qer smt scenario planning workshop
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QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop. by Professor Ron Johnston 28 April 2009 Brisbane. QER faces a future marked by uncertainty, complexity and change. Structure of the global economy Extent and impact of potential climate change Range of responses to growing oil scarcity - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop
by Professor Ron Johnston28 April 2009
Brisbane
QER faces a future marked by
uncertainty, complexity and change • Structure of the global economy
• Extent and impact of potential climate change
• Range of responses to growing oil scarcity
• New technologies with high impact on supply and demand for energy
• Conflict between economic and environmental values
• State, national and international legislation and policies
Foresight
Assisting organisations to think systematically about the future so they can develop robust strategies for it by:
– Understanding what types of futures might be possible
– Challenging presumptions
– Building greater resilience into strategy
Differentiating Foresight
Action-oriented [vs. ‘contemplative’ (passive)]
Participatory [vs. non-participatory]
Alternative futures [vs. a single future state]
Probable, possible and preferred futures
Basic types of dialogue in a Foresight exercise
Diagnosis Prognosis Prescription
Understanding where we are…Understanding where we are…
Exploring what could happen…Exploring what could happen…
Debating what we would like to happen…
Deciding what should be done …
Debating what we would like to happen…
Deciding what should be done …
Structured stakeholder dialogueStructured stakeholder dialogue
Tool Future Time-horizon (years)
Expert Vs Participative
Strategic Planning Preferred 1-3 E+
Trend Analysis Probable 2-5 E++
Horizon Scanning Possible 2-5 E + P
Panel/Inquiry Preferred 2-5 E + P
Roadmapping Preferred 3-7 E++
Delphi Polling Probable 5-15 E++
Scenario Planning Possible 5-50 E + P++
Modelling Probable 5-50 E++
Scenario Planning Avoids the incrementalism of traditional planning
TIME
GO
AL
What should we do today?Where we
are now
Where do we need to be 15-20 years
from now?
Anticipating
TIME
GO
AL
Where we are now
Where can we be next year?
And the next?…
Incrementalism
Versus
Annual Planning Scenario Planning
Avoiding Limitations
We will:
MasterPlan
CoreStrategies
Today
Today
Most LikelyFuture
AlternativeFutures
Instead of:
…A set of core strategies, but not a single “grand strategy”…
Developing Future Scenarios
The “Planning Space”Key Global Affairs
Mission Drivers
Energy
Economy
Education
Trade
Regional Conflict
Technology
Demographics
Health & Disease
Fiscal Health
Ethics
Derive Key Forces For Change (Dimensions) Outside Direct Control
Set the Boundary Conditions
of the Planning Space
Scenarios Selected to Capture The Range of Planning Uncertainty
Evergreen II Scenarios
Profits & Principles
Congagement
Asian Way
Lockdown
Future OperatingEnvironments
Be Careful What You Wish For
USCGExpertise
(Workshop)
Immersion inFuture “Worlds”
Optimal USCGStrategies
Set ofRobust
Strategies
Scenario Planning
A scenario is a ‘story’ illustrating visions of possible future or aspects of possible future.. Scenarios are not predictions about the future but rather simulations of some possible futures. They are used both as an exploratory method or a tool for decision-making, mainly to highlight the discontinuities from the present and to reveal the choices available and their potential consequences
Elements of Scenario Planning
1. Identify the focal issue 2. Identification and analysis of the
drivers 3. Rank by importance and uncertainty4. Selecting scenario parameters5. Writing the scenarios6. ‘Back-casting’ to identify key
interventions
Economic Drivers
Resumed economic growth High energy demand from China, India Strong drive for alternate fuels Commodity prices soar again
Truncated economic growth High oil prices constrain economic recovery Capital availability limited
Environmental Drivers
Strong environmental pressures High range climate change Copenhagen sets tough ETS requirements –
targets to decarbonise economies Major investment in climate change
Moderate environmental pressures Low range climate change Increasing doubt about greenhouse science Priority to create jobs
High range climate change
Technological Drivers
Major advances in supply technology Efficiency of oil extraction doubled through
application of biological agents Electric car production soars based on new
battery technologyMajor advances in demand technology Energy management industry booming with
new products and services High efficiency cars dominate global
production
Political Drivers
Market based approaches High level of taxation on road use Private sector investment drives alternate fuel
developmentInterventionist approaches Major government investment in alternate fuel
development Governments strongly influenced by
environmental pressures
Social/Values Drivers
Values dominated by environmental concerns
Hydrocarbon anathema Large decrease in transport of goodsValues dominated by economic concerns Environmental extremism rejected in favour of
jobs and community well-being
alternate fuels