grownc scenario planning workshop presentation - july 30, 2012

www.gro-wnc.org

Workgroup Session #2Scenario Planning

July 30, 2012

Meeting Objectives & Agenda

“The future is not some place we are going to but a place we are creating. The paths to it are not found, they are made.”

– Jane Garvey

Meeting Objectives

• Integrate workgroups• Recognize complementary and competing

goals• Compare two future scenarios to see if one

achieves goals better than the other, or suggest a third scenario

Part One• Do either of the scenarios meet expectations?• What performance measures are you using to determine that?

Part Two• If not, what should a third scenario accomplish?• Are there other performance measures you are interested in?

Questions to be answered

118,000 9,217

Today’s Agenda

9:30 am Participant sign-in9:45 am Welcome9:50 am Scenario Planning Overview10:30 am Part I begins | Group scenario planning

activity11:30 pm Lunch break12:15 pm Keypad Polling on Performance Measures12:30 pm Orientation for Part II12:35 pm Part II begins | Group scenario planning

activity2:00 pm Summary discussion2:20 pm Thank you

Key Findings from the Community Meetings

http://www.gro-wnc.org/communitymeeting.html

http://www.gro-wnc.org/communitymeeting.html

Thank You! County/Jurisdiction Meeting Location Number of

AttendeesMadison Madison High

School Media Center

32

Hendersonville Hendersonville Operations Center

38

Haywood Haywood Community College

13

Buncombe Dr. Wesley Grant Sr. Southside Center

64

Transylvania Transylvania Public Library

64

16%Sixteen percent of all land in the GroWNC region is in current agriculture use according to the US Department of Agriculture.Source: USDA Agriculture Census 2007

$135mThe total market value of agriculture production in the GroWNC region was $135million in 2007.Source: USDA Agriculture Census 2007

Nat

ural

and

Rec

reati

on A

reas

Farm

s

Cons

erva

tion

Subd

ivisi

on (2

uni

ts/a

cre)

Larg

e Lo

t Hom

es (5

acr

e)

Resid

entia

l Sub

divi

sions

(1-2

uni

ts/a

cre)

Indu

stria

l and

Com

mer

cial

Smal

l Lot

Hom

es a

nd T

ownh

omes

Smal

l Dow

ntow

ns/V

illag

e Ce

nter

s

Cond

os

Dow

ntow

n As

hevi

lle

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

Preferred Not Preferred

28%68% of the region lives in a single-family detached house.Source: US Census

68%

Housing Data (US Census)

House on Several Acres32%

House on Large Lot

18%

House on Small Lot22%

Mobile Home

1%

Townhouse6%

Condo; Apartment10%

Urban Loft11%

• 68% of the region lives in a single-family detached house

• 17% of the region lives in a mobile home

• 12% lives in a multi-family structure (includes duplex, triplex, apartments, condos)

• 3% lives in a single-family attached house

Housing Preferences

28%The Arts industries in Buncombe and Transylvania Counties generated $2.6million in total local government revenue in 2010.Source: Arts and Economic Prosperity Study IV

$2.6m

$365mSummer camps in Buncombe, Henderson and Transylvania Counties generated $365 million in total economic impact to the region. Source: NC Camping Association

Introduced preferences

The City of Asheville has 132 linear miles of sidewalks.Source: City of Asheville Sidewalk Inventory

132

Over 90% of WNC imports arrive from southern ports demonstrating a heavy reliance on I-26 and other southeastern routes. Source: NCDOT Traffic Survey Unit

90%

Common Goals and Objectives

Projected Growth

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 -

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

333,519

398,502

457,948

519,674

577,277 634,337

Population

Population

Total 2040 Population = 634,337

Growth of 39%

Dwelling Units

Total 2040 Dwelling Units = 328,816

Growth of 41%

Buncombe Haywood Henderson Madison Transylvania -

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

125,479

28,275

54,713

8,471 15,906

170,558

42,969

81,359

10,109

23,821

Dwelling Units

2010 Dwelling Units 2040 Dwelling Units

45,079

14,694

26,646

1,6387,915

Employment

Total 2040 Employment= 470,642

Growth of 36%

Buncombe Haywood Henderson Madison Transylvania -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

220,909

32,864

68,788

8,004 16,671

300,780

44,273

91,355

11,245 22,990

Employment (Jobs)

2011 Employment 2040 Employment

79,871

11,028

24,921

1,8813,951

Scenario Planning

What does this growth mean for our region in 2040?

Scenario Planning:Introduction

What is Scenario Planning?

• Scenario Planning is a method for learning about the future.– Understand the potential consequences of

present-day choices.– Make wise decisions in the face of uncertainty.

How does Scenario Planning work?

• We start with a base case scenario, one that represents our future if we continue on a “business-as-usual” path, and we evaluate it relative to a subset of goals (development-related goals)

• Then we consider our options… and we create additional (or alternative) scenarios that maximize different options so that we can understand some of the consequences – intended and unintended, good and bad

• We evaluate alternatives relative to “business-as-usual” (BAU) and to each other guided by a subset of goals (development-related goals)

Together, We Create our Future

Scenario Planning:Aided by a Model

Area TypeDevelopment Density Classifications

Intensity Definition Examples in the Study Area

Very Rural Remote mountain ranges and valleys. Primarily used for timber harvesting and some farming.

Newfound Mountains, Spring Creek Mountain, Sandy Bottom (Madison Co.), Cascade Lake Area (Transylvania Co.)

Rural Sparsely settled areas. Largely farms with the

occasional rural subdivision.Large portions of Madison County, Western Henderson County

Low Density Areas where a variety of land uses occur at low densities. Primarily low density residential with occasional strip retail development, isolated industrial.

Dana, Beaumont, Montreat, Riceville

Medium Density

Areas where a variety of land uses occur. Primarily medium density residential with occasional strip retail development, isolated industrial.

Grovemont, Swannanoa Hills, Pisgah Drive in Canton, Millbrook Estates in Brevard, Dellwood in Hendersonville

Moderate Density

Areas where a variety of land uses occur at moderate densities. Some concentration of employment, generally separated and auto-oriented. Includes smaller towns, and villages that serve as nodes of activity in rural areas.

North Brevard, Black Mountain, Weaverville, Mars Hill, Maggie Valley

High DensityAreas where a variety of land uses occur at the highest densities in the region. Generally found in established core areas such as county seats. These are the most pedestrian and transit friendly areas in the region. High concentration of employment.

Asheville, Waynesville, Hendersonville

Source: Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company

Very Rural RuralLow

Density Medium Density

Moderate Density

High Density

Newfound Mountains

Barnardsville and the Ivy Creek

Valley

Montreat, Riceville

Grovemont, Dellwood in

Hendersonville

Downtown Mars Hill

Downtown Asheville

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 -

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

333,519

398,502 457,948

519,674 577,277

634,337

Population

Developing the Model Growth Forecasts(Control Totals)

Existing Development (Land Use Inventory)

Land Supply (Available Land)

Suitability by Land Use Type

Development Policies

Growth Allocation

Scenario Planning:Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario

• Honors adopted local plans• Growth follows current trends, occurring

where land is most suitable

Business As Usual Scenario

Scenario Planning:Performance Measures

Common Goals and Objectives

Evaluation of BAU

41%

Scenario Planning:Alternative Scenario

Alternatives- A new path forward

Redistribution of growth coming to the region

Guided by your goals and priorities

Energy Natural Resources

Economic Development

• Assumes a policy of protection for prime industry and agricultural lands

Alternative Scenario #1

Comparison: BAU vs. Alternative 1

41%

Today’s Work Session

Objectives

• Integrate workgroups• Recognize complementary and competing

goals• Compare two future scenarios to see if one

achieves goals better than the other, or suggest a third scenario

Explanation of Tools

• Performance Measures (table)– 11x17 (individual worksheet)– 24x36 (group)

• Maps– Current Year– BAU– Alternative 1

• Existing conditions maps • Other resource materials• Markers, stickers, etc.

• Where you live/work• Review Performance Measure Handout• Evaluate the BAU• Evaluate Alternative 1• Questions to Answer:

– Do either of the scenarios meet expectations?– What performance measures are you using to determine that?

Part One

Where you live, where you work.

Where you Live

Where you Work

Review of Performance Measures Handout

Circle which performance

measures best represent your

priorities.

Evaluate the BAU

Evaluate Alternative 1

• Create a new scenario• Questions to Answer:

– What should a third scenario accomplish?– Are there other performance measures you

are interested in?

Part Two

118,000 9,217

Yellow Dot = Housing

Red Dot = Jobs

Dark Green Dot = Protected

Light Green Dot = Rural/Farm

Create a new Scenario.

Distribute Growth & Protect Areas

Where is there room for improvement?

What performance

measures MUST be improved? 50%

Are there other performance measures you are interested in?

THANK YOU!!!

Contact us [email protected]

www.gro-wnc.org

grownc scenario planning workshop presentation - july 30, 2012

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