global polypropylene outlook - amazon web services · 2020. 10. 13. · global polypropylene...
TRANSCRIPT
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October 9th, 2020
Global Polypropylene Outlook
ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
Fabrizio Galiè – Senior Consultant, ICIS
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Impact of covid-19 on PP
Agenda
9 Oct 2020
01
Risk of oversupply02
Future demand03
2ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
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Impact of covid-19 on PP
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar 3
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PP Global Demand
4
-1%Global demand contraction now expected in 2020
7.9MtDemand loss in 2020-2021
1.5-2Mt Annual demand loss from 2022
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
M tonnes
Covid-19 impact on global PP demand outlook
Pre-covid demand forecast Current demand forecast
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Early recovery for some (key) markets
5
3.9%Current projection for China 2020
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
N.America
S&C America
Europe
Turkey
Former USSR
Africa
Middle East
China
NE Asia
Asia Pacific
-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
PP 2020 CAGR% by Region
40%Projected China share on global consumption 2020
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Downstream trends very mixed
6
-5%Minimum annual drop expected for injection moulding
PP demand drop from automotive sector (prelim.)
Positive y-o-y
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
MEDICAL and FOOD PACK.
-27%
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Other (incl.blow)
Nonwoven
Extr. Film, sheet, coating
Extr. Fibres and raffia
Injection Molding
World PP Demand by Process
2020 (forecast) 2019
M Tonnes
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Risk of oversupply
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar 7
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Demand disruption affected timeline for some projects
89 Oct 2020
CANADAPembina/PIC
550KtyON HOLD
MALAYSIAPengerang
900KtyDELAYED (2021)
USAFormosa250Kty
DELAYED (2023)
COLOMBIAEsenttia
(expansion)CANCELED
CHINASaudi Aramco (jv)
600KtyON HOLD
ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
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Largest annual capacity increases in PP history
9
6.1MtyAverage annual increase in total available PP capacity 2020-2022
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
World PP Annual Capacity IncreaseK Tonnes
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1.0
Africa &M.East
World PP capacity increases 2020-2025 (Mt/y)
10ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar9 Oct 2020
1.9
North America
0.8
Europe & Turkey 1.2
Former USSR
10.9
North East Asia
5.2
Asia Pacific
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Excess capacity increase vs global demand
119 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
82%World average plant utilization rate 2020-2022 based on current projects
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025
World PP Supply&Demand
capacity cons ut rate
M Tonnes %
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Future demand
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar 12
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Copyright © 2019 ICIS
Population
Urbanization
Infrastructures
Middle class
World Population Growth 2030 vs. 2020
Long-term macro-trends supportive of demand growth
2020 2030
2020 2030
2020 2030 2020 2030
2020 2030
2020 2030
2020 20302020 2030
ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar9 Oct 2020
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Forecast World PP Demand
1409 Oct 2020
China
CIS
E. Europe
India
Mexico & South-Central America
Middle East
N. America excl. Mex
Oth. Asia Pacific
North Africa
Oth. Africa
Turkey
W. Europe
Oth. NE. Asia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Pe
r C
ap
ita
Co
ns
um
pti
on
20
19
(K
G)
Demand AAGR 2019-2030 (%/year)
*Size represents Demand in 2019.
9 Oct 2020
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• Key applications prevented deeper
falls so far
• Duration of the coronavirus crisis may
lead to worse consequences
• Investments confront with oversupply
• Long-term demand potential
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar 15
Key takeaways
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Thank you
Fabrizio Galiè Senior Consultant
+39 340 881 8055