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C o m m u n i t y Ed u c a t i o n S e s s i o n # 1
Jon Tuley, AICP
Senior Principal Planner
Managing Director, CATLYST
Atlanta Regional Commission
Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC)
What is the ARC?
Atlanta Region
10 County
ARC Service Areas
Area Agency on Aging
10 County
Metropolitan North GeorgiaWater Planning District
15 County
Metropolitan PlanningOrganization
20 County
Atlanta Regional Workforce Development Board
7 County
Urban AreaSecurity Initiative
5 County
Atlanta Region
4.3 M
5.2 M
Atlanta Region’s Planhttp://atlantaregionsplan.org/
Transportation – Community Development – Aging and Health
Natural Resources – Workforce Development – Economic Development
Data and Demographics
Why are demographics important to planning?
• To effectively plan for a city, we need to be able to predict any major
population and employment shifts within the city:• Number of people
• Age
• Race/ethnicity
• Housing trends
• Income
• Industries
•• Transportation system
• Water, sewer, and other city services
• Housing stock
• Economic development
What does this show?
Peak Breakup Times according to Facebook Status Updates
Adapted from TED presentation by David McCandless http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/
http://www.ted.com/talks/david_mccandless_the_beauty_of_data_visualization.html
Valentine’s Day
Spring Break
“spring clean”
Mondays?
Summer
Holiday
2 weeks before
Winter Holidays
Christmas
“too cruel”
3.
-
challenging natural
resource
complexity and
environmental
constraints
2.
Technological
Innovations are
impacting
every facet of
daily life.
1.
We are seeing
unprecedented
demographic and
social changes.
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus
0.1% - 2.2%
2.2% - 3.9%
3.9% - 5.6%
5.6% - 9.4%
9.4% - 33.5%
% Hispanic/Latino Population: 1980
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus
0.1% - 2.2%
2.2% - 3.9%
3.9% - 5.6%
5.6% - 9.4%
9.4% - 33.5%
% Hispanic/Latino Population: 1990
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus
0.1% - 2.2%
2.2% - 3.9%
3.9% - 5.6%
5.6% - 9.4%
9.4% - 33.5%
% Hispanic/Latino Population: 2000
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus
0.1% - 2.2%
2.2% - 3.9%
3.9% - 5.6%
5.6% - 9.4%
9.4% - 33.5%
% Hispanic/Latino Population: 2010
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus
0.1% - 2.2%
2.2% - 3.9%
3.9% - 5.6%
5.6% - 9.4%
9.4% - 33.5%
% Hispanic/Latino Population: Current
(2012-2016 Avg.)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
Th
ou
san
ds
Longevity Forecast for Metro Atlanta
60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85+
CHALLENGE: Building Communities that Work for All Ages and Abilities
48.5
62.6
74.8 72.5 70.1
53.1
60.8
69.2
55.3
67.9
11.8
43.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
% of Homes Affordable to Median Income Household (Q1, 2017)
Source: Housing Opportunity Index, NAHB (Q1, 2017)
U.S.
Average
Overall, Metro Atlanta is an Affordable Place
CNT – “Losing Ground”
Housing Opportunity Index, NAHB
Add in Transportation costs –
and affordability flips(For Moderate Income Family ~$47K/Annually)
Total Residential Units Authorized by Building Permit
Sources: State Of the Cities Database; ARC R&A
Switching to the housing market the number of units permitted remains significantly lower when
compared to pre-recession levels.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Jan
-03
May-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Jan
-04
May-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Jan
-05
May-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Jan
-06
May-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Jan
-07
May-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Jan
-08
May-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Jan
-09
May-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Jan
-10
May-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Jan
-11
May-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Jan
-12
May-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Jan
-13
May-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Jan
-14
May-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Jan
-15
May-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Jan
-16
May-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Jan
-17
May-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Jan
-18
May-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Metro Atlanta Residential Units Permitted, 2003-Current
2.
Technological
Innovations are
impacting
every facet of
daily life.
The Speed of Change
E-commerce will reshape retail & logistics
Robotics and machine learning
Increasing Longevity
8,870
9,670
11,520
12,530
13,680
14,650
16,620
16,820
17,180
17,270
19,920
24,420
26,670
27,500
34,930
46,830
49,890
59,980
65,430
85,800
- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders
Bill and Account Collectors
Bus Drivers (School or Special Client)
Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants
Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks
Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers
Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators
Receptionists and Information Clerks
Food Preparation Workers
Construction Laborers
Cooks (Restaurant)
Team Assemblers
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
Accountants and Auditors
Secretaries and Admin. Assistants (Except Legal, Medical, and Exec.)
Office Clerks (General)
Waiters and Waitresses
Cashiers
Combined Food Prep. and Serving Workers (Including Fast Food)
Retail Salespersons
Number of Jobs, 2016
Atlanta Metro Region:
Top 20 Employing Occupations at High Risk of Automation
3.
-
challenging natural
resource complexity
and environmental
constraints
Chattahoochee River46%
Lake Lanier(Direct)
22%
Allatoona Lake(Direct)
10%
Etowah River3%
Other Surface Water Sources
18%
Groundwater1%
Water Supply by Source
120 Years of Growth
County Age Forecasts
Chamblee Data and Demographics
Between 2010 and 2017, the
population in the City of
Chamblee grew faster than the
previous 10 years from 2000 to
2010. The significant
population growth is attributed
to the annexation of the City.
Data Source: U.S. Census American Factfinder (2000 &
2010), American Communities Survey, Annual
Population Estimate (2013-2017).
7,668 7,137
9,127 9,552 9,892
28,433
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
Population Change
Looking at the area of the
current city and historical
growth. Chamblee will grown
about 1.4% a year.
Data Source: US Census and ESRI Business Analysis
27,77326,834
28,31530,232
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2000 Total Population 2010 Total Population 2018 Total Population 2023 Total Population
Population Change with current City Limits
• In November 2010, the northern part of the City (Huntley Hills)
was annexed, adding about 4,500 residents.
• In November 2013, the area east of Clairmont Road was annexed,
adding about 12,000 residents.
•
increased by another 1,000 residents (~250 residents per year).
• Annexation has not only increased the population by threefold,
but it has also
make-up.
22%
18%
27%
14%
10%
6%3% 25%
9%
14%15%
14%
12%
11%
<15
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
At the time of the 2010 census,
the age distributions in the City
of Chamblee and the Atlanta
MSA differed. The biggest
differences were found in the
categories of individuals who
were between 15 and 24 and
between 25 and 34.
Data Source: US Census (2010)
Atlanta MSA
City of
Chamblee
Age Distribution 2010
Age Distribution 2040
Atlanta Region DeKalb County
The senior population
(aged 60+) in DeKalb
County will make up 24.7%
of the population, an
increase from 15.2% in
2015. We can assume
Chamblee’s age
distribution will skew older
in 2040.
Data Source: U.S. Census, American
Communities Survey, Annual Population Estimate
(2011-2015); Atlanta Regional Commission
While the population of White
individuals in Chamblee and in
the Atlanta MSA was similar in
2015, Chamblee had a lower
percentage of Black individuals
and a higher percentage of
Asian and Other individuals
than the Atlanta MSA.
Data Source: U.S. Census, American Communities
Survey, Annual Population Estimate (2011-2015).
61%
52%
14%
31%
8%
5%
10%
8%
4%
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Chamblee
Atlanta MSA
White Black Asian Other Race Two or More Races
Race Distribution 2015
The City of Chamblee has a
larger population of residents
with Hispanic or Latino origin
than the Atlanta MSA. Of the
39% of Hispanic or Latino
residents, 23% are Mexican.
Data Source: U.S. Census, American Communities
Survey, Annual Population Estimate (2013-2017).
Hispanic or Latino Origin 2017
11%
39%
89%
61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Atlanta MSA Chamblee
Hispanic or Latino (Any Race) Not Hispanic or Latino (Any Race)
Between 2010 and 2017,
the housing stock grew by
7,699 units and there was
an increase in vacancies
of 836 units.
Source: U.S. Census (2000 & 2010), American
Communities Survey (2013-2017).
34.60% 33.30% 37.00%
65.40%66.70% 63.00%
2.10% 11.00% 11.00%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2010 2017
Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Vacant
Housing Trends
Single Family and Multifamily Housing Distribution
Source: U.S. Census American Communities Survey
(2013-2017).
Single unit – detached
housing structures made up
36.4% of the housing units
in the City of Chamblee in
2017. The multi-family
housing with 10 or more
units made up a combined
total of about 33.7% of the
housing stock in 2017.
4171
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1-unit detached 1-unit attached 2 units 3 or 4 units
5-9 units 10-19 units 20+ units Mobile Home
Housing Characteristics 2017
Number of Transactions
620
581
565
530
540
550
560
570
580
590
600
610
620
630
2013 2017 2018
The number of transactions
for home sales in the City of
Chamblee has decreased
since 2013.
Source: Zillow 2013 - 2018
Housing Trends
Census Tract IDSale Price Per
Sq Ft (2013 )
Sale Price Per
Sq Ft (2017)
Sale Price Per
Sq Ft (2018)
13089021202 $151.77 $201.57 $205.33
13089021208 $131.55 $203.32 $225.14
13089021209 $154.78 $219.19 $252.03
13089021301 $92.60 $146.58 $164.48
13089021307 $83.60 $147.20 $163.79
13089021308 $85.25 $159.35 $168.71
13089021412 $156.91 $258.79 $282.05
Average of All
Census Tracts$122.35 $190.86 $208.79
On average, the sale price
per square foot has
increased since 2013 in all
census tracts for the City of
Chamblee
Source: Zillow 2013 - 2018
Housing Trends
Census
Tract ID
YTY Change in
Sale Price Per Sq
Ft (2017 to 2018)
YTY Percent
Change in Sale
Price Per Sq Ft
(2017 to 2018)
5 Year Change in
Sale Price Per Sq
Ft (2013 to 2018)
5 Year Percent
Change in Sale
Price Per Sq Ft
(2013 to 2018)
13089021202 $3.76 1.90% $53.56 35.30%
13089021208 $21.83 10.70% $93.59 71.10%
13089021209 $32.84 15.00% $97.25 62.80%
13089021301 $17.90 12.20% $71.88 77.60%
13089021307 $16.59 11.30% $80.18 95.90%
13089021308 $9.36 5.90% $83.46 97.90%
13089021412 $23.25 9.00% $125.14 79.80%
Average of All
Census Tracts$17.93 9% $86.44 74%
The sale price per
square foot increased
an average of 74% for
all census tracts
between 2013 and
2018.
Source: Zillow 2013 - 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Census 2000, and
2010. 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-
Year Estimates.
According to the 2000
Census and the American
Communities Survey (2015),
the median household income
in the City of Chamblee
increased between 2000 and
2015.
Income data was unavailable
for the 2010 Census.
Area Median Income
$45,992.00
$54,142.00
$40,000.00
$42,000.00
$44,000.00
$46,000.00
$48,000.00
$50,000.00
$52,000.00
$54,000.00
$56,000.00
2000 2017
Households that earned
<$49,999 made up just
under half (46.5%) of the
households in the City of
Chamblee in 2017 compared
to the Atlanta MSA where
roughly 40.6% of households
fall in that bracket.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2017 American
Community Survey 5-Year Estimates;
Atlanta MSA
City of
Chamblee
2017 Income Distribution
20%
10%
17%29%
15%
5%4%
19%
9%
13%
31%
15%
6%
7%
<$25,000
$25,000-$34,999
$35,000-$49,999
$50,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000-$199,999
$200,000+
The City of Chamblee had
a lower unemployment
rate than the Atlanta
MSA in 2017.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2017 American
Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2017)
Employment 2017
72.80%67.00%
3.80%4.70%
23.20% 33.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Chamblee Atlanta MSA
Employed Unemployed Not In Labor Force
Resident Area Characteristics
(RAC) describe the industry
that City of Chamblee
residents do for a living. The
most popular industry was
Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services in 2015.
Source: US Census Bureau, Census on the Map
Resident Area Profile Analysis, 2015.
RAC Employment Industries
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
Public Administration
Workplace Area
Characteristics (WAC)
describe the jobs that
are available within a
given study area.
Most jobs available in
the City of Chamblee
were Retail Trade
Industry.
Source: US Census Bureau, Census on the
Map Resident Area Profile Analysis 2015
WAC Employment Industries
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
Public Administration
In 2017, 59.6% of
residents from the
City of Chamblee
drove alone to work.
Source: US Census American Fact Finder ACS 2017
Selected Economic CharacteristicsDrove alone
60%
Carpooled
22%
Public
transportation
10%
Walked
3%
Other means
1%
Worked at home
4%
Drove alone Carpooled Public transportation Walked Other means Worked at home
Mode of Transportation
11% Travel 50+ Miles
15% Travel 25-50 Miles
43% Travel 10-24 Miles
30% Travel < 10 Miles
Data Source: Census on the Map, Distance Direction Analysis
Distance Traveled to Work
• 3,822 Daily Entries
• 1,149 Parking Spaces used at 47%
• Approximately 2,240 units of housing
• With 726 Under Construction (Costar)
• Average Rent- $1,599 (Costar)
• Or $1.66 per square foot for rent (Costar)
Chamblee MARTA Station Characteristics
Questions?
Jon Tuley, AICP
Senior Principal Planner
Managing Director, CATLYST
Atlanta Regional Commission
http://www.neighborhoodnexus.org/http://www.atlantaregional.org/
http://33n.atlantaregional.com/
T h a n k yo u !
Q&A