8/4/2019 Greenpath's Weekly Mortgage Newsletter - 8/28/2011

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/greenpaths-weekly-mortgage-newsletter-8282011 1/1

 

Week of

August 28,2011

MortgageMarket

Commentary

Mortgage rates moved slightly upward last week, after another week with significant volatility

Concerns over the Obama administration’s new focus on new or re-tooled refinancing likely helped

nudge rates upward, along with some money flowing out of the relative safety of various US bondsThe US Fed’s annual retreat in Wyoming left the financial community with little specifics on what the

Fed might do, but Fed Chair Bernanke properly pointed out that much of what needs to be done to

stimulate the economy lies outside the Fed, and with policy makers in Washington and Europe.

This week could be another volatile week for mortgage rates with significant economic data due

never-ending politics, and the aftermath of Irene. We could easily see mortgage rates nudge back

downward if the ISM Manufacturing Index slips below 50, indicating manufacturing is beginning to

contract. However, if Irene’s impact is seen as manageable, and Friday’s unemployment repor

reveals some unexpected strength in the labor market, rates might move upward as the week ends.

   M  o  r   t  g  a  g  e   R  a

   t  e  s

2.75%

3.25%

3.75%

4.25%

4.75%

6/9 6/23 7/7 7/21 8/4 8/18

30Yr 15Yr 1Yr ARM

 

   D  o  w    J

  o  n  e  s

10,500.00

11,000.00

11,500.00

12,000.00

12,500.00

3 -J un 17 -J un 1- Jul 1 5- Jul 29 -J ul 1 2- Au g 2 6- A

This Week’s Top Economic Reports and Events

Interest Rates and IndexesMortgage RateTrends 1 Yr T-Bill 0.110% 11th D. COFI 1.338%

Short-Term   10 Yr T-Note 2.170% COSI 2.210%

Long-Term   6 Month Libor 0.480% CODI 0.266%

Volatility High Prime Rate 3.250% MTA 0.243%

   H   i  s   t  o  r   i  c  a   l   R  a   t  e  s

0.00

3.00

6.00

9.00

Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10

1 Yr CMT MTA COFICODI Prime

10 Year Treasury Note Trend

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3-Jun 17-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 29-Jul 12-Aug 26-Aug

10 Year Treasury Note 20 Day Moving Ave 

T o R e c e i v e T h i s N e w s l e t t e r

f r o m y o u r H o m e M o r t g a g e

C o n s u l t a n t , P l e a s e C o n t a c t

T h e m D i r e c t l y

26800 Aliso Viejo Pkwy, Suite 100, Aliso Viejo, CA 92656

  Report/Event Date Prior Est. Impact 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 8/30 Moderate

If these minutes reveal more dissent than has been revealed by the Fed so

far, rates are likely to feel some downward pressure.

Consumer Confidence 8/30 59.5 52.5 Significant

Consumers just can’t catch a break. With housing and jobs suffering, the

more Confidence drops, the greater the downward pressure felt by rates.

ISM Manufacturing Index 9/1 50.9 48.7 Significant

With expectations of a drop below 50, a reading over 50 might create a

slight amount of upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Unemployment Report 9/2 9.1% 9.1% Significant

If Consumer Confidence drops appreciably, and the unemployment raterises, then mortgage rates are likely to begin moving downward.

Nonfarm Payrolls 9/2 117K 65K Significant

The longer we stretch into this recovery, the more critical job growth

becomes. An increase over 100K would likely pressure rates upward.

Weekly Mortgage Newsletter

 provided to you by