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8/7/2019 Greenpath's Weekly Mortgage Newsletter - 3/7/2011
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Week of
March 6,2011
MortgageMarket
Commentary
As economic growth seems to be gaining a stronger footing, with inflationary pressures almost certain
to rise, mortgage rates will eventually increase. However, global geopolitical concerns and increasing
oil prices have helped push mortgage rates downward for the last two weeks. Last weeks econominews was very upbeat. The unemployment rate fell again to 8.9%, with almost 200K jobs added las
month. The ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 61.4%, the highest level since 2004, and the ISM
Services Index jumped to 59.4%, the highest reading since 2005.
This week is much lighter in terms of economic data, with only one significant report due. Retai
Sales is due to be released on Friday. For the first part of the week, stocks markets and technica
issues may be more of a driver of rates. If international tensions continue to increase, rates migh
move downward a bit. However, positive retail sales data on Friday would most likely reverse any
downward movement in rates during week, especially if sales growth was greater than 1.0%.
MortgageRa
tes
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
12/1 6 12/30 1 /1 3 1/27 2/10 2 /24
30Yr 15Yr 1Yr ARM
DowJones
11,250.00
11,500.00
11,750.00
12,000.00
12,250.00
12,500.00
8 -De c 2 2- De c 5- Jan 19 -Ja n 2- Fe b 16 -F eb 2- Mar
This Weeks Top Economic Reports and Events
Interest Rates and IndexesMortgage RateTrends 1 Yr T-Bill 0.270% 11th D. COFI 1.484%
Short-Term 10 Yr T-Note 3.460% COSI 2.220%Long-Term 6 Month Libor 0.463% CODI 0.319%
Volatility High Prime Rate 3.250% MTA 0.312%
HistoricalRates
0.00
3.00
6.00
9.00
Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10
1 Yr CMT MTA COFICODI Prime
10 Year Treasury Note Trend
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
8-Dec 22-Dec 5-Jan 19-Jan 2-Feb 16-Feb 2-Mar
10 Year Treasury Note 20 Day Moving Ave
T o R e c e i v e T h i s N e w s l e t t e r
f r o m y o u r H o m e M o r t g a g e
C o n s u l t a n t , P l e a s e C o n t a c t
T h e m D i r e c t l y
26800 Aliso Viejo Pkwy, Suite 100, Aliso Viejo, CA 92656
Report/Event Date Prior Est. Impact
Consumer Credit 3/7 6.1B 3.3B Limited
Consumers are beginning to be more confident in borrowing. The more
credit increases, the more upward pressure rates will experience.
Weekly Jobless Claims 3/10 368K 382K Limited
The longer this reading stays below 400K, the more upward pressure
rates will feel, with even more upward pressure below 350K.
International Trade Balance 3/10 -40.6B -41.5B Limited
If the trade gap shrinks rather than grows, we could see some very minor
upward pressure experienced by mortgage rates.
Retail Sales 3/11 0.3% 1.0% Significant
Consumers are showing signs of confidence. If that falters, and sales diprather than rise, rates will experience some downward pressure.
U of Mich. Consumer Sentiment 3/11 77.5 76.5 Moderate
With so many signs pointing toward economic strength, a surprise
revision upward would help generate more upward pressure on rates.
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