8/7/2019 Greenpath's Weekly Mortgage Newsletter - 3/7/2011

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Week of

March 6,2011

MortgageMarket

Commentary

As economic growth seems to be gaining a stronger footing, with inflationary pressures almost certain

to rise, mortgage rates will eventually increase. However, global geopolitical concerns and increasing

oil prices have helped push mortgage rates downward for the last two weeks. Last weeks econominews was very upbeat. The unemployment rate fell again to 8.9%, with almost 200K jobs added las

month. The ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 61.4%, the highest level since 2004, and the ISM

Services Index jumped to 59.4%, the highest reading since 2005.

This week is much lighter in terms of economic data, with only one significant report due. Retai

Sales is due to be released on Friday. For the first part of the week, stocks markets and technica

issues may be more of a driver of rates. If international tensions continue to increase, rates migh

move downward a bit. However, positive retail sales data on Friday would most likely reverse any

downward movement in rates during week, especially if sales growth was greater than 1.0%.

MortgageRa

tes

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

12/1 6 12/30 1 /1 3 1/27 2/10 2 /24

30Yr 15Yr 1Yr ARM

DowJones

11,250.00

11,500.00

11,750.00

12,000.00

12,250.00

12,500.00

8 -De c 2 2- De c 5- Jan 19 -Ja n 2- Fe b 16 -F eb 2- Mar

This Weeks Top Economic Reports and Events

Interest Rates and IndexesMortgage RateTrends 1 Yr T-Bill 0.270% 11th D. COFI 1.484%

Short-Term 10 Yr T-Note 3.460% COSI 2.220%Long-Term 6 Month Libor 0.463% CODI 0.319%

Volatility High Prime Rate 3.250% MTA 0.312%

HistoricalRates

0.00

3.00

6.00

9.00

Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10

1 Yr CMT MTA COFICODI Prime

10 Year Treasury Note Trend

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

8-Dec 22-Dec 5-Jan 19-Jan 2-Feb 16-Feb 2-Mar

10 Year Treasury Note 20 Day Moving Ave

T o R e c e i v e T h i s N e w s l e t t e r

f r o m y o u r H o m e M o r t g a g e

C o n s u l t a n t , P l e a s e C o n t a c t

T h e m D i r e c t l y

26800 Aliso Viejo Pkwy, Suite 100, Aliso Viejo, CA 92656

Report/Event Date Prior Est. Impact

Consumer Credit 3/7 6.1B 3.3B Limited

Consumers are beginning to be more confident in borrowing. The more

credit increases, the more upward pressure rates will experience.

Weekly Jobless Claims 3/10 368K 382K Limited

The longer this reading stays below 400K, the more upward pressure

rates will feel, with even more upward pressure below 350K.

International Trade Balance 3/10 -40.6B -41.5B Limited

If the trade gap shrinks rather than grows, we could see some very minor

upward pressure experienced by mortgage rates.

Retail Sales 3/11 0.3% 1.0% Significant

Consumers are showing signs of confidence. If that falters, and sales diprather than rise, rates will experience some downward pressure.

U of Mich. Consumer Sentiment 3/11 77.5 76.5 Moderate

With so many signs pointing toward economic strength, a surprise

revision upward would help generate more upward pressure on rates.

Weekly Mortgage Newsletter

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