Global Climate Change

ASHOK GHOSHProfessor In chargeDept of EWMDept. of EWMA. N. College, Patna

GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE

If everyone on Earth continue our current life style, it would take more than 7 Earths totake more than 7 Earths to support human population by the end of this century.

THEONLYONLYONEWEWE

KNOWOFOF…

…TODATE !DATE !

Our planet is heating up …

… and we are responsible

Unless we take steps NOW

b l b l i to curb global warming,

our way of life,

our future, and

our family are all in yGRAVE DANGER.

Should We Care?

82 MILLION

BARRELS OF

OIL

EVERY DAY !

10 ½

SWIMMINGPOOLS

EVERY

SECOND !

WE’VE DOUBLED

THE CO2 IN THE

ATMOSPHERE

SINCE 1950 !SINCE 1950 !

Polar ice caps are meltingPolar ice caps are melting

Sea levels are rising

Antarctic Ice  2000Antarctic Ice, 2000Some of the massive glaciers in Antarctica, such as Marr Ice Piedmont pictured here, are thinning and racing to the sea at a faster rate. Some ice shelves, such as Larsen B, have disintegrated altogether.

Bangladeshi Village, 2005A one‐meter (3.2‐foot) rise in sea level, which could result which could result from the melting of a fraction of Greenland's glaciers or Antarctica's ice sheets  would flood sheets, would flood 10 percent of Bangladesh, Bangladesh, including the village on Bhola Island i d h   d pictured here, and 

displace at least 20 million peoplemillion people.

Chicago Heat, 1995

Extreme weather hevents, such as 

the heat wave in Chi  i    Chicago in 1995 that killed 700 

l     h  h  people or the hot spell in Europe h  kill d   that killed 20,000 in 2003, will b    become more common as the l b  globe warms.

Mountain Retreat  2004Mountain Retreat, 2004Plants and animals that live at climatic that live at climatic boundaries, such as specific elevations specific elevations in the mountains, have been retreating up alpine slopes as temperatures warm, like these l t    M t plants on Mount 

Schrankogel in AustriaAustria.

Drought with Chinese Characteristics, 2005

Droughts will also become more become more common in some areas, like the one areas, like the one that gripped Guangdong Gua gdo gProvince in China in 2005 and dried 5up wells and ponds that had pserved for centuries.

Penguin Peril, 2000Islets off of Antarctica's Anvers Island have lost half of their nesting pairs of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) 

h hsince the 1970s. This rookery that has e isted for at least existed for at least 600 years must move because of rising because of rising temperatures and changing ice cover.changing ice cover.

Modern Atlantis, 2005The children of The children of Tuvalu, an island nation in the South nation in the South Pacific just 16.5 feet (five meters) above ( )sea level at its highest point, wait out an inundating high tide, more 

  ith  h common with each passing year, on their "kaupapa " an their  kaupapa,  an outdoor sleeping platform.platform.

GLACIAL SPEED:GLACIAL SPEED:

Greenland may get Greenland may get much of the scientific attention but it is attention but it is smaller glaciers such as the Columbia Glacier in the Columbia Glacier in Alaska pictured here that are already that are already contributing to sea level rise‐‐and will level rise‐‐and will continue to do so in futurefuture.

Chaney Glacier Terminus Chaney Glacier Terminus 

BEFORE: Chaney Glacier - 1911 AFTER: Chaney Glacier - 2005.

Portage Glacier, Alaska g ,Receded Five KM,Revealing a lake

Portage Glacier, 1914 Portage Glacier, 2005

Grinnell GlacierGrinnell Glacier

Before -Grinnell Glacier -1940 After - Grinnell Glacier - 2004

Shepard Glacier from Pyramid PeakShepard Glacier from Pyramid Peak

Before - Shepard Glacier- 1913 Before - Shepard Glacier- 2005 p p

Swiftcurrent GlacierSwiftcurrent Glacier

Before- Swiftcurrent Glacier -1900 After- Swiftcurrent Glacier -1998

Boulder GlacierBoulder Glacier

Before - Boulder Glacier -1932 After - Boulder Glacier - 2005

Greenland Ice Sheet

WATER POWERWater pressure cracked all the way through the nearly half‐mile thick Greenland ice sheet, leaving this fissure where a meltwater lake once rested.

Greenland’sGreenland s…………………….

On July 29, 2006, there was a roughly 11‐billion‐gallon  lake that stretched more than two square gallon  lake that stretched more than two square miles  and covered the western portion of Greenland's massive ice sheet. In the span of 16 G ee a d s ass e ce s eet t e spa o 6hours, it was gone. The reason: water pressure cracked through the more than half‐mile thick  ice, c ac ed t oug t e o e t a a e t c ce,draining the lake as its water rushed through the new funnel and gathered below the giant  ice sheet, g g ,raising it nearly four feet and moving it nearly three feet  to the north.

When did the When did the problem begin?problem begin?p gp g

The problems began when The problems began when human activities created & released more gases in the atmosphere than are necessaryatmosphere than are necessary.

B i t l l & il Burning natural gas, coal & oil raise the level of carbon dioxide raise the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere & accelerate the warming effect.

Anthropogenic CO2 ‐Many factories gproduce long‐lasting gases that contribute to the global warmingthe global warmingAES Drax in Yorkshire pumps p psmoke out of the tallest chimneys in the country Thethe country. The coal-fired power plant emits more pCO2 – 22.8 million tonnes annually –more than the 100more than the 100 least-industrialized nations combined.

Intensive farming leads to global warming• Some farming practices & use of fertilizers produce • Some farming practices & use of fertilizers produce gases that trap heat more than Carbon Dioxide.

• For instance, Nitrous Oxide, found in pesticides can retain 300 times more heat than CO2.

Forests are vital for absorbing & storing the world's carbon the world s carbon dioxide (CO2).

When trees are cut & burnt the damage is two-fold: the damage is two fold:

* The world's capacity to The world s capacity to absorb CO2 is reduced.

* Large amounts of stored carbon are released back carbon are released back into the atmosphere.

The oceans are like giant storage heatersg g

Oceans trap heat and absorb Carbon dioxide. They are like time-bombs, masking the real effects of the Carbon dioxide we have been releasing into the atmosphere. Constant disturbance of the sea currents is a threat awaiting to unleash.

Sources of  Greenhouse Gases 

Hockey Stick - Earth’s Temperature Variations:Past 1000 Years

IPCC report: http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

Correlation of CO2 Conc. to Temperature Rise

Source:  Pew Center for Global Climate Change

CO2

Temperature

impactsimpacts

2 Degrees C target

Source: Stern Review

Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in 2008 

Heat wave

L i i i

Heavy Snows

Low precipitation

Heavy Rains

D ht

Source:  UNEP Year Book, 2008

Extreme storm

Drought

Low temps

Global warming will kill BILLIONSBILLIONS this Century

Green house gases can stay in the atmosphere for hundreds and thousands of years.

Here are few DEADLIEST effects Here are few DEADLIEST effects of global warming..

Population growth accelerates Population growth accelerates global warming as more & more people use fuels for heat, transportation & manufacturingtransportation & manufacturing

A: Spread of infectious A: Spread of infectious disease

Global Warming leads to 150 000 deaths every year150,000 deaths every year

These numbers could double by 2020

As the globe warms, disease-carrying mosquitoes & rodents spread, infecting q p , gpeople. Outbreaks of Dengue fever, Malaria, Chikingunia, Allergies & Asthma have already started affecting daily lives.

More Intense Hurricanes are on the WayMore Intense Hurricanes are on the Way

The oceans are getting warmer stronger The oceans are getting warmer, stronger

hurricanes & calamities like tsunami are

getting more frequent.

“Sawing off the branch we are sitting on”“Sawing off the branch we are sitting on”Sawing off the branch we are sitting onSawing off the branch we are sitting on

Deforestation is Choking the Earth. 34 million acres of trees, the size of Italy, are cut each year.

Increased intensity of droughts & heat waves

Stronger Hurricanes

Katrina

320 Million trees corresponding to a biomass of 0 09 to 0 11320 Million trees , corresponding to a biomass of 0.09 to 0.11petagrams of CO2 were transferred form live to dead pools

Stresses on Coral Reefs

Coral Reef off Fiji

D: Economic consequencesqNatural calamities do billions of money in damage & disease outbreaks cost money to treat and control & disease outbreaks cost money to treat and control.

H: Food will cost as much as goldg

The threat to future food supplies

f li t h i h h il from climate change weighs heavily

on an expected world population

of 9 billion people by 2050.

G:We will lose drinking water

As sea levels rise, As sea levels rise,

sea water will invade

t l d t coastal groundwater,

making it salty

hence undrinkable.

Coastal Flooding

A NASA high-tech aerial survey shows that Global warming is melting 50 billion tons of ice in a year warming is melting 50 billion tons of ice in a year from the Greenland ice sheet.

This is increasing the likelihood of coastal flooding

aro nd the orldaround the world.

EPA Findings 2009Th  U S  EPA i  fi ll   k l d i  th t  The U.S. EPA is finally acknowledging that  greenhouse gases in the atmosphere contribute t   i   ll ti   hi h i  t      h lth to air pollution which in turn poses a health threat. This year, the EPA issued a finding that id tifi d  i   h    i  th  identified six greenhouse gases in the atmosphere “endanger the public health and 

lf   f  t  d f t   ti ”welfare of current and future generations.”The six GHGs are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride. In 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court ordered the EPA to conduct a thorough review of greenhouse gases pollution and air pollution.

EPA Findings 2009Th  fi di   k l d d th t th  hi h  t ti   f GHG  i  The finding acknowledged that the high concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere is the “unambiguous result of human emissions.” EPA also listed ten effects of climate change that are currently being g y gobserved and are projected to occur in the future:

The increased likelihood of more frequent and intense heat waves

More wildfires

Degraded air quality

Heavy downpours and flooding

Increased drought

Greater sea level rise

More intense storms

Harm to water resources

Harm to agriculture

Harm to wildlife and ecosystems

Greenhouse Gas EmissionGreenhouse Gas EmissionFarmed animals generate more greenhouse   gases than SUV  t t  t il  t i   d j b  j t   t SUVs, tractor trailers, trains, and jumbo jets put together. According to U N  scientists  the livestock sector is one According to U.N. scientists, the livestock sector is one of the largest sources of carbon dioxide and the single largest source of both methane and nitrous oxide gemissions.Nitrous oxide is about 300 times more potent as a global gwarming gas than carbon dioxide. The meat, egg, and dairy industries account for a 

f ld d dstaggering 65 percent of worldwide nitrous oxide emissions.

H E i h l ?H E i h l ?How Engineers can help?How Engineers can help?

Role of Engineers in Add i  Cli t  ChAddressing Climate Change

Engineering  associations have long been advocates for the engineering businessg gIt’s time to change that roleB id   h       i   i   d Bridge the gaps among society, science and politics

• Society requires strong coordination between politicians and engineers  to arrest between politicians and engineers  to arrest climate change

Why a Politician?y

Consulting Engineers Have

Knowledge

Consulting Engineers Lack

Avowed ambitiongCapabilitiesTechnical skills

Political sensibility

Strong imageOrganizationPosition 

Strong image

Communication skills

to improve living conditions in the world

to claim a leadership position for world,

But… 

pimproving our society

Why is a New Approach Needed?Why is a New Approach Needed?

• Globalization• We live in a “Risk Society”• Relationship among society  • Relationship among society, 

science and politics has changed

Who should be leading who?who?

Consulting Engineers Can Be g gThat Bridge 

BUT…

• Consulting engineers must act beyond their act beyond their commission

• Consulting engineers have • Consulting engineers have a responsibility to do so

HOW DO ENGINEERS BRIDGE THE GAP?

Winds of ChangeRenewable sources of energy, such as the wind farm pictured here in Rockville, Ill., offer hope of alternatives to the fossil fuels, such as coal, that emit the greenhouse gases, which cause climate change when burned.

HOW DO ENGINEERS BRIDGEDo a better job of defining theHOW DO ENGINEERS BRIDGE……………Do a better job of defining theproblemDevelop a technology roadmap forDevelop a technology roadmap forimproving sustainable performance Demand extraordinary levels of cooperation and collaborationcooperation and collaborationRevise engineering curriculums to d li   h   i   i d f   h  deliver the engineer required for the 21st centuryy

Do a Better Job of Defining gthe Problem

Climate change as a symptom of a flawed economic development modelNeed to understand the full breadth of the problems we’re dealing with

Current situationImpacts and urgenciesp g

Climate Change as a Symptom of a Fl d E i  D l t M d lFlawed Economic Development Model

•Our current model forOur current model for economic development is notdevelopment is not sustainable Gl b l Cli h•Global Climate change• Leading edge of many problems to come 

•Many are already here!here!

Need to Understand the Full Breadth of the Problems We’re Dealing With

• What are people andWhat are people and organizations doing that isn’t sustainable?

• What are the consequences of continuing to be non‐sustainable?

• How serious and urgent are h ?these consequences?

• What needs to be done to fi th ?fix them?

• What does it mean to be sustainable?sustainable?

Available Resources and Carrying Available Resources and Carrying Capacities:  Current Situation

Ecological overshoot

Ref:  Mathis Wackernagel, et. al., “Tracking the ecological overshoot of g , , g gthe human economy,” Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Jul 9;99(14):9266‐71 

Year

Climate Change Strategy

Currently available “wedges”

What it Means to be Sustainable

R bl    ( l i l)Renewable resources (ecological)Use < Regeneration

Non‐renewable resources (minerals fuels)(minerals, fuels)

Use < Rate of development of renewable substitutes

Pollution emissions

i i i iEmissions < Carrying capacity of the environment

Understand the Impacts and iUrgencies

Changes are occurring at a scope, scale and speed we never thought possible

Scope B i  f lt Scope: Being felt everywhere.  More serious for the poor, less resilient 

inationsScale: Happening at all scales (local, regional, ( , g ,global) and in all sectors.Speed: Happening faster than we ever imaginedthan we ever imagined

Climate change is the leading edge of this leading edge of this change

Develop a Technology Roadmap for Develop a Technology Roadmap for Improving Sustainable  Performance 

Response to climate change is most urgentAdaptation, mitigationp , g

Working at the project level isn’t sufficientEngineers  owe it to society to challenge unsound, g y g ,politically‐motivated initiatives.

The engineering community has that the requisite knowledge and experience

Knows what works or can workAlso technology gapsCan team with the scientific community to set research priorities  agendasresearch priorities, agendas

Path Forward1 6

Development and1.4

1.6

Projections

Development and application of more sustainable technologies

1.2

Number of Earths Used by Humanity

Target

of Earths

0.8

1.0

Number of Earths Available

Target pathway

Opportunities 

Num

ber 

0.6

for innovation

0.4

Today0.2

1980 2000 20201970 1990 2010 2030

Revise Engineering Curriculums to Deliver the Engineer Required for the 21st Centuryy

Provide meaning and context to engineering educationDevelopment of globally p g yaware and internationally responsible engineers, gstudents, and professionals.“Engineering Education 3.0”3 0

Mission Green Earth

Th      The more you plant –The greener it gets

Plant a tree today and stand  up to and stand  up to save mother earth

YES Climate change matters

because survival of this civilization matters !civilization matters !

THANKSTHANKS

“Engineering Education 3 0”Engineering Education 3.01 0 Age of attrition1.0 Age of attrition

Solving engineering puzzles out of context

f l kEngineering is not for slackers!

2.0 Age of competitionPuzzles plus practicumPuzzles plus practicumDesign contests, mostly single discipline focused Engineering can be fun!Engineering can be fun!

3.0 Age of contributionPuzzles in contextHow engineering contributes to quality of lifeEngineering has significance!Engineering has significance!