glgi: wireless, voip

GLGi: Wireless, VOIP & Mobile Operator Updates Eric Lagier

Director Business DevelopmentSkype

© 2007 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

Council Member Biography

Eric Lagier is the Director of Business Development Mobile at Skype, a global leader in VOIP communications. He is responsible for developing commercial partnerships with mobile operators, and managing relationships with mobile device manufacturers that produce Skype certified phones and accessories including Nokia, and AMOI. He was also responsible for the Skypephone launch with Hutchison 3. Previously, he was the Director-Wireless and Voice Division at Oracle. He has also held positions at TDC Mobil, where he was responsible for the mobile internet division.


Topics

How can mobile operators prevent cannibalization of revenues?

What is the future of roaming, international call charges, and interconnect?

Will it be convergence or a substitution: GSM vs. Wifi?

What are the new business models as the internet goes mobile?


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Overview

Internet meets the mobile world Change of guard in the value chain Benefits working with an Internet brand The War of Titans – Going Mobile The failure of the US MVNO’s Mobile Advertising Voip going mainstream The Wifi opportunity Wimax heats up the competition Conclusions

Internet meets the mobile world

Mobile Per minute/MB/text Circuit switched Walled garden Retail Stores “Old school” Marketing Customer support

Internet Flat rate All IP Unlimited choice Online Sales Viral marketing Internet Support

Change of Guard

Content/Services

Platform Devices Access

OEM’s

WirelessCarriers

IT/Internet Brands

What phone would you buy?

Content/Services


Branded Phone build around

services

Phone build around open

Source platformFeature Phone

Operator Branded Phone

The War of Titans – Going Mobile

Search Maps Mail/Calendar

VOIP /Chat

Media News/Sports/Finance

Social network

Microsoft Search Local Search

Hotmail Messenger Video/Spaces

MSN Mobile Spaces

Yahoo Search Local Mail Messenger Video/Flickr

YahooGo! 360’

Google Search Maps Gmail Gtalk YouTube/Picasa

News Orkut/Blogger/Zingku

Apple Search Google Maps

Mail - Itunes/YouTube/Webcallery

Widgets Facebook/.Groups

Nokia Ovi Search/(Visual)

Navtec/Gate5

Intellisync - Twango/LoudEye

- -

Benefits Working with an Internet Brand

Differentiate offering from competitors Grow customer base by tapping into

communities of millions Increase spending on mobile broadband Create stickiness Reduce Subscriber acquisition costs

OEM Market Share Q207

Nokia 36%

Samsung 14%

Motorola14%

Sony Ericsson 9%

LG Electronics6%

Others21%

The old kids on the block

Content/Services


OEM’s

Mobile Advertising – the Future business model It’s the “Metro” newspaper coming to Mobile – potential to disrupt the

entire industry offering free data and calls Nearly all major Operators running trials, as a preventive measure to

counter new competitors. Blyk

first UK based commercially launch ad sponsored mobile network Co-founded by former Nokia President Pekka Ala-Pietilä Ad sponsored mobile network for 16-24 year olds. Blyk charges brands for sending messages to users, and gives the users

the money back in the form of free texts and minutes. Users get 217 texts and 43 minutes free every month, and up to 6 MMS

messages a day from selected brands . No contract and top up will cost just 10p per text or 15p per minute.

Google expands AdWords to include Mobile channel, which will be a cornerstone for its mobile activities

Nokia waking up and acquire EnPocket to provide Platform to operators and OVI.

The failure of the US MVNO’s

Goodbye ESPN, Disney Mobile, AMP’d US mobile market exceeding 80%

penetration 3 Dominant players and a few challengers In a saturated market the game is to steel

subscribers MVNO being killed by subscriber acquisition

costs of going from 350$ to 450$ The cure?

Internet brands MVNE Sonopia

Mobile Voip Status

Still early stage with early adopters Market very fragmented with many vendors Carriers using Voip for backhaul not last mile Issues:

Availability of wifi phones Price Plans Standards Phone integration CPU/Battery Coverage/Bandwidth/concurrent users per base

station/latency Emergency calls, legal intercept

Effect of MobileVoip on Industry

Users expectations changing: ‘Unlimited’ Transparent pricing Rich experience (presence) Free calls over Wi-Fi Lower roaming/international call costs

The Wifi opportunity

Away Mobile

Home mobile

Home fixed

Voice minutes by location

33%

11%

56%

WiFi

Mobile

USA example

UMA

Extended coverage Better network capacity Replacing fixed line÷ Limited battery÷ Not intuitive (yet)÷ Price uncertainty

Fon

Worlds largest Wifi provider with more than 190,000 hotspots Fon's 'social routing' business plan features Aliens, Linus' and

Bills. Linus users let other Fon subscribers access the internet over their

wifi connection in exchange for free access on any other Fon hotspot around the world.

Bills charge for access at their hotspots and share the revenues with Fon,

Aliens are roaming users that pay to access Fon hotspots. 500k users Recently done deals with BT to allow access for 3million

broadband customers Funded by Google, Skype, Index Ventures, Sequoia Capital

Wimax heats up the competition

Clearwire up and running reporting 258K customers, $32 ARPU, and $343 in customer acquisition costs.

Sprint Nextel’s Xohm deploying WiMAX network reaching 100 million people by year end 2008.

Commercial launch in a number of U.S. cities beginning the second quarter of 2008

Nokia with Internet tablet devices and PC manufacturers Acer, Asus, Lenovo, Panasonic and Toshiba signing up for WIMAX

Strong push by Intel Will initially be a DSL killer, but may be challenged by

3GLTE offering wider mobility.

Conclusions

Change in command in the mobile value chain

Customer is King Content & Services With Internet comes Advertising Wifi and Wimax networks offers

alternatives

Area’s to follow

Mobile Advertising UMA MVNO Femtocells/Picocells MVNE SAC 700mhz Auctions

Appendix

US Market

Access competition

GSM/WCDMA

WIMAX

WiFI

glgi: wireless, voip

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