gulf coast green 2012 aaron tuley

Gulf Coast Green

Symposium and Expo 2012

The Politics of Carbon Management: The Politics of Carbon Management: Treaties, Programs, and Plans

Aaron Tuley, AICP, ManagerDistrict No. 11

Session Objectives:

The Politics of Carbon Management: To provide and overview -

The evolution of International Accords and Agreements

The strategies behind National Commitments and ProgramsThe strategies behind National Commitments and Programs

Regional and State Programs

. . . to reduce emissions and resulting atmospheric concentrations of CO2

We are faced with the fact, my

friends, that tomorrow is today.

We are confronted with the

fierce urgency of now.

In this unfolding conundrum of

life and history there is such a

thing as being too late. . .thing as being too late. . .

Over the bleached bones and

jumbled residues of numerous

civilizations are written the

pathetic words: ‘Too late.’Martin Luther King, Jr.

Scientists are forewarning –

- will trigger potentially irreversible glacial melt and sea level rise…

“out of humanity’s control.”

450 ppm

394.45

RUNAWAY CLIMATE

At the current population growth rate of 1.5%, atmospheric concentrations

of CO2 are increasing at a rate at approx. 2 ppm annually.

450 ppm in 2040

As of 12 April 2012 - 394.45 ppm

Including land-use change and deforestation, emissions reached:

48 billion metric tons CO2e (36.7 BMTCO2)20105.9% increase over 2009

The Hottest Year Ever Measured(Statistically tied with 2005)

Source: NASA/GISS

48 billion metric tons of CO2e (UNEP, 2010)

Scenario 3: Late and Slow DeclineAction Starts in 203076% Increase in Emissions by 2050 =4 – 5.2˚C rise in global temperature by 2100

Scenario 4: Business as Usual (No action taken)132% Increase in Emissions by 20505.5 – 7.1˚C rise in global temperature by 2100

Scenario 1: Early and Rapid DeclineAction Starts in 201047% Decrease in Emissions =2.1 - 2.8˚C rise in global temperature by 2100

Scenario 2: Early but Slow DeclineAction Starts in 2010Emissions return to 1990 levels by 2050 =2.9 - 3.8˚C rise in global temperature by 2100

4 – 5.2˚C rise in global temperature by 2100

What are we doing about it?

Is there enough time to alter this trajectory?

Are we too late . . . ?

International Agreements

1992

In response to the Brundtland Commission’s report, "Our Common Future,”

an international conference was convened address urgent problems of

environmental protection and socio-economic development.

World Climate Conference

Rio Earth Summit

Results

Three (3) United Nations Conventions were adopted:

•Convention on Biological Diversity

•Convention to Combat Desertification

•Framework Convention on Climate Change

Agenda 21

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Purpose –

1.To illuminate the fact that climate change is a problem.

2.Set lofty but specific, achievable goals.

3.Put the onus on developed countries to lead the way.

4.Direct new funds to climate change activities in developing countries.

5.Keep tabs on the problem and what's being done about it.

6.Formalize realistic consideration of adaptation to climate change.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC –

“to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that

will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system."

further stating that -

“such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems “such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems

to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened,

and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.“

The UNFCCC entered into force on 21 March 1994.

Parties to the Convention – 192 signatory countries to the UNFCCC.

Parties agreed -

Annex I countries should reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2000.

(8 ppm in five years)

UNFCCC Key Principle –

Parties should act to protect the climate system, “on the basis of equality and in

accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and

respective capabilities.”

This principle includes two fundamental elements:

1. The common responsibility of Parties to protect the environment, or parts of it, 1. The common responsibility of Parties to protect the environment, or parts of it,

at the national, regional and global levels.

2. The need to take into account the different circumstances, particularly each Party’s

contribution to the problem and its ability to prevent, reduce and control the threat

(makes the distinction between “developed” versus “developing” countries).

1995UNFCCC realized that emission reductions provisions in the Convention

were inadequate. They launched negotiations to strengthen the global response

to climate change, and, two years later, adopted the Kyoto Protocol.

1997 COP 3: Kyoto, Japan 2006 COP 12: Nairobi, Kenya

2005 COP 11: Montreal, Canada

2004 COP 10: Buenos Aires, Argentina

Conferences of the Parties 1995 - 2012

1995 COP 1: Berlin, Germany

1996 COP 2: Geneva, Switzerland

1997 COP 3: Kyoto, Japan

1998 COP 4: Buenos Aires, Argentina

1999 COP 5: Bonn, Germany

2000 COP 6: The Hague, The Netherlands

2001 COP 7: Marrakech, Morocco

2012 COP 18: Doha, Qatar

2011 COP 17: Durban, South Africa

2010 COP 16: Cancun, Mexico

2009 COP 15: Copenhagen, Denmark

2008 COP 14: Poznan, Poland

2007 COP 13: Bali, Indonesia

2003 COP 9: Milan, Italy

2002 COP 8: New Delhi, India

2009 COP 15: Copenhagen, Denmark

2011 COP 17: Durban, South Africa

2012 COP 18: Doha, Qatar

2010 COP 16: Cancun, Mexico

The Kyoto Protocol (KP) was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and

entered into force on 16 February 2005.

The Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding agreement under which industrialized countries

will reduce GHG emissions by –

1997Conferences of the Parties 3

The Kyoto Climate Change Conference

will reduce GHG emissions by –

5% emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels over a five-year period (2008-2012).

(1990 = 350 ppm CO2)

Problem:

Developed countries came under a compliance of emitting GHGs under a cap,

while the developing countries were allowed to emit without a limit.

Under the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures.

Kyoto Protocol offers three market-based mechanisms:

1



1Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

• Relationship between industrialized country and a developing country

• industrialized country with emission-reduction commitment (host)

v

implements an emission-reduction project

v

in a developing country.

• host country earns saleable, certified emission reduction (CER) credits, which can be

counted towards meeting Kyoto target.

Kyoto Protocol’s market-based mechanisms:

2Joint Implementation (JI)



Joint Implementation (JI)

• between two industrialized countries

•allows a country with an emission reduction commitment to earn emission reduction

units (ERUs) from an emission-reduction / removal project in another country, which

can be counted towards meeting its Kyoto target.

•underlying premise that it is cheaper to implement an emission reduction / removal

project in a country other than in the host country.

•offers Parties a flexible, cost-efficient means of fulfilling Kyoto commitments, while

the host Party benefits from foreign investment and technology transfer.

Kyoto Protocol’s market-based mechanisms:

3Emission Trading (ET)



Emission Trading (ET)

•Under this scheme Parties would buy carbon credits developed by renewable

projects in developing countries, at a flexible market rate to offset the extra

amount to emissions.

European Union

Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)

ETS has been operational since 2005 and is the LARGEST

international scheme for the trading of GHG emission

allowances.

The EU ETS covers some 11,000 power stations and

industrial plants in 30 countries.

The GOAL of the EU ETS is to encourage capital investment

in low-carbon energy technologies and fuels.

The Kyoto Protocol requires the EU-15 countries reduce

their collective emissions to -

08% below 1990 levels between 2008-2012.

Emissions monitoring and projections show that the EU-15 has met this target.

Unilateral commitment, implemented through binding legislation, to cut emissions

by at least - 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. (500 MMTCO2e by 2020)

EU has offered to increase its emissions reduction to -

30% of 1990 levels by 2020,

on condition that other major emitting developed / developing countries commit to

do their fair share under a future global climate agreement.

Non-binding, Copenhagen Accord was drafted by the U.S. -

1. recognizes the scientific case for keeping temperature rises below 2°°°°C, but

•does not contain a baseline for this target, and removes all benchmarks

and commitments for reduced emissions that would be necessary to achieve


The Copenhagen Climate Summit

and commitments for reduced emissions that would be necessary to achieve

the target (blessing and a curse).

2. Commits capital support for Developing Countries

•Green Climate Fund - $30 billion quick start funding ramping-up to $100 billion.

4. U.S. agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020,

42% by 2030 and 83% by 2050

2005 = 379.1 ppm CO2 (44.5 BMTCO2e)

Problems –

Non-binding, in that Parties did not sign-it and therefore did not agree to commit to it.

COP-16 negotiations were commended by many as noticeably more transparent

and inclusive of all countries.

Cancun Agreements. Copenhagen Accord is ratified.

Parties agreed to –


Cancun Climate Change Conference

•commit to a maximum temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-Industrial

levels, and to consider lowering that maximum to 1.5 degrees in the near future.

•to establish a Green Climate Fund to provide financing to projects, programs,

policies and other activities in developing countries via thematic funding windows;

- 45 BMTCO2

- 52 BMTCO2

Delta: 7 BMTCO2

- 56 BMTCO2

47% reductions beginning in 2010? Maybe 15-20% at most.

November 2011

The combined global effort to reduce emissions remains less

than half of what it needs to be to remain within a 2 degree C.

rise in temperature.

Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

1. Cooperation: Called for “the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their

participation in an effective and appropriate international response.”

• attempts to break down the divide between developed and developing countries

in order to embrace an inclusive, collective action approach.

2. Enforcement: Recognized the need to strengthen the multilateral, rules-based regime


Durban Climate Change Conference

2. Enforcement: Recognized the need to strengthen the multilateral, rules-based regime

through development of a “protocol,” with legal force under the Convention,

applicable to all Parties by 2015.

Second Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol

1. Governments of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol decided that a second commitment

period, from 2013 onwards, would seamlessly follow the end of the first commitment

period.

2. The length of the second commitment period is to be determined: either 5 or 8 years.


Qatar Climate Change Conference

Not South Korea?

Doha.

World must engage, not enrage, the Middle East and the Arab World.

CLIMATE VOTE PROJECT

Purpose: challenge worldwide governments at COP 18 to develop a comprehensive, legally Purpose: challenge worldwide governments at COP 18 to develop a comprehensive, legally

binding climate protection agreement for the time after 2012.

Objective: 10 million Facebook Users will add weight and coherence to this demand.

The Climate Vote Project demands implementation of the following points in this

successor agreement:

1. To ensure that global warming stays well below 2 degrees C., the industrialized

nations must commit themselves to far more drastic reductions in emissions than in

the first Kyoto period.

2. New agreement must include the U.S., which signed the first KP but did not ratify it.

3. Encourage India and China to take part with appropriate targets for Kyoto Phase Two.

Despite the U.S.’ weak response to international agreements . .

Don’t give up hope yet -

National, Regional and MunicipalPolicies and Programs

Executive Order 13514: Federal Leadership in

Energy, Environmental, and Economic Performance2009GOAL: Reduce TOTAL federal Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by –

28 % from a 2008 baseline by 2020.

Reduce indirect Scope 3 emissions by –

13 % from 2008 levels in the same time frame.

123.2 MMTCO2e2008 Baseline Emissions: 123.2 MMTCO2e

66.4 are subject to emissions reduction targets

18.5 MMTCO2e

But –By meeting these two goals, the federal government will, through 2020 –

•Eliminate 235 million barrels of oil

•Save $8-11 billion on avoided energy costs

2008, President Bush warned that U.S. emissions would continue to rise until 2025 . . .

Despite the Myth of U.S. Inaction -

Obama Commitment at 2009 COP 15 (Copenhagen):

17% Emissions Reductions below 2005 levels by 2020

U.S. Proposed Policies Potential Emissions Percentage below

and other Developments Reductions (MMT) 2005 levels

1 Stronger than expected recession:

2 Unexpectedly high oil prices 2 Unexpectedly high oil prices and low natural gas prices:

3 Ambitious new automobileefficiency regulations:

4 Accelerated shutdowns of coal-fired power plants

5 Policy action in California (AB 32) 91.0 – 130.0and other states

7.5%

Official Estimate: U.S. energy-related emissions to be 7.5% below 2005 levels

by 2020.

Despite the Myth of U.S. Inaction -

Additional Economic / other Events Potential Emissions Percentage belowReductions (MMT) 2005 levels

0 New Greenhouse Gas (GHG) 2.3%regulations:

0 U.S. Congress extension ofexpiring clean energy incentives,tax credits and subsidies: 0.6%

10.4%

0 Clean Energy Standard (CES) 200

0 Subsidy for residential geothermal0 Subsidy for residential geothermal

heat pumps 50

15.5%

0 Faster than expected energy-related technological development: 200

0 Continued lackluster growthby U.S. economy: 183

0 Higher than expected oil prices($200 / barrel by 2035): 127

18.9% - 24%

Carbon Tax Carbon Tax Carbon Tax Carbon Tax

or or or or

Cap and Trade?Cap and Trade?Cap and Trade?Cap and Trade?Cap and Trade?Cap and Trade?Cap and Trade?Cap and Trade?

or neither . . .

Technology

Materials

Abundant and free renewable resources

What Does America Need?

Workforce

Rapid mobilization experience

Political will?

Capital

Part of the challenge over these past three years has been that people’s

number-one priority is finding a job and paying the mortgage and dealing

with high gas prices. In that environment, it’s been easy for the other side

to pour millions of dollars into a campaign to debunk climate-change

science. I suspect that over the next six months, (climate change) is going

to be a debate that will become part of the campaign, and I will be very

clear in voicing my belief that we’re going to have to take further steps to

deal with climate change in a serious way. That there’s a way to do it that

is entirely compatible with strong economic growth and job creation – that

taking steps, for example, to retrofit buildings all across America with taking steps, for example, to retrofit buildings all across America with

existing technologies will reduce our power usage by 15 or 20 percent.

That’s an achievable goal, and we should be getting started now.

President Barack Obama

Rolling Stone interview (24 April 2012)

My view is that we don’t know what’s causing climate change on this planet.

And the idea of spending trillions and trillions of dollars to try to reduce CO2

emissions is not the right course for us.

Mitt Romney (October 2011)

The Age of Fact-free Science

53% of Americans think the effects of Global warming have already begun or will do so in a few years.

- Gallup

Fact-free Science

According to the Center for American Progress –More than half of the Republicans in the House and three-quarters of Republican senators now say that the threat of global warming, as a man-made and highly threatening phenomenon, is at best an exaggeration and at worst an utter “hoax.”

- New York Times, 25 February 2011

The Science of Truthiness: Why Conservatives Deny Global Warming

RGGI Programs include:

1. Goal

• Reach 25-40% below 1990 emissions limits by 2010

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative(RGGI)

Maine

Vermont

New Hampshire

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Connecticut

• Voluntary Program

• 10 Northeast states

• Power plants > 25 MW capacity

• Only Carbon Dioxide

• Reach 25-40% below 1990 emissions limits by 2010

• Achieved 7% below 1990 emissions by 2009

Actions -

2. Clean up power plants (led to the first cap and trade program

in the U.S.)

3. Clean Cars Program – 30% reduction in per-mile emissions by 2016

4. Energy efficiency improvements

• Resulting in $2.1 billion reductions in consumer utility bills, despite rate increases,

because of the immediate impact of energy efficiency measures

5. Expanded renewable energy – 25 MW in 2000 > 1,671 MW in 2010

Connecticut

New York

New Jersey

Maryland

Delaware

Successes –

Between 2000 and 2009, the 10 northeastern states that participate in the Regional

Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)

1. cut per capita carbon dioxide emissions by 17.9%, 20% faster than the rest of the nation

2. grew the region’s gross product per capita 87% faster than the rest of the U.S.,

with GDP increasing by 8.4%,

increased economic output by $1.6 billion ($33 per person)

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative(RGGI)

increased economic output by $1.6 billion ($33 per person)

(Environment New Jersey Research & Policy Center).

So why did Governor Chris Christie withdraw the

State of New Jersey from RGGI?

Findings –

1. large reductions in global warming pollution are possible

2. innovative regional collaborations can help make them happen

3. emission reductions can be achieved side-by-side with economic growth.

State of California

Assembly Bill 32: Global Warming Solutions Act (2006)

Set the 2020 greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal into law. Lead Agency: California Air Resources Board (ARB)

Provisions

1 Establish 1990 as baseline year

•2020 emissions forecast: 507 MMTCO2e

•1990 emissions verified at 427 MMTCO2e

80.0 MMTCO2e80.0 MMTCO2e

2 Scoping Plan (approved December 2008)

Reduction Goals:

•Pavley (AB 1493) GHG emission reductions 26.1

•advanced clean cars 4.0

•Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) – 20% by 2020 21.3

•Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) – 33% 13.4

•Low Carbon Fuel Standard 15.0

•Energy Efficiency (building, appliance, CHP, etc.) 11.9

91.7 MMTCO2e

U.S. Conference of Mayors

Climate Protection Agreement

Under the Agreement, participating cities commit to take following three actions:

1) Strive to meet or beat the Kyoto Protocol targets in their own communities, through actions ranging from anti-sprawl land-use policies to urban forest restoration projects to public information campaigns;

2)Urge their state governments, and the federal government, to enact policies and programs to meet or beat the GHG emission reduction target suggested for the United States in the Kyoto Protocol –

7% reduction from 1990 levels by 2012

3)Urge the U.S. Congress to pass the bipartisan GHG reduction legislation, which would establish a national emission trading system.

Status? Uncertain. Can’t be measured.

Cities that have signed the Conference of Mayors

Climate Protection Agreement: 1,055 (as of 21 April 2012)

85 million U.S. citizens!

Texas Signatories:

AddisonArlington

AustinCarollton

College StationCoppell

CorsicanaDallas

DentonEdinburgh

El PasoEuless

FairviewFort Worth

FriscoGarlandGarland

HurstHutto

Laguna VistaLaredo

McKinneyMount Vernon

PlanoPort Isabel

RichardsonSan Antonio

Shavano ParkSouth Padre Island

Sugar LandTexarcanaWestlake

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