

9170 18 18 1 3 1,5 2 6 11 1 Dry/Moist > Wet

91D0 31 31 1,5 3 2,5 3 0 17 14 Moist/Wet > Dry

91E0 28 28 1,5 3 2,5 3 0 18 10 Moist/Wet > Dry



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3.1.2. Exposure

Figure 11: Ensemble plots showing exposure per vegetation periods


Table 18: Exposure values per vegetation periods (Source: own preparation, 2012)

CWB TAS TASMIN TASMAX PRSUM DRYDAYS

Median Median Median Median Median Median

VEG 1/3 25.42 -1.91 -0.31 -1.14 18.28 4

VEG 2/3 18.2 -0.22 1.37 0.89 26.75 5

VEG 3/3 19.15 0.63 0.75 0.21 24.56 5.5

DORM -23.37 2.3 1.55 1 -33.93 -19

Scaled Median Scaled Median Scaled Median Scaled Median Scaled Median Scaled Median

VEG 1/3 0.53 -0.92 -0.21 -0.73 0.37 0.32

VEG 2/3 0.38 -0.11 0.92 0.57 0.54 0.4

VEG 3/3 0.4 0.31 0.5 0.13 0.49 0.44

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DORM -0.49 1.11 1.04 0.64 -0.68 -1.54

Magnitude Magnitude Magnitude Magnitude Magnitude Magnitude

VEG 1/3 2 -3 -1 -2 2 2

VEG 2/3 2 -1 3 2 2 2

VEG 3/3 2 2 2 1 2 2

DORM -2 3 3 2 -2 -3

Abbreviations: CWB Climatic water balance; TAS Temperature mean; TASMIN Temp. min.; TASMAX Temp. max.; PRSUM Mean precipitation; DRYDAYS No. of consecutive dry days.

3.1.3. Potential Impacts

Table 19: Impact calculation table (Source: own preparation, 2012)

CWB Vegetation Periods TAS per Vegetation Periods Sum

Code Sensitivity 1/3 2/3 3/3 D Ind. TEMP 1/3 2/3 3/3 D Ind. MOIST 1/3 2/3 3/3 D

2330 2 2 2 2 2 Indifferent 7 5 4 4

3270 2 2 2 2 2 Indifferent 3 1 > Dry 7 5 4 4

6410 2 2 2 2 2 Indifferent 3 1 > Dry 7 5 4 4

6510 2 2 2 2 2 Indifferent 3 2 3 ~ 7 4 6 7

7110 3 2 2 2 2 Indifferent 3 1 > Dry 8 6 5 5

7140 3 2 2 2 2 Indifferent 3 1 > Dry 8 6 5 5

7230 3 2 2 2 2 Indifferent 3 1 > Dry 8 6 5 5

9160 2 2 2 2 2 Indifferent 3 2 3 ~ 7 4 6 7

91D0 3 2 2 2 2 Indifferent 3 1 2 > Wet 8 6 7 5

91E0 3 2 2 2 2 Indifferent 3 1 > Dry 8 6 5 5

9170 1 2 2 2 2 Indifferent 3 1 > Dry 6 4 3 3

Table 20: Potential impact magnitudes (Source: own preparation, 2012)

Impact

Code 1/3 2/3 3/3 D

2330 3 2 2 2

3270 3 2 2 2

6410 3 2 2 2

6510 3 2 2 3

7110 3 2 2 2

7140 3 2 2 2

7230 3 2 2 2

9160 3 2 2 3

91D0 3 2 3 2

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91E0 3 2 2 2

9170 2 2 1 1

Figure 12: Potential Impact Map (Vegetation Period 1/3) (Source: own preparation, 2012)

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Figure 15: Potential Impact Map (Vegetation Period D) (Source: own preparation, 2012)

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3.2. Flusslandschaft Elbe - Brandenburg Biosphere Reserve, Germany


Code Description

2310 Dry sand heaths with Calluna and Genista

2330 Inland dunes with open Corynephorus and Agrostis grasslands

3130 Oligotrophic to mesotrophic standing waters with vegetation of the Littorelletea uniflorae and/or of the Isoto-Nanojuncetea

3260 Water courses of plain to montane levels with the Ranunculion fluitantis and Callitricho-Batrachion vegetation

4010 Northern Atlantic wet heaths with Erica tetralix

6210 Semi-natural dry grasslands and scrubland facies on calcareous substrates (Festuco-Brometalia) (* important orchid sites)

6230 * Species-rich Nardus grasslands, on silicious substrates in mountain areas (and submountain areas in Continental Europe)


6430 Hydrophilous tall herb fringe communities of plains and of the montane to alpine levels

6440 Alluvial meadows of river valleys of the Cnidion dubii



7210 * Calcareous fens with Cladium mariscus and species of the Caricion davallianae

7230 Alkaline fens

9110 Luzulo-Fagetum beech forests

9130 Asperulo-Fagetum beech forests

9160 Sub-Atlantic and medio-European oak or oak-hornbeam forests of the Carpinion betuli

9190 Old acidophilous oak woods with Quercus robur on sandy plains

91D0 * Bog woodland


91F0 Riparian mixed forests of Quercus robur, Ulmus laevis and Ulmus minor, Fraxinus excelsior or Fraxinus angustifolia, along the great rivers (Ulmenion minoris)

3.2.1. Sensitivity


Code CONS REGE HORI ALTI WATER COVER NEOP SUM Sensitivity

2310 2 2 1 2 1 2 3 13 1

2330 2 3 1 2 1 2 3 14 2

3130 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 17 3

3260 3 3 2 1 3 3 2 17 3

4010 3 3 1 3 3 2 3 18 3

6210 3 3 2 3 1 3 2 17 3

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6230 2 3 2 2 2 1 3 15 2

6410 2 3 2 1 3 1 3 15 2

6430 2 2 3 1 3 3 2 16 2

6440 2 3 1 3 3 1 3 16 2

6510 2 3 2 1 2 3 3 16 2

7140 3 3 3 1 3 2 3 18 3

7210 2 3 2 2 3 1 3 16 2

7230 3 3 3 1 3 1 3 17 3

9110 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 15 2

9130 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 15 2

9160 3 2 2 1 3 3 2 16 3

9190 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 14 2

91D0 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 18 3

91E0 3 3 2 1 3 3 3 18 3

91F0 3 3 1 2 3 3 3 18 3

Abbreviations: CONS: Average or reduced conservation status; REGE: Ability to regenerate; HORI: Horizontal distribution; ALTI: Altitudinal distribution; WATER: Dependency on ground- and surface water in water balance; COVER: Decrease of territorial coverage; NEOP: Influence of neophytes;



2310 4 3 1 1,75 1,5 2 1 2 0 Low/Med > High

2330 5 4 1,25 2 1,5 2 2 2 0 Low/Med > High

3130 18 17 1 3 1,5 2 7 8 2 Low/Med > High

3260 8 6 1,25 2,5 2 2 1 5 0 Low/Med > High

4010 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 Low > High

6210 34 34 1,25 3 1,75 2 4 22 8 Med/High > Low

6230 20 19 1,25 3 1,5 2 3 15 1 Low/Med > High

6410 25 22 1 3 1,625 2 4 17 1 Low/Med > High

6430 26 24 1,25 2 1,5 2 3 21 0 Med Indifferent

6440 7 7 1,25 3 2,5 3 1 4 2 Med/High > Low

6510 17 16 1,25 3 1,875 2 1 11 4 Med/High > Low

7140 23 16 1,25 3 2,25 2 1 14 1 Med Indifferent

7210 2 1 1,5 1,5 1,5 2 0 1 0 Med Indifferent

7230 27 26 1,25 3 1,75 2 4 19 3 Low/Med > High

9110 10 10 1,25 2,5 1,75 2 3 7 0 Low/Med > High

9130 8 8 1 2,5 1,375 1 4 4 0 Low/Med > High

9160 10 10 1,25 2,5 1,75 2 2 8 0 Low/Med > High

9190 10 5 1,25 2,5 2 2 1 4 0 Low/Med > High

91D0 19 11 1,25 3 2 2 1 8 2 Med/High > Low

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91E0 28 22 1 2,5 1,625 2 5 17 0 Low/Med > High

91F0 21 17 1,25 3 2 2 2 12 3 Med/High > Low



2310 4 1 1,5 1,5 1,5 2 0 1 0 Moist indifferent

2330 5 4 1 1 1 1 4 0 0 Dry > Wet

3130 18 16 1,75 3 2,5 3 0 9 7 Moist/Wet > Dry

3260 8 6 3 3 3 3 0 0 6 Wet > Dry


6210 34 34 1 1,5 1,125 1 33 1 0 Dry > Wet

6230 20 17 1,25 2,5 1,5 2 7 10 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

6410 25 20 1 3 2 2 1 18 1 Moist indifferent

6430 26 25 1,5 3 2 2 0 23 2 Moist indifferent

6440 7 7 2 2,5 2,5 3 0 7 0 Moist indifferent

6510 17 14 1 1,75 1,25 1 8 6 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

7140 23 22 1,75 3 3 3 0 9 13 Moist/Wet > Dry

7210 2 1 3 3 3 3 0 0 1 Wet > Dry

7230 27 26 1,25 3 2,5 3 1 13 12 Moist/Wet > Dry

9110 10 5 1,5 2 1,5 2 0 5 0 Moist indifferent




91D0 19 9 1,25 3 2,5 3 1 4 4 Moist/Wet > Dry

91E0 28 26 1,5 3 2,5 3 0 22 4 Moist/Wet > Dry

91F0 21 15 1,25 3 2 2 1 13 1 Moisz > Dry

[27]


3.2.2. Exposure






VEG 1/3 58.48 -1.55 -0.63 -1.69 44.99 6

VEG 2/3 10.72 -0.34 0.92 0.51 32.08 9

VEG 3/3 29.48 1.04 0.86 0.55 39.03 6.5

DORM -52.35 2.06 1.18 0.9 -66.06 -24

Scaled Median Scaled Median Scaled Median Scaled Median Scaled Median Scaled Median VEG 1/3 1.04 -0.81 -0.43 -1.02 0.77 0.4

VEG 2/3 0.19 -0.18 0.63 0.3 0.55 0.61

VEG 3/3 0.52 0.54 0.59 0.33 0.67 0.44

[28]

DORM -0.93 1.07 0.81 0.54 -1.13 -1.62

Magnitude Magnitude Magnitude Magnitude Magnitude Magnitude VEG 1/3 3 -2 -2 -3 2 2

VEG 2/3 1 -1 2 2 2 2

VEG 3/3 2 2 2 2 2 2

DORM -3 3 2 2 -3 -3






2310 1 3 1 2 > High 2 2 3 indifferent 6 2 5 4

2330 2 3 1 2 > High 2 1 2 > Wet 7 4 6 2

3130 3 3 1 2 > High 2 1 > Dry 8 5 5 3

3260 3 3 1 2 > High 2 1 > Dry 8 5 5 3


6210 3 3 > Low 2 1 2 > Wet 5 4 5 6

6230 2 3 1 2 > High 2 1 2 > Wet 7 4 6 2


6430 2 3 2 3 Indifferent 2 2 3 indifferent 7 2 6 8

6440 2 3 > Low 2 2 3 indifferent 4 2 4 8

6510 2 3 > Low 2 1 2 > Wet 4 3 4 5

7140 3 3 2 3 Indifferent 2 1 > Dry 8 4 5 6

7210 2 3 2 3 Indifferent 2 1 > Dry 7 3 4 5

7230 3 3 1 2 > High 2 1 > Dry 8 5 5 3





91D0 3 3 > Low 2 1 > Dry 5 4 3 6

91E0 3 3 1 2 > High 2 1 > Dry 8 5 5 3

91F0 3 3 > Low 2 1 > Dry 5 4 3 6

[29]



Impact

Code 1/3 2/3 3/3 D

2310 2 1 2 2

2330 3 2 2 1

3130 3 2 2 1

3260 3 2 2 1

4010 3 2 3 2

6210 2 2 2 2

6230 3 2 2 1

6410 3 1 2 2

6430 3 1 2 3

6440 2 1 2 3

6510 2 1 2 2

7140 3 2 2 2

7210 3 1 2 2

7230 3 2 2 1

9110 3 1 2 2

9130 3 1 2 2

9160 3 2 3 2

9190 3 1 2 2

91D0 2 2 1 2

91E0 3 2 2 1

91F0 2 2 1 2

[30]

3.3. Vessertal - Thuringian Forest Biosphere Reserve, Germany


Code Description

3160 Natural dystrophic lakes and ponds


4030 European dry heaths




6520 Mountain hay meadows

7110 * Active raised bogs

7120 Degraded raised bogs still capable of natural regeneration


7230 Alkaline fens

8150 Medio-European upland siliceous screes

8220 Siliceous rocky slopes with chasmophytic vegetation

8230 Siliceous rock with pioneer vegetation of the Sedo-Scleranthion or of the Sedo albi-Veronicion dillenii


9130 Asperulo-Fagetum beech forests

9180 * Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes and ravines

91D0 * Bog woodland


9410 Acidophilous Picea forests of the montane to alpine levels (Vaccinio-Piceetea)

[31]


Figure 17: Map of the habitat types (Source: own preparation, 2012)

3.3.1. Sensitivity



3160 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 18 3

3260 3 3 2 1 3 3 2 17 3

4030 2 3 3 1 1 2 3 15 2

6230 2 3 2 2 2 1 3 15 2

6430 2 2 3 1 3 3 2 16 2

6510 2 3 2 1 2 3 3 16 2

6520 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 15 2

7110 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 18 3

7120 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 18 3

7140 3 3 3 1 3 2 3 18 3

7230 3 3 3 1 3 1 3 17 3

8150 3 2 2 3 1 1 2 14 2

[32]

8220 3 2 3 3 2 1 2 16 2

8230 3 2 3 3 1 1 3 16 2

9110 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 15 2

9130 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 15 2

9180 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 17 3

91D0 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 18 3

91E0 3 3 2 1 3 3 3 18 3

9410 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 19 3






3160 11 8 1,25 3 1,875 2 1 6 1 Med indifferent

3260 6 6 1,25 2,5 2 2 1 5 0 Low/Med > High

[33]


4030 9 9 1 3 1,5 2 4 4 1 Low/Med > High

6230 20 19 1,25 3 1,5 2 4 14 1 Low/Med > High

6430 26 24 1,25 2 1,5 2 3 21 0 Med indifferent

6510 17 17 1,25 3 1,75 2 1 12 4 Med/High > Low

6520 26 23 1,25 3 1,75 2 3 19 1 Med indifferent

7110 24 20 1,25 3 2 2 3 14 3 Med indifferent

7140 23 17 1,25 3 2 2 1 15 1 Med indifferent

7230 26 26 1,25 3 1,75 2 4 19 3 Low/Med > High

8150 5 5 1,25 2 1,5 2 2 3 0 Low/Med > High

8220 22 22 1 3 1,75 2 8 11 3 Low/Med > High

8230 15 14 1,25 2,5 1,75 2 4 10 0 Low/Med > High

9110 10 10 1,25 2,5 1,75 2 3 7 0 Low/Med > High

9130 8 8 1 2,5 1,375 1 4 4 0 Low/Med > High

9180 10 10 1,25 1,75 1,625 2 4 6 0 Low/Med > High

91D0 16 14 1,25 3 2 2 1 11 2 Med indifferent

91E0 26 22 1 2,5 1,5 2 5 17 0 Low/Med > High

9410 18 16 1,25 3 1,875 2 2 12 2 Med indifferent

Figure 19: Indicator Map (Source: own preparation, 2012)

[34]



3160 11 11 1,25 3 3 3 1 0 10 Wet > Dry

3260 6 6 3 3 3 3 0 0 6 Wet > Dry

4030 9 7 1 1,75 1,5 2 2 5 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

6230 20 17 1,25 2,5 1,5 2 7 10 0 Dry/Moist > Wet


6510 17 14 1 1,75 1,25 1 8 6 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

6520 26 24 1 2,5 1,5 2 4 20 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

7110 24 23 1,75 3 3 3 0 6 17 Moist/Wet > Dry

7140 23 23 1,25 3 3 3 1 9 13 Moist/Wet > Dry

7230 26 26 1,25 3 2,5 3 1 13 12 Moist/Wet > Dry

8150 5 5 1 1,5 1,25 1 3 2 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

8220 22 22 1 1,75 1,25 1 17 5 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

8230 15 15 1 1,5 1 1 14 1 0 Dry > Wet

9110 10 5 1,5 2 1,5 2 0 5 0 Moist indifferent



91D0 16 11 1,25 3 2,5 3 3 4 4 Moist indifferent

91E0 26 26 1,5 3 2,5 3 0 22 4 Moist/Wet > Dry

9410 18 9 1,25 2 1,5 2 2 7 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

[35]



[36]

3.3.2. Exposure






VEG 1/3 51.22 -2.07 -0.47 -1.03 38.28 4

VEG 2/3 8.37 -0.59 0.93 0.91 27.54 9.5

VEG 3/3 42.48 1.08 0.94 0.69 50.35 7

DORM -40.56 2.28 1.39 0.97 -56.59 -20


VEG 1/3 0.83 -1.05 -0.32 -0.61 0.59 0.31

VEG 2/3 0.13 -0.29 0.64 0.54 0.42 0.73

[37]


VEG 3/3 0.68 0.54 0.65 0.41 0.78 0.54

DORM -0.65 1.15 0.96 0.58 -0.87 -1.53


VEG 1/3 2 -3 -2 -2 2 2

VEG 2/3 1 -1 2 2 2 2

VEG 3/3 2 2 2 2 2 2

DORM -2 3 3 2 -2 -3






3160 3 2 2 2 indifferent 3 1 > Dry 8 4 5 5

3260 3 2 1 2 > High 3 1 > Dry 8 5 5 3

4030 2 2 1 2 > High 3 1 2 > Wet 7 4 6 2

6230 2 2 1 2 > High 3 1 2 > Wet 7 4 6 2

6430 2 2 2 2 indifferent 3 2 3 indifferent 7 2 6 7

6510 2 2 > Low 3 1 2 > Wet 5 3 4 4

6520 2 2 2 2 indifferent 3 1 2 > Wet 7 3 6 4

7110 3 2 2 2 indifferent 3 1 > Dry 8 4 5 5

7140 3 2 2 2 indifferent 3 1 > Dry 8 4 5 5

7230 3 2 1 2 > High 3 1 > Dry 8 5 5 3

8150 2 2 1 2 > High 3 1 2 > Wet 7 4 6 2

8220 2 2 1 2 > High 3 1 2 > Wet 7 4 6 2

8230 2 2 1 2 > High 3 1 2 > Wet 7 4 6 2




91D0 3 2 2 2 indifferent 3 2 3 indifferent 8 3 7 8

91E0 3 2 1 2 > High 3 1 > Dry 8 5 5 3

9410 3 2 2 2 indifferent 3 1 > Wet 8 4 5 5

[38]


Impact

Code 1/3 2/3 3/3 D

3160 3 2 2 2

3260 3 2 2 1

4030 3 2 2 1

6230 3 2 2 1

6430 3 1 2 3

6510 2 1 2 2

6520 3 1 2 2

7110 3 2 2 2

7140 3 2 2 2

7230 3 2 2 1

8150 3 2 2 1

8220 3 2 2 1

8230 3 2 2 1

9110 3 1 2 2

9130 3 1 2 2

9180 3 2 3 2

91D0 3 1 3 3

91E0 3 2 2 3

9410 3 2 2 2

[39]



[40]


[41]



[42]


[43]


3.4. Natural Park Bucegi, Romania


Code Description

4060 Alpine and Boreal heaths

4070 * Bushes with Pinus mugo and Rhododendron hirsutum (Mugo-Rhododendretum hirsuti)

6150 Siliceous alpine and boreal grasslands



8120 Calcareous and calcshist screes of the montane to alpine levels (Thlaspietea rotundifolii)

8210 Calcareous rocky slopes with chasmophytic vegetation


91V0 Dacian Beech forests (Symphyto-Fagion)

9410 Acidophilous Picea forests of the montane to alpine levels (Vaccinio-Piceetea)


[44]

3.4.1. Sensitivity

Table 36: Regional expert knowledge assessment (alpine region) (Source: modified after Petermann et al. 2007)


4060 3 2 3 3 1 1 1 14 2

4070 2 1 3 3 1 1 1 12 1

6150 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 13 1

6230 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 13 1

6430 2 2 3 1 3 3 2 16 2

8120 2 1 3 3 1 1 1 12 1

8210 3 2 3 3 2 1 1 15 2

9110 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 15 2

91V0 3 3 2 1 2 1 2 14 2

9410 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 19 3


Figure 27: Regional sensitivity map (Source: modified after Petermann et al. 2007)

[45]




4060 80 72 1 2,5 1,25 1 44 28 0 Low/Med > High

4070 15 14 1,25 2 1,625 2 3 11 0 Low/Med > High

6150 130 118 1 3 1,5 2 53 59 6 Low/Med > High

6230 78 72 1 3 1,5 2 28 39 5 Low/Med > High

6430 30 28 1,5 2,5 2 2 0 28 0 Med indifferent

8120 29 26 1 3 1,25 1 20 4 2 Low > High

8210 31 27 1 2 1,25 1 20 7 0 Low/Med > High

9110 68 62 1,5 3 2 2 0 57 5 Med indifferent

91V0 107 99 1,5 3 2 2 0 86 13 Med indifferent

9410 234 216 1,25 3 2 2 6 188 22 Med indifferent


[46]



4060 80 73 1 3 1,75 2 2 71 5 Moist indifferent








91V0 107 98 1,25 3 1,75 2 0 99 7 Moist indifferent



[47]


3.4.2. Exposure

Figure 30: Ensemble plots showing exposure per vegetation periods (Source: own preparation, 2012)




VEG 1/3 4.85 -1.53 -0.3 -0.51 -0.16 7

VEG 2/3 -6.57 0.06 1.73 2.1 15.61 10

VEG 3/3 2.38 1.37 1.18 0.85 12.51 7.5

DORM -62.84 1.92 1.45 1.03 -72.55 -15


VEG 1/3 0.07 -0.71 -0.18 -0.29 0 0.58

VEG 2/3 -0.1 0.03 1.07 1.17 0.22 0.83

[48]

VEG 3/3 0.04 0.63 0.73 0.48 0.18 0.62

DORM -0.93 0.89 0.89 0.57 -1.03 -1.24


VEG 1/3 1 -2 -1 -1 1 2

VEG 2/3 -1 1 3 3 1 2

VEG 3/3 1 2 2 2 1 2

DORM -3 2 2 2 -3 -3






4060 2 1 1 > High 2 2 2 indifferent 5 2 5 4




6430 2 1 3 indifferent 2 2 2 indifferent 5 2 4 7




91V0 2 1 3 indifferent 2 2 2 indifferent 5 2 4 7



Impact

Code 1/3 2/3 3/3 D

4060 2 1 2 2

4070 2 1 2 1

6150 2 1 2 1

6230 2 1 2 1

6430 2 1 2 3

8120 2 1 2 1

8210 2 1 2 2

[49]


9110 2 1 2 3

91V0 2 1 2 3

9410 2 1 2 3


[50]


[51]



[52]


[53]


3.5. Balaton Uplands National Park, Hungary


Code Description

6240 * Sub-Pannonic steppic grasslands


7230 Alkaline fens







91M0 Pannonian-Balkanic turkey oak sessile oak forests



[54]

3.5.1. Sensitivity

Table 43: Regional expert knowledge assessment (pannonian region) (Source: modified after Petermann et al. 2007)


3160 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 18 3

6210 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 10 1

6230 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 10 1

6240 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 9 1

6410 1 3 1 1 2 3 2 13 1

6440 1 2 1 1 3 3 2 13 1

7210 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 9 1

7230 3 3 1 2 3 1 3 16 2

91E0 2 2 1 1 3 2 2 13 1

91M0 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 9 1




[55]




3160 4 4 1,75 2,5 1,875 2 0 4 0 Med Indifferent

6210 71 70 1,75 3 2 2 0 60 10 Med Indifferent

6230 19 18 1,5 3 2 2 0 16 2 Med Indifferent

6240 86 83 1,75 3 2,5 3 0 42 41 Med/High > Low

6410 100 97 1,75 3 2 2 0 91 6 Med Indifferent

6440 25 25 1,75 3 2 2 0 24 1 Med Indifferent

7210 8 8 2 3 2,5 3 0 7 1 Med Indifferent

7230 19 18 1,75 3 2 2 0 15 3 Med/High > Low

91E0 34 34 1,75 2,5 2 2 0 34 0 Med Indifferent

91M0 19 19 1,75 3 2,5 3 0 15 4 Med/High > Low



[56]



3160 4 4 3 3 3 3 0 0 4 Wet > Dry

6210 71 70 1 2,5 1,25 1 51 19 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

6230 19 18 1 2,5 1,25 1 11 7 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

6240 86 83 1 2,5 1 1 76 7 0 Dry > Wet

6410 100 97 1 3 2 2 11 78 8 Moist Indifferent

6440 25 25 1,5 3 2 2 0 21 4 Moist/Wet > Dry

7210 8 8 2,5 3 3 3 0 3 5 Moist/Wet > Dry

7230 19 18 2,5 3 2,5 3 0 10 8 Moist/Wet > Dry

91E0 34 34 1,5 3 3 3 0 15 19 Moist/Wet > Dry

91M0 19 19 1 2 1,5 2 8 11 0 Dry/Moist > Wet



[57]


3.5.2. Exposure





VEG 1/3 30.19 -0.85 -0.04 -0.77 22.69 8

VEG 2/3 -5.8 -0.73 1.36 1.26 15.79 9

VEG 3/3 12.52 1.39 1 0.69 27.16 8

DORM -35.18 2.85 1.24 0.99 -44.32 -19


VEG 1/3 0.67 -0.36 -0.03 -0.43 0.5 0.56

VEG 2/3 -0.13 -0.31 0.88 0.72 0.35 0.63

[58]

VEG 3/3 0.28 0.59 0.65 0.39 0.6 0.56

DORM -0.78 1.22 0.8 0.56 -0.97 -1.33


VEG 1/3 2 -2 -1 -2 2 2

VEG 2/3 -1 -2 2 2 2 2

VEG 3/3 1 2 2 2 2 2

DORM -2 3 2 2 -3 -3






3160 3 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 > Dry 7 5 3 5

6210 1 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 2 > Wet 5 3 3 3

6230 1 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 2 > Wet 5 3 3 3

6240 1 1 2 > Low 2 2 2 > Wet 3 4 3 3

6410 1 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 2 3 Indifferent 5 3 3 6

6440 1 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 > Dry 5 3 1 3

7210 1 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 > Dry 5 3 1 3

7230 2 1 2 > Low 2 2 > Dry 4 5 2 4

91E0 1 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 > Dry 5 3 1 3

91M0 1 1 2 > Low 2 2 2 > Wet 3 4 3 3


Impact

Code 1/3 2/3 3/3 D

3160 3 2 1 2

6210 2 1 1 1

6230 2 1 1 1

6240 1 2 1 1

6410 2 1 1 2

6440 2 1 1 1

7210 2 1 1 1

[59]


7230 2 2 1 2

91E0 2 1 1 1

91M0 1 2 1 1


[60]


[61]



[62]


[63]


3.6. Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania


Code Description

1110 Sandbanks which are slightly covered by sea water all the time

1140 Mudflats and sandflats not covered by seawater at low tide

1150 * Coastal lagoons

1160 Large shallow inlets and bays

1210 Annual vegetation of drift lines

1310 Salicornia and other annuals colonizing mud and sand

1340 * Inland salt meadows

1410 Mediterranean salt meadows (Juncetalia maritimi)

1530 * Pannonic salt steppes and salt marshes

2110 Embryonic shifting dunes

2130 * Fixed coastal dunes with herbaceous vegetation (grey dunes)

2160 Dunes with Hippopha rhamnoides

2190 Humid dune slacks

2340 * Pannonic inland dunes


3140 Hard oligo-mesotrophic waters with benthic vegetation of Chara spp.

3150 Natural eutrophic lakes with Magnopotamion or Hydrocharition type vegetation



3270 Rivers with muddy banks with Chenopodion rubri p.p. and Bidention p.p. vegetation

40C0 * Ponto-Sarmatic deciduous thickets

6120 * Xeric sand calcareous grasslands

6260 * Pannonic sand steppes

6420 Mediterranean tall humid grasslands of the Molinio-Holoschoenion



91AA * Eastern white oak woods


92A0 Salix alba and Populus alba galleries

92D0 Southern riparian galleries and thickets (Nerio-Tamaricetea and Securinegion tinctoriae)

[64]


3.6.1. Sensitivity

Table 50: Regional expert knowledge assessment (Delta area) (Source: modified after Petermann et al. 2007)


1110 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 1

1140 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 11 1

1150 3 2 1 2 3 1 3 15 2

1160 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 11 1

1210 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 11 1

1310 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 10 1

1340 3 3 1 3 2 1 3 16 2

1410 1 3 1 3 3 1 3 15 2

1530 2 2 1 1 3 1 2 12 1

2110 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 9 1

2130 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 12 1

2160 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 10 1

[65]


2190 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 14 2

2340 2 2 1 2 1 3 11 1

3130 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 17 3

3140 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 18 3

3150 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 15 2

3160 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 18 3

3260 3 3 2 1 3 3 2 17 3

3270 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 16 2

40C0 2 2 1 2 1 3 11 1

6120 2 3 1 3 1 2 3 15 2

6260 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 18 3

6420 2 2 1 2 1 3 11 1

6440 2 3 1 3 3 1 3 16 3

6510 2 3 2 1 2 3 3 16 3

91AA 2 2 1 2 1 3 11 1

91F0 3 3 1 2 3 3 3 18 3

92A0 3 2 1 2 3 3 3 17 3

92D0 2 2 1 2 1 3 11 1


[66]





1110 3 3 1,25 3 1,25 1 2 0 1 Low/High Indifferent

1150 3 2 2 3 2,5 3 0 1 1 Med/High > Low

1160 3 2 1,75 3 2,375 2 0 1 1 Med/High > Low

1210 6 2 1,5 3 2,25 2 0 1 1 Med/High > Low

1310 7 3 2,5 3 2,5 3 0 2 1 Med/High > Low

1340 2 2 2,5 2,5 2,5 3 0 2 0 Med Indifferent

1410 3 2 1,5 3 2,25 2 0 1 1 Med/High > Low

1530 4 2 2,5 3 2,75 3 0 1 1 Med/High > Low

2110 4 2 2 2,5 2,25 2 0 2 0 Med Indifferent

2130 4 4 1,5 3 2,5 3 0 2 2 Med/High > Low

2160 3 3 2 2,5 2 2 0 3 0 Med Indifferent

2190 3 3 1,75 3 3 3 0 1 2 Med/High > Low

2340 2 1 2 2 2 2 0 1 0 Med > Low

3130 7 6 1,25 2 1,625 2 2 4 0 Low/Med > High

3150 7 6 1,25 2 1,875 2 1 5 0 Low/Med > High

[67]


3160 5 5 1,5 2 2 2 0 5 0 Med Indifferent

3260 7 4 1,25 2,5 2 2 1 3 0 Low/Med > High

3270 5 3 2 2,5 2 2 0 3 0 Med Indifferent

6120 6 5 1,5 3 2,5 3 0 3 2 Med/High > Low

6260 7 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 3 High > Low

6420 3 2 1,5 2 1,75 2 0 2 0 Med Indifferent

6440 6 6 2 3 2,5 3 0 4 2 Med/High > Low

6510 3 2 2 2,5 2,25 2 0 2 0 Med Indifferent

91AA 3 2 1,75 1,75 1,75 2 0 2 0 Med Indifferent

91F0 4 3 2 3 2,5 3 0 2 1 Med/High > Low

92A0 7 7 1,5 3 2,5 3 0 5 2 Med/High > Low

92D0 2 1 3 3 3 3 0 0 1 High > Low



[68]



1110 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 3 Wet > Dry

1150 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 3 Wet > Dry

1160 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 3 Wet > Dry

1210 6 5 1 2,5 1,75 2 2 3 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

1310 7 5 2 2,5 2,5 3 0 5 0 Moist Indifferent

1340 2 2 1,5 1,75 1,625 2 0 2 0 Moist Indifferent


1530 4 2 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 Dry > Wet

2110 4 2 1 2 1,5 2 1 1 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

2130 4 3 1 1 1 1 3 0 0 Dry > Wet

2160 3 3 1 2 1,25 1 2 1 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

2190 3 3 1 2,5 1,5 2 1 2 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

2340 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 Dry > Wet

3130 7 7 2 3 3 3 0 3 4 > Dry

3150 7 7 3 3 3 3 0 0 7 Wet > Dry

3160 5 5 3 3 3 3 0 0 5 Wet > Dry

3260 7 6 3 3 3 3 0 0 6 Wet > Dry

3270 5 5 1,5 3 2 2 0 4 1 Moist/Wet > Dry

6120 6 4 1 1 1 1 4 0 0 Dry > Wet

6260 7 3 1 1 1 1 3 0 0 Dry > Wet

6420 3 2 2,5 3 2,75 3 0 1 1 Moist/Wet > Dry

6440 6 6 1 3 2,5 3 1 4 1 Moist Indifferent

6510 3 3 1,5 1,75 1,5 2 0 3 0 Moist Indifferent

91AA 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 Dry > Wet

91F0 4 2 2 2,5 2,25 2 0 2 0 Moist Indifferent

92A0 7 6 1,75 3 2 2 0 5 1 Moist/Wet > Dry

[69]




3.6.2. Exposure

[70]





VEG 1/3 6.97 0.22 0.29 0.06 4.18 6.5

VEG 2/3 -4.8 -0.05 1.62 1.62 8.06 8

VEG 3/3 4.65 1.4 2.01 1.71 12.69 7

DORM -6.89 3.38 1.72 1.65 -17.32 -13


VEG 1/3 0.17 0.1 0.16 0.04 0.1 0.51

VEG 2/3 -0.11 -0.02 0.9 0.89 0.2 0.63

VEG 3/3 0.11 0.63 1.11 0.94 0.31 0.55

[71]


DORM -0.16 1.52 0.96 0.91 -0.43 -1.02


VEG 1/3 1 1 1 1 1 2

VEG 2/3 -1 -1 3 2 1 2

VEG 3/3 1 2 3 3 2 2

DORM -1 3 3 3 -2 -3






1110 1 Indifferent 1 > Dry 1 2 1 1

1150 2 1 1 > Low 1 > Dry 2 4 2 3

1160 1 1 1 > Low 1 > Dry 1 3 1 2

1210 1 1 1 > Low 1 1 2 > Wet 2 3 3 2

1310 1 1 1 > Low 2 3 Indifferent 1 2 3 5

1340 2 Indifferent 2 3 Indifferent 2 2 4 5

1410 2 1 1 > Low 2 3 Indifferent 2 3 4 6

1530 1 1 1 > Low 1 1 2 > Wet 2 3 3 2

2110 1 Indifferent 1 1 2 > Wet 2 2 3 1

2130 1 1 1 > Low 1 1 2 > Wet 2 3 3 2

2160 1 Indifferent 1 1 2 > Wet 2 2 3 1

2190 2 1 1 > Low 1 1 2 > Wet 3 4 4 3

2340 1 1 1 > Low 1 1 2 > Wet 2 3 3 2

3130 3 1 1 > High 1 > Dry 4 4 4 3

3150 2 1 1 > High 1 > Dry 3 3 3 2


3260 3 1 1 > High 1 > Dry 4 4 4 3


6120 2 1 1 > Low 1 > Wet 2 4 2 3

6260 3 1 1 > Low 1 > Wet 3 5 3 4


6440 3 1 1 > Low 2 3 Indifferent 3 4 5 7

6510 3 Indifferent 2 3 Indifferent 3 3 5 6

91AA 1 Indifferent 1 1 2 > Wet 2 2 3 1

[72]

91F0 3 1 1 > Low 2 3 Indifferent 3 4 5 7

92A0 3 1 1 > Low 1 > Dry 3 5 3 4


Impact

Code 1/3 2/3 3/3 D

1110 1 1 1 1

1150 1 2 1 1

1160 1 1 1 1

1210 1 1 1 1

1310 1 1 1 2

1340 1 1 2 2

1410 1 1 2 2

1530 1 1 1 1

2110 1 1 1 1

2130 1 1 1 1

2160 1 1 1 1

2190 1 2 2 1

2340 1 1 1 1

3130 2 2 2 1

3150 1 1 1 1

3160 1 2 1 1

3260 2 2 2 1

3270 1 1 1 1

6120 1 2 1 1

6260 1 2 1 2

6420 1 1 1 1

6440 1 2 2 3

6510 1 1 2 2

91AA 1 1 1 1

91F0 1 2 2 3

92A0 1 2 1 2

[73]



[74]


[75]



[76]


[77]


3.7. Koros-Maros National Park, Hungary


Code Description



6250 * Pannonic loess steppic grasslands





[78]

3.7.1. Sensitivity



1530 2 2 1 1 3 2 1 12 1

3150 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 16 2

6250 3 3 3 1 2 3 3 18 3

6440 3 1 2 1 3 3 3 16 2

91E0 2 2 1 1 3 2 2 13 1




[79]




1530 210 206 1,75 3 2,5 3 0 112 94 Med/High > Low

3150 35 34 2 3 2,5 3 0 27 7 Med/High > Low

6250 167 167 2 3 2,5 3 0 107 60 Med/High > Low

6440 128 127 1,75 3 2,5 3 0 106 21 Med/High > Low

91E0 58 54 1,5 3 2 2 0 51 3 Med Indifferent





1530 210 206 1 3 1,75 2 76 88 42 Dry/Wet Indifferent

3150 35 34 2,5 3 3 3 0 2 32 Wet > Dry

6250 167 167 1 2 1 1 143 24 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

6440 128 127 1 3 2,5 3 7 65 55 Moist/Wet > Dry

91E0 58 54 1,5 3 2,5 3 0 31 23 Moist/Wet > Dry

[80]



[81]


3.7.2. Exposure





VEG 1/3 27.03 -0.75 -0.28 -0.67 23.97 9

VEG 2/3 -10.3 -0.7 1.3 1.19 7.8 9.5

VEG 3/3 13.37 1.67 0.79 0.55 25.22 7

DORM -26.39 2.8 1.4 1.01 -36.73 -19


VEG 1/3 0.68 -0.31 -0.17 -0.36 0.61 0.62

VEG 2/3 -0.26 -0.29 0.78 0.64 0.2 0.65

[82]

VEG 3/3 0.34 0.68 0.48 0.29 0.64 0.48

DORM -0.67 1.14 0.84 0.54 -0.94 -1.3


VEG 1/3 2 -2 -1 -2 2 2

VEG 2/3 -1 -1 2 2 1 2

VEG 3/3 2 2 2 1 2 2

DORM -2 3 2 2 -3 -3






1530 1 1 2 > Low 2 2 3 Indifferent 3 2 3 6

3150 2 1 2 > Low 2 3 > Dry 2 3 4 7

6250 3 1 2 > Low 2 1 2 > Wet 5 5 5 5

6440 2 1 2 > Low 2 3 > Dry 2 3 4 7

91E0 1 2 2 2 Indifferent 2 3 > Dry 3 1 5 6


Impact

Code 1/3 2/3 3/3 D

1530 1 1 1 2

3150 1 1 2 3

6250 2 2 2 2

6440 1 1 2 3

91E0 1 1 2 2

[83]



[84]


[85]



[86]

Figure 61: Potential Impact Map (Vegetation Period D)


3.8. Lake Neusiedl / Fert - Hansag National Park, Austria / Hungary


Code Description






40A0 * Subcontinental peri-Pannonic scrub

6110 * Rupicolous calcareous or basophilic grasslands of the Alysso-Sedion albi

6190 Rupicolous pannonic grasslands (Stipo-Festucetalia pallentis)


6240 * Sub-Pannonic steppic grasslands

6250 * Pannonic loess steppic grasslands

[87]


6260 * Pannonic sand steppes





7230 Alkaline fens

9170 Galio-Carpinetum oak-hornbeam forests

9180 * Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes and ravines



91G0 * Pannonic woods with Quercus petraea and Carpinus betulus

91H0 * Pannonian woods with Quercus pubescens

91I0 * Euro-Siberian steppic woods with Quercus spp.

91M0 Pannonian-Balkanic turkey oak sessile oak forests

9260 Castanea sativa woods



3.8.1. Sensitivity

[88]



1530 2 2 1 1 3 1 2 12 1

3130 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 17 3

3150 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 15 2

3160 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 18 3

3260 3 3 2 1 3 3 2 17 3

6110 3 2 2 3 1 1 2 14 2

6190 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 14 2

6210 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 10 1

6240 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 9 1

6250 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 18 3

6260 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 18 3

6410 1 3 1 1 2 3 2 13 3

6440 1 2 1 1 3 3 2 13 1

6510 2 3 2 1 2 3 3 16 2

7210 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 9 1

7230 3 3 1 2 3 1 3 16 2

9170 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 12 1

9180 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 17 3

91E0 2 2 1 1 3 2 2 13 1

91F0 3 3 1 2 3 3 3 18 3

91G0 3 1 1 3 1 1 2 12 1

91H0 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 10 1

91I0 3 3 2 3 1 3 3 18 3

91M0 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 9 1


[89]






1530 11 10 2 3 3 3 0 2 8 Med/High > Low

3130 18 9 1,75 3 2,5 3 0 6 3 Med/High > Low

3150 8 7 2 3 2,5 3 0 5 2 Med/High > Low

3160 14 7 1,75 2,5 1,75 2 0 7 0 Med Indifferent

3260 8 3 2 2,5 2,5 3 0 3 0 Med Indifferent

6110 9 6 2,5 3 2,75 3 0 3 3 Med/High > Low

6190 20 20 1,5 3 3 3 0 6 14 Med/High > Low

6210 34 34 2 3 2,5 3 0 25 9 Med/High > Low

6240 23 23 2,5 3 3 3 0 5 18 Med/High > Low

6250 15 14 2,5 3 3 3 0 2 12 Med/High > Low

6260 12 12 2,5 3 3 3 0 2 10 Med/High > Low

6410 25 19 1,75 2,5 2 2 0 19 0 Med Indifferent

6440 7 6 2,5 3 2,75 3 0 3 3 Med/High > Low

6510 17 12 2 2,5 2 2 0 12 0 Med Indifferent

7210 2 1 2,5 2,5 2,5 3 0 1 0 Med Indifferent

[90]

7230 27 15 1,75 3 2 2 0 14 1 Med Indifferent

9170 11 11 2 3 2,5 3 0 8 3 Med/High > Low

9180 10 8 2 2,5 2 2 0 8 0 Med Indifferent

91E0 28 24 1,5 3 2 2 0 22 2 Med Indifferent

91F0 21 14 2 3 2,5 3 0 8 6 Med/High > Low

91G0 15 15 2 3 2,5 3 0 12 3 Med/High > Low

91H0 21 21 2,5 3 3 3 0 5 16 Med/High > Low

91I0 20 20 2 3 2,5 3 0 12 8 Med/High > Low

91M0 33 31 2 3 2,5 3 0 17 14 Med/High > Low





1530 11 10 1 2,5 1,375 1 5 5 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

3130 18 9 2 3 3 3 0 3 6 Moist/Wet > Dry

3150 8 7 3 3 3 3 0 0 7 Wet > Dry

3160 14 7 3 3 3 3 0 0 7 Wet > Dry

[91]


3260 8 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 3 Wet > Dry

6110 9 6 1 1,25 1 1 6 0 0 Dry > Wet

6190 20 20 1 1 1 1 20 0 0 Dry > Wet

6210 34 34 1 1,75 1,125 1 29 5 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

6240 23 23 1 1 1 1 23 0 0 Dry > Wet

6250 15 14 1 1,25 1 1 14 0 0 Dry > Wet

6260 12 12 1 1 1 1 12 0 0 Dry > Wet

6410 25 19 1,25 3 2 2 1 17 1 Moist Indifferent


6510 17 12 1 1,75 1,5 2 4 8 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

7210 2 1 3 3 3 3 0 0 1 Wet > Dry

7230 27 15 1,75 3 3 3 0 6 9 Moist/Wet > Dry

9170 11 11 1,25 1,75 1,5 2 3 8 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

9180 10 8 1,5 2 1,625 2 0 8 0 Moist Indifferent

91E0 28 24 1,5 3 2,25 2 0 18 6 Moist/Wet > Dry

91F0 21 14 1,25 3 1,75 2 2 11 1 Dry/Moist > Wet

91G0 15 15 1,25 1,75 1,5 2 4 11 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

91H0 21 21 1 1,5 1,25 1 16 5 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

91I0 20 20 1 2 1,375 1 10 10 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

91M0 33 31 1 1,5 1,5 2 12 19 0 Dry/Moist > Wet

[92]



[93]


3.8.2. Exposure





VEG 1/3 37.73 -0.75 0 -0.44 23.36 7

VEG 2/3 4.94 -0.75 1.39 1.28 21.02 8

VEG 3/3 13.57 1.18 0.97 0.39 31.99 7.5

DORM -23.78 2.42 1.12 0.9 -43.74 -23


VEG 1/3 0.82 -0.33 0 -0.25 0.5 0.49

VEG 2/3 0.11 -0.33 0.89 0.72 0.45 0.56

[94]

VEG 3/3 0.3 0.52 0.62 0.22 0.68 0.53

DORM -0.52 1.06 0.72 0.51 -0.93 -1.61


VEG 1/3 2 -2 1 -1 2 2

VEG 2/3 1 -2 2 2 2 2

VEG 3/3 1 2 2 1 2 2

DORM -2 3 2 2 -3 -3






1530 1 2 > Low 2 2 2 > Wet 3 3 3 3

3130 3 2 > Low 2 2 > Dry 5 5 3 5

3150 2 2 > Low 2 2 > Dry 4 4 2 4

3160 3 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 > Dry 7 5 3 5

3260 3 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 > Dry 7 5 3 5

6110 2 2 > Low 2 2 2 > Wet 4 4 4 4

6190 2 2 > Low 2 2 2 > Wet 4 4 4 4

6210 1 2 > Low 2 2 2 > Wet 3 3 3 3

6240 1 2 > Low 2 2 2 > Wet 3 3 3 3

6250 3 2 > Low 2 2 2 > Wet 5 5 5 5

6260 3 2 > Low 2 2 2 > Wet 5 5 5 5

6410 3 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 2 3 Indifferent 7 5 5 8

6440 1 2 > Low 2 2 2 3 Indifferent 3 3 3 6

6510 2 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 2 > Wet 6 4 4 4

7210 1 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 > Dry 5 3 1 3

7230 2 2 2 Indifferent 2 2 > Dry 6 4 2 4

habit-change_4_3_5+4_6_1+4_6_2_report sensitivity+potential_impact_maps

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