Global Forests in Transition:
Challenges and Opportunities for Communities, Commerce
and Conservation
Gary Bull and Andy White
UBC Faculty of Forestry
Forest Trends
Global Perspectives on Indigenous People’s Forestry, Vancouver, June 6, 2002
Gary Bull and Andy White
UBC Faculty of ForestryUBC Faculty of Forestry
Forest TrendsForest Trends
Global Perspectives on Indigenous People’s Forestry, Vancouver, June 6, 2002
The World of Forestry is Changing
USA: Banning new roads and logging in public forests
Canada: Negotiating tenure and Changing forest practices
Bolivia, Peru: Reformingforest policies
South America: Recognizingindigenous rights
PNG: Logging moratorium
Russia: Conflicts over tenure and government authority
Cameroon: Recognizing illegal loggingand reforming concession policy
Tenure in Transition: Shift Towards Indigenous andOther Community Tenure in Last 15 Years
Country Recognized CommunityOwnership
(in millions of hectares)
Reserved for CommunityAdministration
(in millions of hectares)Australia 53.5Bolivia 2.8 16.6Brazil 74.5Colombia 24.5India 11.6Indonesia 0.6Peru 22.5 8.4Sudan 0.8Tanzania 0.4TOTAL 103.3 112.9
Dramatic Increase in Community Ownership and Access
143.3
18.5
246.3
131.4
480
260
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Recognized Community Ownership Reserved for Community Administration
(in m
illio
ns o
f hec
tare
s)
1985 2001
2015
A Doubling in Community Tenure in Last 15 Years: Double Again in the Next?
Already 3 x more than owned by individual and firms in developing countries
77
4
7
12
Administered by Government
Reserved for Community andIndigenous GroupsCommunity / Indigenous
Individual / Firm
Total of 24 countries
2,803.2 131.4 246.3 443.0
Tenure in Transition: Ownership of the Forest Estate
55
4
7
12
11
Administered by Government
Reserved for Community andIndigenous GroupsCommunity / Indigenous
Individual / Firm
2015??
Tenure in Transition: Ownership of the Forest Estate
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Industry in Transition: Declining Commodity PricesIndustry in Transition: Declining Commodity Prices
The Economist industrial commodity-price index, in real* $ termsThe Economist industrial commodity-price index, in real* $ terms
*Adjusted by US GDP deflator*Adjusted by US GDP deflator
Since 1997, average return on capital in the forest product industry is 4.1%
Industry in Transition: ConsolidationIndustry in Transition: Consolidation
010203040506070
1 100
Million m3
The top 50 companiesprocess 41% of the world'sindust rial wood
The top 100 companiesprocess 50% of the world's
industrial wood
Company Ranking
The top 10 companiesprocess 20% of the world'sindust rial wood
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year
Estimated actual Lanly & Clement
Historically: 75% of plantation costs subsidized by governments
Supply in Transition: Plantation Trends ’79 – ‘00
0102030405060
1995 2010 2020 2050
Year
% o
f tot
al in
dust
rial
roun
dwoo
d pr
oduc
tion
Scenario 1Scenario 2
Average annual returns: 8-12%
Supply in Transition: 30 – 50% from plantations?
Demand in Transition
•Greater accountability for where wood comes from•Certification•Supply chain management•Responsible trade (proof of legality)
•Demand growing more rapidly in developing countries than developed (e.g. China)
•Increasing substitution•Plastic, steel, engineered products
•Utilization of smaller logs, different species•Niche markets and products with changing consumer tastes•Rising demand/prices for appearance grades, specialty
woods, veneers•Tropical hardwoods•Naturally durable woods
Increasing Financial Value of Natural ForestsIncreasing Financial Value of Natural Forests
Real value of stumpage increasing by 2.15% per annumReal value of stumpage increasing by 2.15% per annum
Source: USDA Forest ServiceSource: USDA Forest Service
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
19591961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997
Douglas-Fir
Ponderosa Pine
HemlockTrend
Policy in Transition: Policy in Transition:
From: •Strict, detailed, regulatory approaches
•Blanket national policies, complex regulations and management plans
From: •Strict, detailed, regulatory approaches
•Blanket national policies, complex regulations and management plans
To:
•Market-based incentives, results-based
•More transparent, participatory and independent monitoring
•BC Practices Board, State of Montana BMPs
•Increasing role of civil society:•Exposing corruption, claiming rights•Campaigns, consumer power
What Opportunities for Indigenous/Community Forestry?
Competitive advantages:•Ownership, tenure security, Natural Forests•Proximity & knowledge of local markets•Price advantages, lower production costs•Sustainability, dedicated to the land•Better monitoring and protection•Possibilities for branding in specialized markets
•Commercial opportunities:•Commodity wood – domestic markets•High-quality, appearance grades•Certified wood•NTFPs•Processing•Payments for ecosystem services
Tremendous Potential, Historic Opportunity
Economic development for hundreds of millions of the world’s poorest
• forestry often the only comparative advantage
Resolve social disputes, improve forest conservation
• ‘rationalizing’ forest tenure, improving chances for investment
• communities often as good or better managers of forests than large firms or governments
But: many strikes against indigenous/community forestry
1. Limited willingness to recognize property rights, governance
2. Limited ‘use’ rights
3. Governments privilege:
agriculture over forestry
large enterprises over small
plantations over natural forests
No surprise that most community enterprises are ‘out’
playing field is not ‘level’
can’t compete with the big guys
A Framework for ActionA Framework for Action
1. Develop forest enterprises
2. Remove policy barriers
3. Rethink conservation strategies
Let communities compete!
Develop Forest EnterprisesDevelop Forest Enterprises
Goal: Narrow distance between community producers and markets, sources of capital
1. Improve market/business position
2. Strengthen producer organizations
3. Promote strategic business partnerships
4. Establish business services
5. Determine to make money
Remove Policy BarriersRemove Policy Barriers
1. Secure ownership and access rights of indigenous and other communities
2. Remove regulatory barriers
3. ‘Level the playing field’ in forest markets
4. Involve communities and small-scale producers in policy negotiations
Rethink Conservation StrategiesRethink Conservation Strategies
1. Public protected areas insufficient
2. Establish community conservation systems
• Complement/alternative to public systems
• E.g. Mexico, Brazil
3. Create markets for environmental services
What’s Next?
1. More action!
• Results-based plans to implement framework for action
• Leadership!
2. More connections!
• Between and among
• indigenous groups
• sectors
• countries