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© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute
Global Technology Outlook 2006
IBM Software Group | Tivoli software
2
Research and Development Laboratories
? Austin
Fujisawa
Yasu
? Beijing
? Delhi
Boeblingen
? ZurichLa Gaude ? Tokio
Yamato
? HaifaTucson
San Jose? Almaden
Santa Teresa
? ResearchHardware DevelopmentSoftware DevelopmentHardware and Software Development
Bangalore
Dublin
Hursley
Greenock
Rome
Endicott
East Fishkill
Burlington
Poughkeepsie
? Yorktown HeightsToronto
Rochester
Boulder
Raleigh
?Krakow
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 3
History of Innovations
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 4
U.S. Patent Leadership
800
1300
1800
2300
2800
3300
3800
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 5
Global Technology Outlook
“I think there is a world marketfor maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. ”
Popular Mechanics, 1949
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. ”
Ken Olsen, founder of DEC, 1977
“640K ought to be enough for anybody. ”
Bill Gates, 1981
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 6
GTO Genetic Map
TechnologyTechnology
SW Dependability
SW Dependability Post 9/11Post 9/11 SW Quality/
SecuritySW Quality/
Security
StorageStorageModular SystemsModular Systems
Virtual IdentityVirtual Identity
Technology & Systems
Technology & Systems
Continual Optimization
Continual Optimization
Optimize to Survive
Optimize to Survive
Data & AnalyticsData &
Analytics
Characteristics of On DemandCharacteristics of On Demand
Embedded Software
Embedded SoftwarePervasivePervasivePervasivePervasive
Intelligent Infrastructure
Intelligent Infrastructure UtilitiesUtilities AutonomicAutonomic
Dynamic e-Business
Dynamic e-Business
Next Gen Web
Next Gen Web
On-Demand FrameworkOn-Demand FrameworkSW LayersSW Layers
Speak to ITSpeak to IT
Innovation in Services
Innovation in Services
Enterprise SW
Enterprise SW
Technology & Systems
Technology & Systems
MetadataMetadata
TechnologyTechnology TechnologyTechnology TechnologyTechnology
Legislation & Data
Legislation & Data
Stochastic Analysis &
Optimization
Stochastic Analysis &
Optimization
Pervasive Connectivity
Pervasive Connectivity
Architecture of BusinessArchitecture of Business
Intelligent InformationIntelligent
Information
People ProxiesPeople Proxies
TechnologyTechnology
Optimized Systems
Optimized Systems
Services 2.0Services 2.0
SW Evolution
SW Evolution
Event-Driven World
Event-Driven World
7
© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute
Technology Update
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 8
Passive Power Continues to Explode
?Power components:? Active power
? Passive power
• Sub-threshold leakage (source-drain leakage)
? Gate leakage
Po
wer
Den
sity
(W
/cm
2 )
0.010.110.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
Gate Length (microns)
Active Power
Passive Power
1994 2005
Gate Length (microns)
Gate Leakage
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 9
Approaches to Overcome the Limits
LithographyCooling
Layout
Immersion Lithography
Innovation
Ultra-thin SOI
High K – Metal Gate Strained Silicon
Hitachi: Water cooled notebookJuly 2002
12-22 nm
Heavily doped, ultra-thin body
Micro-channel cooler
Contacts further from junction
Stress liner overlap increased
Speed optimized
29.5 nm Resolution
Materials& Structures
Silicon Germanium
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 10
Improving Performance
0.18um 0.13um 90nm 65nm
Technology Generation
0
20
40
60
80
100
Rel
ativ
e G
ain
in P
erfo
rman
ce
Innovation Scaling
? No longer possible by scaling alone? New Device Structures
? New Device Design point
? New Materials
Before 90’s1hydrogen
H
5
boron
B
8
oxygen
O
15
phosphorus
P14
silicon
Si
33
arsenic
As
13
aluminum
Al
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 11
Improving Performance
0.18um 0.13um 90nm 65nm
Technology Generation
0
20
40
60
80
100
Rel
ativ
e G
ain
in P
erfo
rman
ce
Innovation Scaling
? No longer possible by scaling alone? New Device Structures
? New Device Design point
? New Materials
Before 90’s1hydrogen
H
5
boron
B
8
oxygen
O
15
phosphorus
P14
silicon
Si
33
arsenic
As
13
aluminum
Al
Since the 90’s 7
nitrogen
N
9
fluorine
F
32germanium
Ge
22Ti22titanium
Ti
73Ta73tantalum
Ta
29
copper
Cu
29tungsten
W
17
chlorine
Cl
39yttrium
Y40
zirconium
Zr
72hafnium
Hf
23vanadium
V
41niobium
Nb
24chromium
Cr
42molybdenum
Mo
21scandium
Sc
75Rhenium
Re
43ruthenium
Ru
77iridium
Ir
45rhodium
Rh
27cobalt
Co
78platinum
Pt
45palladium
Pd
28nickel
Ni
57lanthanium
La
58cerium
Ce59
Praeseodymium
Pr
60neodymium
Nd62
samarium
Sm
63europlum
Eu
64gadollinium
Gd65
terbium
Tb66
dysprosium
Dy67
holmium
Ho
68erbium
Er69
thullium
Tm70
ytterbium
Yb
20calcium
Ca
38strontium
Sr
56barium
Ba
12magnesium
Mg
Beyond 2006
35Br35Bromine
Br30zinc
Zn
83bismuth
Bi
6carbon
C
2
helium
He
54
xenon
Xe
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 12
Moving to an Ultra-Low Voltage Operating Point
~10x
~3x
~10x
~3x
1E+12 1E+13 1E+14 1E+15 1E+16
Total Logic Transitions / sec
0.1
1
10
Load
ed S
witc
hing
Ene
rgy
(fJ)
Energy vs Performance
10X power reduction for only 3X performance penaltyOperating point of today's
high perf. MPUs @ ~ 1V
Optimal power / performancepoint @ ~ 0.5V
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 13
Transition to 3D CMOS
Year of Announcement1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mod
ule
Hea
t Flu
x(w
atts
/cm
2 )
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Bipolar
CMOS
? Op
po
rtu
nit
yfo
r 3D
Si
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 14
Random Local Variability is Becoming Increasingly Significant
Lot 1 Lot n
?Lot/wafer non-uniformity
?Tool/process variation
? In-line monitoring and process control
?Across chip variation (e.g., ACLV)
?Density effects
?Process and design compensation
?Convolution of multiple sources
?Design for robustness to variation
SystematicLocal
Global
RandomLocal
RandomRandom
Node
Variability ofMature Technology
120 nm 90 nm 65 nm 45 nm
Systematic
SystematicGlobalGlobal
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Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 15
AutonomicInfrastructure
Active Approach to Design for Variability: Autonomic Infrastructure
High-level Inputs
Workloadsimulation of
bandwidthdynamics
Analysis ofprocess
variability andnoise sources
SYSTEM IMPACT:
Monitor / Analyze / Plan / Execute (MAPE)
?Dynamic Performance/Power Optimization?Reliability Improvement?Yield Enhancement
Circuit/Macro Level
Chip/Module/Card/Rack Level
Simple Protocol
FirmwareCalls
CircuitBuildingBlocks
Hierarchical Control Data Exchange Layer
Fast loop
Intermediate loop
Slow loop
System Performance Request
Circuit
System Monitoring
Controller
Actuator Library(e.g. Vdd, Frequency,
Back gate biasing, Functional unit control)Sensor Library
(e.g. supply noise, Vth)
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 16
Industry Implications
?Power and variability continue to be the two principal concerns facing semiconductor industry
?CMOS performance gains will continue for the next ten years through the incorporation of new materials, innovative process integration, and tailored layouts
?Ultra-low voltage devices and circuits will emerge enabling 3D silicon integration with attendant density scaling
?Packaging technology will continue to grow in importance as devices structures increase in complexity
?Increasingly on-chip sensing and monitoring for improved variability control and yield will be the norm
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© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute
The Event-Driven World
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 18
The Event-Driven World
• Billing• Security• Fraud alerts• Retrospective
processing
Location Based Service (Traffic)
RFID-enabled Checkout
Intelligent Oil Field
ENRON Chairman
indicted……
..
Fraud/Compliance
Surveillance RFID-enabled Scanning
VoIP, VoD, IMS, etc.
IPv6 Map
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 19
Surveillance
Financial
Market Data
RFID Data
Rich Media
TDDB
DBMSDB
Data Warehouse
General Framework for Time-Dependent Event Handling
Event ActionEvent Analysis
Event Notification
Event-based Engine
An event-based engine routes, sequences, and filters event data in a time-dependent fashion
TD: Time-dependent
Continuously Analyze Event
Streams
Identify Patterns of Interest
Selectively Notify Systems
& Personnel
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 20
Sensor Analytics Sensor Analytics
Person entering restricted tunnel
Abandoned bag on platform
Stamford, CT Newark Airport, NJ
Alert: Potentially Coordinated Attack
Surveillance Example
Pub/Sub Client
Pub/Sub Client
Messaging Hub
Messaging Hub
Event AnomalyDetection
Event AnomalyDetection
DBMS
Suspicious Activity Detection ~ 1 sec
Correlation of Suspicious
Activity ~ 20 sec Distributed Event Miner
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 21
Defense, Intelligence, and Homeland Security
Straight Through
OLTP
OLAP
Data Mining
Data Fusion
Message Transformation
Filtering
Emergence of Intelligent Event-Driven Applications
Fra
ud
Man
agem
ent
?s ms sec min hr
Sec
uri
ties
Tra
din
g S
yste
m
Inte
llig
ent
Oil
Fiel
d
Business Intelligence
(OLAP)
Business Intelligence
(Data Mining)
E-c
om
mer
ce
tran
sact
ion
s
Lo
cati
on
Bas
ed S
ervi
ce,
Pre
sen
ce, S
IPR
FID
Har
d R
eal-
Tim
e
Sof
t R
eal-
Tim
e
Nea
r R
eal-
Tim
e
Processing Complexity
Processing Latency
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 22
Defense, Intelligence, and Homeland Security
Fra
ud
Man
agem
ent
?s ms sec min
Sec
uri
ties
Tra
din
g S
yste
m
Inte
llig
ent
Oil
Fiel
d
Business Intelligence
(OLAP)
Business Intelligence
(Data Mining)
E-c
om
mer
ce
tran
sact
ion
s
Lo
cati
on
Bas
ed S
ervi
ce,
Pre
sen
ce, S
IPR
FID
OLAP (Teradata, DB2, Oracle)
Mes
sag
ing
ES
B
OLTP (DB2, Oracle, SQL Server)
Time-Dependent
Event-Driven Middleware
Straight Through
OLTP
OLAP
Data Mining
Data Fusion
Message Transformation
Filtering
Emergence of Intelligent Event-Driven Applications
Processing Complexity
Processing Latency
hr
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 23
Current and Emerging Players
Event Engine
Accelerator
Real-time Database
Real-time JVM
Informix RTLReal-time JVM
IBM Research
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Data Source N
Data Warehouse
ETL
Data Source 1
Reference Architecture for Event-Driven Middleware
DBMS
App 1 App N
Short-term storage
Long-term storage
…Intelligent, Time-
dependent, Pub/Sub, and Routing Hub
…
DB Tradeoffs for Event-Handling
1. Latency for Consistency
2. Throughput for Persistence
ESB responsible for:
?High-throughput data handling
?Low-latency messaging and routing
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 25
Industry Implications
?The real world is being captured (through sensors) and modeled at increasing spatiotemporal resolution
?On demand businesses will need to evolve to deal with (monitor, process, store, and respond) the increasingly event-driven world
?New middleware, programming models, and tools will emerge to deal with the increasing volume and time-dependent requirements of event-driven data
?SOA will be augmented with event orientation and processing, resulting in a hybrid between a web service and an event programming model
26
© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute
Application-Optimized Systems
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 27
Application-Optimized Systems
GTO 2006Application-Optimized
Systems
?Customizable? Flexible?Easy to program? Low TCO?Manageable ?Standards based?Multi-threaded?Accelerator enabled?Power frugal
Virtual Middleware
Virtual OSVirtual Engine
New Apps
We are entering a new era of “application-optimized computing” with 10-100X in performance advantages enabling a whole new class of applications
Data source: Competitive Analysis Technical Team (CATT)
Dense Server Chip
GTO 2001Modularity
ext cachecontroller
memctrl
PPC core
PPC core
PPC core
PPC core
64bPPCCore
Transaction Server Chip
Game Chip
cmp / recover
ext cachecontroller
Growable L2 Slice
jtag / SP Fast I/O
memctrl
PPC core
PPC core
PPC core
Game Chip
special arithmetic
processorsHigh BW graphics interface
High BW memoryinterface
I/O
PPC core
GTO 2003Scale-OutBladeCenter
GTO 2003Virtual Computer
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Production Date
20
200
FPG
IBMIBM-SF
IntelTSMC
100
RecentHistorical
Trend
GTO 2004 Device Performance Roadmap
IBMIBM-SF
IntelTSMC
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 28
Modularity At All Levels is Enabling a New Era of Application-Optimized Systems
A A A A
A A A A
C
CC
CC
CC
C C
C
C
C
L2 Cache
C
C
L2Cache
L2 Cache
Multi-threads, Multi-cores, Specialty cores, Accelerators,
Busses, I/O
Chip Level
SoC design, Compilers, Libraries
Operating systems, Middleware,
Management tools
Subsystem LevelMemory,
I/O subsystem,Specialty blades
ManageCustomers
Strategy
Tactics
Execution
Merchandising Store/Channel Operations
Supply Chain &Distribution
FinanceAdministration
BusinessAdministration
Business Perf. Mgmt.
External Market Assessment
Legal and Regulatory
Indirect Procurement
Real Estate, Facilities and
Equipment
HR Administration
Corporate Finance and
Controls
Customer Insights
Vendor and Product
Performance Execution and Management
Distribution Center
Transportation Resources
Product Directory
Accounting and GL
Outbound
Logistic s
Store/Off -site Services Execution
Inventory Planning
Channel, Category Strategy and Planning
Assortment and Space Planning Management and Execution
Supply Chain
Strategy and Planning
Financial Management and Planning
Organization and Process Design
Corp. Planning
Alliance Management
Line of Business Planning
Develop and Operate IT Systems
Distribution Oversight
Market Risk Management
Customer Relationship Planning and
Strategies
Product Planning,
Development & Pricing
Strategies
Customer Insights
Vendor Relationship
Strategies
Assessing Customer
Satisfaction
Matching Supply and
Demand
Order Management
Customer Account Servicing
Item Management
Treasury
Store Operations
Management
Transportation Resources
Event, Promotion
Strategy and Planning
Customer Directory
Inventory, Product Tracking and Tracing
Operations Back Office
Financial
Outbound Logistics
Store/Channel Design and
Layout
Store/Channel Labor
Strategy
Store/Channel Objectives &
Strategy Planning
ManageCustomers
Strategy
Tactics
Execution
Merchandising Store/Channel Operations
Supply Chain &Distribution
FinanceAdministration
BusinessAdministration
Business Perf. Mgmt.
External Market Assessment
Legal and Regulatory
Indirect Procurement
Real Estate, Facilities and
Equipment
HR Administration
Corporate Finance and
Controls
Customer Insights
Vendor and Product
Performance Execution and Management
Distribution Center
Transportation Resources
Product Directory
Accounting and GL
Outbound
Logistic s
Store/Off -site Services Execution
Inventory Planning
Channel, Category Strategy and Planning
Assortment and Space Planning Management and Execution
Supply Chain
Strategy and Planning
Financial Management and Planning
Organization and Process Design
Corp. Planning
Alliance Management
Line of Business Planning
Develop and Operate IT Systems
Distribution Oversight
Market Risk Management
Customer Relationship Planning and
Strategies
Product Planning,
Development & Pricing
Strategies
Customer Insights
Vendor Relationship
Strategies
Assessing Customer
Satisfaction
Matching Supply and
Demand
Order Management
Customer Account Servicing
Item Management
Treasury
Store Operations
Management
Transportation Resources
Event, Promotion
Strategy and Planning
Customer Directory
Inventory, Product Tracking and Tracing
Operations Back Office
Financial
Outbound Logistics
Store/Channel Design and
Layout
Store/Channel Labor
Strategy
Store/Channel Objectives &
Strategy Planning
5.6 GF/s, 4 MB
2 processors
2 chips, 1x2x14 processors
11.2 GF/s1.0 GB
16 compute cards(16 compute, 0-2 IO
cards)64 processors
180 GF/s16 GB
32 Node Cards2048 processors
5.6 TF/s512 GB
20 KWatts1 m2 footprint
64 Racks, 64x32x32131,072 processors
360 TF/s32 TB
1.3M Watts
SystemRack
Mode Card
Compute Card
Chip
Business processesSystem LevelBusiness Level
Web Services, SOAEnterprise Service Bus
System level design,Protocols
Processor blades/drawers/racks
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 29
Examples of Application-Optimized Systems At All Levels
BlueGeneCell Applications?Protein folding?DOE applications?Modeling of
neocortex
Applications?Gaming ?3D rendering
BladeCenterApplications?Networking blades?Search blades?XML blades?Cell blades
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 30
Example: Computed Tomography (CT)
Image whole heart in 1 rotation
4D CT –includes time
2 slices 4 slices 8 slices 16 slices32
slices
64
slices
128
slices
256
slices
Current CT Products Future CT Products
1. Faster rotation speeds = more data, faster
2. More slices per rotation = more data, faster(# of images per study increased 10X in last 24 months)
3. Will lead to more computer aided detection and/or diagnosis
ALL 3 drive demand for compute power and for medical imaging, real time imaging, and functional imaging
Opportunity for integration of hardware accelerators with CT devices and software systems
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 31
Simplified Systems Management Remains Key Challenge for Scale-Out
Server Spending
Management and Server Spending Outlook
ManagementSpending
20406080
100120140160
‘96 ’98 ‘00 ’02 ’04 ’06 ’08Source: IDC, 2004
Spending($B)
?Hardware costs have been decreasing due to? Moore’s Law? Scale-out
? Scale-out adds increased complexity? More operating systems to manage? Heterogeneous systems? Incremental resource additions? Version control ? Multiple policy levels
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 32
Virtualization Will Significantly Simplify Management
1970 1980 1985 19901975 1995 2000 2010
Integrated Virtual machine
S/ 360
DistributedClient / Server Model
2005
*PDS- IBM Research Project
Pervasive virtualization will be used to re-aggregate distributed systems into
virtual systems
Z-LPARS
Operating System
Server Clusters
Network
Storage
Middleware
Softricity
IBM PDS*
Xen
VMotion
Virtual Iron
VPN
IBM SVC
SAN.FS
VMware
IBM Meiosys
Processor / Memory
IBM PHYP
MS Virtual Partitions
VFrame
Applications
IBM EWLM
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 33
Spectrum of Virtualization
Resource virtualization and application virtualization are complementary and can co-exist
Complete isolation between OSsRun different OSsSmaller trusted computing base
Isolation only between AppsRunning 1 version of OSTrust depends on entire OS
Apps share common OS servicesSmaller containerLess context switching overhead
Only HW resources are sharedLarger containerMore context switching overhead
ServerVirtualization
Application EnvironmentVirtualization
PHYP,Xen,VMware
PDS, Softricity,Meiosys, Veritas Appscale
Hardware
OS 1
App App
OS 2
App App
Hypervisor
Runtime Environment
Runtime Environment
Hardware
OS
App App
Mediator
Runtime Environment
Runtime Environment
ShallowDeep
SharingLess More
Isolation
ResourcePartitions
Java VirtualMachines
CICS Regions
LPARS,PPARS
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 34
Pervasive Virtualization Drives IT Management Simplification
?Redistributing workloads to optimize performance/QoS, improved resource utilization
?Security and isolation through partitioning
?Provisioning new systems using pre-built images (freeze-dried stacks)
?Concurrently supporting incompatible environments
?Robust retention compliance through archive of entire system image (data, application, middleware, OS, etc.)
35
© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute
The Accelerating Evolution of Software
The Web
As
“The Platform”
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 36
Evolution of Enterprise ApplicationsE
nte
rpri
se A
pp
licat
ion
Evo
luti
on
60’s-80’s 90’s-00 00-10’s Time
Mainframe World
Client-Server World
Web Services Enabled World
Enterprise applications built by IT departments
Applications initially prototyped by LOBs, then rebuilt by IT departments
Applications built by LOBs and end-users, customizing and aggregating services as needed
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 37
Situational Application Example – Scipionus.com
Application built by one person in one day, leveraging Google maps web service
Legend:
– events
– changes
– 50 latest
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 38
Rapid Growth of Domain-Specific ServicesExamples of companies offering services on the web today, and growing …
Terrafirma
SForce
NDFD XML
Google Maps API
FedEx Tracking
Online Tracking
DHL Web Services
Search, Maps
USPS Web Tools
E-Commerce
Repository for boutique services
PayPal
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 39
Web 2.0 Meme (Web Culture)
The Web as
“The Platform”
Tools: RSS, AJAX, PHP,
Ruby
Services, not packaged software
Architectural participation
Small pieces loosely joined, or
“re-mixed”
Harnessing collective
intelligence
Software that gets better as more people use it
Standards: REST, XHTML
Techniques: Mash-up, wiki,
tagging, blogging
Rich user experiences
Light-weight programming
models
Zeitgeist of the current internet generation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 40
Mash-up
List of stores
Google Map web service
NOAA Weather web service
Mash-up definition: from Wikipedia
Bastard pop is a musical genre which, in its purest form, consists of the combination (usually by digital means) of the music from one song with the a cappella from another. Typically, the music and vocals belong to completely different genres. At their best, bastard pop songs strive for musical epiphanies that add up to considerably more than the sum of their parts.
SAP order fulfillment
RSS feed of top-selling items
Wiki commands to compose application
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 41
Traditional and Situational Application Environments
Traditional (Transactional)
?Careful, formal change management?Slowly evolving
applications?Changes are major
?Handful of large applications on 100s of machines?Often dedicated – several
machines per application
?Structured design and programming?Code Review?Function test?Quality test?Performance test
Situational (Collaborative)
?Change management is a huge challenge?Rapidly changing
applications?Changes generally minor
?Thousands of small applications on handful of machines?Each machine has
hundreds of applications
?Unstructured programming?Little discipline?No formal test process –
using the application is test
Development, deployment, and management of situational applications contrast those processes used in traditional enterprise application development
ModelModel
AssembleAssemble
ManageManage
DeployDeploy
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 42
Industry Implications
? Situational application development will become a dominant methodology for software development, initially in the web community and at the periphery of the enterprise – and ultimately across the extended enterprise
? Composite situational applications will represent the next generation of enterprise portal metaphors – from on-the-glass content integration (portlets) to on-the-glass application integration (mash-ups)
?While composite situational applications are each simple, the enterprise IT environment will continue to grow in heterogeneity and complexity due to the diversity of applications and their development paradigms
? The movement towards situational applications will accelerate the componentization of software – enterprise software, ISV applications, middleware, business services
? Enterprises will be pressured by LOB users to expose the functional interfaces of enterprise applications and refactor them into bite-size chunks in order to utilize new functionality provided by situational applications
? New end-user programming tools are emerging to enable the rapid discovery, customization, and integration of situational applications
43
© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute
Services 2.0
Service1
Service2
Service4
Service3
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 44
Broad Acceptance of Business ComponentizationExample: Auto Industry CBM
?CBM maps for all industries including 70 industry sub-segments
?225+ engagements across all industries?Over 1500 IBM services practitioners trained globally
Business Administration
Corporate/LOB Strategy & Planning
Organization & Process Policies
Alliance Strategies
Human CapitalManagement
Legal & RegulatoryBusiness
PerformanceIntellectual
Property
Building/Facilities
& Equipment
IT Systems& Operations
Knowledge & Learning
Financial Management
Capital Appropriation
Planning
FinancialPlanning &Forecasting
Risk Manage-ment & Internal
Audit
Treasury
TaxManagement
Accounting & General Ledger
CostManagement
Product/Process
Portfolio Strategy &Planning
Research &Development
Design Rules& Policies
ProgramManagementConfigurationManagement
DesignValidation
ChangeManagement
MechanicalDesign
In-vehicleSystem Design
Process Design
Tool Design& Build
SupplyChain
Supply ChainStrategy & Planning
DemandPlanning
SupplierRelationship
Planning
Supply ChainPerformanceMonitoring
SupplierManagement
LogisticsManagement
InventoryManagement
TransportationManagement
Procurement
Marketing& Sales
CustomerRelationship
Strategy
Sales & PromotionPlanning
BrandManagement
RelationshipMonitoring
Demand Forecast
& Analysis
DealerManagement
CustomerRelationshipManagement
OrderManagement
LeaseManagement
Direct
Control
Execute
Production
ProductionStrategy
ProductionRules & Policies
Master ProductionPlanning
ProductionScheduling
QualityManagement
PlantOperations
MaintenanceManagement
ProductionMonitoring
Service &Aftersales
Post Vehicle Sale
Strategy
WarrantyManagement
QualityManagement
End-of-LifeVehicle
VehicleService
PartsManagement
Strategic Differentiation
Competitive ParityBasic
Strategic
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 45
Linking CBM to SOA
?Build CBM enterprise model
?Trace component links
?Identify “hot” component
?Isolate for analysis
?Disaggregate into services elements
?Model the service elements
?Implement on SOA platform
Controlling
Executing
Directing Business Planning
Business Unit Tracking Sales Mgt
Credit Assessment
Reconciliation
Compliance
Staff Appraisal
Relationship Mgt
Sector Mgt
Product Mgt
Production Admin
Product Fulfillment
Marketing Campaigns
Product Directory
Credit Admin
Customer Accounts
GeneralLedger
DocumentManagement
Customer Dialogue
Contact Routing
StaffAdmin
BusinessAdmin
New Business Development
Relationship Mgt
Servicing & Sales
Product Fulfillment
Financial Control &
Accounting
Sector Planning
Portfolio Planning
Account Planning
Sales Planning Fulfillment Planning
FulfillmentManagement
SalesSalesSales
SOA Platform (ESB)
SWService
SWService
SWService
SWService
SalesService
1
Service2
Service4
Service3
Model the key service elements
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 46
Granularity of Business Services ElementsV
alu
e to
clie
nt
Granularity of offering
Many small componentsHigh cost of integration
A few large components Less flexibility
OptimizedFlexibility-cost balance
Cost affected by standards, availability,
legacy, skills, tools, quality,
technical factors
Large GrainSmall Grain
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 47
Services “Mash-Up”: Classic Disruptive TechnologyM
arket Need
s
Capability & Functionality
Time
Composable simple services
Small
Large
Medium
Traditional Enterprise Services
SMB market spawns the technologies that will ultimately disrupt the traditional enterprise market
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 48
Tools are Emerging for Efficiently Composing Complex Business Services
Client Interview Template ToolStructured and guided approach to collection of client
needs at business level
Solution ComposerBuilds composite service from service elements
? Application Configuration Tool? Creates a new customer instance with selected service
elements
? Interface Matching Tool? Automates creation of translation to client systems
? Cost Estimator? Provides cost estimate for contract
Social Network Analysis Tools Surfaces informal relationship assets
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 49
Social Network Analysis (SNA) Tool Example
Source: Rob Cross, McIntyre School of Commerce, University of Virginia, http://www.robcross.org/
? Insights from SNA
? Organizational charts may not show how work really gets done
? Senior executives not always central
? SNA can reveal problems:
? Central person could be overworked
? Risk to organization if central person goes away
? Peripheral people can represent untapped knowledge
Social network analysis reveals hidden connections providing an “organizational X-ray”
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 50
Composing Services: From Art to EngineeringMoving from a customized approach to a standard configured approach
Informal processes hidden
Manual integration of service elements
Personnel dependent asset reuse
Expertise driven costs and resources estimation
Isolated service assets
Ad hoc requirements gathering
Customization for each service implementation
“Art” “Engineered”
Relationships assets managed
Assisted mapping of service elements
Systematic and consistent asset reuse
Model-based cost and resource estimation
Composable service assets
Structured and guided requirements gathering
Configuration of service offerings
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 51
Extending the Reach of Business Terms
IT Platform
“Codify business rules in IT terms”
Business Processes
If (..)Then (..)Else (…)
“IT” terms
“Business Terms”Web 2.0Business Services Mash-up
Web 2.0 and business services mash-ups will codify application logic in business terms and accelerate the move to SOA
Existing ISV Applications
Open, Modular Business Services
Web Services Platform
Standards
52
© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute
GTO & the Rome Lab
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation 53
Rome Lab focus on GTO?Tivoli Dynamic Workload Broker
?New generation of event based scheduling?Virtualization of resources for the scheduled job execution?Service based scheduling (adapters based on web services) The Web
As“The Platform”
?Tivoli License Compliance Manager?End-user notification of non compliance to entitled licenses ?Discovery of virtualized resources -Handling of licensing models in virtualized environments ?Componentization and exposure of reusable functions through Web Services
The WebAs
“The Platform”
?Progressive Deployment System?Pre-installation of OS, applications and prereq middleware in a virtual sand-box
?Tivoli Provisioning Manager?Orchestration – Event driven provisioning of Software, OS, Storage, Network (US OPEN Web Site Orchestration)?Provisioning of Software Stacks (Applications, Middleware) - Bare metal OS Provisioning ?Web services interface - OPAL publishing of Out-of-the-Box Automation Packages
The WebAs
“The Platform”
?Network Interactive Content Access?e-Commerce solution to publish and sell on the Web
?Rome Solution Lab?Designing an ESB based architecture for Energy & Utilities companies?Modular services approach to meet customer business needs Service
1
Service2
Service4Service
3
?Rome Services Lab?Adoption of Component Infrastructure Roadmap tool to design modular solutions for customer business requirements -Product-oriented service packaging for a modular offering
Service1
Service2
Service4Service
3