Global Forests in Transition:

Challenges and Opportunities for Communities, Commerce

and Conservation

Gary Bull and Andy White

UBC Faculty of Forestry

Forest Trends

Global Perspectives on Indigenous People’s Forestry, Vancouver, June 6, 2002

Gary Bull and Andy White

UBC Faculty of ForestryUBC Faculty of Forestry

Forest TrendsForest Trends

Global Perspectives on Indigenous People’s Forestry, Vancouver, June 6, 2002

The World of Forestry is Changing

USA: Banning new roads and logging in public forests

Canada: Negotiating tenure and Changing forest practices

Bolivia, Peru: Reformingforest policies

South America: Recognizingindigenous rights

PNG: Logging moratorium

Russia: Conflicts over tenure and government authority

Cameroon: Recognizing illegal loggingand reforming concession policy

Tenure in Transition: Shift Towards Indigenous andOther Community Tenure in Last 15 Years

Country Recognized CommunityOwnership

(in millions of hectares)

Reserved for CommunityAdministration

(in millions of hectares)Australia 53.5Bolivia 2.8 16.6Brazil 74.5Colombia 24.5India 11.6Indonesia 0.6Peru 22.5 8.4Sudan 0.8Tanzania 0.4TOTAL 103.3 112.9

Dramatic Increase in Community Ownership and Access

143.3

18.5

246.3

131.4

480

260

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Recognized Community Ownership Reserved for Community Administration

(in m

illio

ns o

f hec

tare

s)

1985 2001

2015

A Doubling in Community Tenure in Last 15 Years: Double Again in the Next?

Already 3 x more than owned by individual and firms in developing countries

77

4

7

12

Administered by Government

Reserved for Community andIndigenous GroupsCommunity / Indigenous

Individual / Firm

Total of 24 countries

2,803.2 131.4 246.3 443.0

Tenure in Transition: Ownership of the Forest Estate

55

4

7

12

11

Administered by Government

Reserved for Community andIndigenous GroupsCommunity / Indigenous

Individual / Firm

2015??

Tenure in Transition: Ownership of the Forest Estate

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Industry in Transition: Declining Commodity PricesIndustry in Transition: Declining Commodity Prices

The Economist industrial commodity-price index, in real* $ termsThe Economist industrial commodity-price index, in real* $ terms

*Adjusted by US GDP deflator*Adjusted by US GDP deflator

Since 1997, average return on capital in the forest product industry is 4.1%

Industry in Transition: ConsolidationIndustry in Transition: Consolidation

010203040506070

1 100

Million m3

The top 50 companiesprocess 41% of the world'sindust rial wood

The top 100 companiesprocess 50% of the world's

industrial wood

Company Ranking

The top 10 companiesprocess 20% of the world'sindust rial wood

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

Estimated actual Lanly & Clement

Historically: 75% of plantation costs subsidized by governments

Supply in Transition: Plantation Trends ’79 – ‘00

0102030405060

1995 2010 2020 2050

Year

% o

f tot

al in

dust

rial

roun

dwoo

d pr

oduc

tion

Scenario 1Scenario 2

Average annual returns: 8-12%

Supply in Transition: 30 – 50% from plantations?

Demand in Transition

•Greater accountability for where wood comes from•Certification•Supply chain management•Responsible trade (proof of legality)

•Demand growing more rapidly in developing countries than developed (e.g. China)

•Increasing substitution•Plastic, steel, engineered products

•Utilization of smaller logs, different species•Niche markets and products with changing consumer tastes•Rising demand/prices for appearance grades, specialty

woods, veneers•Tropical hardwoods•Naturally durable woods

Increasing Financial Value of Natural ForestsIncreasing Financial Value of Natural Forests

Real value of stumpage increasing by 2.15% per annumReal value of stumpage increasing by 2.15% per annum

Source: USDA Forest ServiceSource: USDA Forest Service

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

19591961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997

Douglas-Fir

Ponderosa Pine

HemlockTrend

Policy in Transition: Policy in Transition:

From: •Strict, detailed, regulatory approaches

•Blanket national policies, complex regulations and management plans

From: •Strict, detailed, regulatory approaches

•Blanket national policies, complex regulations and management plans

To:

•Market-based incentives, results-based

•More transparent, participatory and independent monitoring

•BC Practices Board, State of Montana BMPs

•Increasing role of civil society:•Exposing corruption, claiming rights•Campaigns, consumer power

What Opportunities for Indigenous/Community Forestry?

Competitive advantages:•Ownership, tenure security, Natural Forests•Proximity & knowledge of local markets•Price advantages, lower production costs•Sustainability, dedicated to the land•Better monitoring and protection•Possibilities for branding in specialized markets

•Commercial opportunities:•Commodity wood – domestic markets•High-quality, appearance grades•Certified wood•NTFPs•Processing•Payments for ecosystem services

Tremendous Potential, Historic Opportunity

Economic development for hundreds of millions of the world’s poorest

• forestry often the only comparative advantage

Resolve social disputes, improve forest conservation

• ‘rationalizing’ forest tenure, improving chances for investment

• communities often as good or better managers of forests than large firms or governments

But: many strikes against indigenous/community forestry

1. Limited willingness to recognize property rights, governance

2. Limited ‘use’ rights

3. Governments privilege:

agriculture over forestry

large enterprises over small

plantations over natural forests

No surprise that most community enterprises are ‘out’

playing field is not ‘level’

can’t compete with the big guys

A Framework for ActionA Framework for Action

1. Develop forest enterprises

2. Remove policy barriers

3. Rethink conservation strategies

Let communities compete!

Develop Forest EnterprisesDevelop Forest Enterprises

Goal: Narrow distance between community producers and markets, sources of capital

1. Improve market/business position

2. Strengthen producer organizations

3. Promote strategic business partnerships

4. Establish business services

5. Determine to make money

Remove Policy BarriersRemove Policy Barriers

1. Secure ownership and access rights of indigenous and other communities

2. Remove regulatory barriers

3. ‘Level the playing field’ in forest markets

4. Involve communities and small-scale producers in policy negotiations

Rethink Conservation StrategiesRethink Conservation Strategies

1. Public protected areas insufficient

2. Establish community conservation systems

• Complement/alternative to public systems

• E.g. Mexico, Brazil

3. Create markets for environmental services

What’s Next?

1. More action!

• Results-based plans to implement framework for action

• Leadership!

2. More connections!

• Between and among

• indigenous groups

• sectors

• countries