global construction 2030 expo edifica 2017 santiago chile · expo edifica 2017 santiago – chile...

Global Construction 2030

Expo EDIFICA 2017

Santiago – Chile

4-6 October 2017

Graham Robinson – Global Construction Perspectives

Global Construction 2030 is the fourth in a series of

global studies of the construction and engineering industry published by

Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

[email protected]

Medium Term Trends in GDP Global Regions Average annual % change

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics


1,1

1,9 1,4 1,2

5,9

4,2 4,1 3,7

0,0

4,0

8,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Developed Regions Emerging Regions

Regional GDP Growth Average annual % change




0,7

1,4 1,6

3,3 3,4

8,7

4,3

5,1

1,7 2,1

1,7 2,0

1,5

6,3

3,0

1,7 1,3 1,5 1,5

2,0 2,5

5,2

3,4 3,7

1,0 1,5

1,1

1,9 2,1

4,6

3,0 3,5

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Western Europe

North America

Asia Pacific (Developed)

Eastern Europe

Latin America

Asia Pacific (Emerging)

Middle East North Africa

Sub-Saharan

Africa

GDP by Region in 2017

GDP at 2014 prices and exchange rates US$bn

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and

Oxford Economics www.globalconstruction2030.com


Eastern Europe 7%

Latin America 7%

Asia Pacific

(Emerging) 22%

Middle East and

North Africa 4%

Sub-Saharan Africa 2% Western Europe 23%

North America 24%

Asia Pacific

(Developed) 11%

GDP by Region in 2030 GDP at 2014 prices and exchange rates US$bn


Oxford Economics www.globalconstruction2030.com


Eastern Europe 6%

Latin America 7%

Asia Pacific

(Emerging) 31%

Middle East and

North Africa 4%

Sub-Saharan Africa 2%

Western Europe 23%

North America 24%

Asia Pacific

(Developed) 11%

Global Construction Outlook 2030

Key Growth Drivers


GDP and Population Growth – 10 countries

Average annual % change




China Nigeria Saudi Arabia

Brazil Australia Russia UK Germany India US

5,3

1,7

6,5

1,0

1,9

0,9

2,5

1,4

2,6

3,4

0,2 0,8 1,0

0,0 0,6

-0,2

1,6

0,6

1,5

2,5

-4

0

4

8

GDP Population

Population Structure – 10 countries

% of working population




Urbanization Trends – 10 countries




Rise of Middle Income Households households with incomes above US$35,000 (millions)




Quality of Existing Infrastructure – 10 Countries

Global Ranking out of 137 countries

Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Index 2017/18 (published 27 September 2017)

Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics Analysis


10 12

27

39 47 46

74

108

30

131

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

US India China Australia Germany Saudi Arabia

Brazil Russia Nigeria UK

Budget Deficit: Ability to Fund Infrastructure




2017 Global Market: Country Split

US$10.7 trillion at 2014 prices and exchange rates

Source: Global Construction Perspectives

and Oxford Economics



Russia 3%

Indonesia 3%

France 3%

UK 3%

Canada 3%

Germany 3%

India 4%

Japan 5%

US 12%

China 20%

Other 41%

2030 Global Market: Country Split

US$16.6 trillion at 2014 prices and exchange rates


Oxford Economics



Other 38%

China 26% India 7%

Germany 3%

US 12%

Japan 4%

Russia 2%

France 2%

UK 2%

Canada 2%

Australia 2%

Contribution to Global Growth 2017-2030

US$bn at 2014 prices and exchange rates


Oxford Economics



Other 34%

China 34%

US 10%

Turkey 1%

India 12%

Indonesia 6%

Korea 1% Mexico 1%

Canada 1%

Increasing Importance of Emerging Markets




Construction Outlook 2030

Global Super Powers


China: Growth Rates for

Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change




11,9

4,3 4,0 3,4

14,3

6,7 5,9 6,1

11,7

6,0

4,2 3,3

12,6

5,6 4,8 4,6

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

16,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

US: Growth Rates for





-7,5

5,4

3,0 2,8

-1,1

4,4

2,4 2,6 3,0

0,5

2,4 2,0

-3,2

3,7 2,7 2,6

-12,0

-8,0

-4,0

0,0

4,0

8,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30


India: Growth Rates for





5,7 5,2

7,8

8,8

6,9

4,2

6,9 6,9

5,8

4,7

7,4 7,7

6,4

4,5

7,1 7,4

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30


Indonesia: Growth Rates for





5,7 6,0 6,0 5,9 6,0 6,9

6,5 5,6

8,8

6,0 6,5

5,8

7,3

6,3 6,4 5,7

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30


Regional Construction Outlook 2030

Regional Growth – Latin America


Brazil: Growth Rates for





9,6

0,0

2,9

1,8

-1,3 -0,7

3,2

1,9

5,5

-2,2

3,2

1,8

5,3

-1,1

3,1

1,8

-4,0

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30


Mexico: Growth Rates for





0,7

3,0

2,4

3,2

1,0

3,3

4,1

3,3 3,4

0,2

2,4

3,2

1,6

2,2

3,0 3,2

0,0

4,0

8,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30


Colombia: Growth Rates for





7,8

2,6 3,4 3,2

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Total

Argentina: Growth Rates for





3,0

1,0

3,1

2,5

0,0

4,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Total

Chile: Growth Rates for





3,0 3,2 3,1 2,8

4,4

2,4

3,1 3,5 3,6

0,2

3,2 3,5 3,7

2,2

3,1 3,3

0,0

4,0

8,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30


Peru: Growth Rates for





11,3

0,0

4,4 4,0

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Total

Regional Summary 2014-2030 Average annual % change




1,5

2,7

1,5

2,1 2,1

5,4

3,7

4,3

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

Western Europe

Latin America

Eastern Europe

Asia Pacific (Developed)

North America

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East North Africa

Asia Pacific (Emerging)

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