gti breakfast news 28 april 'here come the apprentices!

SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM

“Here come the apprentices!”

The Anthologist28 April


Simon RogersDirector, GTI

WELCOME


09.03.16 28.04.16 30.06.16 15.09.16 24.11.16

IDEAS WORTHKNOWING

#BNEWS16

2016 dates


#BNews16

We want to hear from you via twitter


Today’s agenda: “Here come the apprentices!”

Welcome & trendence UK research updateSimon Rogers, Director, GTI The Economic UpdateDeclan Curry, Broadcaster, Business & Economics journalist‘Pop-Up Panel’Kelly Yip, Research Manager, Havas People; Virginia Isaac, CEO, Inspiring Futures; Stephen Isherwood, CEO, AGRAmbition and skill over experienceJack Parsons, CEO, YourfeedWhat will this mean for the graduates?Rt. Hon Lord David Willetts


The Apprenticeship Levy• UK Government wants to create 3M apprenticeships by 2020• Introduction of new apprenticeship standards• April 2017 - employers with a wage bill of £3M+ will pay an annual levy of 0.5% (via PAYE) to help fund the initiative• Contributing employers will get back £15K + a 10% ‘top up’ to their monthly levy payment for apprenticeship training• Government will continue to help fund apprenticeships for employers with a wage bill less than £3M• There will be an employers NI exemption to apprentices under age of 25• Institute of Apprenticeships to be created by April 2017, body responsible for quality of apprenticeships

The Levy may lead to • Increased competition for school leavers• Graduate level roles could be classed as Level 7 apprenticeships and therefore use the funding from the levy• Work Experience programmes may increase• The 'mix' of candidates recruiters look for is likely to change• Employers will need to forge more relationships with schools and FE colleges


It does this through psychometric assessment and interpretation, guidance discussions, workshops, webspace, events and a supporting helpline

Supporting 350 schools, Inspiring Futures reaches over 20,000 students

Delivered by a network of over 80 professionally qualified careers consultants across the country

Inspiring Futures works with over 100 employers through Insight events to help students discover more about a career area


• IF and GTI have a shared vision that deepens our reach into UK schools

• No other organisation can access schools in this way

• We believe this is a great opportunity for employers• Together we will raise the importance of careers,

providing a better solution for schools, parents and young people


…60 secondupdate


Year 7

Year 13Diversity

Focus

10,000+ School Students

EveryUKRegion


Declan CurryBroadcaster, Business & Economics Journalist

THE ECONOMIC FORECAST


WATCH• Rising labour costs – Living Wage / AppL• Stalling UK job creation, unemployment - “jobs miracle” running out of steam ?• Global growth chill – China still slows• European Union referendum

- costs of staying OR going …


GROWTH FORECASTSIMF cuts 2016 forecasts for most of world …• UK: +1.9% WAS 2.2%• USA: +2.4% WAS 2.6%• Germany:+1.5% WAS 1.7%• China: +6.5% WAS 6.3% *UP* … but expected to slip further in 2017, 2018


GLOBAL GROWTH(Q4 2015, q/q revised)UK still fastest … but will fall behind USA• UK: +0.6%• USA: +0.3%• Germany / France: +0.3%• Japan: -0.3%


UK GROWTHFigs revised; economy grew slightly faster• GDP Q4 2015: +0.6% q/q vs +0.5%Weaker start feared for 2016 … • Manufacturing output: -1.8% y/y Feb 16 … but possible small revival in March• PMI: 51.0 Mar vs 50.8 Feb


PRODUCTIVITYAbility to afford future pay rises … Stagnated after credit crunch … was reviving, but may be tailing off• Output per hour: +0.4% y/y Q4 2015

vs: +1.5% y/y Q3 2015We make in 5 days, French make in 4 days


TRADE• Trade gap: £12bn Q4 2015

vs: £9bn Q3 2015• Imports (up again): £138bn Q4 2015• Exports (down again): £126bn Q4 2015Deficit in investment income also worse ...• Current account: £33bn vs £20bn


EXCHANGE RATE(31 March 2016)• £1 = $1.43 down 0.6% vs Feb

down 4.5% y/y• £1 = €1.28 down 0.3% vs Feb

* BIG CHANGE* down 8% y/y … help for UK companies selling in Europe


EMPLOYMENT• 74.1% of working population in

employment - *FRESH HIGH*• 31.42 m in work Nov 15 – Jan 16

… up 116,000 from prev quarter… up 478,000 on prev year… but lower increases than seen in

Dec.


UNEMPLOYMENT• 1.68m people unemployed Nov 15–Jan 16

… down 28,000 from prev quarter… much slower than 60,000 qtr fall in Dec… down 171,000 on prev year *FLAT*

• 5.1% of working population unemployed… unemployment rate stalled


INTERNATIONAL UNEMP(OECD, Q3 2015 – same as March slide)• Germany: 4.6%• USA: 5.2%• UK: 5.3%• France: 10.5%• Eurozone: 10.7% *NEW*


YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT(OECD, Q3 2015 – same as March slide)

• UK: 14.5%• Spain: 47.7%• Greece: 49.8%


WAGESWages still rising … (ONS, Avg Earnings) • Total: +2.1% y/y Jan ‘16

vs: +1.9% y/y Dec ’15More rises in biz; freeze continues for govt• Private sector: +2.3% y/y (vs 2.1%)• Public sector: +1.3% y/y (vs 1.3%)


PRICESPrice rises in UK getting bigger; still small!Falling prices halted in Germany & EU … relieving fears of Euro deflation• UK: +0.5% y/y Mar, vs +0.3% Feb• EU: 0.0% y/y Mar, vs -0.1% Feb• Germany:+0.1% y/y Mar, vs -0.2% Feb


HOUSING MARKET• House prices: +7.6% year Feb 15/16

ONS; rise in prices picking up speed• Home loans: 73,871 Feb ‘16

BoE; lower than Jan, +19% yearly• Housebuilding:37,080 new starts, Q4

DCLG; same figs as March slides


PERSONAL DEBT• 20,404 insolvencies Eng&Wales Q4 2015

… down 11% a year • Scotland: down 11%; NI: down 25% a year

(same figs as last presentation in March)• Household debt = 143% of income (Q4)

… at/near this level since end 2012


GOVERNMENT DEBT*New forecasts with Budget 2016*Total debts to be repaid = 84% of GDP 2014Net borrowing (ie new loans):

2016: £56bn (£6bn higher than forecast)2017: £39bn (£15bn higher than forecast)

Govt to stop borrowing new money 2018/19


MARKETS (on 14 April)

• FTSE 100 = 6365 up 3% in 1 month7% lower than value before credit crunch

• Brent Crude oil = $44 up 12% in 1 monthdown 70% from peak price in July 2008prices may slip again after no OPEC cuts

• Gold = $1,245 /oz largely unchanged


Kelly YipResearch Manager, Havas People

‘POP-UP PANEL’


Hello Persuadables


Researching PersuadablesJust under a fifth were considering both university and employment.

Four out of ten of these students changed their mind from initially more in favour of university to thinking more about employment now.

Source: Student Tracker 2015Survey: 1,729 Year 12s and 13s; 60% expected BBB or equivalent in A Level.Focus groups: 48 students + 18 parents


Persuading Persuadables

I started to research into employment opportunities, and I started weighing up the cost of university and realised is it really worth £9,000.

Doing work experience and finding out about the different school leavers programmes available at certain companies. This increased my interest and led to further research.

Attending higher education conferences and careers fairs made me more aware of the options available and their different advantages and disadvantages.


Persuaded

I realised that I can make my own decisions and not feeling as pressured by family to go to university. I discovered all of the other options which seem equally appealing.


Virginia IsaacCEO, Inspiring Futures

‘POP-UP PANEL’


Stephen IsherwoodCEO, AGR

‘POP-UP PANEL’


Jack ParsonsCEO, Yourfeed

AMBITION AND SKILL OVER EXERIENCE


Rt. Hon Lord David WillettsWHAT WILL THIS MEANFOR THE GRADUATES?


NEXT EVENT30.06.16

IDEAS WORTHKNOWING

#BNEWS16

gti breakfast news 28 april 'here come the apprentices!

Recruiting & HR