8/4/2019 Greenpath's Weekly Mortgage Newsletter - 8/28/2011
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Week of
August 28,2011
MortgageMarket
Commentary
Mortgage rates moved slightly upward last week, after another week with significant volatility
Concerns over the Obama administration’s new focus on new or re-tooled refinancing likely helped
nudge rates upward, along with some money flowing out of the relative safety of various US bondsThe US Fed’s annual retreat in Wyoming left the financial community with little specifics on what the
Fed might do, but Fed Chair Bernanke properly pointed out that much of what needs to be done to
stimulate the economy lies outside the Fed, and with policy makers in Washington and Europe.
This week could be another volatile week for mortgage rates with significant economic data due
never-ending politics, and the aftermath of Irene. We could easily see mortgage rates nudge back
downward if the ISM Manufacturing Index slips below 50, indicating manufacturing is beginning to
contract. However, if Irene’s impact is seen as manageable, and Friday’s unemployment repor
reveals some unexpected strength in the labor market, rates might move upward as the week ends.
M o r t g a g e R a
t e s
2.75%
3.25%
3.75%
4.25%
4.75%
6/9 6/23 7/7 7/21 8/4 8/18
30Yr 15Yr 1Yr ARM
D o w J
o n e s
10,500.00
11,000.00
11,500.00
12,000.00
12,500.00
3 -J un 17 -J un 1- Jul 1 5- Jul 29 -J ul 1 2- Au g 2 6- A
This Week’s Top Economic Reports and Events
Interest Rates and IndexesMortgage RateTrends 1 Yr T-Bill 0.110% 11th D. COFI 1.338%
Short-Term 10 Yr T-Note 2.170% COSI 2.210%
Long-Term 6 Month Libor 0.480% CODI 0.266%
Volatility High Prime Rate 3.250% MTA 0.243%
H i s t o r i c a l R a t e s
0.00
3.00
6.00
9.00
Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10
1 Yr CMT MTA COFICODI Prime
10 Year Treasury Note Trend
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3-Jun 17-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 29-Jul 12-Aug 26-Aug
10 Year Treasury Note 20 Day Moving Ave
T o R e c e i v e T h i s N e w s l e t t e r
f r o m y o u r H o m e M o r t g a g e
C o n s u l t a n t , P l e a s e C o n t a c t
T h e m D i r e c t l y
26800 Aliso Viejo Pkwy, Suite 100, Aliso Viejo, CA 92656
Report/Event Date Prior Est. Impact
FOMC Meeting Minutes 8/30 Moderate
If these minutes reveal more dissent than has been revealed by the Fed so
far, rates are likely to feel some downward pressure.
Consumer Confidence 8/30 59.5 52.5 Significant
Consumers just can’t catch a break. With housing and jobs suffering, the
more Confidence drops, the greater the downward pressure felt by rates.
ISM Manufacturing Index 9/1 50.9 48.7 Significant
With expectations of a drop below 50, a reading over 50 might create a
slight amount of upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Unemployment Report 9/2 9.1% 9.1% Significant
If Consumer Confidence drops appreciably, and the unemployment raterises, then mortgage rates are likely to begin moving downward.
Nonfarm Payrolls 9/2 117K 65K Significant
The longer we stretch into this recovery, the more critical job growth
becomes. An increase over 100K would likely pressure rates upward.
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