• Goal– To predict violent nonsexual crimes in the city of St.

Louis for 2011. • Specifically Unlawful Murders

• Scope– Murders, Aggravated Assaults and Robberies for • The city of St. Louis • Year 2011

Project Overview

Predictors and Methods Used

Predictors• St. Louis city crime data for years 2005 – 2010• US Census data for year 2000 • Abandoned Building data for years 2005-2010

Methods• Regression • Averaging • Quantitative Mapping

Predictors and Methods Used

0 To .67 Green

.67 To 2.17 Yellow

2.18 To 4.5 Orange4.6 To 9 Red

Avg Murders for Years 2005-2010

Avg Robberies for Years 2005-2010

1 To 20 Green21 To 39 Yellow40 To 78 Orange79+ Red

Avg Murders for Years 2005-2010

0 To .67 Green

.67 To 2.17 Yellow

2.18 To 4.5 Orange4.6 To 9 Red

Avg Agg Assaults for Years 2005-2010

1 To 29 Green30 To 55 Yellow56 To 100 Orange101+ Red

1 To 17 Green18 To 78 Yellow

82 To 248 Orange300+ Red

Avg Abandoned Buildings for Years 2005-2010

0 To .67 Green

.67 To 2.17 Yellow

2.18 To 4.5 Orange4.6 To 9 Red

Avg Murders for Years 2005-2010

Predictors and Methods UsedCorrelation Factors Considered

The Regression Equation

• # of Murders = -0.208+0.033(Agg Assult)+0.00614(Abn Bld) -0.00758(Robbery)+0.00614(Unemp%)

• R = 77% R2 = 78% which means there is a 78% change in murders due to our predictors

– Robberies and Assaults Weighted by Year • .5 for 2010• .3 for 2009• .2 for 2008

– Abandoned Buildings from 2010– Unemployment from Census Data

North Hamp-

ton

Riverview

Soulard Ellen-dale

Lin-den-wood Park

Franz Park

Hi-Point

Comp-ton

Heights

De-Baliviere Place

Wydown-

Skinker

Kings Oak

Murder

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Robbery/10

1.34 0.23 3.68 0.74 0.92 0.56 0.32 0.51 2.32 0.0800000000000001

0.16

Agg As-saults/20

0.975 0.205 0.715 0.505 0.51 0.26 0.325 0.31 0.415 0.205 0.15

Abandoned Builds /20

0.2 0.05 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

%Unemployment

3.78 17.74 3.57 2.43 2.86 5.89 3.3 4.73 6.08 2.36 1.9

13579

11131517

MurderRobbery/10

Agg Assaults/20Abandoned Builds /20

%Unemployment

The Fewest Murders

Lewis Place

Carr Square

Tower Grove East

The Gate

District

Tiffany La Salle Colum-bus

Square

Botani-cal

Heights

Foun-tain

Park

Marine Villa

Patch

Murder 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Rob-bery/10

2.48 3.24 5.93 1.53 1.01 1.2 1.46 0.58 2.12 2.14 1.18

Agg As-saults/20

2.71 2.89 2.455 1.4 0.87 0.59 2.17 0.52 2.325 2.455 1.81

Aban-doned Builds /20

4.45 0.1 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.05 0.05 2.65 2.6 2.6 1.35

%Unemploy-ment

15.47 21.12 9.95 15.09 6.11 12.89 30.49 25.06 22.48 9.99 11.8

2.5

7.5

12.5

17.5

22.5

27.5

32.5

MurderRobbery/10

Agg Assaults/20Abandoned Builds /20

%Unemployment

The Median

Jeff Van-derlou

Wells-Goodfel-

low

Baden Mark Twain

Kingsway West

O'Fallon Fair-ground

Penrose Hyde Park

The Greater

Ville

Mur-der

9.1 8.3 6.8 6.7 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.1 5

Rob-bery/10

8.09 8.33 7.56 4.34 3.01 4.96 2.95 5.32 2.38 6.82

Agg As-saults/20

9.185 8.36000000000

001

6.3 4.97 4.17 7.725 3.61 6.895 2.825 9.635

Abandoned Builds /20

12.85 18.05 8.65 5.45 3.5 9.8 8.6 7.8 20.85 19.65

%Unemployment

19.51 23.01 14.24 17.2 14.76 15.54 26.99 12.04 20.37 18.15

2.5

7.5

12.5

17.5

22.5

27.5

MurderRobbery/10

Agg Assaults/20Abandoned Builds /20

%Unemployment

The Most Murders

2011 Murder Map

•This Map Represents 147 Murders

0 To 1.03 Green

1.04 To2.19 Yellow

2.20 To 4.38 Orange

4.39 To 8.34 Red

Past Years Murder Totals:2010 - 143 2009 - 142 2008 - 162 2007 - 134 2006 - 125 2005 - 129

Neighborhood 3 Yr Weighted Avg 6 Yr Avg PredictionAcademy 3 3 3Baden 7 6 5Benton Park 0 1 1Benton Park West 3 3 3Bevo Mill 0 1 2Botanical Heights 1 1 1Boulevard Heights 0 0 0Carondelet 2 2 2Carr Square 1 2 2Central West End 2 1 1Cheltenham 1 0 0Clayton-Tamm 1 0 0Clifton Heights 0 0 0College Hill 4 4 4Columbus Square 1 1 2Compton Heights 0 0 0Covenant-Blu/Grand Ctr 1 1 2DeBaliviere Place 0 0 0Downtown 2 2 2

Murders By Neighborhood

Neighborhood 3 Yr Weighted Avg 6 Yr Avg PredictionDowntown West 3 2 2Dutchtown 5 4 6Ellendale 0 0 0Fairground 6 4 3Forest Park SE 0 1 2Fountain Park 1 2 2Fox Park 1 1 1Franz Park 0 0 0Gravois Park 3 3 4Hamilton Heights 4 5 3Hi-Point 0 0 0Holly Hills 1 0 0Hyde Park 5 5 4Jeff Vanderlou 9 8 7Kings Oak 0 0 0Kingsway East 3 4 4Kingsway West 6 4 3La Salle 1 1 0Lafayette Square 0 0 0

Murders By Neighborhood

Neighborhood 3 Yr Weighted Avg 6 Yr Avg Prediction

Lewis Place 1 2 2Lindenwood Park 0 0 0Marine Villa 1 1 2Mark Twain 7 6 4Mark Twain I-70 Ind. 3 2 2McKinley Heights 0 1 1Midtown 1 1 2Mount Pleasant 1 1 1Near N. Riverfront 2 1 2North Hampton 0 0 0North Point 4 2 1North Riverfront 0 0 0O'Fallon 6 7 6Old North St. Louis 3 2 2Patch 1 1 1Peabody-Darst-Webbe 1 1 1Penrose 5 5 5Princeton Heights 1 0 0Riverview 0 0 0

Murders By Neighborhood

Neighborhood 3 Yr Weighted Avg 6 Yr Avg PredictionShaw 0 0 0Skinker-DeBaliviere 0 0 0Soulard 0 0 0South Hampton 0 0 0Southwest Garden 0 0 1St. Louis Hills 1 0 0St. Louis Place 3 2 2The Gate District 1 1 1The Greater Ville 5 6 8The Hill 0 0 0The Ville 3 3 3Tiffany 1 1 0Tower Grove East 1 1 1Tower Grove South 2 2 2Vandeventer 3 2 2Visitation Park 0 0 0Walnut Park East 3 5 4Walnut Park West 2 5 3Wells-Goodfellow 8 9 7

Murders By Neighborhood

Neighborhood 3 Yr Weighted Avg 6 Yr Avg PredictionWest End 5 4 4Wydown-Skinker 0 0 0

Murders By Neighborhood

Data Sources

• St. Louis Metro police depthttp://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html

• St. Louis City Interactive Mapping http://stlcin.missouri.org/mapportal/

• Geo St. Louis

http://stlcin.missouri.org/citydata/newdesign/statsselector.cfm?type=data&geo=neigh